Dadaab Movement and Intentions Monitoring: Dadaab Complex , February, 2019 Summary Displacement Returns Freedom of movement 1 As of January 2019, a total of 209,979 mostly Somali reside in Reported country of origin: HHs with members that have returned to since first arriving in 13% of households reported that women and girls were not able Dadaab refugee complex (Dagahaley, IFO, Hagadera). With continued conflict, Dadaab: to move freely in the community and reported the same for instability and drought, causing new displacement in Somalia in addition to Of the 5% who reported having 13% reduced humanitarian funding in Dadaab, there is need to strengthen the Somalia 90% members that returned to Somalia since men and boys. knowledge of future return intentions and movement patterns of the refugee 8% YES 5% arrival, 94% said that the members Top reported barriers to free movement in the population. Since May 2017, REACH has worked with the Norwegian Refugee South 2% returned to Dadaab. 2

community for women and girls: 88 Council (NRC) on developing tools and methodologies for data collection in NO 95% 81% said that they had gone to Somalia Dadaab refugee complex. Lack of movement pass 90+82z only for a temporary return. 88% +35 In November 2018, REACH conducted a survey in Dadaab refugee complex ++a5+95+z 6 2 Fear of gender based violence 35% + with findings showing a majority of the households (39%) not willing to return Top 5 push and pull factors for displaced HHs : 88% of the HHs that reported having members who returned to Somalia said that the returnees had not registered for voluntary repatriation. Roadblocks 6% to Somalia mainly due to fear of conflict. This factsheet provides an overview Push factors from area of origin Pull factors to Dadaab of the third round of assessment conducted in February 2019 across the three Top reported reasons for returning members not registering for Top reported barriers to free movement in the Actual conflict in community 1 No conflict in Dadaab camps of Dadaab refugee complex. voluntary repatriation2 (MOE=25.30): community for men and boys:2 94 Primary data was collected through household surveys from 11 to 13 February, Fear of conflict 2 Law and order 73 Was planned as temporary return 73% Lack of movement pass +8 2019. Households were randomly sampled to fulfill a 95% confidence level Lack of education services 3 Availability of aid +20+7+7+7 94% Was not eligible for voluntary repatriation 4+4 and a 5% margin of error. A total of 381 HHs were interviewed. This level is 20% Fear of gender based violence 8% + Drought 4 Access education services guaranteed for all questions that apply to the entire surveyed population of Did not want to lose refugee or asylum seeker status 7% Restriction from armed groups 4% Lack of livelihood opportunities 5 Availability of income opportunities each camp. Findings relating to a subset of the population may have a wider Volrep process took too long 7% Roadblocks 4% margin of error. The maximum margin of error of subsets is indicated with Returned before Volrep package was available 7% ‘MOE.’ Intentions Registration and Documentation Reported areas of origin

Likelihood of return to area of origin: Top reported regions of potential44 return in Somalia: Household refugee registration in Dadaab: 46

Will not return Lower Juba 44% +21 46% +26 9+6 12

Banadir 21% + Will return if certain conditions are met 26% + All members registered 88% 10 Bay 9%

Likely to return 12% +

6 6 % Some members registered 11% Unlikey to return 10% + Certain to return 6% No member is registered 1% % of HHs that are likely or certain to return to their area HHs that received information about area of potential 88+11+1z of origin in the following timelines (MOE= 11.54): return: 38 Household members have Identity document (ID):

29+19+14 Of the 43% who In the next 6 to 12 months 38% + After 1 year 29% reported receiving Some members have ID 61% YES 43% information about area In the next 3 to 6 months 19% All members have ID 38% In the next 3months 14% NO 57% of potential return, 94% said that they trusted No member has ID 1% Main reported reasons for considering to return to Somalia for HHs that said they were certain to return or very likely 43+57z this information. 61+38+1z to return2 (MOE=11.54): 39 % of HHs with at least one member that has the following Frequency of receiving information for HHs that 2 Potential closure of the camp 39% +24 IDs:

24 reported receiving information about potential areas

Conflict in community of refuge 24% + 46 21 of return (MOE=7.69): ID Card - Alien (Issued by GoK) 98% Availability of assistance to return 24% +

Wanted to contribute in Somalia 21% Daily 46% +34 Kenyan birth certificate 17% 12

Monthly 34% +

Main reported reasons for not considering to return to 8 Proof of marriage 15% Weekly 12% + Somalia for HHs that said they will not return or unlikely to Less than monthly return2 (MOE=6.68): 8% Birth certificate of area of origin 8% 79 ID of area of origin 3% Fear of conflict 79% +31 Intending to return through Voluntary Arrival of armed groups 30 31% + Repatriation programme: Drought 30% Of the 35% who Top reported reasons for not having ID: would not sign up for 76 Main reported factors that would increase willingness to Never had ID 76% return for HHs that said return is unlikely or would return if YES 65% Voluntary repatriation, +11 2 ID not necessary 11 42% cited fear of + 11%

certain conditions are met (MOE=7.31): 84 NO 35% losing their refugee or ID confiscated 11% End of conflict in Somalia 84% +49 asylum seeker status 46

Availability of income opportunities + 49% 65+35z as the main reason. Availability of assistance to return 46%

1. UNHCR Statistics package, January 2019 2. Households could choose multiple answers

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