November 2016 24/2016

Ryhor Nizhnikau Finnish Institute of International Affairs

Presidential elections in : A sad end to a once promising story Moldova’s presidential elections offer no hope for change in a country run by a destructive and shortsighted elite. won the elections, but the main victor in 2016 is the oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc, who has monopolized power in Moldova.

Once the EU’s “star pupil”, Moldova Plahotniuc is formally only a of the regime’s weak and divided op- elected Igor Dodon, leader of the vice-chair of the Democratic Party ponents away from protests towards Socialist Party (PSM), as its new (DPM), which won 19 out of 101 campaigning, which substantially President on November 13. Dodon, seats in the last parliamentary eased political tensions and provided who won the second round with elections in 2014. Despite this, the government with time to stabi- 52.1% of the votes, pledged to imp- Plahotniuc practically controls a lize its hold on power. Subsequently, rove relations with , defend parliamentary majority through the DPM candidate even pulled out the Orthodox religion and traditional his informal power networks. The of the presidential race. values, and bring stability and order government is headed by DPM’s Although the main candidates to Moldova. , the unified , his business associate, ran in protest against Plahotniuc, pro-European opposition candidate, while the Speaker of the Parliament Dodon’s election will not bring and Minister of Education from 2012 is , his relative. Law change. The presidential powers are to 2015, received 47.8% of the votes. enforcement and the judiciary are very limited, while Dodon, currently However, these elections were also in Plahotniuc’s hands. The in charge of the main opposition not about the candidates, their whole system is effectively built on force, is a man of this system and geopolitical orientations, gender, massive corruption and lawlessness. reportedly has good connections traditionalist or liberal values and In this situation, the presidential with Plahotniuc. Moreover, there is pro-Russian or pro-EU policies elections were intended to serve a general deficit of ideas within the for Moldova, but against Vlad as an illustration of Plahotniuc’s opposition, while the people lack Plahotniuc and his monopoly on capacity to manipulate the political trust and hope where the possibility power. system and to become just another of change is concerned. The core Plahotniuc, a shadowy oligarch- element in his power consolidation question is what Plahotniuc will do politician with a fortune estimated scheme. In early 2016, when next. at almost a third of Moldovan GDP, President Nicolae Timofti’s term To preserve his power, Plahotniuc has fully consolidated his power in was coming to an end, the ruling needs to perform well in the par- Moldova by, inter alia, expanding coalition lacked only four votes to liamentary elections in 2018. To his influence over opposition parties elect his successor constitutionally do that, the government firstly has in the parliament. His political rise by an indirect vote in the Parliament. to continue with a combination of started as a part of the EU-supported At that time, Plahotniuc’s power stabilization and socio-economic coalition, which has governed the positions were under constant populist measures while simulating country since 2009. pressure due to massive protests reforms. A new IMF loan and the The coalition quickly descended against his rule. So while these votes resumption of EU budget funding into an acute inner struggle for poli- could easily have been purchased – a will be very helpful in this respect. tical and economic power, in which common practice in the parliament Secondly, a major re-branding Plahotniuc had emerged as the sole – the Constitutional Court unex- of the DPM is called for if a new winner by early 2016. His main rival, pectedly ruled on March 4, 2016 that political start is to materialize. 91.3% another oligarch and former Prime direct presidential elections were of the people distrust Plahotniuc and Minister , ended up in to be reintroduced. This decision his party. Yet, even if re-branded, it prison. successfully re-directed the efforts will fight for votes in a left-leaning 2

Finnish Institute of political sector, which is fully a visa-free regime on the eve of the International Affairs captured by Dodon’s PSM. Thus, elections. Now, the “pro-Russian” Kruunuvuorenkatu 4 in 2017 a major electoral reform is Socialist Party, which previously POB 400 expected to bring a mixed electoral promised to scrap the Association 00161 Helsinki system. Electing half of the future Agreement with the EU, for instance, MPs in single-seat districts is extre- will most likely win the 2018 par- Telephone mely advantageous for the DPM due liamentary elections. But whether it +358 (0)9 432 7000 to its material resources and strong will really be able to accomplish this influence on local administrations. as well as seek a rapprochement with Fax Finally, Plahotniuc’s ultimate the Kremlin is not at all certain. +358 (0)9 432 7799 goal seems to be to take over the What is certain is that the cur- PSM, which is now poised to win rent system will not change until www.f iia.f i the parliamentary elections in 2018, the West realizes that the “roving and whose corruptibility makes it a bandits” in Chisinau are no less convenient target for a merger. detrimental to Moldova’s future than There is not much that theEU can Russia. Western (even if reluctant) do to change the situation. Moldova support for the ruling elites discre- depends on external assistance dits the European idea in Moldova. from both the EU and the US, but in The EU should change its policy the past, geopolitical calculations towards Moldova and terms of en- trumped reason, and sufficient con- gagement with its destructive elites. ditionality to promote reforms was Since 2009, support for European not applied. Trying to prevent what integration in Moldova has fallen is considered to be a greater evil (a from 70% to 40%. This is a worrying “pro-Russian” government), the West result which, among other things, has been supporting the Moldovan indicates that a change in the policy ruling elites, who proclaim themsel- of the West towards Moldova is long The Finnish Institute of International Affairs is an ves to be “pro-European” and loot overdue. independent research institute that produces high-level research to support political decision-making and the state shamelessly. public debate both nationally and internationally. The US government endorsed the Filip government in early 2016, thus All manuscripts are reviewed and commented on helping Plahotniuc to maintain his by at least two other experts in the field to ensure power. Earlier, the EU chose to help the high quality of the publications. In addition, sustain the corrupt and dysfunctio- publications undergo professional language checking and editing. The responsibility for the nal coalition and get it re-elected views expressed ultimately rests with the authors. in 2014 by providing Moldova with