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Comparative Connections P a c i f i c F o r u m C S I S Comparative Connections A Quarterly E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations edited by Brad Glosserman Eun Jung Cahill Che 2nd Quarter 2002 Vol. 4, No. 2 July 2002 www.csis.org/pacfor/ccejournal.html Pacific Forum CSIS Based in Honolulu, Hawaii, the Pacific Forum CSIS operates as the autonomous Asia- Pacific arm of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Founded in 1975, the thrust of the Forum’s work is to help develop cooperative policies in the Asia- Pacific region through debate and analyses undertaken with the region’s leaders in the academic, government, and corporate arenas. The Forum’s programs encompass current and emerging political, security, economic/business, and oceans policy issues. It collaborates with a network of more than 30 research institutes around the Pacific Rim, drawing on Asian perspectives and disseminating its projects’ findings and recommendations to opinion leaders, governments, and publics throughout the region. An international Board of Governors guides the Pacific Forum’s work; it is chaired by Brent Scowcroft, former Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs. The Forum is funded by grants from foundations, corporations, individuals, and governments, the latter providing a small percentage of the forum’s $1.2 million annual budget. The Forum’s studies are objective and nonpartisan and it does not engage in classified or proprietary work. Comparative Connections A Quarterly E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations Edited by Brad Glosserman and Eun Jung Cahill Che Volume 4, Number 2 Second Quarter 2002 Honolulu, Hawaii July 2002 Comparative Connections A Quarterly Electronic Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations Bilateral relationships in East Asia have long been important to regional peace and stability, but in the post-Cold War environment, these relationships have taken on a new strategic rationale as countries pursue multiple ties, beyond those with the U.S., to realize complex political, economic, and security interests. How one set of bilateral interests affects a country’s other key relations is becoming more fluid and complex, and at the same time is becoming more central to the region’s overall strategic compass. Comparative Connections, Pacific Forum’s quarterly electronic journal on East Asian bilateral relations edited by Brad Glosserman and Eun Jung Cahill Che, with Ralph A. Cossa serving as senior editor, was created in response to this unique environment. Comparative Connections provides timely and insightful analyses on key bilateral relationships in the region, including those involving the U.S. We cover 12 key bilateral relationships that are critical for the region. While we recognize the importance of other states in the region, our intention is to keep the core of the e-journal to a manageable and readable length. Because our project cannot give full attention to each of the relationships in Asia, coverage of U.S.-Southeast Asia and China-Southeast Asia countries consists of a summary of individual bilateral relationships, and may shift focus from country to country as events warrant. Other bilateral relationships may be tracked periodically (such as various bilateral relationships with India or Australia’s significant relationships) as events dictate. Our aim is to inform and interpret the significant issues driving political, economic, and security affairs of the U.S. and East Asian relations by an ongoing analysis of events in each key bilateral relationship. The reports, written by a variety of experts in Asian affairs, focus on political/security developments, but economic issues are also addressed. Each essay is accompanied by a chronology of significant events occurring between the states in question during the quarter. An overview section, written by Pacific Forum, places bilateral relationships in a broader context of regional relations. By providing value-added interpretative analyses, as well as factual accounts of key events, the e-journal illuminates patterns in Asian bilateral relations that may appear as isolated events and better defines the impact bilateral relationships have upon one another and on regional security. Table of Contents Regional Overview:………………………………………………………………………1 Powell Speaks ... Was Anyone Listening? by Ralph A. Cossa, Pacific Forum CSIS In June, Secretary of State Colin Powell presented the most comprehensive statement to date on U.S. Asia policy, underscoring the importance of America’s regional alliances while reinforcing the administration’s focus on antiterrorism. It set a positive tone regarding Sino-U.S. relations. The same cannot be said about North Korea. While expressing hope that a U.S.-DPRK dialogue would soon begin, Powell also laid out specific prerequisites for progress that will guarantee arduous negotiations if and when the two sides ever actually sit down and talk. Overshadowing Powell’s speech was President Bush’s June 1 West Point address, which signaled a more proactive (if not pre- emptive) strategy in the war on terrorism. Meanwhile, multilateralism took on new energy in Asia, highlighted by a de facto defense “summit” and a genuine summit on confidence building involving numerous Asian heads of state (but not the U.S.). Also capturing the international spotlight was the release of Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest. U.S.-Japan Relations:…………………………………………………………………..17 All is Good, If You Don’t Look Too Close by Brad Glosserman, Pacific Forum CSIS It has been a relatively quiet quarter for United States-Japan relations. Political, economic, and security relations have continued on a positive course. Yet if the trajectory is good, there has been a big change in a critical element of the U.S.-Japan relationship: the popularity of Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro has suffered a precipitous drop. Since public support was the prime minister’s only card in his battles with the old guard of his Liberal Democratic Party, the plunge in public approval ratings threatens to undermine his entire legislative program. Koizumi’s weakness will also be felt in relations with the U.S. The failure to pursue aggressive economic reform could damage his credibility. The prime minister has already been forced to give up on legislation that would allow the Japanese government to respond to crises – a indicator of Japan’s “new” seriousness in security affairs. U.S.-China Relations:…………………………………………………………………..25 Fleshing out the Candid, Cooperative, and Constructive Relationship by Bonnie S. Glaser, Consultant on Asian Affairs An active agenda of exchanges and consultations took place this quarter, providing Sino- U.S. relations with a modicum of stability. Chinese Vice President Hu Jintao toured the U.S., stopping in Washington for two days of meetings with President George W. Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, and many Cabinet members. Cooperation between Washington and Beijing in the war on terrorism advanced with the establishment of semi- annual consultations on sources of terrorist financing. Broader discussions were also held in the second round U.S.-China counterterrorism talks. Talks also provided a boost to commercial and economic ties. Beijing remained both suspicious and perplexed by U.S. policy toward Taiwan, and verbal gaffes by President Bush and Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz created unease on both sides of the Strait. Finally, the U.S. and Chinese militaries explored the possibility of resuming contacts. U.S.-Korea Relations:…………………………………………………………………..35 After the “Breakthrough,” Now What? by Donald G. Gross, Yonsei University Graduate School of International Relations This quarter opened with a bang and ended with a long pause. South Korea’s Special Presidential Envoy Lim Dong-won undertook a critical mission to North Korea to put the process of inter-Korean reconciliation back on track. North Korea’s willingness to meet with Lim signaled a desire to improve the political atmosphere after more than a year of verbal sparring with the Bush administration. Pyongyang agreed to resume bilateral negotiations with Washington, decided to continue reunions of divided Korean families, organize a new round of South-North economic talks, and continue discussions with South Korea on military confidence building. What most influenced North Korea’s decision will probably never be known precisely. Most likely, fear of Washington’s new aggressiveness in confronting potential enemies post-Sept. 11 was a significant factor. U.S.-Russia Relations:………………………………………………………………….44 Growing Expectations: How Far Can Rapprochement be Carried Forward? by Joseph Ferguson, The Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies Presidents Bush and Putin carried out successful summits in Moscow and St. Petersburg in May and signed a groundbreaking strategic arms reduction agreement. Russia was welcomed into NATO and given a seat on a council with a voice in alliance matters. The U.S. also was behind the pledge by the G-7 nations to contribute $20 billion over 10 years to nonproliferation programs in Russia and the former Soviet republics and to give Russia a permanent seat at future G-8 meetings. Most important, the U.S. and Russia have continued their cooperation in the war on terrorism and Russia continues to give the U.S. a free hand in Central Asia. In return the U.S. leadership remains mum on Chechnya. Nevertheless, more is expected in Russia in return for unquestioned support of the U.S. Putin is beginning to feel some domestic opposition to his policy of “appeasing” the U.S.; how long he can continue this policy if Russia appears to accrue no advantage is questionable. U.S.-Southeast Asia Relations:……………………………………………………….. 50 Building for the Long Term by Marvin Ott, National Defense University The quarter was marked by continued U.S. efforts to consolidate and clarify its counterterrorism strategy in the region. In the Philippines, U.S. military training and assistance seemed to produce more energetic and effective operations by the Philippine Army against Abu Sayyaf guerrillas.
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