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Security Amidst Dissolution ٢٠١٨ SECURITY AMIDST DISSOLUTION ٢٠١٨ GaôGΩ G’CMªô The Phenomenon of Violence اﻷمن في , ⪩f , aÉO… in the Lebanese Society , HóQ Qa©â , HÉMƒ• ∞jRƒL , GChgôjæ≠ QÉ“hGC ABOU CHACRA خضم اﻻنحﻼل , JÉS°«ƒHƒdƒS¢ ,HÉfƒS¢ ÊÓ©°ûH KôjÉ Hiba A New Demographic Reality OGhhO MªóG¿ LÉLƒ Rasha AL-ATRASH , ,gÉT°º ,cªÉ∫ MÑ«Ö The Challenges of the Youth QR¥ GdôGY» ÉÆ GdóH Russel BERMAN ظاهرة العنف في المجتمع اللبناني , ,Qhcõ HÉS°º , q Y∏» Clovisse BOUEIZ in Lebanon S°æƒGOS°µ» S°∏ƒΩ ¬«∏ÁQ واقع ديمغرافي جديد , πµjÉe , ,S°©ó H«Î Sara BREICH Security Amidst Dissolution ó Gdù°« S°ƒHƒf«æÉ CHAOUL q QV°ƒG¿ , GEj∏«æÉ Melhem , ّالتحديات التي تواجه الشباب في لبنان Gdû°©ÉQ T°ëÉOI ‘ƒ«°ùdG Malte GAIER Ceremony in Honor of Poet dÉe , Ÿ«É , e©àü°º∂ , اﻷمن في خضم اﻻنحﻼل Gdü°ÉF≠ RjÉO , T°∏Î ` T°ƒdô GBf«É Amine GEMAYEL Elia Abou Madi , ّ Shafeek GHABRA YÉcƒΩ U°ØÒ U°ÈG The Dynamics of Judicial أمسية تكريميّـة للشاعر المهجري , QfÉ , GCf£ƒG¿ , LƒQê Rabih HABER YуO ,eôhG¿ ó«ÛG óÑY hM«ó Independence , إيـليّـا أبو ماضي Y«ó Yƒ¿ YÑ«ó Marlene HAIDAR LÉ¿ , S°Ée» , S°Éeí Martin HUTH CEDRE Conference , ديناميّـات استقﻼليّـة القضاء ZÉ Gd©«£á Y«ù°≈ ZÉdÖ , S°ªÒ , Mæ≈ Jean-Pierre KATRIB , مؤتمر سادر: السياق الجيوسياسي GdµæóQ… »Lƒ¡b Elie KEYROUZ Do Christians Have a Future in ¢óªfi ódÉN , QjÉV , وتداعياته على الجبهة الداخليّـة eÉjÓ c«∏ƒ Nadim KOTEICH the Middle East? ∫LƒRj∞ , e«û°É , هل للمسيحيـين مستقبل في eôbù¢ S°ªÒ , eóQhS¢ ,H«Î …Îe WÉQ¥ Ayman MHANNA Considering a Viable Economic , ّ Makram RABAH الشرق اﻷوسط؟ , e櫪æá Mù°ø , eæÉU°ô… GCfƒGQ , Iq eù°ô GCf£ƒG¿ Future for Syria Mona RAHME مستقبل سوريا اﻻقتصادي , fÉOQ ,S°Ée» eƒS°Éa«É¿ Mù°Ú S°«ó Lebanese Consociational gÉT°º Gdæƒjô… fƒaƒJæ» Oraib AL-RANTAWI ZÉH» , e«ù°º , a«â Fuad SINIORA Democracy in the Consideration , الصيغة اللبنانيّـة في حساب المستقبل Gd«ë«≈ óªfi , Gd¡ÉT°ª» hGK≥ of the Future of Syria and Iraq السوري والعراقي MAISON DU FUTUR MAISON DU FUTUR Horizons 2018 SECURITY AMIDST DISSOLUTION Le Sérail - Bikfaya This book was published with the support of FIRST NATIONAL BANK S.A.L. Printed in Beirut (LEBANON) by: ISBN: 978-9953-0-4871-0 Chemaly & Chemaly © Maison du Futur, 2018 12 Foreword, 123 The Dynamics President Amine Gemayel of Judicial Independence Undue Influence 15 The Phenomenon on the Judiciary – and How to of Violence Protect Judges Against It in the Lebanese Society Comparative Regional Concepts and Practices and International Perspective 25 A New Demographic 147 CEDRE Conference Reality: Geopolitical Context and Its Implication The motives and Impacts on the Domestic Front of Ethno-Sectarian Reshuffle in Syria Opportunities and Realization Potentials 35 The Challenges of the Youth in Lebanon: 169 Do Christians Have From Crisis to opportunity a Future in the Middle East? 57 Security Amidst Dissolution 207 Considering a The Challenges of Assuring Viable Economic Future the Continuity of Security for Syria Arrangements in the Middle East Amidst the Reality of the 217 Lebanese Dissolution of the Regional Consociational Order and the Fragmentation Process It Is Witnessing Democracy in the Consideration of the Future of Syria and Iraq 115 Ceremony in Honor of Poet Elia Abou Madi CONTENT 11 FOREWORD VERY YEAR since its re-launch in E 2015, the Maison du Futur publishes a comprehensive annual activity book that de- tails its main activities and achievements and outlines its priorities for the following year. “Horizons 2018” examines the prevailing landscape in Lebanon and the Arab world with focus on the dramatic incidents that have taken a heavy toll on the Middle East– game-changing wars and conflicts that re- drew maps and borders, dismantled nations and threatened entities, in addition to the waves of human displacement that are the largest in modern history. The year 2018 was a strenuous year marked by regional and international events that can be infallibly described as seismic. Those events not only brought major up- heavals to politics, finance the society and the economy but also had an impact on the cultural, educational, ideological, religious and demographic dimensions. The Maison du Futur watchdogged these changes and served as a platform for ideas and a living lab that brought together leading decision-makers, opinion leaders, academi- cians, activists and experts from different walk of life to analyze and forecast the im- pact of these changes, present helpful sugges- tions for finding a way out, and forge a new path forward. Our ultimate goal is to learn lessons, put forward recommendations that translate the aspirations of the populations of the region and point the political trajectory toward the very essence of democracy: The duty to re- spect and protect human dignity. 12 As you can see, we boast an eventful year filled with plenty of high- lights: Seminars, round tables, workshops, forums and political and secu- rity conferences, as well as a series of political papers on various topics with the participation of leading Lebanese, Arab and foreign experts. We have traveled far in pursuit of answers to questions related to poli- tics and security. The highlight of our activities in this sphere was the an- nual conference held under the theme “Security amidst Dissolution: The Challenges of Assuring the Continuity of Security Arrangements in the Middle East Amidst the Reality of the Dissolution of the Regional Order and the Fragmentation Process it is Witnessing”. We held two seminars, the first under the theme “Do Christians have a Future in the Middle East” and the second under the theme “Lebanese Model in the Consideration of the Future of Syria and Iraq”. Social issues were tackled in two seminars themed “The Phenomenon of Violence in Lebanese society – An Approach to Concepts and Prac- tices” and “The Challenges of the Youth in Lebanon: From Crisis to Op- portunity”. Economic topics were dealt with in two conferences themed “CEDRE Conference: Geopolitical Context and its Implication on the Domestic Front: Opportunities and Realization Potentials” and “Considering a Viable Economic Future for Syria: The Role of Local, Regional, and Global Stakeholders”. A seminar was held on the Dynamics of Judicial Independence. The cultural highlight of this year was an evening that paid tribute to al-Mahjar poet and one of the founders of the Pen League in New York, Elia Abu Madi. There is still a lot to be done. We continuously aspire to be a free and open research and discussion platform, building on the past and forecast- ing the future. In 2019, we will continue our broad activities and efforts which will culminate in the annual conference on energy (water, oil and gas), a topic that constitutes the focal point of the region’s economic and social growth and stability, alongside good governance – the main gateway to development and stability. I want to thank the Maison du Futur’s team and partners. They have been there with us every step of the way. I am deeply grateful to Konrad- Adenauer-Stiftung, Wilfried Martens Center, Al Quds Center and the Lebanese University. The Maison du Futur always welcomes your views, cooperation and sup- port. No matter the challenges of our era, we have a duty to serve the public interest, make meaningful progress and achieve peace… Most im- portantly we have a duty to render justice and preserve human dignity. Amine Gemayel 13 14 AGENDA PHENOMENON the OF VIOLENCE IN THE LEBANESE OPENING REMARKS : Maison du Futur Foundation: SOCIETY Joseph Khoury, University Professor and Board member at CONCEPTS AND PRACTICES MdF. MAISON DU FUTUR IN Lebanese University: COOPERATION WITH THE FACULTY Marleine Haidar, Dean of the OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Faculty of Social Sciences; Mona OF THE LEBANESE UNIVERSITY, Rahme, director of the Faculty of BRANCH II, Social Sciences, Branch II. [FRIDAY JANUARY 12th, 2018] Violence aspects and manifestations: – Definition of the terminology. – Violence phenomena: difficulty to reach an abstract definition, AISON DU FUTUR, in cooperation a look into patterns of M with the Faculty of Social Sciences of violence. the Lebanese University Branch II, organized a Moderator: Houweida Slaibi, seminar entitled, “The Phenomenon of Vio- University Professor, Faculty of lence in the Lebanese Society, Concepts and Social Sciences, Branch II. Practices”. The seminar was held on the prem- – Melhem Chaoul, Professor ises of the faculty, and four main issues were dis- at the Faculty of Social Sciences. cussed – The aspects and manifestations of DISCUSSION violence – Violence in the media, between social Violence in the media be- responsibility and dysfunction in the structure of tween social responsibility the media industry – The role of legislations in and disruption in the protecting women from violence – Psychological media structure violence against women. The seminar was mod- – Clovis Boueiz, PhD media erated by Professor Houweida Slaibi from the student, Lebanese University Lebanese University, with the participation of DISCUSSION His Excellency President Amine Gemayel, Dean Role of legislations in of the Faculty of Social Sciences at the Lebanese protecting women from University, Dr. Mona Rahme, the director of the violence. faculty, Dr. Hani Safi, as well as Melhem – Elie Kairouz, Member of the Chaoul, professor at the Faculty of Social Sci- Lebanese Parliament. ences, Clovis Boueiz, PhD student at the Fac- DISCUSSION ulty of Media of the Lebanese University, Elie Hiba Abou Chacra, Social Worker, Dar al-Amal. Kairouz, member of Parliament, Hiba Abou Chacra, social worker at ‘Dar al-Amal’, and Sara – Sara Breich, Psychologist, Dar al-Amal. Breich, psychologist at ‘Dar al-Amal’. The sem- DISCUSSION 15 HORIZONS 2018 inar was held with the participation of several professors and students from the University.
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