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A Look to the Future: Russia's Instruments of National Power

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A Look to the Future: Russia's Instruments of National Power A LOOK TO THE FUTURE: RUSSIA’S INSTRUMENTS OF NATIONAL POWER TEEMU KILPELÄINEN, STEPHEN MURPHY, JOSH POWERS, MICHAEL WELCH Teemu Kilpeläinen on majuri ja palvelee Ilmavoimien Esikunnan Operatiivisella osastolla Ilmavoimien ilmatorjuntapäällikkönä. Stephen Murphy on everstiluutnantti ja palvelee USA:n Joint Spectrum Center’issä. Josh Powers on komentajakapteeni ja palvelee USA:n Joint Staff’ssä. Michael Welch on majuri ja palvelee USAFRICOM’issa. TIIVISTELMÄ Terrorismin vastainen toiminta ja Kauko- mational, Military and Economic (DIME)). idän kasvanut merkitys ovat korostuneet Yhdysvalloissa Venäjän toimia pidetään pää- Yhdysvaltojen harjoittamassa politiikassa sääntöisesti pyrkimyksenä palauttaa entinen kuluneen vuosikymmenen aikana. Samal- suurvalta-asema takaisin. Tätä ei pidetä to- la asevoimien operatiivinen ja strateginen dennäköisenä, koska Venäjällä on arvioiden ajattelu on siirtynyt pois perinteisestä kyl- mukaan monenlaisia ja jopa ylitsepääsemät- män sodan ajan uhkamallista. Venäjän poli- tömiä haasteita voitettavanaan muun muas- tiikan muutokset ja aktiivinen sotilaallinen sa talouden saralla. On todennäköistä, että toiminta muun muassa Ukrainassa ovat vas- Venäjä säilyy tulevaisuudessa yrityksistään ta viime aikoina havahduttaneet amerikka- huolimatta ainoastaan alueellisena voima- laiset arvioimaan Venäjän pyrkimyksiä aivan tekijänä. uudessa valossa. Artikkeli on majuri Teemu Kilpeläisen Tässä artikkelissa arvioidaan pääosin johtaman työryhmän laatima opinnäytetyö ame rikkalaisiin lähteisiin perustuen Venäjän Yhdysvaltain Joint Forces Staff Collegessa kansallisia toimintamahdollisuuksia ja -kyky- (JFSC) alkukesällä 2015. Työn ohjaajana oli jä diplomatian, informaation, asevoimien ja Commander Michael Bissell (US Navy). talouden näkökulmista (Diplomatic, Infor- 20 INTRODUCTION national power at the highest levels of strategic guidance, e.g., the Presidential The collapse of the Soviet Union ushered National Security Strategy. By analyzing in a new era of hope and possibility. The Russia’s current and recent employment West won the ideological battle contained of their DIME powers this paper will in the Cold War and democracy and speculate on Russia’s future. Russia’s capitalism seemed poised to sweep across strategic success will depend, to a great Russia and Eastern Europe. The era extent, on whether Russian leadership would bring a new sense of commitment decides to increase their integration into to freedom and open societies. Old the international system and mitigate enemies would now meet on the world the threat of future armed conflict. At stage as equal partners in the cause of this point, Russia does not seem eager freedom, with one providing a cautionary to integrate into an international system tale about the woes of oppressive on the West’s terms. Ironically, fully government. The reality, however, of the integrating into this system could spell a post Soviet space has been anything but return to superpower status. As a result, hopeful. Russian integration into a world Russia will likely have to settle for the based on European ideas and on the more modest role of a leading regional West’s terms has been problematic. Russia power in Eurasia. continues to struggle with its post Soviet Union identity and President Putin’s DIPLOMACY motives continue to confound the West. H.L. Menkin1 noted that “For every Russia’s diplomatic strategy is shaped complex problem there is an answer that by how it views the outside world and is clear, simple, and wrong” (Menkin). is heavily reliant on one man, Vladimir While it is difficult to predict the future, Putin. To truly understand Putin and especially on the complex and grand his motives one must understand the scale of geo-political relationships, it conditions inside Russia after the collapse is not impossible. Studying facts and of the Soviet Union that led to his rise to professional speculation about Russia’s power as well as how he used the other present can help in predicting the ways instruments of national power to secure they may use their elements of national and maintain his power base. power. The instruments of national power During Boris Yeltsin’s presidency, are Diplomatic, Informational, Military, Russia enacted a series of economic and Economic (DIME). DIME is the reforms designed to introduce free market method used to describe the tool set of concepts, diversify the economy, and 1 H.L. Menkin was an American satirist, critic, philosopher, and writer known for his commentaries on society and culture. 21 develop the private sector. Yeltsin elected became the foundation of his political to forgo a phased attempt at establishing strategy. As things got better on the home a free market economy. The attempted front, Putin began to wonder how to reforms were aggressive in light of expand his vision globally. The question Russia’s historical dependence on a state facing Putin became, “How do I balance a controlled economy. The results were vision where the rule of law does not truly uncontrolled inflation, devaluation of the exist against avoiding provoking the West ruble, and the rise of an extremely wealthy (Frum)?” oligarchy. The marked rise in domestic The answer to this question is, instability led to increased government ultimately, Putin didn’t need to balance control and questions from the West his vision at all. In 2008, Russia about whether post Soviet Russia was invaded Georgia and began a long term willing to join the post Cold War world. occupation of breakaway republics, South Additionally, Russia attempted to join Ossetia and Abkhazia. Putin wondered, the World Trade Organization and G8 “Would the West tolerate a greater power as way to develop closer ties to the West. carving up smaller nations (Frum)?” The Russia believed the West unfairly and answer, sadly, was yes. Russia ultimately unnecessarily contested its membership did not face significant punishment from by withholding access in exchange for the West. Sanctions imposed by the domestic reform. From the Russian point Bush administration were lifted shortly of view, the West treated Russia with thereafter by the Obama administration. great skepticism and never fully accepted Putin’s main takeaway was that or all their membership on the world stage. In of the West’s grand talk the strong still addition, economic reforms imposed ultimately dictate to the weak (Zongyou). on the Western model led to domestic In light of this important lesson, instability, an economic downturn and Putin’s diplomatic vision is built on a loss of face on the international stage three pillars, security (primarily through (Zongyou). As a result, Russia remained annexing vulnerable territory), a Eurasian content to distance itself from the West Union and a Russo-Orthodox identity and reestablish regional dominance as an (McKew). Putin’s vision is oversimplified entree to superpower status. by attempting to boil it down to Vladimir Putin rose to power amidst recapturing Soviet glory. Putin states, this instability and skepticism. His first “We are not talking about recreating the presidency focused on reestablishing USSR in one form or another. It would be domestic security. He began by naive to try to restore or copy that which improving the standard of living and remains in the past, but close integration continued to expand his power by based on new values and a political and promoting nationalism and, where that economic foundation is imperative failed, through intimidation (Frum). (Elder).” His vision is more accurately His popularity soared in Russia and this described as Russian exceptionalism. 22 Putin adds, “We received a big legacy Putin’s vision is not without from the Soviet Union – infrastructure, weakness and contradiction. As Maxim current industrial specialization, and a Trudolyubov stated in the New York common linguistic, scientific and cultural Times, “Mr. Putin has succeeded in space. To use this resource together for (ending internal disarray), but his our development is in our common agenda has been achieved through interest (Elder).” negative measures . making the press With true acceptance and access to the compliant, Parliament acquiescent, the West not available on anything other than courts obeisant and business neutralized terms dictated by the United States and as a political actor (Trudolyubov).” He her European allies, Putin formulated a further adds, “Can a leader whose more pragmatic approach around his actions are so negative at home become a idea of exceptionalism. This consists of successful player in international politics a regional focus highlighted by closer (Trudolyubov)?” The episode in Ukraine ties to the east and mending fences with and the Crimea provides the best example old partners (Xinhua). Putin’s approach for the contradictions in the renewed could be quite attractive to ex-Soviet Russian regional approach. If Russia’s goal states and others looking to expand is to promote nationalism by annexing opportunity, but frustrated by the bar territory then Russia should continue to for entry imposed by the West. Annexing pressure Ukraine to abandon its claims the Crimea not only provided a security to the Crimea. Russian or freedom fighter barrier to the West and ensures access deaths against the Ukrainian military to the Black Sea for the Black Sea Fleet, could also weaken nationalist viewpoints it also dramatically increased Putin’s in annexed territories. If Russia’s goal is popularity at home. Putin’s vision for to establish a Eurasian Union then it a Eurasian
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