Flash Drought Lessons Learned from the 2017 Drought Across the U.S

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Flash Drought Lessons Learned from the 2017 Drought Across the U.S FLASH DROUGHT LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE 2017 DROUGHT ACROSS THE U.S. NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES CONVENING CONTRIBUTING Sean Johnson AUTHORS AUTHORS North Dakota Department of Emergency Services Kelsey Jencso Doug Kluck Montana Climate Office NOAA Regional John Kimball (University of Montana) Climate Services Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group Britt Parker Dannele Peck (University of Montana) CIRES (University of USDA Northern Plains Colorado Boulder) Climate Hub Dennis Longknife Fort Belknap Indian NOAA National Integrated Mark Rath Community Drought Information South Dakota Department System of Environment and David Martin Natural Resources Bureau of Indian Affairs LEAD AUTHORS Megan Syner Norma Nickerson Michael Downey NOAA National Institute for Tourism and Montana Department Weather Service (Great Recreation Research of Natural Resources Falls, Montana) (University of Montana) and Conservation Natalie Umphlett Jeremy Sage Trevor Hadwen High Plains Regional Institute for Tourism and Agriculture and Agri- Climate Center Recreation Research (University of Montana) Food Canada Hailey Wilmer Andrew Hoell USDA Northern Plains Tanja Fransen NOAA Earth System Climate Hub NOAA National Weather Service (Glasgow, Montana) Research Laboratory Verlon Barnes Physical Sciences Division USDA Natural Resources James Rattling Leaf Conservation Service DESIGN AND LAYOUT Rattling Leaf Consulting Darren Clabo Fiona Martin Laura Edwards South Dakota School of Visualizing Science Mines and Technology South Dakota State Kathryn Bevington Climate Office (South Brian Fuchs NOAA National Integrated Dakota State University) National Drought Drought Information System Adnan Akyuz Mitigation Center North Dakota State Climate Mingzhu He Office (North Dakota State Numerical Terradynamic University) Simulation Group (University of Montana) SUGGESTED CITATION Jencso, K., B. Parker, M. Downey, T. Hadwen, A. Howell, J. Rattling Leaf, L. Edwards, and A. Akyuz, D. Kluck, D. Peck, M. Rath, M. Syner, N. Umphlett, H. Wilmer, V. Barnes, D. Clabo, B. Fuchs, M. He, S. Johnson, J. Kimball, D. Longknife, D. Martin, N. Nickerson, J. Sage and T. Fransen. 2019. Flash Drought: Lessons Learned from the 2017 Drought Across the U.S. Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System. TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������3 Introduction ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������8 Drought Evolution and Climate Summary 10 Historical Climate in the Region ������������������������������������������������������������������������� 10 Forms and Definition of Drought ������������������������������������������������������������������������ 12 Progression of the 2017 U�S� Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies Flash Drought ������������������������������������������������������������������������ 14 Attribution of the 2017 U�S� Northern Plains Drought ������������������������������������ 16 8 Evapotranspiration ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 17 10 Drought Impacts to U�S� Tourism and Recreation �������������������������������������������18 Drought of 2017: Montana 20 Montana Drought Assessment Methods ����������������������������������������������������������� 21 Montana Drought Impacts ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 22 Agriculture ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 22 Wildfire ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 24 Human Health �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 25 Montana Drought Response �������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 26 Agriculture Response �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 26 State Agencies �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 27 Drought of 2017: South Dakota 28 South Dakota Drought Assessment Methods �������������������������������������������������� 29 20 South Dakota Drought Impacts �������������������������������������������������������������������������� 29 Agriculture ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 29 Wildfire ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 30 Tourism �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 30 Water Supply and Quality ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 31 South Dakota Drought Response ����������������������������������������������������������������������� 31 Drought of 2017: North Dakota 32 North Dakota Drought Assessment Methods �������������������������������������������������� 33 North Dakota Drought Impacts ��������������������������������������������������������������������������� 34 Water Quality ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 34 Agriculture ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 34 Wildfire ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 35 North Dakota Drought Response ����������������������������������������������������������������������� 35 Agricultural Response ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 35 Wildfire Response �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 37 Drought of 2017: Tribal Nations 38 Drought Impacts to Tribal Nations ��������������������������������������������������������������������� 39 28 Agriculture and Farming ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 39 FLASH DROUGHT NIDIS 1 Water Quality ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 40 Ecosystems and Wildlife ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 40 Water supply ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 40 Cultural Resources and Cultural Lifeways �������������������������������������������������������� 41 Human Health �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 42 Wildfire ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 42 32 Tribal Nations’ Response and Next Steps ��������������������������������������������������������� 42 Drought of 2017: Canadian Prairies 44 Drought Assessment Methods ���������������������������������������������������������������������������� 45 Drought Impacts ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 45 Agriculture ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 45 Wildfire ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 47 Infrastructure ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 47 38 Tourism �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 48 Canadian Federal and Provincial Response and Services ���������������������������� 48 Federal: Livestock Tax Deferral ���������������������������������������������������������������������������� 48 Provincial Water ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 49 Provincial Wildfire �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 49 Federal Preparedness and Response Services 50 Dissemination of Regional Climate and Drought Information �������������������� 50 44 Agricultural and Forested Lands Preparedness and Response ������������������� 51 Preparedness ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 52 Response and Recovery ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 54 Planning, Preparedness, and Building Resilience ������������������������������������������ 56 Continued Evolution of Drought in 2018 ���������������������������������������������������������� 58 Lessons Learned, Gaps, and Needs 60 Observations and Monitoring ����������������������������������������������������������������������������� 60 Gaps and Needs ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 61 Monitoring ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 62 Selecting Drought Indicators and Indices �������������������������������������������������������� 63 Information on Drought Impacts ������������������������������������������������������������������������
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