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Overview of Climate Change Science, Is a Survey of What Is Chang- Ing with Our Current Global Climate SPRINGER BRIEFS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE G. Thomas Farmer Modern Climate Change Science An Overview of Today’s Climate Change Science 123 SpringerBriefs in Environmental Science More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/8868 G. Thomas Farmer Modern Climate Change Science An Overview of Today’s Climate Change Science 1 3 G. Thomas Farmer Farmer Enterprises Las Cruces, NM USA ISSN 2191-5547 ISSN 2191-5555 (electronic) ISBN 978-3-319-09221-8 ISBN 978-3-319-09222-5 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-09222-5 Library of Congress Control Number: 2014945257 Springer Cham Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London © The Author(s) 2015 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. Exempted from this legal reservation are brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis or material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the Copyright Law of the Publisher’s location, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Permissions for use may be obtained through RightsLink at the Copyright Clearance Center. Violations are liable to prosecution under the respective Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication, neither the authors nor the editors nor the publisher can accept any legal responsibility for any errors or omissions that may be made. The publisher makes no warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com) An Overview and Update of Climate Change Science (From January 2013 through February 2014) Earthrise from the Moon, taken in 1968 by William Anders and Frank Borman as they circled the Moon. (From NASA, Public Domain) Perhaps the most important function of climate science on an issue of broad inter- est like global warming is to help educate the public and to provide useful input into the policy process. Governments, corporations, and individuals should listen to and learn from the science, just as intelligent people listen to their physicians when their health is in question. Good science input can inform wise policymak- ing. The role of scientists is to help assess the science and present it in an intelligi- ble way that is policy relevant. The Forgiving Air: Understanding Environmental Change, (2008) by Richard Somerville, Distinguished Professor Emeritus at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA Preface This book has been a challenge to write because I attempt what at first seems to be an impossible task because of two main causes for concern: (1) presenting the reader with a topical survey of the science of climate change and (2) directing the reader to the agencies and researchers at the forefront of the science; so why impossible? (1) It is impossible to survey climate science adequately because it consists of an integration of complex subjects such as the physics and chemistry of the atmos- phere, geophysics, geochemistry, geology, biology, ecology, biogeochemistry, computer science, paleoclimatology, and others. One small volume cannot do each of these topics justice in the context of “climate science” or make them a cohesive whole. However, there is an academic entity known as “climate change science” that is being studied today because the climate is changing. It is not the same as “climatology” or “climate science,” it is the study of a changing climate, ergo cli- mate change science. (2) It is also impossible to direct the reader to all the agencies and researchers in the forefront of climate change science. There are simply too many of them. The emphasis throughout the book is on research being conducted in the United States. This is because the writer is most familiar with the agencies and scientists doing work in the USA. Outstanding research institutions and individual research- ers in other countries are included but the emphasis is on work being done at U.S. agencies and institutions. There are two chapters in the book: Chapter 1, an Overview of Climate Change Science, is a survey of what is chang- ing with our current global climate. This chapter covers several topics, none of them in depth, but each with enough material that the reader is prepared to seek out and have an appreciation for a more advanced and thorough treatment of the subject. Chapter 2, Status of Climate Change Research, leads the reader to sources of climate change information such as government agencies, colleges, and universi- ties, and some of the leading researchers in climate change science. The writer has kept the citing of URLs to a minimum because of the short lifes- pan of many of them. vii viii Preface Perhaps it is impossible to attempt to present such a wealth of information in one small volume. To attempt it has been a great challenge. Only the reader can judge as to whether it has been successful or not. This work may be considered a “bridge document” as it contains climate change information that updates Farmer and Cook’s Climate Change Science: A Modern Synthesis, Volume 1, The Physical Climate published by Springer Publishers on January 12, 2013. Homo sapiens is a destructive species. Since evolving around 200,000 years ago, it has set about on a course of destroying Planet Earth. It began using Earth’s resources as soon as it learned it could tame fire to burn down areas of forest. As it learned to grow its own food it needed more land and the Agricultural Revolution was born around 12,000 years ago. It is not known when coal was first used as a source of energy but its use was vastly increased during the Industrial Revolution that began around 1750. H. sapiens discovered that coal, having taken millions of years to form, could easily be dug from its resting place in Earth, burned at Earth’s surface, adding carbon dioxide to the active carbon cycle. Petroleum was made a popular fuel by the internal combustion engine and production went up for petro- leum in the 1850s. Still more carbon was added to the carbon cycle from materials buried deep within the Earth. H. sapiens is continuing to disrupt the natural bal- ance of the planet by burning fossil fuels, clearing forest lands, and manufacturing cement. Las Cruces, USA, February 2014 G. Thomas Farmer Contents 1 Overview of Climate Change Science ........................... 1 1.1 Introduction ........................................... 2 1.2 Weather and Climate .................................... 5 1.3 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change .............. 5 1.4 Representative Concentration Pathways ..................... 8 1.5 Radiative Forcing ....................................... 9 1.6 Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Energy Flow .................. 10 1.7 Rising Temperature ..................................... 12 1.8 Solar Irradiance ........................................ 14 1.9 Carbon Dioxide’s Role in the Greenhouse Effect .............. 15 1.10 Carbon Dioxide and Carbon. 16 1.10.1 The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect ................... 18 1.10.2 Climate Sensitivity ............................... 18 1.10.3 Carbon Capture and Sequestration ................... 19 1.10.4 Tipping Points .................................. 20 1.11 Climate Forcing, and Climate Feedbacks .................... 22 1.11.1 Climate Forcing ................................. 23 1.11.2 Climate Feedbacks ............................... 23 1.11.3 Charles David Keeling and the Keeling Curve ......... 24 1.12 Climate Models ........................................ 24 1.13 Earth’s Atmosphere ..................................... 26 1.14 Land Surface .......................................... 27 1.15 The World Ocean ....................................... 28 1.16 Ocean-Atmosphere Interface .............................. 28 1.17 Ocean Acidification ..................................... 30 1.18 Land-Atmosphere Interface ............................... 32 1.19 Paleoclimates and Paleoclimatology ........................ 33 1.20 Rising Sea-Level ....................................... 33 1.21 The Cryosphere and Melting Glaciers ....................... 35 1.21.1 Glaciers ....................................... 36 1.21.2 Greenland Ice Sheet .............................. 36 ix x Contents 1.22 More Violent Storms .................................... 37 1.23 Deforestation .......................................... 38 1.24 Desertification ......................................... 38 1.25 Species Migration. 39 1.26 Species Extinctions ..................................... 39 1.27 Changing Seasons and Disruption of Life Cycles .............
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