nineteenth world congress
2 0 2 1
Virtual 2-6 July programme
organized by:
With the support of: WELCOME MESSAGE
The 19th World Congress of the International Economic Association was to be held in Bali, Indonesia in July 2020. But these are unusual times, and the pandemic has forced us to postpone it to July 2021, and to hold it online and in abbreviated form. Nevertheless, we hope we have managed to put together an interesting program and look forward to your participation. Plenary sessions and a selection of invited sessions will be held online by Zoom between July 2-6, 2021, while other invited sessions and contributed papers will be recorded in advance and uploaded to the congress website.
The IEA’s World Congress is one of the largest gatherings of its kind and brings people from all over the world to discuss their research and policy issues of mutual concern and to address and debate the big economic and policy challenges of our time. We expect vibrant discussion as usual, and engagement with new ideas in the coming days.
The IEA relies on global cooperation for its success. We are deeply thankful to the Ministry of Finance of Indonesia and in particular to Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani Indrawati who offered to host the original Congress in Bali and have contributed significantly to the realization of the online version. We are hugely appreciative of the tireless work of the members of the program committee, whose names appear on page 2. We are also extremely grateful to Andrea Cavallo, the IEA’s manager and Congress supremo, who has played a pivotal role throughout.
The program committee has helped in the selection of papers and organization of sessions along with a range of partner organizations – we are grateful to all of them. The Congress would not have been possible without generous sponsorship. We would like to thank the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the University of Illinois at Chicago (UIC) and Bloomberg.
Every economic crisis calls for change in the economics profession and for new thinking. This was true after the global financial crisis, and it is even more true after the devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on health and livelihoods around the world. We hope the world pulls out of the pandemic quickly. Greater availability of vaccines and their distribution in poor nations will be critical for that. But even with the pandemic behind us, the economic scars on labor markets in advanced nations and the reversal in developmental gains in poor countries will remain with us. And they are likely to exert a long shadow on the future.
Economics is responding to the challenges of our time. Environmental sustainability, inequalities of gender, race, incomes, the rise of authoritarian populism, and the reform of globalization are all centrally on the agenda of the profession. New areas such as behavioral economics, political economy, and the economics of culture continue to develop alongside more traditional fields of the discipline. The IEA has always stood for a combination of relevance and rigor. And we have stood for diversity both in terms of perspectives on economic problems and the representation of participants.
The Congress is an opportunity for elevating ongoing discussions and debates within Economics onto a truly global stage.
Our aim is to represent the global economics profession in all of its dimensions. We continue to find new members keen to join in this global project and we are welcoming Colegio de Ciencias Económicas de Tamaulipas A.C. (Mexico), Economics Association of Zambia (EAZ) and Global Labor Organization (GLO) to their first World Congress as members. But we do not take our loyal existing members for granted, and we are grateful for their continuing support, recognizing that there is a role for a global federation of economics’ associations.
The next World Congress is scheduled for 2023 when we look forward to welcoming you back and Elhanan Helpman will be taking over as President.
We wish you an enjoyable and intellectually rewarding Congress.
Kaushik Basu, President
Dani Rodrik, President-Elect and Congress Chair
1 PROGRAM COMMITTEE
Dani Rodrik (Chair) (Harvard University) Anders Jensen (Harvard University) Vivi Alatas (Asakreativita) Omar Licandro (University of Nottingham) Chong-en Bai (Tsinghua University) Luis Felipe López-Calva (UNDP) Jie Bai (Harvard University) Dalia Marin (TUM School of Management, Technical University of Munich) Chatib Basri (University of Indonesia) Atif Mian (Princeton University) Haroon Bhorat (University of Cape Town) Célestin Monga (AfDB) Sam Bowles (Santa Fe Institute) Rohini Pande (Yale University) Leonardo Bursztyn (University of Chicago) Marta Reynal-Querol (ICREA- UPF, IPEG and Lorenzo Caliendo (Yale University) Barcelona GSE) Wendy Carlin (University College London) Rohini Somanathan (Delhi School of Economics) Teguh Dartanto (University of Indonesia) Stefanie Stantcheva (Harvard University) Ashwini Deshpande (Ashoka University) Chris Udry (Northwestern University) Ishac Diwan (Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris) Ercan Uygur (Turkish Economic Association Claudio Ferraz (UBC and PUC-Rio) Foundation) Augustin Fosu (ISSER, University of Ghana) Juan Vargas (Universidad del Rosario) Sergei Guriev (Sciences Po) Leonard Wantchekon (Princeton University) Rema Hanna (Harvard University) Firman Witoelar (Australian National University)
Elhanan Helpman (Harvard University) Chenggang Xu (Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business)
LOCAL ORGANIZING COMMITTEE, Ministry of finance
Hidayat Amir Ayu Sukorini (Director for Macroeconomic Policy Center) (Head of Secretariat, Fiscal Policy Agency)
2 day 1 | THURSDAY 1 - FRIDAY 2, JULY 2021 wc2021
Thu 1 21:30 to 22:00 EDT | Fri 2 08:30 to 09:00 Jakarta Opening Ceremony
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Messages from: Sri Mulyani Indrawati (Minister of Finance of Indonesia), Kaushik Basu (Cornell University) and Masatsugu Asakawa (ADB President)
Sri Mulyani Indrawati Kaushik Basu Masatsugu Asakawa
Thu 1 22:00 to 23:00 EDT | Fri 2 09:00 to 10:00 Jakarta
PANEL Panel on Asian and Global Policy Issues
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Chair: Kaushik Basu (Cornell University)
Speakers: Sri Mulyani Indrawati (Minister of Finance of Indonesia), Dani Rodrik (Harvard University) and Mari Pangestu (University of California)
Kaushik Basu Sri Mulyani Indrawati Dani Rodrik Mari Pangestu
3 day 1 | FRIDAY 2, JULY 2021 wc2021
Fri 2 00:00 to 01:00 EDT | Fri 2 11:00 to 12:00 Jakarta
Bank Indonesia Institute / IBER / Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association (APAEA) COVID-19 and Monetary Policy
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Chair: Paresh K. Narayan (Monash University)
PAPER 1 Understanding Market Reaction to COVID-19 Monetary and Fiscal Stimulus in Major ASEAN Economies
Paresh K. Narayan (APAEA, Monash Universty, Australia), Syed Aun R. Rizvi (APAEA, Lahore University of Management Sciences, Pakistan), Solikin M. Juhro (Bank of Indonesia)
PAPER 2 COVID-19, Policy Responses, and Productivity Around the Globe
Bernard Njindan Iyke (Centre for Financial Econometrics, Deakin University & APAEA), Susan Sunila Sharma (Centre for Financial Econometrics, Deakin University & APAEA), Iman Gunadi (Bank of Indonesia Institute)
PAPER 3 Covid-19 Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Responses: Evidence from Emerging Market Economies
K.P. Prabheesh (Indian Institute of Technology, Hyderabad), Cicilia Harun (Bank of Indonesia), Solikin M. Juhro (Bank of Indonesia)
PAPER 4 Fluctuations and Spillovers of Intraday Exchange Rates during COVID-19: Evidence from Selected Asian Countries
Neluka Devpura (APAEA, University of Sri Jayewardenepura, Sri Lanka), Paresh Narayan (APAEA, Monash University, Australia), Aryo Sasongko (Bank of Indonesia), Iman Gunadi (Bank of Indonesia Institute)
4 day 1 | FRIDAY 2, JULY 2021 wc2021
03:00 to 04:00 EDT | 14:00 to 15:00 Jakarta
MoF Indonesia
The Economic Impact of a Mega Sport Event: A Case Study of Asian Games 2018
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Chair: Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti (Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas)
PAPER 1 Long-Term Effect of Mega Sports Event on Host Country’s Tourism: Evidence from the Jakarta-Palembang 2018 Asian Games
Mohamad D. Revindo, Amalia A. Widyasanti, Chairina H. Siregar, Devina Anindita, Nurindah W. Hastuti, Sean Hambali and Devianto (University of Indonesia; Ministry of National Development Planning, Indonesia)
PAPER 2 Estimating Economic Impact of a Major Sports Event: A Case Study of the 18th Asian Games
Mochammad Firman Hidayat (Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas), Bertha Fania Maula (FEB-Universitas Brawijaya) and Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti (Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas)
PAPER 3 Bank Credit Development: A Study of Macro-Prudential Effect Sebastiana Viphindrartin (FEB-Universitas Jember)
PAPER 4 Social Capital Roles in Maintaining Investment Sustainability in Lumajang Regency
Silvi Asna Prestianawati (FEB-Universitas Brawijaya)
5 day 1 | FRIDAY 2, JULY 2021 wc2021
08:00 to 08:10 EDT | 19:00 to 19:10 Jakarta
Stiglitz Essay Prize award ceremony
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Graduate category
1st Prize: Nicolas Longuet Marx (Columbia University) 2nd Prize: Mumin Ahmed (University of Glasgow)
3rd Prize: Wannaphong Durongkaveroj (Australian National University)
Undergraduate category
1st Prize: Daksh Walia (Ashoka University) 2nd Prize: Pradnyee Kantak, Fergusson College (Autonomous)
08:00 to 09:00 EDT | 19:00 to 20:00 Jakarta
PLENARY
Plenary: Development and Macroeconomic Policy in a Post Neo-Liberal World
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Chair: Kaushik Basu (Cornell University)
Speaker: Joseph Stiglitz (Columbia University)
Kaushik Basu Joseph Stiglitz
6 day 1 | FRIDAY 2, JULY 2021 wc2021
08:30 to 09:30 EDT | 19:30 to 20:30 Jakarta
INVITED ACADEMIC The Rise of China: Causes and Consequences
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Chair: Dalia Marin (TUM School of Management, Munich)
PAPER 1 Institutional Foundations of China´s Growth and Slowdown
Zheng Michael Song (Chinese University of Hong Kong)
PAPER 2 The Impact of China Trade on Inequality in High-Income Countries
David Dorn (University of Zurich)
PAPER 3 Chinese Competition, Brexit and the Rise of Nationalism in Western Europe
Italo Colantone (Bocconi University)
7 day 1 | FRIDAY 2, JULY 2021 wc2021
10:00 to 11:00 EDT | 20:00 to 21:00 Jakarta
INVITED ACADEMIC Politics and Identity
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Chair: Sharun W. Mukand (Warwick University)
PAPER 1 Economic and Social Outsiders, but Political Insiders: Sweden's Populist Radical Right
Torsten Persson (IIES), E. Dal Bo, F. Finan, O. Folke, and J. Rickne
PAPER 2 On the Workings of Tribal Politics
Moses Shayo (Hebrew University of Jerusalem), Assaf Patir and Bnaya Dreyfuss
PAPER 3 The Political Economy of Ideas
Sharun W. Mukand (Warwick University), Elliott Ash and Dani Rodrik
8 day 1 | FRIDAY 2, JULY 2021 wc2021
10:00 to 11:00 EDT | 20:00 to 21:00 Jakarta
UNDP Panel
Human Development Report 2020
The Next Frontier: Human Development and the Anthropocene
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Pedro Conceição and Carolina Rivera
The 2020 Human Development Report (HDR) doubles down on the belief that people’s agency and empowerment can bring about the action we need if we are to live in balance with the planet in a fairer world. It shows that we are at an unprecedented moment in history, in which human activity has become a dominant force shaping the planet. These impacts interact with existing inequalities, threatening significant development reversals. Nothing short of a great transformation – in how we live, work and cooperate – is needed to change the path we are on. The Report explores how to jumpstart that transformation.
Though humanity has achieved incredible progress, we have taken the Earth for granted, destabilizing the very systems upon which we rely for survival. Covid-19, which almost certainly sprang to humans from animals, offers a glimpse of our future, in which the strain on our planet mirrors the strain facing societies. It took Covid-19 very little time to expose and exploit overlapping inequalities, as well as weaknesses in social, economic, and political systems, and threaten reversals in human development.
While the devastating effects of Covid-19 have taken the world’s attention, other layered crises, from climate change to rising inequalities, continue to take their toll. The challenges of planetary and societal imbalance are intertwined: they interact in a vicious circle, each making the other worse. How should we react to this new age? Do we choose to strike out on bold new paths striving to continue human development while easing planetary pressures? Or do we choose to try—and ultimately fail—to go back to business as usual and be swept into a dangerous unknown?
This Human Development Report is firmly behind the first choice, and its arguments go beyond summarizing well-known lists of what can be done to achieve it.
9 day 1 | FRIDAY 2, JULY 2021 wc2021
10:00 to 11:00 EDT | 20:00 to 21:00 Jakarta
UNDP Panel
Presentation from the Regional Bureau of Latin America and the Caribbean
Nature Based Solutions in Latin America and the Caribbean
Luis Felipe Lopez Calva
The Human Development Report 2020: Human Development and the Anthropocene, firmly argues that a great transformation is needed, in the way we live, work and cooperate, to expand human development while easing our negative impact on the planet. The road to get there requires improved incentives, changes in social norms, and nature-based solutions. This paper explores nature-based solutions, or approaches, coming from Latin America and the Caribbean, that result in healthier ecosystems for both people and planet. The objective is to understand what solutions works, how they can be scaled, and what enabling environment is needed for these solutions to arise and be sustained. How do we rethink governance models so that these solutions are potentiated and leveraged, as opposed to marginalize or disenfranchise the communities that are creating change?
11:00 to 12:00 EDT | 21:00 to 22:00 Jakarta
INVITED ACADEMIC The State and the Frontier Innovation
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Chair: David Y. Yang (Harvard University)
PAPER 1 Information is Power: Monopoly Power, Information Technology and the Rise of the Digital State
Nathan Lane (Monash University)
10 day 1 | FRIDAY 2 - Saturday 3, JULY 2021 wc2021
PAPER 2 Industrial Policies in Production Networks
Ernest Liu (Princeton University)
PAPER 3 Data-Intensive Innovation and the State: Evidence from Al Firms in China
David Y. Yang (Harvard University)
Fri 2 22:00 to 23:30 EDT | Sat 3 09:00 to 10:30 Jakarta
PLENARY
Plenary with Panel: Asia's Journey to Prosperity
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Speakers: Kaushik Basu (Cornell University), Muhamad Chatib Basri (University of Indonesia), Sri Mulyani Indrawati (Minister of Finance of Indonesia), Takehiko Nakao (Former President of ADB), and Yasuyuki Sawada (Chief Economist and Director General of ADB)
Kaushik Basu Muhamad Chatib Basri
Sri Mulyani Indrawati Takehiko Nakao Yasuyuki Sawada
11 day 1 | Saturday 3, JULY 2021 wc2021
03:00 to 04:00 EDT | 14:00 to 15:00 Jakarta
MoF Indonesia Banking and Entrepreneurship in Creating Social Equity
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Chair: Silvi Asna Prestianawat (FEB-University of Brawijaya)
PAPER 1 Eliminating Banking Intermediation System: Sharia House Ownership in Social System Implication
Asfi Manzilati (FEB-University of Brawijaya)
PAPER 2 The Effect of International Migration towards Entrepreneurship in Indonesia
Wildan Syafitri (University of Brawijaya)
PAPER 3 The Relationship among Digital Financial Literacy, Behavior of Saving and Spending and Foresight of Future Saving and Spending among Indonesian Millennials in the Digital Era
Maman Setiawan (CEDS, UNPAD), Nury Effendi (CEDS, UNPAD), Teguh Santoso (CEDS, UNPAD), Vera Intanie Dewi (CEDS, UNPAD) and Militcyano S. Sapulette (CEDS, UNPAD)
PAPER 4 Radiator Spring Phenomenon: Unintended Consequences of Toll Road Infrastructure
Martin D. Siyaranamual (CEDS, UNPAD)
12 day 2 | saturday 3, JULY 2021 wc2021
08:00 to 09:00 EDT | 19:00 to 20:00 Jakarta
PLENARY
Plenary: Market Size, Trade and Development
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Chair: Dani Rodrik (Harvard University)
Speaker: Penny Goldberg (Yale University)
Dani Rodrik Penny Goldberg
08:00 to 09:00 EDT | 19:00 to 20:00 Jakarta
INVITED ACADEMIC How did China Develop?
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Chair: Atif Mian (Princeton University)
Speakers: Chenggang Xu (Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business), Weiying Zhang (Peking University Center for Market and Network Economy), Zheng Michael Song (Chinese University of Hong Kong, Institutional Foundations of China's Growth and Slowdown) and Yuen Yuen Ang (University of Michigan)
13 day 2 | saturday 3, JULY 2021 wc2021
09:00 to 10:00 EDT | 20:00 to 21:00 Jakarta
INVITED ACADEMIC
What Should an Economist Know?
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Chair: Samuel Bowles (UNSW)
Speakers: Wendy Carlin (UCL, CEPR, Santa Fe Institute), Jean-Paul Carvalho (University of California, Irvine), Pauline Grosjean (UNSW) and Eric Maskin (Harvard University)
10:00 to 11:00 EDT | 21:00 to 22:00 Jakarta
PLENARY
Plenary: Mapping Power and Inequality: Institutions and Individuals
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Chair: Dani Rodrik (Harvard University)
Speaker: Rohini Pande (Yale University)
Dani Rodrik Rohini Pande
14 day 2 | saturday 3, JULY 2021 wc2021
12:00 to 13:00 EDT | 23:00 to 00:00 Jakarta
INVITED ACADEMIC
Great Recession, Productivity Slowdown and Business Dynamism
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Chair: Omar Licandro (University of Nottingham)
PAPER 1 What Happened to U.S. Business Dynamism?
Sina Ates (University of Chicago)
PAPER 2 Switching-Track after the Great Recession
Francesca Vinci (University of Nottingham)
PAPER 3 Market Power and Innovation in the Intangible Economy
Marteen de Ridder (University of Cambridge)
15 day 2 | saturday 3 - sunday 4, JULY 2021 wc2021
Sat 3 20:00 to 21:00 EDT | Sun 4 07:00 to 08:00 Jakarta
PANEL
Panel on Asia's Transformation
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Chair: Andrew Sheng (University of Hong Kong)
Speakers: Danny Quah (National University of Singapore), Jayati Ghosh (University of Massachusetts at Amherst, USA), Eisuke Sakakibara (President of the Institute for Indian Economic Studies) and Mari Pangestu (World Bank)
Andrew Sheng
Danny Quah Jayati Ghosh Eisuke Sakakibara Mari Pangestu
16 day 3 | sunday 4, JULY 2021 wc2021
03:00 to 04:00 EDT | 14:00 to 15:00 Jakarta
MoF Indonesia
CEDS UNPAD Session: Recent Indonesian Economic Development in Industry 4.0
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Chair: Maman Setiawan (CEDS, UNPAD)
PAPER 1 The Impact of Industry 4.0 to the Indonesian Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis
Arief Anshory Yusuf (CEDS, UNPAD)
PAPER 2 Predicting the Shift in Consumer Behaviour and Digital Industry Landscape
Nury Effendi, Maman Setiawan, Teguh Santoso and Vera Intanie Dewi (CEDS, UNPAD)
PAPER 3 Digitalisation of Financial Development and Inequality of Outcomes: Evidences on East and South Asia in 2000-2015
Berly Martawardaya (The Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF))
1712 day 3 | sunday 4, JULY 2021 wc2021
05:00 to 06:00 EDT | 16:00 to 17:00 Jakarta
Bank Indonesia Institute/IBER
Financial System Development in Emerging Countries
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Chair: Iman Gunadi (Head of Bank Indonesia Institute Research Center)
PAPER 1 Financial Integration and Financial System Development in Emerging Market and Developing Countries
Fiskara Indawan (Bank Indonesia Institute)
PAPER 2 Sovereign Green Sukuk: Environmental Risk Model Development
Aryo Sasongko and Ali Sakti (Bank Indonesia)
PAPER 3 A Macroprudential Stress Test with Simultaneous Idiosyncratic Shocks
Aditya Anta Taruna, Cicilia A. Harun, and Ramdani Ramdani (Macropudential Policy Department, Bank Indonesia)
1812 day 3 | sunday 4, JULY 2021 wc2021
08:00 to 09:00 EDT | 19:00 to 20:00 Jakarta
PANEL
Panel on Globalization
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Chair: Joseph Stiglitz (Columbia University)
Speakers: Kaushik Basu (Cornell University), Dani Rodrik (Harvard University), Jayati Gosh (University of Massachusetts at Amherst, USA) and Rohinton Medhora (CIGI)
Joseph Stiglitz
Kaushik Basu Dani Rodrik Jayati Ghosh Rohinton Medhora
19 day 3 | sunday 4, JULY 2021 wc2021
10:00 to 11:00 EDT | 21:00 to 22:00 Jakarta
INVITED ACADEMIC Re-Examining the Growth-Poverty-Inequality Nexus in Africa
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Chair: Njuguna Ndung´u (AERC Africa)
PAPER 1 Towards a Virtuous Spiral between Poverty Reduction and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
Erik Thorbecke (Cornell University) and Yusi Ouyang (Tulsa University)
PAPER 2 Alleviating Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Inclusive Business Models
Bernadette Kamgnia Dia and Alban A. Ahouré (Cellule d'Analyse des Politiques Economiques du Cires (CAPEC), Cote d’Ivoire)
PAPER 3 Poverty, Inequality and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Survey Evidence from Cameroon and Kenya
Germano Mwabu (University of Nairobi) and Francis Baye (University of Yaoude II, Cameroon)
PAPER 4 The Role of Redistribution in the Inequality-Growth-Poverty Relationship: Implications for Africa’s Development
Finn Tarp and Miguel Nino-Zarazua (University of Copenhagen and UNU)
PAPER 5 Inequality of Opportunity and the Growth-Inequality-Poverty Nexus in Africa
Christian Ebeke (International Monetary Fund)
20 day 3 | sunday 4, JULY 2021 wc2021
12:00 to 13:00 EDT | 23:00 to 00:00 Jakarta
INVITED ACADEMIC
Gender and Economics
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Chair: Leonardo Bursztyn (University of Chicago)
PAPER 1 The Old Boys' Club: Schmoozing and the Gender Gap
Zoe Cullen (Harvard Business School)
PAPER 2 Interpreting Signals in the Labor Market: Evidence from Medical Referrals
Heather Sarsons (Chicago Booth)
PAPER 3 It Takes Two: Gender Differences in Group Work
Siri Isaksson (Norwegian School of Economics)
PAPER 4 Happily Ever After: Immigration, Natives’ Marriage and Fertility
Michela Carlana (Harvard Kennedy School)
21 day 4 | MONDAY 5, JULY 2021 wc2021
03:00 to 04:00 EDT | 14:00 to 15:00 Jakarta
MoF Indonesia
Financial Development to Lessen Poverty and Income Inequality
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Chair: Tauhid Ahmad (Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF))
PAPER 1 Financial Literacy and Poverty: Transmission Mechanism
Media Wahyudi Askar (Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF))
PAPER 2 Poverty, Growth and Inequality in Decentralisation Era in Indonesia
Rusli Abdulah (IPB University)
PAPER 3 Rent Seeking and Corruption Behaviour on Regional Development of Pandeglang District
Didin S. Damanhuri (IPB University)
PAPER 4 Determinants of the Success of Redenomination of Rupiah Currency
Bambang Juanda (IPB University)
22 day 4 | MONDAY 5, JULY 2021 wc2021
08:00 to 09:00 EDT | 19:00 to 20:00 Jakarta
UIC/Bloomberg
Tobacco Economics in the Asian Region
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Chair: Frank J. Chaloupka (UIC)
PAPER 1
Tobacco or Not Tobacco: Predicting Farmers Income in Indonesia
Gumilang Aryo Sahadewo (Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia)
ABSTRACT. Recent research in several countries has demonstrated that small-holder
tobacco farming is typically not a profitable enterprise. Many farmers report losing money
in this economic endeavor, even without incorporating the value of their household labor.
Losses are typically considerably worse when household labor is considered. We take
advantage of panel data that include information about both current and former tobacco
farmers’ characteristics and economic decisions to be the first to rigorously estimate the
effects of both tobacco and non-tobacco farming on income. We find that former tobacco
farmers are typically generating profits from their nontobacco farming, while current
tobacco farmers are more typically experiencing losses. Former tobacco farmers’ income
exceeded current tobacco farmer’s even in the period in which tobacco yields and prices of
tobacco leaves were relatively high. We find a negative effect of tobacco farming on
household income.
23 day 4 | MONDAY 5, JULY 2021 wc2021
08:00 to 09:00 EDT | 19:00 to 20:00 Jakarta
UIC/Bloomberg
PAPER 2
Discrete Choice Experiment in Vietnam: Brand-Switching Behavior and Tax Policies
Anh Nguyen (DEPOCEN, Hanoi, Vietnam)
ABSTRACT. In this paper, we conduct a discrete choice experiment to study the impact of a
change in cigarette price on smokers’ cigarette brand choice in Vietnam. We estimate
brand-level demand system on stated preferences data, and then, calibrate the estimates
on actual choice data collected along the experiment. The calibrated model is used to
calculate semi-price elasticities and simulate the impact of a number of tax reform
proposals which are being considered by the Government of Vietnam. As expected, the
results suggest that cigarette brands are generally more sensitive to a change in the price
of a brand, which is located closer to them in the price distribution. Under the complete
pass-through assumption, adding a specific component to the current purely ad valorem
excise tax tends to affect the lowest-priced cigarette brands the most. The premium brands
are least effected.
PAPER 3
Quantify the Potential Tax Base of the Cigarette Industry in Pakistan
Wasim Saleem (Social Policy Development Centre, Karachi, Pakistan)
ABSTRACT. This study estimates the potential levels of output by the cigarette industry to
measure the extent of under-reporting of domestic production of cigarettes in Pakistan.
The methodology is based on quantitative analysis where two alternate approaches have
24 day 4 | MONDAY 5, JULY 2021 wc2021
08:00 to 09:00 EDT | 19:00 to 20:00 Jakarta
UIC/Bloomberg
been adopted: supply function - annual and monthly, and analysis based on financial time
series and panel data. There is evidence of considerably high level of under-reporting of
cigarette production by the firms. The magnitude of the estimate based supply function
(annual and monthly) are relatively higher than those based on financial data. The
conservative estimates based on supply function method suggest that the extent of
under-reporting in 2016-17 was in the range of 44 percent to 47 percent, while the estimates
based on financial analysis indicate the extent of under-reporting to be around 25 percent
during 2016-18.
PAPER 4
Poverty and Tobacco Use in Bangladesh and Pakistan
Maryam Mirza (University of Illinois, Chicago, US)
ABSTRACT. This study quantifies the impact of tobacco consumption on the estimate of
poverty in Pakistan and Bangladesh. Using Household Income and Expenditure Surveys
2016 (Bangladesh), Household Income and Expenditure Surveys 2018 (Pakistan), Health and
Economic Costs data collected by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics
(Pakistan), and estimated from the study titled "The Economic cost of tobacco use in
Bangladesh A Health Cost Approach", the study will calculate the impoverishing effect of
tobacco consumption. Previous research has established the link between poverty and
tobacco use. Spending on tobacco exacerbates poverty by resulting in a direct drain on
disposable income and increases the risk of morbidity and mortality leading not only to
higher healthcare expenditure, but also to reduced income for the entire household.
2025 day 4 | MONDAY 5, JULY 2021 wc2021
08:00 to 08:10 EDT | 19:00 to 19:10 Jakarta
Amartya Sen Prize Award Ceremony
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Being awarded to: Shuguang Jiang (Shandong University) and Kenneth Mahuni
08:00 to 09:00 EDT | 19:00 to 20:00 Jakarta
PLENARY
Plenary: How to Improve Presidential Elections
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Chair: Kaushik Basu (Cornell University)
Speaker: Eric Maskin (Harvard University)
Kaushik Basu Eric Maskin
26 day 4 | MONDAY 5, JULY 2021 wc2021
09:00 to 10:00 EDT | 20:00 to 21:00 Jakarta
INVITED ACADEMIC
Inequality and Structural Transformation: The Labour Market Effects of Technological Change in Emerging Economies
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Chair: Haroon Bhorat (University of Cape Town)
Opening Remarks: Sen Kunal (WIDER)
PAPER 1 The Country-Specific Task Content of Jobs: Measurement and Predictions
Simone Schotte (UNU-WIDER)
PAPER 2 Changing Occupational Structure and Skills in India: Implications for Employment and Wage Inequality
Kanika Mahajan (Ashoka University, India)
PAPER 3 The Rise of the Missing Middle in an Emerging Economy: The Case of South Africa
Amy Thornton (DRPU, University of Cape Town)
27 day 4 | MONDAY 5, JULY 2021 wc2021
09:00 to 10:00 EDT | 20:00 to 21:00 Jakarta
CONTRIBUTED SESSION
History, Gender, and Conflict
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PAPER 1 Group Violence, Ethnic Diversity and Citizen Participation: Evidence from Indonesia
Christophe Muller (Aix-Marseille University) and Marc Vothneck (European Commission)
PAPER 2 On the Agrarian Origins of Civil Conflict in Colombia
Maria Lopez-Uribe (Universidad de los Andes, LSE) and Thiemo Fetzer (University of Warwick)
PAPER 3 Women's Empowerment and Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from a Multidimensional Policy in India
Prashant Poddar (Indian Institute of Management Lucknow) and Somdeep Chatterjee (Indian Institute of Management Lucknow)
PAPER 4 The Persistent Effects of Private Versus Colonial Rule: Evidence from Java
Priya Mukherjee (University of Wisconsin-Madison) and Thiemo Fetzer (University of Warwick)
28 day 4 | MONDAY 5, JULY 2021 wc2021
10:00 to 11:00 EDT | 21:00 to 22:00 Jakarta
PANEL
The Rise of Identity Politics: Policy, Political Organization and Values
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Chair: Elhanan Helpman (Harvard University)
Speaker: Torsten Persson (IIES)
Elhanan Helpman Torsten Persson
10:00 to 11:00 EDT | 21:00 to 22:00 Jakarta
INVITED ACADEMIC
The Political Economy of State Building in Latin America
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Chair: Juan Vargas (Universidad del Rosario)
PAPER 1 Do Ghosts Exist? Clientelistic Networks and Corruption in Public Education
Leopoldo Fergusson (Universidad de los Andes)
29 day 4 | MONDAY 5, JULY 2021 wc2021
PAPER 2 Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Unintended Effects of Enfranchisement
Maria Micaela Sviatschi (Princeton University)
PAPER 3 Dictatorship, Higher Education and Social Mobility
Luis Martinez (University of Chicago)
10:45 to 12:15 EDT | 21:45 to 23:15 Jakarta
INVITED ACADEMIC
Recent Trends in International Trade and Firm Organization
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Chair: Dalia Marin (TUM School of Management, Munich)
PAPER 1 Plants in space Esteban Rossi-Hansberg (Princeton University)
PAPER 2 Global Giants and Local Stars: Multinacional Brand Amalgation Thierry Mayer (Science Po, Paris)
PAPER 3 Mis-allocation Within Firms: Internal Finance and International Trade Dalia Marin (TUM School of Management, Munich)
30 day 4 | MONDAY 5 - tuesday 6, JULY 2021 wc2021
Mon 5 21:00 to 22:00 EDT | Tue 6 08:00 to 09:00 Jakarta
INVITED ACADEMIC
Inequality, Wealth and Financing Recovery
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Chair: Ahmed Saeed (Vice President of Asian Development Bank)
Speakers: Atif Mian (Princeton University), other speakers TBC
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic had exposed fiscal and financial vulnerabilities globally. Many countries are experiencing rising public debt levels and deteriorating public debt sustainability as fiscal resources are deployed to finance the COVID-19 response. More resources will be needed to finance the recovery. Yet, the recent literature has noted that savings have been accumulating to the top percentile in the income or wealth distribution, what is referred to as the “saving glut of the rich”. This saving glut phenomenon is also observed in Asia and the Pacific. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic may also have increased saving rates and more savings may be accumulated by the wealthier segments of societies. This session is intended to deepen the understanding of this savings glut, how it relates to the inequality and accumulation of household debt, its implication on policy instruments, and suggest policy options on how to tap these resources within or across countries as a source of financing for development.
31 day 4 | MONDAY 5 - tuesday 6, JULY 2021 wc2021
Mon 5 22:00 to 23:00 EDT | Tue 6 09:00 to 10:00 Jakarta
PANEL
Panel: Translating Evidence into Action: The Delicate Dance Between Policy and Knowledge Makers
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Chair: Vivi Alatas (Asakreativita)
Speakers: Asim Khwaja (Director, Center for International Development Sumitomo-FASID Professor of International Finance and Development), Suahasil Nazara (Viceminister, Ministry of Finance) and Nadiem Makarim (Indonesian Education Minister)
Vivi Alatas
Asim Khwaja Suahasil Nazara Nadiem Makarim
32 day 5 | TUESDAY 6, JULY 2021 wc2021
03:00 to 04:00 EDT | 14:00 to 15:00 Jakarta MoF Indonesia
Evidence Based Policies in Indonesia: Behavioural Economics and Experimental Approach
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Chair: Nunung Nuryartono (IPB University)
PAPER 1 A Study on Tax Compliance in Tax Amnesty Policy
Bambang Juanda (IPB University)
PAPER 2 The Behavioural Economic Model of Household Energy Consumption in Bogor, West Java, Indonesia
Akhmad Fauzi (IPB University)
33 day 5 | TUESDAY 6, JULY 2021 wc2021
08:00 to 09:00 EDT | 19:00 to 20:00 Jakarta
PLENARY WITH PANEL
Plenary with Panel: Rethinking the Rules
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Chair: Dani Rodrik (Harvard University)
Speakers: Joseph Stiglitz (Columbia University) and Kaushik Basu (Cornell University)
Dani Rodrik
Joseph Stiglitz Kaushik Basu
34 day 5 | TUESDAY 6, JULY 2021 wc2021
08:00 to 09:00 EDT | 19:00 to 20:00 Jakarta
CONTRIBUTED SESSION
Renewable Energy and Natural Resources
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PAPER 1 Extreme Weather Events and Households’ Welfare in the Formal and Informal Sectors
Majah-Leah V. Ravago (Ateneo de Manila University), Gerald Gracius Pascua (Ateneo de Manila University), Loubill Dayne Aceron (Ateneo de Manila University), Emil Gozo (Manila Observatory), Faye Cruz (Manila Observatory) and Gemma Narisma (Manila Observatory)
PAPER 2 Macroeconomic Impacts of Fiscal Incentives for Renewable Energy: Evidence from Nigeria
Oluwasola Emmanuel Omoju (National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies (National Assembly), Abuja, Nigeria), Emily Edoisa Ikhide (National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies (National Assembly), Abuja, Nigeria), Stephen Kelechi Dimnwobi (Department of Economics, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria) and Augustina Onogwesha Ehimare (Department of Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria)
PAPER 3 Natural Resources and the Salience of Ethnic Identity
Victoire Girard (NOVAFRICA Nova SBE), Nicolas Berman (AMSE and CEPR) and Mathieu Couttenier (GATE ENS Lyon and CEPR)
35 day 5 | TUESDAY 6, JULY 2021 wc2021
09:00 to 10:00 EDT | 20:00 to 21:00 Jakarta INVITED ACADEMIC
Real Freedom For All: Values, Models, Policy, and Narrative
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Chair: Wendy Carlin (UCL, CEPR, Santa Fe Institute)
Speakers: Samuel Bowles (Santa Fe Institute), Zoe Hitzig (Harvard University) and Philippe Van Parijs (Universite Catholique de Louvain)
09:00 to 10:00 EDT | 20:00 to 21:00 Jakarta
INVITED ACADEMIC
Can Women Farmers Outperform Male Farmers? Exploring Disabling and Enabling Factors in Africa and Asia
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Bina Agarwal Talip Kilic Kanika Mahajan Chris Udry
Chair: Bina Agarwal (Global Development Institute, University of Manchester, UK)
PAPER 1 Gender Gap in Agricultural Productivity: The Role of Soil Quality in Malawi
Talip Kilic (Development Data Group, The World Bank, Washington DC)
36 day 5 | TUESDAY 6, JULY 2021 wc2021
PAPER 2 Back to the Plough: Women Managers and Farm Productivity in India
Kanika Mahajan (Ashoka University, Haryana, India)
PAPER 3 Cultivating in Groups: Farm Productivity and Women’s Group Farms in India
Bina Agarwal (University of Manchester, UK)
PAPER 4 Learning through Networks: Gender and Agricultural Technology in Ghana
Chris Udry (Northwestern University, USA)
10:00 to 11:00 EDT | 21:00 to 22:00 Jakarta
INVITED ACADEMIC
Automation and the Labor Market
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Chair: Joseph Zeira (Hebrew University)
PAPER 1 Automation and Unemployment: Help is on the Way
Hideki Nakamura (Osaka City University)
PAPER 2 Individual Consequences of Occupational Decline
Georg Graetz (Uppsala University)
37 day 5 | TUESDAY 6, JULY 2021 wc2021
PAPER 3 Growth, Unemployment, and Labor-Saving Technical Change
Gregory Casey (Williams College)
11:00 to 12:00 EDT | 22:00 to 23:00 Jakarta
INVITED ACADEMIC
Elite Capture and Corruption
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Organized by ThRed (Theoretical Research in Development Economics)
Chair: Garance Genicot (Georgetown University)
PAPER 1 The Design of Organizations and Teams: Shaping Culture and Minimizing Corruptions
Matt Jackson (Stanford University), Jon Bendor (Stanford GSB), Lukas Bolte (Stanford Economics), Nicole Immorlica (Microsoft Research)
PAPER 2 Adverse Selection in Political Economy
Nageeb Ali (Penn State), Maximilian Mihm (NYU-Abu Dhabi), Lucas Siga (NYU-Abu Dhabi) Chloe Tergiman (Penn State)
PAPER 3 Political Reservations as Term-Limits: Evidence from India
Garance Genicot (Georgetown University), Caitlin Brown (University of Manchester) and Nishtha Kochhar (Georgetown University)
38 day 5 | TUESDAY 6, JULY 2021 wc2021
EDT 12:00 to 13:00 | Jakarta 23:00 to 00:00
CONTRIBUTED SESSION
Conflict and Crime
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PAPER 1 Persuasive Propaganda during the 2015 Argentine Ballotage
Ernesto Schargrodsky (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, CAF and CONICET), Sebastian Galiani (University of Maryland and NBER) and Rafael Di Tella (Harvard Business School)
PAPER 2 Crime-Related Exposure to Violence and Social Preferences: Experimental Evidence from Bogotá
Camilo Gómez (National University of Colombia), Francesco Bogliacino (Universidad Nacional de Colombia) and Gianluca Grimalda (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)
PAPER 3 Gender, Crime and Punishment: Evidence from Women Police Stations in India
Nishith Prakash (University of Connecticut), Sofia Amaral (Ifo Institute) and Sonia Bhalotra (University of Essex)
PAPER 4 Terror and Tourism: The Economic Consequences of Media Coverage
Thiemo Fetzer (University of Warwick), Hannes Mueller (Barcelona GSE) and Tim Besley (LSE)
39 wc2021
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