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Berenberg Thematics Berenberg Thematics Esports: a game-changer 31 January 2018 Oyvind Bjerke Analyst +44 20 3753 3082 [email protected] Robert Berg Analyst +44 20 3465 2680 [email protected] Saliha Shariff Analyst +44 20 3753 3097 [email protected] Nick Anderson Analyst +44 20 3207 7838 [email protected] Asad Farid, CFA Analyst +44 20 3207 7932 [email protected] Chris Armstrong Specialist Sales +44 20 3207 7809 [email protected] ATLAS ALPHA • THOUGHT LEADERSHIP • ACCESS • SERVICE Berenberg Thematics What is Berenberg Thematics? Under our Thematics brand, we will focus on big, longer-term themes --- specifically, disruptive technologies, demographics and corporate governance issues --- which we feel investors should be looking at. Within each note, we will highlight trends and issues that we believe to be of interest to investors, and the effect of these on sectors and stocks which we view as beneficiaries or at risk from the specific theme. The companies that we will consider will include those already under coverage, those not covered, and also relevant privately-owned businesses, which we believe will be affected. THE TEAM Oyvind Bjerke joined Berenberg in November 2016 as part of the Thematics team. He previously worked as a cost controller in the oil service company Technip. Oyvind graduated with a first-class MA degree from the University of Edinburgh and holds an MSc in Behavioural Finance with distinction from the Warwick Business School. Robert Berg joined the Berenberg Media research team in March 2013. Prior to this, he spent over three years at Nomura as an analyst covering the cable and satellite sectors. He is a qualified chartered accountant (ACA) and began his career at KPMG, where he spent four years serving TMT clients in both transaction services and restructuring. Saliha Shariff joined Berenberg in 2016 on the graduate scheme. After completing the programme, she joined the Thematics team in October 2017. Saliha graduated from the University of Cambridge with a BA (Hons) in Economics, and is a CFA Level II candidate. Nick And erson joined the Thematics team in 2016 having previously built up and led the banks team; he joined Berenberg in 2010. Nick has more than 20 years’ experience as a top- ranked sell-side equity analyst including spells as co-head of the Lehman Brothers European banks team and as a transport analyst at both Lehman Brothers and HSBC James Capel. In addition, he has worked as a management consultant at McKinsey. Nick has degrees in economics and management studies from the University of Cambridge and in wine production from the University of Brighton. Asad Farid has been working at Berenberg for the past four years. His previous focus was on the oil and gas sector where he was the lead analyst for oil field services. Before joining Berenberg, he worked as an economist and banking analyst at AKD Securities and has eight years of sell-side research experience. Asad is an MBA from University of Cambridge and is a CFA charter holder. As apart of his MBA programme, Asad completed internships at Google and with Berenberg's Technology Hardware team. Chris Armstrong has 20 years of experience on both the buy-side (as an analyst and portfolio manager) and on the sell-side, most recently as industrial specialist sales. Chris joined Berenberg as a Swiss equity salesman in 2006, before specialising in industrials in 2009. He has previously been a portfolio manager/analyst at Axa Framlington, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and NatWest, and holds a BA in Economics from Durham University. For our disclosures in respect of Article 20 of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation – MAR) and our disclaimer please see the end of this document. Please note that the use of this research report is subject to the conditions and restrictions set forth in the disclosures and the disclaimer at the end of this document. Berenberg Thematics Table of contents Esports: a game-changer 4 Executive summary 5 The rise of esports 13 Esports: driving gaming demand 22 Mobile esports: a catalyst for mobile gaming? 34 Esports economics: a USD20bn market by 2025 37 Gaming companies: ultimate beneficiaries of esports 48 Esports team investment: a gamble 68 Tech giants: battling for eyeballs 73 Media companies: trying to stay relevant 77 PC hardware companies: an esports boost 89 Western telcos: marketing through esports 100 Esports betting: bookmakers flooding in 102 Esports risks 107 Appendix 108 3 Berenberg Thematics Esports: a game-changer ● Esports is professional video gaming watched by an audience on TV, online or in stadiums, similar to how people consume traditional sports. In 2017, an estimated 385m people watched esports, having had a 24% CAGR since 2014. By 2025, we expect this viewership to rise to c850m and for esports to be a USD20bn industry. In 10-20 years’ time it could potentially rival the traditional sports industry. The main beneficiaries of esports will be the video gaming companies due to marketing and monetisation opportunities. Other winners include PC hardware companies, tech giants, telcos and gambling companies, as esports acts as a catalyst for their goods and services. ● Esports’ economic explosion: In 2017, the esports industry generated revenues of only cUSD0.7bn, largely due to it being under-monetised at USD1.8 per fan, compared to USD54 for traditional sports. We forecast that by 2025, esports will generate USD24 per fan, which equates to a USD20bn market. This is conservative compared to some estimates. The Chinese tech giant Tencent (cUSD570bn market cap), which currently dominates the esports space, believes the esports market in China alone will be worth at least USD15bn by 2022, approximately the size of the NFL. This is in line with our bull case of USD40bn globally by 2025. ● Drivers of revenue growth: Esports revenues have had a 46% CAGR since 2015, and we believe this will continue. This will be largely driven by the sale of media rights to companies such as Twitch, a game streaming platform with 100m users that was bought by Amazon in 2014 for USD842m. Other companies buying media rights include Facebook and Disney. Additionally, there has been an expansion in companies creating and selling esports content, such as Time Warner, Modern Times Group and Alibaba. Furthermore, sponsorship deals are growing rapidly, with more than 600 new deals between 2016 to mid-2017 from brands such as Mercedes and Visa, which are eager to reach the millennial esports demographic. ● Catalyst avalanche: Due to its popularity in Asia, esports will now be an official event at the 2022 Asian Games, with a strong possibility for it to become an Olympic sport in 2024. As a result, Japan, the sleeping esports giant, is reconsidering its regulations so that it, too, can compete on the world stage and become the next great esports nation. Additionally, a range of companies now want to make their brands synonymous with the esports movement, with Russian internet company Mail.Ru purchasing an esports team for USD100m and telecoms company Telefónica building an esports centre for its seven teams. ● Sector impact: Gaming companies that are able to create successful esports will be the greatest beneficiaries of the trend. This is because they own the games and will therefore be in the best position to monetise the esports ecosystems. Esports will also boost the economic value of their games by driving user engagement. Meanwhile, esports will drive demand for the gaming products of PC hardware companies and tech giants will benefit as esports broadcasting will strengthen their ecosystems. Telcos will benefit to some extent as esports generates demand for high-speed internet, but media companies will likely be losers in the long run as TV will not be the primary medium for esports viewing. Finally, gambling companies will also potentially benefit as demand for esports betting grows. ● Gaming companies: Tencent (n/r), Activision Blizzard (n/r), Ubisoft (Buy), Take Two (n/r), Keywords Studios (Buy), Sea (n/r). ● Tech giants: Amazon (n/r), Facebook (n/r), Alphabet (n/r), Alibaba (n/r). ● Media companies: Time Warner (n/r), Modern Times Group (n/r), Disney (n/r). ● PC hardware companies: Intel (n/r), Nvidia (n/r), Razer (n/r), Logitech(n/r). ● Other: Telefónica (Buy), Madison Square Garden (n/r), William Hill (Hold). 31 January 2018 Oyvind Bjerke Robert Berg Nick Anderson Chris Armstrong Analyst Analyst Analyst Specialist Sales +44 20 3753 3082 +44 20 3465 2680 +44 20 3207 7838 +44 20 3207 7809 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Berenberg Thematics Executive summary Explosive growth in viewership In recent years, growth in esports viewership has been extremely rapid. In 2017, it was estimated that there were 385m esports viewers and we expect this to grow to 850m by 2025. Although there are many factors that are contributing to this growth, the core reason is clear. Currently, there are c2.2bn gamers globally, and many of the games played are competitive in nature. And just as with traditional sports, where people enjoy watching the best teams compete, support their favourite team and want to be part of a community, these same human instincts apply to esports. And just as with sports, when there are large and passionate audiences there are also significant commercial opportunities. Figure 1: Rapid esports viewership growth – 850m viewers by 2025 900 850 Casuals Enthusiasts 800 10% CAGR 700 425 600 24% CAGR 500 385 400 Viewers Viewers Viewers Viewers (millions) (millions) (millions) (millions) 323 300 235 194 204 161 425 200 115 114 100 162 191 90 120 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2025E Source: Newzoo , Berenberg estimates Figure 2: League of Legends World Championship 2014 – Seoul, South Korea (it’s real) Source: https://euw.leagueoflegends.com/sites/default/files/styles/scale_xlarge/public/upload/photo -1_0.jpg?itok=xCcRr97F 5 Berenberg Thematics Esports: people watching other people play video games Just like people enjoy watching professionals play football, people enjoy watching professionals play esports.
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