Industrial Data ISSN: 1560-9146 ISSN: 1810-9993 [email protected] Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos Perú

Paz Panduro, David IMPACT OF DIGITAL NEWSPAPERS ON ELECTORAL VOTE Industrial Data, vol. 22, no. 2, 2019, July- Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos Perú

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15381/idata.v22i2.16248

Available in: https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=81662532015

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IRevistampact of dIndustrialigital newspapers Data on 22(2): electoral 185-198 voter (2019) ISSN: 1560-9146 (Impreso) / ISSN: 1810-9993 (Electrónico) DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15381/idata.v22i2.16248 Facultad de Ingeniería Industrial - UNMSM

Impact of digital newspapers on electoral vote

David Paz Panduro 1

Received: 11/06/2019 Accepted: 07/08/2019

INTRODUCTION

ABSTRACT There is a problem of perception in . According to the survey The purpose of this article is to demonstrate that the by CPI mentioned in the newspaper El Comercio (2014, August appearance of political candidates in digital newspapers 26), political parties are corrupt; the APRA, Perú Posible and has a positive correlation with electoral vote. The indicator of the independent variable used is the number of news Fuerza Popular are the political parties that obtained the highest stories in the digital press in which political candidates percentage of the answer to the question “Which political party appear; whereas the indicator of the dependent variable is the most corrupt?”. According to the survey by El Comercio is the percentage of the electoral vote obtained by the (2018, April 22) and Ipsos Perú, corruption now tops the list of political candidates. The electoral process analyzed was the 2018 Metropolitana Municipal Election. problems in the country. This situation had not been seen since In addition, the Google search engine was used, where 2010, during the second Aprista administration. Peru has moved the basic command (search operator) site was used to down in the global corruption perception ranking as one of the search the websites of 19 Peruvian digital newspapers most corrupt countries in the world and shares 105th place with El for the appearances of candidates in a semi-manual way. Finally, it was concluded that digital newspapers Salvador, East Timor and Zambia (El Comercio, 2019, January have a very strong correlation with electoral vote, as the 29). Although the official name of 2019 in Peru is “Year of the fi- Spearman’s rho coefficient obtained was 0.933. ght against corruption and impunity”, the perception in the minds Keywords: Digital marketing; electoral vote; political of Peruvians is the issue of this study. marketing; digital political marketing. The following lines intend to show how digital newspapers, which are digital marketing tools, are associated with electoral marke- ting tools, in other words, with the results at the ballot box, which are the final judgment given by a people on political candidates and the parties that support them. Therefore, the contribution of this study is to demonstrate, statistically, that digital newspapers are associated with electoral vote and to identify which indicator shows this correlation.

This article was prepared to assist political parties in the elabora- tion of their marketing strategies; therefore, this research has a Business to Business (B2B) approach, considering the author as a company that offers this information to political parties, which are currently run as private companies. Thus, political campaign managers (project managers) will be able to orientate their stra- tegies to increase the indicators that are correlated with vote at the ballot box, as it is demonstrated that if these indicators in- crease, electoral vote increases as well.

1 Industrial Engineer from the Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. He is currently head of Multiservicios Paz Panduro S. A. C. (Lima). E-mail: [email protected]

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In his book Historia de la corrupción en el Perú can only be modified by those in charge of mana- (2013), Peruvian historian Alfonso Quiroz mentions ging the campaign of political candidates. various historical figures who fought against illega- lity, noteworthy among which are Antonio de Ulloa, Similarly, according to Tamayo (2003): Domingo Elías and Manuel Gonzáles Prada (El Co- mercio, 2019, January 11). Through digital newspa- A la investigación aplicada se le denomina pers, it will be possible to show the electorate that también activa o dinámica, y se encuen- political parties have returned to their roots and tra íntimamente ligada a la anterior, ya que have been inspired by modernity. It will also prove depende de sus descubrimientos y apor- that their values are still strong, that there are lea- tes teóricos. Busca confrontar la teoría con ders like these anti-illegality fighters, that the politi- la realidad. Es el estudio y aplicación de la cal institution is above the mistakes of the presiden- investigación a problemas concretos, en cir- tial candidates, who ultimately are only leaders that cunstancias y características concretas. Esta can be replaced and that the ideology of the party forma de investigación se dirige a su apli- can be preserved, which is important. cación inmediata y no al desarrollo de teo- rías. [Applied research is also called active Political marketing has been used in several pre- or dynamic research and it is closely related sidential campaigns around the world with positive to the former, as it depends on its discove- results. Political campaigns around the world are ries and theoretical contributions. It aims at designing “estrategias en las que los electores son comparing theory against practice. It is the analizados como consumidores, sus preferencias, study and application of research to specific sus necesidades también, su personalidad y sus problems in specific circumstances and cha- valores son convertidos en estadísticas que per- racteristics. This type of research is intended miten a un grupo de orientadores políticos ofrecer for its immediate application, instead of the un producto deseable, una idea o un candidato que development of theories.] (p. 43) responda a la demanda de los electores” [strategies This is an applicative research study, since it is in which voters are analyzed as consumers, their oriented to solve problems, to its immediate appli- preferences, needs, personality and values are tur- cation; it is also correlational, because it will measu- ned into statistics that allow a group of political ad- re the degree of statistical correlation between the visors to offer a desirable product, an idea or candi- political marketing tool and electoral vote. date that responds to the demand of voters] (Daza, 2010, pp. 9-10). The research will also have quantitative characte- ristics. In that respect, Bernal (2010) defines that: METHODOLOGY [El] método cuantitativo o método tradicional Monje (2011) states that “cuando el objetivo prin- se fundamenta en la medición de las carac- cipal del investigador es comprender el comporta- terísticas de los fenómenos sociales, lo cual miento humano en contextos naturales, el diseño supone derivar de un marco conceptual per- será de manera inevitable no experimental o de tinente al problema analizado, una serie de carácter observacional” [when the main objective postulados que expresen relaciones entre of the researcher is to understand human beha- las variables estudiadas de forma deductiva. vior in natural contexts, the design will inevitably be Este método tiende a generalizar y norma- non-experimental or observational] (p. 24). Likewi- lizar resultados. [[The] quantitative or tradi- se, Hernández et al. (2010) define “investigación no tional method is based on the measurement experimental como estudios que se realizan sin la of the characteristics of social phenomena, manipulación deliberada de variables y en los que which implies deducing a series of postulates solo se observan los fenómenos en su ambiente that express relationships between the varia- natural para después analizarlos” [non-experimen- bles studied in a deductive way from a con- tal research as studies that are conducted without ceptual framework relevant to the problem the deliberate manipulation of variables and in analyzed.] (p. 60) which phenomena are observed only in their natural environment and then analyzed] (p. 149). Therefo- The approach is hypothetical-deductive, because it re, this research has a non-experimental design, as intends to develop a theory. First, basic hypotheses the research variables are not manipulated and the are formulated, and then their consequences are appearances of candidates in digital newspapers deduced with the help of the underlying formal theo- ries (Tamayo, 2003). The hypothesis of this study is

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that correlation exists between digital newspapers obedecen a otros criterios de investigación. and electoral vote, which has been validated by [In non-probability samples, the selection of means of inferential statistical techniques. items does not depend on probability, but on causes related to the characteristics of the Unit of analysis research or on who takes the sample. Here the procedure is neither mechanical nor ba- The object of study is the 2018 Lima Metropolita- sed on probability formulas, but depends on na municipal electoral process, in Lima (Peru). The the decision-making process of a researcher presence of political candidates in digital newspa- or a group of researchers and, of course, the pers who are vying for the office of mayor will be selected samples that follow other research analyzed, as well as the relationship of this presen- criteria.] (Hernández et al., 2010, p. 176) ce with the electoral vote they achieved in the pro- cess. The sample of digital newspapers selected for this study consisted of the following nineteen digital Study population newspapers: altavoz.pe, americatv.com.pe, andi- na.pe, atv.pe, canaln.pe, capital.com.pe, elcomer- For this research, all the candidates participating cio.pe, diariocorreo.pe, elpopular.pe, enlinea.pe, in the 2018 Lima Metropolitana Municipal Election have been chosen as the population. In addition, exitosanoticias.pe, expreso.com.pe, gestion.pe, this process was chosen because it is the most re- larepublica.pe, panamericana.pe, peru21.pe, rpp. cent in Peru and because, according to information pe, trome.pe and wayka.pe. The newspapers were in the INEI press release (2018, March 27), 32.9% chosen on the basis of Google Alerts reports, where of Peruvians and 56.7% of the citizens of Lima Me- they appeared mentioning the political candidates tropolitana accessed the Internet in the first half of competing for the office of mayor for Lima Metropo- 2018; in other words, more than half of the voters litana in the final part of the electoral process. had access to the Internet. Data collection techniques

Sample size The study mainly used systematic observation and The sample to demonstrate the relationship be- statistical testing. In addition, to analyze the num- tween the Appearances of political candidates in ber of appearances of political candidates in digital digital newspapers and Electoral vote is comprised newspapers in the last days of the Lima Metropo- of the nine candidates to the office of mayor: Ren- litana municipal election campaign, Google Alerts zo Reggiardo, Daniel Urresti, Ricardo Belmont, Luis was used, given that it provides all mentions of the Castañeda Pardo, Jorge Muñoz, , Es- keywords (in this case, the names of the nine can- ther Capuñay, and Enrique Cor- didates) entered by a user. These appearances on nejo. the Internet were obtained close to the day of the municipal election (from September 23 to October Sample selection 6, 2018, after the municipal debate). Nineteen di- gital newspapers were selected using this informa- Non-probability sampling was used in this research, tion. since the candidates for the analysis have been se- lected considering their chances of winning the offi- Then, to tabulate the number of news stories per ce of mayor, instead of in a random way. Similarly, digital newspaper that mentions each of the political the vote of the candidates selected for this study candidates, Google’s search engine was used using covers 81.55% of the electoral vote, that is to say, it the basic command site (search operator), which is a judgment sample (Weiers, 1986). searches a particular term or keyword in websites. In this case, it made it possible to search for politi- En las muestras no probabilísticas, la elec- cal candidates’ appearances in the news stories on ción de los elementos no depende de la each website of the selected digital newspapers. probabilidad, sino de causas relacionadas con las características de la investigación o Then, in order to obtain the number of news stories de quien hace la muestra. Aquí el procedi- from digital newspapers that mention a candidate, miento no es mecánico ni con base en fór- care was taken not to duplicate the news and a mulas de probabilidad, sino que depende semi-manual counting was performed. In a similar del proceso de toma de decisiones de un in- manner, only the most relevant results of the Goo- vestigador o de un grupo de investigadores gle search were used in the analysis, omitting very y, desde luego, las muestras seleccionadas similar entries.

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The vote count obtained by the political candidates Metropolitana 2018 appear was obtained from the studied was acquired from the ONPE website on sample of nineteen digital newspapers (see Table 1). November 2, 2018. Correlation between indicators Appearances DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION of political candidates in the digital press and Electoral vote for the 2018 Lima Metropolitana For data processing, the research study relies on Municipal Election the software built to execute basic and advanced First, it must be established whether indicators statistical functions: Minitab. Microsoft Excel was Appearances of political candidates in the digital also used for charts and other personalized gra- press and Electoral vote for the 2018 Lima Metropo- phics. In addition, books by Levin and Rubin (2004) litana Municipal Election have a normal distribution. and Webster (2000) were consulted for the interpre- Thus, the following hypotheses are proposed: tation of statistics results, along with Minitab. Null hypothesis no. 1: Electoral vote for 2018 the RESULTS Y DISCUSSION Lima Metropolitana Municipal Election is normally distributed. It will be demonstrated that the independent varia- ble Appearances of political candidates in the digi- Alternative hypothesis A1: Electoral vote for the tal press is statistically correlated, at a high degree, 2018 Lima Metropolitana Municipal Election is not with the dependent variable Electoral vote for the normally distributed. 2018 Lima Metropolitana Municipal Election. Null hypothesis no. 2: Indicator Appearances of po- The number of news stories in which the political litical candidates in the digital press and Number of candidates competing for the office of mayor for Lima news stories where political candidates appear in

Table 1. Indicator of Appearances of political candidates for the 2018 Lima Metropolitana Municipal Election in digital newspapers. Number of news stories where political candidates appear in the Candidate Electoral vote (%) digital press Jorge Muñoz 36.03 781 Daniel Urresti 19.69 1340 8.87 1019 Alberto Beingolea 4.46 327 Ricardo Belmont Cassinelli 3.89 706 Pardo 2.58 303 Esther Capuñay 2.04 207 Enrique Cornejo 2.01 203 Humberto Lay 1.98 158 Source: Prepared by the author.

Table 2. Saphiro-Wilk normality test for Electoral vote for the 2018 Lima Metropolitana Municipal Election and for Number of news stories where political candidates appear in the digital press for the 2018 Lima Metropolitana Municipal Election. Normality tests Kolmogorov-Smirnova Shapiro-Wilk Statistic df Sig. Statistic df Sig. Electoral vote (%) 0.321 9 0.008 0.691 9 0.001 Number of news stories where political candidates appear in the digital 0.266 9 0.067 0.870 9 0.122 press a: Lilliefors significance correction. Source: Prepared by the author.

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the digital press for the 2018 Lima Metropolitana normalmente distribuidos o tienen categorías Municipal Election are distributed normally. ordenadas, seleccione la tau-b de Kendall o de Spearman, que miden la asociación entre Alternative hypothesis A2: Indicator Appearances of órdenes de rangos. [For the normally distri- political candidates in the digital press and Number buted quantitative variables, select Pearson’s of news stories where political candidates appea- correlation coefficient. If the data is not nor- red on the digital press for Lima 2018 Metropolitana mally distributed or has ordered categories, Municipal Election are not normally distributed. select Kendall or Spearman’s tau-b, which measure the association between order ran- The Saphiro-Wilk normality test was used as re- ges.] (p. 207) commended by Guillén (2015), who mentions that “debemos tener presente que se usa Kolgomorov Whereas Guillén (2015) states the following: Smirnov porque la muestra es mayor a 50, de no ser así se usa Shapiro Wilk” [we must keep in mind El coeficiente de correlación de Spearman that the Kolgomorov Smirnov test is used when the es una técnica no paramétrica. El coeficiente sample is greater than 50, otherwise Saphiro-Wilk is de correlación de Spearman denotado por rs used] (p. 88) and by Milton (2001), who emphasizes se utiliza cuando alguna de las variables es that “el test de Shapiro-Wilk es adecuado cuando ordinal o incluso dicotómica o para variables hay pocos datos” [the Saphiro-Wilk test is appro- cuantitativas con muestras pequeñas, es de- priate when there is little data] (p. 640). cir, en el caso del coeficiente de Spearman, se utilizan los rangos de los valores en lu- Therefore, from the SPSS report observed in Table gar de los valores originales, por lo tanto, es 2, the p-value for Electoral vote for the 2018 Lima adecuado para muestras pequeñas puesto Metropolitana Municipal Election has a level of sig- que es robusto a la presencia de «outliers» nificance of less than 0.05. In that regard, the null (valores extremos). [Spearman’s correlation hypothesis is rejected in the first case (no. 1) and coefficient is a nonparametric technique. The the first alternative hypothesis (A1), Electoral vote Spearman correlation coefficient, denoted by for the 2018 Lima Metropolitana Municipal Election rs, is used when any of the variables is ordi- is not normally distributed, is accepted. nal or even dichotomous or for quantitative variables with small samples, i.e., in the case The p-value for Number of news stories where politi- of Spearman’s coefficient, ranges of values cal candidates appear in the digital press has a level are used instead of the original values, there- of significance greater than 0.05. Consequently, the fore it is appropriate for small samples since null hypothesis in the second case (no. 2) is accep- it is robust to the presence of “outliers” (extre- ted and the second alternative hypothesis (A2) is me values).] (p. 79) rejected. Thus, the Number of news stories where political candidates appear in the digital press and Accordingly, in order to establish whether there is the indicator of variable Appearances of political can- correlation between these two variables, it is appro- didates in the digital press are normally distributed. priate to use Spearman’s correlation, as one of the variables does not meet the normality criteria Regarding the correlation coefficients, Pérez (2001) (Webster, 2000). states as follows: Null hypothesis: Number of news stories where Para las variables cuantitativas, normalmen- political candidates appear in the digital press and te distribuidas, seleccione el coeficiente de Electoral vote for the 2018 Lima Metropolitana Mu- correlación de Pearson. Si los datos no están nicipal Election are not statistically correlated.

Table 3. Spearman’s correlation between Number of news stories where political candidates appear in the digital press and Electora vote for 2018 Lima Metropolitana Municipal Election. Spearman’s rho: Number of news stories where political candidates appear in the digital press and Electoral vote for 2018 Lima Metropolitana Municipal Election (%) Correlations Spearman’s rho 0.933 p-value 0.000 Source: Prepared by the author.

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Alternative hypothesis: Number of news stories CONCLUSIONS where political candidates appear in the digital press are distributed normally and Electoral vote for Digital newspapers are highly correlated (very strong the 2018 Lima Metropolitana Municipal Election are correlation) with electoral vote; this association has statistically correlated been demonstrated with the indicator Number of news stories where political candidates appear in the From Table 3 it can be observed that the indicators digital press and the results of the election. Appearances of political candidates in the digital press and Number of news stories where political In addition, this result has been demonstrated for candidates appear in the digital press are correlated the 2018 Lima Metropolitana Municipal Election, with Electoral vote for the 2018 Lima Metropolitana and it can be said that the journalistic coverage of Municipal Election. In addition, Spearman’s rho is certain candidates by news companies will be as- 0.933 and the p-value is 0.000, lower than the sig- sociated with the electoral vote obtained by those nificance level; in other words, correlation between candidates. For example, it can be seen that the the mentioned variables is significant. Therefore, appearances made by the electoral campaign of the null hypothesis is rejected and the alternative candidate Humberto Lay in the press were very hypothesis mentioned above is accepted. few and that he was one of the candidates with the According to the interpretation table of the most lowest electoral vote on election day. common correlation values (Pearson & Spearman) It is important to note that the press—particular- presented by Akoglu (2018), a correlation with a co- ly, the digital press—could shape public opinion. rrelation value greater than 0.7 is very strong. For this reason, the press has been identified as the fourth power of the State; in this research, said RESULTS power, is again, evident. There is a clear association Figure 1 shows, using bars, the p-value obtained between media coverage and the decision made by and the Spearman’s correlation coefficient between the people at the ballot box. variables Number of news where the political candi- dates appear in the digital press and Electoral vote REFERENCES for the 2018 Lima Metropolitana Municipal Election. As already mentioned, these values indicate a very [1] Akoglu, H. (2018). User’s guide to correlation high correlation between the two variables, which coefficients. Turkish Journal of Emergency demonstrate the hypothesis of this research study. Medicine, 18(3), 91-93.

Figure 1. Correlation result between Appearances of political candidates in the digital and Electoral vote for the 2018 Lima Metropolitana Municipal Election. Source: Prepared by the author.

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[2] Bernal, C. (2010). Metodología de la [9] Hernández, R.; Fernández, C. y Baptista, P. investigación. Bogotá, Colombia: Pearson (2010). Metodología de la investigación. México, Educación. D. F., México: McGraw-Hill / Interamericana Editores S. A. [3] Daza, C. (2010). Análisis de las estrategias de marketing político de Álvaro Uribe Vélez [10] INEI (27 de marzo del 2018). Aumentan hogares durante sus campañas electorales de 2002 que tienen servicio de internet de octubre a y 2006 y durante el ejercicio de su gobierno diciembre de 2017. Recuperado de https:// presidencial en Colombia. (Tesis de maestría). www.inei.gob.pe/prensa/noticias/aumentan- Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogotá. hogares-que-tienen-servicio-de-internet-de- octubre-a-diciembre-de-2017-10671/. [4] El Comercio (26 de agosto del 2014). ¿Qué [11] Levin, R y Rubin, D. (2014). Estadística para partido es considerado el más corrupto en el Administración y Economía. México, D. F., Perú? Recuperado de https://elcomercio.pe/ México: Pearson Educación. politica/partidos/partido-considerado-corrupto- peru-356463. [12] Milton, J. (2001). Estadística para Biología y Ciencias de la Salud. Madrid, España: [5] El Comercio (22 de abril del 2018). La McGraw-Hill / Interamericana Editores S. A. corrupción, el principal problema del Perú. Recuperado de https://elcomercio.pe/ [13] Monje, C. (2011). Metodología de la politica/corrupcion-principal-problema-peru- investigación cuantitativa y cualitativa. Neiva, noticia-513999. Colombia: Universidad Surcolombiana. [6] El Comercio (11 de enero del 2019). Los ilustres [14] ONPE (2 de noviembre del 2018). ONPE publica peruanos que lucharon contra la corrupción en resultados de Lima al 100%. Recuperado de http://www.onpe.gob.pe/sala-prensa/notas- el Perú. Recuperado de https://elcomercio. prensa/onpe-publica-resultados-lima-al-100/. pe/luces/libros/impreso-ilustres-peruanos- lucharon-corrupcion-peru-noticia-596624. [15] Pérez, C. (2001). Técnicas estadísticas con SPSS. Madrid, España: Prentice Hall. [7] El Comercio (29 de enero del 2019). El Perú mantiene un alto índice de percepción de [16] Tamayo, M. (2003). El proceso de la corrupción. Recuperado de https://elcomercio. investigación científica. México, D. F., México: pe/politica/peru-mantiene-alto-indice- Limusa-Noriega Editores. percepcion-corrupcion-noticia-602105. [17] Webster, A. (2000). Estadística aplicada a los [8] Guillén, O. (2015). Guía de SPSS 22 para negocios y la economía. Bogotá, Colombia: elaboración de trabajos de investigación McGraw-Hill / Interamericana Editores S. A. científica. Málaga, España: Universidad de los [18] Weiers, R. (1986). Investigación de mercados. Pueblos de Europa. México, D. F., México: Prentice Hall.

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