DOCSLIB.ORG

Reducing Risks from Global Imbalances Committee for Economic Development

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Reducing Risks from Global Imbalances Committee for Economic Development Reducing Risks From Global Imbalances Committee for Economic Development 2000 L Street N.W., Suite 700 Washington, D.C. 20036 202-296-5860 Main Number 202-223-0776 Fax 1-800-676-7353 www.ced.org A Statement by the Research and Policy Committee of the Committee for Economic Development Reducing Risks From Global Imbalances A Statement by the Research and Policy Committee of the Committee for Economic Development Reducing Risks from Global Imbalances Includes bibliographic references ISBN: 0-87186-185-2 First printing in bound-book form: 2007 Printed in the United States of America COMMITTEE FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 2000 L Street, N.W., Suite 700 Washington, D.C., 20036 202-296-5860 www.ced.org Contents Purpose of Th is Statement. xi Executive Summary . 1 I. Introduction. 3 II. “International Imbalances” and Th eir Recent Rapid Growth. 5 What Are “International Imbalances?” . 5 Why Should We Care About International Imbalances?. 5 Recent Trends in International Imbalances . 6 Th e U.S. Current Account . 6 Current Accounts Abroad . 8 Th e U.S. Capital Account. 8 Th e U.S. Net International Investment Position (NIIP). 10 U.S. Liabilities, International Portfolios, and International Reserves . 13 III. Th e Sources of Large International Imbalances . 15 Th e International “Mismatch” Between Desired Saving and Investment . 15 Th e Decline in U.S. Saving. 15 Th e Emergence of Saving-Investment Gaps Abroad . 16 Th e Strong Demand for Dollar Assets . 18 Globalization and Portfolio Diversifi cation . 18 Th e Dollar as International Money and the Principal Reserve Currency . 18 Th e U.S. Economy as a Magnet for Foreign Capital . 19 Relatively Rapid U.S. Economic Growth . 21 Th e Recent Rise in Energy Prices . 21 Export-Promotion Policies and Exchange Rate Intervention . 22 IV. Risks Created by Continued Large Imbalances . 25 Even Sustainable Imbalances May Produce Serious Problems . 25 Protectionism. 25 Intergenerational Equity: Borrowing from the Future. 27 iii Large Imbalances Are Unsustainable in the Long Term. 27 Adjustment and the Reduction of Imbalances. 28 Th e Idealized Adjustment Mechanism. 28 Impediments to Smooth Adjustment. 29 Th e Costs of Disorderly Adjustment . 31 V. Facilitating Adjustment: CED’s Policy Recommendations. 33 Th e General Policy Framework: Th ree Principles. 33 All Economies Should Contribute to Adjustment . 33 Changes in Both Total Spending and Relative Prices Are Required . 34 A Multilateral Cooperative Approach Is More Likely to Be Successful. 34 Policies of the United States. 34 First, What Not to Do: Protectionism. 35 Increase National Saving . 35 Depreciation of the Dollar . 37 Policies in Other Countries . 37 Europe. 38 Japan . 38 China. 39 Petroleum Exporters . 40 Other Surplus Countries . 41 Other Measures to Reduce Risk . 42 Multilateral Consultations and a More Proactive IMF . 42 VI. Conclusion. 45 Memoranda of Comment, Reservation or Dissent. 46 Endnotes. 47 iv Figures Figure 1. Current Account Balances of Selected Countries and Regions. 5 Figure 2. U.S. Balances on Current Account, Trade, Income, and Unilateral . 7 Figure 3. Major Net Exporters and Importers of Capital in 2006 . 9 Figure 4. Current Account Balances of Selected Countries and Regions, 1992-2006 . ..
Load more

Recommended publications
  • The Use and Counterfeiting of United States Currency Abroad, Part 2
    The Use and Counterfeiting of United States Currency Abroad, Part 2 The second report to the Congress by the Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Advanced Counterfeit Deterrence Steering Committee, pursuant to Section 807 of PL 104-132 March 2003 Contents Preface........................................................................................................... iii Executive Summary...................................................................................... v Introduction....................................................................................................................v Findings Regarding Currency Abroad...........................................................................v The Introduction of the 1996-Series New Currency Design (NCD) and the Upcoming 2003-Series Design............................................................................................ vi Findings Regarding Counterfeiting............................................................................. vii Innovations to Combat Counterfeiting....................................................................... viii Recommendations........................................................................................................ ix 1 Introduction.............................................................................................. 1 1.1 Design of the Study .............................................................................................1 1.2 International Demand for the U.S. Dollar ...........................................................3
    [Show full text]
  • The Cost-Benefit Analysis on International Reserve Currency Status: History from Historical and Theoretical Perspectives
    The Cost-benefit Analysis on International Reserve Currency Status: History from historical and theoretical perspectives Abstract: International reserve currency (IRC) is the highest form of currency internationalization. Based on general cost-benefit analysis on IRC, this paper explains the condition and influence to become a reserve currency from the perspective of the correlation with trade balance, the capacity of external financing and the autonomy of monetary policy respectively. In the final, we come to the conclusion that the cost and benefit of the IRCs are closely related to the currency’s international status. Classification exists in the structure of the international reserve currency system, which are center and sub-center. The core of currency internationalization is a natural selection process promoted by market forces. We also realize that whoever overtakes shall have complete knowledge of and sufficient patience in the currency internationalization Key Words: International reserve currency, cost-benefit, trade balance, external financing, autonomy of monetary policy —1— Chapter One: The General Cost-benefit Analysis on IRC Section One: Basic Concept and the composition of IRC I. Basic Concept In a narrow sense, IRC refers to the currency used for the means of international payment. In a boarder sense, it equals to the international currency. Generally, currency internationalization is regarded as the evolvement of currency function from trade valuation and settlement currency, investment and financing currency to reserve currency. Therefore, IRC is considered as the highest form of currency internationalization and the appearance of IRC greatly reduced the cost of economic transactions in the world. There only exists one currency in the ideal international currency system (ICS), however, it is just an ideal assumption (Wang Huaqing, 2010).
    [Show full text]
  • The Future of the United States Dollar: Weaponizing the Us Financial System
    THE FUTURE OF THE UNITED STATES DOLLAR: WEAPONIZING THE US FINANCIAL SYSTEM THE FUTURE OF THE UNITED STATES DOLLAR: Weaponizing the US Financial System Michael B. Greenwald 1 ATLANTIC COUNCIL The GeoEconomics center works at the nexus of economics, finance, and foreign policy with the goal of helping shape a better global economic future. The Center is organized around three pillars - Future of Capitalism, Future of Money, and the Economic Statecraft Initiative. THE FUTURE OF THE UNITED STATES DOLLAR: Weaponizing the US Financial System Michael B. Greenwald ISBN-13: 978-1-61977-135-2 Cover image: “Image of president on American dollar bill” by Skyler Ewing, Pexels https://www.pexels.com/photo/ image-of-president-on-american-dollar-bill-4597810/. This report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual Independence. The au- thors are solely responsible for its analysis and recommendations. The Atlantic Council and its donors do not determine, nor do they necessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this report’s conclusions. **Disclaimer: Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the Air University, the United States Air Force, the Department of Defense, or any other US government agency. December 2020 THE FUTURE OF THE UNITED STATES DOLLAR: WEAPONIZING THE US FINANCIAL SYSTEM Table of Contents Part I: What COVID-19 Means For the United States’ Economic and Financial Statecraft 1 Part II: International
    [Show full text]
  • US Dollar Funding: an International Perspective
    Committee on the Global Financial System CGFS Papers No 65 US dollar funding: an international perspective Report prepared by a Working Group chaired by Sally Davies (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) and Christopher Kent (Reserve Bank of Australia) June 2020 JEL Classification: F31, F33, G15, G21, G23, G28 This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2020. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISBN 978-92-9259-394-0 (online) Preface The US dollar plays a key role in the international monetary and financial system. Its function as the foremost funding currency is reinforced by its use as a vehicle currency for foreign exchange transactions, invoicing currency for global trade and reserve currency for reserve managers. This widespread use of the US dollar gives rise to a complex and geographically dispersed network of funding relationships. These interconnections generate significant benefits, in terms of lower costs for the international flow of capital and the distribution of risk, but also give rise to vulnerabilities in terms of the transmission and amplification of shocks emanating from the United States or elsewhere, across the globe. The Committee on the Global Financial System (CGFS) mandated a Working Group co-chaired by Sally Davies (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) and Christopher Kent (Reserve Bank of Australia) to take stock of the structure and evolution the US dollar funding market since the global financial crisis (GFC) and to assess its resilience. The group also identified implications for policy with a focus on non-US entities both inside and outside the United States.
    [Show full text]
  • BIS Quarterly Review September 2015 International Banking and Financial Market Developments
    BIS Quarterly Review September 2015 International banking and financial market developments BIS Quarterly Review Monetary and Economic Department Editorial Committee: Claudio Borio Benjamin Cohen Dietrich Domanski Hyun Song Shin Philip Turner General queries concerning this commentary should be addressed to Benjamin Cohen (tel +41 61 280 8421, e-mail: [email protected]), queries concerning specific parts to the authors, whose details appear at the head of each section, and queries concerning the statistics to Philip Wooldridge (tel +41 61 280 8006, e-mail: [email protected]). This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1509.htm). © Bank for International Settlements 2015. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1683-0121 (print) ISSN 1683-013X (online) BIS Quarterly Review September 2015 International banking and financial market developments EME vulnerabilities take centre stage ........................................................................................... 1 Markets roiled as China jolts investors ................................................................................ 1 Strong dollar, commodity plunge add to EME weakness ............................................ 4 Diverging monetary policies continue to drive markets .............................................. 8 Bond yields stuck at low levels ............................................................................................... 9 Box 1: Volatility
    [Show full text]
  • Sustainability, Finance, and a Proposal from China
    IASS WORKING PAPER Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) Potsdam, December 2013 Sustainability, Finance, and a Proposal from China Prof. Dr. Carlo C. Jaeger, Dr. Armin Haas, and Prof. Dr. Klaus Töpfer Sustainability, Finance, and a Proposal from China Abstract Carlo C. Jaeger (Beijing Normal University, *and Global Climate Forum), Armin Haas (IASS), and Klaus Töpfer (IASS) December, 2013, third print 1 One of the most interesting contributions to the debate about the global financial crisis is a brief note by 1 In this third print, we Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of China, published by the Bank of International Settlements corrected for some typos, added some (Zhou, 2009). It represents one of the very few attempts to place the present financial crisis within a long- caption details and made term historical perspective. It outlines a long-term strategic vision for the creation of an international reserve minor additions. currency that is decoupled from individual nations, and is anchored to a stable benchmark. Zhou built on the scheme for global financial governance conceived by Keynes in the 1940s, which included a mechanism for keeping macro-economic imbalances in check, and a substantial link to commodity markets. In this paper, we highlight that striving for global financial governance is a paradigmatic example of a deeper underlying challenge. We sketch the intellectual landscape within which Keynes and Zhou conceived their proposals, discuss both approaches, and give an overview of special drawing rights (SDRs), which play a key role in Zhou’s concept. Moreover, we discuss three issues related to rethinking the global financial system: the role of speculation; the debate between the various schools of currency and banking; and the question of whether safe assets actually exist.
    [Show full text]
  • Essays in International Finance
    Essays in International Finance by Rosen Z. Valchev Department of Economics Duke University Date: Approved: A. Craig Burnside, Supervisor Cosmin Ilut Nir Jaimovich Philipp Sadowski Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Economics in the Graduate School of Duke University 2015 Abstract Essays in International Finance by Rosen Z. Valchev Department of Economics Duke University Date: Approved: A. Craig Burnside, Supervisor Cosmin Ilut Nir Jaimovich Philipp Sadowski An abstract of a dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Economics in the Graduate School of Duke University 2015 Copyright c 2015 by Rosen Z. Valchev All rights reserved except the rights granted by the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial Licence Abstract This dissertation addresses three key issues in international finance and economics: the uncovered interest rate parity puzzle in exchange rates, the home bias puzzle in portfolio allocations, and the surprising lack of correlation between terms of trade shocks and output in small open economies. The first chapter shows that the much-studied Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) puzzle, the observation that exchange rates do not adjust sufficiently to offset interest rate differentials, is more complicated than commonly understood. I show that the puzzle changes nature with the horizon. I confirm existing short-run evidence that high interest rate currencies depreciate less than predicted by the interest rate differential. But, building on Engel(2012), at longer horizons (4 to 7 years) I find a reverse puzzle: high interest rate currencies depreciate too much.
    [Show full text]
  • International Economics, 7Th Edition
    INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, 7TH EDITION References and Suggestions for Further Reading Chapter 1 Apple Inc. (2008) United States Securities and Exchange Commission, Form 10-Q, for the quarter ended 28 June 2008. Available at http://www.secinfo.com/d14D5a.t4XXa.htm or http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/ 320193/000119312508156421/d10q.htm (accessed 12 August 2008). Linden, G., Kraemer, K., and Dedrick, J. (2008) “Who Captures Value in a Global Innovation System? The Case Apple’s iPod,” Personal Computing Industry Center, University of California, Irvine. European Commission, Taxation and Customs Union, Databases, TARIC home page (2008). Available at http://ec. europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds/tarhome_en.htm (accessed 12 August 2008). Fisher, K., (2008) “‘iPod Tax’ smacked down in Canada,” Arts Tecnica. Available at http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/ post/20080113-ipod-tax-smacked-down-in-canada.html (accessed 12 August 2008). Chapter 2 The classical economists whose writings are presented in this chapter are as follows: Mill, J.S. (1848) Principles of Political Economy. Reprinted Ashley edn, London: Longman, Green, 1921, book 3, ch. 18. Ricardo, D. (1817) Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. Reprinted London: J.M. Dent, 1911. Smith, A. (1776) An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Reprinted Modern Library edn, New York: Random House, 1937. For commentary on the context in which these authors wrote, as well as controversies over the pedigree of the ideas presented, see: Allen, W.R. (1965) International Trade Theory: Hume to Ohlin, New York: Random House. Chipman, J. (1965) “A Survey of the Theory of International Trade, Part I: The Classical Theory,” Econometrica 33: 477–519.
    [Show full text]
  • China's Engagement with an Evolving International Monetary System: A
    CHINA’S ENGAGEMENT WITH AN EVOLVING INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM A PAYMENTS PERSPECTIVE SPECIAL REPORT CHINA’S ENGAGEMENT WITH AN EVOLVING INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM A PAYMENTS PERSPECTIVE SPECIAL REPORT Thomas A. Bernes, Paul Jenkins, Perry Mehrling and Daniel H. Neilson Copyright © 2014 by the Centre for International Governance Innovation and the Institute for New Economic Thinking The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Centre for International Governance Innovation or its Operating Board of Directors or International Board of Governors. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution — Non-commercial — No Derivatives License. To view this license, visit (www.creativecommons.org/ licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/). For re-use or distribution, please include this copyright notice. 67 Erb Street West 300 Park Avenue South, 5th floor Waterloo, Ontario N2L 6C2 New York, NY 10010 Canada USA tel +1 519 885 2444 fax + 1 519 885 5450 tel +1 212 444 9612 www.cigionline.org www.ineteconomics.org TABLE OF CONTENTS iv About the Authors 1 Executive Summary 3 Introduction 4 The Evolving IMS and China 4 The Hierarchy of International Money 5 Eurodollar Market as a Payments System 5 The Spectrum of Hybridity: Public and Private Money 6 Liquidity versus Solvency 6 Managing Money 7 The RMB 7 Steps Going Forward 9 Payments and Risk Consequences of China’s Growth Model 9 Payment Flows — International and Domestic 10 The PBoC’s Risk Exposures 12 The Political Economy of Reform 12 Sustaining Economic Growth: A Prerequisite of Reform 14 The Importance of Political Will 15 Building Strong, Accountable Institutions 17 Conclusion 17 Acknowledgements 18 Annex: The Relative Price of Onshore and Offshore RMB 19 Works Cited 21 Acronyms 24 About CIGI 24 About INET 24 CIGI Masthead CHINA’S ENGAGEMENT WITH AN EVOLVING INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM: A PAYMENTS PERSPECTIVE ABOUT THE AUTHORS Thomas A.
    [Show full text]
  • MONEY AFFAIRS Is a Bi-Yearly Publication of the Centre for Latin Ameri- O Can Monetary Studies (CEMLA), Durango N 54, Mexico City, D
    CEMLA ASSEMBLY Associated Central Banks (vox et votum) and Collaborating Mem- bers (vox). GOVERNING BOARD, 2001-2003 President: Banco de México □ Members: Banco Central de la Re- pública Argentina □ Banco Cen- tral do Brasil □ Banco de la Repú- blica (Colombia) □ Banco Central de la República Dominicana □ Central Bank of Trinidad and To- bago □ Banco Central de Vene- zuela. EXTERNAL AUDITING Banco de México EXECUTIVE PERSONNEL Director General: Kenneth Coates □ Deputy Director General: Car- los-Alberto R. Queiroz □ Interna- tional Relations Director: Juan-Ma- nuel Rodríguez Sierra □ Studies Di- rector: Flavia Rodríguez Torres □ Training Director: Jimena Carretero Gordon. Administration Director: Carlos Pinedo Rodríguez. MONEY AFFAIRS is a bi-yearly publication of the Centre for Latin Ameri- o can Monetary Studies (CEMLA), Durango n 54, Mexico City, D. F., 06700. ISSN-0187-7615. MONEY AFFAIRS is regularly listed in the International Current Aware- ness Service: Economics. Selected material is indexed in the Interna- tional Bibliography of Economics. MONEY AFFAIRS VOLUME XV, NUMBER 2, JULY-DECEMBER 2002 Ronald I. McKinnon The East Asian exchange rate dilemma and the 119 world dollar standard Paul Gilbert Lise Pichette 151 Towards new money measures Tarsila Segalla Afanasieff Priscilla Maria Villa Lhacer Márcio I. Nakane The determinants of bank interest spread in Bra- 183 zil Juan Carlos Castañeda Competing monies in Guatemala: what should we 209 expect? The opinions expressed by contributing authors are not necessarily those of the Centre for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA). Ronald I. McKinnon The East Asian exchange rate dilemma and the world dollar standard In the realm of economics, “globalization” refers to the growing interdependence among countries—the cross border flows of goods, services, capital, and technical know how.
    [Show full text]
  • Renminbi Internationalisation and China's Financial Development
    Robert McCauley [email protected] Renminbi internationalisation and China’s financial development1 For now, effective capital controls allow the Chinese authorities to retain regulated deposit and lending rates, quantitative credit guidance and bond market rationing. Relaxation of the capital controls would put these policies at risk. Reserve requirements can be extended to bank inflows from the offshore market, but only at a price. JEL classification: E4, E5, F3, G1, O16, P2. A currency is internationalised when market participants – residents and non-residents alike – conveniently use it to to trade, to invest, to borrow and to invoice in it outside the currency’s home country (“offshore”). The Chinese renminbi has just begun the process of becoming an international currency. Economists have long considered the international use of a currency as a market outcome that is subject to inertia as a result of network externalities (“I use it because others use it”). Against this, Eichengreen and Flandreau (2010) find that it took the dollar just 15 years to overtake sterling in official reserves after the Federal Reserve Act promoted the US dollar’s challenge to sterling in global trade and finance. Frankel (2011) argues that a “tiny elite” promoted the dollar at the Federal Reserve’s founding and that German and Japanese industrialists resisted international use of the Deutsche mark and yen in the 1970s and 1980s.2 However one interprets the dollar’s ascent, there is no precedent for the managed availability of the renminbi offshore. In the late 1950s, US officials were taken unawares by the spontaneous rise of London’s eurodollar market as UK banks sought to avoid sterling exchange controls, US banks sought to avoid US regulation and central banks sought to invest at higher yields (Schenk (1998), McCauley (2005)).
    [Show full text]
  • International Seigniorage
    ERASMUS UNIVERSITY ROTTERDAM ERASMUS SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS MSc Economics & Business Master Specialisation Financial Economics International Seigniorage The US Dollar and the American Trade Deficit Author: J. Louwerse Student number: 374669 Thesis supervisor: Dr. J.J.G. Lemmen Finish date: May, 2017 PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I made this thesis to obtain the Master of Science degree in Economics and Business Economics, with a specialization in Financial Economics, from the Erasmus University Rotterdam. The research and writing took place between January 2016 and May 2017. Despite several setbacks, it has been a rewarding process. The results are both unique and important. They were very informative to me, I hope they are to others too. The subject is the trade deficit of the United States. This might seem like a peculiar topic for a thesis on financial economics. However, as will be explained, the cause of the American trade deficit is thoroughly financial in nature. Monetary theory, portfolio choice, exchange rate risk, the required return on investment and the trade in financial assets cover the vast majority of the thesis. Only a small portion is dedicated to the actual trade deficit itself, which is an inevitable result of the financial processes involved. I would like to thank my supervisor, dr. Lemmen, for his fast and valuable feedback. Jeroen Louwerse NON-PLAGIARISM STATEMENT By submitting this thesis the author declares to have written this thesis completely by himself/herself, and not to have used sources or resources other than the ones mentioned. All sources used, quotes and citations that were literally taken from publications, or that were in close accordance with the meaning of those publications, are indicated as such.
    [Show full text]