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Wednesday, May 8, 2019 Analysis

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Images show construction on China’s aircraft carrier Supporters of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu shout anti-government slogans as they take part in a against the re-run of Istanbul mayoral election in Istanbul. —AFP onstruction of China’s first full-sized aircraft carrier is well under way, according to satellite images obtained and analyzed by a US think tank.C The images from April, provided to by Is Erdogan taking a risk with vote re-run? the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, reveal considerable recent ollowing weeks of speculation, Turkey’s top elec- tion at the ballot box, and Istanbul prosecutors have Bilkent University. Even if Yildirim wins, it will be “a activity during the last six months on a large vessel at tion body has ordered a re-run of Istanbul’s may- launched multiple probes into how the vote was han- pyrrhic victory, since Imamoglu has already become a the Jiangnan shipyard outside Shanghai. Foral election, after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan dled. Some election officials were accused of links to the household name and emerged as the opposition’s uni- China has not formally confirmed it is building a alleged widespread fraud in the conduct of the vote. The group blamed for an attempted coup in 2016. “We saw fying candidate,” he said. third carrier, despite recent hints in state media, and main opposition party’s candidate, the softly spoken yet that 15,000 AKP voters had their will taken away,” Some of the president’s allies have recognized the the timing and extent of its carrier program remain passionate Ekrem Imamoglu, had defeated Erdogan loy- Erdogan said yesterday. The election board’s decision danger. “With our own hands, we have given Ekrem state secrets. The Pentagon said last week that work alist Binali Yildirim by a narrow margin in the original was the “best step” for the country, he added. Imamoglu the popularity that he did not even obtain by had begun, but no images have emerged until now. March 31 vote. But Erdogan’s Justice and Development his own efforts,” said former parliament speaker Bulent Both Asian and Western militaries, and regional secu- Party (AKP) refused to accept the result and a new vote Will the AKP win this time? Arinc this week. Meanwhile, the economy remains just rity analysts, are seeking information on the carrier, will now be held on June 23. Analysts say Erdogan’s Imamoglu defeated Yildirim, a former prime minister as troubled as it was in March. High unemployment, which is expected to be China’s first large, modern move is risky, with the opposition galvanized and voters and close Erdogan ally, by only around 13,000 votes. inflation at nearly 20 percent, and the first recession in a platform capable of leading a full range of strike still hurting from a prolonged economic downturn. He has the support of opposition and Kurdish parties, decade have eroded the perception of Erdogan and his group operations. but the AKP has a formidable machine for bringing out party’s capacity for strong economic management. The effort to build a large, locally designed carrier is seen as a core part of China’s extensive military Why Erdogan want re-run the vote, particularly in more conservative and religious modernization drive. A series of recent Reuters Erdogan once said winning Istanbul - Turkey’s eco- neighborhoods. Nonetheless, the AKP still lost the How it affects Turkey Special Reports showed how that effort is challeng- nomic powerhouse with 15 million residents — was like March 31 election, despite relentless televised speeches This is the first time since the AKP came to power in ing decades of US strategic superiority in East Asia. winning the entire country. For Erdogan and his allies, by Erdogan, including 14 rallies in 48 hours across 2002 that it has called for a vote to be re-run. But it is The CSIS images show a bow section that appears to say analysts, the city’s wealth makes it worth risking Istanbul in the final days before the vote. not dissimilar to the situation in the June 2015 general end with a flat 30-metre front and a separate hull Turkey’s reputation overseas to hold on to the city, Professor Erdogan (no relation to the president) election, when the party lost its overall majority in par- section 41 meters wide, with gantry cranes looming which they and their predecessors have ruled for 25 said the two sides were currently neck-and-neck, but liament and was unable to form a coalition. On that overhead. years. “The municipality controls very large financial that the replay could damage the ruling party’s legiti- occasion, Erdogan ordered fresh elections for just a few That suggests a vessel, which China has dubbed resources, which are channeled to AKP supporters,” macy. “Half the citizens of Istanbul believe that months later - a gamble that paid off, with the party Type 002, somewhat smaller than 100,000-tonne US Emre Erdogan, professor of political science at Istanbul Imamoglu is the elected mayor and there was no elec- regaining its majority. But this time, Esen said, by carriers but larger than France’s 42,500-tonne Bilgi University, told AFP. The loss of Istanbul could toral fraud,” he said. The AKP’s decision to force a re- annulling a result that many considered legitimate, , analysts say. Fabrication halls the weaken the party machine, he added. run was an act of desperation, added Berk Esen, assis- Erdogan has “removed the last vestiges of legitimacy of size of several soccer pitches have been built nearby, The president claims there was widespread corrup- tant professor of international relations at Ankara’s the Turkish electoral system”. —AFP and work appears to be continuing on a floodable basin, possibly to float the finished hull into the near- by Yangtze River estuary. “While details regarding the Type 002 are limited, Din in northern , epicenter of the what is observable at Jiangnan is consistent with Timeline in case crackdown against stateless Rohingya. Reuters what is expected for the People’s Liberation Army had been investigating in the area. In January Navy’s third aircraft carrier,” said the CSIS’ 2018, ’s army says security forces ChinaPower analysis, published on its website yester- against Reuters killed 10 Rohingya men at Inn Din, admitting day. CSIS analyst Matthew Funaiole told Reuters that for the first time extra-judicial killings by its images taken late last year were inconclusive, but journalists forces against the Rohingya during the 2017 that now the work under way is clear. crackdown. Seven soldiers are later charged “From what we can see there has been a lot of euters journalists Wa Lone and Kyaw and convicted for the massacre. But the activity in the last six months or so,” he said. “It Soe Oo were released from prison yes- Reuters pair remain in custody. In February, would appear that it is the third carrier, and if it is terday after spending more than 16 Reuters publishes its report into the Inn Din R massacre and says the journalists were arrest- not, it’s hard to envisage what other large vessel it months behind bars for investigating atrocities would be.” The Pentagon’s annual report on China’s against Rohingya Muslims by Myanmar’s army. ed for probing it. military modernization, issued last Friday, noted that Their conviction for breaching the Official the third carrier would probably be larger than the Secrets Act was condemned around the world The trial first two and fitted with a catapult launch system to as an assault on media freedom and shattered The trial begins in July 2018, with promi- accelerate aircraft during takeoff. the image of Myanmar’s leader Aung San Suu nent rights attorney on the legal “This design will enable it to support additional Kyi’s as a rights defender. Here is a timeline of team representing the journalists. Wa Lone, the fighter aircraft, fixed-wing early-warning aircraft, key events in the case. first to testify, tells the court that he had fol- and more rapid flight operations,” the report said. lowed standard reporting procedures and not Funaiole and other analysts said it was unclear what The arrest broken any laws. During the trial, Myanmar kind of catapult - traditional steam-powered or a Wa Lone and meet police for policeman Moe Yan Naing claims a superior more cutting-edge electromagnetic system - would dinner at a restaurant on December 12 ordered a sting to “get” Wa Lone by handing Reuters journalist Wa Lone (3rd right) poses with his wife Pan Ei Mon (2nd right) and daugh- be used. It also remains unclear whether the Type 2017, and are handed a roll of documents. They him papers. The prosecution tries to declare ter along with his colleague Kyaw Soe Oo (left) carrying his daughter and his wife Chit Su 002 would be nuclear-powered. China has 10 are arrested straight afterwards and held under him a hostile witness, but the judge later says Win after being freed from prison in a presidential amnesty in Yangon yesterday. —AFP nuclear-powered submarines, but so far no surface the Official Secrets Act for possessing docu- his testimony can stand. In September, ships with nuclear propulsion; some analysts think Myanmar court sentences both journalists to ments regarding a military crackdown in Suu Kyi is pilloried in September 2018 after Freedom China is not ready to make that step. seven years jail each for violating the state Rakhine state against Rohingya Muslims. Their breaking her long silence on the case only to Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo are released Singapore-based regional security analyst Ian secrets act. An appeal by the pair is dismissed whereabouts are unknown for two weeks and defend the court decision. “They were not from prison in a presidential amnesty in May Storey said a full-sized carrier would make some of by a Yangon High Court judge in January 2019, they later tell the court they were hooded, jailed because they were journalists” but 2019. The two are mobbed by media as they China’s neighbors nervous and highlight the impor- and a further appeal by the Supreme Court is deprived of sleep and interrogated. because “the court has decided that they had step out of the entrance to Yangon’s notorious tance of their strategic relationship with the United rejected in April. broken the Official Secrets Act”, she says. The prison after spending more than 500 days States. “Once completed, it will outclass any warship The case one year anniversary of the jailing of the pair is inside. Wa Lone thanks everyone from from any Asian country, including India and Japan,” Global outrage The pair are charged with possessing doc- marked by newsrooms across the world with “around the world” for advocating for their said Storey, of the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute. “It is The sentence and detention of the two uments linked to security operations against reporters posing for photos flashing the release. “I can’t wait to go to my newsroom,” yet another indication that China has emerged as journalists prompts global outrage, including Rohingya militants in Rakhine state, and of “thumbs up” - Wa Lone’s signature greeting to he says. “I am a journalist and I am going to Asia’s paramount naval power.” from the United Nations. The pair are later breaking a state secrets law. Myanmar’s mili- media at the court. continue.” —AFP China’s first two carriers are relatively small, with tary says it found 10 bodies in a grave at Inn awarded the UN’s annual press freedom prize. only up to 25 aircraft, less than half the number aboard US carriers, and have jump ramps built into their bows. That configuration limits not just the What are the accusations? types of aircraft that can fly off them, but how much What lies behind The men were detained Sunday on accusations of “under- weaponry and fuel they can carry. Its first carrier, the mining the authority of the army” and “conspiring against the Liaoning, was a Soviet-era Ukrainian ship bought authority of the state”. They had held meetings aimed at sav- secondhand in 1998 and re-fitted in China. A still- Algeria arrests of ing the presidential clan and sidelined army chief Ahmed unnamed second carrier based on that design, Gaid Salah - a key powerbroker since breaking with launched in 2017, was built locally. Bouteflika clan? Bouteflika - according to an Algerian expert on his country’s The Liaoning had been seen as more of a training security apparatus. It could equally have been “a simple and platform for teaching personnel the tricky art of car- hat lies behind the arrests of the powerful brother everyday power struggle between clans”, according to the rier operations. But last month, Chinese state media of Algeria’s deposed president Abdelaziz expert who asked not to be named for security reasons. said the ship “is starting to play a combat role follow- Bouteflika and two former intelligence chiefs? The W Who ordered the arrests? ing recent modifications and intensive training exer- three have long been considered among the most powerful cises.” The second carrier has been undergoing sea men in Algeria, but they are now facing charges including Many Algerians believe the arrests were ordered by Gaid trials from its base in northern Dalian and is not “conspiring” against the state. Salah, who had strained relations with Said Bouteflika and expected to enter service until 2020. China’s state helped the president remove Toufik from his post. Paris- Algerian students chant slogans yesterday as they continue media have quoted experts as saying China needs at Who are they? based Algerian researcher Adlene Mohammedi was critical, their weekly in Algiers to demand the least six carriers. The United States operates 11 carri- Said Bouteflika, 61, was widely seen as the real power writing on Facebook that the arrests were nothing more than overthrow of the ‘system’. —AFP ers. China’s Ministry of Defense did not respond to a behind the presidency since his brother suffered a debilitat- a “simple and rude maneuvers” on the part of the army chief. request for comment. —Reuters ing stroke in 2013. General Mohamed Mediene, known as “We offer to protesters... men in cage already ousted from Toufik, headed the all-powerful DRS intelligence agency power in order to allow those who are still there to keep only representative of the Algerian army, which functions largely from its foundation in 1990 up to his fall from grace in 2015. themselves quietly,” Mohammedi wrote in an English post. under a collegial system. The arrests of Said Bouteflika and the General Athmane Tartag, his deputy, succeeded Toufik and two ex-spy bosses were the latest to target the ousted president’s All articles appearing on this page are the when the DRS was dismantled in 2016 he served as Algeria’s Gaid Salah in control? inner circle, in effect decapitating Algeria’s ruling elite. Numerous personal opinion of the writers. Kuwait security coordinator under the supervision of the presidency. According to the Algerian expert, the arrests were “a demon- powerful and wealthy businessmen, including the country’s richest After Bouteflika’s fall on April 2, following weeks of mass stration of force on the part of Gaid Salah to show that he is in man Issad Rebrab, have also been detained over suspected cor- Times takes no responsibility for views street protests against his two-decade rule, Tartag was rap- control of the situation... and capable of changing things”. With ruption. More than a month after the departure of Bouteflika, expressed therein. idly dismissed while the president’s brother had no official interim president Abdelkader Bensalah lacking political legitima- protesters remain on the streets to demand an overhaul of the post and Toufik had been retired. cy, Gaid Salah appears to be in sole command. But he is not the entire ruling system - including the removal of Gaid Salah. —AFP