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Saudi Consumer Consumer | Saudi Arabia MENA Research Sector note Saudi consumer Consumer | Saudi Arabia MENA research Solid prospects largely not priced in Jarir Overweight Target price (SAR) 188 We believe social spending packages ensure continued robust Current price (SAR) 144 consumer spending; positive revenue surprises likely Potential return 31% Bloomberg JARIR AB Jarir remains our top Saudi consumer pick as we expect the stock to Reuters 4190.SE re‐rate when margins bottom out as early as 1Q11e Almarai Overweight We also remain Overweight on Almarai and Al Othaim, remain Target price (SAR) 121 Neutral on Al Hokair, and upgrade Herfy to Overweight Current price (SAR) 95.8 Benefits of Saudi Arabia’s USD130m social spending packages should Potential return 27% trickle down the fastest to the kingdom’s consumer sector. The packages Bloomberg ALMARAI AB Reuters 2280.SE include onetime 2 month bonuses, higher minimum wages and a 15% pay increase for public sector employees. We selectively apply minor revenue Al Othaim Overweight upgrades – 1% on average for Almarai, 3% for Al Hokair, and 4% for Herfy – Target price (SAR) 118 and believe upside revenue surprises are highly likely in 2011e. Current price (SAR) 95.8 Potential return 23% We increase equity risk premiums 50 bps across our coverage to account Bloomberg AOTHAIM AB for regional turmoil and volatility, but incremental demand and cost side Reuters 4001.SE risks are negligible in our view. Almarai has underperformed the sector Herfy Overweight y‐t‐d (‐14%) on concerns related to its operations in countries in turmoil even though these operations are negligible: only c2% of revenue comes Target price (SAR) 98.3 from Bahrain and only c2% of valuation comes from IDJ (48% owned with Current price (SAR) 81.3 operations in Egypt and Jordan). Al Hokair’s Egyptian operations (50 stores) Potential return 21% Bloomberg HERFY AB saw disruptions for only a few weeks and comprise only c3% of revenue. Reuters 6002.SE Jarir remains our top pick from our Saudi consumer coverage. We expect Al Hokair Neutral the stock to re‐rate as gross margins rebound (management guidance of Target price (SAR) 44.6 100–150 bps) as early as 1Q11e. The stock was among the worst Current price (SAR) 43.8 performing MENA consumer names in 2010 with the market discounting Potential return 2% continued margin compression on concerns that in our view are overstated. Bloomberg ALHOKAIR AB We maintain our Overweight rating on Almarai but expect share price Reuters 4240.SE performance to be muted given likely weak 1Q11e results. Almarai looks Note: All prices as of 3 April 2011 attractive after the selloff, especially with no major changes to this year’s outlook in our view, but we expect 1Q11e results to be affected by the 4 April 2011 unusually cold weather in the KSA and Kuwait, which is negative for juice Hatem Alaa, CFA and laban demand, and by slight disruptions in Bahrain. Senior analyst We also remain Overweight on Al Othaim despite strong share price +202 3535 7354 performance as we expect 2011e to be another strong year with rebates hatem.alaa@hc‐si.com likely continuing and rental income maintaining momentum. Menna El Hefnawy We upgrade Herfy to Overweight from Neutral on a better revenue Analyst outlook and a more compelling relative valuation that puts it at a discount +202 3535 7360 to peers. We upgrade earnings an average of 6% on higher revenue. menna.elhefnawy@hc‐si.com We remain Neutral on Al Hokair on cost concerns. International expansions Mai Nehad are being rolled out and the venture into high‐end retailing (40% JV with Analyst Burberry) could go better than expected, but OPEX remains high (over 30% of +202 3535 7356 sales) on escalating rent. Gross margins could come under pressure due to mai.nehad@hc‐si.com EUR appreciation (c45% of purchases in GBP and EUR). Disclaimer: See page 42 Sector note Consumer | Saudi Arabia 4 April 2011 Saudi Arabia social spending packages to further boost consumer spending SAR135bn (USD37bn) spending package 15% salary increase for public sector employees (announced 23 February) Increasing number of family members covered by social security SAR40bn in additional funding for REDF SAR20bn capital increase for Saudi Credit Bank SAR15bn allocated to General Housing Authority Subsidizing lower income locals to repair homes and pay utilities Increasing grants for Saudis working abroad SAR350bn (USD93bn) spending package One‐time cash payment of 2 months’ salary to government employees (announced 18 March) Unemployment allowance of SAR2,000/month effective 26 November Minimum wage of SAR3,000/month for government employees SAR250bn to construct 500,000 homes to address housing shortage SAR16bn to Ministry of Health to expand facilities and construct new hospitals Increase in limit on REDF’s lending for home building to SAR500,000/loan from SAR300,000 Increase in limit on loans to private hospitals to SAR200m from SAR50m Creation of 60,000 new jobs under Ministry of Interior Wage increases for military personnel by upgrading each member’s pay grade 1 notch Expanding branches of the General Presidency for Scholarly Research and Ifta, including the creation of 300 new jobs Establishment of anticorruption commission within 3 months SAR200m to the Committee for the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice for more offices across the country 500 new positions at the Ministry of Commerce and Industry to ensure fair competitive practices SAR300m to support Islamic Dawa (Call & Guidance) SAR200m to support Qur’an memorization organizations Source: Reuters, Arab News, AlembicHC Share price performance of KSA consumer stocks under our coverage(1) 60% 54% 55% 50% 40% 35% 29% 30% 23% 20% 22% 16% 16% 20% 13% 13% 8% 8% 10% 1% 0% ‐2% ‐1% ‐3% ‐10% ‐5% ‐6% ‐20% ‐14% ‐20% ‐18% ‐30% ‐23% ‐24% 2010 Y‐t‐d Selloff (1 Jan –2 Mar) Recovery (from March lows) TASI Jarir Al Hokair Almarai Al Othaim Herfy Source: Bloomberg, AlembicHC Note: (1) Calculated based on prices as of 29 April 2011 2 Sector note Consumer | Saudi Arabia 4 April 2011 Saudi Arabia’s retail spending continues to grow as indicated by POS data 8.0 84 6.8 7.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 82 6.3 6.1 6.3 6.3 5.9 5.8 5.8 80 6.0 5.6 5.2 78 5.0 76 4.0 74 3.0 72 70 2.0 68 1.0 66 ‐ 64 Feb‐10 Mar‐10 Apr‐10 May‐10 Jun‐10 Jul‐10 Aug‐10 Sep‐10 Oct‐10 Nov‐10 Dec‐10 Jan‐11 Feb‐11 POS sales (SARbn) Number of POS terminals ('000) Source: SAMA, AlembicHC 3 Sector note Consumer | Saudi Arabia 4 April 2011 Jarir Marketing Overweight Margin improvement is a key catalyst Target price (SAR) 188 Jarir is set to re‐rate when gross margins rebound as early as 1Q11; Current price (SAR) 144 we raise EBITDA 3% on average on better margin outlook Potential return 31% Revenue to sustain momentum in 2011e driven by 4 new showroom Bloomberg JARIR AB openings as well as strong smartphone and tablet sales, in our view Reuters 4190.SE Mcap (SARm) 5,740 Maintain Overweight rating and TP of SAR188/share Mcap (USDm) 1,531 Number of shares (m) 40.0 Jarir is likely to re‐rate in our view as gross margins bottom out, which we Free float 43% expect to happen as early as 1Q11e (results expected in early April). The Daily volume (USDm) 1.4 stock continues to underperform other consumer names on overstated Foreign own. limit N/A margin concerns, with the current market price implying that margins will Foreign ownership N/A continue to deteriorate. The market is pricing in sustainable gross margins Note: All prices as of 3 April 2011 of c14%, down from c17% in 2010. Price performance We raise our EBITDA estimates 3% on average to reflect an improved margin outlook. We expect gross margins to improve c75 bps y‐o‐y (lower 170 than management’s guidance of 100–150 bps but higher than our previous 150 expectation of relatively flat margins) in 2011e after a drop of 240 bps in 2010 as (1) promotions (key reason for 2010’s easing margins) end for the 130 most part after the success of the smartphone market share acquisition 110 strategy (market share currently c10%), (2) focus on after sale services for J‐10 M‐10 M‐10 J‐10 S‐10 N‐10 J‐11 M‐11 a wide range of products increases, (3) new, better margin tablets are JARIR AB TASI introduced (from the likes of Samsung and HP versus only Apple previously), and (4) growth continues in software and accessories (gross margin of 25%–30%) as well as in office and school supplies (30%–40%). We expect strong revenue growth in 2011e (11% y‐o‐y) driven by new showrooms as well as strong tablet and smartphone sales. Jarir is planning to open 4 new showrooms this year (3 in the KSA and 1 Kuwait) versus only 1 in 2010. The company is still aiming for 40–45 stores across the kingdom and the GCC by 2013e from 28 currently. In terms of product categories, the company expects tablet PC sales to more than double and strong growth in smartphones to continue. We maintain our Overweight rating on Jarir Marketing and our TP of SAR188/share, which offers 31% upside to the current market price. We raise our equity risk premium 50 bps, which is offset by 3% higher EBITDA Hatem Alaa, CFA estimates on a better margin outlook. Senior analyst +202 3535 7354 Key indicators (SAR) hatem.alaa@hc‐si.com 2010a 2011e 2012e 2013e Mai Nehad Clean EPS 10.0 11.7 13.6 15.5 Analyst DPS 7.9 9.3 10.8 12.4 +202 3535 7356 Source: Company data, AlembicHC mai.nehad@hc‐si.com 4 Sector note Consumer | Saudi Arabia 4 April 2011 We expect gross margins to bottom out in 2011e 24% 20.2% 20% 19.1% 18.9% 19.0% 17.9% 18.0% 17.2% 17.4% 17.5% 17.6% 17.7% 17.8% 16.4% 16.6% 16% 14.7% 12% 8% 4% 0% 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 2009 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10
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