Managing Nuclear Risks
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A WAY FORWARD with IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy
A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 Cover photo: Associated Press Photo/Photographer: Mohammad Berno 2 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY CONTENTS List of Abbreviations 4 List of Figures 5 Key Findings 6 How Did We Reach This Point? 7 Roots of the U.S.-Iran Relationship 9 The Results of the Maximum Pressure Policy 13 Any Change in Iranian Behavior? 21 Biden Administration Policy and Implementation Options 31 Conclusion 48 Contributors 49 About The Soufan Center 51 3 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS BPD Barrels Per Day FTO Foreign Terrorist Organization GCC Gulf Cooperation Council IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile IMF International Monetary Fund IMSC International Maritime Security Construct INARA Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act INSTEX Instrument for Supporting Trade Exchanges IRGC Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC-QF Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - Qods Force JCPOA Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action MBD Million Barrels Per Day PMF Popular Mobilization Forces SRE Significant Reduction Exception 4 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Iran Annual GDP Growth and Change in Crude Oil Exports 18 Figure 2: Economic Effects of Maximum Pressure 19 Figure 3: Armed Factions Supported by Iran 25 Figure 4: Comparison of Iran Nuclear Program with JCPOA Limitations 28 5 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. -
Annual Report 2018
2018Annual Report Annual Report July 1, 2017–June 30, 2018 Council on Foreign Relations 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065 tel 212.434.9400 1777 F Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006 tel 202.509.8400 www.cfr.org [email protected] OFFICERS DIRECTORS David M. Rubenstein Term Expiring 2019 Term Expiring 2022 Chairman David G. Bradley Sylvia Mathews Burwell Blair Effron Blair Effron Ash Carter Vice Chairman Susan Hockfield James P. Gorman Jami Miscik Donna J. Hrinak Laurene Powell Jobs Vice Chairman James G. Stavridis David M. Rubenstein Richard N. Haass Vin Weber Margaret G. Warner President Daniel H. Yergin Fareed Zakaria Keith Olson Term Expiring 2020 Term Expiring 2023 Executive Vice President, John P. Abizaid Kenneth I. Chenault Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer Mary McInnis Boies Laurence D. Fink James M. Lindsay Timothy F. Geithner Stephen C. Freidheim Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, Stephen J. Hadley Margaret (Peggy) Hamburg and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair James Manyika Charles Phillips Jami Miscik Cecilia Elena Rouse Nancy D. Bodurtha Richard L. Plepler Frances Fragos Townsend Vice President, Meetings and Membership Term Expiring 2021 Irina A. Faskianos Vice President, National Program Tony Coles Richard N. Haass, ex officio and Outreach David M. Cote Steven A. Denning Suzanne E. Helm William H. McRaven Vice President, Philanthropy and Janet A. Napolitano Corporate Relations Eduardo J. Padrón Jan Mowder Hughes John Paulson Vice President, Human Resources and Administration Caroline Netchvolodoff OFFICERS AND DIRECTORS, Vice President, Education EMERITUS & HONORARY Shannon K. O’Neil Madeleine K. Albright Maurice R. Greenberg Vice President and Deputy Director of Studies Director Emerita Honorary Vice Chairman Lisa Shields Martin S. -
Malley As Iran Envoy: Hawks and Progressives Spar Over Possible Nomination
Malley as Iran Envoy: Hawks and Progressives Spar over Possible Nomination Reports that Robert Malley, lead Iran negotiator under Obama, is being considered for envoy position sparks outrage from conservatives By Ali Harb Region: USA Global Research, January 28, 2021 Theme: Intelligence Middle East Eye 26 January 2021 All Global Research articles including the E-Book can be read in 27 languages by activating the “Translate Website” drop down menu on the top banner of our home page (Desktop version). *** Despite deep divisions plaguing American politics, the Republican pushback against President Joe Biden’s cabinet nominees has been relatively quiet. Days into the new administration, the Senate confirmed Biden’s secretaries of state, treasury and defence, as well as intelligence chief with bipartisan support as other nominees undergo routine hearings. A fight may be looming, however, over the potential nominationRobert of Malley, an outspoken proponent of diplomacy, as the administration’s envoy for Iran. Malley, an Obama-era diplomat, leads the International Crisis Group think tank, which focuses on preventing and resolving violent conflicts. His possible appointment has faced an early backlash from conservatives and earned the praise of advocates of the Iran nuclear deal. Sina Toossi, a senior research analyst at the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), said a well-funded and coordinated “network” of anti-Iran hawks that has been smearing advocates of diplomacy with Tehran has “drawn the line” on Malley. “Rob Malley was the Obama administration’s chief nuclear negotiator – someone has experience negotiating with the Iranians, who is an actual diplomat,” Toossi told MEE. “These attacks are part of a broader effort against diplomacy with Iran, against reversing Trump’s disastrous approach towards Iran.” Backlash The chatter, opposition and praise for Malley started last week when Jewish Insider reported that he was being considered for the position of special envoy for Iran. -
Before the First Bomb Goes Off: Developing Nuclear Attribution Standards and Policies by Debra K
International Security Program Before the First Bomb Goes Off: Developing Nuclear Attribution Standards and Policies By Debra K. Decker April 2011 Discussion Paper #2011-03 Belfer Center Discussion Paper Series Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Harvard Kennedy School 79 JFK Street Cambridge, MA 02138 Fax: (617) 495-8963 Email: [email protected] Website: http://belfercenter.org Copyright 2011 President and Fellows of Harvard College CITATION AND REPRODUCTION This document appears as Discussion Paper 2011-03 of the Belfer Center Discussion Paper Series. Belfer Center Discussion Papers are works in progress. Comments are welcome and may be directed to the author via [email protected]. This paper may be cited as: Debra K. Decker, “Before the First Bomb Goes Off: Developing Nuclear Attribution Standards and Policies,” Belfer Center Discussion Paper, No. 2011-03, Harvard Kennedy School, April 2011. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and publication does not imply their endorsement by the Belfer Center and Harvard University. This paper may be reproduced for personal and classroom use. Any other reproduction is not permitted without written permission from the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. To obtain more information, please contact: Katherine B. Gordon, International Security Program, 79 JFK Street, box 53, Cambridge, MA 02138, telephone (617) 495-1914; facsimile (617) 495-8963; email [email protected]. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Debra K. Decker is an Associate with the Project on Managing the Atom and the International Security Program at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School. She is currently based in Washington, D.C., where she is also an Associate of Booz Allen Hamilton and advises government clients on strategic planning and risk management. -
Iran's Foreign and Defense Policies
Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies Updated May 8, 2019 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R44017 SUMMARY R44017 Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies May 8, 2019 Iran’s national security policy is the product of many overlapping and sometimes competing factors such as the ideology of Iran’s Islamic revolution, perception of threats Kenneth Katzman to the regime and to the country, long-standing national interests, and the interaction of Specialist in Middle the Iranian regime’s factions and constituencies. Iran’s leadership: Eastern Affairs x Seeks to deter or thwart U.S. or other efforts to invade or intimidate Iran or to bring about a change of regime. x Has sought to take advantage of opportunities of regional conflicts to overturn a power structure in the Middle East that it asserts favors the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni Muslim Arab regimes. x Seeks to enhance its international prestige and restore a sense of “greatness” reminiscent of ancient Persian empires. x Advances its foreign policy goals, in part by providing material support to regional allied governments and armed factions. Iranian officials characterize the support as helping the region’s “oppressed” and assert that Saudi Arabia, in particular, is instigating sectarian tensions and trying to exclude Iran from regional affairs. x Sometimes disagrees on tactics and strategies. Supreme Leader Ali Khamene’i and key hardline institutions, such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), oppose any compromises of Iran’s national security core goals. Iran’s elected president, Hassan Rouhani, and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif support Iran’s integration into regional and international diplomacy. -
U.S.-Iran Tensions and Implications for U.S. Policy
U.S.-Iran Tensions and Implications for U.S. Policy Updated July 29, 2019 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R45795 SUMMARY R45795 U.S.-Iran Tensions and Implications for July 29, 2019 U.S. Policy Kenneth Katzman Since May 2019, U.S.-Iran tensions have escalated. The Trump Administration, following its Specialist in Middle 2018 withdrawal from the 2015 multilateral nuclear agreement with Iran (Joint Comprehensive Eastern Affairs Plan of Action, JCPOA), has taken several steps in its campaign of applying “maximum pressure” on Iran. Iran and Iran-linked forces have targeted commercial ships and infrastructure Kathleen J. McInnis in U.S. partner countries. U.S. officials have stated that Iran-linked threats to U.S. forces and Specialist in International interests, and attacks on several commercial ships in May and June 2019, have prompted the Security Administration to send additional military assets to the region to deter future Iranian actions. However, Iran’s downing of a U.S. unmanned aerial aircraft might indicate that Iran has not been deterred, to date. Clayton Thomas Analyst in Middle Eastern President Donald Trump has said he prefers a diplomatic solution over moving toward military Affairs confrontation, including a revised JCPOA that encompasses not only nuclear issues but also broader U.S. concerns about Iran’s support for regional armed factions. During May-June 2019, the Administration has placed further pressure on Iran’s economy. By expanding U.S. sanctions against Iran, including sanctioning its mineral and petrochemical exports, and Supreme Leader Ali Khamene’i. Iranian leaders have refused to talk directly with the Administration, and Iran has begun to exceed some nuclear limitations stipulated in the JCPOA. -
Bargaining, Nuclear Proliferation, and Interstate Disputes
Bargaining, Nuclear Proliferation, and Interstate Disputes Erik Gartzke 1 Dong-Joon Jo Word count: 10,833 Abstract Contrasting claims about the consequences of nuclear weapons rely on different interpretations about how leaders respond to risk, uncertainty, and the balance of power. Nuclear optimists use deterrence theory to argue that proliferation can promote stability and inhibit the use of force. Pessimists argue that proliferation precipitates nuclear hubris, accident, or anger that heighten the risk of war. It is also possible that nuclear weapons have no net effect on dispute propensity. Since states fashion their own bargains, nuclear status is bound to influence the distribution of influence. Proliferation also reflects existing tensions, biasing upward the apparent impact of nuclear weapons on conventional conflict. Instrumenting for the decision to proliferate, we find that nuclear weapons increase diplomatic status, without much affecting whether states fight. 1. Introduction Since the advent of the nuclear age, speculation has raged about whether taming the atom inflames or pacifies world politics. Optimists claim that nuclear weapons deter, and therefore stabilize the politics of nations (Mearsheimer 1984, 1993; Waltz 1981, 1990). Pessimists see nuclear weapons as inciting fear, hubris, and misperception (Jervis 1984, 1988, 1989; Sagan 1989). A third, somewhat neglected possibility is that both arguments are right, and wrong. Diplomatic bargains tend to dampen the observable impact of nuclear weapons, even as contrasting tendencies tend to cancel each other out. To the degree that nuclear weapons influence the concessions proliferators are likely to obtain in lieu of force, proliferation does much less to account for behavioral conflict. Possession of nuclear weapons increases the risks to opponents that choose to fight. -
Iran Case File (April 2019)
IRAN CASE FILE July 2020 RASANAH International Institute for Iranian Studies, Al-Takhassusi St. Sahafah, Riyadh Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. P.O. Box: 12275 | Zip code: 11473 Contact us [email protected] +966112166696 The Executive Summary .............................................................4 Internal Affairs .........................................................................7 The Ideological File ......................................................................... 8 I. Supporters of Velayat-e Faqih and the Call to End the US Presence in Iraq .......................................................................... 8 II. Coronavirus Amid Muharram Gatherings in Najaf ............................ 9 The Political File ............................................................................12 I. The Bill to Hold Rouhani Accountable and the Conservatives’ Call for Him to Be Deposed .......................................12 II. The Supreme Leader Saves Rouhani From Interrogation and Rejects His Ouster .....................................................13 The Economic File ..........................................................................16 I. History of Economic Relations Between Iran and China .....................16 II. The Nature and Provisions of the 25-year Partnership Agreement ..... 17 III. Prospects of the Long Term Iranian-Chinese Partnership .................18 The Military File............................................................................ 20 Arab Affairs ............................................................................25 -
IRGC Gets 112 Missile-Launching Speed Boats Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova Said on Thursday the U.S
WWW.TEHRANTIMES.COM I N T E R N A T I O N A L D A I L Y 12 Pages Price 50,000 Rials 1.00 EURO 4.00 AED 42nd year No.13675 Saturday MAY 30, 2020 Khordad 10, 1399 Shawwal 7, 1441 EU, Russia condemn EU designates Rock climber Alipour Film Museum of Iran U.S. for ending Naghsh-e Jahan Sq. as looks to win reopens after 3-month nuclear waivers 2 World Heritage asset 8 Olympics gold 11 coronavirus closure 12 Over $7.3b allocated for See page 2 development projects TEHRAN — Head of Iran’s Planning and accelerating the implementation of prior- Budget Organization (PBO) has announced itized national and provincial development an over 310 trillion rials (about $7.38 bil- projects and to fulfill the current year’s slogan lion) budget allocation for development which is “surge in production”. projects across the country in the current The resources allocated to the national Iranian calendar year (started on March development projects are going to be 218 20), IRNA reported. trillion rials ($5.19 billion), while special According to a PBO statement, the provincial projects will be given 16.74 tril- mentioned budget has been allocated for lion rials ($398.5 million), 4 U.S. move to end nuclear sanction waivers are symbolic: Shireen Hunter By Javad Heirannia real. The ending of waivers are in the same TEHRAN — Shireen Tahmaasb Hunter, vein,” Hunter comments. a professor of political science at George- She also says the goal behind such a town University, tells the Tehran Times move “is not to rescue JCPOA or even to that the new U.S. -
Understanding the Nuclear
understanding the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty NPT a publication of the Medical Association for Prevention of War (Australia) September 2007 print version September 2007 | Medical Association for Prevention of War (Australia) Based on the 2005 MAPW publication “Australia and the NPT 2005, Getting serious about ridding the world of WMDs” Principal authors: Dr Sue Wareham, Dimity Hawkins and Loretta O’Brien. With assistance from Dr Marianne Hanson and members of the MAPW National Council 2007 edition: the updated edition and layout by Dimity Hawkins. Redrafting assistance from Dr Sue Wareham OAM, Associate Professor Tilman Ruff, Felicity Hill, Nancy Atkin, Jessica Morrison. Editing by Dr Cath Keaney. Artwork © Dimity Hawkins. About the Medical Association for Prevention of War The Medical Association for Prevention of War (MAPW) Australia is an organisation of health professionals dedicated to the prevention of armed conflict and the abolition of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. It is affiliated with International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW), recipient of the 1985 Nobel Peace Prize. MAPW PO Box 1379 Carlton VIC 3053 Phone: +61 (03) 8344 1637 Fax: +61 (03) 8344 1638 [email protected] www.mapw.org.au About ICAN ICAN is the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, initiated by MAPW and IPPNW. ICAN focuses on the roots of the nuclear weapons problem - the continued possession of nuclear weapons by a small minority of countries, who risk their use by design, accident, miscalculation or by terrorists, and whose weapons are an incentive to others to also become nuclear armed. ICAN aims to achieve a Nuclear Weapons Convention to ban the development, possession and use of nuclear weapons. -
44 Nuclear Proliferation and Declining U.S. Hegemony Richard Maass
Nuclear Proliferation and Declining U.S. Hegemony Richard Maass Introduction On August 29, 1949, The Soviet Union successfully tested its first nuclear fission bomb, signaling the end of U.S. hegemony in the international arena. On September 11th, 2001, the world’s single most powerful nation watched in awe as the very symbols of its prosperity fell to rubble in the streets of New York City. The United States undisputedly “has a greater share of world power than any other country in history” (Brooks and Wolforth, 2008, pg. 2). Yet even a global hegemon is ultimately fallible and vulnerable to rash acts of violence as it conducts itself in a rational manner and assumes the same from other states. Conventional strategic thought and military action no longer prevail in an era of increased globalization. Developing states and irrational actors play increasingly influential roles in the international arena. Beginning with the U.S.S.R. in 1949, nuclear proliferation has exponentially increased states’ relative military capabilities as well as global levels of political instability. Through ideas such as nuclear peace theory, liberal political scholars developed several models under which nuclear weapons not only maintain but increase global tranquility. These philosophies assume rationality on the part of political actors in an increasingly irrational world plagued by terrorism, despotic totalitarianism, geo-political instability and failed international institutionalism. Realistically, “proliferation of nuclear [weapons]…constitutes a threat to international peace and security” (UN Security Council, 2006, pg. 1). Nuclear security threats arise in four forms: the threat of existing arsenals, the emergence of new nuclear states, the collapse of international non-proliferation regimes and the rise of nuclear terrorism. -
An Assessment of Gaddis' Suggestion That MAD Secured a 'Long Peace'
An assessment of Gaddis' suggestion that MAD secured a ‘long peace' Written by Seamus Peter Johnstone Macleod This PDF is auto-generated for reference only. As such, it may contain some conversion errors and/or missing information. For all formal use please refer to the official version on the website, as linked below. An assessment of Gaddis' suggestion that MAD secured a ‘long peace' https://www.e-ir.info/2011/11/02/a-critical-assessment-of-gaddis-suggestion-that-mutually-assured-destruction-secured- a-%e2%80%98long-peace/ SEAMUS PETER JOHNSTONE MACLEOD, NOV 2 2011 John Lewis Gaddis attributes the lack of pyrexia in the relations between the great powers in the post-war period to, among other factors, the fearsome and unprecedented destructive power each side had at its disposal. He attributes the “long peace” of the Cold War to the transparent balance of power created nuclear weapons. This essay will briefly examine the nature of this “long peace” since the latter half of the twentieth century cannot be said to have been without bloodshed. This will be followed by an appraisal of the effects – or lack thereof – of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) in sustaining “peace” and a re-evaluation of the supposed stabilising effect of bipolarity. Gaddis’s emphasis on nuclear weapons and neorealist notions of a balance of power are shown to fail in explaining the temperature of relations between Moscow and Washington. This essay concludes that whilst the destructive power of the atom bomb is significant, its contribution to stability in the latter half of the twentieth century is not.