Agriculture in 2030 – Stories of the Future the Project: Framtidsarbete, Future Agriculture, SLU Project Management: Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI)

Agriculture in 2030 – stories of the future The project: Framtidsarbete, Future Agriculture, SLU Project management: Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI)

Working group: Lars Andersson, Jan Bengtsson, Lena Ekelund Axelsson, Camilla Eriksson, Katja Fedrowitz, Klara Fischer, Hanna Friberg, Sara Hallin, Erik Hunter, Torbjörn Jansson, Pernilla Johnsson, Mikaela Patel, Lotta Rydhmer, Elin Röös, Elin Slätmo, Cecilia Sundberg, Catarina Svensson, and Erik Westholm from SLU, and Malin Mobjörk, Per Wikman Svahn, Riitta Räty, Liselotte Dahlén, Daniel Oskarsson and Maria Stenström from FOI. Project period: 2015–2016 Financier: Future Agriculture, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU)

Refer to this report as follows: Andersson, L., Bengtsson, J., Dahlén, L., Ekelund Axelsson, L., Eriksson, C., Fedrowitz, K., Fischer, K., Friberg, H., Hallin, S., Hunter, E., Jansson, T., Johnsson, P., Mobjörk, M., Oskarsson, D., Patel, M., Rydhmer, L., Räty, R., Röös, E., Slätmo, E., Stenström, M., Sundberg, C., Svensson, C., Westholm, E., Wikman Svahn, P. (2017). Agriculture in 2030 – stories of the future. Uppsala, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.

Agriculture in 2030 – stories of the future

Year of publication: 2017, Uppsala (English edition)

Publisher: SLU, Future Agriculture - djur, växter och markanvändning

Layout: Katja Fedrowitz, SLU

Illustrations: Fredrik Stendahl, www.ritaren.se

Cover photo: iStockphoto.com

Typeface: Akzidenz Grotesk & Bembo

ISBN: 978-91-576-9498-0 (electronic)

Table of contents

Technology is the solution to agriculture’s problems ��5

What will we eat for dinner? ��18

Controlled by large companies �� 30

The new rural population �� 42

Eco-labelled food or eco-smart food for everyone? �� 50

Swedish agriculture 2.0 �� 62

Self-sufficiency? ��75

Agriculture in Sweden - stories of the future

Swedish agriculture: stories of the future

This publication consists of seven result in a more sustainable development of stories that focus on different agriculture. We also hope that the discussions perspectives of the future of Swedish will identify knowledge gaps so that new research that is of significance for the future agriculture. The stories describe both of agriculture can be initiated. possibilities and threats and raise many questions. What will agriculture The seven stories of the future are the result of a project that was carried out under the and society be like in 2030? And interdisciplinary research platform Future above all, how do we want things to Agriculture at the Swedish University of be? What possibilities do we have of Agricultural Sciences, SLU. The people who influencing the way things develop? participated in this project are researchers who are linked to Future Agriculture and The purpose of these stories of the future analysts at the Swedish Defence Research is that they shall play a role in democratic Agency, FOI. processes by offering a more far-reaching perspective and stimulating discussions about The material for the project was compiled how the choices we make today will affect our at a number of workshops and seminars future. The future of agriculture is a matter in which the Future Agriculture reference of concern for everyone. We hope these group, researchers and students at SLU stories will give rise to creative discussions participated. The material consisted of within the agricultural sector, at universities, visions, desires and demands on Swedish among politicians and in society as a whole. agriculture. The participants made a list of Hopefully, the discussions will eventually anything they could think of, irrespective of lead to the drawing up of new proposals on their own personal desires for the future. The political governance, influence on consumers project also included a literature study of the and industry agreements - proposals that will visions, desires and demands that have been

1 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

described in the specialised press and political party programmes, and in policy documents The seven stories of the future are: and documents on the future produced by trade organisations and public authorities. • Technology is the solution to The stories of the future are set in 2030 but agriculture’s problems – the driving forces, possibilities and they look ahead to 2050. The setting in which consequences of technological the stories take place has been taken from developments an earlier Future Agriculture project (Öborn et al, 2011) where the following future scenarios • What will we eat for dinner? – how were constructed: An over-exploited world, we value our food A world in balance, Altered balance of power • Controlled by large companies in the world and A fragmented world. The – large companies control Swedish first step of the work was to review these agriculture in a future where there scenarios since a number of years have is basically no political control over passed since they were constructed. After environmental issues that, all the visions, desires and demands that had been compiled (almost 600) were • The new rural population – inte- analysed and categorised under 21 different gration policy and the development of rural areas in a future with huge headings, for example: Efficient land use migratory movement with preserved soil fertility in farmland, Specialisation and rationalisation with regard • Eco-labelled food or eco-smart to size, and More even power structure in food for everyone? – sustainable the foodstuffs chain. The next step was to food production and the role of investigate how these visions, desires and eco-labelling demands could be fulfilled in the different • Swedish agriculture 2.0 – agricul- future scenarios. The purpose was to find ture in Sweden is expanding and is combinations of future scenarios and visions, profitable in a hard-pressed future desires and demands that would give rise to interesting questions and ideas. These then • Self- sufficiency? formed the basis of the stories of the future – different reasons for and different degrees of self-sufficiency presented in this publication.

2 Agriculture in Sweden - stories of the future

The stories of the future are not to be read as References traditional descriptions of scenarios; instead Öborn, I., Magnusson, U., Bengtsson, J,. Vrede, K., Fahl- they aspire to be thought-provoking and beck, E., Jensen, E.S., Westin, C., Jansson, T., Hedenus, F., perhaps provocative depictions of the future. Lindholm Schulz, H., Stenström, M., Jansson, B., Rydhmer, Some of the stories depict more than one L. (2011). Fem framtidsscenarier för 2050 – förutsättningar type of future. You will probably think that för lantbruk och markanvändning. Uppsala, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet. ISBN: 978-91-576-9023-4. some parts are more feasible than others. We believe all the events/circumstances in the stories are possible but we have not included any probability calculations. Our aim has not been to predict what the future will actually be like - no one knows that! Instead we have described different developments in the future which are more or less feasible and more or less desirable. We have not attempted to include all important perspectives and issues – it would be easy to think up more stories.

• Join us in the year 2030 and see how Swedish agriculture has changed. What threats and possibilities do you see in the different stories? Some of them perhaps describe developments that you yourself would like to see happen. What can you do to help to bring about those changes? Some of the stories describe a future that you probably do not want to experience. What can you do to prevent such developments? Read, reflect and discuss. • You are very welcome to contact us at [email protected] if you want to comment on what you have read.

3 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

4 Technology is the solution to agriculture’s problems

Technology is the solution to agriculture’s problems In the future, new technological solutions countryside. The development of technology and increased use of technology will make it is in itself dependent on either the state or easier for agriculture to develop production companies investing resources and the way that is economically, ecologically and socially developments will move forward depends to sustainable. Perhaps it will be possible to a large extent on the development of society. process and make use of residual products The central issues are: what direction will the instead of them being the problem they are development of technology take, what control today? At the same time, it may be difficult will society have over that, and what will the to overview the long-term consequences of consequences be for agriculture and the rest a major technological breakthrough. There of society? is a risk that certain types of production will This story describes three different future be knocked out and people will be forced to scenarios for the development of technology abandon the land that their family has farmed in the 2030s: new technology for a for generations. There is also a risk that the sustainable future, Swedish food for export to agricultural landscape will be changed which Asia, and Swedish bio-fuel as a driving force will have consequences on both biological for technological developments. diversity and aesthetic aspects of the

5 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

6 Technology is the solution to agriculture’s problems

Scenario 1: New technology for a sustainable future

he first scenario describes a future Within the EU, there is free trade and Swedish with few conflicts in the world around. agriculture is subject to strong competition TMuch of the power in Europe is at from nearby countries. Because of that, agricul- supranational level, beyond national borders, tural production in Sweden has become niched, and there has been a clear shift towards a more competing with products that can be produced sustainable society. Ambitious goals for global in Swedish conditions. Because Sweden holds a justice, equality and the environment are well leading position when it comes to developing on their way to being realised and new tech- and using new agricultural technology, several nology has been developed which is suitable niche areas have been very successful. for both small-scale and large-scale agriculture. For environmental and climate policy reasons, The focus is on reducing environmental impact incentives are used to promote the development and making it easier to do ecological recycling of an economy with a higher degree of re-use agriculture, both on land and in water, in the and recycling. This trend has been beneficial for form of aquaculture with the cultivation of research and industry which has led to Swedish fish, shellfish or aquatic plants. Precision cul- businesses also being successful when it comes tivation is used and cultivation measures and to developing environmental and ecological production inputs are carefully adjusted to suit recycling technology for agriculture. Swedish local conditions and variations. With the help of technology is exported to other countries, for biotechnology, plants are developed that are re- example, technology for cooling manure and sistant to pests and disease and small robots are purify outgoing air in animal houses so as to used in the cultivation beds to combat weeds. minimise emissions of greenhouse gases and Animals are fed according to their individual ammonia. needs which minimises environmental impact The development of new technology is ste- and optimises the use of resources. Thanks to ered to a high degree by agreements made in breeding efforts and new technology to detect international organisations, which for Sweden’s and prevent disease in animals, the effective- part means primarily within the EU. The mar- ness of animal production and animal welfare ket’s demand for new environment-friendly have increased. Animal welfare is considered by technology is also driving developments for- society to be an important ethical matter. ward. The changes have been achieved by using

7 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

both stick and carrot. In some cases, the use Many small biotechnology companies of technology and substances that are harmful There is global agreement on the setting up to the environment or health has been forbid- of control instruments and trade rules which den which has either led to the emergence of means more companies succeed in establishing new techniques that replace the old ones, or themselves in the seed sector. One of the to production being shut down because there effects of the new regulations concerning has been no breakthrough of effective alterna- biotechnology and refining processes is that tives. In other cases, subsidies and research have they have secured the rights of farmers to encouraged the development of and a transi- take their own seed and refine it at farm tion to new techniques, for example, biological level. Moreover, many small biotechnology control of pests and diseases. Because there is a companies have entered the market by large demand for eco-smart technology, it has developing and selling niche products that are become economically worthwhile for trade and specially adapted for small markets, for example, industry to invest in research and development farmland in Norrland. within this field. The general public have great confidence that New technology has resulted in developments in technology are regulated in a sustainable agriculture responsible way. This has brought about a rapid growth of Swedish biotechnology companies Both animal and human manure are processed in the agricultural sector which has led to a to make fertilisers that are free from metals, market for products that have been adapted for pharmaceuticals and infective agents. The different types of production. One important content of nutrients is analysed carefully so reason for increased confidence is that global they are adapted for precision fertilisation. and interstate agreements about how compa- Greenhouse cultivation has become more nies must make their risk analyses public have significant through the use of waste heat from changed. There is greater scope for adapting industries and buildings. Most of the energy risk evaluation processes and taking regional that farmers use is renewable, coming from and national differences into consideration re- farm-based production of solar and wind garding how risks linked to cultural and ethical power, and bio-energy from by-products from aspects are viewed. For example, it is conside- forestry and agriculture. Fossil fuels are being red very important that the consequences of phased out since new machinery is run on new technology on health, animal welfare, the electricity and bio-fuels in different combina- environment, cultural landscape and biological tions. New technology has raised the level of diversity are evaluated. technology of agricultural companies which

8 Technology is the solution to agriculture’s problems

has in turn made them more eco-friendly and profitable. Lighter, self-driving and precision-guided machines perform many work tasks and reduce labour and fuel costs. At the same time, dependency on IT technology has increased and thereby made agriculture and society more sensitive to disruptions. New, advanced technology entails high costs when introduced but the costs decrease rapidly once the technology has become established and made an impact. Then small companies can also benefit from the new technology.

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10 Technology is the solution to agriculture’s problems

Scenario 2: The export of Swedish added values to Asia

n the second future scenario, the power ba- development of rational management systems lance has shifted from the Western world to for large animal stocks with access to the out- Icountries in East Asia whose economies have doors. New biotechnology has been extensively developed strongly. At global level, political am- used for breeding programmes and has focused bitions as regards climate and the environment on robust animals with good production and are low. Severe global warming has meant plant high resistance to disease. The reindeer industry production for food and animal feed has moved has benefited from this and become more im- towards the northerly regions of the world. The portant thanks to good export opportunities. global economy is characterised by deregulation There is berry production in Sweden’s coun- and free trade. In Europe, economic develop- tryside, both in forests and farmland. The berries ments are relatively weak and there is practically are refined locally or exported fresh for use in no common agricultural policy. Many Swedish different food products that are marketed on farmers are employed by, or subcontracted by, the basis of their health-promoting properties. Asian companies that have set up business in The growing and picking of berries is extensi- Sweden. Labour immigration to Europe has led vely automated, using small and cheap machines to an increased supply of labour for the agricul- that are made in Asia and owned by the Asian tural sector. Global competition is higher than it companies. was in the 2010s. In order to handle that and at the same time try to benefit from Asia’s interest Large biotechnology companies in Nordic food products, many Swedish agricul- The companies promote new technology tural companies have readjusted and started to through their development departments and produce products for the Asian market. Inte- the market is dominated by large international rest in Nordic added values such as purity and companies with a long-term perspective who naturalness has meant that Sweden is exporting are prepared to make investments. For example, certain foodstuffs to Asia, for example, meat, plant breeding has resulted in cultivars that are dairy products and berries. more resistant to fungi and pests and they have The large demand for animal products in, for developed technology that can register nutritio- example, Asia and the good supply of labour for nal status, disease and insect infestation on crops the agricultural sector has contributed to the so that both nutrients and disease control can

11 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

be set in at the right time. Genetically modified it. The companies are very willing to test new crops that have been developed in China and technology. Even though the larger enterprises are adapted for the Asian market are cultivated do take some form of long-term responsibili- by Asian agricultural companies in Sweden and ty via, for example, industry standards, in this then exported. These include vitamin-enriched future scenario, insufficient control of new crops and other modified products that focus technology leads to a relatively large risk of sur- primarily on an optimal nutritional content and prises that can afflict third parties. For example, are aimed at the health-conscious and growing insufficient safety awareness means the number middle and upper classes in Asia. The develop- of work-related injuries is unnecessarily high. ment of new technology focuses on the crops There is also a risk of monopolistic situations and animals that are the most profitable or that where individual companies that come up with have an obvious added value for the consumer, a revolutionary new discovery can rapidly gain for example, that the animal has been reared in a dominating position where farmers and the a clean environment. A prerequisite for this de- general public end up in a clear relationship of velopment is that agriculture is profitable so it is dependence. possible to invest in new technology. This means that the development of technology is rather unevenly distributed among different types of production and there is little interest in developing technology for unusual crops and animal species. Because no new technology that is adapted for small-scale production is developed, many small farms are knocked out of business.

Insufficient control of technology has a negative effect on third parties The large companies are driving new technology forward. Technology is being developed to suit Swedish conditions but Sweden has little control over what new technologies are introduced. Most responsibility and risk assessment has been handed over to the companies. New technology is launched onto the market when the companies deem the market is ready for

12 Technology is the solution to agriculture’s problems

Technology and ethics in animal husbandry New technology in the field of agricultu- quences of a certain type of breeding re, especially when animals are involved, selection have not been investigated is viewed in a special way since this is in advance. However, breeding ma- about the food we are to eat and how nagement can also improve animal that technology will affect other living health and well-being and technology creatures. can improve the animals’ environment. Automated feeding and milking stations Some technology can cause increased have made it possible to have free- suffering for animals, for example, if the range dairy cows indoors. Irrespective of animal must undergo a procedure or whether breeding is done with genetic be held in a restricting way. Likewise, engineering or in the traditional way, certain genetic changes to the animals’ it may result in species that are better properties, irrespective of technique, adapted to the environment and pro- reduce animal well-being if the conse- duction system.

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14 Technology is the solution to agriculture’s problems

Scenario 3: Swedish bio-fuel – driving force for technology development

he third future scenario depicts a world run on bio-fuel. Primarily, fuel from the forest where there is a global shortage of industry is used but bio-diesel is also produced Tgoods, land and water. There is still free from rape, biogas and ethanol from cereals and trade in many fields but protectionism is in- agricultural residual products. Developments in creasing, especially in the food industry. There is this part of the technology sector are a result of a low-intensity trade war going on between the joint efforts by the state and private companies. EU and certain countries outside the EU. This In other sectors, technology development in unsettled situation has meant that the import agriculture is slow because of the difficult eco- of agricultural products to Sweden has been nomic situation. The government only makes replaced by self-sufficiency as regards important limited investments in stimulating new techno- staple foods such as cereals, root vegetables and logy and instead prioritises cheap measures such legumes, and Sweden has also become more as simplifying regulations. self-sufficient when it comes to meat. The main problem has been a shortage of fuel since the Increased production of Swedish import of oil and other petroleum products has vegetables become uncertain. However, a combination of After some resistance, the need for domestic bottom-up innovation where individual farmers vegetables production has led to such produc- and small enterprises find solutions, investments tion becoming part of agricultural policy. After made by the vehicle industry, and some state aid a period of adaptation, less meat and more ve- for innovation has meant that the technological getable products are being produced. Since less and economic obstacles that have obstructed the animal feed is needed, there is enough farmland use of bio-fuel have been overcome and there is for both food and bioenergy crops. now a sufficient supply of fuel in Sweden. The The production of bio-fuel provides extra vehicle industry has made major investments in income for agriculture which compensates for adapting vehicles to new blends of fuel and most increased fuel costs. There are bio-refineries of Swedish vehicles and agricultural machinery are varying sizes which combine in different ways

15 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

the production of fuel, electricity, heat, food, for swapping seed has been started up in the animal feed and fibre for the manufacture of Nordic countries. The cooperatives have access textiles. New technology has been developed to to genetic material in the Nordic gene bank produce pure phosphorus fertiliser from sewa- which increases the diversity of varieties and the ge sludge and mineral fertiliser nitrogen using genetic variation of the crops that are grown. renewable energy. This technology is exported This means it is easier to adapt varieties to suit to other countries. different regions than it was in the 2010s. In this future scenario, developments are pushed for- Small-scale plant breeding ward by necessity and many people are prepared Because of limited global cooperation and to take greater risks. At the same time, uncerta- trade, in this future scenario, global and in- inty in the world around may lead to concern terstate agreements on intellectual property about the consequences of a major adjustment rights and plant breeding protection are no and people may instead choose to refrain from longer followed. At the same time, Sweden’s major changes in technology. poor economy means there is minimal state investment in plant breeding and development. The shortage of domestically produced seed from new varieties and the fact that it is more difficult to rely on the import of seed means that many farmers have taken the matter into their own hands. Several farmer-run cooperatives for small-scale plant breeding and a system

16 Technology is the solution to agriculture’s problems

Discussion questions • To what extent are policy instruments needed so that the development of new technology will promote a sustainable development of agriculture? • Is it possible for large international companies to steer the development of new technology towards a sustainable development of the agricultural sector? • Can the private sector develop new technology that will be suitable for forms of production that are small-scale or marginal in some other way? • What are the driving forces that make a farmer an innovator and entrepreneur? • Does it make any difference to animals or humans if animals are cared for by robots or by people? • Can technological solutions be regarded as being more or less “natural”?

17 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

What will we eat for dinner? What sort of eating habits will we have in In the first scenario, consumption is affected the future and what food will we put on our by values linked to the environment and plates? This story presents two different justice; in the second, food supplies and future scenarios where our eating habits have safety are central issues. In both cases, the changed as a result of new values. In the first farmers are key players since they are the scenario, Sweden’s economy is strong, there ones who produce food and there is close is a major breakthrough for environmental contact between farmer and consumer. and sustainability issues, there is sufficient In 2030, the year in which these two future food and thanks to an ecocycle approach, the scenarios are set, the total agricultural earth’s vital resources are being preserved. area and food production have increased In the other scenario, Sweden’s economy is in Sweden, compared with the mid-2010s. weak, population growth is rapid, people are Hunger and starvation in the world are largely more focused on simply getting food on their the result of the uneven distribution of global plates, and food safety is a major problem. resources. With a growing middle class, more In both scenarios, a large share of the food food needs to be produced, food waste must is produced in Sweden and people spend decrease and resources must be more evenly about 20 percent of their disposable income distributed. Sweden’s responsibility for the on food. Food waste has decreased at global supply of food is increasing as climate every stage. The consumption of meat has change continues since we have good access gone down radically while the consumption to water and fertile land. At the same time, the of legumes , fruit and vegetables is much area of cultivable land in southern Europe is higher than it was in the mid-2010s. In both decreasing because of climate change. scenarios, new varieties of crops are being grown in Sweden.

18 What will we eat for dinner?

Food was not valued highly at the start of the century In the 1950s, Swedes spent half of their Most waste was generated by the end disposable income on food. Around consumers. 1975, that proportion had dropped to a quarter and around 2015, the proportion In the 2010s, many Swedes ate one or was down to one eighth. more meals a day at a public institu- tion. Because the cost of food at such At the start of the 21st century, about institutions had to be kept down, the 15 percent of edible food in Sweden economic value of publicly procured ended up as waste. This was in part food was only a few percent of the total because food was relatively cheap. value of food.

19 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

20 What will we eat for dinner?

Scenario 1: It feels good to eat good food

n the first scenario, people are interested consumers want to protect and promote Swedish in the environment and justice, and from a agriculture and a small-scale food industry. In Iglobal perspective, the standard of living is their opinion, good food is food that is produced more equal than it was in 2015. Thanks to force- in Sweden. ful global environmental policy, carbon dioxide The restaurant sector has reached a voluntary emissions are decreasing and the pressure on land agreement that the country of origin is to be resources is moderate, despite climate change stated in menus in restaurants and cafés. There is and population growth. Sweden has good pre- still a difference in price between Swedish and conditions for food production compared with European raw food materials but the difference countries in southern Europe where drought is is less than it was in 2015. This is because EU a major problem. A conscious ecocycle approach regulations have become more stringent and are means agriculture has a limited need for external now approaching the level of Sweden’s rules, inputs such as phosphorus. The inputs needed for wage levels within the EU have evened out as agriculture are available on the market. The EU the union’s most recent new member states have imposes forceful governance over matters linked developed, and the cost of producing food has to the environment, climate and energy use. Fos- increased in countries around the Mediterranean sil fuels are expensive and the price of electricity sea because of climate change. is also high. In the 2030s, food is highly valued by a majo- Winter apples are at a premium rity of the population, at the same time as people In 2030, Swedes spend on average almost understand the importance of economising with twice as much of their disposable income on the earth’s resources. This development has been food compared with the 2010s. This increase is driven forward by the drawing up of a Swedish primarily because of increased interest in good food strategy that was started in 2015. According quality food. Food is important and people want to consumers, good food is food that is sustai- to enjoy eating tasty food. However extravagance nably produced with regard to the environment, is viewed as being immoral and no one wants to animal ethics and social aspects, while at the be called a gourmand. Chefs compete in cook- same time being tasty and nutritious. Global ing good, seasonal food and like to use leftovers justice is an important social aspect but many and raw food materials that may otherwise go

21 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

to waste. Food magazines and television pro- Locally produced food in schools grammes also highlight food that is made from Schools play an important role in creating leftovers and recipes that use an entire fish or a values. Primary production, the manufacturing whole vegetable. Restaurants serve small por- of food, education in nutrition and cooking tions, allowing people to take a second portion if are given a lot of space in the curriculum and necessary. At home, many people have disposed sustainable consumption is integrated with a of the huge dinner plates that were popular at number of other subjects. There is a political the beginning of the century. will that food at public institutions must be of In this future scenario, the quality of food does good quality and public procurement is used as of course vary but many consumers choose to a control instrument. Many municipalities are spend a lot of time and money on food. They proud that they serve locally produced food of search for information, make demands and buy good quality which has meant that food com- food that is of good quality. For reasons of public prises a relatively large share of the budget. As health, the VAT on items with a high content a result, municipal food policies are discussed of “empty calories”, for example, fizzy drinks, is during election campaigns and the cost of food higher than on other foodstuffs. Of course some is compared with, for example, costs for recre- people still buy cheap food during certain peri- ational facilities and public decoration. In line ods when they prioritise other things in life than with Sweden’s food strategy, EU funding is used food but the change in values that has taken pla- to strengthen an infrastructure that makes it ce in society means that the demand for cheap easier for local producers to compete in public food of poor quality is going down year by year. procurements, for example, common prepara- tion facilities for root vegetables. No red stickers Because of extensive public interest in food There is a wide range of good quality, ready-to- and good profitability, the status of farmers in eat products that are made of Swedish ingredi- society is high. Farmers are heroes! Upper se- ents. Supermarket chains do not want to be asso- condary schools with Natural Resource Mana- ciated with the cheapest foodstuffs so low-price gement programmes have many young pupils items are not advertised, and not displayed in and also older people who want to change shops. Animal rights organisations have managed career and study so they can work in agricultu- to get the large supermarket chains to stop using re. There is a demand for new vegetables from animal foodstuffs to attract shoppers. A com- people who have migrated to Sweden and mon attitude is “better to have expensive meat because of the strong market, farmers dare to try of good quality at the weekend instead of cheap to cultivate new varieties. Fruit and vegetable meat several times a week”. growing contributes to high employment and

22 What will we eat for dinner?

fish cultivation, which is an important branch of agriculture, also generates jobs. Food tourism is well-developed in rural areas and there are many farm shops, village taverns and farms with accommodation for tourists.

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24 What will we eat for dinner?

Scenario 2: Food for the day is the most important thing

n the other scenario, Swedes have little control systems in other countries say that interest in matters linked to the environme- good food is food that is produced in Sweden. Int or justice. The social welfare system, for People’s diet consists primarily of domestic pro- example, compensation in the event of illness or ducts such as potatoes, oats, bread, apples, carrots, unemployment, is not as good as it was at the cabbage, beans, milk, egg and rapeseed oil. In beginning of the century. Nevertheless, living 2030, Swedes spend on average almost twice as conditions are still better in Sweden than in much of their income on food, compared with most other countries. 2015. The increase is because of a combination There is free trade but it is hampered by the of reduced income and more expensive food. lack of common sets of regulations. The EU is weak and in many member states, agricultural Ready-to-eat food makes everyday life policy is focused on national self-sufficiency. All easier over the world, there is great competition for In Swedish towns, the standard of living is lower farmland and in large parts of the world, crops than it was at the beginning of the century. are grown wherever it is possible to do so. This Cramped housing accommodation is common means that even contaminated ground is used and there is often nowhere to store food. Socie- for cultivation and grazing. The national con- ty has made huge cut-backs in welfare, both in trol systems are often deficient and residues of Sweden and in other countries. Many people pharmaceuticals and pesticides are often found have two jobs so as to be able to afford private in imported raw food materials. Food safety is schooling for their children and someone to therefore an urgent matter for consumers. Food take care of their elderly family members. At the scandals, health risks and cheating are given a lot same time, it is difficult to find a job and many of coverage in the media and many scandals are people choose to start up their own company linked to imported foodstuffs. on a small scale. It is easy to get hold of cheap Consumers say that good food is food that labour. All in all, the lack of space, time and per- is affordable, safe to eat and nutritious. All the manent jobs leads to a greater demand for and people who neither trust producers nor the

25 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

a large supply of ready-to-eat everyday food. part of their charity work. In towns, fruit trees Entrepreneurs buy up food that is approaching and berry bushes are more common than or- its sell-by date and vegetables that are discar- namental plants in parks and there are also bee ded by the shops. Using these ingredients for hives. Schools and care facilities are expected to cooking takes time (cleaning, peeling, chopping) have their own vegetable gardens. but there is plentiful cheap labour. The food is In rural areas, it is common for people to sold ready-made at places many people pass by have a few household rabbits or hens and these on their way home from work. Some of these domestic animals are also common on hou- companies have direct contact with farmers and sing estates and in schoolyards. They provide buy up “second choice” raw food materials, for meat and egg which improves people’s diet and example, crooked carrots. There are also many this is also a way of making use of leftovers. markets where consumers can buy raw food Any surplus is used in informal barter trade or materials direct from the producers or from sold which provides a little extra income. This market stalls. Producers often collaborate as small-scale production is difficult to control regards distribution and marketing. and every now and again it causes outbreaks of disease. The regulations for food production and People are frightened by food scandals food control are adapted for small-scale produc- A fear of cheating with food and food poisoning tion which means that food safety is not quite as drives consumers to make contact with far- good as it was at the beginning of the century mers. Cow-share programs and pick-your-own but it is still better than it is for imported food. farms are common and some farmers let their Hunting, recreational fishing and berry-pick- customers take part in farm work, for example, ing provide food and extra income. This is pick the potatoes left in the ground after the encouraged by the state and tax rules have been harvester. High levels of immigration have led adapted to promote such use of natural resour- to changed demands for vegetables, fruit and ces. The great interest in “wild” food leads to cereals. Some farmers have started to grow new many conflicts with landowners and the right of crops so as to meet such demands. Many im- public access rule is put to the test. migrants start up gardening companies and food companies on a small scale, some of which grow over time. Farmers rent out allotments in places that can be reached by bus from the towns. The government buys up land for allotments which are rented out at a low cost and the Swedish church offers free allotments on their land as

26 What will we eat for dinner?

Food, power and values Both these future scenarios show that there interest in food. In the long run, political may be different reasons why people’s objectives influence people’s values and attitude to food changes. Shifts in values may therefore a national food strategy will play an be linked to a striving for justice in society, important role in shaping developments. a shortage of food and money, health risks, a desire for a healthy lifestyle or a positive

What influences our consumption? Political control can be executed change values linked to consumption through, for example, public procure- are attitudes towards cigarettes and ment, education, tax regulation, distri- furs - no one thinks it is glamorous to bution of EU aid and national, strategic smoke or wear a leopard fur anymore. A investments. Decision-makers in the shift in values is noticeable both in food food industry also affect consumption, stores and on election day. Individual depending on how they view their role persons can only have a small influence when it comes to the supply of food on the food industry and agriculture and food safety. Altered values can but as a collective, they can be of great influence both what consumers choose significance. to buy and how much waste there is at all stages of the food chain. Histori- cal changes that show it is possible to

27 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

Discussion questions • How much of one’s disposable income is it reasonable to spend on food? • In what way can school affect people's eating habits and is this a task that schools should take on? • Domestic rabbit-keeping and hens in gardens - how would that affect animal welfare and who would care?

In both future scenarios, food is valued more highly than it is today but there are different driving forces behind this change. • Does it make any difference to agriculture why food is valued more highly?

Consumers want to know where food comes from and they want to be involved. Owning a share of a cow, planting one’s own rows in a potato field, pick-your-own farms... • What demands does close contact with consumers place on farmers?

The gap between rich and poor in Sweden is increasing. • How will the poorest people be affected in these two future scenarios? What do they consume?

28 What will we eat for dinner?

Further reading • Jordbruksverket, Livsmedelsverket och Naturvårdsverket. 2013. Hur liten kan livsmedelskonsumtionens klimatpåverkan vara år 2050? Ett diskussions- underlag om vad vi äter i framtiden. http://webbutiken.jordbruksverket.se/sv/artiklar/ovr296.html • Röös, E., Patel, M., Spångberg, J., Carlsson, G., Rydhmer, L. 2015. Kött och mjölk från djur uppfödda på bete och restprodukter – ger det en hållbar kost? Uppsala, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet, Future Agriculture. ISBN: 978-91-576-9370-9 (electronic), 978-91-576-9371-6 (printed)

29 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

Controlled by large companies What will happen if property rights for for agriculture. Productive land has become natural resources are no longer restricted by a scarce resource and the purpose of legislation and other state governance, and legislation is primarily to strengthen property instead market forces have more freedom rights and open up for international trade with of action? How would the market handle agricultural land. environmental issues? What would the With the right framework conditions, consequences be for rural areas? How would companies will voluntarily choose to address consumers be affected? certain effects on the environment, in This story describes a future where the situations where poor management leads position of democratic institutions has to costs for the companies. For example, it become weaker, at the same time as global may be profitable to preserve the fertility climate change has changed preconditions of the land, to protect the company’s own water sources from contamination, and Property rights to protect one’s own supply of pollinators. Other natural resources, for example. seas Property rights are usually defined as: and global climate, are difficult to manage effectively without policy control instruments 1) The right to use an asset and their environmental status is deteriorating 2) The right to make an income from an drastically in this story of the future. asset Small and medium-sized agricultural 3) The right to permanently transfer a companies have problems coping with property right to someone else an increased need for capital which is a consequence of increased international Source: Alchian, A. A. 2008. Property Rights. In David R. Henderson. Concise competition. Farmers become middle Encyclopedia of Economics (2nd ed.). managers and the working conditions of farm Indianapolis, Library of Economics and labourers are similar to industrial workers. This Liberty. ISBN 978-0865976658. story is also based on the assumption that

30 Controlled by large companies

consumers are relatively uninterested in the environment or food. When large companies Number of agricultural compa- take over, power in the food supply chains is nies in Sweden shifted to the production side and the position The number of agricultural companies of consumers is weakened. in Sweden has steadily declined during the last thirty years. Despite this drop in number, there are still many small companies. In 2014, there were about 30,000 full-time farms.

Source: Jordbruksverkets statistikdatabas

Income from agriculture

70 Income from agriculture does not cover its costs unless aid is included. 60 Source: Jordbrukets inkomster: Statistiska 50 meddelanden, Statistiska centralbyrån, JO 45 SM 1601. 40 4 February 2016. http://bit.ly/2dQWcjH

30 Aid Net interest

SEK billions per year 20 Secondary activities Leases and rent Production of services Salaries and fees 10 Production of goods Capital consumption 0 Inputs Revenues Costs

31 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

32 Controlled by large companies

Scenario: A world dominated by large companies

t is 2030. Global climate has deteriorated so strong national and international investors have that temperate areas that used to be producti- been able to enter Sweden’s agricultural industry Ive are now affected by drought and poor har- and have replaced many of the traditional family vests. The most fertile land is now located closer farms. The structure of production has also been to the poles. The political climate has also chang- changed by this large input of venture capital, not ed. The European Union collapsed as early as in least by animal husbandry now being concentra- 2020 as a result of growing conflicts between its ted to fewer and larger units. member states. When climate change and international unrest The Land Acquisition Act pushed up food prices, the Swedish government saw opportunities to exploit Sweden’s relatively Trading with agricultural land is regu- good supply of fertile land and to expand food lated in the Swedish Code of Statutes exports. As part of this rationalisation process, 1979:230. legislation on land use was simplified in a num- ”The Land Acquisition Act is an old law ber of areas. The government made it possible for which the competitiveness inquiry has landowners to make long-term plans by simply clearly identified as an obstacle for agri- doing away with most of the old patchwork quilt cultural companies that are run as limited of rules and laws and replacing it with a liberal companies.” system whose purpose was to protect private property rights. The Land Acquisition Act was Minister of Agriculture, Bucht, in the paper abolished, as was the right or public access and Jordbruksaktuellt, 5 May 2015 most animal protection legislation. Many of these changes became possible after Agricultural and forestry companies no long- the collapse of the European Union. After being er have any special legal or tax status. They liberated from the EU, the government saw have been incorporated into the general system opportunities to deregulate Sweden’s agriculture together with limited companies, trading compa- to make it more efficient and rational. As a result, nies, limited partnerships and sole traders. Sweden’s relatively good supply of fertile land can Land as a resource is handled in the same way now be utilised in an economically effective way as any other capital good. The result has been that and contribute to the global supply of food.

33 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

After the Land Acquisition Act was abolished, and cereals can be grown relatively far north, more and more Swedish farms have been while large parts of the world are suffering from bought up by limited companies and in 2030, drought and erosion. It is profitable to export most of the large farms are owned by multina- food from Sweden to many parts of the world, tional giants. Some of the companies are speci- despite trade barriers. Consumers in the im- alised agricultural groups while others belong porting countries spend a large share of their to company chains that have interests in several income on basic foodstuffs and problems with areas of products. food supply has led to open trade war. The demand for forest has also increased after There are no longer any large international, in- the right of public access was abolished which terstate funded research programmes of the kind means that berry production with professional that primarily the EU used to run. Because of pickers has become profitable for forestry compa- a lack of resources, the government’s funding of nies. Several food retailing groups have therefore research within the fields of agriculture and food become forest owners. has been reduced to a minimum. National research is therefore limited or of poor quality. Instead The world’ supply of calories multinational agricultural groups do some applied research and development. These companies are In 2010, 49 percent of the calorie sufficiently large to be able to fund extensive re- consumption of the world’s population came search but there are no international agreements from four products: wheat, rice, sugar and about how patents and other intellectual property corn. These products, primarily corn and rights are to be handled. It is difficult therefore wheat, are also used to a large extent in for companies to make money out of research animal feed and thereby indirectly further when results can be copied by competitors - it is contribute to humans’ calorie consumption. hard to assert property rights. Source: FAOSTAT Food Balance Sheets. Plant breeding and animal breeding, which http://faostat3.fao.org/browse/FB/*/E are often done using biotechnology and genetic engineering, are focused on properties that are All countries in Europe have controlled borders desirable at the processing stage. Companies strive and they make use of opportunities to fill up to create a production system that extends all the their coffers and protect their domestic sectors way to marketing to the customer, where their by having import customs wherever possible. own varieties and production methods are part Increased protectionism rums counter to the of the concept. Within animal breeding, multina- uneven distribution of fertile land: as a result tional companies produce new lines for different of climate change, yields increase in Sweden markets, for example, for different climate zones

34 Controlled by large companies

price fluctuations. Customs duties isolate markets Number of livestock breeds from one other and prevent trade from adapting to variations in supply and smoothing out In Sweden, milk production is dominated fluctuations. The companies protect themselves by the breed SLB. In 2014, 53 percent of from price variations in other ways too: because cattle were SLB, 39 percent were SRB of their size, they can supplement their product and only 8 percent were other breeds. portfolio with substitutes. A group that produces The trend is that SLB is increasing. beef, pork and poultry, and is large enough to According to FAO, 35 percent of the influence prices, can make a profit in almost any world’s domestic animal breeds are market situation. For example, the price of pork unthreatened while the status of 36 will increase if pig production is disrupted, which percent is unknown and the others are stabilises the profit of that sector at the same time either threaten (20 percent) or extinct as consumers will instead demand more beef and (9 percent). The situation is worse for poultry, which will increase profitability there. poultry than for mammals. The large companies’ interest in the Sources: environment Växa Sverige, Husdjursstatistik 2015. FAO. 2007. The state of the world’s animal genetic Agricultural land is a scarce commodity all over resources for food and agriculture. ISBN 978-92- the world in 2030. Producing food for a growing 5-105763-6 global population is profitable and Sweden is one of a diminishing number of countries and areas in the world where there is still fertile or different kinds of feed, and above all, for raw land that has not been ruined by environmental food materials for their own highly refined end toxins. Swedish land is therefore a valuable and products. Another reason for conducting a certain type of breeding and refining is to reduce the econo- Quote from Nestlé mic risk that is associated with poor harvests and ”Nestlé Waters recognizes that the long epidemics. By ensuring that each production re- term success of the company is built on gion produces at least a handful of different lines effective water stewardship in the water- and varieties, the damage that could be caused sheds where our factories are located and by an outbreak of disease can be limited. This in- where suppliers and consumers live.” surance aspect is particularly important since the high levels of border protection lead to stronger Source: www.nestle-waters.com, March 2016.

35 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

attractive resource for international investors. In that were previously categorised as ecosystem this story of the future, much of the companies’ services or external effects are now internal eco- capital is tied up in land ownership and the nomic effects for the companies. For example, shareholders demand that the land resources are the companies are forced to managed well. This means that the companies tend to pollinating insects by integrating are prepared to make long-term investments in beekeeping with their activities, adapting che- order to preserve the properties of the land that mical pest control to pollinators and ensuring influence productivity. For example, fertility is there are suitable habitats for the insects by highly valued. For brands that are directed at integrating suitable crop rotation and landscape the higher price segment, it is also important to elements. One side effect of this is that a certain limit the amount of toxins and injurious sub- amount of biological diversity is maintained. stances since any scandals will have a negative In addition, groundwater - which is used for effect on the status of the brand and the value of food processing and the production of bottled the shares. water - must be protected from plant nutrient Good protection against disease and pest mana- leaching and pesticides. However, the companies’ responsibility for Water Framework Directive the environment ends where collective benefits start. They are not interested in preserving The EU’s Water Framework Directive cultural landscape, nor in reducing their climate regulates activities that affect surface impact unless doing so would be advantageous water and groundwater in a run-off area. for the share owners’ private economies. In this It regulates, for example, the handling of story of the future, society has little interest in plant nutrients and wastewater. environmental preservation and state resources for handling problems - especially border-cros- Source: The European Parliament’s and the Council’s Directive 2000/60/EG of 23 October sing problems - are even smaller. Natural resour- 2000 on the setting up of a framework for the ces that are not owned privately have collapsed. community’s water policy measures. Leaching to watercourses is only prevented if the watercourses are owned by a company and used, for example, for aquaculture. The companies do not care about any leaching into the gement are important elements in the compa- Baltic Sea. Lack of collaboration around the nies’ strategies for quality assurance. Baltic Sea has resulted in there no longer being Because one and the same company owns any fish stocks of economic interest in Swedish large, connected areas of land, some of things waters. The Baltic Sea is therefore characte-

36 Controlled by large companies

rised by over-fertilisation, contamination and overfishing. Instead, fish are produced mainly through aquaculture on land where the produ- Resistance to antibiotics cer has full control of the entire process. In 2007, an estimated 25,000 people in the EU died as a result of an infection that Altered rural areas was caused by one of just five antibiotic- In 2030, the the prices of bulk commodities, resistant strains of bacteria. The cost for that is, non-processed agricultural raw food ma- society was estimated at 1.5 billion Euros. terials such as cereals, oil crops, sugar and starchy root vegetables, are too high for them to be used Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. 2009. ECDC/EMEA joint technical for animal fodder to any great extent. The large report. The bacterial challenge: Time to react. ISBN companies’ production of bulk goods is speci- 978-92-9193-193-4 alised on a few plant species that are grown on large areas in the most fertile lands in Sweden. Profit is created through the scarcity of land. It is crops such as vines and several varieties of fruit more profitable for companies to choose varie- and berries to be grown there. On land that is ties with a high yield than to produce diversified rich in lime, such as on the islands of Öland or niche products that few people are interested in Gotland and around the big lakes, new success- and even fewer can afford to buy. ful wine regions have been created. These areas No grazing cattle are seen in these regions are also attractive tourist destinations. since the large companies do all their meat and Agricultural work is done by employed farm milk production on a large scale indoors. Fodder workers. Agricultural work is like any other often consists of by-products from the food type of salaried work and the wage and status of industry. If there are effective drugs, antibiotics farm workers are similar to those of industrial are permitted in Sweden’s animal production. workers. The work consists mainly of supervi- Because of growing problems with resistance sing semi-automated processes and the number to antibiotics, many companies have introduced of employees is smaller than it was in the early strict quality assurance programmes to prevent 2000s. Robots and precision machinery that is the spreading of infectious diseases. The large controlled via GPS are used a lot but they must production units are not open to visitors and be supervised and maintained. extensive measures are taken to protect the ani- Small agricultural companies are no long- mals from infection. er of any major economic significance. They Less fertile land is also valuable and global lack the capital that is needed to farm the most warming has made it possible for new perennial fertile lands. On the other hand, there are more

37 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

“moonlight farmers” now than there were at the the same time, food is relatively expensive and beginning of the century. This is partly the result consumer-targeted marketing is essential. It is of a reactionary romantic trend, and partly be- profitable for the companies to refine foodstuffs cause of new poverty where people without any as far as possible. It is difficult to get hold of social network are forced to be self-sufficient good raw food materials in the shops. People in a black market economy. These small busi- who are living in a world where the news is full ness owners farm marginal lands that are small, of reports on conflicts and who are struggling poorly located and with a low yield per hectare. to make ends meet are not very interested in They cannot afford to use the large groups’ health and the environment. Animal welfare, the protected varieties and breeds; instead they are environment and similar values are played down forced to use older native breeds and varieties by the producers while convenience, taste and with low productivity which in turn cements health arguments are used in marketing. their poverty through continued poor yield. In a situation where only a few companies They contribute, albeit involuntarily, to the pre- dominate the market, the companies that admi- servation of fragments of cultural landscape and nister the brands that are most highly valued are to the survival of the native breeds. These small very keen to get good publicity. They actively farms provide opportunities for self-sufficiency strive to avoid scandalous headlines caused, for and a certain financial security at a time when example, by residues of pesticides or cases of social welfare networks have become weaker. poisoning. The excess is sold and some companies have In the low-price segment, the health effects of succeeded in creating niche markets in which food are less important. Raw food materials for the large companies are not interested, for ex- that type of foodstuffs are purchased from areas ample, tourism for nostalgic town-dwellers, the that are already downgraded from an environ- cultivation of tobacco and cannabis, the selling mental point of view. of exotic, organic products, and farm-produced dairy products for upper class gourmets.

Weak consumers In 2030, the structure of the foodstuffs chain is completely different from the way it was in the 2010s. Many large companies own everything from production and processing to distribution and retail. Consumers have little power because they are numerous, small and not organised. At

38 Controlled by large companies

Food desert The term “food desert” is used to de- note ”areas where people experience physical and economic obstacles that prevent access to healthy foodstuffs”. In food deserts, there is only fast-food and semi-manufactured food. Food deserts have been linked to health problems and the Department of Agricultu- re in the USA publishes maps showing how food deserts are spreading.

Sources: Reissig och Hobbiss, Health education journal. 2009:59, 137-159

www.ers.usda.gov/data/fooddesert

39 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

What can the market handle? This story of the future describes a situation clean bathing water and strong fish-stocks. where the climate and environment have Because there is no reasonable definition deteriorated. Thanks to strong property rights, of property rights, it is not possible to stop primarily for land ownership, companies do certain consumers from enjoying the benefits take at least a limited amount of responsibility of limiting climate change, in the same way for the environment and health. This is as it is impossible to create our own private achieved in part by changes in legislation climate gas bubble. Other environmental (like for the land), and in part because the effects that cannot be handled in this scenario companies are so large that goods that used are resistance to antibiotics, air quality and to be collective - fertility, pollination and water border-crossing assets such as fish. quality - have now become private goods. If the bureaucratic control of public environ- Companies preserve their valuable land mental goods stops, there is a risk of an resources out of self-interest - bees would ecological collapse. In some circumstances, not have the energy to fly over to a competitor voluntary cooperation as regards the use of anyway and the company’s own drinking water a common resource may reduce or solve the sources are located on its own land. Because problem. In this story, many problems could more goods have become private, the value have been avoided through even strong- of the companies’ investments is guaranteed er property rights for, for instance, the sea, and the companies choose voluntarily to take lakes and other watercourses. Transboundary responsibility for the environment when it problems require transboundary solutions. serves their own economic interests. In this future scenario, one way of making it If property rights were weaker, the ecological easier for companies to do research could system could completely collapse. In many be international agreements about property areas, companies do not take any responsi- rights related to research findings. It is harder bility at all. This applies to values from which to construct effective market solutions for cli- it is difficult to exclude consumers and other mate impact since it is technically impossible companies (and thereby difficult to charge to exclude any one person from the global for) such as a varied agricultural landscape, climate.

40 Controlled by large companies

The problem with public goods is a real problem. Identifying what the market can handle and what things must be handled in other ways is an important matter for economists.

Discussion questions • What conflicts are there between promoting freedom of trade and taking ecological responsibility? • What environmental problems could reasonably be handled by private property rights in this future scenario? What natural resources would probably collapse? • What distinguishes land from other production factors such as work, buildings and machinery? Is special legislation needed for business deals involving land? • Is there any fundamental difference between agricultural companies and other companies that can justify special treatment in the form of, for example, special agricultural policies?

Some economists, with Elinor Ostrom at the forefront, claim that voluntary cooperation among users of a common resource can, in certain circumstances, solve what is often called “the tragedy of the commons” (Governing the Commons, Cambridge 1990). • What natural resources could be managed in that way in this future scenario?

41 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

The new rural population This story of the future is set in 2030 in means the need for pesticides has decreased a future characterised by unrest. Global since they can be replaced by manual population is growing and a steady stream of weeding. refugees and migrants is coming to Europe. In this scenario, economies of scale is still a The EU and the Swedish state have regulated driver and there are many huge farms which asylum immigration so it is kept at an even are concentrated in the most fertile farmlands level with about 120,000 immigrants per year. on the plains. In other places, there is a wide This to be compared with 2015 when 160,000 variation of forms of farming and different migrants came to Sweden. As a result of specialisations. The relative number of small migration, Sweden’s population has increased farms has increased and “community work” by 2 million since 2015. means that even small family farms can afford The future scenario depicted in this story to hire extra labour. More people live in the describes dramatic changes. The new country and many have vegetable gardens, immigration has implied an upswing for bee hives and animals such as hens and rural areas and agriculture and has made rabbits. All in all, a larger share of Sweden’s a significant impact on Sweden’s economy. land area is used for farming and there are no But in what ways have immigrants affected longer any abandoned fields. Natural pasture how agriculture is conducted, long-term has increased and it is now also possible sustainability, the agricultural landscape and for animals to graze in areas where there biological diversity? This story of the future are many predators. In many regions, these describes an economy with a surplus of developments have been positive for the labour. Fossil fuels are expensive because of landscape and biological diversity. mandatory climate policy objectives. Much of the work that used to be done by machinery is now done manually. For some crops, this

42 The new rural population

Rural areas in 2016 This story is about events that took Like any other Western countries, place during the 15-year period leading economic developments in Sweden up to 2030. In 2016, urbanisation had generally were weak during the early characterised Sweden’s rural areas for 2000s. The age structure of the po- more than 150 years. Uneaven regi- pulation made it difficult to maintain a onal development had effected the sufficiently high level of production and age structure for decades since young there were deep holes in Sweden’s wel- people had moved to cities and univer- fare. Since many years back, cities were sity towns. Because of that, there were divided into wealthy inner-city areas and few women of fertile age in rural areas poor suburbs. In rural areas, many jobs and fewer and fewer children were born had disappeared and benefits for the there. In the long run, this led to schools unemployed had decreased. and shops closing down. In parts of the inland, both in the forestland in the north and further south, forecasts showed that the population that was of working age would not be sufficient to even cover the labour needs of the eldercare sector. Urbanisation had been replaced in part by depopulation that was almost self-propelled.

43 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

44 The new rural population

Scenario: From depopulation to growth

n 2030, the global challenges of population agricultural company or with taking care of pro- growth, economic growth, energy use and tected natural areas, culture reserves or landscape Iclimate change have moved into most people’s care in towns. everyday lives. The demand for land is increasing The people who do community work receive in the world. The yield from forest and land is be- an allowance from the state and the companies coming increasingly important and all agricultural only pay a small part of the salary (a symbolic land must be taken into use. amount). However, the entrepreneur is expected Food production has high status and is given to function as a supervisor and mentor for the political priority: all land must be used and cared people doing community work. Many munici- for. Climate change has meant the preconditions palities and communities in Sweden’s rural areas for agriculture in northern Europe are favourable welcome the immigrants because they help to and the economic significance of agriculture has vitalise the area and create a new rural economy. increased. In Sweden, the desire to farm land con- Rural areas that previously were characterised by curs with a rapid increase of the rural population depopulation and an increasingly ageing popu- after decades of depopulation. The large growth lation are now characterised by growth and a in population in rural areas is mostly an effect of significantly larger share of young people in the immigration but also a consequence of the high population. cost of homes in the cities. Many newcomers are well-educated officials Immigrants are immediately sent on after their from urban environments who lack experience arrival in Sweden. It is essential they start to work of and interest in agricultural work. This can lead as soon as possible and get a chance to become to social problems but on the whole, community integrated in Swedish society and they do a num- work works as a form of integration. Because it is ber of months of obligatory “community work” combined with Swedish lessons, most immigrants in the public or private sector. accept community work as an initial, obligatory At this time, for years rural areas in Sweden phase of their new life in Sweden, even if they have been receiving about 50,000-60,000 new do not intend to continue to work in agriculture. residents each year. Half of them work in the For those who want to continue to work in the gardening, farming and forestry sectors and with agricultural sector, community work serves as a natural resource management, for example, for an kind of entrance ticket.

45 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

Swedish agriculture has become dependent on natural pastures have become profitable again. the immigrants. The profitability of the larger The Swedish government’s standpoint is that all farms is adapted to this “free labour”, since inter- land that can be used for agricultural production ventions are funded by the state. The supply of must be used and it gives financial aid to people workers provides increased revenue in agricultu- who want to establish new agricultural compa- re. Some examples are round-the-clock supervi- nies, cultivate new land or resume the use of old, sion of farrowing stalls which means more piglets overgrown fields. survive, the pruning of young forest which The crops consist mostly of vegetables, legu- improves the quality of the timber, weeding and mes and cereals for consumption by humans, and thinning which gives better quality vegetables to a lesser extent animal feed. Meat consump- and fruit. The large farms have a rolling schedule tion has gone down as a result of successful state where newcomers are brought into the work regulation of the price. The production of eggs, place as those who have completed their months meat and milk is to a large extent dependent of community work leave. For the more advan- on grazing lands and on residual products being ced work tasks, people with training and expe- used as feed. rience are required. For many immigrants, community work serves as an apprenticeship period Seasonal work and cheap labour and they are later given a job at the company or As the population grows, the demand for food they find employment at another company in increases. At the same time, the supply of cheap the rural area. The large farms also need foremen labour is increasing. Fossil fuels are expensive and many are recruited from the people who because of climate policy measures, which makes had previously done community work there. it easier for farming methods that are based on Their language skills are an important asset for manual labour to compete with methods that the entrepreneurs. Providing further training to need diesel. Alongside the development of high- people in transit between community work and tech technology intended for large farms, new a “proper” job in agriculture has become an im- technology is also being developed for tools and portant activity for agricultural upper secondary methods that make manual jobs easier. Much of schools and advisory organisations. this development work is done by entrepreneurs Farm amalgamation has continued and about with small companies who work in rural areas. five percent of the farms now use almost half A large number of people who live in rural of the area. All agricultural companies have areas make a living by combining different occu- diversified their production so as to be prepa- pations and they also produce their own food to red for fluctuations in global market prices. The varying degrees. These country residents, most of increased value of arable land means that old them newcomers, consist of a mixture of people

46 The new rural population

who have moved out from the cities and immig- Contacts in the immigrants’ home countries rants who have stayed on in the rural area where mean the networks can expand internationally they did their community work. Together with with a fair degree of export of Swedish foods- the people who lived in the rural areas before, tuffs and other agricultural products. they form a sort of farm worker proletariat that provides the farmers with cheap labour. They New resources develop are only in demand in the peak season since the The new rural population has contributed to a farms have a good supply of immigrants through large variation in the development of rural areas. community work. There are almost no seasonal The tens of thousands of people who come to workers from other EU countries. Sweden’s rural areas every year have a wide range The working conditions of farm labour are of experience, knowledge, education, awareness, poor and wages are generally low. Wage levels values, norms, etcetera. They encounter many vary according to season and the availability of different situations and feelings when it comes to, immigrants doing community work. At the same for example, accommodation, the expectations of time, terms of employment are uncertain. the local residents, resistance, hopes, fears, and ex- Rural areas are also characterised by a steady plicit and implicit values. The immigrants come flow-through of people with some moving out to places where everyday life has been shaped and others moving in. The local communities are over many centuries in circumstances that are exposed to more and more global knowledge, unknown to the newcomers. different ways of making a living and types of This situation can sometimes give rise to everyday life. The number of people living in ru- conflicts concerning rights, ownership and the ral areas has a regular pattern of variation because use of different resources. However, on the of seasonal workers. whole, the new population has found its place In 2030, agriculture is a growing sector. Thanks in Sweden’s rural areas. Out of the emptiness to the state aid which is provided as an integra- that urbanisation and depopulation created, new tion policy measure, a relatively large number of resources are developing with people who have new agricultural companies are being established come here to work and make a new life for and some smaller farms are owned by immig- themselves. However, the way they are received rants. They are often niche producers focused varies. In some places, immigrants are seen as a on products that are in demand by immigrants. much needed input of new residents, not just Some have experience of trade and commerci- cheap labour, and they are well received. People al activities and new networks develop within are interested in their culture, food traditions and distribution and retail which challenge the old handicrafts and are pleased to have new, young structure with its small number of large players. families in the area. Many people realise that

47 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

without immigrants, the school, shop and health- are niche grocery stores where food that has been care clinic would have closed down long ago. The produced in Sweden is sold and which meets a increase in population has also made it easier to huge variety of demands linked to food traditions make a living in the country, for example, in the from different parts of the world. Immigrants construction trade, in the service sector and in make use of their international networks and childcare and eldercare. export goods to the parts of the world that they In other places, the immigrants are met with come from and to migrants in other countries. resistance but those who start up their own Community work is a kind of subsidy that business become better integrated with Swedish increases the competitiveness of Swedish agri- society. Hard work is a key to legitimacy and culture. As the system was developing, there was being accepted in rural areas. New business concern that it would lead to economic pro- activities that become successful fill the gap that blems: a greater supply of products but without a was created during the years when young people corresponding increase in demand. However, the moved to the towns. effects of increased production are compensated The system with community work has given to a large extent by reduced food imports since rise to new forms of enterprise and ownership the competitiveness of Swedish food has im- and new forms of operation. The immigrants that proved. Swedish agriculture competes to a high marry into Swedish farming families are also part degree with food production in other countries of the integration process. This often means that that is “subsidised” in various ways, for example, the next generation continues to run the family through poor animal welfare, extensive use of farm. antibiotics or poor working conditions. The input of labour that community work implies is Increased competitiveness but poorer generally seen as being compensation for this - a work conditions different but reasonable type of subsidy. On the The new small farmers have brought a somewhat one hand, community work has helped Sweden different view of animal husbandry and animal not to be sucked down into a negative spiral, a welfare with them, at the same time as demands “race to the bottom” when it comes to food pro- for competitiveness and maximum production duction that is ethically and socially acceptable. have increased. Swedish animal protection has On the other hand, community work has led to loosened up and is now more or less the same as poorer work conditions in Sweden. This two-si- in the rest of Europe. New trade networks chal- ded development means it is difficult to evaluate lenge the traditional food distributors and retai- the state’s investment in community work. lers, and small stakeholders who have interests in the entire production chain have appeared. There

48 The new rural population

Finally... This story depicts the year 2030 when Developments in the world challenge there has been extensive flows of migrants several of our core values, for example, the to Europe for many years. There is war and distribution of resources in society. Will there unrest in many countries and people flee to, be political strength and will to slow down or for example, Sweden. The world’s population change the distribution of resources so there is increasing and thereby also the need for will be tax revenue for interventions to give food. Changes in climate have become very immigrants work and education so that in the noticeable. long term they will be able to contribute to the creation of resources for society? The future scenario that is described here is to be seen from the perspective of Swedish agriculture.

Discussion questions • What will the consequences be for our view on immigrants in the future depicted in this story? • In this story, what are people’s views regarding welfare, how animals are treated and the feeling of “us and them”? • Which part of the scenario would connect to your preferred future? • In what ways can we bring about that world?

Further reading Westholm, E. 2016. Framtidstro och framtidsoro i flyktingfrågan. Article published in the MittMedia group’s newspapers on 18 April 2016. Example: www.dt.se/kultur/debatt-ar-invandringen-ljuset-for-landsbyg- den-och-en-aterkomst-av-det-medborgerliga-ansvaret

49 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

Eco-labelled food or eco-smart food for everyone? Will there be a need for organic foodstuffs taking measures to adapt conventional to be eco-labelled in the future or will that production to environmental objectives. The labelling system no longer be of any relevance? need to be able to justify the difference in price The need for labelling is very different in the between organic and conventional food means two future scenarios depicted in this story. the set of rules for organic production is not In the first scenario, the difference between adapted to new technology and the knowledge organic and conventionally produced food that is needed to improve harvests. has become so small that labelling has lost its As the world’s population grows, the question significance. Consumers are very interested about the productive capacity of agriculture in environmental issues, climate threat, becomes increasingly important. At the same animal ethics and food quality and they have time, there are growing demands that food confidence that all food production lives up production must be more sustainable and to such requirements. New technology and a be adapted to international conventions and good supply of plant fertiliser give sufficient environmental and social obligations. harvests even though chemical pesticides are not used. In order to push developments in the desired direction, both state regulations and eco- In the other scenario, developments have nomic control instruments are needed, and gone in the opposite direction and organic consumers must be able to have an influence food has become an expensive alternative that through carefully considered choices. It is not only a few people can afford. The need to be self-evident which measures have the greatest able to feed a growing global population has impact; it depends on the political, economic created huge differences, with high-intensive and social preconditions in society. In order bulk production for the large majority of for measures to be effective, a common view the populace and environmentally-adapted is probably needed with regard to objectives, production for a wealthy middle class. Eco- clearly stated criteria for decisions and choices, labelled food serves as an excuse for not

50 Eco-labelled food or eco-smart food for everyone?

and confidence that laws and agreements will and organic labelled food became a positive be followed. marketing factor for a growing number of restaurants. However, economic control instru- In the 2030s, the period in which both scena- ments in the form of taxes and subsidies, and rios are set, it is possible to look back on rapid regulation via Swedish legislation and interna- developments within the food sector. The last tional agreements, were often of much greater decades of the 20th century and the first of significance for agriculture than the choices the 21st century were characterised by segre- made by consumers on the basis of labelling. gated food consumption where environmentally-aware and well-off consumers bought The following section presents two different eco-labelled and fair trade labelled food, to a future scenarios. In the first, environment and greater or lesser extent. Labelling was seen as climate issues are important and there is a lot one of many ways of minimising the negative of interest in sustainable consumption. In the and increasing the positive effects of food other, developments have gone in a different production. Many municipalities and county direction. The economy is weak and most councils adopted goals for procurements which people are more interested in cheap food than implied increasing the share of organic food, in how it is produced. Organic 3.0 Today’s food market is severely polarised IFOAM – Organics International has initia- and prevailing regulations draw up a clear ted a discussion about the future develop- dividing line between organically and con- ment of organic agriculture (Organic 3.0) ventionally produced food. The differences so as to reach more consumers and play in price and supply also exclude many a more significant role in efforts to meet consumers. Even if demand is increasing, global challenges. This is justified by, for still only a minority of the population buy example, the relatively modest amount of organic food. The question is whether organic production, slow adjustment to mo- developments towards sustainable food dern technology and new methods, and the production can be based on well-informed flaws of certification systems. The long- and well-off consumers paying more for term goal is to loosen up the rigid set of food, especially considering there are diffe- regulations that the best solutions are used rent views about which criteria are the best to achieve sustainable food production. from a sustainability point of view.

51 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

52 Eco-labelled food or eco-smart food for everyone?

Scenario 1: Eco-smart food for everyone

n 2030, at all levels of society, people are expectations regarding organic labelled food interested in sustainability. Thanks to forceful were primarily that it was produced without the Iglobal environmental policies, emissions of use of pesticides but also that it was good for carbon dioxide have been dramatically redu- the animals and the environment. However, the ced and there is sufficient farmland to feed the regulations were sometimes criticised for being world’s population. Awareness of the importance too rigid and organic production struggled with of ecocycling has meant there is enough of the the same major sustainability challenges as con- inputs needed for agriculture, primarily nitrogen ventional farming: a broken cycle of nutrients, and phosphorus. The EU has strict control over the leaching of nutrients into lakes and the sea, environmental, climate and energy policies. Mo- dependency on fossil fuels, and the displacement reover, many people are involved in issues linked of natural ecosystems. to the sustainable use of resources, biological The low market share of eco-labelled goods diversity and global justice. and difficulties tackling environmental and climate problems led to widespread discussion Sustainable cultivation systems within the international organic movement and Food production is characterised by cultivation to fundamental changes in the regulations. In systems that produce sufficient food and which 2030, mineral fertiliser is accepted as a comple- are well adapted to society’s environmental ment to organic fertiliser which has resulted in objectives. The development and adaptation of bigger harvests. organic and conventional farming that took The re-circulation of plant nutrients is not place during the 2020s has meant that the yet working satisfactorily but new technology differences between the cultivation systems are has enabled the return of phosphorus to arable too small to justify special eco-labelling. Becau- land to begin. Farmyard manure, nitrogen-fixing se of that, eco-labelling has almost disappeared. crops and digestate are important for the supply In the 2010s, both consumers and many deci- of nitrogen but mineral fertiliser is also used to sion-makers viewed eco-labelling as a way of balance the crops’ need for plant nutrients. This confirming that the item in question was the has in turn led to a positive effect on the climate best alternative from the perspective of sustai- by more carbon being stored in the ground. nability. An opinion poll showed that people’s There have been many changes in the field of

53 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

plant protection since the 2010s. Together with Eco-labelled - what does that mean? the EU’s set of regulations, the rapid develop- At the same time as the regulations for organic ment of resistance to chemical pesticides has cultivation were changed, a more eco-friendly forced new solutions to be found for controlling regulation of food production at both EU level weeds and plant pests. A global phasing-out of and national level was introduced. Because the chemical pesticides has taken place alongside new guidelines were accepted by both farmers the development of new technology and new and consumers, few consumers were willing to methods and the use of chemical pesticides is pay more for food that is produced according to strictly limited to acute attacks by pests. Ac- a strict set of regulations associated with the cer- ceptance for different plant breeding methods tification of organic cultivation. Now, it is seen such as GMO and CRISPR/Cas9 technology as being self-evident that all food is produced in has made it easier to develop crops that are less a sustainable way and the system of eco-labelled sensitive to plant disease and pests, and which food has disappeared. However, in some cases, can compete better with weeds. Biological pest negative eco-labelling can be used as informa- control is common and advanced robot techno- tion to consumers, for example, to inform them logy is used for weed control. that the cultivation of a certain crop requires At the same time, the significance of using leys intensive watering or that chemical pesticides for bio-energy crops has increased which means have been used as an emergency measure. that more farmers can make use of leys and thereby reduce weed infestation and crop rotation diseases. By supplementing the supply of plant nutrients with mineral fertiliser, crops grow more and can compete better with weeds.

54 Eco-labelled food or eco-smart food for everyone?

Resistance to chemical pesticides Extensive use of chemical pesticides many cases have been identified in to control pests, growth pathogens black grass, chickweed and loose silky and weeds has in many cases led to bent which are problematic weeds in increased tolerance or resistance. The autumn sown crops. first cases of resistance to insectici- des were detected in the pollen beetle Since the 1980s, no chemical weed- Meligethes aeneus in Sweden in 2000. killers with new modes of action have Globally speaking, the development been developed which has been of resistance in weeds has increased a contributing factor to the lack of dramatically since the 1960s (www. effective pesticides. weedscience.org), and in Sweden,

Plant breeding with GMO and CRISPR/Cas9 One important way of reducing de- CRISPR/Cas9 is a new method that pendency on chemical pesticides is to makes it possible to give a plant a new develop crops that are resistant to diffe- property without putting in new DNA in rent plant pests (such as fungi, insects its germ plasm. In November 2015, the or virus). The use of genetically modified Swedish Board of Agriculture anno- plants is one effective way of deve- unced that organisms that have been loping resilient varieties but in Europe given new properties through CRISPR/ there is still widespread resistance to Cas9 are not to be regarded as be- such crops. In Sweden, there has been ing genetically modified. This means experimental cultivation of a variety of permission is not needed to cultivate a potato that is tolerant to potato late plant that has been refined using this blight, a disease that farmers control by technology. chemical means many times during a season.

55 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

56 Eco-labelled food or eco-smart food for everyone?

Scenario 2: Eco-labelled food for only a few people

n the other future scenario, the situation is dified to withstand weed-killers but there are Sweden is more difficult. In 2030, global constantly new reports about weeds that are no Ipopulation growth is high and many people longer sensitive to the broad-spectrum pesticides are poor. Some people are still well-off in this that are used. In some cases, farmers have been over-exploited world but there is a shortage of forced to change to a more varied crop rotation productive arable land and water. The political but usually, the solution has been to ease off res- ambitions as regards climate and the environme- trictions concerning pesticides. Several substan- nt are low and the effects of climate change are ces that were forbidden in the early 2000s are clearly noticeable. now permitted again and a notoriously harmful agent like paraquat is used with special permis- Hard-pressed cultivation systems sion for several crops. The EU’s rules for food production have become weaker but the population’s need for food, Eco-labelling for only a few people and competitive bio-fuel crops and fossil-free Politicians and most of the general public show materials are bringing about intensive and little interest in environmental issues and many one-sided cultivation that is based on extensive consumers feel unsure of the quality of food. use of pesticides and commercial fertilisers. In The most well-informed people are also con- this story, people’s confidence in new techno- cerned about the effects of production on the logy and new methods is very low, especially in environment and biological diversity. Concern the fields of plant breeding and animal breeding about the quality of food means that those and the industry does not want to invest in an who have knowledge and can afford the extra uncertain market. It is possible to buy organic expense want to be able to choose food that food but the range of products is limited and is free from pesticides. To satisfy this category’s prices are considerably higher than for conven- wishes, there is a small, exclusive range of orga- tionally produced food. nic food that is primarily based on consumers’ Conventional agriculture has major problems concern for their own health (personal benefit). with pests and weeds which have become However, there is little interest in paying for col- resistant to chemical pesticides. It is common lective benefits (climate and the environment). to grow crops that have been genetically mo- People have little confidence in public authori-

57 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

ties’ and companies’ monitoring of the environ- and a limited demand means that the supply ment and therefore the eco-labels that do exist of organic food is limited, especially in small are certified through a strictly controlled system towns, but consumers who live in the big cities of regulations. The stringent requirements of and who care about the environment and have consumer organisations and the producers’ need financial resources can always find what they are for a high added value price are the basis of looking for. So in this scenario, consumer power the cooperation behind the eco-labels. Organic works at individual level but it has very little ef- food can be sold at a high price to those who fect on the environment as a whole and it does can afford to pay for it. However, conventional- not contribute to push developments towards ly produced food is considerably cheaper since sustainable food production. there are few regulations and inputs are still relatively cheap. The high price of organic food means it is primarily people with a high income who can afford to buy organic food regularly. High prices

58 Eco-labelled food or eco-smart food for everyone?

Finally... These two future scenarios portray two diffe- only for people who care about their health rent pictures of reality in which the eco-label- and who can afford to pay extra for it. Con- ling of food represents completely different ventional cultivation has major problems with things. In the first scenario, eco-labelling is resistance to pesticides and the industry is viewed as an odd phenomoenon since it is not interested in investing in new technology. taken for granted that all food is produced The organic movement has not succeeded in with the greatest respect for the environme- reforming its set of regulations nor broade- nt, animals, the climate and the farmers’ life ning its customer base. situation. Eco-smart food for everyone or eco-label- There is a lot of interest in sustainability at all led food as a luxury item for a few people. levels of society which has created the neces- In which direction do we want to go? What sary prerequisites for a powerful environme- is possible and what can be realistically ntal policy which is supported by the general achieved? What is needed to change the way public. There is also acceptance among both things are developing? Hopefully, the ques- consumers and farmers for new technological tions below can be used as a starting point for solutions which has facilitated the phasing important discussions on the future produc- out of chemical pesticides. The terms organic tion and consumption of food. cultivation and conventional cultivation no longer exist. In the other scenario, for most people the most important thing is to get food on the table. There is eco-labelled food but this is

59 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

Power over food Knowledgeable and well-informed tion to consumers and enable produ- consumers can influence how food is cers to set a higher price on food that to be produced. A person who knows has cost more to produce. However, the how something is produced can take effectiveness of eco-labelling depends that into account when making purcha- on how consumers perceive the added ses, together with other factors such value. In order for consumers to want as price and taste. An eco-label or fair to buy eco-labelled food, not only must trade label can show, for example, that they have great faith in the label cer- the food has been produced in a way tification rules, there must also be an that has minimum negative impact on obvious positive effect of the choices the environment and which is also of that are made in the shops. collective benefit, not just good for the individual. The labels provide informa-

Discussion questions • What role does the eco-labelling of food have for the development of sustainable agriculture from an environmental, climate and profitability perspective? • Would it be a positive development if organic and conventional agriculture moved closer together in the way described in scenario 1? • What are the main prerequisites and barriers for removing the differences between organic and conventional farming?

60 Eco-labelled food or eco-smart food for everyone?

Further reading Ekologisk produktion och konsumtion

https://www.jordbruksverket.se/amnesomraden/stod/ jordbrukarstod/ersattningarforekologiskproduktion/ ersattningforekologiskproduktion.4.6c64aa881525004b53beef8a.html

www.slu.se/globalassets/ew/org/centrb/epok/dokument/eko3.0_broschyr_web.pdf

http://arkiv.krav.se/mr2015/marknadsrapport-2015-webb.pdf Genetiskt modifierade organismer

http://genteknik.nu/nya-tekniker

www.naturvardsverket.se/Miljoarbete-i-samhallet/Miljoarbete-i-Sverige/Uppdelat-efter- omrade/Naturvard/Genetiskt-modifierade-organismer

http://supermiljobloggen.se/nyheter/2014/05/mikael-karlsson- naturskyddsforeningen-en-del-gmo-produkter-kan-fa-gront-ljus-och-andra-rott Återvinning av fosfor

http://miljonytta.se/arbetsplatser/ny-teknik-for-atervinning-av-fosfor

www.ja.se/artikel/49776/manga-vill-atervinna-fosfor.html Mekanisk ogräsbekämpning

www.ucdavis.edu/news/uc-davis-developing-faster-more-accurate-robotic-cultivator

www.deepfield-robotics.com/en/Weeding.html Kemisk bekämpning

http://www2.jordbruksverket.se/download/18.724b0a8b148f52338a35a5d/ 1414588038252/ovr292v3.pdf

https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parakvat#H.C3.A4lsorisker

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Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

Swedish agriculture 2.0

In this story, 2030 is characterised by rapid agribusinesses which achieve profitability by climate change and dramatic population buying up land and smaller companies and growth which has led to unrest in the world. investing capital in technological solutions. All over the world, natural resources are under This future scenario is based on a shift in strong pressure and food prices are high. how food production is done which perhaps In this future scenario, Swedish consumers challenges both traditions and societal values. are not particularly interested in how food is produced, nor in environmental values or cultural heritage. Instead, Swedish food production is run primarily by multinational

Strategy for a competitive agricultural and gardening industry In a government inquiry on a competitive se legislation at EU level (p. 75): ”that agricultural and gardening industry that the government pushes to sharpen EU was done in 2015, it was suggested legislation on animal protection. Further- (p. 64) ”that the Land Acquisition Act more, the government shall promote an should be changed so as to make it ea- equal application of legislation at EU sier for limited companies to purchase level”. farmland. The act covers both farmland Source: SOU 2015:5. Konkurrenskrafts- and forest.” utredningen. Attraktiv, innovativ och hållbar - strategi för en konkurrenskraftig In the same inquiry, there is also a jordbruks- och trädgårdsnäring. proposal to both sharpen and harmoni- Stockholm, Elanders Sverige AB.

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Swedish agriculture 2.0

Size rationalisation in Swedish agriculture From the 1950s up to the present is happening in almost all industries (2016), Sweden’s agricultural sector has and companies linked to agriculture been characterised by size rationalisa- and food production all over the world. tion. That means that over time busines- Globalisation and financialisation seem ses have become fewer and larger. to be driving this trend forward and research predicts that this will mean the The Swedish (and global) trend towards end of all profitable family farms over fewer and larger agricultural companies the coming decades. is expected to continue. Calculations in the USA using a method that measures Sources: the total percentage of the market that Clapp, J. 2014. Financialization, distance is controlled by the four largest players and global food politics. The Journal of (known as the four-firm concentra- Peasant Studies, 41(5), p. 797-814. tion ratio - CR4) show that increased Hendrickson, M., James Jr, H.S., vertical integration and concentration Heffernan, W.D. 2014. Vertical Integration and Concentration in US Agriculture. Table 1. Number of companies according to size (hecta- Encyclopedia of Food and Agricultural res of arable land) Ethics: 1799-1806.

1990 1999 2013 Jordbruksverket. 2016. Jordbruksstatistisk sammanställning. All farms 96,560 80,119 67, 14 6 >0–2 — — 3,935 Morell, M. 2011. Farmland: ownership 2.1–5.0 14,957 11,344 10,142 or leasehold, inheritance or purchase. Antonson, H. and Jansson, U. (Eds.), 5.1–10.0 19,020 15,229 13,857 Agriculture and Forestry in Sweden since 10.1–20.0 20,832 16,656 12,439 1900. Skogs- och lantbrukshistoriska 20.1–30.0 12,177 9,295 6,022 meddelanden, vol. 54, p. 56-74. Stockholm, Royal Swedish Academy of 30.1–50.0 14,223 11,445 6,778 Agriculture and Forestry. 50.1–100.0 11,348 10,969 7,368 >100 4,003 5,181 6,605

63 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

64 Swedish agriculture 2.0

Scenario: A future scenario characterised by competition

t is 2030. Transnational agribusinesses are Changes in Swedish legislation also affected flourishing in Sweden, mostly as a result of developments. A change in the Land Acquisition Ithe harmonisation of EU laws, liberal trade Act which made it easier for legal entities, for agreements, technological developments and instance, limited companies, to purchase farm- a continuous striving for improved profitabi- land had disastrous consequences for the survival lity and lower food prices. In particular, the of family farms. harmonisation of EU legislation and changes During the last 15 years, Swedish agribu- in the Land Acquisition Act have resulted in sinesses have made huge investments in new agribusinesses gaining a power hold during the technology so as to increase their production 2020s over the food sector, both with regard to capacity and gain competitive advantages. The production and the distribution of food to trade companies have taken on loans with variable, and consumers. Swedish farmers’ efforts to make low interest rates in order to buy land and au- their production profitable meant that in the tomated machinery for, for example, field work 2010s, they called for a harmonisation of EU and robotised animal care. For the few but large legislation. This story assumes that this harmo- agribusinesses that dominate the production of nisation was based on the lowest standards. That cheap products in Sweden in 2030, the margins means that instead of demanding that other are better than ever. To minimise labour costs countries must apply Sweden’s more stringent and increase profitability, the agribusinesses have rules, it was easier to create equal conditions replaced workers in agriculture with GPS-con- throughout the whole of the EU. However, at trolled robots and drones. However, this has the same time, this strategy meant that the future led to many people becoming unemployed in of Swedish farmers was controlled by technolo- rural areas which were already characterised by gy-driven rationalisation and agribusinesses. This a high level of unemployment. The demograp- led to poorer export conditions, problems with hic structure of Sweden’s rural areas with few food safety and domestic competitiveness, and in children and young people means there is often the end, a dismantling of the traditional lifestyle no one to take over the few family farms that where food production is based on family farms. have not yet been bought up by agribusinesses.

65 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

Other factors such as the financial conditions the food they buy and they care very little about for production and the lack of alternative work where it comes from while well-off Swedish opportunities create problems for family farms. consumers still want food of “top quality” and People have moved to cities and towns to look are prepared to pay extra for it. However, many for work so as to make a living which has made of these turn to high-tech agribusinesses rather it hard for small communities to maintain even than to family farms to buy the food they prefer. the most basic forms of service, such as schools In the agribusinesses’ laboratories, technology and healthcare. Many rural communities have such as 3D printers and electrospinning are used therefore become poor, from both a social and to customise food to suit consumers’ preferences economic point of view. In many small towns in when it comes to flavour, consistency and cook- rural parts of Sweden, blocks of flats and houses ing properties. The test-tube meat that is created stand empty and derelict. in laboratories, for example, beef, chicken, lamb The agribusinesses have begun to challenge and fish, is seen as being environmentally neutral the four supermarket chains in Sweden by and ethical for animals even though it is expen- integrating vertically. This means that they are sive. Traditional farms still produce agricultural gradually integrating several different parts of products such as fruit and vegetables and they a product’s food chain into the same company. also rear animals on a small scale. The meat that They are now using the same strategy that they is produced at the farms is not necessarily tastier used to automate production to pack and deliver but it is somewhat different from laboratory products direct to customers which shuts out meat and some people prefer it. some of the food chain’s traditional players, such The traditional competitive advantages of as butchers, wholesalers and retailers. With the the family farms are now becoming less signi- help of wireless cameras and internet, consumers ficant. This means they do not have sole rights can follow how their fruit and vegetables are to production methods which are perceived as growing and see when they are harvested. By ta- being organic, genuine, authentic and environ- king over or shutting out the traditional whole- mentally friendly. The agribusinesses have found salers, the agribusinesses have begun to increase ways of mechanising production and making it their margins and profitability. Their advanced more cost-effective and they have succeeded in technology, in combination with harmonised convincing consumers that their methods are trade-focused legislation, also means they could environmentally friendly. A diminishing sha- produce sufficient food to feed Sweden’s entire re of Swedish consumers still value “genuine” population. products and they buy local products but it is The majority of Swedish consumers are in the becoming increasingly difficult to know what cities. They spend as little money as possible on products they should buy since most claim they

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have been authentically produced. In 2030, animal protein which is produced in the form family businesses make it clear that they are of cultured muscles in laboratories, that is to say, not agribusinesses and those that are profitable meat production without breeding or slaughte- focus on niche products on a small scale or on ring. This development is supported by certain creating close customer relationships with the analysts who believed even back in the 2010s wealthy members of the urban population. that test-tube meat would revolutionise and reshape animal husbandry in a way that we have The survival of agricultural companies not seen since the transition from the hunting in an over-exploited world and gathering society to agricultural society. The agribusinesses are very aware that innova- Since this is a question of meat being produced tion is the key to competitive advantages and in the form of cultured muscles in laboratori- they have made major investments in new tech- es, the development of this production is also nology. Because of that, they are leading the inn- supported by some people who want to redu- ovation process with regard to production and ce animal suffering but at the same time want they have also taken the lead when it comes to to continue to eat animal protein. However, identifying and living up to the market’s wishes the production is based on cells from animals, and brand development. Thanks to a good supp- so it is not entirely “animal-free”. Compared ly of economic capital, they invest in flexible with outdoor meat, meat that is produced in a and automated machinery that enables varied laboratory is believed to be better for the global production and reduces labour costs. Their size environment since it may imply less emission also gives them a number of economies of scale, of greenhouse gases, and fewer animals in the for example, lower operational costs and good production process means that a smaller share of opportunities to negotiate with decision-makers land is needed to produce feed. Some people and salespersons at the next stage. also believe it is safer and healthier for people to The agribusinesses that already control most eat laboratory-cultured meat because the labora- of the cheap end of the food market in Sweden tory environment means less risk of the bacteria in 2030 also see opportunities to enter the more and diseases that occur in traditional animal expensive food market. They do so by setting up husbandry and meat production. This is used by or purchasing high-tech laboratories. the laboratory companies as selling arguments to In these laboratories, technology is used to Swedish consumers who care about what they produce products that have been adapted in eat. detail to suit what wealthy customers want and The agribusinesses’ supply of resources and they are skilled in handling innovation pro- experience of handling vertical food supply cesses. One component of this production is chains increase their chances of being successful,

67 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

as long as their brand and they themselves can mental problems that agriculture has in other handle the rapid growth. In order to strengthen parts of the world (for example, long periods of their control of the market further, the agri- drought and extreme precipitation) also create businesses use their close contacts with deci- opportunities for them to take over external sion-makers and lobbying to modify demands markets. This can further increase the economies concerning organic food products and animal of scale they enjoy in Sweden’s food industry. welfare – this is not out of an altruistic desire to Because of the dominance of the agribusi- do good but as a way of tackling competition nesses, the laboratories that produce food in from local producers and family farms. Their Sweden are in a difficult situation in 2030. relatively low production costs and the environ- They have to make large capital investments or

Laboratory-cultured meat The first laboratory-cultured hamburger have a greater impact. was served in London in 2013 at a cost of Sources: £250,000. In 2015, the creators claimed that the same hamburger would have Jönsson, E. 2016. Benevolent technotopias and cost £10 if it had been on the market. hitherto unimaginable meats: Tracing the promises If laboratory-cultured protein is to be of in vitro meat. Social Studies of Science, 46(5), p. 725-748. become a reality and be produced for consumption, a number of barriers must Post, M.J. 2012. Cultured meat from stem cells: be removed, for example, production costs, Challenges and prospects. Meat Science, 2012. the ethical problem of using stem cells to 92(3): p. 297-301. produce food, and consumers’ acceptance. Solon, O. 2015. That £250,000 lab burger can now Nevertheless, laboratory-cultured meat is be grown for less than £10, claims its creator. Mirror. being seriously discussed as a possible 30.3.2015. way of replacing today’s meat production. Van der Weele, C., Driessen, C. 2013. Emerging However, it is most likely that other vege- profiles for cultured meat; ethics through and as table and animal sources of protein based design. Animals 3(3): p. 647-662. on, for example, pulses and insects will

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merge in order to be able to stay on the market By diversifying their activities, these family and retain the sector’s strong economic growth. farms are both suppliers of services and produ- Many laboratories have therefore been bought cers. up by either agribusinesses or other companies such as Google Inc. and Amazon. As acquisitions Cracks in the system in 2030 of this kind become increasingly common, the Because of resistance to antibiotics, ten times pressure on the remaining independent labora- more people die from food-related infections in tory companies increases. Those that choose to 2030 compared with 2015. As a result, Swedish remain independent have to specialise in specific decision-makers have tried to stop irresponsible protein sources and unique combinations of use of antibiotics by proposing new laws and flavour and consistency. regulations but these are voted down time and The remaining family farms that still exist in time again by the EU Commission. Sweden’s 2030 are also heading for a dismal future. They new minister of agriculture is becoming increa- know that they too are producing food that cer- singly concerned about over-production and has tain customers want but the majority of consu- therefore proposed a ceiling for certain everyday mers have a positive attitude to technology-fo- goods, but this was rejected by the EU and the cused agribusinesses and food that has been agribusinesses’ lobbyists. manufactured in laboratories. The family farms Even if the economic growth of Sweden’s that still exist need to constantly renew their food production is still acceptable, southern production and diversify their crops. However, and eastern Europe and large parts of Asia have to do that they need a supply of capital which begun to return to agricultural economies that the banks are no longer willing to give them. are characterised by self-sufficient farms. Foreign Competition and lack of demand from demand for Swedish crops and products has consumers has meant that most of the remai- therefore gone down during the 2020s. There is ning family farms focus on other things apart growing concern that massive over-production from food production. They do produce some may flood the Swedish market and cause drops food but this production is often supported by in prices, first in the market’s lower segments them also doing other work that is not related and then in the higher ones. In contrast to to farming. They try to achieve profitability by how it used to be, Swedish agricultural compa- managing nature preservation areas and offering nies have a high level of debt and they are not cultural and recreational activities to internatio- prepared for a sudden drop in demand. Should nal tourists and the domestic urban population. this happen, the banks will demand that loans be

69 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

repaid. Those who cannot pay, in particular fa- High-tech companies that cultivate food in mily farms, may then be forced to sell their land laboratories are taking advantage of the food at a loss. In order to minimise risks, the family crisis in Sweden but they are also starting to farms are opening up for share farming which feel the effects of lower demand on the export means that local consumers are tied closer to the markets. Several years of large production lines farms through partnership. The small proportion have led to lower costs but also to an excessively of well-off consumers who are interested in large supply. To counteract that, they are starting this buy seasonal shares from the farmers before to lower their prices as they strive to win market the growing season starts. They thereby commit shares from the agribusinesses, at the same time themselves to a whole season’s harvest. Consu- as they cut down on investments in new tech- mers who are willing to invest are prepared to nology and production lines. pay almost twice as much for locally produced products. This strategy means that responsibility, risks and harvests are distributed among several stakeholders. The agribusinesses’ solution to the crisis situation in food safety is marketing campaigns to convince consumers that they are taking measures against the use of antibiotics, and generous food discounts to consumers (apparently to al- leviate the food crisis but in actual fact to dump their over-production). However, the consequence of this situation is that it is hard for them to invest in future technology.

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Different solutions in an over-exploited world In a future world dominated by agribusinesses, solutions. With this perspective, it is positive high-tech companies are involved in for society that new lifestyles and jobs are production and family farms are at risk of created - in both the service and production being knocked out or forced to change foot economies - and that consumers (as a result and become suppliers of services instead. of lower food prices) will have more money Whether this is viewed as being a desirable left over to spend on other things. future situation or not depends on whose Many of today’s researchers see the perspective one takes. current patterns of foodstuff production Some people believe the future will be and consumption as being negative from tough for individual farmers and farming an environmental point of view. They also communities compared with how the situation exacerbate social problems linked to justice, is today (2016). With this perspective, the working conditions and work distribution. family farms that still exist will be under It is also difficult to create profitability in heavy competition and will operate in difficult the Swedish agricultural sector. The new working conditions in rural areas that have technology used by the agribusinesses and been abandoned and where many links to our high-tech companies could be a solution past have been severed. By today’s standards, to this. Mechanised drones and small, rural areas will be barren and will exist in the precision-focused tractors can be run on shadow of a strong urban societal norm. This solar energy and controlled by GPS. Because is regarded as being a loss for the whole of they are small, they are easy to handle and society. Other people believe that the only because they use a relatively small amount thing that is constant over time is change. of energy, they can help to reduce the total The fact that new generations of producers environmental impact of food production. For and consumers who take over after us have some people, laboratory-cultured meat does other values implies new opportunities and not only mean a future where meat can be

71 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

produced in an environmentally friendly way; this is to develop the organisation forms and it can also be made in a “humane”, nutritious distribution channels of family farms by, for and safe way. example, creating closer customer contacts through farm shops, networks for home Another way of responding to today’s situation deliveries and common farmers’ markets. could be to strive for local economies Digital platforms can be used to facilitate where producers and consumers are linked the matching of producers and consumers. closer together. Local economies can give Increasing cooperation among producers may a good overview of the environmental and also strengthen family farms while educational social effects of food production and also campaigns, recreational areas and cultural strengthen links between the populations events can stimulate an interest in local of rural and urban areas. One way of doing primary production and processing. Finally... The driving forces behind the fiercely dependency on external markets for both competitive future scenario in this story are inputs and sales, it is important to create market globalisation, harmonised legislation, preconditions so that different forms of new technology and a continuous striving for businesses can exist side by side. With a improved profitability. long-term perspective, it seems reasonable to favour a more differentiated agriculture that Most people agree that all these challenges focuses on different functions and forms of have not been handled in the right way. business. By focusing on, for example, food Because the easiest way to predict how the production and services, it may be possible future will be is to create it oneself, we feel to have an agricultural industry where both it is important that Swedish politicians and agribusinesses and family farms can develop consumers decide for themselves what sort of side by side. future they want to be part of and then work proactively to make that future a reality. To avoid the risk of a one-sided development of Swedish food production with widespread

72 Swedish agriculture 2.0

Discussion questions • Does it make any difference to you how the food you eat has been produced? Do you believe you can influence what food is produced and how it is produced? Could you imagine eating laboratory-cultured food? Why/why not? • What collective values - apart from the production of food - does Swedish agriculture contribute to? • In the future, is it more important that agriculture uses resources more efficiently, with less climate impact and making less use of animals in production than maintaining traditional agricultural activities? Does one necessarily have to exclude the other?

In this story of the future, Swedish production conditions are controlled primarily by multinational agribusinesses and decision bodies at supranational level (that is to say, the EU, WTO and UN). • Do you think these institutions are capable of controlling the development of Sweden’s food production? Try to find arguments for and against. • In such a situation, what are the risks for Swedish family farms and Sweden’s rural areas? Are there also possibilities?

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74 Self-sufficiency?

Self-sufficiency? Throughout the post-war period and up until degree of local self-sufficiency can be an the 1990s, national self-sufficiency of food effective way of using resources effectively, 3) was the basis of Sweden’s agricultural policy. as a result of a crisis preparedness measure Because of a strong market liberal turn in the within a newly formed Nordic union. early 1990s, Sweden chose to abolish the What we eat varies in the three scenarios and goal of self-sufficiency. After being a matter self-sufficiency is defined in different ways. of no interest since then, self-sufficiency with Society is also self-sufficient on different regard to food is now on the political agenda geographical scales: the EU, the Nordic again as a result of changes in security policy. region and at a more local level. In the text’s In this story, we examine situations where three alternative future scenarios, the reasons different forms of self-sufficiency could for self-sufficiency and how it is shaped are become a reality in 2030. Three different therefore different, as are the consequences scenarios are described where self- for consumers and Swedish agriculture. sufficiency has been pushed forward for different reasons: 1) as an effect of policy decisions aimed at reducing the vulnerability of food supplies within the EU, 2) for environmental policy reasons since a certain

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76 Self-sufficiency?

Scenario 1: Self-sufficiency makes the EU less vulnerable

n this scenario, EU stands strong and trade protection has therefore been abolished. In practice, within the EU is lively. Self-sufficiency here this has meant that animal welfare standards have Imeans that the EU member states jointly pro- been reduced in Sweden. Hardly any vegetables are duce the food needed to feed the people of Europe. produced in Sweden any more; they are imported Hence, the purpose of the EU’s agricultural policy from central and eastern Europe where the climate is to increase self-sufficiency to reduce the risk of is more suitable for such production and there is a disruptions to food supplies. The Western world has greater supply of labour. In southern Europe, due to a strong economic position but low ambitions when shortage of fresh water production of vegetables is it comes to climate and environmental regulations. no longer profitable. There is a global lack of resources such as land and From a resource-effectiveness point of view, the inputs (for example, phosphorus) and clean water. increased specialisation within the EU countries Basically, the EU countries have the necessa- has been beneficial – different products are being ry capacity to produce food for their people. In produced where production conditions are suitable. order to be self-sufficient with regard to inputs for However, at the same time, specialisation is leading agri-culture and to stop dependency on fossil fuels, to a less diverse agricultural landscape and a loss of the EU has invested in the production of bio-fuel biodiversity. There is also an increase in the transport and high-quality fodder protein which will repla- of food and inputs. Competition is reduced as fewer ce imported soya in animal feed. Inputs such as producers produce a certain product. Some food- phos-phorus and fuels are expensive which pushes stuffs, for example, vegetables, are becoming more food prices up. expensive as competition goes down and demand is Eating habits in Sweden have diversified even high. All EU countries, including Sweden, are beco- more between different social classes. People who ming more dependent on the EU countries being can afford to do so are able to purchase what they able to reach consensus in important agropolitical want while others have to spend a large part of their issues and the possibility of individual countries disposable income on food to able to eat a varied becoming self-sufficient is going down as a result of diet. Agriculture in Sweden is focused mainly on increased specialisation. the production of milk and cereals. The EU no longer permits national legislation that negatively affects production possibilities in the agricultural sector. Sweden’s former legislation for animal

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78 Self-sufficiency?

Scenario 2: Ambitious environmental policy lead to local self-sufficiency

n this future scenario, strict climate and en- Thanks to new technology and state invest- vironmental regulation has been implemented, ments in small-scale plants for the production of Iboth globally and within the EU. An indirect bio-energy, the manufacture of fertiliser, slaugh- effect of this is increased local self- tering, mills, packaging and processing, different sufficiency of food. Global climate policy has ma- regions in Sweden have become self-suffi- naged to steer the world onto an effective pathway cient to a large extent. Political investments in towards net zero emissions of carbon dioxide and small-scale plants is a result of strong commit- the pressure on land resources is decreasing. The ment among a large share of the population, political world order is characterised by passio- policy instruments in the form of, for example, nate commitment to the environment which is high taxes on emissions of carbon dioxide and also strongly supported by the citizens of many nutrients, and the government’s ambition to in- countries including Sweden. crease employment in agriculture and the food Technological solutions for returning phosphor- industry. Since Sweden already held a leading us and other nutrients to farmlands have been de- position in many sustainability areas when the veloped and are used extensively. Therefore, supply strict global policy to protect the environment of inputs for agriculture is relatively good and their was introduced, technology and know-how in prices are relatively low. EU governance has meant primary production, food processing and food that the energy and transport systems have trans- safety are exported to other countries. formed very rapidly. In this future, food is pro- The regional food systems in Sweden mean duced to a large extent in the region where it is that eating habits differ substantially in different consumed, especially products where transports are parts of Sweden. More meat, fish and dairy pro- a major cause of negative impact on the environ- ducts are eaten in the north compared with the ment. Local food systems make it easier to recycle rest of Sweden but also quite a lot of vegetables plant nutrients such as phosphorus and nitrogen to that are produced in resource-efficient systems farmlands which is important since the release of that use waste heat from milk farms, dairies and nitrogen and phosphorus from wastewater treat- other industries. Less milk and beef are consu- ment plants to watercourses is heavily taxed. med in the densely populated Mälardalen area.

79 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

Roots and vegetables and vegetables are pro- Tech Food Science” has become very successful duced in the cities, often in integrated systems in exports related to high-tech food produc- with fish and insect cultivation. The cultivation tion. The food that is consumed in this region beds are located in basements and on the roofs consists to a large degree of such products. of housing and office areas and are looked after Because food production has become reby companies that drive around and tend to gionalised, the range of regional products is the plots. Substantial amounts of cereals are still growing fast. Restaurants that specialise in local grown in Skåne. Fruit cultivation has increased and regional food are experiencing a major dramatically since imported fruit has become boom. Not only the traditional dishes of steak very expensive. Large amounts of apples and and breaded plaice are offered at restaurants in pears are grown and also kiwi, plums, peaches, small towns now; they also offer food handicraft nuts and many new crops that have been in- that is strongly linked to the food produced in troduced by newcomers to Sweden that have the region. Sweden now has more than 1000 previously worked in the agricultural sector. The products that are protected by EU brand protec- cultivation of pulses for human consumption, tion. many types of lentils and beans, is expanding rapidly in southern Sweden. In the region of Västra Götaland, a plant cultivated meat has been set up and in Gothenburg there are several commercial plants for the cultivation of fish, shellfish, insects, mussels, algae and microorga- nisms that are refined into attractive food products. In the Växjö region, a company called “Hi

80 Self-sufficiency?

From protected market to free trade During the post-war period right up until During the 1980s, market liberal criti- the 1990s, Sweden’s food market was cism of Sweden’s preparedness policy regulated to protect Swedish agricul- began to develop. When Sweden joined ture from international competition and the EU in 1995, the self-sufficiency thereby secure the country’s ability to goal (also known as the production goal be self-sufficient. A high degree of or the preparedness goal) was abo- self-sufficiency during peacetime was lished and Sweden has had no plans seen as being a guarantee for a high for food preparedness or stocks of food degree of self-sufficiency in wartime as or inputs since the end of the 1990s. well. Agropolitical government inquiries Finland, on the other hand, who joined came to the conclusion that between the EU at the same time, has retained 80 and 90 percent of consumption both self-sufficiency goals and prepa- must be produced in Sweden, especially redness stocks. Swedish agriculture’s important product groups such as dairy share of the total consumption of food products, cereals, animal feed, meat in Sweden has steadily decreased and certain minerals and vitamins via since Sweden joined the EU. In today’s fruit and vegetables. Substantial stocks open food market, there are no clear of food were also built up and large links between production and amount amounts of inputs for agriculture, such of consumption within a certain area. as diesel, oils, spare parts and agricultu- Therefore Sweden’s supply of food is ral chemicals, were also stored in case secured by trade on the open market. they would be needed during a crisis situation.

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82 Self-sufficiency?

Scenario 3: A Nordic union has been formed as a result of crises

n this future scenario, an acute crisis in food pulses, milk and meat and - as far as possible, supplies has arisen. China and India are inputs for the production of these items. This Istrong global players who control large parts is achieved through a combination of import of global trade and have a strong influence on regulations and subsidies to farmers. Subsidies international organisations. There is a global are given whith priority to farmers that focus shortage of goods, land and water. The EU split on local cycling of nutrients since such systems up long ago and its economic development is are more less dependent on imported goods. weak, as is Sweden’s. An armed conflict arises Nordic production is protected by common in the Baltic Sea area and Sweden and Finland external border protection in the form of im- decide to get involved for political reasons and port restrictions. For example, it is forbidden to out of solidarity. Because of the war, trading import products that have not been produced collapses and for a period of time, Sweden finds in accordance with Nordic environmental and itself in an isolated situation. Interstate trading in animal protection legislation. northern and eastern Europe collapses. As a re- In many places, land that was fallowed during sult, the Nordic states decide to form a Nordic the 20th century is now being cultivated again union. One important area for cooperation is and abandoned pasture land is now once more a common agricultural policy which includes in use. Some arable land is being used to grow common external border protection, and a will raw materials for bio-fuels which can be used to attain Nordic self-sufficiency of food. to substitute for petrol and diesel. Otherwise, Domestic supplies of food must be rapidly the cultivation of food that is directly edible built up, and also domestic supplies of fuel and for humans has priority over the cultivation of other input items. This means that agricultu- animal feed. The production of pork and chick- ral production is given high priority so as to en is decreasing while the production of beef secure the supply of food. Agricultural policy is on natural pastureland is increasing. The diet of shaped so that the Nordic countries are com- the Swedish people is based mainly on cereals, pletely self-sufficient with regard to important beans, root vegetables and eggs and supplemen- staple goods such as cereals, root vegetables, ted with dairy products and beef. In gardens

83 Agriculture in 2030 - stories of the future

and vegetable plots in towns, everyone who is The lack of a varied diet means more and more able to grows vegetables and fruit for household people are beginning to grow food for their use and many people have hens to secure the own use and also to sell on a small scale. Vegeta- household’s need for eggs and poultry meat. ble growing in towns are increased dramatically Large amounts of apples, carrots, cabbage and with vegetable plots on roofs and balconies. onions are grown, and various kinds of legu- Many small-scale, local initiatives where locals mes. Traditional root vegetables have become sell home-grown vegetables and other products popular again as a substitute for the imported are developing. Because of close cooperation vegetables. Food has become very expensive among the Nordic countries, they can niche and the range is now more limited. Coffee and their production on the products that best tea are only drunk on special occasions. Certain suit their respective environmental conditions. goods are rationed and most families have a very Sweden produces primarily cereals and milk and limited range of food that is served in the home. some meat from natural pastureland, while Nor- However, better-off families can still get hold of way sells oil and mineral fertiliser to the other most of the items they want via an expanding Nordic countries which means the shortage black market. of energy is not as great as it would have been Exotic fruit such as oranges and bananas is a otherwise. luxury item that is produced on a small scale in greenhouses on Iceland. Vegetables requiring a lot of sun and heat are becoming luxurious, seasonal items.

84 Self-sufficiency?

Discussion questions • In what situations could self-sufficiency have priority over free trade? • In what situations could a high degree of self-sufficiency be possible even if there were no explicit policy strategy to achieve it? • To what extent should food production be controlled by the market or the state? • What are the benefits of a high degree of self-sufficiency? Are there any disad- vantages? • When could self-sufficiency be resource-effective? Does this apply to all foods or only certain types of food? • To what extent should we be dependent on the import of foodstuffs and inputs for producing food in Sweden? • To what extent are we prepared to change our diet?

85 Future Agriculture is an interdisciplinary research platform at SLU (the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences), in which researchers, together with the agricultural sector, authorities and nongovernmental organisations, develop research to address the sustainable use of natural resources with emphasis on agricultural production, including farm animals, and land use.

[email protected] www.slu.se/framtidenslantbruk

SLU, the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences has activities all over Sweden. Its main locations are in Alnarp, Skara, Umeå and Uppsala.

Tel: 018-67 10 00 • Fax: 018-67 20 00 • Corp. ID no: 202100-2817