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Energy Investment Outlook for the Apec Region ASIA PACIFIC ENERGY RESEARCH CENTRE ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK FOR THE APEC REGION 2003 Published by Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Inui Bldg.-Kachidoki 16F, 1-13-1 Kachidoki Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-0054 Japan Tel: (813) 5144-8551 Fax: (813) 5144-8555 Email: [email protected] (administration) ã 2003 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre APEC#203-RE-01.5 ISBN 4-931482-24-4 Printed in Japan PAGE II FOREWORD APEC economies are increasingly concerned about the adequacy and reliability of energy supplies as their needs for energy expands. Timely investment in energy production facilities and transportation infrastructure is essential to ensure that energy remains steadily available to fuel economic growth. Thus, a study of energy investment requirements, the ability of economies to meet these requirements and policies to promote required investment should be of broad interest across the APEC region. This report estimates future investment requirements for each major energy sector and every APEC economy, building upon information developed in the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 2002. It also assesses the burden of energy investment relative to economic output over time as economies develop. Further, it examines the principal factors affecting the adequacy of energy investment and suggests ways for APEC members to ensure that energy investment requirements continue to be met. This report is published by APERC as an independent study and does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the APEC Energy Working Group or individual member economies. But we hope that it will serve as a useful basis for discussion and analysis both within and among APEC member economies for the promotion of investment in the energy sector. Masaharu Fujitomi President Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre PAGE III ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Juan Ramón Mota Aguilar and Naok o Doi were the project co-leaders: the former was responsible for estimation of energy investment requirements including modelling, while the latter was responsible for analysis on issues relevant to energy investment including historical trends and financing. Yonghun Jung provided overall guidance and valuable insights on the study directions. Jeffrey Skeer greatly contributed to writing of the draft report. We would like to thank all of those who contributed to this study, which could not have been successfully completed without the hard work and inspiration of many individuals. Especially valuable advice and insights were received from a number of energy experts worldwide , including J. Phil Prince (Canadian Energy Research Institute), Aya Yamazaki (Japan Bank for International Cooperation), Fatih Birol (International Energy Agency), Neil Davis (Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy) and Gordon Kwan (HSBC Securities). We would also like to thank members of the APEC Energy Working Group (EWG), APEC Expert Group on Energy Data and Analysis (EGEDA), and APERC Advisory Board, along with a list of experts in the APEC region , including Edito S. Barcelona (The Philippines Department of Energy), Keii Cho (Institute of Energy Economics, Japan), Jesus T. Tamang (The Philippines Department of Energy), Vu Van Thai (Ministry of Industry, Viet Nam) and Zhongan Wang (China National Offshore Oil Corp.) for their stimulating comments and current information. APERC CONTRIBUTORS PROJECT CO-LEADERS Naoko Doi (Japan) Juan Ramón Mota Aguilar (Mexico) MAIN CONTRIBUTOR S: I Gusti Suarnaya Sidemen (Indonesia) Yonghun Jung (Korea) Desiderio Añora Fuerte, Jr (Philippines) Jeffrey Skeer (USA) Binh Nguyen (Viet Nam) OTHER CONTRIBUTORS: Iván Jaques (Chile) Yanjia Wang (China) Jaya Singam Rajoo (Malaysia) Gary Eng (New Zealand) Vichien Tantiwisarn (Thailand) ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT Sutemi Arikawa, Shohei Okano, Sachi Goto, Mizuho Fueta and Chie Koshino. PAGE IV C ONTENTS Foreword ....................................................................................................................................................................iii Acknowledgements.................................................................................................................................................... iv List of Figures........................................................................................................................................................... vi List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................................xi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..................................................................................................................................1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................................5 RISKS AND RETURNS AS DRIVERS OF ENERGY INVESTMENT................................................7 ECONOMIC FACTORS AFFECTING ENERGY INVESTMENT DECISIONS ..........................17 OVERVIEW OF APEC ENERGY INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS............................................23 ENERGY INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS BY INFRASTRUCTURE TYPE.............................41 ENERGY INVESTMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION............................................69 FINANCING ENERGY PROJECTS IN DEVELOPING AND TRANSITIONAL ECONOMIES..................85 THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENTS IN ENERGY INVESTMENT........................................................................................................................97 CASE STUDIES................................................................................................................................................109 China.........................................................................................................................................................111 Indonesia ..................................................................................................................................................125 Philippines ................................................................................................................................................143 Viet Nam ..................................................................................................................................................153 REFERENCES..................................................................................................................................................162 APPENDIX I ..................................................................................................................................................169 APPENDIX II....................................................................................................................................................173 PAGE V L IST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Investment by Energy Utilities as Share of Gross Domestic Product, Compared with GDP per Capita, in Selected APEC Economies, 1980-2001..........................................7 Figure 2 Reserve Margins and Installed Generating Capacity in the United States.............................9 Figure 3 Transmission Investment and Electricity Retail Sales in the United States ........................10 Figure 4 Growing Transmission Line Congestion in the United States, 1998-2003 .........................10 Figure 5 Oil Price, World GDP and Investment in Oil and Gas E&D, 1973-2001 .........................13 Figure 6 Finding Costs of Oil and Gas in the United States and the Rest of the World......................................................................................................................................................14 Figure 7 Finding Costs for Oil and Gas Around the World (Average 1998-2001) ...........................15 Figure 8 Opportunity and Risk in Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Investment.............16 Figure 9 Sensitivity Analysis of Supply Cost with Different Discount Rates ......................................19 Figure 10 Planned IPP Generating Capacity in Thailand in 1995, 1997 and 2003..............................20 Figure 11 Indices of Monthly Exchange Rates in Asian APEC Economies, 1997 -1999 ...............21 Figure 12 Primary Energy Demand by Fuel Type in APEC (Mtoe)........................................................24 Figure 13 Total Investment Requirements by Infrastructure Category, Percent..................................26 Figure 14 Total Energy Investment Requirements by Economy 2000 – 2020.....................................27 Figure 15 Total Energy Investment Requirements of China, United States and Russia Compared with Total APEC Requirements: High Case (Billion 1999 US$) ......................27 Figure 16 Shares of Energy Investment Requirements by APEC Economy Group ..........................28 Figure 17 Energy Investment Requirements as Percentage of GDP, 2000 – 2020.............................29 Figure 18 The Burden of Investing in Additions to Petroleum Refinery Capacity: Ratio of Projected Additions in 2001-2020 to Historical Additions in 1981-2000............................31 Figure 19 Burden of Investment in New Electric Generating Capacity: Ratio of Projected Investment 2000-2020 to Historical Investment 1980-2000...................................................32 Figure 20 Investment Trends for Different Types of Electric Generating Plants: Ratio of Projected Investment 2001-2020 to Historical Investment 1981-2000................................33
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