Nature's Most Violent Storms
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Severe Storms in the Midwest
Informational/Education Material 2006-06 Illinois State Water Survey SEVERE STORMS IN THE MIDWEST Stanley A. Changnon Kenneth E. Kunkel SEVERE STORMS IN THE MIDWEST By Stanley A. Changnon and Kenneth E. Kunkel Midwestern Regional Climate Center Illinois State Water Survey Champaign, IL Illinois State Water Survey Report I/EM 2006-06 i This report was printed on recycled and recyclable papers ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract........................................................................................................................................... v Chapter 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1 Chapter 2. Thunderstorms and Lightning ...................................................................................... 7 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 7 Causes ................................................................................................................................. 8 Temporal and Spatial Distributions .................................................................................. 12 Impacts.............................................................................................................................. 13 Lightning........................................................................................................................... 14 References ....................................................................................................................... -
Storm Environment
August 4th, 2008 Chicago Derecho Tim Halbach – NWS Chicago Ron Przybylinski – NWS St. Louis Advanced Spotter Training-March 14, 2009 Event Overview y Progressive Derecho developed in eastern Iowa/northwest Illinois and caused widespread damage and power outages across northern Illinois and Indiana y Dissipated over West Virginia y Worst damage occurred north of the apex of the bow where multiple mesovorticies developed y Well developed convective system featuring a long lived Book-End Vortex and Rear Inflow Jet y Strong winds persisted well after the leading edge of the derecho • very low RIJ? y 6 tornadoes were confirmed via storm surveys y Griffith, IN: EF2 y Bloomingdale, IL: EF1 (2 Tornadoes) y Bolingbrook, IL: EF1 y Orland Park, IL: EF0 y Boswell, IN: EF0 Storm Environment 250 MB 3pm CDT Surface Map Forecast NAM Bufr Soundings- 21z at ORD Severe Thunderstorm Watches Nested Storm Based Warning Sectorization y Used a nested storm based warning sectorization for this event y 2 Meteorologists issuing severe warnings y 1 Meteorologist issuing tornado warnings Radar Analysis of the 5 Main Rotations The 5 Rotations Mesovort #1 y Developed along the Ogle/Carroll County line y Strengthened near Mount Morris • straight-line wind damage w/no tornado y Grain bin blown down, phone tower knocked over, building leveled. y Rotation lasted for about 1 hour and traveled about 60 miles from Carroll County into northern De Kalb county The 5 Rotations Mesovort #1 The 5 Rotations Mesovort #1 The 5 Rotations Mesovort #1 y Strongest rotation near Mount Morris The 5 Rotations Mesovort #1 y 108.8 knots sampled at 5130ft Above Ground Level The 5 Rotations Mesovort #1 -Damage Pictures from Ogle County The 5 Rotations Mesovort #2 y Developed further to the south across north central De Kalb county. -
Tornadoes & Funnel Clouds Fake Tornado
NOAA’s National Weather Service Basic Concepts of Severe Storm Spotting 2009 – Rusty Kapela Milwaukee/Sullivan weather.gov/milwaukee Housekeeping Duties • How many new spotters? - if this is your first spotter class & you intend to be a spotter – please raise your hands. • A basic spotter class slide set & an advanced spotter slide set can be found on the Storm Spotter Page on the Milwaukee/Sullivan web site (handout). • Utilize search engines and You Tube to find storm videos and other material. Class Agenda • 1) Why we are here • 2) National Weather Service Structure & Role • 3) Role of Spotters • 4) Types of reports needed from spotters • 5) Thunderstorm structure • 6) Shelf clouds & rotating wall clouds • 7) You earn your “Learner’s Permit” Thunderstorm Structure Those two cloud features you were wondering about… Storm Movement Shelf Cloud Rotating Wall Cloud Rain, Hail, Downburst winds Tornadoes & Funnel Clouds Fake Tornado It’s not rotating & no damage! Let’s Get Started! Video Why are we here? Parsons Manufacturing 120-140 employees inside July 13, 2004 Roanoke, IL Storm shelters F4 Tornado – no injuries or deaths. They have trained spotters with 2-way radios Why Are We Here? National Weather Service’s role – Issue warnings & provide training Spotter’s role – Provide ground-truth reports and observations We need (more) spotters!! National Weather Service Structure & Role • Federal Government • Department of Commerce • National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration • National Weather Service 122 Field Offices, 6 Regional, 13 River Forecast Centers, Headquarters, other specialty centers Mission – issue forecasts and warnings to minimize the loss of life & property National Weather Service Forecast Office - Milwaukee/Sullivan Watch/Warning responsibility for 20 counties in southeast and south- central Wisconsin. -
Tornadoes in the Gulf Coast States
4.2 COOL SEASON SIGNIFICANT (F2-F5) TORNADOES IN THE GULF COAST STATES Jared L. Guyer and David A. Imy NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma Amanda Kis University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin Kar’retta Venable Jackson State University, Jackson, Mississippi 1. INTRODUCTION Tornadoes pose a significant severe weather 300 mb winds and geopotential heights; 500 mb winds, threat during the cool season in the Gulf Coast states. geopotential heights, temperature, and absolute Galway and Pearson (1981) found that 68% of all vorticity; 700 mb winds, geopotential heights, and December through February tornadoes in the United temperature; 850 mb winds, geopotential heights, and States occur in the Gulf Coast/Southeast states. They temperature; precipitable water, surface temperature also noted that long track tornadoes in winter outbreaks and dewpoint, and MSLP; 0-3 km AGL helicity; and accounted for a higher percentage of deaths compared lowest 180 mb Most Unstable CAPE (MUCAPE). Aside to long track spring outbreak tornadoes. While strong from direct utilization for this study, the NARR maps wind fields are often present in association with dynamic were also compiled and organized to serve as an shortwave troughs that impact the region, uncertainty analog reference for operational forecasters. regarding low-level moisture and atmospheric instability can make forecasting such events quite challenging for operational forecasters (Vescio and Thompson 1993). The purpose of this study is to help identify a set of patterns, parameters, and conditions that are commonly associated with the development of cool season tornadoes in the Gulf Coast States, with a focus on significant (F2 and greater) tornadoes. -
The Initiation and Evolution of a Mini-Bow Echo Occurring Behind a Prefrontal Squall Line
THE INITIATION AND EVOLUTION OF A MINI-BOW ECHO OCCURRING BEHIND A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE Alan E. Gerard NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office Jackson, Mississippi Corey M. Mead NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office OmahalValley, Nebraska Abstract tern, as well as shear zones and circulations along the leading edge of the convection, were observed by the Early on 13 April 1996, a mini-bow echo moved Jackson, Mississippi (KJAN) WSR-88D. through parts of south central Mississippi. This bow echo produced one report of severe weather, namely $10K in 2. Synoptic Environment wind damage near the town of Bassfield in Jefferson Davis county. The evolution of this bow echo was some During the early evening hours of 12 April 1996, syn what unusual, in that the storm developed within the optic features and parameters came together for an active southern part of the enhanced stratiform rain region of a severe weather event over the western Gulf Coast region well developed prefrontal squall line. This paper will (Fig. 2). At 0000 UTC 13 April 1996, an upper-level short examine the development of this small bow echo, begin wave trough had become negatively-tilted over north ning with the synoptic and mesoscale environments. This Texas as a 30 m s'! 500 mb wind maximum lifted out ofthe will be followed by the storm evolution as observed by the base of the trough and into the mid-Mississippi valley WSR-88D Doppler radar in Jackson, Mississippi. region. A 300 mb polar jet streak in excess of 50 m s'! was located downstream from the trough axis from eastern 1. -
Unusually Devastating Tornadoes in the United States: 1995–2016
Unusually devastating tornadoes in the United States: 1995–2016 Tyler Fricker ∗, James B. Elsner 1 Florida State University ∗ 2 Corresponding author address: Tyler Fricker, Florida State University, Department of Geography, 3 Florida State University, 113 Collegiate Loop, Tallahassee, FL 32306. 4 E-mail: [email protected] Generated using v4.3.2 of the AMS LATEX template 1 ABSTRACT 5 Previous research has identified a number of physical, socioeconomic, and 6 demographic factors related to tornado casualty rates. However, there remains 7 gaps in our understanding of community-level vulnerabilities to tornadoes. 8 Here a framework for systematically identifying the most unusually devastat- 9 ing tornadoes, defined as those where the observed number of casualties far 10 exceeds the predicted number, is provided. Results show that unusually dev- 11 astating tornadoes occur anywhere tornadoes occur in the United States, but 12 rural areas across the Southeast appear to be most frequented. Five examples 13 of unusually devastating tornadoes impacting four communities are examined 14 in more detail. In addition, results highlight that cities and towns impacted 15 by unusually devastating tornadoes have their own socioeconomic and de- 16 mographic profiles. Identifying geographic clusters of unusually devastating 17 tornadoes builds a foundation to address community-level causes of destruc- 18 tion that supports ethnographic and qualitative—in addition to quantitative— 19 studies of place-based vulnerability. 2 1. Introduction Tornadoes are one of the deadliest weather-related hazards in the United States. Wind energy and population density explain a large portion of tornado casualty rates (Ashley et al. 2014; Ashley and Strader 2016; Fricker et al. -
Killer Tornado Guide (1950-2020) for North Central and Northeast Wisconsin
KILLER TORNADO GUIDE (1950-2020) FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN Updated: 2/1/21 1 KILLER TORNADO GUIDE (1950-2020) FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BROWN MENOMINEE CALUMET OCONTO DOOR ONEIDA FOREST OUTAGAMIE FLORENCE PORTAGE KEWAUNEE SHAWANO LANGLADE VILAS LINCOLN WAUPACA MANITOWOC WAUSHARA MARATHON WINNEBAGO MARINETTE WOOD 2 TORNADO REFERENCE GUIDE – KILLER TORNADOES DATE Time Deadly Tornadoes in GRB Service Area Deaths Month Day Year (CST) Start / End Location County or Counties 2 6 25 1950 21:00 1 W Woodboro - 5 NE Rhinelander Oneida 6 9 26 1951 15:45-1608 9 SSW Amherst - 2 SW Bear Creek Portage, Waupaca 2 4 3 1956 12:50 3 S Bancroft - 2 NW Amherst Portage 2 8 19 1968 16:10 3 SW Pound - Marinette Marinette 1 8 9 1979 18:20 Rockland Beach Calumet 1 4 27 1984 14:37-15:07 Fawn Lake - Star Lake Oneida, Vilas 1 4 27 1984 15:20-15:40 1 NE Winneconne - Freedom Winnebago, Outagamie 2 6 8 1985 18:15-18:32 Park Falls - 3 SE Monico Oneida 1 8 29 1992 19:10-19:55 1 N Wautoma - 3 SE Poy Sippi Waushara 1 8 19 2011 15:45-15:56 2.9 NW - 5.2 ESE Wausaukee Marinette 2 DEATHS: June 25, 1950 The EF4 tornado touched down one mile west of Woodboro in Oneida County around 9 PM CST and traveled 13.1 miles to five miles northeast of Rhinelander. The tornado reached a maximum width of 880 yards. Two deaths were reported in Oneida County. 6 DEATHS: September 26, 1951 The EF4 tornado developed 9 miles south southwest of Amherst in Portage County around 3:45 PM CST. -
How Mobile Home Residents Understand and Respond to Tornado Warnings
JULY 2019 L I U E T A L . 521 How Mobile Home Residents Understand and Respond to Tornado Warnings BROOKE FISHER LIU Department of Communication, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, Maryland a MICHAEL EGNOTO National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, University of Maryland, Downloaded from http://journals.ametsoc.org/wcas/article-pdf/11/3/521/4879140/wcas-d-17-0080_1.pdf by guest on 04 August 2020 College Park, College Park, Maryland JUNGKYU RHYS LIM Department of Communication, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, Maryland (Manuscript received 26 July 2017, in final form 19 February 2019) ABSTRACT Mobile home residents experience higher fatality rates from tornadoes than ‘‘fixed home’’ residents. Yet, research on how mobile home residents understand and respond to tornado warnings is lacking. Such research can help meteorologists and their partners better communicate tornado risk. We conducted four surveys with residents of the southeastern United States. This region has the highest concentration of tornado fatalities and killer tornadoes, in part because of the high density of mobile homes. Findings reveal that today’s tornado warning system inadequately prepares mobile home residents to respond safely to tornadoes. The study offers recommendations for how to improve tornado communication for mobile and fixed home residents. 1. Introduction not safe. Instead, the NWS recommends that mobile home residents abandon their homes immediately if Tornadoes are one of nature’s most violent storms they have access to a sturdy shelter (NWS 2018a). (NOAA 2010). When the National Weather Service Unfortunately, mobile home residents may not have (NWS) issues a tornado warning, they recommend access to sturdy structures like a neighbor’s home, a that people go to a basement, safe room, or interior school, or a community shelter. -
Synoptic, Mesoscale and Radar Aspects of the Northeast Kansas Supercell of September 21, 1993
■© \r<J> QC 995 • U61 no.109 F c.2 OAA TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM NWS CR-109 ii SYNOPTIC, MESOSCALE AND RADAR ASPECTS OF THE NORTHEAST KANSAS SUPERCELL OF SEPTEMBER 21, 1993 Kenneth M. Labas National Weather Service Forecast Office (Chicago) Romeoville, Illinois Brian P. Walawender National Weather Service Forecast Office Topeka, Kansas October 1995 U.S DEPARTMENT OF / National Oceanic and / National Weather Commerce / Atmospheric Administration/ Service RECEIVED hdV 1 6 19S5 Director, Office of Meteorology NOAA TECHNICAL MEMORANDA National Weather Service, Central Region Subseries The National Weather Service Central Region (CR) subseries provides an informal medium for the documentation and quick dissemina tion of results not appropriate, or not yet ready, for formal publication. The series is used to report on work in progress, to describe technical procedures and practices, or to relate progress to a limited audience. These Technical Memoranda report on investigations devoted primarily to regional and local problems of interest mainly to regional personnel, and hence will not be widely distributed. Papers 1 through 15 are in the former series, ESSA Technical Memoranda, Central Region Technical Memoranda (CRTM); Papers 16 throigh 36 are in the former series, ESSA Technical Memoranda, Weather Bureau Technical Memoranda (WBTM). Beginning with Paper 37, the papers are part of the series, NOAA Technical Memoranda NWS. Papers that have a PB or COM number are available from the National Technical Information Service, U. S. Department of Commerce, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, VA 22151. Order by accession number shown in parenthesis at the end of each entry. Prices vary for all paper copies. -
Climate Disasters in Michigan Tl/Dr
CLIMATE DISASTERS IN MICHIGAN With Trump gutting FEMA and fighting with state governments, what is in store for the rest of 2020 for Michigan? TL/DR: Trump has failed to prepare us for disasters caused by climate change. What does this mean for Michigan? • In Michigan, increases in precipitation due to climate change are driving extreme flooding costing Michiganders billions of dollars. o Due to projections that the lakes surrounding Michigan will remain inches above their average level through the end of 2020, and precipitation will remain heavier than average, it is expected that water levels will continue to overwhelm Michigan infrastructure that was built for different conditions. o From 2009 through 2019, Michigan experienced 3 flood events that caused a total of $12 billion in damages and resulted in 5 deaths. o This May, historic flooding overwhelmed Midland, Michigan, . Parts of lower Michigan received 7 inches of rain . Floodwaters caused two dams to fail . 10,000 residents in Midland County were forced to evacuate . A Dow Chemical superfund site is at risk of spilling toxic chemicals, though it’s too soon to assess the damage • In addition to flooding, Michiganders face severe winter storm events due to climate change: o Severe storms have been linked to climate change, as hotter air carries more moisture, leading to more frequent and more intense storms. o The National Weather Service predicts higher than average precipitation in Michigan this summer, and U Mich scientists predict climate change will increase the intensity and area affected by lake-effect snow. o Since 2009, Michigan has experienced 9 severe storm events, causing $15.4 billion in damages and resulted in 67 deaths • In Michigan, climate change is also spurring an increase in drought conditions: o Michigan is projected to experience higher than average temperatures through the end of 2020. -
What Is the Worst That Could Happen? Reexamining the 24–25 June 1967 Tornado Outbreak Over Western Europe
APRIL 2018 A N T O N E S C U E T A L . 323 What is the Worst That Could Happen? Reexamining the 24–25 June 1967 Tornado Outbreak over Western Europe BOGDAN ANTONESCU Centre for Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom, and European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany JONATHAN G. FAIRMAN JR. AND DAVID M. SCHULTZ Centre for Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom (Manuscript received 17 July 2017, in final form 6 December 2017) ABSTRACT On 24–25 June 1967 one of the most intense European tornado outbreaks produced extensive damage (approximately 960 houses damaged or destroyed) and resulted in 232 injuries and 15 fatalities in France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. The 24–25 June 1967 tornado outbreak shows that Europe is highly vulnerable to tornadoes. To better understand the impact of European tornadoes and how this impact changed over time, the question is raised, ‘‘What would happen if an outbreak similar to the 1967 one occurred 50 years later in 2017 over France, Belgium, and the Netherlands?’’ Transposing the seven tornado tracks from the June 1967 outbreak over the modern landscape would potentially result in 24 990 buildings being impacted, 255–2580 injuries, and 17–172 fatalities. To determine possible worst-case scenarios, the tornado tracks are moved in a systematic way around their observed positions and positioned over modern maps of buildings and population. The worst-case scenario estimates are 146 222 buildings impacted, 2550–25 440 injuries, and 170–1696 fatalities. -
2. 6 Public Warning Response Following Tornadoes in New Orleans, La, and Springfield, Mo: a Sociological Analysis
2. 6 PUBLIC WARNING RESPONSE FOLLOWING TORNADOES IN NEW ORLEANS, LA, AND SPRINGFIELD, MO: A SOCIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS William R. Donner*, Havidan Rodriguez*, and Walter Diaz** *Disaster Research Center (DRC), University of Delaware, Newark, DE **Center for Applied Social Research (CISA) University of Puerto Rico-Mayagüez ABSTRACT 1 This study examines public response to tornado that a meteorological approach to public safety warnings through an application of the could be greatly augmented through the framework laid out by Mileti and colleagues incorporation of social science methods and (2000). A qualitative approach was adopted to data. For instance, paying greater attention to supplement our knowledge of public warning how cultural myths about tornado threats shape response with detailed descriptions of how risk communication could improve the individuals interpret and react to risk information. effectiveness of watches and warnings. Following tornado outbreaks, data were collected from individuals in regions surrounding 1. INTRODUCTION New Orleans, LA, and Springfield, MO, using in- depth interview guides. As each region is We possess few empirical records characterized by significant diversity, documenting how socio-cultural factors affect researchers developed a purposive sampling public response to tornado threats (Donner strategy to ensure the collection of 2006; Mitchem 2003; Balluz et al 2000; Aguirre representative data. Interviewees (n=40) were 1988; Legates and Biddle 1999, Schmidlin and asked about how they received, interpreted, and King 1998). Partly to address this problem, responded to warning information. Researchers qualitative data were collected using in-depth then used content analysis to analyze these interviews with respondents in New Orleans and data in order to evaluate and supplement Mileti's southwestern Mississippi following tornado model.