Lecture Handout Optimal and Adaptive Filtering
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Implications of Rational Inattention
IMPLICATIONS OF RATIONAL INATTENTION CHRISTOPHER A. SIMS Abstract. A constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite Shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems. The resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical, while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting. I. Introduction Keynes's seminal idea was to trace out the equilibrium implications of the hypothe- sis that markets did not function the way a seamless model of continuously optimizing agents, interacting in continuously clearing markets would suggest. His formal de- vice, price \stickiness", is still controversial, but those critics of it who fault it for being inconsistent with the assumption of continuously optimizing agents interacting in continuously clearing markets miss the point. This is its appeal, not its weakness. The influential competitors to Keynes's idea are those that provide us with some other description of the nature of the deviations from the seamless model that might account for important aspects of macroeconomic fluctuations. Lucas's 1973 clas- sic \International Evidence: : :" paper uses the idea that agents may face a signal- extraction problem in distinguishing movements in the aggregate level of prices and wages from movements in the specific prices they encounter in transactions. Much of subsequent rational expectations macroeconomic modeling has relied on the more tractable device of assuming an \information delay", so that some kinds of aggregate data are observable to some agents only with a delay, though without error after the delay. -
The Physics of Optimal Decision Making: a Formal Analysis of Models of Performance in Two-Alternative Forced-Choice Tasks
Psychological Review Copyright 2006 by the American Psychological Association 2006, Vol. 113, No. 4, 700–765 0033-295X/06/$12.00 DOI: 10.1037/0033-295X.113.4.700 The Physics of Optimal Decision Making: A Formal Analysis of Models of Performance in Two-Alternative Forced-Choice Tasks Rafal Bogacz, Eric Brown, Jeff Moehlis, Philip Holmes, and Jonathan D. Cohen Princeton University In this article, the authors consider optimal decision making in two-alternative forced-choice (TAFC) tasks. They begin by analyzing 6 models of TAFC decision making and show that all but one can be reduced to the drift diffusion model, implementing the statistically optimal algorithm (most accurate for a given speed or fastest for a given accuracy). They prove further that there is always an optimal trade-off between speed and accuracy that maximizes various reward functions, including reward rate (percentage of correct responses per unit time), as well as several other objective functions, including ones weighted for accuracy. They use these findings to address empirical data and make novel predictions about performance under optimality. Keywords: drift diffusion model, reward rate, optimal performance, speed–accuracy trade-off, perceptual choice This article concerns optimal strategies for decision making in It has been known since Hernstein’s (1961, 1997) work that the two-alternative forced-choice (TAFC) task. We present and animals do not achieve optimality under all conditions, and in compare several decision-making models, briefly discuss their behavioral economics, humans often fail to choose optimally (e.g., neural implementations, and relate them to one that is optimal in Kahneman & Tversky, 1984; Loewenstein & Thaler, 1989). -
Statistical Decision Theory Bayesian and Quasi-Bayesian Estimators
Statistical Decision Theory Bayesian and Quasi-Bayesian estimators Giselle Montamat Harvard University Spring 2020 Statistical Decision Theory Bayesian and Quasi-Bayesian estimators 1 / Giselle Montamat 46 Statistical Decision Theory Framework to make a decision based on data (e.g., find the \best" estimator under some criteria for what \best" means; decide whether to retain/reward a teacher based on observed teacher value added estimates); criteria to decide what a good decision (e.g., a good estimator; whether to retain/reward a teacher) is. Ingredients: Data: \X " Statistical decision: \a" Decision function: \δ(X )" State of the world: \θ" Loss function: \L(a; θ)" Statistical model (likelihood): \f (X jθ)" Risk function (aka expected loss): Z R(δ; θ) = Ef (X jθ)[L(δ(X ); θ)] = L(δ(X ); θ)f (X jθ)dX Statistical Decision Theory Bayesian and Quasi-Bayesian estimators 2 / Giselle Montamat 46 Statistical Decision Theory Objective: estimate µ(θ) (could be µ(θ) = θ) using data X via δ(X ). (Note: here the decision is to choose an estimator; we'll see another example where the decision is a binary choice). Loss function L(a; θ): describes loss that we incur in if we take action a when true parameter value is θ. Note that estimation (\decision") will be based on data via δ(X ) = a, so loss is a function of the data and the true parameter, ie, L(δ(X ); θ). Criteria for what makes a \good" δ(X ), for a given θ: the expected loss (aka, the risk) has to be small, where the expectation is taken over X given model f (X jθ) for a given θ. -
Error Control for the Detection of Rare and Weak Signatures in Massive Data Céline Meillier, Florent Chatelain, Olivier Michel, H Ayasso
Error control for the detection of rare and weak signatures in massive data Céline Meillier, Florent Chatelain, Olivier Michel, H Ayasso To cite this version: Céline Meillier, Florent Chatelain, Olivier Michel, H Ayasso. Error control for the detection of rare and weak signatures in massive data. EUSIPCO 2015 - 23th European Signal Processing Conference, Aug 2015, Nice, France. hal-01198717 HAL Id: hal-01198717 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01198717 Submitted on 14 Sep 2015 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. ERROR CONTROL FOR THE DETECTION OF RARE AND WEAK SIGNATURES IN MASSIVE DATA Celine´ Meillier, Florent Chatelain, Olivier Michel, Hacheme Ayasso GIPSA-lab, Grenoble Alpes University, France n ABSTRACT a R the intensity vector. A few coefficients ai of a are 2 In this paper, we address the general issue of detecting rare expected to be non zero, and correspond to the intensities of and weak signatures in very noisy data. Multiple hypothe- the few sources that are observed. ses testing approaches can be used to extract a list of com- Model selection procedures are widely used to tackle this ponents of the data that are likely to be contaminated by a detection problem. -
Statistical Decision Theory: Concepts, Methods and Applications
Statistical Decision Theory: Concepts, Methods and Applications (Special topics in Probabilistic Graphical Models) FIRST COMPLETE DRAFT November 30, 2003 Supervisor: Professor J. Rosenthal STA4000Y Anjali Mazumder 950116380 Part I: Decision Theory – Concepts and Methods Part I: DECISION THEORY - Concepts and Methods Decision theory as the name would imply is concerned with the process of making decisions. The extension to statistical decision theory includes decision making in the presence of statistical knowledge which provides some information where there is uncertainty. The elements of decision theory are quite logical and even perhaps intuitive. The classical approach to decision theory facilitates the use of sample information in making inferences about the unknown quantities. Other relevant information includes that of the possible consequences which is quantified by loss and the prior information which arises from statistical investigation. The use of Bayesian analysis in statistical decision theory is natural. Their unification provides a foundational framework for building and solving decision problems. The basic ideas of decision theory and of decision theoretic methods lend themselves to a variety of applications and computational and analytic advances. This initial part of the report introduces the basic elements in (statistical) decision theory and reviews some of the basic concepts of both frequentist statistics and Bayesian analysis. This provides a foundational framework for developing the structure of decision problems. The second section presents the main concepts and key methods involved in decision theory. The last section of Part I extends this to statistical decision theory – that is, decision problems with some statistical knowledge about the unknown quantities. This provides a comprehensive overview of the decision theoretic framework. -
The Functional False Discovery Rate with Applications to Genomics
bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/241133; this version posted December 30, 2017. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-ND 4.0 International license. The Functional False Discovery Rate with Applications to Genomics Xiongzhi Chen*,† David G. Robinson,* and John D. Storey*‡ December 29, 2017 Abstract The false discovery rate measures the proportion of false discoveries among a set of hypothesis tests called significant. This quantity is typically estimated based on p-values or test statistics. In some scenarios, there is additional information available that may be used to more accurately estimate the false discovery rate. We develop a new framework for formulating and estimating false discovery rates and q-values when an additional piece of information, which we call an “informative variable”, is available. For a given test, the informative variable provides information about the prior probability a null hypothesis is true or the power of that particular test. The false discovery rate is then treated as a function of this informative variable. We consider two applications in genomics. Our first is a genetics of gene expression (eQTL) experiment in yeast where every genetic marker and gene expression trait pair are tested for associations. The informative variable in this case is the distance between each genetic marker and gene. Our second application is to detect differentially expressed genes in an RNA-seq study carried out in mice. -
A Frequency-Domain Adaptive Matched Filter for Active Sonar Detection
sensors Article A Frequency-Domain Adaptive Matched Filter for Active Sonar Detection Zhishan Zhao 1,2, Anbang Zhao 1,2,*, Juan Hui 1,2,*, Baochun Hou 3, Reza Sotudeh 3 and Fang Niu 1,2 1 Acoustic Science and Technology Laboratory, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China; [email protected] (Z.Z.); [email protected] (F.N.) 2 College of Underwater Acoustic Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China 3 School of Engineering and Technology, University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield AL10 9AB, UK; [email protected] (B.H.); [email protected] (R.S.) * Correspondence: [email protected] (A.Z.); [email protected] (J.H.); Tel.: +86-138-4511-7603 (A.Z.); +86-136-3364-1082 (J.H.) Received: 1 May 2017; Accepted: 29 June 2017; Published: 4 July 2017 Abstract: The most classical detector of active sonar and radar is the matched filter (MF), which is the optimal processor under ideal conditions. Aiming at the problem of active sonar detection, we propose a frequency-domain adaptive matched filter (FDAMF) with the use of a frequency-domain adaptive line enhancer (ALE). The FDAMF is an improved MF. In the simulations in this paper, the signal to noise ratio (SNR) gain of the FDAMF is about 18.6 dB higher than that of the classical MF when the input SNR is −10 dB. In order to improve the performance of the FDAMF with a low input SNR, we propose a pre-processing method, which is called frequency-domain time reversal convolution and interference suppression (TRC-IS). -
Optimal Trees for Prediction and Prescription Jack William Dunn
Optimal Trees for Prediction and Prescription by Jack William Dunn B.E.(Hons), University of Auckland (2014) Submitted to the Sloan School of Management in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Operations Research at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY June 2018 ○c Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2018. All rights reserved. Author................................................................ Sloan School of Management May 18, 2018 Certified by. Dimitris Bertsimas Boeing Professor of Operations Research Co-director, Operations Research Center Thesis Supervisor Accepted by . Patrick Jaillet Dugald C. Jackson Professor Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Co-Director, Operations Research Center Optimal Trees for Prediction and Prescription by Jack William Dunn Submitted to the Sloan School of Management on May 18, 2018, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Operations Research Abstract For the past 30 years, decision tree methods have been one of the most widely- used approaches in machine learning across industry and academia, due in large part to their interpretability. However, this interpretability comes at a price—the performance of classical decision tree methods is typically not competitive with state- of-the-art methods like random forests and gradient boosted trees. A key limitation of classical decision tree methods is their use of a greedy heuristic for training. The tree is therefore constructed one locally-optimal split at a time, and so the final tree as a whole may be far from global optimality. Motivated bythe increase in performance of mixed-integer optimization methods over the last 30 years, we formulate the problem of constructing the optimal decision tree using discrete optimization, allowing us to construct the entire decision tree in a single step and hence find the single tree that best minimizes the training error. -
Rational Inattention in Controlled Markov Processes
Rational Inattention in Controlled Markov Processes Ehsan Shafieepoorfard, Maxim Raginsky and Sean P. Meyn Abstract— The paper poses a general model for optimal Sims considers a model in which a representative agent control subject to information constraints, motivated in part decides about his consumption over subsequent periods of by recent work on information-constrained decision-making by time, while his computational ability to reckon his wealth – economic agents. In the average-cost optimal control frame- work, the general model introduced in this paper reduces the state of the dynamic system – is limited. A special case is to a variant of the linear-programming representation of the considered in which income in one period adds uncertainty average-cost optimal control problem, subject to an additional of wealth in the next period. Other modeling assumptions mutual information constraint on the randomized stationary reduce the model to an LQG control problem. As one policy. The resulting optimization problem is convex and admits justification for introducing the information constraint, Sims a decomposition based on the Bellman error, which is the object of study in approximate dynamic programming. The remarks [7] that “most people are only vaguely aware of their structural results presented in this paper can be used to obtain net worth, are little-influenced in their current behavior by performance bounds, as well as algorithms for computation or the status of their retirement account, and can be induced to approximation of optimal policies. make large changes in savings behavior by minor ‘informa- tional’ changes, like changes in default options on retirement I. INTRODUCTION plans.” Quantitatively, the information constraint is stated in terms of an upper bound on the mutual information in the In typical applications of stochastic dynamic program- sense of Shannon [8] between the state of the system and ming, the controller has access to limited information about the observation available to the agent. -
Anomaly Detection Based on Wavelet Domain GARCH Random Field Modeling Amir Noiboar and Israel Cohen, Senior Member, IEEE
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON GEOSCIENCE AND REMOTE SENSING, VOL. 45, NO. 5, MAY 2007 1361 Anomaly Detection Based on Wavelet Domain GARCH Random Field Modeling Amir Noiboar and Israel Cohen, Senior Member, IEEE Abstract—One-dimensional Generalized Autoregressive Con- Markov noise. It is also claimed that objects in imagery create a ditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model is widely used for response over several scales in a multiresolution representation modeling financial time series. Extending the GARCH model to of an image, and therefore, the wavelet transform can serve as multiple dimensions yields a novel clutter model which is capable of taking into account important characteristics of a wavelet-based a means for computing a feature set for input to a detector. In multiscale feature space, namely heavy-tailed distributions and [17], a multiscale wavelet representation is utilized to capture innovations clustering as well as spatial and scale correlations. We periodical patterns of various period lengths, which often ap- show that the multidimensional GARCH model generalizes the pear in natural clutter images. In [12], the orientation and scale casual Gauss Markov random field (GMRF) model, and we de- selectivity of the wavelet transform are related to the biological velop a multiscale matched subspace detector (MSD) for detecting anomalies in GARCH clutter. Experimental results demonstrate mechanisms of the human visual system and are utilized to that by using a multiscale MSD under GARCH clutter modeling, enhance mammographic features. rather than GMRF clutter modeling, a reduced false-alarm rate Statistical models for clutter and anomalies are usually can be achieved without compromising the detection rate. related to the Gaussian distribution due to its mathematical Index Terms—Anomaly detection, Gaussian Markov tractability. -
WS 2014/15 – „Report 3: Kalman Or Wiener Filters“ – Stefan Feilmeier
1 Embedded Systems – WS 2014/15 – „Report 3: Kalman or Wiener Filters“ – Stefan Feilmeier Facultatea de Inginerie Hermann Oberth Master-Program “Embedded Systems“ Advanced Digital Signal Processing Methods Winter Semester 2014/2015 Report 3 Kalman or Wiener Filters Professor: Prof. dr. ing. Mihu Ioan Masterand: Stefan Feilmeier 15.01.2015 2 Embedded Systems – WS 2014/15 – „Report 3: Kalman or Wiener Filters“ – Stefan Feilmeier TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Overview 3 1.1 Spectral Filters 3 1.2 Adaptive Filters 4 2 Wiener-Filter 6 2.1 History 6 2.2 Definition 6 2.3 Example 7 3 Kalman-Filter 9 3.1 History 9 3.2 Definition 9 3.3 Example 10 4 Conclusions 11 Table of Figures 12 Table of Equations 12 List of References 13 3 Embedded Systems – WS 2014/15 – „Report 3: Kalman or Wiener Filters“ – Stefan Feilmeier 1 OVERVIEW Everywhere in the real world we are surrounded by signals like temperature, sound, voltage and so on. To extract useful information, to further process or analyse them, it is necessary to use filters. 1.1 SPECTRAL FILTERS The term “filter” traditionally refers to spectral filters with constant coefficients like “Finite Impulse Response” (FIR) or “Infinite Impulse Response” (IIR). To apply such filters, a constant, periodic signal is converted from time domain to frequency domain, in order to analyse its spectral attributes and filter it as required, typically using fixed Low-Pass, Band-Pass or High-Pass filters. Fig. 1 shows this process on the example of two signals – with the original signals in blue colour and the signals after filtering in green colour. -
Coherent Detection
Coherent Detection Reading: • Ch. 4 in Kay-II. • (Part of) Ch. III.B in Poor. EE 527, Detection and Estimation Theory, # 5b 1 Coherent Detection (of A Known Deterministic Signal) in Independent, Identically Distributed (I.I.D.) Noise whose Pdf/Pmf is Exactly Known H0 : x[n] = w[n], n = 1, 2,...,N versus H1 : x[n] = s[n] + w[n], n = 1, 2,...,N where • s[n] is a known deterministic signal and • w[n] is i.i.d. noise with exactly known probability density or mass function (pdf/pmf). The scenario where the signal s[n], n = 1, 2,...,N is exactly known to the designer is sometimes referred to as the coherent- detection scenario. The likelihood ratio for this problem is QN p (x[n] − s[n]) Λ(x) = n=1 w QN n=1 pw(x[n]) EE 527, Detection and Estimation Theory, # 5b 2 and its logarithm is N−1 X hpw(x[n] − s[n])i log Λ(x) = log p (x[n]) n=0 w which needs to be compared with a threshold γ (say). Here is a schematic of our coherent detector: EE 527, Detection and Estimation Theory, # 5b 3 Example: Coherent Detection in AWGN (Ch. 4 in Kay-II) If the noise w[n] i.i.d.∼ N (0, σ2) (i.e. additive white Gaussian noise, AWGN) and noise variance σ2 is known, the likelihood- ratio test reduces to (upon taking log and scaling by σ2): N H 2 X 2 1 σ log Λ(x) = (x[n]s[n]−s [n]/2) ≷ γ (a threshold) (1) n=1 and is known as the correlator detector or simply correlator.