National Risk Register 2020 edition Contents

3 Foreword 22 Chapter 4: Risk summaries 87 Societal risks 88 Industrial action 4 Chapter 1: Introduction 23 Environmental hazards 90 Widespread public disorder 5 Purpose of the National Risk Register 24 Flooding 93 Serious and Organised Crime 6 What has changed since the 2017 29 Severe weather 94 Organised immigration crime and National Risk Register? 33 Severe space weather modern slavery 6 Who has been involved in the creation 37 Volcanic eruptions 98 Firearms of this document? 39 Poor air quality 102 Drugs 42 Earthquakes 105 Bribery and corruption 7 Chapter 2: Risk assessment 107 Child sexual abuse 8 Risk matrix 45 Human and animal health 11 Reading the matrix 46 Human diseases 109 Malicious attacks 11 How are these risks identified and 50 Case study: COVID-19 110 Introduction assessed? 59 Animal diseases 113 Attacks on publicly accessible locations 12 Long-term trends 63 Antimicrobial resistance 117 Attacks on transport systems 121 Attacks on infrastructure 15 Chapter 3: Individuals and 67 Major accidents 124 Chemical, biological, radiological and communities 68 Widespread electricity failure nuclear attacks 16 Preparedness advice for the public 71 System failures 127 Cyber attacks 18 Supporting communities and volunteering 74 Major transport accidents 131 Disinformation 20 Mental health needs in emergencies 77 Industrial accidents and crises 83 Major fires 135 Risks occurring overseas 21 Vulnerable / at-risk groups 136 Risks occurring overseas

National Risk Register – 2020 edition 2 Foreword

The United Kingdom, along with the rest The 2020 National Risk Register sets out of the world, is facing the huge challenge the range of risks and challenges we face of tackling COVID-19 to protect public which have the potential to cause significant health and manage its impact on lives and disruption to the UK, and explains what livelihoods, the economy and our way of life. the government and partners are doing to mitigate these risks and how we all can The numerous ways individuals and prepare for and respond to them. organisations from across society – in both professional and voluntary capacities – have The impact of some of these risks can be joined together and made extraordinary felt beyond our home or local area, even efforts has defined our response. It has stretching beyond the borders of any single demonstrated the enduring characteristics country. COVID-19 has changed people’s of the UK as a nation of resilience, resolve, lives in the UK and across the globe, likely Penny Mordaunt MP and kindness. with long-lasting consequences. We must Paymaster General look to the future and consider how we adapt In recent years, we’ve seen these personal to those changes and take advantage of new qualities and professional responses come opportunities, while also improving our ability to the fore at times of crisis and in the face to tackle existing and emerging risks. of a diverse range of risks – from terrorist attacks, severe winter weather and flooding We all have a role to play in building a safer, to commercial failure and drone disruption of more resilient, and more prosperous UK. airport operations. Governments, individuals, communities and businesses across all four nations, along While we tackle COVID-19, we must not lose with international partners, can and must sight of the other risks and challenges that work together. By doing so, we can help to remain, some of which have increased or ensure we are as informed about the risk changed as a result of the pandemic. landscape as possible, take the right actions to strengthen our resilience and proactively tackle both current and future challenges.

National Risk Register – 2020 edition 3 Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 1: Introduction

Purpose of the The NRR is the public-facing version of It also contains information and advice for National Risk Register the National Security Risk Assessment the public. It is important that individuals and (NSRA) – a classified cross-government and households are aware of the risks that could Since the publication of the 2017 National Risk scientifically rigorous assessment of the most affect them, and what actions they can take Register (NRR), the UK has been challenged serious risks facing the UK or its interests to prepare for and respond to these risks. by many incidents – terrorist attacks in overseas. The Civil Contingencies Secretariat, The information in pages 15–21 and the London Bridge and Streatham, the collapse which is part of the Cabinet Office, is risk summaries which begin on page 22 of the Thomas Cook Group and Carillion, the responsible for co-ordinating the production include useful advice and links to further ‘Beast from the East’ winter storm, the use of of both documents. This involves working sources of information. chemical weapons in Salisbury and Amesbury, closely with a wide range of stakeholders serious flooding incidents, and the COVID-19 including other UK government departments, No risk assessment will ever be able to pandemic to name but a few. These incidents devolved administrations, the government identify and assess every possible risk – represent acute challenges to the UK, causing scientific community, intelligence and security unforeseeable risks can emerge, or previously widespread impacts to our national security agencies, and a range of independent experts identified risks can materialise in novel or and prosperity. But they are not the only risks such as industry partners and academics. surprising ways. The NRR is not a prediction that the UK has faced, or will face. Risks can of the risks that will materialise in the next two take many forms, originate inside or outside The NRR provides information on the most years, but it does help to ensure that the UK of the UK, exacerbate the likelihood or impact significant risks that could occur in the next has the right systems and resilience practices of another risk, and be felt on a national and two years and which could have a wide in place to manage risks both proactively and increasingly global scale. The UK government range of impacts on the UK. The NRR also when they arise. and devolved administrations, along with sets out what the UK government, devolved the emergency services and other local administrations and other partners are doing responders, have an important role to play about them. This document is particularly in identifying, assessing, preparing for and useful to local emergency planners, resilience responding to risks, as well as supporting professionals and businesses, helping them affected communities to recover. The to make decisions about which risks to plan COVID-19 pandemic has also highlighted the for and what the consequences of these risks critical role of the public in preparing for and are likely to be. responding to crises.

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What has changed since the 2017 For the 2020 NRR, new risk summaries are Who has been involved in the National Risk Register? included for: creation of this document?

This 2020 NRR includes a broader range • serious and organised crime risks The 2020 National Risk Register has of risks to the safety and security of the • disinformation been produced by the Civil Contingencies UK than previous iterations, reflecting • hostile state activity Secretariat in the Cabinet Office, in technical improvements to risk assessment collaboration with risk-owning departments approaches and demonstrating the full range Additionally, the following risks discussed and organisations who provided content of challenges facing the UK. in the 2017 NRR have now been formally specific to their risks in Chapter 4 and assessed and plotted on the risk matrix in the Government Communication Service The UK government’s assessment of 2020 NRR: professionals. Input was also received risks is based on a continuous cycle of from government behavioural scientists, learning lessons from real events, changes • antimicrobial resistance members of the Civil Contingencies in scientific or technical evidence and • major fires Secretariat’s independent Behavioural intelligence, and improvements to the way Science Expert Group and the Winton Centre in which the likelihood and potential impacts All risk summaries in Chapter 4 have been for Risk and Evidence Communication at the (consequences) of risks are calculated. reviewed and updated by UK government University of Cambridge. Therefore, the UK government’s assessment departments and other risk-owning bodies of some of the risks have changed since the to ensure the content is current at the time of last NRR. In some cases, the changes are the publication. result of new or improved understanding of the risk and its triggers and effects, or because The 2020 NRR assessments for pandemics of more effective monitoring and warning and High Consequence Infectious Disease systems and improvements to preparedness. outbreaks do not include COVID-19 as, at the In other cases, amendments to the NSRA’s time of writing, this is a live issue. However, underpinning method, including the impact a dedicated case study for COVID-19 is and likelihood scales, have shifted where risks included independently of the assessments are plotted in the 2020 NRR matrix compared themselves on page 50. to the 2017 iteration.

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Risk matrix

Risks in the NSRA and the NRR are represented as ‘reasonable worst case scenarios’. This means that they represent the worst plausible manifestation of that particular risk (once highly unlikely variations have been discounted) to enable relevant bodies to undertake proportionate planning. They are assessed in terms of likelihood and impact and then plotted onto a matrix, see page 9.

Instead of plotting each individual risk onto the matrix, a number of risks have been thematically grouped, bringing together risks Risks are assessed in terms of likelihood and impact. that share similar risk exposure and require similar capabilities to prepare, mitigate and respond. This is partly to bring similar risks together in a more usable way, but is also due to the sensitivity of some of the risks assessed in the NSRA. The position of each risk category on the matrix below is an average based on the positions of all the different risks that belong to that category.

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Impact *Risk not plotted in the 2017 NRR 2017 NRR the in plotted not *Risk

(of the reasonable worst case scenario using the impact indicators below) 2 Level Level Level Level Level Level C D B A E 34* 500 30 < 1 in in

33* 36* 33* 18 28 18 (of the reasonable worst case scenario of the risk occurring in the next year) next the in occurring risk the of scenario case worst reasonable the (of in 500 in 1 to 5 1 to 24 12 13 29 14 19 21 26 | 725

8* 22 8* † 5 to 25 25 5 to COVID-19 is not included in the risk matrix and is therefore not included in these risks these in included not therefore is and matrix risk the in included not is COVID-19 in 500 in 35* † 38 27* 27* † 6* 152 36* 16 17 9* 10*4 59* 11* 23 32* 37 32* 23 Likelihood Likelihood 125 to 25 in 500 in 20 31 in 500 in > 125 > 125 1 Societal Risks Major Accidents Human and Animal Health Environmental Hazards Serious and Organised Crime 38. 37. 36. 35. 34. 33. 32. 31. 30. 29. 28. 27. 26. 25. 24. 23. 22. 21. 20. 19. 18. 17. 16. 15. 14. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. Attacks Malicious

Widespread publicWidespread disorder Industrial action fires*Major Industrial accidents - non nuclear* Industrial accidents – nuclear* Systematic financialcrisis* Commercial failures* System failures accidents Major transport Widespread failures electricity diseases Animal Antimicrobial resistance* infectiousHigh consequence disease outbreaks Pandemics Wildfires Environmental disasters overseas Earthquakes quality air Poor Volcanic eruptions Severe space weather Droughts Heatwaves temperatures Low Storms waterSurface flooding River flooding flooding Coastal and organisedSerious crime– commodities* and organisedSerious crime– prosperity* and organisedSerious crime– vulnerabilities* theUndermining democratic process* attacks CBRN scale Larger attacks CBRN scale Medium Smaller scale CBRN attacks attacks Cyber transport on Attacks Attacks on infrastructure Attacks on publicly accessible locations † † 9 Chapter 2: Risk Assessment

Level Indicative impact scale indicators • Economic impacts: more than £10 billion. • Environmental damage or contamination: of city(ies) or region for more • Fatalities in the UK: more than 1000. than 5 years. • Evacuation and shelter: 100 thousand people evacuated over 3 days. • Essential services: lack of health and care services affecting 40% of the E • Public perception: extreme, widespread, prolonged impact owing to population for 30 days. significant proportions of the UK population feeling more vulnerable. • Electricity supply: national loss of electricity supply for any period or regional loss of supply for longer than 1 week. • International relations: significant damage to UK relationship with key allies. • Economic impacts: £1 billion to £10 billion. • Environmental damage or contamination: of a county OR city(ies) for • Fatalities in the UK: circa 201 to 1000. approximately 1 year. • Evacuation and shelter: 20 thousand people evacuated over 3 days. • Essential services: lack of health and care services affecting 20% of the D • Public perception: high impact owing to millions of UK citizens feeling more population for 7 days. vulnerable. • Electricity supply: major disruption to electricity supply to 1 million people for longer than 18 hours. • International relations: moderate damage to UK relationship with key allies. • Economic impacts: £100 million to £1 billion. • Environmental damage or contamination: damage to / contamination of a • Fatalities in the UK: circa 41 to 200. local area for 1 year. • Evacuation and shelter: 5 thousand people evacuated over 3 days. • Essential services: lack of health and care services affecting 10% of the population for 12 hours. C • Public perception: moderate impact owing to hundreds of thousands of UK citizens feeling more vulnerable. • Electricity supply: major disruption to electricity supply to greater than 300 thousand consumers for longer than 18 hours. • International relations: significant damage to UK relationship with international partner country / organisation. • Economic impacts: £10 million to £100 million. • Environmental damage or contamination: of the local area for 1 month OR of • Fatalities in the UK: circa 9 to 40. building for 1 year. • Evacuation and shelter: 200 to 1 thousand people evacuated over 3 days. • Essential services: lack of health and care services affecting 2% of the population for 12 hours. B • Public perception: minor impact owing to tens of thousands of UK citizens feeling more vulnerable. • Electricity supply: major disruption to electricity supply to greater than 100 thousand people for longer than 18 hours. • International relations: moderate damage to UK relationship with international partner country / organisation. • Economic impacts: less than £10 million. • Environmental damage or contamination: of a building for up to 1 month. • Fatalities in the UK: circa 1 to 8. • Essential services: lack of health and care services affecting 1% of the • Evacuation and shelter: 50 people evacuated over 3 days. population for 6 hours. A • Public perception: limited impact, small numbers of the public (less than • Electricity supply: major disruption to electricity supply to greater than tens of thousands) feeling more vulnerable. 10 thousand people for longer than 18 hours. • International relations: moderate damage to UK relationship with any other country. The impact scale indicators above set out the types and severity of impacts the UK might expect to see for the different level risks. The list above should NOT be read as a set of criteria that needs to be met in order for an assessed risk to be classified at these levels.

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Reading the matrix reflected by the matrix boxes increasing Once risks identified for inclusion in the in size, moving from the bottom left of the NSRA were agreed, each departmental The above NRR matrix presents the impact matrix to the top right. Risks have been risk owner produced a reasonable worst and likelihood of a plausible worst case plotted, using the key to the right of the case scenario for each risk in consultation scenario manifestation of each risk. Highly matrix, and grouped under headings to with, for example, their Chief Scientific unlikely variations have been discounted. It reflect the chapters in the NRR. Adviser, internal experts and analysts, other can be read as follows: departments and agencies, the intelligence How are these risks identified and community, industry and sector stakeholders, • The vertical axis shows the impact of assessed? and external scientific, academic and policy each risk. Level A is the lowest impact, subject experts. The Civil Contingencies and Level E the highest. The impact scale Risks were identified for inclusion in the last Secretariat also convened expert review is logarithmic and is reflected by the matrix NSRA (completed in 2019) by consulting groups to independently review risks, boxes increasing in size. The indicators a wide range of experts from across UK drawing on expertise from the public, private on page 10 set out the indicative impacts government departments, the devolved and academic sectors. It is these finalised expected at each level. These indicators administrations, the government scientific reasonable worst case scenarios which were should not be read as criteria that must community and outside of government (for formally assessed within the NSRA process. be met in order for a risk to be plotted at a example, in partner agencies, academic given level – some risks will have individual institutions and industry). The scenarios for Assessing likelihood impacts that are higher than the risk’s each risk were produced in consultation with overall impact assessment, others lower. experts and data was collected from a wide Departmental risk owners of non-malicious range of sources. Independent expert groups risks (e.g. severe weather events or industrial • The horizontal axis shows the annual and the chief scientific adviser community accidents) assessed the likelihood of each likelihood of each risk. The likelihood provided challenge to the final assessments, reasonable worst case scenario occurring range in each column, moving from left all of which were collectively agreed on the within the next year using extensive data, to right, is five times greater than the basis that they could plausibly occur in the modeling, and expert analysis. The resulting previous column. For example, a column next two years and could cause significant likelihood (expressed as a percentage) was three risk is approximately five times more harm and disruption in the UK, or to UK then placed on the five-box scale. likely to occur than a column two risk. interests abroad. The likelihood scale is logarithmic and is

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The likelihood of malicious risks (for example, • the impact on human welfare, including Long-term trends terrorist attacks or cyber attacks) is assessed fatalities directly attributable to the slightly differently. The intent of malicious incident, casualties resulting from the The NRR is a resource designed to provide actors to carry out an attack is balanced incident (including illness, injury and the public with our latest understanding of against an assessment of their capability to psychological impacts), and evacuation the UK risk landscape, excluding those risks conduct an attack and the vulnerability of and shelter requirements which are currently materialising. However, their potential targets to an attack. These • behavioural impacts, including changes it is important to note that many of these three parameters, informed by data and in individuals’ behaviour or public outrage risks will continue to evolve as various long- expert insight, are collated together to • the impact on essential services, term trends become increasingly influential. form one likelihood score (expressed as a including disruption to transport, Some of these trends may arise from short- percentage) which is comparable with the healthcare, education, food, water, term, acute events such as a pandemic, and likelihood of the non-malicious risks and can energy, emergency services and others might arise from longer-term chronic be plotted on the same matrix. telecommunications influences such as climate change. The NRR • economic damage, including lost does not assess the impact and likelihood of Assessing impact tourism and reduced working hours these trends occurring. Instead, the following • environmental impact section aims to provide broad context for All risks in the NSRA have a wide range of • the impact on security, including on what some of these long-term trends are and impacts, whether on individuals, businesses, law enforcement and the criminal justice some of the changes they might bring about regions or the whole country. To capture this system in the risks facing the UK. range, the NSRA assesses impact across • international impacts, including damage seven broad dimensions: to the UK’s international relations, etc. Climate change

Each of the dimensions listed above is scored Climate change is a significant crisis facing on a scale of 0 to 5 and these scores are the global community, and one we will need then combined to provide a single overall to continue to confront head-on in the UK impact score. amid warmer winters and hotter summers,

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plus more variable rainfall and more severe Geopolitics storms. Sea levels are rising by 3 millimetres a year around the UK coastline, increasing Conflict and instability around the world is likely the risk to buildings close to the shoreline. to continue, driven by resource shortages and Extreme weather – flooding, storms, regional tensions, plus the displacement of heatwaves – already causes significant large groups of people due to issues such as disruption in the UK every year, so we should climate change. Regional warfare can enable not underestimate the challenges that a more terrorist activity and an increasing number extreme climate will have on our lives, the of non-state actors will likely exert power in economy and our environment. arenas such as cyber space. These patterns of instability directly threaten British nationals The issue of climate change is by no overseas, and can cause significant tension means limited to the UK. Its impacts are felt between trading partners. Some states will worldwide by billions of people – for example also continue to push the boundaries of what is through drastic changes to food and water internationally acceptable behaviour. Sanctions supply, the displacement of large groups might be imposed more frequently to minimise of people, the occurrence of major natural conflict, which could then compromise the The influence of long-term trends on risks will be felt by disasters such as hurricanes or wildfires, trade of essential goods and services. future generations worldwide. or as an influence on health and wellbeing. Climate change, alongside other factors Technology such as globalisation, will also have a critical influence over the nature and spread of Technological advancements, combined with diseases. A global problem will require a major changes in how we live and work, will be global solution. a key factor in our risk landscape in the coming years. Technology can bring people closer More information on climate change can together, foster a truly globalised economy, be found in the 2017 UK Climate Change reduce unequal access to information around Risk Assessment (with the next iteration the world and, of course, will be fundamental due in 2022). in how the UK manages risk in the future.

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However, it can also create and enhance Health and demographics Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) – the process vulnerabilities and offer opportunities for where drugs are no longer effective at treating malicious actors to do the UK harm. Cyber Our health can be influenced by numerous infections caused by bacteria, viruses and security – covered in more detail in this factors such as age, socio-economic status parasites – is one such trend with a growing document on page 127 and in the UK’s and lifestyle. impact. The World Health Organisation National Cyber Security Strategy – is lists AMR as one of the most significant fundamental to individual and business Chronic health problems (for example risks facing the world and estimates that it resilience and will help protect everyone obesity – which can increase an individual’s could cause a 3.5% global drop in GDP by from issues including malware, viruses, vulnerability to other diseases – or poor 2050 through lost productivity, stemming ransomware, fraud, and intellectual mental health) are likely to become from a workforce that is sicker with more property theft. increasingly pervasive in the UK due to challenging ailments for longer periods of social or economic structural changes time. A 2016 review on AMR found that Other technological advances, such as the that might arise from COVID-19, lifestyle at least 700,000 people – which is likely development of artificial intelligence and changes, and population ageing. Substance an underestimate – die every year from quantum technologies, will see shifts in abuse or homelessness might also arise drug-resistant infections worldwide, and in how our economy functions and the nature of concurrently alongside the economic impacts the UK alone, there was a 9% increase in how we work in the future. While much of this of COVID-19. There will be an increasing deaths caused by drug-resistant infections change may be beneficial, we must all remain vulnerability to dementia and cancer in the between 2017 and 2018. The UK published aware of these changes and work through the UK as the population continues to age, and a new 5 year action plan to tackle AMR in implications on people and businesses in the this in turn will put increasing pressure on our 2019. This is, however, a global issue and coming years. More information can be found health and social care systems. will require global collaboration and a focus in the Government Technology Innovation on ensuring a sustainable supply chain of Strategy. drugs, as well as the correct use of them in treating illnesses. For more information please see the ‘Antimicrobial resistance’ section in Chapter 4: Risk summaries.

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Preparedness advice for the public – flood risk in England • signing up for first aid training – courses – flood risk in Scotland can provide useful, potentially lifesaving There are a number of actions the public can – flood risk in Wales skills that can be helpful in a variety of take to prepare for and respond to the risks – flood risk in Northern Ireland emergency situations included in this document. It is important for • check the Foreign, Commonwealth and • teaching children about how and when to individuals to consider these in the context Development Office’s travel advice call the emergency services of their own specific circumstances and daily before travelling overseas • speaking to their child’s school to find out routines, as well as the risks they may face • read the latest updates to the UK’s Joint their procedures in the event of different when living or working in certain locations. Terrorism Analysis Centre and Security emergency scenarios Service’s (MI5) terrorism threat levels • storing important documents (e.g. 1. Understand the risks – more information on what the different insurance documents and key contact levels mean can be found on the numbers) and important items (e.g. The public can be better prepared if they are MI5 website medication and identification) in an easily aware of and informed about the risks that • check online for more information accessible location in case of emergency are most likely to affect them. In addition to about any local or national COVID-19 or an evacuation at short notice (and not reading the information given in Chapter 4 of measures attempting to retrieve these items if it this NRR, the public can: becomes dangerous to do so) 2. Take steps to prepare • keeping some basic supplies at home • find out more about the risks in a specific such as bottled water, a torch and area by reading their local community There are a number of activities that members batteries (which is safer than candles), risk register: of the public could undertake to prepare for, and a wind-up radio to get updates during – community risk registers in England prevent, and mitigate the impacts of risks. a power cut and Wales Many of these activities can be helpful across • knowing how to turn off gas, water and – community risk registers in Scotland a range of different risks and aren’t specific to electricity in the home • sign up for flood alerts or weather one scenario. • checking the right insurance is in place for updates home or business (e.g. flood insurance) or • check online to see which areas are at Some examples of actions the public could travel insurance when planning a trip immediate risk of flooding or are likely to take include: • finding out about evacuation procedures flood in the future: in the workplace

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• joining a community group or social club Depending on the nature of the incident, If it is safe to do so, members of affected that is active in emergency preparedness those affected may be asked to ‘go in, stay in communities are encouraged to participate in • signing up to the local authority or local and tune in’ to local radio stations or check the recovery process and should be involved utilities provider’s vulnerable customer official sources of information online. Unless in determining how recovery is best achieved schemes and priority services (if eligible) there is an obvious risk to the building, going in their community. inside and seeking further information is often Depending on local risk assessments, the safest thing to do. People should always In the recovery phase of an incident, individual circumstances or current events, be guided by what they can see going on members of the public who wish to help more specific activities may be appropriate. around them – for example, it is never safe to should look out for calls for support from a Information on specific preparedness or return to a building that is on fire. local authority or national and local charities, response activities can be found in the risk to assist with the clean-up or to help others in summaries in Chapter 4. In some situations, the public may need to their community get back on their feet. evacuate for their own safety. It is important 3. Know how to respond for people not to delay evacuating their As well as providing practical assistance with properties or general locality if asked to by the community recovery, members of the public If members of the public know in advance responding authorities. Delaying or refusing to can also provide support to other individuals what to do and what to expect from evacuate may put individuals’ own lives at risk, affected by an incident, for example by responding agencies during an incident, it as well as putting emergency responders in listening to those who want to talk about could lead to a more effective response and danger if they later have to return to properties their experiences. It is important to look out reduce physical harm, stress and anxiety for to deliver the evacuation request again. for persistent signs of distress in trauma- those involved. exposed individuals and if symptoms do not 4. Help with recovery resolve with informal support, to point the In the event of an emergency, the public can affected individuals towards professional play a vital role by alerting the emergency Recovery is a complex process, beginning at help. See the NHS England website and services (dialling 999) and by providing first the earliest opportunity and running in tandem Scotland’s NHS Inform website for more aid, comfort and support while waiting for the with the emergency response. Recovery from information. emergency services to arrive. a serious incident can last months, years or even decades.

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Supporting communities and • individuals, by raising awareness of risks volunteering and preparedness actions, e.g. through social media When emergencies happen, people often feel • households, by advising on property compelled to help. Professionals and volunteers refurbishment such as property flood train for emergencies, but other members of defence measures the community can also be involved through • communities, by identifying vulnerable acts of good neighbourliness and spontaneous people and helping them access support volunteering. Bringing people and organisations • organisations, by supporting business together to form effective networks is key to continuity planning building community resilience, preparing for • systems and networks, by building emergencies, and making the best use of all trusting relationships between different available resources. local and community organisations

If the worst happens, members of the public During an emergency or crisis, the public can often rally their skills and resources to can help – if it’s safe to do so – by checking Members of the public can find out how to help their help their community. No matter who wants on neighbours and vulnerable people in the community with an emergency by visiting a local to help, what abilities they have, or whether community to see if they need any help or volunteer centre or searching online. they have volunteered previously, there may assistance. be ways for them to help. There are numerous opportunities to volunteer across the After the emergency, the public can also offer UK. Individuals can also find out how to get their help to clean up, help others to get back involved with their community before, during on their feet, or help their community to come and after an emergency by visiting a local to terms with the situation. Opportunities volunteer centre or searching online. to volunteer might be available through one of the thousands of local organisations that Before an emergency, members of the already work at the heart of communities. public, community organisations and local businesses can help to build the resilience of:

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Even if people feel motivated and able to • The ‘Scotland Cares’ campaign saw The impact of shielding and isolation for help, in many cases it is best not to just over 60,000 volunteer sign ups via the most at-risk also saw the emergence turn up at the scene of an emergency and Ready Scotland, which provided links of thousands of mutual aid groups across begin working. This could be dangerous and to register with established volunteering the UK. These self-organising, community- overwhelm the emergency services. Instead, organisations to support public services, based groups played a crucial role in helping it is best to get involved via the structures local charities and community groups. with tasks such as shopping, collecting that have been established in the local area, • In Northern Ireland, the Department prescriptions, walking dogs and providing so everyone can work safely for the benefit of Communities, the voluntary and emotional support to vulnerable and self- of those who need help. This means looking community sector and local councils isolating people in their communities. out for calls for support from a local authority, worked together to co-ordinate the or national and local charities, and most large-scale community response to the Guidance for organisations importantly, performing essential acts of good pandemic, where people volunteered to neighbourliness. undertake tasks that provided support to The UK government published the the health service and wider society. Community Resilience Development The capacity of communities to support each • In Wales, there was an unprecedented Framework and guidance on ‘planning the other was seen clearly in response to the response to the call for volunteers, co-ordination of spontaneous volunteers’ COVID-19 pandemic, when people from across building on the strong tradition of people in June 2019. These documents can help the UK came forward to help their communities. helping one another across communities. public and private organisations to appreciate People and businesses offered time the challenges that an emergency can bring • In England, over 750,000 people and resources to support local services and to make appropriate preparations. registered to join the NHS Volunteer and help each other by undertaking Responder scheme, offering their time volunteer shopper and delivery roles, and to undertake important tasks such as befriending over the phone. medicines and food collection, patient transport and providing telephone befriending to vulnerable people.

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Mental health needs in problems related to children) find it more There is good evidence that providing emergencies and crises difficult to cope in the aftermath of a traumatic psychologically-focused debriefing, or trauma event. The secondary stressors that often counselling, in the immediate post-incident In the immediate aftermath of a major incident follow crises can persist for long periods of period is not only ineffective but may cause or crisis, it is important to consider the mental time. They do not end when the emergency additional harm. Instead, it is a good idea to health needs of those who may have been service response concludes, but can continue actively monitor those who have been directly affected. well into the recovery phase of an event. or indirectly affected for a few months after a traumatic event. If their difficulties do not This includes people who were directly However, it is important to recognise that appear to be resolving, then they should be involved, such as those present at the scene while many people feel upset and distressed advised to speak to a healthcare professional of an emergency or those who became ill in the days and weeks after a traumatic who can assess whether or not they need during an infectious disease outbreak. It experience, most short-term distress formal mental health treatment. also includes emergency responders and responses resolve without the need for healthcare staff caring for people involved in professional help. Most trauma-exposed Find more information about accessing the incident. people benefit from informal support such help and what to do when feeling upset or as sharing feelings with others with similar distressed after a traumatic event at: It’s also crucial to consider people who were experiences, speaking with people they indirectly involved, such as relatives of the trust, having a supportive line manager and • NHS England website injured, sick or deceased and anyone who colleagues, sticking to a routine, paying • Scotland’s NHS Inform website may feel responsible for the incident or some attention to healthy living (trying to get • the Royal College of Psychiatrists aspect of the response. enough sleep, exercise, regular meals) and letting some time pass. All of these More general advice and support related to There is strong evidence that people who approaches may be beneficial to someone’s mental health and wellbeing can be found on have been exposed to a traumatic event, and mental health, but if adverse symptoms do the NHS Every Mind Matters website. who experience other significantly stressful persist a person should always seek further circumstances (such as financial issues or help from their GP.

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Vulnerable / at-risk groups Individuals within these groups are likely This list is not exhaustive, but illustrates to experience higher levels of morbidity the wide range of groups who could be The UK is faced with a wide range of risks and mortality in comparison to the general considered (or could become) vulnerable in that could have a disproportionate impact on population. They are also more likely to the context of a pandemic. specific vulnerable and at-risk groups. suffer financial hardship either as a direct or indirect consequence of a risk materialising. Vulnerable groups are not static entities. For example, across the world we have seen Individuals who might be considered vulnerable previous events place an inequitable burden in the context of one risk might not be for on individuals such as: another, or they might even be considered more resilient than the general population. • those with pre-existing mental or physical For example, an older adult might be more health conditions or disabilities (whether vulnerable to the health impacts of a pandemic, living in the community or in long-term but may be considered more resilient to care facilities) certain aspects of a flooding scenario, if past • older adults experiences have helped them to prepare. • children • pregnant women The risks discussed in Chapter 4 could result • individuals from certain ethnic in unequal impacts for individuals. Every backgrounds scenario is different but, when planning for • healthcare and other frontline workers and responding to these risks, planners from • informal or self-employed workers national government, local government and • those in lower socio-economic groups or community groups all have an important role

Some risks could have a disproportionate impact on specific who are financially insecure to play in mitigating the disproportionate vulnerable and at-risk groups. • individuals exposed to abuse or violence impacts on these individuals. • tourists • migrants • those who are socially isolated • individuals with less knowledge and experience related to specific risks

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Flooding When flooding occurs, infrastructure (such as Storm surges bridges) and flood defences can sometimes be What’s the risk? overwhelmed with little, if any, notice, leading Low atmospheric pressure allows the to additional disruption. It is also possible for sea’s surface to bulge upwards in Flooding can have a devastating and long- all three forms of flooding to occur in different what is called a ‘storm surge’. If strong term impact on people’s lives. Everywhere locations around the UK at the same time. persistent onshore winds occur, these in the UK is at risk from at least one form increase the height of the surge and of flooding. There are three main types of Consequences of flooding may include: generate waves that can damage the flooding considered within this document: coastline. Surges can occur at any • fatalities and casualties (physical and point on the tidal cycle. While they rarely • coastal (where high tides and storm surges psychological) cause flooding at low tide, they can combine to cause the sea to flood inland) • evacuation and shelter (sometimes long- cause significant flooding when they • rivers and streams, known as ‘fluvial term) of residents and employees occur at high tide. flooding’ (where waterways overflow their • widespread damage to property and banks into surrounding areas) infrastructure • surface water (where rainfall overwhelms • disruption to essential services, drainage systems) particularly transport and energy • environmental damage or contamination Some flood risks are tied to specific (particularly by sewage) geographic features such as coastline or flood plains (low-lying land near a river), but surface The UK’s Climate Change Risk Assessment, water flooding can occur in a wide variety of last published in 2017, highlighted that more locations including towns or cities far from the intense rainfall, more extreme weather and sea or rivers. Surface water flooding is also wetter winters are projected to increase the particularly difficult to forecast with accuracy threat of damage and disruption as a result of and can happen at very short notice. all types of flooding.

Storm surges can damage the coastline.

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Have such events happened before? Utilities have also been impacted. United The Scottish Government is also investing an Utilities suffered damage to a water main extra £150 million in flood risk management The winter of 2019–20 was wetter than during Storm Ciara, which resulted in over a five-year period from 2021–22. This average for the UK, causing major flooding in approximately 5,500 properties in Cumbria investment complements the £42 million November and December 2019. The weather losing water supply. Over 25,000 customers provided annually to local authorities to in February and March 2020 was also across the country had disruption to provide flood protection schemes throughout particularly unsettled, with three subsequent power supplies following the impact of Scotland. named storms causing widespread Storm Dennis. disruption. Named storms are likely to cause Between 2015 and 2020, the Department significant impacts and lead to the Met Office What’s being done about the risk? for Infrastructure in Northern Ireland spent issuing amber or red weather warnings. over £39 million on flood defence work Reducing vulnerability and procured approximately 1.5 miles of Between 8 February and 16 February, most of temporary flood barriers which can be the UK saw the equivalent of an entire month’s Flood defences transported to protect places in need. rainfall. Across east Wales, the West Midlands, Between 2015 and 2021, the UK government and an area from the Pennines to Edinburgh, is spending over £1 billion in England on The Welsh Government committed over this was even higher, at 150% of an average maintaining flood defences and £2.6 billion £390 million to flood and coastal risk month’s rainfall. Over 200% of the monthly on better protecting 300,000 homes. Starting management between 2016 and 2021, average rainfall fell in parts of the Pennines, in 2021, the government will invest a further benefitting over 45,000 properties. The and Herefordshire and Worcestershire. £5.2 billion in a six-year capital investment 2019 Coastal Risk Management Programme programme for flood defences in England. supported an additional £150 million of On 17 February 2020, the Environment Agency This investment will better protect 336,000 investment in response to climate change issued 632 flood warnings and flood alerts: the properties from flooding and coastal erosion. and the actions set out in the Shoreline highest one-day total since the system went The government will also provide an additional Management Plans. live in 2005. More than 128,000 properties £120 million to repair flood defences in England were protected by Environment Agency which were damaged in winter 2019–20 Resilient construction defences, five fatalities were confirmed as a flooding. The Environment Agency has invested Increasing numbers of new construction result of the flooding, and more than 3,000 in 25 miles of temporary barriers which can projects have flood resilience embedded from properties were flooded in England. be transported to protect places in need. the outset. Guidance on resilient construction

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is available through an industry-led code The department also operates a structured for delivering property flood resilience in of practice for retrofitting and new builds, watercourse maintenance regime. Scotland. plus two relevant British Standards for resilient construction (BS85500:2015, due The new National Strategy for Flood and The Department for Infrastructure in Northern to be updated in winter 2021) and testing of Coastal Erosion Risk Management in Ireland currently has a regional programme of resistance products (BS851188:2019). Wales sets out the strategic approach and community engagement in over 30 local areas actions in managing risk from all sources. to improve their resilience to flooding. The Managing water flow This strengthens policies on how the risk to department has also invested approximately Across the UK, strategic use of dredging, communities will be managed over the next £1 million in a Homeowner Flood Protection reservoirs and barriers, plus the use of the 10 years and the wider issues facing the Grant Scheme. local environment – through, for example, tree Welsh population over the next century. planting – are used to reduce flood risk. The Welsh Government introduced a new Within Scotland, the 32 local authorities Natural Flood Management programme in The Department for Environment, Food and maintain coastal and flood defences. The 2020 to further encourage its use and learn Rural Affairs is increasing the number of water Scottish Government is developing policy more about its benefits and limitations. management schemes within and across improvements to increase Scotland’s use of Eligible projects receive 100% grant funding catchments to reduce flood risk and help blue-green infrastructure for drainage and towards delivery and monitoring for the first manage drought risk. This includes looking flood management. two years. at opportunities for any nationally strategic infrastructure and promoting actions which Place-based resilience schemes Better predictions prevent and better manage the impacts of The UK government is providing £200 million surface water flooding. This is outlined in the over six years to help over 25 local areas in Monitoring and forecasting systems flood and coastal erosion risk management England to take forward wider innovative Sophisticated systems are used to anticipate policy statement. actions that improve their resilience to flooding and provide early warning to flooding and coastal erosion. areas likely to be affected. The UK’s flood The Department for Infrastructure in Northern forecasting centre continues to improve the Ireland maintains over 500 kilometres of The Scottish Government has worked accuracy and communication of the advance coastal and fluvial defences and 6,900 with the Property Flood Resilience Delivery warning information it provides to government kilometres of designated watercourses. Group and in 2019 launched an action plan and local responders.

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National Flood Resilience Review Flood Forecasting Centres The review has improved the UK The centres are partnerships between the government’s understanding of some of the Met Office and the Environment Agency worst plausible scenarios for coastal and river (alongside close collaboration and financial flooding. support from Natural Resources Wales), and the Scottish Environment Protection Improved co-ordination Agency. They bring together expertise on flood monitoring, forecasting and warnings. National Flood Response Centre The Department for Infrastructure in Northern This collaboration between the Department Ireland also works closely with the Met Office for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and in managing flood risks. the Civil Contingencies Secretariat in the Cabinet Office facilitates continuous cross- Local resilience and preparedness government situational awareness and rapid Local Resilience Forums in England and co-ordination of the central government Wales, Regional Resilience Partnerships in response. This ensures effective decision- Scotland, and Emergency Preparedness making in significant flooding emergencies. Groups in Northern Ireland assess local flooding risks, develop contingency plans Flood Risk Management Programme and review them. The programme aims to reduce the likelihood and effects of flooding in England. Similar activity is conducted by all devolved administrations.

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Useful information and advice Live flood alerts are available by postcode: Additional online resources

Bodies working hard to manage flood risks • live England flood alerts • Sign up for flood alerts by phone, text around the UK include: • live Wales flood alerts or email • live Scotland flood alerts • Met Office Flooding: Health guidance and advice • Environment Agency The 24 / 7 Floodline offers advice on what to • Scottish Environment Protection Agency do before, during and after flooding: • Check local flood risk • Natural Resources Wales • Flood defences and coastal change • Northern Ireland Department for • England, Wales and Scotland: Infrastructure 0345 988 1188 Key flooding organisations by nation • local authorities • Northern Ireland: 0300 2000 100 • Environment Agency (England) There are a variety of free, easy-to-use tools • Scottish Environment Protection to help individuals stay informed and protect Agency themselves, their families, property and • Natural Resources Wales businesses. These include easily accessible • Northern Ireland Department for online information regarding flood risk, Infrastructure weather alerts and warnings, and local river level alerts.

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Severe weather The government assesses the risk from four Have such events happened before? main types of severe weather: What’s the risk? Examples of severe weather events include: • storms and gales with damaging wind The UK sits in the path of predominantly speeds and possible lightning • a storm on 16 October 1987, which westerly winds where low pressure weather • low (sub-zero) temperatures and heavy brought down 15 million trees in systems – and the clouds and rain that come snow for prolonged periods south‑east England and caused dozens with them – frequently move eastwards or • heatwaves with high temperatures lasting of deaths north-eastwards across the North Atlantic several weeks, harming peoples’ health • the ‘Burns Day’ storm on 25 January and then across the UK. This typically brings • drought as a result of a lack of rainfall 1990, which killed 47 people across the unsettled and windy weather, particularly over several years, leading to water British Isles in winter. Summers in the UK are usually shortages • the ‘St Jude’s Day’ storm on 28 October cooler than those on the European continent, 2013 which caused four deaths as a whereas our winters are often much milder. Consequences of severe weather may result of falling trees, severe disruption include: to transport and left more than 850,000 Climate change has already altered the risk homes without electricity of certain types of extreme UK weather and • fatalities and casualties (physical and further changes are expected in the future. psychological), particularly among The October storms caused significantly Extreme heat has become more likely, while vulnerable groups (such as older adults) more damage to trees as they still held their the risk of extreme cold has decreased. Both • evacuation and shelter of residents or leaves, making it easier for strong winds to of these trends are expected to continue over employees of homes and businesses damage or uproot them. the coming decades. The evidence is less • widespread damage to property and clear with regard to storms and droughts, infrastructure In late February and early March 2018, the UK but it does suggest that future storm risk will • disruption to essential services, experienced a spell of severe winter weather increase while future drought risk is uncertain. particularly transport, water supply, with very low temperatures and significant There is a trend toward wetter winters and energy and communications snowfall. This event became known as ‘The drier summers, leading to an increasingly • additional pressure on healthcare Beast from the East’ in the media and led to complex and challenging picture. • environmental damage widespread impacts across the UK.

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Roads were closed, numerous road traffic Over the past 40 years or so, England has Publicly-available guidance collisions happened, and hundreds of cars experienced five long-duration droughts were stranded overnight in both Scotland and (lasting over 6 months) and two shorter Warnings England, including on the A31 in Hampshire periods of drought. Drought in the other UK The Met Office uses a colour-coded system and the M80 in Scotland. Rail services were nations is rare. During the 2010–12 drought, to show the likelihood and impact of expected also severely disrupted with numerous parts of south-east and eastern England severe weather. services cancelled, and in some instances recorded their lowest 18-month rainfall total passengers found themselves stranded on in over 100 years. Temporary hosepipe bans High temperatures trains in between stations. The impact on were applied to 20 million customers, and the As part of Public Health England’s Heatwave air transport was evidenced by Glasgow environment and agricultural sectors were Plan for England, the ‘Heat-Health Airport’s closure on 28 February. disrupted. Drought has the longest advance Watch’ service in England provides an alert warning times of the severe weather types. when temperatures are expected to rise Thousands of schools across the UK were significantly. Advice and guidance for each closed, and many areas suffered power What’s being done about the risk? UK nation is available below. cuts. Isolated communities and farms across the North Pennines received supplies by Forecasting Cold weather helicopter. Tragically, one individual died after As part of Public Health England’s Cold falling into a frozen lake in a London park. Met Office Weather Plan for England, the ‘Cold The Met Office provides 24 / 7 weather Weather Alerts’ service in England provides In August 2003, a UK heatwave lasted coverage and forecasting across the UK. alerts when the average temperature is 10 days and resulted in over 2,000 deaths. forecast to fall below a certain level. It Temperatures reached what was then a Collaborative monitoring also alerts the public when heavy snow record 38.5°C in Faversham, England and The Environment Agency, Scottish Environment or widespread ice is forecast. Advice and 33°C in Anglesey, Wales. High temperature Protection Agency, Natural Resources Wales guidance for each UK nation is available records are now being broken across the and the Northern Ireland Department for below. There’s also additional cold weather UK with increasing frequency, most recently Infrastructure work hard to predict and monitor guidance for Wales. in 2019 when a temperature of 38.7°C was severe weather. Links to information sources recorded in Cambridge. are at the bottom of the next page.

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Campaigns Drought planning Government public information campaigns Water companies have a statutory duty to such as ‘WeatherReady’ ‘Get ready for plan for drought, and their plans include a winter’ and ‘Ready Scotland’ give tailored range of actions to manage the supply and advice, particularly for vulnerable people. demand of water. The Environment Agency The public health agencies in each UK nation also has a drought response framework may also employ bespoke campaigns during which sets out how the agency works with severe weather events. the government, water companies and others to manage water resources during a Severe weather planning and response drought in England. Natural Resources Wales Local and central government work with maintains plans for dealing with droughts in infrastructure operators and emergency Wales, as does the Scotland Environmental The effects of a drought on North Yorkshire, 1995. responders to develop response plans, so Protection Agency in Scotland. Northern they can deal with potential damage and Ireland Water prepare a ‘Water Resource and restore utilities and travel routes as quickly as Supply Resilience Plan’ every six years. possible. Where the demand for resources outstrips what is available, military support Emergency Drought Orders may be requested under Military Aid to the To protect essential water supplies, legislation Civil Authorities (‘MACA’) arrangements. allows restrictions to be phased in, starting with non-essential water uses such as watering a garden with a hosepipe.

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Useful information and advice

When severe weather is forecast, the Met Office will issue warnings using the National Severe Weather Warning Service. These warnings, along with other weather forecasts, give the latest information about where and when severe weather can be expected. They also describe some of the impacts that may occur.

In particular, the public should look out for information on named storms. A storm will be named when it has the potential to lead to notable impacts. The Met Office UK Storm Centre has more information on Storm Naming.

Weather warnings, forecasts and general advice about how to prepare for severe weather can be found on the Met Office website.

The 24 / 7 Met Office Weather Desk can offer more information: 0370 900 0100.

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Severe space weather • temporary outages of on-board satellite Did you know? electronics and possible damage to (or What’s the risk? total failure of) satellites, which would The Earth creates a magnetic disrupt satellite television broadcasts and field around our planet called the The term ‘space weather’ describes a series reduce the accuracy of weather forecasts magnetosphere. The magnetosphere of phenomena originating from the sun. The • disruption to essential services, protects us from harmful radiation in three key phenomena that lead to most space particularly transport, retail finance, the manner of a planetary shield. Solar weather impacts are: energy and communications flares, energetic particles or CMEs • increases in radiation doses high in the can hit the magnetosphere, and this • solar flares – the energy from these atmosphere and in space interaction can disrupt technologies reaches Earth within a few minutes and such as electricity networks and can cause radio blackouts Have such events happened before? services that rely on communication • solar energetic particles – these arrive with, or are enabled by, spacecraft. at Earth around 15 minutes to a few hours Day-to-day space weather causes the Aurora after they occur, and cause solar radiation Borealis (the Northern Lights) in polar regions, storms which can potentially harm but strong geomagnetic storms deflect these Day-to-day space weather causes the Aurora Borealis (the Northern Lights). astronauts and impact electronics further south and bring with them disruption • coronal mass ejections (CME) – to many vital technologies. travelling slowly, CMEs can take between 14 hours and up to four days to reach The Carrington Event in 1859 is the largest Earth, and cause geomagnetic storms space weather event since modern records with many impacts including localised began. Telegraph systems were heavily disruptions to power grids disrupted and the Aurora Borealis was sighted as far south as Mexico, the Caribbean Consequences of space weather may include: and Sub-Saharan Africa. A solar storm of similar magnitude was measured by a NASA • localised power outages satellite in July 2012, when the storm’s path • loss or disruption of services reliant on narrowly missed the Earth. satellite-enabled technologies

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Did you know? A smaller storm in 1989 tripped the What’s being done about the risk? equipment protection systems of the Hydro- Orbiting satellites are particularly Québec electricity network in Canada, Pre-event vulnerable to space weather effects resulting in a loss of power for nine hours and can be damaged or temporarily across the province. It affected millions of Understanding disabled. Even if satellites continue to homes and businesses as well as the means The Royal Academy of Engineering report operate correctly, their signals may not to travel safely, due to its impact on rail on Extreme Space Weather, published in reach the ground due to the effects of services and traffic lights on roads. 2013, analysed potential impacts of space space weather on the atmosphere. This weather on the UK’s infrastructure and is would impact many systems key to Another solar storm in 2003 caused the UK being used to inform measures to reduce the our society, including communications, aviation sector to lose some GPS functions risk. The report will be updated by 2024, as navigation, accurate timing, satellite for a day. This led to disruption and some part of the £20 million government-funded television and observation of the Earth significant delays, particularly on flights to Space Weather Innovation, Measurement, (e.g. for weather forecasts). the USA, where the same storm caused a Modelling and Risk (SWIMMR) programme. widespread aviation navigation outage of 30 hours. Strategy The government’s Space Weather Records from other severe solar storms in Preparedness Strategy, published in 2015, 1921, 1960 and 1967 describe widespread sets out the risk to the UK from extreme radio disruption and impacts on railway space weather. signalling and switching systems.

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System resilience Forecasting by partners More resilient transformers have been The UK works closely with international introduced in the electricity grid to reduce partners to share information and knowledge. the risk of failures. However, the expansion We have key relationships with the National of small satellite constellations that use Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration cheaper commercial components, together Space Weather Prediction Center in the with increased reliance on space-enabled USA and within the PECASUS consortium technologies, are likely to be increasing risks for services to international aviation. UK in some areas. These risks need to be better investment into the European Space Agency understood, and further research is needed Space Weather activities increased to around to inform effective planning and mitigation £20 million per year from 2019. The majority strategies. of this funding will be used to work with This image shows a CME leaving the sun. international partners on projects that will Forecasting by the UK improve space weather forecasting, such The Met Office Space Weather Operations as the Solar Orbiter research mission and Centre provides a 24 / 7 forecasting, warning plans for a vital dedicated space weather and alerting service that covers a range of monitoring satellite. space weather phenomena and events. The SWIMMR programme, already underway, will enhance the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre capabilities.

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Useful information and advice Additional online resources

Find out how to prepare for a power cut and • Met Office– What is space weather? what to do if one occurs using the information • Royal Academy of Engineering on page 68. ‘Extreme Space Weather’ report • Space Weather ‘Public Dialogue’ report In the event of a severe space weather event, • Health protection guidance access to and reliability of many modern • Government Space Weather enabling technologies may be compromised Preparedness Strategy for days or weeks. It may be useful to make plans and preparations that mitigate the need for access to technology and anticipate disruption to transport, satellite-enabled navigation, timing and communication services and energy.

Since the millennium, society has come to rely heavily on accurate navigation and timing services from GPS and other global navigation satellite systems, evidenced in the 2018 Blackett Review. Businesses heavily reliant on these services should explore backup options in the event of an unlikely outage. These options may range from simple actions such as using a map, to engagement with the National Timing Centre programme for resilient timing.

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Volcanic eruptions build in pressure until they eventually explode, blasting magma and rock into the What’s the risk? atmosphere in a cloud of ash, gas and other particles. Volcanic ash clouds can affect jet There are a number of volcanoes across engines and therefore disrupt air travel. The Europe that could affect the UK, such as second type, ‘effusive’ eruptions, happen Santorini in the Aegean Sea and Vesuvius when large quantities of gases are able to in Italy. However, volcanoes in Iceland (such escape freely. Both types of eruption can as Bárðarbunga and Eyjafjallajökull) are of potentially lead to long periods of air pollution most concern because they are close to the affecting people’s health, particularly if they UK, erupt frequently and – due to prevailing suffer from existing respiratory conditions. winds – are more likely to blow ash and gas These incidents can also have a damaging towards us. effect on crops.

Consequences of volcanic eruptions may Have such events happened before? include: The Fuego volcano outside Antigua, Guatemala erupted In April 2010, a relatively small explosive on February 27, 2016. • casualties (from poor air quality) eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland coincided • disruption to essential services, with north-westerly winds, resulting in particularly transport disruption to air travel across much of the UK • economic damage as disruption to air and Northern Europe for six days. travel affects business and tourism • environmental contamination, The 1783–84 Laki eruption from Grimsvötn particularly to water and agriculture in Iceland was an effusive eruption, releasing significant levels of sulphur dioxide, chlorine There are two types of volcanic eruption. and fluorine over several months. This caused ‘Explosive’ eruptions happen when thick visible pollution (in the form of a ‘dry fog’) magma reaches the surface of the volcano. across the UK and Northern Europe, mass This prevents gases from escaping, which crop failure and thousands of deaths.

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What’s being done about the risk? Improved observation Useful information and advice The Met Office has a UK-wide light detection Pre-event and ranging (LIDAR) network, which uses: The health effects of this risk are covered under poor air quality, which can be found on Collaboration • the capability to detect ash from the the next page. The International Airways Volcano Watch ground consists of nine Volcanic Ash Advisory • significantly improved satellite information For people flying to northern Europe, reports Centres located around the world. These or warnings of volcanic activity and guidance centres provide information on the movement to provide data on ash-cloud and particulate (including information on flights) will be and spread of volcanic ash. The London matter. This provides confidence in forecast available on the London Volcanic Ash centre covers Iceland and the Jan Mayen information for airlines and air traffic Advisory Service. Islands, working closely with the Icelandic management. Long and short-term options Met Office. for alternative arrangements to a test aircraft Specific information on potential air closures for an airborne volcanic ash capability are and further information can be found on Understanding and regulation being explored. These arrangements would the Civil Aviation Authority website. The aviation industry and regulators have be a replacement for MOCCA – the Met Office Travel providers can provide more relevant improved their understanding of volcanic Civil Contingencies Aircraft. information on individual flights. eruptions and how best to deal with them. Better data on how ash interacts with jet engines has enabled a new regulatory regime to be put in place since 2010. This allows airlines to fly in low ash concentrations and Additional online resources (in consultation with their airframe and engine manufacturers) to submit a safety case to the • Iceland Met Office Civil Aviation Authority to fly safely in medium- • Smithsonian Institution – volcanoes of and high-ash zones. the world database • British Geological Survey • Civil Aviation Authority safety projects

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Poor air quality Consequences of short-term exposure (over Poor air quality is a risk to everyone’s health, hours or days) to a high air pollution episode but it particularly affects: What’s the risk? may include: • people with existing heart or lung Air quality has improved significantly over • exacerbation of pre-existing health conditions (such as asthma) recent decades – however, air pollution conditions, such as asthma • pregnant women remains the largest environmental risk to UK • adverse effects on lung function • children public health, and shortens lifespans. • coughing, wheezing and shortness of • older adults breath • people who live in areas of higher This risk summary does not cover typical • increases in respiratory and pollution, for example in communities day-to-day air pollution. The focus here is on cardiovascular hospital admissions and close to busy roads short-term surges in air pollution levels. fatalities • low-income communities (research has • pressure on healthcare, particularly demonstrated that higher concentrations Short-term surges in poor air quality hospital referrals and demands on of nitrogen dioxide and PM10 have been occur primarily due to weather conditions ambulances observed in low-income communities) preventing pollution from dispersing. These • environmental damage conditions include low winds, or a layer of • economic damage The same vulnerable groups are also at warmer air trapping colder air close to the an increased risk of severe illness from ground (known as ‘temperature inversion’). COVID-19. There is however, currently no Air quality is also worsened by the ultraviolet clear evidence to suggest that air pollution light from sunshine, as it reacts with the air to has a direct link to the spread or severity of generate ozone. novel coronavirus.

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Have such events happened before? What’s being done about the risk?

Between 27 June and 7 July 2006, and Reducing likelihood between 13 and 23 July of the same year, the UK experienced two periods of extended hot Reducing pollutants weather with associated elevated ozone and The government set out commitments to harmful airborne particles. In the first episode, tackle all sources of air pollution and improve the combination of heatwave conditions, poor air quality for all through the Clean Air air quality and worsening of people’s pre- Strategy, which was published in January existing conditions led to up to 540 deaths 2019. The UK government has also published and up to 700 hospital admissions. The same a revised air quality plan for tackling nitrogen factors led to up to 630 deaths and up to 830 dioxide emissions in urban areas. hospital admissions in the second episode. Reducing the impact Periods of elevated pollution over a widespread area, and lasting more than two Forecasting days, can occur around 5 to 10 times a year Air quality forecasting is provided daily for Air pollution remains the largest environmental risk to dependent on seasonal weather conditions. A the entire UK. UK public health. five-day air quality forecast service is available on the Department for Environment, Food Health advice and Rural Affairs’ UK Air website, along The Department for Environment, Food with the latest real-world measurements. and Rural Affairs provides health advice The yearly Air Pollution in the UK report associated with each step of the Daily Air documents these pollution episodes. Quality Index, in consultation with the Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollution. Their air quality Twitter page also provides updates and information during periods of elevated pollution.

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Useful information and advice The daily pollution forecast provides advance Additional online resources warning about poor air quality. Reducing exposure to air pollution is • Clean Air Strategy 2019 especially important for at-risk groups or The Department for Environment, Food • UK Air Daily Air Quality Index those with a history of experiencing pollution- and Rural Affairs’ UK air website provides • UK Air Pollution Forecast related health problems. current and forecast levels of air pollution and • Met Office Air Pollution associated health advice. • UK Air Quality Plan for Nitrogen Dioxide The Met Office and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs both More updates are available at @DefraUKAir provide health advice on their websites. on Twitter or the free air pollution hotline: Anyone with pre-existing conditions should 0800 55 66 77. follow their doctor’s advice about exercising and managing their condition on high and Register online for air quality forecasting low air pollution days, and take simple services such as AirText in London, airAlert in precautions such as carrying an extra inhaler. Sussex and Know and Respond in Scotland.

It may also be useful to read about the long- term health effects of poor air quality.

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Earthquakes Have such events happened before? Did you know?

What’s the risk? Major Earthquake incidents in the UK are rare. The thin outer shell of the Earth is made A large earthquake occurred in 1931 near up of different segments called tectonic Earthquakes in the UK are moderately Dogger Bank, 60 miles off the east coast of plates, and the motion of these plates frequent but rarely result in large amounts of England. The intensity of the earthquake was causes stress to build up in the Earth’s damage. An earthquake powerful enough low, with buildings in Hull suffering only minor crust. Earthquakes are the result of to inflict severe damage is unlikely. Damage damage as the epicentre was a long way sudden movement along faults within from UK earthquakes is likely to be greatest away. the crust that releases stored-up stress. in historic buildings such as churches, The stress is released in the form of monuments and Victorian or Edwardian The largest UK earthquake in terms of seismic waves that spread through the terraced housing. The risk of damage will intensity occurred in 1884 in Colchester, Earth and cause the ground surface to be greatest closest to the epicentre and will Essex. Approximately 1,200 buildings shake. Earthquake activity is greatest decrease with distance. required repairs to collapsed walls, chimneys at the plate boundaries, all of which and roofs. are far away from the UK. However, Consequences of an earthquake may include: the stress exerted at the edges of a On 28 April 2007, a very shallow earthquake plate still affects the plate’s interior, • fatalities and physical and / or occurred near Folkestone, Kent, resulting so earthquakes can occur anywhere. psychological casualties in power outages, transport disruption and These are referred to as intraplate • potential evacuation and shelter of widespread superficial damage. earthquakes and are less frequent than affected individuals those at plate boundaries. • damage to property and infrastructure, Other high-intensity earthquakes have particularly to older buildings occurred in the Dover Straits (in 1382 and • minor disruption to essential 2007), south Wales (in 1727, 1775, 1832, 1868 services such as water, electricity, and 1903), the Midlands (in 1816, 1924 and telecommunications and transport 1957), and Inverness (in 1816, 1890, and 1901). networks

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What’s being done about the risk? Forecasting

Regulations Models and forecasts Seismologists cannot currently predict when Sensitive structures and where an earthquake will occur. However, Certain critical buildings such as power probability-based estimates of ground stations and nuclear sites are subject to shaking over longer periods of time (such as earthquake-resistant design requirements 50 to 100 years) can help plan for the effects and other existing obligations. and inform building design. There are several models and forecasts which have been Studies developed for the UK.

Seismic hazard studies Seismic risk mapping Studies are sometimes carried out for non- sensitive infrastructure.

Seismologists use probability-based estimates of ground Projects shaking over long periods of time to plan for the effects of earthquakes. Research Research is ongoing into the nature and driving forces of UK earthquake activity.

National seismic hazard maps Blue to green shading represents areas of These maps provide an overview of the comparatively low hazard, yellow to orange likelihood of different levels of ground shaking. shading represents areas of moderate hazard, and red to purple shading represents areas of high hazard. Mapping courtesy of British Geological Survey Open Report, OR/20/053.

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Useful information and advice If in a car, it is best to pull over and stay put, Additional online resources away from structures and powerlines. Although serious earthquakes are unlikely in • A synopsis of the European the UK, it can still be useful to know what to Anyone caught outside during an earthquake Macroseismic Scale do before, during and after an earthquake, should not run. Instead, they should drop to • What is the seismic hazard in the UK? especially if individuals are likely to visit to an the ground and cover their face and neck, • Earthquakes around the British Isles in earthquake-prone country. Travellers should preferably staying away from structures, trees the last 50 days familiarise themselves with the local advice for and powerlines. • Geohazard notes the country they are visiting. Following an earthquake, individuals should It is always worth researching the safety check properties and domestic utilities practices and escape routes from residences for any damage. If there’s any uncertainty, and workplaces. evacuate and seek advice from an expert. Beware of any fallen masonry or trees. Check If indoors during an earthquake, the general government and emergency service updates advice is to drop to the ground and take for information about damage to local cover, preferably under a table or desk, with infrastructure (such as roads and bridges) an arm or hand covering the face and neck. and whether any evacuation or rest centres Stay away from any large or loose items or are open. furniture that could fall.

National Risk Register – 2020 edition 44 Chapter 4: Risk Summaries Human and animal health Chapter 4: Risk Summaries

Human diseases than to bacteria, with the most common being pandemic influenza (flu) and another What’s the risk? being Human Immunodeficiency Viruses (HIV). However, earlier historical records show Infectious diseases in humans take a variety more bacterial pandemics such as bubonic of forms. Some have the potential to cause plague. The current pattern may change significant public health impacts, due to again in the future. the number of people they might affect in a short space of time, and the severity of Flu pandemics are natural events that happen their symptoms. Possible scenarios range when a new flu virus emerges, most likely from from significant outbreaks of ‘containable’ the animal kingdom, that few – if any – people infectious diseases, which spread slowly are immune to. There are important differences The impact of seasonal flu varies due to changes in the circulating strain each year. and / or can be more easily delayed or between ‘ordinary’ seasonal flu, which stopped but may have a high fatality rate, happens every winter, and pandemic flu. In through to pandemics such as COVID-19, a pandemic, the new virus has the potential where the whole population is at risk from a to spread quickly and cause more serious highly infectious virus, which can cause large illness in a large proportion of the population numbers of fatalities in certain groups. due to the lack of immunity. In contrast, the impact of seasonal flu varies due to changes Pandemics are the result of a new human in the circulating strain in each year. As there virus emerging and spreading around the have been four flu pandemics in the last 100 world and have occurred at infrequent and years, there is a high probability of another flu unpredictable intervals throughout human pandemic occurring, but it is impossible to history. Their global impact has ranged from predict when it might happen, or exactly what severe (influenza 1918 and COVID-19) to mild it would be like. Unlike seasonal flu, which (influenza 2009). In the last century, more occurs during winter, a flu pandemic could pandemics have been attributable to viruses emerge at any time of the year.

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Other emerging infectious diseases (new, or Some recently-emerged diseases are It is difficult to forecast the spread and impact newly recognised, diseases) could also cause classified as High Consequence Infectious of a new disease until it arrives in the UK large numbers of people to fall ill, leading to Diseases or HCIDs. These are very infectious and starts circulating. However, possible significant impacts on society. New infections diseases which typically have a high fatality consequences may include: have emerged in the human population at rate, or the ability to spread rapidly, with few – regular intervals during recent decades and or no – treatment options. HCIDs are regularly • for pandemics: they can be difficult to detect, diagnose and monitored and are less likely to cause a – up to half of the population may treat when they first appear. pandemic but could lead to significant fall ill during a flu (or flu-like illness) outbreaks. pandemic, potentially leading to up In terms of likelihood and impact, the risk of a to hundreds of thousands of deaths new infectious disease other than COVID-19 Ways of catching infectious diseases include, across the UK spreading across the UK is currently assessed but are not limited to: – significant numbers of deaths, to be lower than that of a flu pandemic. Flu has potentially across multiple waves, been the most common cause of respiratory • respiratory (airborne from one infected during a future pandemic caused by pandemics in the last 100 years, however person to another) another novel virus (not a flu or a flu- other respiratory diseases such as SARS • vector-borne (spread to humans via a like illness) (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) have third-party species such as a mosquito) – significant disruption to all sectors of spread significantly. It is also possible that • blood-borne (spread between humans society (e.g. education and businesses) more than one pandemic could occur at the via exposure to infected blood or blood • for HCIDs: same time – for example, a new flu strain products) – thousands of people experiencing may emerge during the COVID-19 pandemic. • food-borne (spread by contaminated food symptoms, potentially leading to While the emergence of the two diseases or water) hundreds of deaths would be independent of one another, their • sexual transmission – some disruption to essential services, impact on society and essential services • infection from mother to child before birth including health and education would be compounded.

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Have such events happened before? HCIDs, such as Ebola, SARS, Middle East across government, the public sector, and Respiratory syndrome (MERS), and Zika virus. various parts of the health system. Exercises There were four influenza pandemics in the are also useful to identify good practice, 20th century. The most recent flu pandemic What’s being done about the risk? share new ideas and identify potential gaps or was the H1N1 strain (swine flu) pandemic in issues within the planned response. 2009 which caused at least 18,500 deaths Pre-event worldwide. In 1918, another variant of the International collaboration same H1N1 strain (Spanish flu) killed over Planning The UK government collaborates with other 50 million people globally. The UK government is taking an evidence- governments to work on prevention, detection based approach to prepare for the next and research. The UK is also a member of the Other flu strains exist that have the potential influenza pandemic. Contingency plans exist World Health Organization, which provides to cause a pandemic, such as H7N9 (avian for many emerging infectious diseases, and member states with strategic guidance, or bird flu). This strain has caused over the UK government is continually learning technical support and co-ordination of 1,500 human cases, and hundreds of deaths the lessons from previous infectious disease activities through its influenza programme and in Asia since moving from poultry into the outbreaks, including COVID-19, to inform other health security activities. human population. However, there has preparation for future infectious disease recently been a large drop-off in the number outbreaks and pandemics. Response of people being infected. Co-ordination Detection Over the past 30 years, more than 30 new, UK government departments, devolved The UK has specialist epidemiology or newly recognised, diseases have been administrations, public health agencies and and microbiology capabilities to identify, identified. Most of these have been zoonoses the NHS share plans and information. characterise and respond to infectious – diseases that are naturally transmissible, diseases. This is followed by ongoing, directly or indirectly, from animals to humans. Testing our preparedness scalable, testing capabilities and capacity Examples of new infections that have Preparedness plans are regularly reviewed to support the ongoing response to an emerged in the human population include to ensure they reflect the latest expert advice. infectious disease outbreak or pandemic (for COVID-19 (which led to tens of thousands One way of ensuring our plans are fit for example, the expansion of COVID-19 testing of deaths during 2020 in the UK), HIV and purpose is through stress-test exercises, from 2,000 a day in March 2020 to 500,000 a which are run both locally and nationally day in November 2020).

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Clinical countermeasures Surge plans The government stores clinical Tried and tested surge plans exist to increase countermeasures including medicines (such secondary care capacity and mechanisms as antiviral medicines, which can treat flu to reduce pressure on primary care services symptoms, and antibiotics for complications (e.g. establishing the Nightingale hospitals such as pneumonia), and consumables such to ensure capacity is available during the as needles. COVID-19 pandemic).

Vaccines Societal measures Not every virus is preventable with a vaccine. Information to explain how the public can However, where possible, vaccines will be protect themselves and access services, developed at the earliest opportunity once social distancing measures and interventions new viruses are identified. For influenza, are targeted at specific sectors and where arrangements to access a vaccine industries. are in place, it is anticipated that it will take at least four to six months after a pandemic Support for individuals and business begins before a vaccine becomes available. The case for measures to support individuals Vaccines for other new viruses may take and business would be considered. longer to develop.

Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) Emergency responders have access to PPE for severe pandemics and infectious diseases. There are also protocols in place for infection control both before and during an incident.

National Risk Register – 2020 edition 49 Case study: COVID-19

Case study: COVID-19 Spread to the UK • Coordination – Government departments, devolved administrations, Background The first case of COVID-19 was confirmed public health agencies and devolved NHS in the UK on 31 January 2020. The virus branches share plans and information. COVID-19 emergence causing COVID-19 was imported into the • Surveillance – via mandatory notification UK by travellers from other countries. of disease by medical practitioners or On 30 January 2020, the WHO Director General Subsequent transmission of the virus within laboratories. declared that the outbreak of COVID-19 the UK has, as at 15th December 2020 • International collaboration constitutes a Public Health Emergency of resulted in 1,888,116 confirmed cases • Detection – specialist epidemiology and International Concern (PHEIC). The WHO of COVID-19, leading to 76,287 deaths microbiology capabilities exist within the subsequently declared the COVID-19 outbreak (measured as deaths with COVID-19 on the UK to identify, characterise and respond to be a pandemic on 11 March 2020. death certificate). to infectious diseases. • Antivirals – the Government stockpiles About COVID-19 How has HMG responded? enough antiviral medicines to help treat people showing symptoms during an Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses The UK has world-leading capabilities to influenza pandemic. with some causing less severe disease, such address significant biological risks and invests • Vaccines – vaccines will be developed as the common cold, and others causing hundreds of millions of pounds a year in as soon as possible once new influenza more severe disease, such as Middle East protecting against and preparing for disease strains are identified. respiratory syndrome (MERS). outbreaks and biological incidents. We have • Personal protective equipment undertaken significant preparedness work for (PPE) – emergency responders have Some people infected with COVID-19 only an influenza pandemic, including: personal protective equipment for severe experience mild symptoms, or no symptoms pandemics and infectious diseases. at all, and the majority of people infected • Planning – the UK Influenza Pandemic begin to recover within about seven days Preparedness Strategy covers strategic from the onset of symptoms. A minority planning, response and scientific remain unwell after seven days and may start evidence for many emerging infectious to deteriorate. Severe cases of COVID-19 can diseases. result in death.

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Our plans have been regularly tested Early response assessment of the virus by sharing and updated locally and nationally. This scientific information. preparation and experience provided the • From the outset of the UK COVID-19 • DHSC, Border Force and the Foreign, basis for rapid action at the beginning of outbreak, numerous crisis response Commonwealth and Development Office the global COVID-19 outbreak, as set out in mechanisms across government were (FCDO) assisted the repatriation of British the Coronavirus Action Plan, which was activated. This included the stand up of nationals and their dependants from published on 3 March 2020. The objectives Official and Ministerial forums to monitor, affected areas overseas. at this early stage were to contain – detect manage and respond to the crisis as it • Regulations introduced in England under early cases, follow up close contacts, and unfolded. public health legislation provided new prevent the disease taking hold in this country • Public Health England (PHE) was one of powers for medical professionals, public for as long as was reasonably possible – the first in the world to rapidly develop health professionals and the police to delay – slow the spread of the virus in this a highly sensitive test for the COVID-19 allow them to detain and direct individuals country – and research – better understand virus. Once a case was detected, our in quarantined areas at risk or suspected the virus and how to lessen its effect on the public health agencies used tried and of having the virus. UK population; innovate responses including tested procedures for rapid tracing, • During this phase patients diagnosed with diagnostics, drugs and vaccines; use the monitoring and isolation of close COVID-19 in the UK were cared for by evidence to inform the development of the contacts, with the aim of preventing specialist units with expertise in handling most effective models of care. further spread such cases, using tried and tested • Each of the UK’s national public health infection control procedures to prevent The UK Government began taking action agencies worked with Border Force, port further spread of the virus. in January prior to any cases entering the operators and carriers to enhance port • Comprehensive economic support UK and before the WHO declared a PHEIC. health measures. packages were rapidly developed to cope The Health Secretary first made a statement • Worked with WHO, the Global Health with the significant disruption to lives, jobs to update Parliament on the steps the Security Initiative (GHSI), the European and livelihoods caused by the pandemic. Government was taking in response to Centre for Disease Prevention and • In February and March, the UK COVID-19 on 23 January. Control (ECDC), and other countries government invested £24.6 million into bilaterally and through G7 and G20, in 27 COVID-19 research projects via a joint Actions taken included: supporting international efforts to detect rapid research call between UK Research the emergence of a pandemic and early

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and Innovation and the National Institute services (including investing £24 million to of their lives and local authorities and the for Health Research. increase NHS 111 call handling capacity providers of care. in England), working with the independent • Publishing an Adult Social Care Winter As the outbreak worsened the government sector to create additional capacity and Plan, which set out measures to response has escalated. The COVID-19 rapidly build temporary hospitals such prevent and contain the virus, including Winter Plan sets out a cross-Whitehall as the Nightingale units to ensure that, increasing the Infection Prevention and strategy to Spring 2021 to suppress the if required, capacity exists in the NHS Control funding and providing free PPE virus, protect the NHS and vulnerable, keep to care for patients with coronavirus, for COVID-19 needs to care homes and education and the economy going, and as well as other patients who may need domiciliary care providers until the end of provide a route back to normality. Within the urgent and emergency treatments, to March 2021. health and care sector, the primary objectives prevent the pandemic overwhelming the • As of December 2020, £1.1 billion has have been to contain and control – limiting NHS. 47,000 former professionals have been provided to implement infection virus spread to reduce impact on public joined the temporary register and over prevention and control measures. This health, the NHS and social care – and care 25,000 healthcare students joined the is in addition to the £4.6 billion that has and protect – ensuring capacity and supply NHS early. Launching the NHS Volunteer been made available to local authorities in the NHS and social care to provide care, Responders programme – supporting in England to address pressures on maintain resilience and support development 100,000 people to deliver almost 1 million local services caused by the pandemic, of a vaccine. This has been achieved in close tasks. including adult social care. collaboration with partners including local • Establishing a taskforce for the social care authorities. Social care resilience and minimising sector whose membership consisted of transmission leaders from every part of the social care Actions taken include: sector and across government. Its report • Publishing COVID-19: Our Action Plan for sets out the progress and learning from NHS resilience and recovery Adult Social Care in April 2020, setting the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic out the government’s plan for controlling in informing advice and recommendations • Building on existing plans to expand the spread of infection in care settings, to government and the social care sector. services to respond to a surge in demand supporting the workforce, maintenance of • Appointing a new Chief Nurse for Adult by reprioritising facilities, changing the use people’s independence, people at the end Social Care to represent social care of NHS buildings, expanding telemedicine

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nurses and provide clinical leadership to ‘insurance policy’. Ensuring the supply that local authorities play a key role in the workforce over winter 2020/21. of critical medicines as the EU transition helping deploy testing in ways that reach • Introducing regular testing across care period ends and building a 4-month people most at risk of having the virus and homes in England, which helps to identify stockpile of PPE. those working in settings where there is and contain outbreaks. the highest risk of transmission. • Launching the Adult Social Care NHS Test & Trace • Establishing the Joint Biosecurity Centre COVID-19 Dashboard to help local in May 2020, bringing together data authorities monitor outbreaks and • Expanding systems and deploying science, assessment and public health infection prevention measures new testing technologies to increase expertise to provide analysis and insight COVID-19 testing capacity across the on the status of the COVID-19 epidemic Supply and distribution of key products UK and our contact tracing capability. In in the UK. The Joint Biosecurity Centre England, this includes the creation of NHS supports decision-makers at a local and • Ensuring availability of all critical products, Test and Trace and the NHS COVID-19 national level to take effective action in including PPE, medicines and ventilators. App. These developments improve our response to COVID-19. Amid unprecedented global pressures ability to track COVID-19 infections, on supply chains, delivering over 4 contact persons who may otherwise have Vaccines and treatments billion items of PPE to the frontline and unknowingly spread coronavirus and to ordering over 32 billion items of PPE for save lives. • Playing a leading role in global efforts the health and social care sector. Through • We have increased test capacity from to research, produce, and deploy an the Ventilator Challenge over 14,000 2,000 per day in March to more than effective and widely available vaccine as additional ventilators were produced in 500,000 per day in November and quickly as possible. Seven candidates the UK in around three months to support deployed new testing technologies like have been secured across four different the increase in NHS intensive care rapid-turnaround lateral flow tests. This vaccines types to ensure the UK has capacity. will support the strategic objective of adequate supply should any prove safe • Securing stocks of dexamethasone and delivering rapid turnaround mass testing and effective, including 40 million doses other potential therapeutics to cover to target key groups and geographies of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 5 projected demand and continuing to such as schools, universities, cities and million doses of the Moderna vaccine. The procure critical supportive medicines regions. The government is working with government has invested significantly to for the treatment of COVID-19 as an local Directors of Public Health to ensure scale up our manufacturing capabilities to

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ensure we can manufacture a successful Non-pharmaceutical interventions that Providing timely data vaccine in large quantities. have been implemented include social • The independent Medicines and distancing policies; encouraging working • The current pandemic has highlighted Healthcare products Regulatory from home and avoidance of public the importance of Government providing Agency (MHRA) has authorised Pfizer/ transport where possible; requiring comprehensive, timely and accurate BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine for use. businesses to be COVID-secure; and data. It is vital that both operational and Government is making it available across introducing the wearing of face coverings policy level decision making is informed the UK, following the Joint Committee in shops and enclosed public spaces. by reliable data to help us make the right on Vaccination and Immunisation advice decisions, and to mitigate emergent to vaccinate those most at risk first, Protecting the most vulnerable challenges or risks. The coronavirus and those who work closest with them. epidemic has highlighted the importance 800,000 doses of the vaccine are being • Identification of over 2 million people at of taking the public with us; putting data dispensed in the weeks following the first greatest clinical risk and providing specific into the public domain and presenting vaccination on 8th December, and more advice and support. This included the statistics in a balanced and fair way will follow as part of a mass vaccination supply of over 4 million food boxes and to inform public debate and, where programme. 2.5 million medicines, supported by the necessary, public action. • The UK RECOVERY trial was the first in NHS Medicine Delivery Service from • We have done that with an the world to discover dexamethasone community pharmacies and dispensing unprecedented degree of transparency, reduces the risk of mortality by 20% for doctors, the NHS Volunteer Responder both through televised press conferences those on oxygen and 35% for ventilated Scheme, and local resilience forums; and online data publication. Our response patients. We ensured patients benefitted and funding care and support from local to the coronavirus pandemic has been immediately from this by having previously authorities. stronger and more effective because of acted to secure necessary stock. • The government constantly monitors the data on tests, cases, hospital admissions latest evidence and the evolving situation and deaths, created at rapid pace at Non-pharmaceutical interventions in local areas to keep the advice for the start of the pandemic and shared clinically extremely vulnerable people up openly on our coronavirus dashboard and • Breaking chains of transmission and to date. published as Official Statistics. disrupting the spread of the virus have • We have also been informed by a been key to the UK COVID-19 response. rapidly emergent flow of data from

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other providers – ONS detailed data on 80% of their current salary for hours not How are we now better prepared for deaths and prevalence, NHS England worked, up to a maximum of £2,500 per future pandemics? data on pressures on hospitals and JBC month. This is available across all parts of analysis of the flow and progression of the the UK, with flexibility embedded so it can be While each disease is different, requiring a disease. These data have also been used used to cover reduced hours. tailored response, the work to strengthen to responded to the strongly expressed public health systems and other capabilities need from the public for timely updates In addition to this, the Government has made developed for COVID-19 will form a key part at national and local level through the a range of other support packages available of the response to future outbreaks. These creation of the COVID-19 Dashboard and to those on low incomes who have to self- include: other publications. isolate. This includes: • The new National Institute of Health Economic support • changing the rules to allow eligible Protection (NIHP) will bring together individuals to claim for Statutory Sick Pay existing health protection systems and Throughout this crisis, the Government’s earlier; new capabilities to create a single, priority has been to protect people’s jobs and • increasing the standard allowance in scientifically led, agency to focus on the livelihoods. In the 2020 Spending Review, Universal Credit by £20 a week for one challenges posed by wider domestic it was confirmed that over £280 billion year, which means claimants will be up to and global threats to health. The NIHP had been spent in response to COVID-19 £1040 a year better off; and will build on the ‘local first’ approach - including a wide range of loan schemes, • introducing the Self-Employment Income and experience of the existing system, business grants, business rates relief, tax Support Scheme (SEISS), with the third working closely with councils and local cuts, mortgage holidays, increased welfare tranche of SEISS covering trading profits Directors of Public Health to ensure the support, Eat Out to Help Out, tax deferrals, between November 2020 to January 2021 public gets the best possible service, employment support, the Kickstart and (a taxable grant calculated at 80% of three responsive to the health needs of local Restart schemes, and funding for charities months’ average monthly trading profits communities. Its combination of world and arts institutions. and capped at £7,500). leading science with new capability at scale means that all our public health More specifically, the furlough scheme, first protection science, intelligence, testing introduced in March 2020, will be in operation and delivery expertise will be working until 31 March 2021, with employees receiving together. It will make us able to respond

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more quickly and at a scale needed to for building a bulk antibody manufacturing deal with a global pandemic, supporting capability in the UK and funding for skills the current COVID-19 response and our training has been provided to ensure we planning and response capacity for future have the specialist workforce necessary pandemics and global health challenges. for advanced medical manufacturing. • Increasing domestic production of PPE. • Britain’s innovative diagnostics industry Before the pandemic, just 1 per cent of has grown to roll out mass testing at scale PPE was produced in the UK. Thanks and develop resilient diagnostic capability to efforts during the pandemic, UK- capable of meeting demand over the based supply is anticipated to meet coming months and years. Government 70% of forecasted demand in England has more than doubled the capacity of in December for all categories of PPE the NHS and PHE laboratories and set excluding gloves. This strong domestic up an entirely new nationwide network supply base transforms our ability to of testing sites and new Lighthouse respond to a future crisis. It also has wider Laboratories and partner laboratories to benefits including the potential to create process COVID-19 swab samples. Two jobs and for the UK to become a centre new very high throughput laboratories Government interventions to stop the spread of the virus for innovative products that meet user – ‘megalabs’ – will open in early 2021. have included non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing policies. needs. These new labs will form a key part of the • Government is working to establish a UK’s national infrastructure to respond long-term vaccine legacy strategy to to future epidemics as well as adding make the UK better prepared for future diagnostic capacity for other critical pandemics. This includes building the illnesses, including cancer, cardiovascular capability to manufacture mRNA vaccines and metabolic diseases. and exploring opportunities to collaborate with several UK companies with state- of-the art DNA production. Market engagement with the private sector is underway to explore collaborative options

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Useful information and advice For most, if not all, respiratory virus The 24 / 7 NHS non-emergency numbers can pandemics (including flu and COVID-19), help with concerns about symptoms. Emerging infectious diseases are closely good hygiene and social distancing will be monitored by public health agencies and the most effective defences until a vaccine is Dial 111 for: international partners such as the World developed. Germs can live on some surfaces Health Organization. Information on specific for hours. Simple measures such as using • NHS 111 diseases will be provided as and when they tissues to catch coughs and sneezes, binning • NHS 111 Wales or GIG 111 Cymru emerge. Individuals travelling abroad should the tissue, then washing hands with soap and • NHS 24 Scotland read the travel health guidance below and water (or using a sanitiser gel) will remove • NHS 111 Northern Ireland ensure any recommended immunisations are germs and protect others by slowing the up to date. spread of the virus. Individuals with hearing loss can use the NHS 111 British Sign Language service: There’s up-to-date information and guidance Antibiotics are unlikely to have any direct online about: effect on the flu or any other virus. Because • England NHS 111 BSL interpreter antibiotics only kill bacteria, they are only of service • what the public and specific services use for people who develop complications • Scotland NHS 24 111 BSL interpreter and industries should do while COVID-19 from a virus, for example pneumonia. service continues to circulate • Wales NHS 111 BSL interpreter service • the planned public health response to a • Northern Ireland NHS 111 BSL flu pandemic, including guidance aimed at interpreter service specific services and industries Individuals with hearing loss can also call The public health advice for COVID-19 18001 111 on a textphone. and other disease outbreaks is continually reviewed by experts. By following the advice Everyone should dial 999 in emergencies. of the public health authorities in the different nations of the UK, we can both help protect individuals and reduce the impact of disease outbreaks on society.

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Additional online resources

• NHS coronavirus advice • GOV.UK coronavirus updates • Coronavirus advice for Scotland • Coronavirus advice for Wales • Coronavirus advice for Northern Ireland • NHS flu advice • Flu advice for Wales • NHS pandemic flu advice • GOV.UK infectious diseases information • GOV.UK HCID information • Information about travel vaccinations • Travel Health Pro • NHS Inform

Public health organisations by nation:

• Public Health England • Public Health Scotland • Public Health Wales • Public Health Northern Ireland

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Animal diseases Some strains can cause devastating outbreaks in poultry species. A few strains What’s the risk? can cause flu-like symptoms and even death in humans, such as certain strains Animal diseases, particularly exotic diseases of the highly pathogenic avian influenza, that are not normally present in UK animals, H5N1. The risk of avian influenza threaten the UK in a number of ways. increases during autumn and winter as migratory wild birds arrive in the UK. Some animal diseases can spread from animals to humans and cause illness • Brucellosis – brucellosis causes or fatalities. These are called ‘zoonotic abortions in animals and is spread if diseases’, and several of these are known to animals have contact with, or eat, infected affect animals and humans to the extent that substances, such as contaminated government intervention is required. feed or water, or drinking the milk of an infected animal. In humans, it causes The effective prevention, detection and long-lasting flu-like symptoms and can The risk of avian influenza increases during autumn and control of diseases in animal populations can be contracted by drinking unpasteurised winter as migratory wild birds arrive in the UK. help prevent human infections. The ‘human milk from infected animals or contact with disease’ section (page 46) has more abortion material. information on how zoonotic diseases are controlled in the human population. • Rabies – rabies is spread by bites and scratches from infected animals. It infects Examples of zoonotic diseases include: the nervous system and is almost always fatal once clinical signs appear. The UK • Avian influenza – this group of flu viruses is free from classical terrestrial rabies, can be spread by wild birds, movement of however, Lyssavirus (which causes a form infected live poultry, poultry meat, eggs, of rabies) is present in very low levels in and contaminated vehicles and materials. some UK bat populations.

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There are a large number of ‘non-zoonotic’ Consequences of animal disease outbreaks Bats infected with Lyssavirus have been diseases, which do not spread from animals may include: found every year for the last seven years and to humans. These diseases harm the UK by there have been a number of cases of equine affecting the health and welfare of the animals • human fatalities and physical or notifiable disease in the UK in 2019 and 2020. we rely on for food, trade or to maintain our psychological casualties ecosystem. Examples include: • economic damage, particularly to the Bluetongue was first recorded in the UK livestock industry and via lost trade in 2007. It was eradicated in 2008 through • Foot and mouth disease – this extremely • animal welfare impacts that may result in vaccination but UK animals are vulnerable to infectious disease can spread through the animal having to be euthanased new incursions. both direct and indirect contact, and can • impacts on wildlife, biodiversity and the be wind-borne. environment There was a devastating foot and mouth • disruption to tourism and rural communities disease outbreak in 2001 which cost the UK • Swine fever – both African and classical around £8 billion, however, greatly improved swine fever spreads via movement of Have such events happened before? response arrangements ensured that an infected pigs or contaminated food and outbreak in 2007 caused much less damage meat products (classical swine fever has Both low and highly pathogenic avian (£150 million). been recorded in the UK but African swine influenza has been recorded in poultry in the fever has not). UK several times in the last 10 years, although African swine fever is a global threat and with no human cases reported. The most is present in wild boar and domestic pigs • Bluetongue – spread between animals recent outbreaks of avian influenza occurred in some European countries. It has spread by infected midges during the warmer in November 2020. Two separate outbreaks throughout China and Asia, and over six summer months, bluetongue has multiple were confirmed, one a low pathogenic H5N2 million pigs have been killed and global pork strains which range in severity, many of strain and the other a highly pathogenic prices have been disrupted. which are circulating throughout Europe. H5N8 strain.

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What’s being done about the risk? • surveillance and alerts in consultation Containment with veterinary surgeons, industry, animal Movement controls are applied to susceptible Government takes the threat to the UK keepers and operational partners animals and animal by-products. Gatherings posed by animal diseases very seriously and • regulations on the movement of are banned and, for high-impact diseases, regularly exercises its contingency plans to livestock – movement needs to be disease control zones are declared around ensure they are fit for purpose. There are laws recorded and for many species there each infected premises. Surveillance is used and procedures in place to reduce the risk of is a standstill period of between 6 and in these zones to reduce the spread of the these diseases reaching animals in the UK, 21 days to minimise the spread of disease. Appropriate tracing of animals, and to prevent undetected diseases from undetected disease people and vehicles is also used to identify the spreading if they do. These include: source and prevent the spread of the disease. When an outbreak of an exotic notifiable • monitoring of disease outbreaks disease is detected in the UK, the Eradication around the world, with disease government responds quickly, taking Susceptible animals on infected premises surveillance for new and emerging threats measures to control and eradicate the – and in other places where they are at very and reporting on latest trends disease. These measures include: high risk of being exposed to the disease – • import controls on livestock, pets and may be humanely culled to reduce the spread zoo animals; products of animal origin Reducing the risk to public and animal of disease. and animal by-products from high-risk health areas Strict biosecurity protocols are put in place Vaccination • raising awareness and educating the at the infected premises to prevent spread Vaccines are available for some strains of public and industry of the disease risk and to humans, other animals and wildlife. These disease and may be used to supplement or how they can reduce the risk of disease include the use of appropriate personal occasionally to replace a culling policy. outbreaks occurring and respiratory protective equipment, • bans on feeding animals swill and preventative treatment of exposed people Cleansing and disinfection catering waste (including kitchen with medications such as antivirals or rabies Infected premises are cleaned, disinfected waste) which reduces the risk of live vaccination, and preventing potentially and re-stocked under supervision. It will likely animals coming into contact with infected infected meat, eggs or milk from entering the take several months or years for the UK to be materials food chain. able to declare freedom from the disease for trade purposes.

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Useful information and advice The Alerts Service can keep animal owners • England NHS 111 BSL interpreter up to date with the latest news and animal service It is a legal requirement that any suspicion of disease alerts. The Health and Safety • Scotland NHS 24 111 BSL interpreter notifiable animal disease is reported early. Executive have published guidance on work- service related zoonotic diseases. • Wales NHS 111 BSL interpreter service Concerns about the health of animals should • Northern Ireland NHS 111 BSL be discussed with a private vet. If they or the Anyone who: interpreter service animal owner suspects a notifiable disease, it should be reported using the details below: • has been bitten or scratched by a bat or Individuals with hearing loss can also call imported pet 18001 111 on a textphone. • in England, call the Department for • is concerned about rabies Environment, Food and Rural Affairs rural • is concerned about having contracted Everyone should dial 999 in emergencies. service helpline on 03000 200 301 a zoonotic disease from animals should • in Scotland, contact the local APHA field contact their GP or call the 24 / 7 NHS services office non-emergency numbers below. • in Wales, call the APHA field services Wales helpline on 0300 303 8268 The 24 / 7 NHS non-emergency numbers can • in Northern Ireland, call the DAERA help with concerns about symptoms. Helpline on 0300 200 7840 or local DAERA direct regional office Dial 111 for:

Anyone keeping livestock or poultry (even • NHS 111 as pets) should follow the strict biosecurity • NHS 111 Wales or GIG 111 Cymru practices, rules on imports and exports • NHS 24 Scotland and rules on feeding to farmed livestock to • NHS 111 Northern Ireland prevent animals from being infected with an exotic disease. Individuals with hearing loss can use the NHS 111 British Sign Language service:

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Antimicrobial resistance Resistant germs can be found in people, animals, food, and our wider environment What’s the risk? (such as in water, soil and air). They can spread between people and animals, through Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) arises when our food, and from person to person. Poor the pathogens (germs) that cause infection – infection control, poor sanitary conditions including bacteria, viruses, parasites and fungi and improper food handling all encourage the – become resistant to the drugs designed to growth and spread of AMR. kill them and can no longer be treated. There are two main parts to the problem: The most well-known type of antimicrobial are pathogens are becoming increasingly resistant antibiotics, which treat bacterial infections. to our existing antimicrobials, and there are not Other examples of antimicrobial drugs include enough new antimicrobials being developed anti-virals (e.g. HIV treatments), anti-parasitics to replace them. If this pattern continues, we (e.g. malaria treatments) and antifungals (e.g. will eventually run out of effective antibiotics. Candida treatments). This means we are heading rapidly towards a world in which existing antimicrobial AMR arises when the germs that cause infection become When antimicrobials become less effective, it treatments no longer work. resistant to the drugs designed to kill them and can no longer be treated. is easier for infections to persist and spread. Although resistance does occur naturally, the misuse and overuse of antimicrobials in human and animal medicine, plants and crops is rapidly accelerating this process.

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Potential consequences to perform, and treatments like cancer The pathogens that cause many common chemotherapy will become too risky. diseases such as tuberculosis, HIV / AIDS, • The rise and spread of AMR poses a • AMR is not only a health issue. it has malaria, sexually transmitted infections, urinary significant threat to society, endangering a significant socio-economic impact, tract infections, chest infections, bloodstream lives and disrupting health systems, food threatening productivity, food security infections and food poisoning can already systems and the economy. and trade. The combined impacts of resist a wide range of antimicrobial medicines. • Unless appropriate action is taken, drug- AMR are predicted to push millions more For example, some strains of tuberculosis are resistant infections are predicted to lead people into poverty worldwide and lead now resistant to ‘last resort’ antibiotics that are to 10 million deaths worldwide every year to a cumulative $100 trillion of lost global usually reserved for the most severe infections by 2050. This would make AMR a bigger economic output by 2050. when other treatments have failed. killer globally than cancer is now. • Antibiotics have been a lifeline during the Have such events happened before? In 2018, a patient in the UK contracted the COVID-19 pandemic. While COVID-19 first ever global case of multi-drug resistant is a virus (and therefore not treatable by AMR is currently estimated to cause gonorrhoea (sometimes referred to as ‘super antibiotics), patients on ventilators have approximately 2,000 UK deaths a year gonorrhoea’) which could not be treated been reliant on antibiotics to protect them and more than 700,000 deaths globally. by any of the recommended treatments for against developing secondary bacterial The current costs to the NHS are around the disease. infections such as pneumonia. Patients £95 million per year. recovering from COVID-19 also have What’s being done about the risk? weakened immune systems, and so are Resistant infections continue to increase. less able to fight off bacterial infections In 2018, there were over 60,000 severe National Action Plan without antibiotics. antibiotic-resistant infections in England. This The UK government set out its longer- • As resistance continues to increase, more is equivalent to 165 new antibiotic-resistant term vision for AMR to be ‘contained and people will suffer for longer as infections infections per day and represents an increase controlled’ by 2040, accompanied by a five- become more difficult to treat. Without of 9% on the previous year. year AMR national action plan. The plan working antibiotics, routine surgery like covers action across human and veterinary caesarean sections or hip replacements AMR is not a future threat: it is already medicine, food production, agriculture and will eventually become too dangerous affecting our ability to treat illnesses. research.

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Controlling antimicrobial use International collaboration Government is overseeing the implementation AMR is a global issue which cannot be of commitments which make better use tackled by one country alone. Trade and travel of antimicrobials in human and animal have made it easier for pathogens, including medicines. This includes working with those that are antimicrobial-resistant, to clinicians and the livestock sector to reduce move around the world. In 2020, the World inappropriate use of microbials, and raising Health Organization highlighted tackling AMR public awareness of the problem. to ‘protect the medicines that protect us’ as one of the 13 urgent health challenges for Fast response the next decade. The UK government works Laboratory capacity and surveillance systems closely with other countries, international are being strengthened so public health organisations, industry and other groups to teams can identify and track emerging AMR strengthen international co-operation and threats and take appropriate and timely action advocate for global action to tackle AMR. to control outbreaks. UK aid supports low- and middle-income countries to strengthen health systems, such Research as by improving the quality of care, water The UK is supporting research to understand and sanitation. how AMR spreads and to identify the most effective interventions and strategies that will benefit frontline teams. Public money is also used to support research into developing new and alternative treatments, vaccines and diagnostics. The UK is also testing a new way of paying for antimicrobials, to give pharmaceutical companies an incentive to invest in these vital medicines.

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Useful information and advice Good personal and food hygiene is an Additional online resources important way to avoid infections that need The AMR crisis is solvable if action is taken antimicrobial treatment. Vaccination is one • UK vision for antimicrobial resistance now. The public has an important part to play. of the most effective ways of preventing in 2040 By following the below steps, everyone can infections, so individuals should stay up to • UK 5-year action plan for antimicrobial help make sure our antimicrobial medicines date with vaccines and inoculations. resistance, 2019 to 2024 stay effective. • Educational resources on the Antibiotic The overuse of antimicrobials in animals also Guardian website Always follow the advice of a medical contributes to the rise and spread of AMR. • NHS hand washing guidance professional on whether antimicrobial Pet owners should keep pets healthy, stay • Food Standards Agency advice on food treatment is needed. Taking antimicrobials, up to date with pet vaccinations, and always safety and hygiene such as antibiotics, when they are not needed follow a vet’s advice on the use of antibiotics. • British Society for Antimicrobial increases the risk of pathogens developing Chemotherapy educational resources resistance. Not all infections need treatment Individuals can consider becoming an • British Veterinary Association policy on and many mild infections get better on antibiotic guardian. This involves making the responsible use of antimicrobials their own. Antibiotics do not work for viral a simple pledge to help keep antibiotics infections such as colds and flu, and most working for everyone, now and in the future. coughs and sore throats.

Where antimicrobials are prescribed, they should be taken exactly as prescribed and never shared with others or kept for later use. Unused medicines should be returned to a pharmacy so they can be safely disposed of and to prevent antimicrobials from getting into the environment.

National Risk Register – 2020 edition 66 Chapter 4: Risk Summaries Major accidents Chapter 4: Risk Summaries

Widespread electricity failure Consequences of a national loss of power Have such events happened before? may include: What’s the risk? A regional or national blackout has never • disruption to essential services such as occurred in the UK. International examples Instances of electricity failure (also referred transport, telecommunications, water, include: to as power loss or blackout) can have a food, fuel or finance number of causes including: – the severity of the disruption • a nationwide loss of power in Argentina in would depend on individual 2019 which took two days to recover from • severe weather – high winds, heavy snow, service providers’ back-up power • a power outage in South Australia in 2016 rain, and lightning strikes can damage arrangements which affected around 2 million people, network infrastructure such as power – these disruptions could lead to with power also being restored within lines or substations physical and psychological casualties two days • infrastructure failure – faults at power or fatalities due to the loss of the stations, damage to electricity lines or services we rely on, such as heating Less severe incidents from the UK include cables can disrupt the transmission of our homes during colder weather a significant outage between 22 and electricity • disruption to health care and the 28 December 2013. As a result of two severe • imbalance of supply and demand – emergency services, if the loss of power winter storms, around 900,000 UK customers electricity supply and demand need to lasts a long time suffered a loss of electricity, predominantly be perfectly balanced to keep the system • loss of lighting, heating, air conditioning in the south of England. While 876,000 operating, so if there is a shortfall of • disruption to business, for example customers had power restored within electricity being generated, electricity via lost working hours, and damage to 24 hours, 16,000 experienced disruption companies may disconnect some electronic equipment potentially resulting for longer than 48 hours. customers to keep the system balanced in data loss or corruption as a last resort A power outage caused by severe weather affected 100,000 people in Lancaster for Electricity failure can occur at a local level, several days in December 2015. across an entire region, or at a national level. The impacts of electricity failure events will vary with scale.

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More recently, in August 2019, a power Government planning disruption affected more than one million Arrangements between government, people across the UK. While power was industry, the regulator, and other parties are restored within an hour, services such as the set out in the National Emergency Plan rail network suffered longer disruption. This for Downstream Gas and Electricity. This incident was caused by a lightning strike to plan describes the national arrangements an overhead transmission line and the loss established between BEIS, the downstream of a number of generators at approximately gas and electricity industry, Ofgem and the same time. The wider disruptions were other interested parties. The arrangements caused by automatic safety systems under ensure the safe and effective management the control of individual service providers, of downstream gas and electricity supply as they reacted to frequency and voltage emergencies. fluctuations. Private sector planning What’s being done about the risk? All energy network operators have plans in place to deal with any interruptions to supply. Pre-event This includes restoring power supplies after a national electricity failure. Co-ordination In England, Scotland and Wales, the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) manages the central government response to, and recovery from, electricity disruptions. In Northern Ireland, the Department for the Economy works with Northern Ireland Electricity Networks Ltd to mitigate against and respond to power loss in Northern Ireland.

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Useful information and advice Widespread electricity failure could also Additional online resources disrupt mobile phone and landline networks, Anyone experiencing a power cut in England, internet access and access to broadcast • How to contact the relevant distribution Scotland and Wales can call the free 105 services. A wind-up radio is a good way to network operator power cut number to report it and get more get updates on the event and, if it’s safe, • Power outage guidance information. to share these updates with vulnerable • About power outages neighbours. 105 is also a way to contact the relevant distribution network operator, who is In any event, the government will be working responsible for maintaining the power lines with National Grid and Distribution Network that bring electricity to homes and businesses. Operators to restore power as soon as Distribution network operators remain the possible. same regardless of electricity supplier.

The 105 website also contains advice on how to prepare for a power cut. The advice includes simple steps such as keeping a torch and spare batteries somewhere easy to find, and switching off certain electrical appliances ready for when the power comes back on.

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System failures Consequences of system failures may The UK has never experienced an electricity include: failure affecting an entire region or the What’s the risk? country as a whole. However, similar events • disruption to or loss of essential services, have occurred internationally. In 2019, tens System failures is a broad category of risk. particularly transport, food, water, fuel, of millions of people in Argentina, Uruguay It includes: gas, finance, communications and and Chile were left without power following education a failure in the electricity system. In August • utilities failures (including gas, localised • physical and psychological casualties 2019, the UK experienced a power outage electricity failure, fuel, water and or fatalities due to the loss of essential which affected more than one million people. sewerage) services, such as gas for heating While power was restored within an hour, • financial failures (such as a loss of banking • damage to property and infrastructure services such as the rail network suffered systems or other technical difficulties) • economic damage (particularly to longer disruption. • telecommunications failures (fixed business) and mobile telephone services, and There has also been disruption to financial broadband) Have such events happened before? services. In April 2018, five million TSB customers were migrated onto a new In many cases, these incidents will only affect In April 2007, the failure of a major pumping banking platform. Many of TSB’s customers a specific place or be limited to customers of component at a wastewater treatment plant experienced significant problems accessing specific services or private companies. Many in Edinburgh left thousands without access their accounts online or via the mobile app, incidents will be dealt with locally, although to clean water and caused 1,000 litres of and had difficulties carrying out other routine some could have knock-on effects that cause partially diluted untreated sewage to be banking activities, including in person at bank problems for large numbers of people. pumped into the Firth of Forth every second. branches. The problems continued for a number of weeks. Widespread loss of electricity has the On 1 December 2019, 8,000 homes in Falkirk, potential to severely disrupt all other critical Scotland were left without gas for heating, systems, resulting in greater consequences cooking and hot water due to a system than typical utilities failures. For this reason, failure. The outage forced the closure of many it is listed separately on the matrix on page 9 schools the following day. The majority of and as an individual risk on 68. properties were reconnected within 48 hours.

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What’s being done about the risk? and rationing fuel to retail customers using legislation under the Energy Act (1976). Energy Water and sewerage Private sector planning All energy network operators have plans in Legislation place to deal with any interruptions to supply. Water companies in Great Britain are required by legislation to manage risks of failure, Government planning through the: Arrangements between government, industry, the regulator, and other parties are set out in the • Security and Emergency Measures (Water National Emergency Plan for Downstream and Sewerage Undertakers) Direction Gas and Electricity. This plan describes the (1998) national arrangements established between • Security and Emergency Measures BEIS, the downstream gas and electricity (Scottish Water) Direction (2002) industry, Ofgem and other interested parties. All energy network operators have plans in place to deal The arrangements ensure the safe and Response measures with any interruptions to supply. effective management of downstream gas All water companies can provide alternative and electricity supply emergencies. water supplies to consumers, as well as command and control centres for more Prioritisation severe emergencies. The National Emergency Plan for Fuel sets out the government’s approach to maintaining Telecommunications fuel supplies in an emergency. The plan is for use by government, the downstream oil Infrastructure investment supply industry and resilience planners for Investment, particularly by large telecoms local services. It includes the possibility of providers, improves resilience to a variety of prioritising fuel for the emergency services risks and reduces the likelihood of failure.

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Co-ordination Engagement Additional online resources The Electronic Communications, Business customers in particular are Resilience and Response Group (EC- encouraged to discuss their needs with their • National Grid gas emergencies and RRG) is an industry-run body that leads on provider to ensure they have the right levels of safety advice telecommunications resilience and best resilience in place. • Ofgem map: who operates the gas practice. EC-RRG membership includes distribution network? the main operators, the regulator Ofcom, Finance • National Emergency Plan for devolved administrations and other Downstream Gas and Electricity government departments. It is supported by Co-ordination • National Emergency Plan for Fuel the Department for Digital, Culture, Media The UK financial authorities (HM Treasury, and Sport (DCMS). Financial Conduct Authority, the Bank of England and the Prudential Regulation Planning Authority) supervise, co-ordinate and drive Extensive and well-practised plans are changes which improve the operational in place for managing emergencies. The resilience of the finance sector. National Emergency Plan for Telecoms is owned by EC-RRG. Engagement UK financial authorities test the sector’s Response resilience to IT failures and are working with EC-RRG uses a National Emergency Alert the sector to review technology resilience for Telecommunications protocol to allow arrangements at major retail firms. operators to work together in an emergency. Operators can share information and Response resources, and report into DCMS as required. UK financial authorities have an Authorities Response Framework to co-ordinate a response to incidents affecting the finance sector.

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Major transport accidents Have such events happened before?

What’s the risk? Modern safety regimes have made large- scale transport accidents very rare. However, Transport accidents occur across the UK there have been some major incidents in on a daily basis. They happen mainly on aviation, maritime, rail and road transport. public roads and involve private vehicles. There are well-practiced plans in place to Aviation deal with major transport accidents at a local level, involving emergency services and local The last major air accident in the UK was the authorities. This section focuses on rare but Kegworth accident in 1989, when a Boeing severe accidents that would require some 737 crashed close to the M1 motorway form of national response. resulting in 47 fatalities. Commercially- operated helicopters have also been involved Consequences of a major transport accident in accidents, including the 2013 Glasgow may include: accident which resulted in 10 fatalities, the 2017 Snowdonia helicopter crash with five Major transport accidents can occur across all transport • fatalities and physical and / or fatalities, and the 2018 King Power Stadium modes and can have a number of impacts. psychological casualties crash, also with five fatalities. • disruption to essential services, particularly transport A privately-operated jet crashed during an air • disruption to business and tourism display at Shoreham, West Sussex in 2015, • damage to property and infrastructure resulting in 11 fatalities on the ground. As a • possible environmental contamination result, the Civil Aviation Authority conducted (such as with fuels / cargoes) a review of UK civil air display regulation, • possible evacuation and shelter of local which led to the 2018 independent report residents or employees on UK civil flying display and special event governance.

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Maritime Rail Road

The last major accident on a UK-flagged ship A derailment in Aberdeenshire occurred in Even the largest road incidents would be at sea happened in March 1987, when the August 2020, resulting in three fatalities and highly unlikely to warrant a co-ordinated Herald of Free Enterprise capsized shortly six casualties. The Grayrigg derailment in UK government or devolved administration after leaving Zeebrugge en route to Dover. February 2007 resulted in one fatality and response. Instead, major road accidents There were 193 fatalities. 88 injuries. would be managed by local authorities and the emergency services. On inland waterways, the collision between On 10 April 2016, the cab of passenger train the Marchioness and the Bowbelle in August ‘1K77’ was damaged after a collision with a 1989 on the Thames resulted in 51 fatalities. moving tractor at Hockham Road, resulting in six people being injured. Similar collisions Marine accidents such as the Hoegh Osaka in have taken place at other level crossings, January 2015 and the Transocean Winner in including a collision involving a delivery van August 2016 resulted in large media coverage and a passenger train at Frognal Farm in due to their nature but neither have involved Teynham, Kent in October 2017. casualties or disrupted shipping to any major extent, although accidents of this nature do The first (and only) incident involving fatalities have that potential. on a modern light railway in the UK occurred in 2016. A tram in Croydon, England, derailed causing seven fatalities and 51 casualties.

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What’s being done about the risk? Safety regimes and regulation Useful information and advice There are different regimes depending on Prevention the mode of transport. The UK government Anyone involved in a transport accident works with industry who deliver safety and should call the relevant emergency services Infrastructure improvements security measures. by dialling 999. To help prevent transport There has been a substantial reduction accidents, everyone should follow the in both the frequency and severity of rail Response necessary guidance when using both public derailments, thanks to: the introduction of transport and private vehicles. automatic braking systems for trains, the Planning roll-out of train protection warning systems, All transport sector operators are required Additional online resources improvements in the management of to have plans that cover a range of possible lineside assets, and improvements to safety incidents, including those most likely to • Civil Aviation Authority management systems. As a result of these create wider impacts. These plans include • Rail Accident Investigation Branch improvements, 2018–19 was the twelfth introducing diversions where possible, based • Marine Accident Investigation Branch consecutive year without any passenger on safety and operational requirements. • Air Accidents Investigation Branch fatalities. Efforts also continue to ensure UK roads continue to be among the safest Emergency services Transport organisation by nation: in the world. These efforts range from The emergency services’ response to removing roadside hazards to collaborating transport accidents is covered by their • Department for Transport UK with police and safety partners to influence existing arrangements for responding to other • Transport Scotland driver behaviour. types of major incidents. • Transport Wales • Public Transport Northern Ireland

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Industrial accidents • disruption to essential goods and services, particularly energy, transport, What’s the risk? food and water • damage to property and infrastructure Industrial accidents can take a wide variety • economic damage of forms and their impacts vary considerably • introduction of exclusion zones in both scale and nature. In some cases, • decontamination of affected persons, these accidents will have very limited impacts property and the environment beyond the immediate area and can be dealt • evacuation, shelter and potential with locally. Others can have cascading relocation of affected individuals effects that will have a wider impact. This is a broad category of risks which includes: Have such events happened before? Buncefield oil storage terminal, Hemel Hempstead, England, 11 December 2005. • fires and explosions (e.g. affecting power Industrial accidents have happened in the UK plants, refineries or oil rigs) (information on and around the world. Chemical contamination fires in residential buildings can be found in the ‘major fires’ section on page83 ) Industrial fire In 1996, the crude oil tanker Sea Empress • chemical and biological contamination grounded off south-west Wales, spilling (such as oil spills or food contamination) In December 2005, a fire occurred at the approximately 72,000 tonnes of oil into • radiological contamination (from nuclear Buncefield Oil Storage Terminal, in Hemel the sea, damaging local environments and accidents in the UK or abroad) Hempstead, England, resulting in a number wildlife. In 2005, over 650 products were • dam breach (leading to a sudden emptying of injuries. The incident also generated taken off the shelves in UK supermarkets of reservoirs and subsequent flooding) other impacts such as environmental due to concerns about contamination of contamination, interruption to aviation fuel food products with Sudan 1, a colouring Consequences may include: supply, damage to surrounding businesses agent banned in many countries. On 20 April and domestic properties, temporary 2010, an accident occurred at the Deepwater • fatalities and physical and / or evacuations and significant economic Horizon oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico, resulting psychological casualties repercussions. in 11 immediate fatalities and almost five million barrels of spilt oil.

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Radiological contamination were confirmed cases from 14 other countries Some major hazard industries have other including the UK. The likely source of the specific safety regulations, for example Nuclear sites are designed, built and contamination was attributed to organic for pipelines and offshore gas. These are operated so that the likelihood of releases of fenugreek seeds imported from Egypt and enforced by HSE and include the Offshore radiological material in the UK is extremely used to produce sprouted seeds. Installations (Safety Case) Regulations (2005) low. Historical accidents include Windscale (SCR05), and the Offshore Installations (UK) in 1957, Three Mile Island (US) in 1979, What’s being done about the risk? (Offshore Safety Directive) (Safety Case etc) Chernobyl (Ukraine) in 1986 and Fukushima Regulations (2015). (Japan) in 2011. Of these, Chernobyl and Industrial sites Fukushima were the most severe. Exercising Legislation and regulation Emergency responders and infrastructure Dam breach and inundation There are laws which give major hazard authorities practice their response plans sites the responsibility to prevent and and capabilities for simulated emergency Dam breaches in the UK are rare. The mitigate accidents which involve dangerous scenarios. Major hazard site operators have last major breach was at the Cwm Eigiau substances: Control of Major Accident a duty to prevent industrial accidents and to dam in 1925, which caused 17 fatalities Hazard Regulations (2015) and Control of work with others, including local authorities and widespread flooding. The Malpasset Major Accident Hazard Regulations (Northern and the emergency services, to develop and dam in southern France was breached on Ireland) (2015) (COMAH). Regulators who test emergency plans for dealing with major 2 December 1959, resulting in over 400 inspect these sites and enforce the law where incidents. The Maritime and Coastguard fatalities and widespread damage. required include: Agency has plans that include emergency responders and local authorities, with Food contamination • the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) procedures for handling vessels involved in • Office for Nuclear Regulation accidents and blowouts from offshore wells. In 2011, a shiga-toxin-producing E. coli • the relevant Environment Agency in outbreak in Northern Germany caused 53 England, Scotland or Wales Specialist training and equipment fatalities and at least 3,950 casualties. Most • the Health and Safety Executive Northern Training and equipment are provided to or all victims were believed to have become Ireland (enforcing equivalent COMAH emergency responders, including those infected in Germany or France, however there Regulations in Northern Ireland) operating in high-risk and contaminated

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environments. Equipment requirements • the Radiation (Emergency Preparedness overseas. Site operators, local authorities and are reviewed in light of major incidents and and Public Information) Regulations (2019) transporters of nuclear material also review adjusted where necessary. and update multi-agency response plans The UK approach reflects international best to ensure they remain current and effective. Decontamination practice and lessons learned from Japan’s There are defined emergency planning zones Emergency responders and some industrial Fukushima nuclear accident. Transport of around civil nuclear sites. facilities are trained and equipped to nuclear material is regulated by: decontaminate those affected by incidents. Monitoring The Department for Environment, Food and • the Carriage of Dangerous Goods and The UK government regularly monitors Rural Affairs’ chemical, biological, radiological Use of Transportable Pressure Equipment radiation levels, including by ground and nuclear emergencies team (Defra’s Regulations (2009) sampling. A national radiation monitoring CBRN Emergencies team) co-ordinates • the Carriage of Dangerous Goods network and emergency response system clean-up operations and elements of (Amendment) Regulations (2019) analyses background radiation levels environmental recovery. 24 hours a day, alerting the government The industry has its own independent if abnormal levels are detected. Nuclear sites regulator in the Office for Nuclear Regulation. The UK’s approach to working with ionising Identifying lessons Legislation and regulation regulation was reviewed by the International Following Japan’s Fukushima nuclear incident Nuclear sites and the UK civil nuclear sector Atomic Energy Agency in October 2019, who in 2011, the UK government assessed the are heavily regulated by laws and regulations found UK regulators and facility operators to upgraded safety and emergency response including: be safe, secure and well-prepared to prevent arrangements for nuclear sites in the UK and respond to emergencies. and confirmed that they were satisfactory. • the Civil Contingencies Act (2004) The government regularly reviews lessons • the Nuclear Installations Act (1965) Planning, testing and exercising learned and is committed to continuous • nuclear site licensing The UK government maintains, updates and improvement, which includes adopting • environmental permitting tests response plans for nuclear accidents, international standards when they arise from • the Energy Act (2013) including for nuclear accidents that happen new evidence. • security and safety regulations

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National plan to support planners, reservoir personnel, been developed for how local authorities The UK government has a National Nuclear and responders in contingency planning and (the competent authority) and the CCA work Emergency Response Framework, which can mitigation. together in serious incidents. be used to co-ordinate a number of national capabilities in response to an (extremely Identifying lessons Guidance unlikely) large-scale radiological incident. In a 2019 incident at Toddbrook reservoir Operational guidance has been developed Safety and security is the priority, and the in Derbyshire, towns were put at risk of with public health agencies in each UK nation. approaches set out above together minimise inundation when concrete slabs were It outlines the framework for management the likelihood and extent of any radiological dislodged by large volumes of water. of food-borne illness at different levels, release. Following the incident, an independent from crisis to national emergencies. It also review was published in March 2020, outlines the functions, roles, responsibilities, Dam breaches considering the potential causes of damage procedures, standards and routine to the spillway and the wider lessons to be engagement with respective agencies that is Regulation learned. Government is taking forward the already in place. English and Welsh reservoirs are regulated recommendations in the report. under the Reservoirs Act (1975). In contrast, reservoirs in Scotland and Northern Ireland Food contamination are regulated by different legislation. Scottish reservoirs are regulated by the Reservoirs Legislation (Scotland) Act (2011). For reservoirs in The Food Standards Agency (FSA) is the Northern Ireland it is the Reservoirs Act central competent authority (CCA) for food (Northern Ireland) (2015). and feed in the UK. Since 2011, an enhanced framework for incident handling has been Flood inundation maps developed and is reviewed every year. A The Environment Agency produces these framework and a legal basis have also been maps for England. For Wales and Scotland, developed to cover how the UK liaises this is done by Natural Resources Wales and with other countries for routine, crisis and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency. emergency situations affecting the food or They conduct extensive mapping of risk areas feed chain. An enhanced framework has also

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Useful information and advice a neighbouring facility, they should always SEPA and Northern Ireland’s Department evacuate in the opposite direction of the for Infrastructure. Industrial accidents incident. Food contamination Individuals should check their local council’s It’s essential to follow the advice of the website for details of major industrial sites emergency services. Responders have The FSA publishes advice on food.gov.uk for in the local area. It’s important to be familiar emergency plans in place for local areas, consumers in the ‘food safety and hygiene’ with any advice the local authority and the and are trained and equipped to deal with section. Guidance for food businesses is in industrial site provide. This advice should industrial accidents. the ‘safer food, better business’ section. Both always followed in an emergency unless sections include advice on good hygiene, emergency responders give additional Dam breaches safe handling and preparation of food. instructions. The Health and Safety Executive’s ‘Control of Major Accident Individuals living near dams and reservoirs In a food contamination incident, the FSA Hazard’ website also has information on should be familiar with any emergency advice would review whether the routine advice nearby major industrial facilities. issued by the facility managers and the local is suitable and sufficient to manage and authority. mitigate the risks. If deemed necessary, If there is an incident at a local major specific consumer advice would be issued industrial facility (e.g. a nuclear power plant, A UK dam breach is highly unlikely. However, via food.gov.uk or via FSA social media oil processing depot or chemical plant), if a breach occurs, the emergency services accounts. Retailers would also likely publish individuals should go indoors, stay indoors will issue a warning and may decide that the information on their websites and social and tune in to updates. Doors and windows evacuation is necessary. It’s essential to media accounts. should be closed to protect from potential follow their instructions. fumes or contaminants. Individuals may be Consumers, businesses and others can asked to evacuate by emergency responders The Environment Agency provides sign up in advance to receive alerts they are if necessary. information on dam breaches and flood interested in from the FSA via food.gov.uk/ risk. Users can check whether an address news-alerts/signin If an individual suspects that the building in England is in an indicated flood zone for they are in is at immediate risk of fire from a reservoir. For other nations in the UK, this Scotland-specific food contamination information can be found on the websites of, advice is also available.

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Additional online resources

• Control of Major Accident Hazards (COMAH) • Control of Major Accident Hazards public information search • Control of Major Accident Hazards: Northern Ireland • Control of Major Accident Hazards: Northern Ireland public information

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Major fires Climate change is likely to lead to changes and Winter Hill fires) involved mutual aid in the rainfall patterns that affect the UK. If from other services and the use of specialist What’s the risk? we experience longer drier summers, this will capabilities such as high-volume pumps. increase the risk of drought and could lead to Scotland also experiences large, rural Major fires can start for many reasons, more frequent, larger wildfires. wildfires, most recently seen in Dumfries and including: Galloway in 2020. Have such events happened before? • accidents such as electrical faults, What’s being done about the risk? or human activity which combines ignition On 14 June 2017, a residential fire in Grenfell sources and fuel Tower, London, spread beyond the originating Response • malicious activity such as arson apartment, resulting in 71 fatalities and • infrastructure incidents such as sparks at least 109 injuries. One more resident Capability from electricity lines or rail transport passed away in the months after the fire, All fire and rescue services have the capability • natural phenomena such as lightning which increased the number of fatalities to fight high-rise fires. Each Fire and Rescue to 72. The Grenfell Tower Public Inquiry Authority is also required to have mutual Consequences of major fires may include: published its Phase 1 report in October assistance arrangements in place with their 2019. The government is fully committed neighbouring areas to provide additional • potential fatalities and physical and / or to supporting the work of the inquiry and support in the event of a major incident psychological casualties has committed to implementing in the most occurring. Specialist training is also given • potential evacuation and shelter of proportionate, practical and effective way to fire service personnel, particularly if they affected people and, where appropriate, legislating for, the operate in high-risk environments. • damage to property and infrastructure recommendations in the Phase 1 report. • disruption to essential services Forecasting (particularly the availability of fire and In 2018, fire and rescue services dealt with a The Met Office provides a Fire Severity Index rescue services) number of wildfires across the country. The for England and Wales, with information • economic costs, environmental damage, vast majority of these were considered on the likelihood and potential severity of air pollution and potential water business as usual, although some larger wildfires. contamination incidents (including the Saddleworth Moor

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Legislation More information on the Fire Safety Order is Inquiry recommendations available online. The Home Office is working with London Fire Fire and Rescue Services Act (2004) Brigade and the National Fire Chiefs Council The act requires fire and rescue services to Government action to ensure pace and commitment to the have regard to the Fire and Rescue National implementation of recommended operational Framework. Wellbeing support changes from the Grenfell Tower Inquiry The council has partnered with NHS England Phase One report, supported by regular and Fire and Rescue National Framework and the Central and North West London NHS detailed information on progress. The Home This framework for England requires fire Foundation Trust to develop the Grenfell Office has also provided additional funding to and rescue services to assess the risk of Health and Wellbeing Service, delivering fire and rescue services to assist in meeting emergencies occurring, including major fires. mental health support for all those affected the recommendations. This assessment must be used to inform their by the tragedy. The NHS trust has screened planning, assess their capability and identify over 10,000 people, with over 2,400 Fire Safety Bill any gaps and allocate resources across (including over 450 children) completing or The Home Office has introduced a Fire prevention, protection and response as part currently receiving treatment. An initial total Safety Bill to ensure building owners of multi- of the integrated risk management planning of 138 households, from Grenfell Tower and occupied, residential buildings fully consider process. Grenfell Walk, lost their homes and needed structure, external walls, balconies and flat permanent rehousing. entrance doors to identify the general fire Regulatory Reform (Fire Safety) Order precautions necessary as part of their fire risk (2005) Cladding removal assessment. This order applies to all non-domestic The government has made £1 billion premises in England and Wales. It requires available to fund the removal of unsafe Fire safety consultation those responsible for workplaces and other non-aluminium composite material (ACM) The consultation was published on 20 July premises to which the public have access cladding in 2020–21. This is in addition to the 2020 and sets out proposals to strengthen (including common areas of multi-occupied £600 million made available already to ensure fire safety in all regulated buildings in England. residential buildings) to assess the risk from the remediation of this unsafe cladding. This will help ensure that people are safe from fire. They must also put in place suitable fire fire regardless of where they live, stay or work. precautions to remove or mitigate risks to life. This includes setting out how the government

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proposes to implement the Grenfell Inquiry Independent inspections Phase 1 report recommendations that call for An independent inspection regime for fire changes to the law. Along with the Fire Safety and rescue services has been set up. Her Bill, the proposals complement the Building Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary Safety Bill to improve the safety of residents in for Fire and Rescue Services completed blocks of flats of all heights. the first full cycle of inspections for all 45 fire and rescue services and published the Fire Protection Board independent ‘State of Fire’ report in January The Fire Protection Board, chaired by the 2020. This provided information on the state National Fire Chiefs Council (NFCC), was of services nationally and a summary of established in September 2019 to provide a individual inspection reports. In December national forum for key fire protection issues 2020, the inspectorate will publish Fire and rescue services are required to assess the risk of emergencies occurring, including major fires. to be considered. The board will take forward inspections detailing how fire and rescue the government’s commitment that all all services operated during the COVID-19 high-rise residential buildings of 18 metres pandemic. This will provide information on and above are inspected or reviewed by what worked well and what lessons can the end of 2021. This has been supported be learnt. with £6 million of additional funding for fire and rescue authorities to support delivery of Public awareness the Building Risk Review programme, and As part of the Fire Kills campaign, the Home £4 million to establish a new NFCC central Office promotes messages around outdoor strategic protection function. A further £10 fire safety in partnership with the NFCC million has been made available to fire and and local fire and rescue authorities. The rescue authorities in England, to support the campaign includes information on preventing Protection Uplift programme. The programme accidental fires in the countryside. aims to improve protection capability and capacity, while ensuring the safety of other high-risk buildings that are not covered by the Building Risk Review.

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Useful information and advice • fire safety at work Additional online resources • fire safety in the home All fire and rescue services advise installing • specialised fire safety guidance for • Fire England smoke alarms and testing them at least shared or rented accommodation • Fire Scotland monthly. It is particularly important for • fire safety outdoors • Northern Ireland Fire and Rescue residents in tower blocks to be vigilant to the Service risk of fire and to know what to do in the event To report a fire, always call 999 and ask for • Mid and West Wales Fire and Rescue of a fire in their building. the fire services. Service • South Wales Fire and Rescue Service It’s important for individuals to be familiar Some fires are started maliciously. This is • North Wales Fire and Rescue Service with the safety codes and emergency escape a crime and any related activity should be routes for the buildings in which they live reported to the police or other appropriate or work. These could include fire escapes, local authority. It’s also possible to report emergency refuge areas or designated fire-starting activities to Crimestoppers. Both evacuation areas. Individuals should always services allow anonymity. follow instructions from the emergency services. Advice in the fire safety outdoors guidance applies equally well to wildfires. The fire and rescue services stand ready to protect individuals, families, homes and Businesses altering their use of premises – for businesses against a wide range of different example in response to COVID-19 guidance fires, while working hard to prevent fires from – should reassess fire safety requirements at starting in the first place. the same time.

Local services will have helpful advice and guidance on fire safety for businesses and homes. The links below provide the online fire safety guidance available on:

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Industrial action Consequences of industrial action may controlled operations. During this time, include: SWR were only able to operate 50% of rail What’s the risk? services, severely impacting on the ability of • disruption to essential services, passengers to travel. Previous strike action in Disruption to industry may take place through particularly transport, health and 2017, involving the train driver’s union ASLEF, a variety of means including blockades, education had seen all services cancelled across the six action by pressure groups, ‘work to rule’ • disruption to business (via lost working days of strike action. arrangements, or official strike action. hours) • possible public order challenges International industrial action can also impact A strike is where a group of workers who • economic damage (particularly for the UK, particularly in the transport sector. are part of a union legally vote via a ballot transport sector industrial action) This could include air traffic controller strikes for action, and then subsequently do not or nationwide cross-sector strikes, as seen attend work. This is done to gain better Have such events happened before? in December 2019 in France. Events such as conditions through negotiations, for example these can have an impact on cross-border for pay uplifts or improved health and safety The UK has experienced industrial action passenger and freight services at ports, as conditions. across a variety of sectors. In the 21st well as on international rail services such as century, there have been strikes in both the Eurostar and Eurotunnel. Unofficial industrial action can be used as a public and private sectors including fuel means of protest or as an attempt to prevent tanker drivers, firefighters, teachers, health What’s being done about the risk? others from attending work. There are legal service staff, London Underground workers, restrictions around how long strikes can last and government employees. Most recent Prevention and in certain critical sectors, such as policing industrial action and associated activity at and for prison officers, striking is unlawful. picket lines has been peaceful. Negotiation Wherever possible, government encourages Industrial action can lead to temporary An example of significant strike disruption negotiation and mediation, such as via the closures, reduced services and disruption is the South Western Railway (SWR) Advisory, Conciliation and Arbitration Service, to organisations, customers and the general strike in December 2019. SWR faced an as a means of resolving industrial action both public. Services might continue, but at a unprecedented 27 days of strike action from before and during a strike. reduced capacity during a strike period. the trade union RMT, in response to driver-

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Monitoring Response Additional online resources UK government and the devolved administrations work together closely to Negotiation and mediation • Industrial action and the law monitor impending strike action and resolve it This continues during the industrial action. • Taking part in industrial actions and where possible. strikes Minimum service levels • Stopping industrial action: citizen’s Legislation In the event of strike action, operators will be rights The Trade Union Act (2016) provides required to maintain minimum service levels. • If your business faces industrial action additional protections to critical services. For example, for rail, this would mean a minimum number of train services would still Contingency planning be required to operate. The Civil Contingencies Act (2004) legally obliges some organisations (such as the Substitutions emergency services) to plan for how to This process involves staff from within or maintain services in the event of a strike. outside an organisation working adjusted Other critical sectors such as fuel distribution rotas to cover for those on strike. Examples also have comprehensive plans in place. include medical consultants standing in for junior doctors, or the armed forces assisting with mitigating fuel supply distribution.

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Widespread public disorder Consequences of public disorder may include: The G20 summits in 2009 and 2017 resulted in varying degrees of violent disorder, while What’s the risk? • physical and / or psychological casualties the tuition fees protest in 2010 saw incidents • disruption to critical services, particularly of criminal damage and use of improvised Public disorder can take many forms, policing and health missiles against police. including rioting, looting, vandalism, violence • damage to property and infrastructure and arson. • evacuation or temporary shelter There have been examples of isolated requirements pockets of disorder within other events. In Disorder is unpredictable, but the majority of • economic damage some cases, social media can falsely amplify protests remain peaceful. On rare occasions, • ongoing community tension and concern the extent of these incidents. such events can escalate towards conflict. Disorder can be influenced by a variety of Have such events happened before? What’s being done about the risk? factors, such as a breakdown in community and police relations or other community In recent decades, serious widespread Pre-event tensions. disorder in the UK has been rare. On 6 August 2011, a protest in Tottenham following the Monitoring Public disorder may be caused by a shooting of Mark Duggan by the police The police have a range of mechanisms combination of long-standing grievances and escalated into widespread public disorder. in place to identify and assess known and a spontaneous response to a single incident. Over four days, disorder spread first in emerging risks that could require a public Peaceful protests are not considered a form London and then to Manchester, Salford, the order policing response. These are based of public disorder and the right to protest is West Midlands and a number of other towns within community and local policing, and enshrined in UK law. and cities across England. The disorder reported and monitored at a force, regional varied in character from area to area but and national level. included violence directed at police officers, damage to property and extensive looting.

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Understanding precipitating incidents Co-ordination Significant work has been carried out following In addition to a regional network of Public the disorder of August 2011 to improve the Order Police Professionals (which sits under government’s understanding of how public the National Police Chiefs’ Council), there disorder can begin. This allows the police to are thematic leads supported by the National identify risks, implement measures to reduce Police Co-ordination Centre. The centre is escalation and prepare in advance with plans responsible for co-ordinating the deployment of to allocate and mobilise resources. police officers and staff from across UK policing to support forces during large scale events, Response operations and in times of national crisis.

Capabilities Riot police stand guard during riots in London, England, on the 8th of August 2011. Since 2011, improvements have been made to the public order capability. Regular and frequent testing and exercising continues around mobilisation, tactics and training for police, to ensue they are able to respond. The College of Policing and National Police Chiefs Council guide these processes to assure they are consistent and of a high standard.

Community engagement This engagement is now endorsed as a critical factor in defusing tensions. It is a tactical response built into the foundational element of police command, training and response.

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Useful information and advice Additional online resources

The police are well equipped to deal with • The Rules of Engagement – a report large-scale public disorder and regularly following the disorder of August 2011 test and exercise their ability to do so. Such • Policing Large-Scale Disorder: Lessons incidents are fortunately very rare. from the disturbances of August 2011 • The government’s response to the If such an incident does occur, individuals ‘Policing Large-Scale Disorder’ report should stay indoors until it is safe to go out. Anybody who is outside should avoid hotspots or areas where police action is in progress.

Businesses should activate their relevant emergency plans when it is appropriate to the circumstances.

Individuals or businesses with security systems that record what is happening – or any other evidence of public disorder or criminal offences – should keep these for use by the police at a later date.

It can be useful to keep abreast of current national and local news and radio. Violent or destructive behaviour should be reported to the emergency services. In an emergency, always call 999.

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Serious and Organised Crime The government is committed to ensuring that the National Crime Agency and police Introduction have the funding and tools they need to bring criminals to justice and to protect victims. Serious and organised crime (SOC) consists of crimes that cause the highest harm to the More information on the threat from SOC and people of the UK, such as drug trafficking, on the UK’s response can be found on the fraud and child sexual abuse. The threat below websites: is complex, evolving, and often hidden. It ruins the lives of victims and destroys • GOV.UK: Serious and Organised Crime communities as organised criminal groups Strategy exploit the most vulnerable for their own gain • National Strategic Assessment of – from defrauding people of their savings to Serious and Organised Crime 2020 trafficking vulnerable people. • Scotland’s Serious Organised Crime Strategy Their crimes are often connected. For • Department of Justice (Northern example, there is a direct link between Ireland): Organised crime people buying drugs on UK streets, the violence of gangs competing to sell them and corrupt accountants laundering dirty money. SOC has a daily impact on our public services, institutions, national reputation and infrastructure, and costs the UK at least £37 billion every year.

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Organised immigration crime and People smuggling is of particular concern, as Did you know? modern slavery the number of detected entry attempts are increasing. Detections at the border control ‘County lines’ is a term used to describe What’s the risk? points in France and Belgium have increased gangs and organised criminal networks by 10% since last year and detections at who export illegal drugs into one The UK is an attractive destination for UK ports have grown by 14% in the same or more areas within the UK, using migrants and other people escaping conflict period. The threat from small boats crossing dedicated mobile phone lines or other and poverty. Organised crime groups exploit the Channel has grown over 2019 and 2020. forms of ‘deal line’. They are likely to migrants for profit by engaging in people Significant increases in this method of entry exploit children and vulnerable adults smuggling and human trafficking, which have been seen during COVID-19 travel to move and store the drugs and can lead to individuals being forced into restrictions, as other illegal routes became money and they will often use coercion, conditions of modern slavery. These victims unviable. intimidation, violence (including sexual are often vulnerable, making it easier for violence) and weapons. offenders to coerce them into criminality in The consequences of OIC might include: the UK, where they can be forced to work in county lines drugs supply, in cannabis • injury or fatality to individuals, including cultivation or low-level, high-frequency minors, who attempt hazardous crossings acquisitive crimes, such as shoplifting. to arrive in the UK • exploitation of individuals, including The threat to the UK from organised minors, into conditions of modern slavery immigration crime (OIC) is increasing across all threat types, including:

• covert people smuggling • facilitation by air, production and supply of fraudulent documentation • abuse of legitimate means to enter or remain in the UK County lines are likely to exploit children and vulnerable adults.

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Modern slavery comprises slavery, servitude, Exploitation in county lines drugs supply Have such events happened before? forced and compulsory labour, and human remains the most frequently identified trafficking. Individuals may be exploited in a form of coerced criminality, and children The impact of OIC was highlighted by the number of ways, including through criminal, represent the majority of victims of this tragic deaths of 39 Vietnamese nationals, labour and sexual exploitation. Victims type of exploitation. Adult victims may be including minors, in a refrigerated lorry found of modern slavery are often vulnerable forced to work in cannabis cultivation, or in Essex on 23 October 2019. in multiple ways, such as through social low-level, high-frequency acquisitive crimes and economic disadvantage. They may such as shoplifting. Labour exploitation is In addition, Operation Fort was the largest be reluctant to come forward or may not often reported across various sectors such case to be prosecuted under the Modern recognise themselves as victims. Some as construction, agriculture and car wash Slavery Act 2015. It was also one of the victims may have been trafficked into the services. Sexual exploitation accounts for the largest labour exploitation cases ever to UK illegally, although many victims are UK highest number of female victims identified have been prosecuted in Europe. The case nationals or have been trafficked within the UK. in the UK. involved over 80 victims, with over 400 others identified as potential victims. The victims Modern slavery is a hidden crime which were all vulnerable Polish nationals who were makes it challenging to accurately assess its offered work in the UK, mostly in agriculture prevalence. In 2019, 10,627 potential victims or recycling. The victims were housed in were referred into the National Referral poor accommodation, given very little food, Mechanism (NRM), the UK’s system for mistreated and threatened with violence if identifying and supporting victims of modern they tried to escape. slavery. This was a 52% increase on 2018.

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What’s being done about the risk? Victim support Government is committed to ensuring Collaboration that victims get the support they need to Responsibility for tackling OIC, modern begin rebuilding their lives, and that those slavery and human trafficking is a shared responsible are prosecuted. More victims endeavour across law enforcement and than ever before are being identified in the government, including the National Crime UK. In 2019, 10,627 potential victims were Agency (NCA), Immigration Enforcement, referred into the NRM, a 52% increase on Border Force and the police. 2018. A new Single Competent Authority was launched on 29 April 2019 to handle all Stronger measures NRM cases and provide high-quality, timely The UK government has invested in measures decisions for victims. The UK government at home and overseas to tackle illegal provides specialist support and advocacy migration, for example by strengthening ports services for victims of modern slavery. and border security. The UK also works with other countries (particularly geographically Police operation close countries including France, Belgium The number of live police operations to and the Netherlands) to ensure a joint investigate modern slavery has increased approach in the fight organised crime groups. since the Modern Slavery Act (2015) became law, from 188 police operations in December 2016 to at least 2,044 in July 2020. In the year to March 2020, police in England and Wales recorded 7,779 modern slavery offences, a 59% increase on the previous year.

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Useful information and advice • contacting Crimestoppers on 0800 555 Anyone with suspicions around modern 111 or via www.crimestoppers-uk.org slavery can: The public may hold information of value to law enforcement. Significant investigations There can be indicators that someone is a • dial 999 if they or someone else is in into OIC offences have benefited from victim of modern slavery. A person may: immediate danger information from members of the public. • call the police on 101 if there is no • believe that they must work against their will immediate risk of harm A range of signs of OIC may be visible, • be unable to leave their work environment • call the independent Modern Slavery including: or home environment Helpline for specialist advice on 08000 • show signs that their movements are 121 700 • activity at isolated coastal locations or at being controlled • call the Gangmasters and Labour Abuse unusual times of day, including attempts • feel that they cannot leave Authority on 0800 432 0804 if labour to guide vessels offshore to unusual • show fear or anxiety exploitation is suspected landfall, and crew showing signs of • be subjected to violence or threats of • contact Crimestoppers anonymously on nervousness violence against themselves or against 080 0 555 111 • strange patterns of payment being made, their family members and loved ones such as the receipt of frequent cash • allow others to speak for them when payments from multiple sources through addressed directly bank accounts. • not be in possession of their passports or other travel or identity documents, Additional online resources In an emergency, call the police on 999. as those documents are being held by someone else • Coronavirus (COVID-19): support for OIC can be reported anonymously by: victims of modern slavery Full details on identifying potential victims of • Report suspicious behaviour at sea • visiting www.gov.uk/reportimmigration- modern slavery and indicators are available in • Office of the Independent Anti-Slavery crime the recently published Home Office modern Commissioner • calling the Immigration Enforcement slavery statutory guidance. hotline on 0300 123 7000

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Firearms There is understood to be a continuous and The vast majority of registered firearms resilient supply of firearms into the criminal dealers (RFD) are law abiding. However, there What’s the risk? marketplace, as most firearms identified as are risks from theft of RFD stock as well as part of a crime have only been used once criminal complicity or exploitation given RFD’s The number of offences involving firearms in and the majority of firearms recovered by access to, skills and knowledge of firearms the UK remains among the lowest in the world police have never been discharged. Illegal and ammunition. In cases involving an RFD, and offences involving firearms account for firearms are used in violence and as a threat the scale of supply can be significant. There is less than 1% of all reported crime. However, to support criminal activity. While the use of also a continued risk from the reactivation or the high-harm nature of gun crime continues firearms in a UK-based extremist or terrorist conversion of antique and blank firers, which to create a serious risk to public safety and attack remains a realistic possibility and the might be more easily accessible to criminals the risk of homicide. intent to conduct a firearms attack does exist, than lethal purpose firearms. access to firearms and ammunition remains a The ONS figures show that 9,787 firearms major barrier in the UK. Consequences of the use of illicit firearms offences occurred in the year 2018–19. may include: Although firearms offences have followed a Police regularly recover illegal firearms general downward trend since 2004, when through operations focused on organised • casualties and fatalities there were 24,094 offences recorded, the crime, including drugs and firearms • damage to property 2018–19 figure represents a 25% increase trafficking, gang-related activity and other • disruption to services such as transport from the historic low recorded in 2014–15 crime such as robbery. Border Force • economic disruption, such as affecting (7,729 offences). In 2018–19, the National continues to seize firearms, ammunition and tourism Ballistics Intelligence Service recorded the component parts, particularly in parcels, post • potential coercion and intimidation of highest rate of illegal firearms discharges and as freight is moved on and off ships. This communities in the 10 years covered by reporting indicates that illicit importation remains a key (2009–2019). This represented a roughly 5% supply route for UK-based criminals. increase from the previous year.

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Have such events happened before? further their criminal enterprises. In a recent major operation to tackle organised crime, In the worst international instances, firearms police and the NCA recovered 77 firearms, have been used by terrorists to inflict multiple including an AK-47 assault rifle, sub-machine casualties. There continue to be incidences of guns, handguns, grenades and over 1,800 attacks around the world by terrorist groups rounds of ammunition. Firearms offences also and individual extremists, including those with remain concentrated in urban areas, with over extreme right-wing views. Examples of recent half of offences recorded in five Metropolitan attacks include: Police areas.

• Hanau (Germany) in 2020 Operational activity and law enforcement • Christchurch (New Zealand), Halle investigations have uncovered supply routes (Germany) and Bærum (Norway) in 2019 to the criminal marketplace from both illicit • Macerata (Italy) in 2018 importation and the lawful market. This • Grand Bassam (Ivory Coast) in 2016 activity has revealed that illicit firearm supply • Sousse (Tunisia) and Paris (France) in 2015 routes often overlap with drug supply routes Police regularly recover illegal firearms through from Europe. Trafficked firearms continue to operations focused on organised crime. This is in addition to incidents of mass be recovered by Border Force on a regular shootings in the USA. It is likely that if terrorists basis, and there has been an increase in in the UK were able to access firearms, some seizures of firearms, firearm component parts might seek to carry out similar attacks. and ammunition being smuggled into the UK.

In the UK, there is a strong connection In 2019, 472 lethal firearms were seized at the between the criminal use of firearms and border. This figure includes the largest ever the illicit supply of drugs by organised crime seizure of firearms at the UK border, hidden in a groups. Victims of gun crime are generally car. In addition, law enforcement has disrupted known to the police, emphasising that a small number of corrupt RFDs over the criminals use firearms in feuds with other past five years, each of whom was involved in criminals for punishment or to protect or supplying firearms to the criminal market.

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Data on incidents where an illegal gun has operation against illegal firearms in late and law enforcement partners have worked been fired indicates that a large proportion 2016, led by the NCA and National Counter with European partners to standardise and of firearm discharges come from converted, Terrorism Policing Headquarters. It also led tighten firearms legislation. Departments modified and reactivated firearms. This to the establishment of the National Firearms and partners are also developing source means that criminals exploit more easily Threat Centre in 2017, which provides a countries’ capability and capacity to available original non-lethal purpose or permanent multi-agency response to the combat the threat from international firearm deactivated firearms and seek to convert and threat from illegal firearms at the local, trafficking. Since November 2018, over 400 reactivate them. regional, national and international levels. illegal blank-firing firearms have been seized across the UK as part of an NCA-led national What’s being done about the risk? Intelligence and detection operation, targeting UK customers involved The NCA, National Ballistics Intelligence in purchasing firearms online from companies Disrupting availability Service and the Home Office continue to work based across Europe. Suppressing the availability of illegal firearms closely with partners internationally and in in the UK is a law enforcement priority. It is the UK to disrupt the supply of illegal firearms Legislation anticipated that the use of illegal firearms and through intelligence-led operations. Improving The Offensive Weapons Act (2019) banned ammunition in the UK will continue to steadily detection at the border and rectifying certain rapid-firing rifles and modification increase without continued efforts towards vulnerabilities also remains an ongoing priority. component parts under section 5 of the disruption. Once firearms or ammunition enter Firearms Act (1968). They prohibit the the criminal marketplace, they are accessible Managing international risks manufacture, sale, transfer or acquisition of to both OCGs and terrorists. Firearms policies and regulations vary both such weapons and parts for modifications. within the UK (such as between Northern New regulations have been laid to provide Co-operation Ireland and the rest of the UK) and across a statutory definition of ‘antique firearm’ The 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris prompted a Europe. This challenge requires continued which will address the criminal misuse of programme of work between the Home Office engagement between governments and antique firearms by providing legal certainty and law enforcement to better understand law enforcement agencies. As a result of on which firearms can safely be possessed how criminals were most likely to access these differences, some firearms which are as an antique without the need for a firearm firearms and what action should be taken illegal in the UK are accessible and being certificate. by law enforcement bodies to disrupt illicit imported from Europe. To weaken European supply. This work resulted in a multi-agency sources of supply, government departments

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Useful information and advice Additional online resources

To stop firearms getting into the wrong hands, • National Crime Agency – illegal firearms UK law enforcement depends on intelligence • National Ballistics Intelligence Service about firearms access, supply and use. The public may possess valuable information that can help law enforcement.

Anyone who has information about illegally held firearms or ammunition should contact the police. Reports can be made anonymously by calling Crimestoppers on 0800 555 111 or visiting www.crimestoppers-uk.org

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Drugs 2020, the independent Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs reported that fentanyl- What’s the risk? analogues (synthetic opioids with a potency much stronger than that of morphine) present Around three million people took illegal a significant ongoing risk to UK public health. drugs in England and Wales last year, with around 300,000 in England taking the most Consequences of these events may include: harmful drugs – opiates and crack cocaine. Drug deaths have reached record levels and • violence linked to the drugs trade drugs markets have become more violent increases with impact on public safety and exploitative, particularly along county • deaths caused by drug use increases lines. Dame Carol Black’s Review of Drugs, • strain on public resources such as the published in February 2020, considered NHS and police the health harms, costs of crime and wider impacts on society, and estimated the total Have such events happened before? cost of drugs to society in England as over Drugs are known to be a driver of serious and organised £19 billion. It is estimated that 86% of these In the UK, 44% of homicides in 2017–18 were crime within the UK. costs are concentrated in the markets for known to be drug-related. In 21% of violent heroin and crack cocaine. incidents recorded in 2017–18, the offender was under the influence of drugs. Drugs are known to be a driver of crime and serious violence within the UK. The review Drug deaths in 2018 were the highest on found that the potential future saturation of record, and were at similar levels in 2019. county lines markets worsens the threat of Since 2012, heroin-related deaths have more violence, which could impact wider society. than doubled, while deaths involving cocaine have increased five-fold. Drug markets are also diversifying, with more synthetic drugs and new psychoactive In the USA, roughly 28,400 people died from substances entering the market. In January overdoses involving synthetic opioids other

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than methadone in 2017 – a 47% increase on Investment Victim support 2016 figures. Government is investing £25 million to tackle The government is committed to protecting county lines by improving law enforcement’s the most vulnerable and helping those with The NCA has been monitoring deaths from response. There is also increased investment a drug dependency to recover and turn their fentanyl analogues in the UK since December for specialist support for victims of county lives around. Work is being undertaken to 2016. As of January 2020, there had been 167 lines exploitation. help people with drug dependencies to seek identified deaths in the UK where a fentanyl help via the substance misuse treatment analogue had been noted in toxicology Enforcement system and to be supported to recover. reports, either as a single substance or part Law enforcement is taking a smarter approach of multi-drug toxicities. Following a spike to restricting drug supply, by adapting to reflect in 2017, fentanyl-related deaths in the UK changes in criminal activity, using innovative appeared to slow in 2018, with 15 recorded. data and technology, and working with partners This downward trend continued into 2019. to tackle drugs alongside other criminal activity. To enhance this activity, the government is What’s being done about the risk? providing funding to support delivery of ‘heroin and crack action areas’. These areas are Disrupting supply providing the police and local partners with the A total of 9.6 tonnes of cocaine were seized space to consider their response to a variety in England and Wales in 2018–19, an increase of public health issues, particularly around of 6.31 tonnes. This is the largest quantity problematic heroin and crack use and the of cocaine seized since recording began in increase in drug-related deaths. 1973. The total quantity of heroin seized in 2018–19 was 0.75 tonnes – a 53% increase Education on 2017–18, when 0.49 tonnes were seized. The government takes a balanced approach UK law enforcement and international to tackling drugs and addressing the harms partners have had considerable success they cause. Work is being undertaken across disrupting supply and seizing drugs before government on prevention, for example in they reach the UK. schools.

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Useful information and advice If an individual suspects someone is involved If a child is missing from home, or there in drug-related crime, they can anonymously are concerns about them being involved Children and young people involved with contact: in gangs, drugs dealing or county lines gangs and criminal exploitation need help and exploitation, contact the Missing People support. They might be involved in violence, • the police, by calling 101 SafeCall service. SafeCall provides be pressured into doing things like stealing, • Crimestoppers, by calling 0800 555 111 confidential and one-to-one support to carrying drugs or weapons, or be abused, or visiting www.crimestoppers-uk.org children, but they also offer advice and exploited and put into dangerous situations. guidance to parents and carers who are Other sources of advice and help are concerned and need support. Their free, A young person involved in county lines activity available. confidential hotline operates 24 / 7 and can may exhibit some of the following signs: be reached by calling or texting 116 000 or The NSPCC can offer support. They can be by emailing [email protected] • persistently going missing from school or contacted by phoning 0808 800 500 or by home or being found out-of-area emailing [email protected] • unexplained acquisition of money, clothes or a mobile phone The Children’s Society provides resources • excessive receipt of texts or calls, for parents who are concerned their child Additional online resources possibly on multiple devices may be being criminally exploited or involved in county lines. • Independent Review of Drugs by Signs of county lines activity may include the Professor Dame Carol Black home addresses of vulnerable individuals being Parent Info provides information for parents • Misuse of fentanyl and fentanyl taken over, or ‘cuckooed’, by unknown people. around knife crime and gang involvement. analogues • Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs • Talk to Frank for facts, support and advice on drugs

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Bribery and corruption Consequences of these events may include: In 2017, a multi-agency investigation involving the NCA, the Metropolitan Police and French What’s the risk? • the enabling of a wide range of SOC, police arrested a corrupt UK border officer such as the trafficking of drugs, firearms attempting to smuggle drugs and firearms Corruption is a critical enabler of Serious and people into the UK. Eight pistols, two revolvers, Organised Crime (SOC), threatening our • UK institutions and individuals being ammunition and quantities of cocaine and national security and prosperity at home exploited, manipulated and undermined heroin worth a combined £3.4 million were and overseas. In the UK, there is a particular for criminal gain seized. risk to the law enforcement, prison, and • criminal investigations and prosecutions border and immigration sectors which can being compromised What is being done about the risk? undermine the rule of law. Overseas, bribery • distortion of markets and fair competition and corruption are a cause of conflict and Prevention instability which, if not tackled, can increase Have such events happened before? UK government and law enforcement are risks to the UK. committed to strengthening safeguards and In 2019, a multi-agency investigation into a protecting against corruption to address the Corruption and illicit finance fuel wider corrupt agency worker at the Port of Tilbury threat from both corrupt officials and those crimes, such as drugs and terrorism, that resulted in a sentence of 14 years and five using corruption to further their criminal aims threaten the safety and security of citizens. months following a guilty plea for assisting or to gain a business advantage. Therefore, tackling corruption and ensuring offenders to import or supply cocaine. The the integrity of the public and private sectors, investigation found that a number of drug Strategy procurement and institutions is a government importations went through the port between The government’s approach to tackling priority. This work may include identifying and January and July 2015. The agency worker corruption is set out in the Anti-Corruption prosecuting corrupt officials in key sectors acted as a go-between to inform a ‘collection Strategy 2017-2022. The strategy will be (borders, prisons and police), procurement team’ when a container which he knew held guided by four approaches: protect against and local government. Promoting integrity consignments of cocaine had arrived at the corruption, prevent people engaging in this way will build trust and longer-term port. Four consignments were intercepted, in corruption, pursue those involved in prosperity. leading to the recovery of more than three- corruption, and reduce the impact of quarters of a tonne of cocaine with an corruption. There are six key priority areas: estimated street value of £114 million.

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• reduce the threat from corrupt insiders in Useful information and advice high-risk domestic sectors • strengthen the integrity of the UK as an Businesses and companies which operate international financial centre in the UK need to consider the risks of • promote integrity across the public and bribery and the measures needed to prevent private sectors wrongdoing. A good starting point is the • reduce corruption in public procurement Ministry of Justice Bribery Act Guidance and grants which sets out six principles for the prevention • improve the business environment of bribery: proportionate procedures, top-level globally commitment, risk assessment, due diligence, • work with other countries to combat communication (including training), and corruption monitoring and review. Allegations of bribery and corruption should be reported.

Allegations of bribery and corruption involving UK companies, or foreign companies and individuals with a connection to the UK, should be reported to the International Corruption Unit: [email protected]

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Child sexual abuse which can lead to guilt, self-blame and blame What’s being done about the risk? from others. Estimates indicate that only one What’s the risk? in eight children who are sexually abused are Investment identified by professionals. The Crime Survey The UK government has invested significantly An estimated 7.5% of adults in England and for England and Wales estimates that less in work to tackle child sexual abuse and Wales say they experienced sexual abuse as than one-quarter of adults (aged between 18 the UK is a global leader in this area. The a child, equating to 3.1 million people. Victims and 74) have reported abuse they suffered as independent Economist Intelligence Unit’s most commonly report that the perpetrator a child to the police. Out of the Shadows index on child sexual was a friend or acquaintance (of themselves abuse and exploitation, published in May or their family) or a family member (including There is a risk that technological trends, 2019, gave the UK’s response to this step-parent), at 37% and 35.3% respectively. including more widespread use of the internet crime the highest score of all 60 countries The independent body Internet Watch and advances such as end-to-end encryption, assessed. Foundation reports that 94% of child sexual will amplify the scale, level and complexity abuse (CSA) material found online contains of harm to children. Given what we do know Strategy and responsiveness images of children aged 13 or under, and 46% about underreporting, there is a risk that the UK government needs to keep up with this contains images of children aged 10 or under. scale of unreported abuse is greater than even fast-evolving threat, and has committed to the official estimates suggest. publishing a national strategy on tackling all The impact on victims’ lives can be devastating. forms of child sexual abuse. Government Being a victim or survivor of CSA is associated Have such events happened before? has also set up the Independent Inquiry into with an increased risk of adverse outcomes Child Sexual Abuse to consider the extent including physical and emotional health and Over the last decade, a series of revelations to which institutions have failed to protect socio-economic difficulty. have brought about step changes in public children from sexual abuse and exploitation. understanding of the scale and nature of child The government is considering carefully Victims often feel unable to report their sexual abuse. These include the reporting of: the inquiry’s findings and responding to its experiences and adults are not always able to recommendations as they emerge. recognise that abuse is taking place. For this • the prevalence of offending in institutions reason, data sources do not represent the full • offending by people in positions of trust scale of the issue. Children and young people • on-street grooming may feel responsible for preventing abuse, • internet grooming

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Useful information and advice Signs that someone might be experiencing Additional online resources online sexual abuse include: Individuals who are worried that a child or • Internet Watch Foundation young person is at risk of, or is being, abused, • spending a lot more or a lot less time than • NSPCC – Child Sexual Abuse should contact the children’s social care team usual online, texting, gaming or using • Child Exploitation and Online at their local council. It isn’t necessary to be social media Protection Safety Centre entirely sure that a child or young person has • seeming distant, upset or angry after • WePROTECT Global Alliance been abused: it’s OK to report a suspicion. using the internet or texting • Interim Report of the Independent This can also be done anonymously. • being secretive about who they’re talking Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse to and what they’re doing online or on • Children’s Commissioner – Protecting Signs that someone might be experiencing their mobile phone Children From Harm sexual abuse include: • having lots of new phone numbers, texts or email addresses on their device • avoiding being alone with, or frightened of, people or a person they know When it is suspected or identified, child • language or sexual behaviour they might sexual abuse should always be reported to not be expected to know yet the police. If it’s not an emergency, it can • having nightmares or bed-wetting be reported online via CEOP.police.uk or • alcohol or drug misuse by calling 101. Always call 999 a child is at • self-harm immediate risk. • changes in eating habits or developing an eating problem • changes in their mood, feeling irritable and angry, or anything out of the ordinary • physical signs: bruises, bleeding or soreness in the genital area, sexually transmitted infections or pregnancy

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Introduction On Tuesday 3 November 2020, the Joint The UK faces a growing and evolving Terrorism Analysis Centre increased threat from HSA, further enabled by rapid The threat to the UK the UK national terrorism threat level developments in technology that have from ’substantial’ to ‘severe’ (having been provided new ways for adversaries to The nature of terrorism is changing. It is ‘substantial since November 2019). This undermine, threaten, or steal information becoming more diverse, more complex and means an attack is highly likely. The level alongside an increased risk appetite from some increasingly dispersed and volatile – both of threat to Northern Ireland from Northern to target UK interests and that of our allies. domestically and overseas. The UK is still Ireland-related terrorism remains ‘severe’, confronted by enduring threats from Islamist which means an attack is highly likely. For HSA manifests itself in many forms. These terrorism and Northern Ireland dissidents, further information on threat levels, including can be acute and aggressive, such as as well as emerging right-wing, left-wing, an explanation of what they mean and to assassination attempts and attempted anarchist and single-issue terrorist threats. track any further updates, please see the interference in our elections and democratic MI5 website. institutions. These can also take the form These individuals are moving more quickly of chronic activity, such as espionage and from planning to conducting an attack. Malicious threats to the UK do not just stem sabotage, that aims to erode our commercial, Attackers are increasingly acting alone and from terrorism. They also take the form of technological and economic advantage. using low-sophistication methods such as hostile state activity (HSA). HSA includes bladed weapons or vehicles. The threat overt or covert action by adversaries The UK government takes these threats very of experienced fighters and radicalised that seeks to undermine or threaten the seriously and is working to counter them in individuals returning to the UK remains, UK’s national security, the integrity of its all their forms. In doing so it is drawing on a while online radicalisation of impressionable democracy, the functioning of the state, whole-of-government and whole-of-society individuals continues to be a serious problem. public safety, reputation, or economic approach, as well as continued developments prosperity, short of armed conflict. in science and technology, including cyber. Counter-HSA legislation has also been updated to ensure that security, intelligence and law enforcement agencies have the powers they need to tackle these issues.

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Who are the potential attackers? While the threat from Islamist terrorism What’s being done about the risk? remains the most significant, the threat from Within the remit of this section, the term right-wing terrorism has evolved in recent Strategy ‘terrorist’ refers to any individual or group years and is growing. Since 2015, three The UK government’s Counter-Terrorism seeking to use violence as a means of terrorist attacks in the UK were carried out Strategy (CONTEST) is widely respected. inflicting terror for political reasons. This by lone actors motivated to varying degrees It aims to reduce the risk to the UK and its includes a wide variety of individuals by right-wing extremist ideologies, including citizens and interests overseas from terrorism and groups of varying ideologies and the murder of Jo Cox MP in June 2016. so that people can go about their lives freely backgrounds. Devastating attacks by right-wing terrorists and with confidence. It ensures that we have around the world, including in New Zealand, the best possible response to the current and Islamist extremists continue to pose the most Belgium and the USA, have demonstrated future threat from terrorism. It is based around significant terrorist threat to the UK and to UK that this is a threat not faced by the UK alone. four work strands: interests and nationals abroad. Numerous Islamist extremist groups want to conduct Northern Ireland-related terrorism is still • Prevent: to stop people becoming terrorist attacks against western countries a notable threat, with violent dissident terrorists or supporting terrorism in the including the UK. Such groups include Daesh republican groups intent on perpetrating first place (also known as the so-called ‘Islamic State’, attacks against the Police Service of Northern • Pursue: to stop terrorist attacks ISIL or ISIS) in Iraq and Syria, al Qa’ida Ireland and prison officers. These attacks can • Protect: to strengthen our protection (centered in Afghanistan and Pakistan), see additional tragic collateral repercussions against a terrorist attack Al Shabaab (in Somalia), and Boko Haram (in beyond the intended targets, as in the case • Prepare: to mitigate the impact of a Nigeria). Al Qa’ida and Daesh-affiliated groups of the murder of journalist Lyra McKee in terrorist attack when they cannot be can be found in the Middle East, South Asia, Londonderry in 2019. stopped North and West Africa, South-East Asia and East Africa.

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Legislation Independent reviews The Counter Terrorism and Border Security Reviews such as the Operational Act received Royal Assent in February 2019. Improvement Review (conducted by David This new legislation will ensure that the Anderson in the wake of the 2017 attacks) police, security services, prosecutors and and the upcoming Prevent review (expected, the judiciary have the powers they need to at the time of writing, to be completed by tackle the evolving threat posed to the UK by August 2021), will continue to improve the terrorism. approach to keeping the public safe.

Collaboration Following pilots in London, the West Midlands and the North West, there now exists a central multi-agency centre to co-ordinate and deliver appropriate and effective risk management plans for cases across the United Kingdom. The government is also working with the private sector to develop a new information sharing platform. This collaboration between business, industry and the public sector will make the country safer and enable businesses to thrive and stay secure.

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Attacks on publicly accessible • fatalities and physical and / or • On 3 June 2017, three terrorists used a locations psychological casualties vehicle and knives to kill eight people in a • significant damage to property and marauding attack in London. What’s the risk? infrastructure • On 19 June 2017, a terrorist drove a van • increased demands on emergency into pedestrians outside a mosque in There has been an increase in the frequency services London, killing one person. of terrorist attacks in the UK from 2017. • disruption to essential services, • On 15 September 2017, a terrorist left an Nearly all of these have occurred in publicly particularly transport, health and education improvised explosive device on a London accessible locations that people visit, • economic damage, particularly via tube carriage during the morning rush congregate in, or transit through. disruption to business and damage to hour with the intent of causing significant international reputation harm. This partially exploded while the Publicly accessible locations include a • evacuation and shelter of neighbouring tube train was at Parsons Green station. wide variety of everyday locations such as residents or employees There were no fatalities, although a sports stadiums, festivals, music venues, number of passengers were injured. hotels, pubs, clubs, bars, high streets, Have such events happened before? • On 31 December 2018, a terrorist retail stores, shopping centres, markets, attempted to murder three people by places of worship, transport hubs, parks Publicly accessible locations have been stabbing in a knife attack at Manchester and other open spaces. This list is by no targeted by terrorists in the UK and across Victoria Station. means exhaustive, but it does demonstrate the world for many years. • On 16 March 2019, a terrorist attempted the diverse nature of publicly accessible to murder one person by stabbing in a locations. The list below details examples of attacks supermarket car park in Stanwell, Surrey. in the UK. • On 29 November 2019, a terrorist killed A defining feature of such attacks is the two people by stabbing near London targeting of people. This may be random or • On 22 March 2017, a terrorist used a Bridge. be aimed at specific groups, for example vehicle and knife to conduct an attack in • On 2 February 2020, a terrorist used a relating to race or religious beliefs. Westminster, London, killing five. knife to conduct an attack in Streatham, • On 22 May 2017, a terrorist detonated a London. Impact of an attack on a publicly accessible suicide explosive device outside a concert location may include: venue in Manchester, killing 22.

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It should also be noted that numerous Advice and guidance for stakeholders Public awareness and digital tools plots, acts of preparation and conspiracies Counter Terrorism Security Advisers (CTSAs) to commit acts of terrorism in publicly engage with stakeholders and provide Campaigns accessible locations in the UK have been advice to site owners and operators, local Regular public communications campaigns thwarted. Suspects have been successfully authorities and others. Alongside Counter provide advice to the public on the steps they apprehended and convicted. However, the Terrorism Awareness Advisers, they also can take to keep themselves safe in the rare terrorist threat remains complex and diverse, deliver awareness sessions and training event of a firearms or weapons attack, such and changes rapidly. courses to publicly accessible location as the ‘Stay Safe’ film. managers, front of house and other staff. In Recent investigations have led, this year, to addition, they engage with representatives of Online learning and resources the conviction of several terrorist suspects leading publicly accessible location sectors In 2018, the police launched an Action who sought to carry out attacks at notable (such as sports grounds, shopping centres, Counters Terrorism e-learning course. iconic locations and events such as St Paul’s entertainment centres), member associations, Overall, half a million participants have signed Cathedral and the annual London Pride Parade. and organisations who own or are responsible up. In March 2020, the Action Counters for publicly accessible locations. Advice is Terrorism application was launched. It What’s being done about the risk? also provided to local authorities, planners, provides practical advice and guidance developers and architects by CTSAs, on how to protect businesses and how to Protective security and preparedness the Centre for the Protection of National respond in the event of an attack. As of June Infrastructure, and the Ministry of Housing, 2020, more than 10,000 security specialists Protect duty Communities and Local Government. This is and workers in publicly accessible locations Government intends to launch a consultation delivered through the National Planning Policy have subscribed to the app. The introduction on the introduction of a ‘protect duty’, which Framework and associated guidance, which of marauding terrorist attacks guidance also will likely require a range of owners and is designed to ensure that proportionate advises businesses on how to prepare for operators to consider the risk of, and their security measures are considered for a marauding attack and what to do if one preparedness for, a terrorist attack and take appropriate new builds and refurbishments. should occur. proportionate and reasonable measures. Online advice and guidance are regularly reviewed and updated. Counter terrorism police also provide targeted communications to stakeholders.

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Reducing terrorists’ ability Emergency service response to terrorist attacks Explosive material limitations Government continues to apply measures to Preparedness make it more difficult for terrorists to source The emergency services are trained and the chemicals and components needed to equipped to respond to terrorist attacks manufacture homemade explosives and across the UK in order to save lives, mitigate improvised explosive devices. threats and bring offenders to justice.

Transport Enhanced capability

The Department for Transport has There has been significant uplift in the UK’s A significant uplift in the UK’s armed policing capability implemented bespoke security measures armed policing capability and capacity. This and capacity will enable us to respond more quickly and effectively to terrorist attacks, including firearms threats. across the rail, road, maritime and aviation will enable us to respond more quickly and networks to prevent potential attacks. effectively to terrorist attacks, including These have ranged from effective passenger firearms threats. In addition to armed policing, screening within aviation and specialist the UK has specialist fire and ambulance security programmes across the rail network, teams trained and equipped to manage to the creation of the Rental Vehicle Security casualties in higher-risk environments. This Scheme. multi-agency capability can be deployed from key locations across the country to attend an Stringent border security incident occurring anywhere in the UK. Driven by strict processes and intelligence, the government and its border control officers seek Collaborative working to make it more difficult to smuggle weapons or The Joint Emergency Services Interoperability dangerous substances into the UK. Principles have improved the way the UK’s emergency services work together. They are regularly reviewed and are fully applicable to the evolving nature of terrorism.

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Useful information and advice Additional online resources

The National Counter Terrorism Security • Marauding terrorist attacks guidance Office and partners have published powerful • Centre for the Protection of National and comprehensive advice for the UK Infrastructure public. Messages have been broadcast • Action Counters Terrorism e-learning across a range of media, providing course straightforward guidance to help the public take safe and effective action in response to a marauding terrorist attack or in response to suspicious circumstances.

The UK government’s Stay Safe film provides more information on how to stay safe in the rare event of a firearms or weapons attack,

Suspicious activity can be reported in confidence online or by calling the police on 0800 789 321.

In an emergency always dial 999.

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Attacks on transport systems • disruption and negative impact on local, of 11 July 2006 saw seven explosions kill regional and national economy 209 people and injure over 300 people. What’s the risk? • disruption to tourism There was a failed gun attack on a high- • disruption or interruption of imports speed train to Paris in August 2015. On Transport systems include (but are not limited (particularly in the case of maritime 22 March 2016, three co-ordinated suicide to) railways, buses, passenger vessels, cargo incidents) bombings occurred in Belgium: two at vessels and aircraft. Physical attacks against • possible evacuation and shelter of Brussels Airport in Zaventem, and one at such systems could take a variety of forms, residents or employees Maalbeek metro station in central Brussels. including explosives, firearms, noxious or This attack resulted in 32 fatalities and over corrosive substances, or attackers wielding Have such events happened before? 300 casualties. blades. Land transport Aviation In the UK, conventional terrorist attacks on land and air-based transport are more likely Attacks during peak travel periods can Aviation continues to be an attractive target than against maritime transport. Risks to potentially have a devastating impact due for terrorist attacks. There have been several maritime transport do still exist, although to the high volume and concentration of instances on attacks against aircrafts and these risks to British interests and citizens passengers. On 7 July 2005, London’s related infrastructure such as: are higher overseas. The likelihood of any of transport system was attacked with four these things happening is still very low. explosions (three on underground trains, • the 1988 bombing of a Pan Am flight over one on a bus), resulting in 52 fatalities and Lockerbie, Scotland, resulting in 270 Consequences of an attack on a transport over 750 casualties. Subsequent attacks fatalities system may include: were attempted (unsuccessfully) two weeks • the crashing of hijacked planes into later. On 15 September 2017, 30 people were the World Trade Center, the Pentagon • fatalities and physical and / or treated for burn injuries following an explosion and Pennsylvania, United States, in psychological casualties on a London Underground at Parsons Green September 2001, resulting in 2,977 • damage to property and infrastructure station. fatalities and over 6,000 casualties • disruption to essential services, • the destruction of a Metrojet flight from particularly transport Land transport attacks have also occurred Egypt in 2015, killing all those on board overseas. The Mumbai train bombings

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• an explosion on a Daallo Airlines flight • a Superferry14 bombing in the Philippines London Underground, Docklands Light shortly after taking off from Mogadishu in 2004 Railway and Glasgow Subway are all in 2016, killing one (the attacker) and • an attack on the oil tanker M. Star in 2010 regulated and monitored by the Department injuring two • recent attacks on shipping near Yemen for Transport (DfT). DfT requires these and in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait organisations to deliver a range of security Unsuccessful attacks include: measures, and also provides a range of best A similar attack cannot be ruled out in the UK. practice advice to the trams, bus and coach • a liquid bomb plot in 2006, where sectors. terrorists attempted to circumvent In 2019, the Stena Impero, a ship sailing security under the UK flag and registered in London, Communications • a failed detonation in December 2009 on was seized by the Iranian Revolutionary The ‘See it. Say it. Sorted.’ campaign has a flight from Amsterdam to Detroit Guard. This demonstrates the potential for been successfully established across the • explosives concealed in printer cartridges maritime incidents, whether they originate railway and subway sector to raise public on cargo planes in October 2010 from proscribed organisations or are state- awareness of potential terrorist attacks. It • the Australian authorities’ foiling of an sponsored. provides the public with a simple but effective aviation-related plot in 2017 response to suspicious activity. What’s being done about the risk? Attacks on airport infrastructure include Channel Tunnel Brussels Airport in March 2016 and Istanbul There are several mitigation measures which Eurostar, tourist shuttles and freight are Airport in June 2016. reduce the vulnerability of potential targets, subject to security screening requirements. limit attackers’ ability to make explosives or Maritime get hold of weaponry and other dangerous British Transport Police substances, and ensure responders are able The British Transport Police work with In the 1970s and 1980s, the UK suffered to operate effectively. industry and DfT on security, and provide attacks and attempted attacks on shipping dedicated, specialised and tailored policing of and ferries from republican groups. Land transport the railway network. Internationally, a number of attacks have taken place overseas, such as: Regulation and monitoring National railways, Channel Tunnel services,

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Aviation Partners work together to improve and deliver global aviation security. Screening Passengers, luggage and all staff working in Cargo restricted airport areas undergo consistent The UK’s cargo regime sets out security and regular screening. screening standards for all in-bound and out- bound cargo. Separation Physical barriers are placed between Maritime incoming international passengers and all outbound travellers in airports. Standards DfT defines and oversees the regulatory Passengers, luggage and airport staff undergo consistent and regular screening. Vetting regime for the security of UK ports and UK- Staff working in sensitive roles undergo flagged ships. background checks. Inspections In-flight security and inspections DfT conducts both announced and In-flight security includes hardened and unannounced inspections of port security lockable cockpit doors and restrictions on the regimes. The Maritime and Coastguard goods allowed on board or provided by the Agency undertakes ships security air crew. The Civil Aviation Authority conducts inspections. regular inspections to ensure safety and security measures are being upheld. Engagement Government actively engages with domestic Overseas and international partners to strengthen our The government gives security guidance to maritime borders and improve UK maritime UK airlines operating abroad and engages security measures. proactively with partners such as the International Civil Aviation Organization.

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Useful information and advice Additional online resources

The police, British Transport Police and • British Transport Police partners in the UK and abroad work hard • Protecting publicly accessible locations to keep us safe from threats. Attacks on from terrorism transport are infrequent, but the simple ‘run, • Transport security hide, tell’ guidance is useful and relevant for many transport locations such as ships or airports. ‘Run, hide, tell’ video guidance is available online.

To help prevent attacks, the public can also report unusual activity and unattended items to a member of staff or the police.

The police can be contacted on their non- emergency number on 101 across the UK. Always call 999 in an emergency.

Individuals using the railway network, London Underground and certain light rail and tram systems can also contact BTP by texting, 61016 or by visiting their website.

Everyone should remember the simple campaign advice: “If you see something that doesn’t look right, speak to a member of staff: we’ll sort it. See It. Say It. Sorted.”

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Attacks on infrastructure CNI sectors represent a core strategic interest for foreign intelligence services What’s the risk? who can target sectors for their economic and diplomatic gain, through, for example, Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) are the espionage activity. The terrorist threat to facilities, systems, sites, information, people, infrastructure is, for the most part, more networks and processes that keep the UK limited, though remains aspirational for many running and provide the essential services we international terrorist groups who may deploy all rely on. improvised explosive devices or chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons These services could include essential to disrupt sectors. In addition, the emergency human needs, such as electricity or water. services and defence sectors in particular They could be critical to the running of the do face an increased threat from dissident UK, such as telecommunications. Or they republican groups in Northern Ireland. could provide a benefit such as healthcare to the general public. A list of the UK’s current Consequences of an attack on infrastructure Government is working with industry to map UK CNI national infrastructure sectors is available may include: assets and identify critical vulnerabilities. online. • fatalities and physical and / or Attacks on infrastructure can be carried psychological casualties out through a variety of methods, including • damage to property and infrastructure explosives, cyber attack, or through ‘insider • loss of personal data attack’. Specific information on cyber risk can • disruption to essential services, such as be found on page 127. energy, transport and telecommunications • economic impacts • possible evacuation and shelter of local residents or employees

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Have such events happened before? What’s being done about the risk? security threats. The National Cyber Security Centre advises government and industry Terrorists in the UK have previously attacked, The mitigation methods elaborated on pages on how to secure cyber infrastructure, or planned to attack, national infrastructure. 111 and 112 are relevant to infrastructure and how to respond to cyber security Attempts were made to attack electricity attacks as they: incidents. The Cabinet Office’s Government substations in the 1990s. Bishopsgate, in the Security Group sets cross-government City of London, was attacked in 1993 and • limit attackers’ ability to acquire weaponry policies and standards relating to people, South Quay in London’s Docklands in 1996. or other dangerous materials physical and cyber security. This ensures • reduce the vulnerability of potential targets that critical systems are as secure and Outside the UK, terrorists have carried • ensure that responders to an incident can resilient as possible. More broadly, the UK out attacks against energy infrastructure operate effectively has a comprehensive and well-established – recently, militarised drones were used to programme of work to protect our national attack Saudi Aramco’s facilities at Abqaiq and The following activities further reduce the risk infrastructure from terrorism and other Khurais. Attacks have also targeted financial to infrastructure. security threats. institutions and government buildings. The worst of these was against the World Trade Reducing vulnerability Common capabilities and responses Center, the Pentagon and Pennsylvania, United States, in 2001, resulting in 2,977 Specialist advice Effective planning fatalities and over 6,000 casualties. The Centre for the Protection of National The consequences of attacks on infrastructure Infrastructure is the government authority (and the plans to deal with them) are often the providing protective security advice to same as for an industrial accident at a critical businesses and organisations who own or national infrastructure site (see page 77). operate UK CNI. They provide integrated Developing plans that can be used in a range advice on physical and personnel security, of situations is an efficient and effective means which aims to reduce risk and vulnerability of ensuring capabilities are in place to deal to terrorism, espionage and other national with a variety of emergencies.

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Physical protective security Useful information and advice Additional online resources

Technology and architecture Police and partners in the UK and abroad • Centre for the Protection of National Barriers such as retractable bollards protect work hard to keep us safe from threats. Infrastructure a variety of urban or industrial infrastructure Attacks on infrastructure are infrequent, but • National Cyber Security Centre sites from vehicle attacks. Architecture offers the simple ‘run, hide, tell’ guidance is useful • National Counter Terrorism Security 24-hour protection and can be cheaper and and relevant for many transport locations Office more sustainable than more active security such as ships or airports. ‘Run, hide, tell’ • Guidance on protecting crowded measures, such as security personnel. video guidance is available online. places from a terrorist attack Other measures, such as CCTV, anti-drone technology and fencing are also effective The British Transport Police’s ‘See it. Say deterrents to potential terrorist activity. it. Sorted’ guidance on page 120 is also relevant. Alerting security to suspicious Criticalities work activity is as important at utilities buildings or major offices as it is in airports or train Identifying vulnerabilities stations. Government, in conjunction with industry, is mapping UK CNI assets to identify critical Businesses can follow Metropolitan Police vulnerabilities. This mapping will inform our guidance on ‘Protecting your business from security and resilience practices. terrorism’ as a first step in mitigating attacks. They can also seek advice from Counter Terrorism Security Advisers via the National Counter Terrorism Security Office.

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Chemical, biological, radiological widespread dispersal of a biological agent or and nuclear attacks the detonation of an improvised nuclear device.

What’s the risk? Larger-scale CBRN attacks have never happened in the UK, but would be more Malicious actors including terrorists, hostile challenging to respond to than other states or criminals remain interested in malicious attacks, due to the potential health chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear impacts and widespread environmental (CBRN) attack methods. In the UK, it is contamination. CBRN events can also assessed that terrorists are more likely to present responders and those affected with use knives, vehicles or improvised explosive significant levels of uncertainty about what devices. However, the threat of CBRN attacks has happened, and the scientific evidence cannot be ruled out. may evolve as the incident unfolds. This has the potential to generate a high incidence of CBRN attacks have the potential to kill, injure psychological impacts including anxiety. and cause wide-ranging harm. Depending CBRN attacks have the potential to kill, injure and on the method used, there is potential for In addition to causing fatalities and casualties cause wide-ranging harm. catastrophic blast damage, widespread (both physical and psychological) and infection, or contamination of people, environmental contamination, other potential animals, the environment, buildings, water impacts may include: supplies and food. The UK government works hard to prevent malicious actors from gaining • widespread impacts on human welfare, the knowledge and materials necessary to including from the cross-contamination of conduct CBRN attacks. individuals • permanent loss or damage to property Attacks could vary from small, targeted and infrastructure incidents, to large catastrophic events at the • the need to evacuate and shelter of highest end of the spectrum, such as the affected individuals

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• disruption to critical services, particularly • an attack in 2018 on Sergei Skripal, A comprehensive nationwide programme transport but potentially across all sectors a former Russian military intelligence includes the following common capabilities • economic damage, including disruption to officer, and his daughter, Yulia Skripal, in and responses: business and tourism Salisbury, and the subsequent death of • adverse behavioural responses, including Dawn Sturgess in Amesbury on 8 July Planning outrage and loss of confidence in 2018 from exposure to Novichok, a Plans to deal with a CBRN incident are kept government and changes in individual chemical warfare agent up to date and regularly tested in exercises. behaviour patterns due to fears of further events What’s being done about the risk? Training All emergency responders are trained in Have such events happened before? The government continues to reduce the the immediate steps needed to save lives vulnerability of the UK to CBRN attacks after a CBRN incident. General responders Examples of CBRN preparation or attacks through activity including: are supported by specialists across the outside of active warzones include: emergency services, who are trained to • improving methods to detect and operate in hazardous environments. Test • the use of sarin by the terror group Aum monitor CBRN materials, including exercises have assured the quality of this Shinrikyo on the Tokyo underground through the UK border response, which was also successfully system in 1995, resulting in 13 fatalities • limiting access to hazardous materials deployed in Salisbury and Amesbury in and at least 6,300 casualties and their precursors 2018–19. • letters containing anthrax mailed to • improving and maintaining capabilities government buildings in the USA in 2001, to enable emergency responders to Disposal resulting in five fatalities and 17 casualties respond effectively, rapidly and safely to If a device is identified before it functions, the • Alexander Litvinenko’s death on CBRN events police and armed forces have the capabilities 23 November 2006 in London from • ensuring guidance is available before and to render CBRN devices inoperable and to poisoning by Polonium-210 during incidents, and increasing public safely dispose of the hazardous material. • a foiled plot in Cologne in 2018 where a access to information on what to do terrorist had bought materials for, and during general and hazardous materials had started to manufacture, ricin, a emergencies to minimise the risk to biologically-derived toxin the public

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Medical countermeasures Useful information and advice • remove outer clothing The government maintains national stocks • undergo some form of decontamination of medical treatments with arrangements in Individuals who suspect a CBRN incident has (e.g. dry decontamination and / or place for how these would be distributed in taken place should: showering – see the Joint Emergency an emergency. Services Interoperability Principles) • remove themselves from the hazard to Evacuation and shelter avoid further exposure In some situations, people may also be Local authorities can adapt existing plans • remain in the general area if it is safe to advised to take shelter in the nearest for other large-scale incidents to support do so appropriate buildings. affected individuals. • contact the emergency services on 999 • follow their instructions Decontamination The emergency services are regularly It is also recommended to remove outer trained and equipped to decontaminate clothing, which is potentially contaminated, Additional online resources large numbers of people. The Department as soon as possible. Await the arrival of for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs the emergency services and follow their • CPNI: Recognising terrorist threats has mechanisms in place to enable instructions. guide decontamination of buildings and • Initial operational response to a CBRN environments. Emergency responders are trained to deal Incident with these kinds of events. They may need to • CBRN emergencies Government continuity use PPE as seen in the image below. • Guide to protecting and defending food Plans are in place to ensure effective civil and drink from deliberate attack government can continue throughout and If emergency responders think a person after an incident. has been exposed to a potentially harmful substance, the person could be asked to leave the immediate vicinity of the hazard (remaining nearby at a safe location) and, if not already done:

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Cyber attacks and reach of a crime (such as cyber-enabled networks, for example, by encrypting or non-fiscal fraud). States and state-sponsored destroying data on which vital services What’s the risk? threats tend to be politically motivated, and depend. Such attacks can impact critical may attempt to access and cause disruption national services, and could cause a variety The integration of the internet into our daily to strategic systems across: of real-world harm if services like the NHS lives has been a continuous trend in the 21st are impacted. century. Individuals, businesses, charities and • government government all rely on digital technology and • the electoral system Financial loss is the most common impact, online capability, including in the delivery of • the wider public sector through both direct loss of funds as well as essential and public-facing services. • other key sectors recovery costs and reputational impacts. When attacks occur against individuals, there The COVID-19 pandemic has emphasised The cyber environment is also a space are emotional as well as financial impacts. our reliance on digital technologies, both where terrorist groups, hacktivists and Stress, anxiety and depression are commonly through personal communication and through insider threats can carry out activity that cited in victim surveys, with some victims business and government’s ability to work causes harm and disruption to the UK and experiencing long-lasting effects. remotely in support of the national response. its citizens. As a whole, public confidence may be While there are huge opportunities and Information available online, such as affected if organisations are not able to benefits for individuals and businesses, hacking guides and malware, allows less adequately protect their systems. our vulnerabilities become greater as we capable individuals and organisations to increasingly rely on cyberspace. conduct malicious activity. As software and Have such events happened before? hardware develops, there is a race to ensure The range of malicious actors as well as the systems and networks are protected before The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), range of targets continues to expand. Cyber malicious actors can identify weaknesses and the UK’s national technical authority on criminals engage in criminal activity to exploit exploit them. cyber security, responded to over 600 cyber weaknesses in online systems, usually for incidents in 2019 and over 700 in 2020. Since financial gain. As well as using technology Any sector of our economy and society that it began operating, the NCSC has provided to commit a crime (such as hacking to steal uses IT networks and systems is vulnerable to support to almost 1,200 victim organisations data), offenders can also increase the scale the threat. Cyber attacks can cripple essential and handled over 2,500 incidents. This

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included the global and high-profile experienced by adults aged 16 and over in Active Cyber Defence (ACD) WannaCry incident in 2017 which caused the UK. This included offences such as the The NCSC’s ACD programme aims to serious disruption to the NHS. spreading of viruses, hacking or gaining enhance the UK’s national resilience. It unauthorised access to information, or automatically protects UK internet users from More recently, during the COVID-19 denial-of-service attacks that disrupt or take the vast majority of crude, high-volume cyber pandemic, a number of state and non-state down networks and websites. While this is attacks. It also implements security measures actors have attempted to take advantage of lower than the previous year, the large volume to strengthen the security of networks and the situation – either to exploit changes in still shows the scale of the threat. systems to make them more robust against working patterns, or for intelligence gathering attack. Its products include Mail Check, Web and disruption. What’s being done about the risk? Check, Takedown Service and a national Domain Name Service. According to the Cyber Security Breaches Strategy Survey, almost half of businesses (46%) and The National Cyber Security Strategy 2016– Incentives and regulation one-quarter of charities (26%) report having 2021, supported by £1.9 billion in investment, Since 2016, government has strengthened cyber security breaches or attacks in the last sets out the government response to ensuring its wider regulation with an impact on cyber 12 months. Like previous years, this is higher that government, CNI, businesses and citizens security, and continues to implement new among medium businesses (68%), large are as resilient as possible to cyber threats. legislation including the Data Protection businesses (75%) and high-income charities Act, General Data Protection Regulation, (57%). Among the 46% of businesses that Advice and support and the Network and Information Systems identify breaches or attacks, more are The NCSC, part of GCHQ, was launched in Regulations. Existing sectoral regulatory experiencing these issues at least once a October 2016. It supports the most critical frameworks have also been improved. week in 2020 (32% vs. 22% in 2017). organisations in the UK, the wider public Government is also responding to industry sector, industry, SMEs and the general evidence on the barriers organisations face In the year ending March 2019, it is estimated public. When incidents do occur, the NCSC in managing cyber security risks, and the that there were just under one million responds to minimise harm to the UK, help effectiveness of existing approaches. (966,000) incidents of computer misuse with recovery, and learn lessons for the future.

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Law enforcement response The NCA’s Cyber Crime Unit, Regional Organised Crime Units, and dedicated cyber crime units in every police force in England The National Cyber Security Centre supports the public sector, industry, SMEs and the general public and Wales provide a local-to-national to maintain cyber security. response in countering cyber threats. They also support individuals and businesses who fall victim to cybercrime.

Secure by design The government aims to protect citizens and the economy from the harms that can arise from vulnerable internet-connected products. It intends to safeguard consumers by building automated protections into product design. Following public consultation, the government has communicated its plan to legislate to improve security standards of internet-connected household devices, building on a Code of Practice.

International collaboration The UK is committed to promoting international stability based on the application of existing international law, voluntary norms of responsible state behaviour and confidence-building measures endorsed by the United Nations General Assembly.

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Useful information and advice Additional online resources

Cyber security is everyone’s responsibility. It • National Cyber Security Centre is vital that all individuals and organisations • Cyber resilience guidance for Scotland embrace and embed cyber security in their • Northern Ireland Cyber Security Centre online practices. • National Cyber Security Centre Annual Review 2020 See the National Cyber Security Centre’s • National Cyber Security Centre - website for information and advice on: reports and advisories • 2016 National Cyber Security Strategy • dealing with common cyber problems • Cyber security advice for sole traders • protecting data and devices • Advice for small and medium enterprises Cyber crimes can be reported to Action • Advice for large organisations Fraud at www.actionfraud.police.uk or on 0300 123 2040.

They can also be reported to the police, or Crimestoppers on 0800 555 111 or www. crimestoppers-uk.org

The NCSC published guidance on secure home working, online shopping and secure use of video conferencing to help the public stay secure online during the COVID-19 pandemic. NCSC’s Cyber Aware campaign provides further information on the steps individuals and small businesses can take to protect themselves online.

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Disinformation national elections. This can include foreign Consequences of successful disinformation states, extremist groups and criminals. The campaigns may include: What’s the risk? act of spreading disinformation is not illegal, but the content may be, for example if it • reduced trust in institutions, experts, Disinformation is the concerted effort to encourages violence or criminal damage, sources of accurate information or create and deliberately spread false or constitutes a hate crime, or presents a democracy itself manipulated information to deceive and threat to life. • failure to follow advice that keeps the mislead for political, personal or financial gain. individual and others safe Disinformation has a corrosive effect on • actions that are dangerous to individuals It often targets a specific topic or groups the ‘information environment’ – that is, and others – such as attacks on minority of people and can involve the creation and the places and sources where people get groups or elected representatives, dissemination of false content. It often targets their information and news. Disinformation refusal to follow essential safeguarding and exploits social media platforms, for spreading on social and traditional media instructions, and disorder or violence example by creating multiple fake accounts makes it harder for people to distinguish against people or infrastructure and using them to spread false information. between what is true and what is false. They may become more likely to subscribe to false False or manipulated information is not In contrast, misinformation is the unintentional explanations and theories rather than facts. easy to spot. It may take subtle forms which sharing of false information. While it may not make it difficult to distinguish from legitimate be deliberate, it can still have similar harmful Continued disinformation campaigns can information or online content. Any delay effects. lead to a greater susceptibility to believe in discovering and taking action against false information and the refusal to accept disinformation allows more individuals to see, Disinformation can be used by a range of accurate, fact-based information. People and potentially believe and even act on, that people and groups with malicious intent to may then take actions or decisions based false information. promote their own causes, create division on incorrect information. These actions or among communities and undermine decisions can be directly harmful to the False information can take on a life of its own democratic processes such as local or individual concerned or others. and have some serious consequences. It can lead to health scares, false accusations and potentially damaging hoax stories.

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Have such events happened before? What’s being done about the risk? Existing measures to address disinformation and misinformation include: This risk can take many forms and have Tackling disinformation in all its forms remains different effects. False information about the a key priority for the UK, and the Department Rapid Response Unit COVID-19 pandemic has included: for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) is Since 2018, the unit has operated from leading work across government to tackle this. within the Cabinet Office and Number 10 to • pages promoting false (and sometimes tackle a range of harmful narratives online – harmful) COVID-19 cures To reduce the potential impact of from purported ‘experts’ issuing dangerous • misinformation over public health, disinformation, it is important to take account misinformation to criminal fraudsters running including anti-vaccination narratives not only of the actors involved, but also of: phishing scams. • conspiracy theories falsely linking COVID-19 with 5G technology • the environment that enables them to Cross-Whitehall Counter Disinformation Unit – this was linked to real-world harms spread and amplify false information The unit is ‘stood up’ during periods of including 5G masts being burned and • the audience that they reach acute disinformation risk to provide a abuse of telecoms staff comprehensive picture of the extent, This cannot and should not be done by scope and reach of disinformation and Another example is a disinformation government alone. It can only be achieved misinformation, and to work with partners to campaign spread by Russian news sources through working with industry, the media take action. The unit has been stepped up following the Salisbury and Amesbury and civil society institutions, and international during the COVID-19 pandemic and during Novichok poisonings in 2018. Over 40 partners. election periods. different conspiracy theories were sown by the Russian state and through its proxies.

These stories cast doubt on the true version of events and made it harder for the public to understand what had happened.

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Providing accurate COVID-19 information Reponse to the Online Harms White Paper Government is committed to ensuring In February 2020, government published the that the information people access about initial response to the Online Harms White the virus is accurate. The government is Paper. The government response shared working with industry to introduce systems initial consultation findings and indicated how and processes that promote authoritative it will move forward on the key themes which sources of information, and to help social emerged from the consultation responses. media platforms identify and remove incorrect Government will publish a full response to claims about the virus, in line with their terms the Online Harms White Paper consultation and conditions. later this year. This will include more detailed proposals on online harms regulation and SHARE checklist will be released alongside interim voluntary The checklist aims to help those who see, codes on tackling online terrorist and child inadvertently share, or are affected by false sexual exploitation and abuse content and and misleading information. It includes activity. This will be followed with legislation five easy steps to identify false content, in early 2021. Government will ensure that encouraging users to stop and think before there are safeguards in the legislation, so they share content online. companies and the new regulator have a clear responsibility to protect users’ rights online, Digital growth including freedom of expression. While action More generally, government is working to is being taken to address false narratives ensure that the UK can be the safest place in online, the government will continue to ensure the world to be online, and the best place to that freedom of expression in the UK is grow and start a digital business. protected and enhanced online.

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Useful information and advice • Source: make sure the story is written by a trusted source with a reputation It is critical that consumers of information for accuracy. If it’s from an unfamiliar follow official government guidance, including organisation, check the website’s ‘about’ the SHARE checklist. This includes basic but section. Rely on official sources for essential advice such as checking the source medical and safety information. of a story and analysing the facts before • Headline: always read beyond the sharing. If followed correctly, it will help to headline. If it sounds unbelievable, it protect lives and livelihoods. very well might be. Be wary if something doesn’t seem to add up. • Analyse: check the facts. Just because a story is circulating, it doesn’t mean it’s true. Use fact-checking websites and other reliable sources to double check. • Retouched: check whether images look manipulated. False news stories often contain retouched photos or re-edited clips, or show an unrelated place or event. Sometimes they are authentic, but have been taken out of context. • Error: look out for mistakes. Typos and The Government launched the Share Checklist in 2019 to help other errors might mean the information people know what information they are consuming. is false. Many false news stories have phony or look-alike URLs. Look out for misspellings, bad grammar or awkward layouts.

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Risks occurring overseas • falling ill and requiring medical assistance Have such events happened before? • travel disruptions due to cancellations or What’s the risk? delays While the majority of visits overseas are • being caught up in political events, trouble-free, incidents do happen. Prior to the Incidents and accidents overseas may put protests or terrorist attacks COVID-19 pandemic, approximately 350,000 individuals’ safety and security at risk while people a year contacted the Foreign and travelling or living abroad. Wherever people Incidents which could require a crisis Commonwealth Office (FCO: the predecessor are in the world, the host government has response from the UK government include: to the FCDO) and its network of posts for responsibility for ensuring the safety of its consular assistance advice, with 85% of citizens and overseas visitors or residents, • civil or political unrest of such severity queries being resolved on first contact. including during a crisis situation. that the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) may advise The level of response and assistance from leaving the country local authorities may differ across and • events which cause disruption and between countries. The likelihood or severity hardship to large numbers of British of risks may be higher in certain countries and people, such as the collapse of travel regions. When incidents or accidents occur in companies, major airport shutdowns unfamiliar environments in foreign countries, or other large-scale disruption to it can be more difficult to know where to find international transport (such as during the assistance. COVID-19 pandemic) • an incident in which large numbers of Types of incident and accident which may British people are or could be killed affect individuals travelling overseas include: or injured, such as conflict, terrorism, major transport incidents, major disease • accidents concerning modes of transport outbreaks and natural disasters such as such as road vehicles, aircraft or boats earthquakes, hurricanes and tsunamis • being targeted by criminals, such as theft, The FCDO’s network of embassies and High Commissions kidnapping or scams can assist British travellers who find themselves in difficulty overseas.

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In 2019, the FCO also responded to What’s being done about the risk? provide additional support where individuals 15 separate crisis situations where British are not able to help themselves, and where it nationals were affected, including the Safer worldwide environment will not put staff members at risk. The FCDO Ethiopian Airlines crash in March, the terrorist The UK government works to create a safer provides guidance to help people prepare bombings in Sri Lanka in April, the impact environment worldwide, through: for travel and avoid difficult situations. This of Hurricane Dorian in The Bahamas in includes the government’s ‘Run, Hide, Tell’ September, and the largest-ever peacetime • working with international partners such advice, running Travel Aware campaigns repatriation of over 144,000 people following as the UN and NATO to increase global both in the UK and overseas, and providing the collapse of Thomas Cook. security advice on individual country risks through the • helping the development of countries GOV.UK travel advice pages. At the start of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic through overseas development aid led to the repatriation of 180 British projects Overseas staff people from Wuhan, China in January. • engaging with other governments to Where British people do find themselves in By the summer the UK government had help prepare for and respond to natural difficulty, the FCDO’s network of embassies brought home more than 38,000 British disasters to help reduce their impact and High Commissions can assist travellers travellers on 186 charter flights using a who aren’t able to help themselves. Consular new and exceptional operating model of The FCDO has around 17,300 staff in support officers are trained to provide working globally with airlines, commercial diplomatic and development offices worldwide, assistance in a wide variety of situations and partners and foreign governments. The including in 280 overseas embassies and are available for emergencies 24 / 7. They UK government also helped some 19,000 High Commissions. Staff build and maintain work with local authorities, including hospitals passengers to return from international cruise diplomatic networks and strong relationships and police, to make navigating their services ships. At the same time, the UK government with other countries on many issues. easier for British people. In a crisis scenario, worked with global partners to keep key the FCDO has a response structure which routes and transit hubs open, which helped Public information and awareness includes deploying extra staff overseas to an estimated 1.3 million people to return to When travelling overseas, individuals should support British nationals and other eligible the UK by commercial routes. take steps to ensure their own personal people as defined in Support for British safety. The UK government is only able to nationals abroad: a guide.

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Useful information and advice Choosing to go to a place against FCDO Prescribed medicine (enough to cover travel advice may seriously restrict the help the duration of the trip) and a copy of People travelling overseas should always that can be provided, and may invalidate the prescription should be taken abroad. read and follow the relevant country advice health insurance. Travellers should take out Travellers should check that their medication provided by the UK government, as well as travel insurance which covers pre-existing is legal in the country by contacting the any information provided by that country’s medical conditions and any planned activities, foreign embassy. government and local authorities. including adventurous ones. Without adequate insurance, travellers will have to pay Passports and any necessary visas must Travellers should check travel advice and for any emergency costs such as medical bills be valid and in good condition. Emergency sign up for country-specific travel advice or additional flights. contact details within the passport should be updates. FCDO travel advice will help filled in. It is also useful to take a picture of the travellers form their own judgements about At least eight weeks before travel, travellers personal details page of the passport. travelling or living in a particular country, and should check the latest country-specific will provide any new information. Travellers health advice on the National Travel Family and friends should be provided with: should also seek out news reports of any Health Network and Centre (NaTHNac) problems in the area they are visiting. TravelHealthPro website. The advice covers • copies of passports travel-related risks and diseases, including • copies of travel insurance policies (plus The FCDO provides updates at vaccine recommendations. Health advisors the insurer’s 24-hour emergency number) @FCDOtraveladvice on Twitter and or pharmacies can then advise on other • ticket details @FCDOtravel on Facebook. preventive measures and managing pre- • trip itinerary existing medical conditions while abroad. • contact details

Guidance is also available from NHS Travellers should take copies of these items (Scotland)’s fitfortravel website and the with them, too. NHS website.

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It’s important to take enough money and Additional online resources some backup funds, credit cards, travellers’ cheques, or prepaid cash cards. Individuals • Foreign travel checklist should know how to replace a credit card if • Country-specific travel advice it’s lost or stolen, and how to contact their • Travel Aware campaign bank. Keep a separate note of their phone • Support for British nationals abroad – numbers. FCDO Guide • List of British embassies and High Guidebooks have plenty of information on Commissions local laws and customs, and the standards • Counter Terrorism Policing – Stay Safe of behaviour people expected in the country. Abroad Travellers should be aware of personal security and take sensible precautions.

If an incident does occur abroad, individuals should follow the advice of local authorities and their travel company. Consular assistance is available for emergency situations 24 / 7, so it’s also worth noting down the local telephone number of the relevant British embassy.

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