Multi-scale land use analysis for agricultural policy assessment: A model-based study in Ilocos Norte province, Philippines Promotor: Prof. dr. ir. H. van Keulen Hoogleraar bij de leerstoelgroep Plantaardige Productiesystemen Co-promotoren: Dr. ir. M.K. van Ittersum Universitair hoofddocent, Leerstoelgroep Plantaardige Productiesystemen Dr. ir. R.A. Schipper Universitair docent, Leerstoelgroep Ontwikkelingseconomie Promotiecommissie: Prof. dr. W.J.M. Heijman (Wageningen Universiteit) Prof. dr. J. Feyen (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, België) Dr. ir. B.A.M. Bouman (IRRI, Philippines) Dr. M. Hossain (IRRI, Philippines) Dit onderzoek is uitgevoerd binnen de C.T. de Wit onderzoekschool: Production Ecology and Resource Conservation. Multi-scale land use analysis for agricultural policy assessment: A model-based study in Ilocos Norte province, Philippines Alice G. Laborte Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor op gezag van de rector magnificus van Wageningen Universiteit, prof. dr. M.J. Kropff, in het openbaar te verdedigen op woensdag 10 mei 2006 des namiddags te vier uur in de Aula Alice G. Laborte (2006) Multi-scale land use analysis for agricultural policy assessment: A model-based study in Ilocos Norte province, Philippines. Laborte, A.G. –[S.l.:s.n.]. Ill. PhD thesis Wageningen University. –With ref.– With summaries in English, Dutch and Filipino. ISBN: 90-8504-412-X Abstract Laborte, A.G., 2006. Multi-scale land use analysis for agricultural policy assessment: A model-based study in Ilocos Norte province, Philippines. PhD thesis, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands. With summaries in English, Dutch and Filipino, 206 pp. Pressures on the natural resources, especially land and water, continue to increase as a result of an ever-increasing world population and continuing economic growth. These pressures originate from the many claims of stakeholders at different scales on the limited resources, and are aggravated by their different and often conflicting goals. Discussions on alternative resource uses, prioritizing different goals, and formulation and implementation of land use policies would greatly benefit from a quantitative assessment of the economic, social and environmental benefits and costs associated with the alternatives. In this study, a multi-scale and model-based approach was developed and applied in support of joint-learning, policy discussions and decision-making with respect to agricultural land use. The methodology was operationalized, in consultation with stakeholders, for the province of Ilocos Norte in the northwest of the Philippines, and its most populous municipality, Batac. Six optimization models with different specifications were developed for different spatial scales: one for the farm, four for the municipal and one for the provincial scale. Results of the farm household analysis show the comparative attractiveness of alternative agricultural technologies, although adoption behaviour with respect to these technologies is different for poor, average and better-off households. The provincial analysis provides a quantitative assessment of the trade-off involved in prioritizing economic goals over social goals of food self-sufficiency and increased employment in agriculture. Results of the municipal analysis show that limited markets, inadequate infrastructure and resource endowments of farm households strongly affect resource use and goal achievement in Batac. As the effects of these factors in the model are significant, ignoring them may result in misleading simulation results and, hence, policy conclusions. The multi-scale approach was used to quantify the effects of agricultural policies pertaining to attainment of food self-sufficiency goals, liberalization of rice prices, infrastructure improvements and volumetric water pricing on income, food production, resource use, and environmental indicators at the farm, municipal and provincial scales. Food self-sufficiency goals can be achieved but conflict with economic objectives. Liberalization of rice prices results in lower income for farmers but benefits rice consumers as a result of lower rice prices. Irrigation improvements can contribute to increased rice production, however, at the expense of income. Similarly, volumetric water pricing can result in more efficient water use at the farm and municipal scale, but at the expense of income in the short-run. Many of these results seem trivial, but the model-based analyses result in quantitative estimates for the effects on the economic, agricultural and environmental dimensions of the problem. It is anticipated that model-based analyses has a potential to play a key role in participatory land use policy formulation. Results from the multi-scale approach presented in this thesis can provide valuable information for policy development and assessment. This may enhance transparent discussions among stakeholders on the implications of various objectives and priorities at different scales for resource use. This also allows ex-ante analysis of agricultural and natural resource use policies, including assessment of the potentials of new agro-technologies. Keywords: Linear programming; Natural resource use; Policy analysis; Farm household modelling; Regional modelling; Philippines Preface In 1998, I joined the Systems Research Network for Ecoregional Land Use Planning in South and Southeast Asia (SysNet), a project coordinated by the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) in collaboration with National Agricultural Research Systems in four countries and Wageningen University and Research centre (WUR). Through this project, I learned about developing models for regional land use analysis and had opportunities to interact with planners and policymakers in the four case study sites (India, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam). I would like to thank Reimund Roetter, then SysNet Project Coordinator for hiring me and for the many professional opportunities. My work with SysNet formed the foundation for the research described in this thesis. Through this project I met Herman van Keulen and Martin van Ittersum, who later became my promoter and co-promoter, respectively. Thank you Herman for your support and for always finding time to go over my drafts and making sure that the content and English are both sound. Thank you Martin for your guidance and insightful comments which greatly improved this thesis. I am grateful to you both for the visits to IRRI and Ilocos Norte in between my first and last periods here in Wageningen, and the many email communications which helped me get through the times when I was not exactly sure what to do. Rob Schipper, my other co-promoter provided the much needed input by putting an economist’s point of view in the discussions. I am very fortunate to have an excellent supervision team. Nico de Ridder supervised me early on particularly during my first six months in Wageningen. Marrit van den Berg helped me in refining the farm household model and municipal model with endogenized prices. I could not have done these models without her help. I also thank my supervisors at IRRI, Mahabub Hossain and Suan Pheng Kam for their input in the initial phase of this research. Several past and present scientists and researchers at IRRI were helpful in the conduct of this study. I benefited a lot from discussions with Chu Thai Hoanh on regional land use modelling and ideas on possible directions to take in performing multi-scale analysis. Mercy Sombilla generated supply and demand elasticity estimates for certain commodities using IFPRI’s IMPACT model. Christian Witt and Flor Palis provided materials and helpful discussions on site specific nutrient management and integrated pest management, respectively. I thank my colleagues at the Geographic Information System-Image Processing Laboratory and Social Sciences Division (SSD) for their support. Specifically, I thank Esther Marciano and Doris Malabanan for their help in setting up my farm survey. Doris, Josie Narciso, Joyce Luis, Shiela Valencia and Nel Garcia provided me with socio-economic data and helped check some references I needed when I was in Wageningen. Pie Moya, Zeny Huelgas, and Tess Tiongco were helpful in explaining some economic terms and concepts. Annie Boling of Crop, Soil and Water Sciences and Pat Borlagdan of Agricultural Engineering provided answers to some questions on irrigation and water-related issues. Tess Rola of Communications and Publications Services took on the difficult task of translating the summary in Filipino. Maraming salamat! This research involved several trips to Ilocos Norte and several people there helped in making the trips productive. The SysNet and IRMLA team members from Mariano Marcos State University (MMSU) facilitated some of the stakeholder meetings. Epifania Agustin, Director for Research of MMSU and team leader of IRMLA- Philippines, provided valuable input and facilitated meetings with experts at MMSU on livestock, nutrient and pest management. Leah Tute answered promptly my many data and information requests. The Municipal Agricultural Office of Batac headed by Merryline Gappi helped me in contacting farmers and shared their insightful assessments of the agricultural situation in Batac. Several farmers and stakeholders in Ilocos Norte patiently sat through the interviews and meetings, and shared their views with us. Agyaman nak kanyayo! Xiang Bi, Willy Pradel, and Anne Gerdien Prins, MSc students from Wageningen, analyzed the farm survey data and developed the farm