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Mobile Broadband Cost and Capacity Trends

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Mobile Broadband Cost and Capacity Trends TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................ 4 DATA EXPLOSION ..................................................................................................... 6 Data Consumption ................................................................................................... 6 Wireless Versus Wireline ........................................................................................... 8 Bandwidth Management ......................................................................................... 11 Technology Drives Demand ..................................................................................... 13 Mobile Broadband Cost and Capacity Trends ............................................................. 13 WIRELESS DATA MARKET ....................................................................................... 14 Market Trends ....................................................................................................... 14 EDGE/HSPA/HSPA+/LTE Deployment ....................................................................... 15 WIRELESS TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION .................................................................... 16 Transition to 4G ..................................................................................................... 16 3GPP Evolutionary Approach ................................................................................... 19 Spectrum .............................................................................................................. 26 Architecture Evolution and Heterogeneous Networks .................................................. 30 Service Evolution ................................................................................................... 31 Voice Support ........................................................................................................ 33 Broadband-Wireless Deployment Considerations ........................................................ 33 Wi-Fi Integration and Data Offload ........................................................................... 34 Network Deployment .............................................................................................. 35 COMPETING TECHNOLOGIES .................................................................................. 38 CDMA2000 ............................................................................................................ 38 WiMAX ................................................................................................................. 39 COMPARISON OF WIRELESS TECHNOLOGIES ......................................................... 41 Data Throughput ................................................................................................... 41 HSPA+ Throughput ................................................................................................ 46 LTE Throughput ..................................................................................................... 48 Latency ................................................................................................................ 51 Spectral Efficiency.................................................................................................. 52 Cost, Volume, and Market Comparison ..................................................................... 61 CONCLUSION .......................................................................................................... 62 APPENDIX: TECHNOLOGY DETAILS ........................................................................ 64 Spectrum Bands .................................................................................................... 64 UMTS-HSPA .......................................................................................................... 66 HSDPA and HSUPA ................................................................................................. 68 Evolution of HSPA (HSPA+) ..................................................................................... 73 HSPA Voice ........................................................................................................... 84 LTE ...................................................................................................................... 86 LTE-Advanced ....................................................................................................... 96 Heterogeneous Networks and Self-Optimization ....................................................... 106 EPC .................................................................................................................... 111 Wi-Fi Integration ................................................................................................. 114 IMS .................................................................................................................... 117 Cloud Radio Access Network (RAN) ........................................................................ 118 Broadcast/Multicast Services ................................................................................. 119 UMTS TDD .......................................................................................................... 120 Mobile Broadband Explosion, Rysavy Research/4G Americas, August 2012 Page 2 TD-SCDMA .......................................................................................................... 121 EDGE/EGPRS ....................................................................................................... 121 Evolved EDGE ..................................................................................................... 124 TV White Spaces .................................................................................................. 132 ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................................. 133 ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ................................................................................ 139 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................ 140 Copyright ©2012 Rysavy Research, LLC. All rights reserved. http://www.rysavy.com Mobile Broadband Explosion, Rysavy Research/4G Americas, August 2012 Page 3 Introduction The mobile broadband market has continued to explode thanks to widespread adoption, powerful new networks, stunning new handheld devices, and more than a million mobile applications. Mobile broadband now represents the leading edge in innovation and development for computing, networking, Internet technology, and software. Major developments this past year include not only 3rd Generation (3G) ubiquity, but rapid deployment of 4th Generation (4G) networks; deepening smartphone capability; the availability of hundreds of thousands of mobile applications across multiple device ecosystems; the maturing of new form factors such as tablets; and a better understanding of what the industry needs to do to address data demands, which are growing exponentially. Over this past year, the need for additional spectrum has become particularly urgent, resulting in a number of new initiatives by industry and government. Through constant innovation, Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) with High Speed Packet Access (HSPA) technology has established itself as the global, mobile- broadband solution. Building on the phenomenal success of Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM), the GSM-HSPA ecosystem has become the most successful communications technology family ever. Through a process of constant improvement, the GSM/Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) family of technologies has not only matched or exceeded the capabilities of all competing approaches, but has significantly extended the life of each of its member technologies. HSPA remains strongly positioned to be the dominant mobile-data technology for the next five to ten years. To leverage operator investments in HSPA, the 3GPP standards body has developed a series of enhancements to create “HSPA Evolution,” also referred to as “HSPA+.” HSPA+ represents a logical development of the Wideband Code Division Multiple Access (WCDMA) approach and is complementary with the new 3GPP radio platform called 3GPP Long Term Evolution (LTE). LTE, which uses Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access (OFDMA), is seeing widespread deployment this year, particularly in the U.S., which is leading the world in LTE deployment. Simultaneously, 3GPP—recognizing the significant worldwide investments in GSM networks—has significantly increased Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution (EDGE) data capabilities through an effort called Evolved EDGE. Important aspects of radio technology evolution are techniques and architectures that increase capacity and improve performance at the cell edge. These include ever more sophisticated “smart antennas,” heterogeneous networks (Het-nets), and user equipment communicating simultaneously with multiple base stations. Combined with these improvements in radio-access technology, 3GPP has also spearheaded the development of major core-network architecture enhancements such as the IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS), the Evolved Packet Core (EPC), previously called System Architecture Evolution (SAE), and more sophisticated means of integrating non-3GPP networks such as Wi-Fi. These developments will facilitate: increased capacity, new types of services,
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