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10 Years of Advancing Knowledge on the Global Carbon Cycle and Its Management the Global Carbon Project

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10 Years of Advancing Knowledge on the Global Carbon Cycle and Its Management the Global Carbon Project www.globalcarbonproject.org Global Carbon Project 10 Years of Advancing Knowledge on the Global Carbon Cycle and its Management The Global Carbon Project The Global Carbon Project (GCP) was established in 2001 in recognition of the enor- mous scientifi c challenge and critical nature of the carbon cycle for the Earth’s sustaina- bility. It was formed to establish a framework for international coordinated research on the global carbon cycle that advances fundamental understanding and supports policy development towards the stabilization of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The GCP conducts comprehensive and global research of the carbon cycle and its interactions with the human, biophysical and climate system, facilitates the coordina- tion of national and regional carbon programs and activities, and leads a number of global assessments to support international conventions and national agendas. GCP has established two International Project Offi ces (IPO) to coordinate global efforts (CSIRO-Australia and NIES-Japan) and several regional affi liated offi ces in China, Europe, the USA and most recently in Korea. The Global Carbon Project was formed as a shared partnership between the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP), the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and Diversitas. This partnership constitutes the Earth Systems Science Partnership (ESSP). The scientifi c goal of the Global Carbon Project is to develop a complete picture of 2 the global carbon cycle, including both its biophysical and human dimensions together with the interactions and feedbacks between them. Focus is placed on three research areas: patterns and variability, processes and interactions and carbon management. Activities of the project are organized around these three topics in addition to the GCP-wide High-Level Synthesis. Patterns and Processes and Variability Interactions Find current geographical and temporal Unveil control and feedback mechanisms, distributions of the major pools and fluxes both anthropogenic and in the global carbon cycle throgh: non-anthropogenic, that determine the • observations coordination and dynamics of the carbon cycle through: standardlization; Carbon • integrated carbon sink mechanisms • model - data fusion techniques; • new modelling approaches for emergent • carbon budget methodologiesg and sector Management properties of the carbon - climate - human analyses system Dynamics of the carbon - climate - human system in the future, points of intervention and windows of opportunities available to human socieities for system manage- ment: • mitigation options through land, ocean and energy systems • portfolios and development for carbon management and sustainability • carbon consequences and managementent of regional and urban development ▲Inter-connectivity between the scientifi c themes of the Global Carbon Project 10 Years of Advancing Knowledge on the Global Carbon Cycle and its Management its and Cycle Carbon Global the on Knowledge Advancing of Years 10 bel8, Shutterstock.com ©ira©irabe©irabel8, Shutterstock.com Mandate 1. To develop a research framework for integration of the biogeochemical, biophysical and human compo- nents of the global carbon cycle. 2. To synthesize current understanding of the global carbon cycle and to provide rapid feedback to the research and policy communities, and to the general public. © Christian Noval | Dreamstime.com 3. To provide a global coordinating platform for 3 regional/national carbon programs to improve observation network design, data standards, information and tools transfer, and timing of campaigns and process-based experiments. 4. To work towards a Global Carbon Observation Strategy with the Group on Earth Observations (GEO). 70 80 909 10100001 11010 12 12020 130 140 45 5. To develop a number of timely new research initiatives on highly interdisciplinary problems of the 40 carbon cycle. 35 6. To foster new carbon research and engagement in regions of global importance for the carbon cycle 30 but with limited capacity 25 (1) . NPP (gC / m2 / yr) 0-10 Quotation 20 10-20 (1) 20-50 Global Carbon Project. 2003. Science framework and Implementation. Edited by Canadell JG, Dickson50-100 R, Hibbard K, Raupach MR & Y 100-200 (IGBP, IHDP, WCRP, DIVERSITAS) Report No. 1; Global Carbon Project Report No. 1, 69pp, Canberra. 200-300 300-500 15 500-700 700-1000 Source: Shilong Piao et al 2009 ©Robert Kerton oung O. Earth System Science Partnership 1 State of the Global Carbon Budget In collaboration with a number of institutions and scientists, the GCP has established an international consortium of scientists and research institutions to track the major carbon fl uxes and their trends, and publishes the state of global carbon cycle annually since 2007. The latest release published in Nature Geosciences in November 2009 attracted wide attention from both the scientifi c and policy communities, with a large world media coverage. 10 Science Highlights Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center Intemational Energy Agency Atmospheric CO Growth 9 Projection 2 Averages A1B The annual growth of atmospheric CO2 was 1.8 ppm in 8 A1FI 2008. The mean growth rate for the previous 20 years was A1T A2 about 1.5 ppm per year. The atmospheric CO2 concentration 7 B1 was 385 ppm in 2008, 38% higher than at the start of the B2 industrial revolution (about 280 ppm in 1750). The present 6 concentration is the highest during the last 2 million years. Full range of IPCC individual scenarios 5 Source: Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, updated; Le Quéré 2009, Nature Geoscience; International Monetary Fund 2009 2000-2008 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 PgC ▲Fossil fuel emissions: Actual vs. IPCC scenarios 7.7 ) 1 Regional Fuel Emissions Drivers - The biggest increase in emissions has taken place in develop- Source 1.4 ing countries while developed countries show rather steady flux (PgCy 2 4.1 emissions for the last decade. About one quarter of the recent CO Sink growth in emissions in developing countries resulted from the 3.0 (5 models) increase in international trade of goods and services pro- 4 2.3 (4 models) duced in developing countries but consumed in developed 0.3 (Residual) countries. 1850 1900 1950 2000 Source: Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009 Time (y) ▲Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget Effects of the Global Financial Crisis The fi nancial crisis had a small but discernable impact on Emissions from Fossil Fuel the emissions growth rate in 2008: a growth rate of 2.0% Fossil fuel CO2 emissions growth in 2008 was 2%. This down from the 3.4% per year on average over the previous growth led to an all-time high of 8.7 PgC emitted to the 7 years. A positive growth is expected to return in 2011 as atmosphere (1 Pg = 1 billion tons or 1000 x million tons), the change in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) goes 29% above the emissions level in 2000, and 41% above positive. the Kyoto reference year 1990. Coal is now the largest fossil fuel source of CO2 emissions. Over 90% of the growth in CO2 Removal by Natural Sinks: Ocean and Land coal emissions in 2008 resulted from increased coal use in Natural land and ocean CO2 sinks removed 57% (or 5.3 China and India. Global emissions per capita reached 1.3 PgC per year) of all CO2 emitted from human activities dur- tonnes of carbon. ing 1958-2008. During this period the size of the natural sinks has grown, but likely at a slower pace than emissions Regional emisions from land Deforestation area have grown, although the year-to-year variability is large. This use change and forestry Carbon flux could indicate a decline in the effi ciency of the sinks in re- moving atmospheric CO over time (from 60% fi fty years ago 25% 2 South and down to 55% in recent years), a trend expected to continue South East Asia 41% 10 in the future. 8.7 Models ) 1 8 35% - Tropical Africa suggest the 6 Fossil fuel 17% sinks are 4 emissions (PgCy 2 responding CO Land use change 1.2 South and 40% 2 to climate Central America 43% change and Source: Canadell et al. 2009, Biogeosciences 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: CDIAC, FAO, Hole Research Center 2009 Woods variability. ▲Land Use Change and Forestry Regional carbon emissions’ shares (2000-2005) and historical emissions (1960 - 2010) 10 Years of Advancing Knowledge on the Global Carbon Cycle and its Management 10 Years Raupach MR, Canadell JG & Le Quéré C. 2008. Anthropogenic and biophysi- The global oceanic CO2 sink removed 26% of all CO2 emis- cal contributions to increasing atmospheric CO growth rate and airborne sions for the period 2000-2008, while terrestrial CO sinks 2 2 fraction. Biogeosciences Discussions 5(4), 2867-2896. removed 29% of all anthropogenic emissions for the same Canadell JG, Le Quéré C, Raupach MR, Field CB, Buitenhuis ET et al. 2007. period. An analysis of the long-term trend of the terrestrial sink Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic shows a growing size of the CO sink over the last 60 years, activity, carbon intensity, and effi ciency of natural sinks. Proceedings of the 2 National Academy of Sciences 104(47), 18866-18870. but no discernable change in the effi ciency of the sink. On Doney SC & Schimel DS. 2007. Carbon and climate system coupling on the other hand, the effi ciency of the oceans appears to have timescales from the Precambrian to the Anthropocene. Annual Review of been declining over the last two decades partially owing to Environment and Resources 32, 31-66 Canadell JG & Raupach MR. 2005. The Challenges of Stabilising Atmospheric the decline in effi ciency of the Southern Ocean and North CO2 Concentrations: IHDP. Atlantic Ocean where long-term fi eld observations and model Schimel DS, House JI, Hibbard KA, Bousquet P, Ciais P et al.
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