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THESIS MAPPING OF POSSIBLE CORRIDORS FOR JAVAN LEOPARD (Panthera pardus ssp. melas) BETWEEN GUNUNG MERAPI AND GUNUNG MERBABU NATIONAL PARKS, INDONESIA Thesis submitted to the Double Degree M.Sc. Programme, Gadjah Mada University and Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, University of Twente in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Science in Geo-Information for Spatial Planning and Disaster Risk Management By: Andhika Chandra Ariyanto UGM: 13/357438/PMU/08070 ITC: s6013570 Supervisor: 1. Prof. Dr. Hartono, DEA., DESS. (UGM) 2. Dr. A.G. (Bert) Toxopeus (ITC) GRADUATE SCHOOL GADJAH MADA UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF GEO-INFORMATION AND EARTH OBSERVATION UNIVERSITY OF TWENTE 2015 Mapping of Possible Corridors for Javan Leopard (Panthera pardus ssp. melas) between Gunung Merapi and Gunung Merbabu National Parks, Indonesia DISCLAIMER This document describes work undertaken as part of a programme of study at the Double Degree International Programme of Geo-Information for Spatial Planning and Disaster Risk Management, a Joint Education Programme between Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, University of Twente, the Netherlands and Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia. All views and options therein remain the sole responsibility of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of the institute. Author, Andhika Chandra Ariyanto i Mapping of Possible Corridors for Javan Leopard (Panthera pardus ssp. melas) between Gunung Merapi and Gunung Merbabu National Parks, Indonesia ABSTRACT Javan Leopard (Panthera pardus spp. melas) as the remain big cat species in Java Island after the extinction of Javan Tiger in 1980s has been detected occupying the area of Gunung Merapi and Gunung Merbabu National Parks. Its population is threatened by habitat loss, fragmentation habitat, volcanic and wildfire hazard. Unfortunately, the distribution of this species have not been identified. In addition, since those habitats are separated by a main road and highly populated settlements, the research about corridors for the leopards also have not been conducted yet. Considering the facts above, the main objective of this research is to predict and map the possible corridor for Javan Leopard between Gunung Merapi and Gunung Merbabu NPs landscape by using remote sensing and GIS approach. In order to achieve that, Species Distribution Modelling (MaxEnt) was demonstrated to predict the leopards’ distribution and Least Cost Path was applied to figure out the possible paths which connect those two NPs. By using presence-only data of Javan Leopard occurrences, 16 observation points alongside several environmental variables which consist of prey, landcover, NDVI, distance to river, settlement, road/path, elevation, slope, rainfall (annual, maximum, minimum), temperature (maximum, minimum) were deployed into MaxEnt programme. Remotely sensed imagery of Landsat 8 and ArcGIS software were used to the analysis process. The results showed that the total presence of leopards’ distribution was 4,233 ha while 70% of it located within the area of NPs. Landcover, prey distribution, rainfall (maximum and minimum), minimum temperature and NDVI become the most important variables in this model. Meanwhile, least cost path revealed the most likely possible corridor in 6 km route. It characterized by relatively secure track from settlement areas and enough cover along the route. Applying minimum width for strip corridor (1,000 feet), this possible path intersected 6 ha of settlement, 18 ha of farm and 102 ha of agriculture areas of Boyolali District. Become the matrix for Merapi-Merbabu landscape, it plays an important role in creating a corridor to connect those national parks. Moreover, either natural hazards or isolated population issues are plausible to be addressed by developing the corridor. Keywords: Javan Leopard, Gunung Merapi NP, Gunung Merbabu NP, Species Distribution Modelling, MaxEnt, Least Cost Path, Corridor ii Mapping of Possible Corridors for Javan Leopard (Panthera pardus ssp. melas) between Gunung Merapi and Gunung Merbabu National Parks, Indonesia ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS All the praises and thanks be to Allah SWT, the Lord of the ‘Alamin, as His blesses so I can finish my MSc research. I also would like to express my thanks to all who have supported me in pursuing Master degree. To my first supervisor Prof. Dr. Hartono, DEA., DESS for his outstanding guidance to accomplish this thesis and to my second supervisor Dr. A.G. (Bert) Toxopeus for his brilliant idea and insight for my research and for introducing me to the magnificent of MaxEnt. To all ITC members of stuff for their assistance during the MSc course, thanks to Prof. Dr. V.G. Jetten and Dr. H.M.A. (Harald) van der Werff for the critics and suggestions to my thesis proposal, Ir. B.G.C.M. Krol for his warm greetings, his solutions for any problems and all his kindness during my stay in Enschede, Dr. Norman Kerle for the precious peer to peer review session, David G. Rossiter for his wise suggestions related to my research and Dr. Thomas Groen who introduces me to species distribution modelling field. To GMU board: Prof. Dr. H.A. Sudibyakto, M.S., Prof. Dr.rer.nat. Junun Sartohadi, Msc for their trust and support for me in completing this research, Mbak Indri and Mas Wawan who have assisted me along this course. To BAPPENAS and NESO who have given this valuable opportunity for me to join this MSc course in GMU and ITC. To Kerinci Seblat National Park authority as its permit and help for me to level up my degree. I also would like to express my thanks to Gunung Merapi NP authority: Director of GMNP (Ir. Edy Sutiyarto), Mas Nurpana Sulaksono, Mas Asep Nia, Mbak Widya, Pak Suharyana and his member of stuff in Resort-Cangkringan (Ari Nurwijayanto, Nur Anifah, Nurul Hikamiyah, Siswanto), Mas Bangun, Pak Ngatijo, and to Gunung Merbabu NP authority: Director of GMbNP (Ir. Wisnu Wibowo, MM), Pak San Andre Jatmiko, Mas Saeful, Mbak Krtistina Dewi, Jarot Wahyudi, Pak Amat, Astekita Ardi, Fadel and Pak Jupri for their supports during my research period. My gratitude also goes to the members of stuff of Boyolali District especially Pak Kusumo and Bu Diana for the spatial planning data. To Geo-Info batch 9 (Bappenasers): Uda Aththaar, Mas Budi, Mbak Novia, Uda Febri, Kusnadi, Pipit, Ardhi, Imam and my partner in crime Arief thanks for the valuable moment during EAP and MSc course. The other Geo-info batch 9: Listyo, Tiwi, Eko, Muslimin, Hogy, Taufik, Mbak Angga, Dwi, Asti, Bayu, Azmi, Dewa, Novita, Irene and Ahdi thanks for this friendship. My special thanks also goes to Hero Marhaento, Ayun Windyoningrum, Subyantoro Tri Pradopo, Sa’duddin for the fruitful discussions on my thesis topic and Eddy Dwi Atmaja for the leopard data. For the remote discussion pertaining Javan Leopard, many thanks to Didik Raharyono, Anton Ario, Hariyawan A Wahyudi, Oki Hadian, Ali Imron and Agung Nugroho. To ITC mates, the MaxEnt’ers: Xuan, Vella and Nyasha, I really appreciate for their assistance in directing me how to deal with MaxEnt. Finally, my deep appreciation to my parents for their prayers, my brother and sister for their supports, and the most importantly to my better half Sarah Arlina and my little princes Gendhis Syafiqa Arliyanto for their affections. Yogyakarta, April 2015 Andhika Chandra Ariyanto iii Mapping of Possible Corridors for Javan Leopard (Panthera pardus ssp. melas) between Gunung Merapi and Gunung Merbabu National Parks, Indonesia TABLE OF CONTENTS DISCLAIMER ..................................................................................................................... i ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................... iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................... iv LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. vi LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... vii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .......................................................................................... viii 1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Background ......................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1. Javan Leopard (Panthera pardus ssp. melas) ............................................. 1 1.1.2. Habitat Conservation .................................................................................. 3 1.2. Problem Statement .............................................................................................. 4 1.3. Research Objectives ............................................................................................ 6 1.4. Research Questions ............................................................................................. 6 1.5. Research Assumption and Limitation ................................................................. 7 2. LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................... 8 2.1. Species Distribution Modelling .......................................................................... 8 2.2. Volcanic Hazard
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