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Liberalization and Political Violence in the Arab World

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Liberalization and Political Violence in the Arab World THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. 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RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. More Freedom, Less Terror? Liberalization and Political Violence in the Arab World Dalia Dassa Kaye, Frederic Wehrey, Audra K. Grant, Dale Stahl C O R P O R A T I O N This report results from the RAND Corporation's continuing program of self-initiated independent research. Support for such research is provided, in part, by donors and by the independent research and development provisions of RAND's contracts for the operation of its U.S. Department of Defense federally funded research and development centers. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data More freedom, less terror? : liberalization and political violence in the Arab world / Dalia Dassa Kaye ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4508-9 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Democratization—Arab countries—Case studies. 2. Political violence—Arab countries—Case studies. 3. Arab countries—Politics and government. 4. Terrorism—Arab countries. I. Kaye, Dalia Dassa. JQ1850.A91M67 2008 363.3250917'4927—dc22 2008031591 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2008 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2008 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface In 2003, President Bush lamented, “Sixty years of Western nations excusing and accommodating the lack of freedom in the Middle East did nothing to make us safe,” transforming democracy promotion into a national security priority. According to this logic, America must pro- mote democracy as an antidote to terrorism; democracy promotion could no longer be relegated to obscure bureaus of the U.S. govern- ment. After 9/11 revealed the threats posed by extremism emanating from the Middle East, the Bush administration, and indeed many across the political spectrum, no longer considered democracy in the Arab world a luxury. To be sure, the destabilizing events that have unfolded in Iraq and the broader region since 2003 have led to a backlash against democracy promotion in the Middle East, and to some extent, against the United States as well. Moreover, democracy promotion never secured a very high level of support or resources from the U.S. administration even at the height of its popularity. But given the prominent role of democ- racy promotion in the broader U.S. strategy for the Middle East, it is curious that so little research has empirically explored the relationship between democracy and terrorism. Our study is an attempt to fill this gap, examining six Arab cases in depth. Rather than ask whether democracy can stop terrorism, we explore how liberalization processes can influence calculations regard- ing political violence in various domestic contexts (recognizing that there are no democracies, and arguably no genuine democratization processes, in the Arab world today). Has the introduction of politi- iii iv More Freedom, Less Terror? cal reforms into the Arab Middle East alleviated terrorism and violent extremism? If so, in what ways and under what conditions? If not, why? Can the reversal of reforms and a return to repressive policies increase the risk of terrorism over time? In short, what are the effects of liber- alization processes on the resort to political violence—immediate and delayed—in this critical area of the world? This work should be of value to members of security policy commu- nities in the United States and abroad as well as regional experts focusing specifically on the Middle East. Academic researchers and instructors may also find the study useful, as should the nongovernmental research and policy communities. Comments are welcome and should be directed to the lead author, Dalia Dassa Kaye ([email protected]). This report results from the RAND Corporation’s continuing pro- gram of self-initiated independent research. Support for such research is provided, in part, by donors and by the independent research and development provisions of RAND’s contracts for the operation of its U.S. Department of Defense federally funded research and develop- ment centers. This research was conducted within the RAND National Secu- rity Research Division (NSRD) of the RAND Corporation. NSRD conducts research and analysis for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Commands, the defense agencies, the Department of the Navy, the U.S. Intelligence Community, allied foreign governments, and foundations. For more information on the RAND National Security Research Division, contact the Director of Operations, Nurith Berstein. She can be reached by email at [email protected]; by phone at (703) 413-1100, extension 5469; or by mail at RAND, 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington VA 22202-5050. More information about the RAND Corporation is available at www.rand.org. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Table ................................................................................ xi Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowledgments ............................................................xxvii Abbreviations ...................................................................xxix CHAPTER ONE “Democracy” and Terrorism in the Arab World: A Framework for Analysis ................................................................... 1 Introduction ........................................................................ 1 Democracy in the Middle East: “Liberalized Autocracies” or Genuine Democratization? ............................................................. 4 Understanding Terrorism ........................................................11 The Democracy-Terrorism Debate ..............................................12 Post-9/11 “Draining the Swamp” Logic ......................................12 The Democracy Backlash ......................................................16 Democracy-Terrorism Hypotheses ........................................... 24 Empirical Application to the Arab World: Case Selection and Methods ...................................................................... 26 CHAPTER TWO Egypt ...............................................................................29 Introduction .......................................................................29 Liberalization in the Mubarak Era ..............................................29 Trends in Violent Activity ....................................................... 38 v vi More Freedom, Less Terror? Comparing Levels of Freedom and Terrorism ................................ 44 Assessing Effects .................................................................. 46 Repression and Destabilization ..................................................52 Conclusion .........................................................................53 CHAPTER THREE Jordan ..............................................................................59 Liberalization Trends ...........................................................
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