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Lake Restoration: Is There a Successful Model?

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Lake Restoration: Is There a Successful Model? Lake Ellesmere/Te Waihora Symposium Lincoln, 15-16 November 2011 Lake restoration: Is there a successful model? David Hamilton University of Waikato Photo: Warrick Powrie Lake restoration: Is there a successful model? Outline • Straight to the point – an overview of key needs for lake research/management • What are the issues globally? • A plea for models • Case studies – Rotorua lakes • So? Photo: Warrick Powrie Point 1. Ecological processes in lakes will generally not follow linear trajectories expected from linear changes in external forcings (e.g. catchment nutrient loads) Scheffer et al. (2004) Souce: www.nature.com Lake Waihola, Otago Regime shift in a eutrophic Rotorua lake Ozkundakci et al. (2010), Ecological Engineering Effects of increasing nutrients loads on chlorophyll distributions (deep lakes) Natural/low external loading Deep chlorophyll maximum c. 1% of surface light Increased external loading Surface populations, ↑ buoyant species (including N-fixers) and horizontal variability Distributions of chlorophyll: Lake Taupo Hamilton et al. 2010, Aquatic Sciences Lake Rotoiti Point 2. Reductions in external loading are fundamental to effective control of eutrophication. Diffuse sources now represent the greatest challenge to external nutrient reductions Lake Ngaroto, Waikato Point 3. Despite many years of theoretical, empirical and modelling studies, we have often failed to adequately capture and quantify nutrient loads, particularly stormloads concentrations in a stormflow event a stormflow in concentrations 3- -1 [PO4 ] and [TP] (mg L ) 0.05 0.15 0.25 0.1 0.2 0.3 0 Changes in phosphorus in Changes 1/08/2010 13:40 16:40 19:40 22:40 1:40 2/08/2010 4:40 7:40 10:40 14:20 PO 17:20 4 20:20 3 - 23:20 phosphorus 2:20 Total Total 3/08/2010 5:20 8:20 11:20 16:50 19:50 22:50 4/08/2010 1:50 4:50 7:50 10:50 University of Waikato Abell Jonathan ‘Old age’ groundwater to Rotorua Hamurana 110 yr Ngongataha 16 yr Awahou 61 yr Waiowhero 42 yr Point 4. Opportunities exist to virtually revolutionise temporal and spatial coverage of lake ecosystems but require lake ecologists to adopt increasingly flexible, interdisciplinary communication linkages that may not necessarily initially be fully productive. …in the old days on Ellesmere New tools to study lakes: remote-sensing - high-frequency data - computer modelling Mat Allan, Waikato University Current Projects: 25 lakes Physical variability in temperate lakes: A global analysis of high- frequency instrumented buoy data from 25 temperate lakes. Science and communication “Scientists can be most effective if they make their results accessible to interested laypersons” Ludwig, D. 2001. The era of management is over Ecosystems 4: 758-764 So…to lakes across the globe Lake Taihu P.R. China Taihu Algal bloom evolution in Lake Taihu 1950 1970 1980 1987 1994 2000 Big problem…expensive solution? Lake Tahoe, California, USA Charles Goldman UC Davis Transparency in Lake Tahoe Secchi depth in m Charles Goldman, UC Davis Obvious culprits in loss of transparency Air pollution: A major cause of loss of water transparency in Lake Tahoe Charles Goldman, UC Davis Lake Mendota, Madison, Wisconsin, USA Ice cover in Lake Mendota: Characterised by discontinuities Ice Duration 160 140 120 100 Days 80 Ice Cover Ice Cover (Days) 60 40 1855 1875 1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1998 DroughtDrought in Australia: 2008 Response to drought at Milang, Lake Alexandrina Oct 2006 Jan 2008 Floods and drought in Australia: 2010 From drought to flood: unprecedented rainfall in eastern Australia http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01797/australia-flood_1797071b.jpg Lake Kinneret, Israel (c. 40% of Israel’s drinking water) Water level (m) level Water Denmark: the challenge of non-point source pollution Source: Erik Jeppesen Diffuse pollution – perhaps the most difficult case “When an issue becomes highly controversial when it is surrounded by uncertainties and conflicting values… there are experts for the affirmative and experts for the negative. We cannot settle such issues…” Simon HA. 1983. Reason in human affairs. Stanford University Press. Polarisation… • Economism is the placing of an exceptional and inordinate emphasis upon economic values in contradistinction to all others • Scientism is the belief that science…is inherently capable of solving almost all human problems. • Technocracy represents an effort to achieve policy solutions by recourse to technological innovation or through what is sometimes called a "technological fix." Caldwell LK. 1990. Between two worlds: science, the environ-mental movement and policy choice. Cambridge University Press. And for Te Waihora… even more difficult • Nutrients • Mahinga kai • Water level regimes • Climate change • Wind and sediments Rotorua lakes’ Technical Advisory Group “If you don‟t deliver then our people will be planning and writing policy without your science input” “I need the science to record our on-ground restoration efforts” You won‟t get it [the science] 100% but it will be necessary to use it for our policies and plans Delevan Lake, Wisconsin, USA Lake Delevan, Wisconsin, USA Inlet extension Rotenone application, Delevan Lake Rotenone application effects, Delevan Lake Internal Loading Near Bottom Total Phosphorus Concentrations 1.2 1.0 198319831983 1984 19841984 0.8 1985 19851985 19851986 198619871986 19861987 0.6 19871988 198719891988 1994 1988 1990 19881989 19891991 0.4 1990 1993 19891992 19901991 19901993 19911992 Total P Concentrations, mg/L Concentrations,P Total Total P Concentrations, mg/L Concentrations, P Total Total P Concentrations, mg/L Concentrations, P Total Total P Concentrations, mg/L Concentrations, P Total 1994 0.2 19921992 197219721972 19911991 0.0 AprilApril MayMay JuneJune JulyJuly AugustAugust SeptSept OctOct NovNov Alum application Lake Delevan Annual P Loading to Delavan Lake 10 9 8 7 6 5 PLoad (t) PLoad 4 3 2 1 0 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 The challenge to scientists “...the reason we expect so little from science is that we have not yet realized that our job is to predict and not to describe. We have not yet come face-to-face with our failure to do effective ecological science” ...Rigler and Peters (1995) Case study of potential effects of climate change on three NZ lakes N Lake Rotoehu Lake Rotoiti Lake Rotorua Te Waihora Lake Rotoma (Lake Ellesmere) 10 km Lake Okataina Lake Okareka Lake Tarawera Lake Tikitapu Lake Rotokakahi Lake Rotomahana Lake Okaro Lake Rerewhakaaitu 10 km Lake Max depth (m) Trophic state Okareka 33.5 Mesotrophic Rotoehu 13.5 Eutrophic Te Waihora (Ellesmere) 2.5 Highly eutrophic PredictingScenario effects of simulationschanging nutrient load and/or climate on chlorophyll a 30 Plus 50% Year 2100 Year 2100 plus 50% 25 Relative Relative to 20 Day a - 15 Present 10 % Change Change Chl % in 5 0 Okareka Rotoehu Te Waihora Trolle, D, D. Hamilton, C. Pilditch, I. Duggan, E. Jeppesen (2011). Predicting the effects of climate change on trophic status of three morphologically varying lakes: Implications for lake restoration and management. Environmental Modelling.& Software Managing for resilience to blooms in a changing climate “Increasing nutrients and temperatures have a synergistic effect on cyanobacterial blooms, but only when nutrient levels are high. Ultimately nutrients are the primary factor influencing bloom formation” Clearwater Lake near Sudbury, Canada A ‘reversing’ temperature in Clearwater Lake 24 22 C) o 20 Surface 18 16 14 12 Bottom 10 Y = 497 - 0.245 X 8 2 Mid-summer Mid-summer temperature ( r = =0.73, P<0.001 6 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Tanentzap et al., Limnology & Oceanography And they’re using our models where? Lake Constance, Germany Lake Wivenhoe, Queensland Lake Mead, Nevada Slide 57 Timelines for applying models years before present years into future Present -1 -2 10000 100 10 1 10 10 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 } } } } } } Hindcasting Hindcasting Hindcasting Forecasting: Simulation: Prediction: - past climate recent human for detailed - response to - lake - future climate -past land-use disturbance: temporal weather management -future land use - understanding forecast strategies eutrophication, : - algal bloom - extreme - invasive - material likelihood/ events species, fluxes -fate (weather, - pollutant fate - transport storms) - testing theory Levels of complexity for model applications Van Nes, E. and M. Scheffer, 2005. A strategy to improve the contribution of complex simulation models to ecological theory. Ecological Modelling 185: 153-164. The science essential to assist management at the ecosystem level will be by those that connect the disciplinary science (“join the dots”) Seasonality of nutrient limitation Box Plot of multiple variables grouped by Month Rotorua_model_output_nutrient_limitation_function 9v*2922c Median; Box: 25%-75%; Whisker: Non-Outlier Range 1.0 0.8 0.6 f(P,N) 0.4 Cyanobacteria f(P) 0.2 Box Plot of multiple variables grouped by Month f(N) Rotorua_model_output_nutrient_limitation_function 9v*2922c 0.0 7 8 Median;9 10 Box: 25%-75%;11 12Whisker:1 Non-Outlier2 Range3 4 5 6 1.0 Month f(P) 0.8 f(N) 0.6 Diatoms f(P,N) 0.4 0.2 Box Plot of multiple variables grouped by Month Rotorua_model_output_nutrient_limitation_function 9v*2922c 0.0 Median; Box: 25%-75%; Whisker: Non-Outlier Range 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 1.0 Month 0.8 0.6 Chlorophytes f(P,N) 0.4 f(P) 0.2 f(N) 0.0 J7 A8 S9 O10 N11 D12 J1 F2 M3 A4 M5 J6 Source: Deniz Özkundakci Month And to New Zealand lakes NZ has some of the most „oligotrophic‟, but also the highly eutrophic lakes in the world Whakaneke, Waikare, Waiporohita, Rotorua (SI), Ellesmere Hawea, Coleridge, Pukaki, Benmore, Tekapo, Sumner, Ohau Abell, Özkundakci, Hamilton n = 2200, c. 40 countries + NZ Lake Rotorua – a history of water quality issues Phytoplankton species change along trophic gradients Lake Rotoma Lake Rotorua Photo: D. Trolle Wendy Paul University of Waikato 1000 800 600 400 mg-N/m3 .
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