SIPRI A TECHNICAL Policy Paper RETROSPECTIVE OF THE FORMER SOUTH AFRICAN NUCLEAR WEAPON PROGRAMME ROBERT E. KELLEY October 2020 STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public. The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute. GOVERNING BOARD Ambassador Jan Eliasson, Chair (Sweden) Dr Vladimir Baranovsky (Russia) Espen Barth Eide (Norway) Jean-Marie Guéhenno (France) Dr Radha Kumar (India) Ambassador Ramtane Lamamra (Algeria) Dr Patricia Lewis (Ireland/United Kingdom) Dr Jessica Tuchman Mathews (United States) DIRECTOR Dan Smith (United Kingdom) Signalistgatan 9 SE-169 72 Solna, Sweden Telephone: + 46 8 655 9700 Email:
[email protected] Internet: www.sipri.org A Technical Retrospective of the Former South African Nuclear Weapon Programme robert e. kelley October 2020 Contents Preface v Acknowledgements vi Abbreviations vii Summary ix 1. Introduction 1 A brief history of the South African nuclear weapon programme 3 Political statement of the programme 5 The end of the programme 5 IAEA transparency visits in 1993 6 Box 1.1. The records of the International Atomic Energy Agency visits 2 to South Africa in 1993 Box 1.2. Special limitations on inspectors 8 2. The Somchem plant 9 Shaped charge development 11 Enrichment support at Somchem 13 Box 2.1. Gun-type weapons 10 3. The Vastrap nuclear test site 15 Box 3.1. A possible nuclear test in the South Atlantic 16 4.