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Knudedybs Tidevandsområde Morfologisk Udviklingi Vadehavet Knudedybs Tidevandsområde Knudedybs Tidevandsområde Eeee O Klagenberg, P

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Knudedybs Tidevandsområde Morfologisk Udviklingi Vadehavet Knudedybs Tidevandsområde Knudedybs Tidevandsområde Eeee O Klagenberg, P Morfologisk udvikling i Vadehavet Knudedybs tidevandsområde Knudedybs tidevandsområde Gr. 150-69-03 Projekt Vadehavet- klimaændringer Startdato Oktober 2007 Slutdato Oktober 2008 Projektansvarlig Carl-Christian Munk-Nielsen (PA) Projektleder (PL) Carlo Sørensen Projektmedarbej- Peter Alfred Klagenberg dere (PM) Søren Bjerre Knudsen Carlo Sørensen Per Sørensen Irene Andersen Signe Marie Ingvardsen Jens Bech Jørgensen Birgit Byskov Kloster Timeregistrering 07141 Rapport Morfologisk udvikling i Vadehavet Knudedybs tidevandsområde Forfattere Peter Alfred Klagenberg Søren Bjerre Knudsen Carlo Sørensen Per Sørensen Nøgleord Vadehavet, Knudedyb, Sediment- budget, Klimaændring Distribution www.kyst.dk, Transportministeriet, www.dab.dk/anmeld.asp Refereres som Klagenberg, P. A.; Knudsen, S.B.; Sørensen, C. og Sørensen, P., 2008. Morfologisk udvikling i Vadehavet, Knudedybs tidevandsområde. Kystdirektoratet. 72s. Knudedybs tidevandsområde 2 Resumé Klagenberg, P.; Knudsen, S.B.; Sørensen, C., og Sørensen, P., 2008. Morfologisk udvikling i Vadehavet, Knudedybs tidevandsområde. Kystdirekto- ratet. 72s. På baggrund af opmålinger i 1966 og i 2003 er der foretaget en analyse af den overordnede formmæssige udvikling af Knudedybs tidevandsområde, der udgør ét af i alt fi re tidevandsområder i Vadehavet og dækker et område på 175 km2 mellem Jyllands vestkyst og Fanø. Mod syd grænser tidevandsområ- det op til Juvre Dybs tidevandsområde langs Låningsvejen til Mandø og mod nord udgøres grænsen af den højeste beliggende del af vaden, tidevandsskel- let, til Grådyb tidevandsområde. Udviklingen sættes i relation til ændringer i de hydrografi ske forhold i perioden og til prognoser for fremtidige klimaæn- dringer i form af et stigende havspejl og fl ere og kraftigere storme. Området er meget dynamisk, og udviklingen er kendetegnet ved at løb og dyb generelt er blevet både dybere og bredere, og der er sket en nettoero- sion af de permanent vanddækkede dele af tidevandsområdet. Omvendt ses en nettoafl ejring på marskfl aderne samt på størstedelen af vaderne, der tør- lægges ved lavvande. Specielt på vaderne, stjerterne, der ligger vinkelret ud fra Jyllands kyst og på vaderne sydøst for Fanø ses en stor tilvækst. Her er der fl ere steder etableret vegetation og små klitter på vaderne siden 1966. Ni- veauforskellene i området er således blevet mere markante. Tidevandsskellet mod Grådybs tidevandsområde er rykket mod nord og vanddybden er øget, hvilket indikerer en øget vandtransport mellem de to tidevandsområder. Siden 1972 har stigningen i middelvandstanden været på 4 mm om året. Tidevandsstørrelsen er øget med 9 cm (152 til 161 cm) i Esbjerg og 13 cm (171 til 184 cm ) i Havneby på Rømø. Den øgede tidevandsstørrelse medfører at den vandmængde, der i hver tidevandsperiode transporteres ind og ud af Knudedybs tidevandsområde, er blevet større, hvilket kan forklare en stor del af den observerede udvikling. Et centralt spørgsmål er, hvorvidt Vadehavet i almindelighed og marsken i særdeleshed er i stand til at følge med en fremtidig accelereret havspejlsstig- ning. Resultaterne i denne rapport viser, at dette er tilfældet indenfor den ob- serverede stigning gennem de seneste 35 år. En moderat stigningsrate med- fører, at marsken får hyppigere tilført sediment, når den oversvømmes under høje vandstande, og den holder sig således ”ung” i længere tid. I takt med en øget stigningsrate vil den observerede udvikling forstærkes, hvor de topo- grafi ske forskelle mellem vader og dyb/løb bliver endnu mere udtalte. Dette vil mindske mulighederne for ny marskdannelse, ligesom digesikkerheden i beskyttelsen af baglandet vil mindskes i takt med, at vandstanden stiger. Knudedybs tidevandsområde 3 English summary Morphological evolution in the Danish Wadden Sea; the Knudedyb tidal area. Klagenberg, P.; Knudsen, S.B.; Sørensen, C., and Sørensen, P., 2008. Morfo- logisk udvikling i Vadehavet, Knudedybs tidevandsområde. Kystdirektoratet. 72p. Morphological changes between bathymetric surveys in 1966 (Figure 4.27, App. 2) and in 2003 (Figure 4.28, App. 3) and their relationship to the hydro- dynamic forcing are investigated for the Knudedyb tidal area and results are discussed in relation to a climate change related future sea level rise. The Knudedyb tidal area (175 km2) is one of four tidal areas in the Danish Wadden Sea (800 km2). The Danish Coastal Authority (DCA) has previously carried out investigations of the other three tidal areas in the Danish Wadden Sea, see Ingvardsen et al. (2006), Ingvardsen, Vølund and Jensen (2006), and Kystinspektoratet (1999). To the east the Knudedyb tidal area is bordered by Jutland, to the west by the island of Fanø, to the south by the ebb road (Da.: Låningsvejen) to the island of Mandø, acting also as a tidal water divide to- wards the Juvre Dyb tidal area, and to the north by the tidal water divide to- wards the Grådyb Tidal area (Figure 1.1, App. 1). Tides are semi-diurnal with a mean tidal range of 1.6 m and tides are ebb-dominated within the tidal area. Storm surge levels of up to 5 m have been recorded. The overall development shows a tendency towards accumulation on the intertidal and supratidal fl ats and a deepening of the tidal deep, Knudedyb, and of the tidal channels. The accumulation is most pronounced on the in- ner fl ats lying perpendicular to the mainland coast (Da: stjerter) and on the tidal fl ats southeast of Fanø. Here, the supratidal fl ats have experienced the establishment of vegetation and dune formation since 1966. Subtidally, both a widening and deepening of the majority of the tidal channels have occur- red and a net erosion in the inner parts of tidal area of 5.1 mio. m3 has been calculated. The outer parts of the tidal area were not covered by the 1966 survey but aerial photography shows a building out of the ebb-tidal delta. Therefore, eroded sand from the inner parts may have experienced deposi- tion further out in the tidal area. One area that has not experienced accu- mulation on the tidal fl ats is the area around the tidal water divide towards Grådyb. The topographic divide has lowered and has moved further north into the Grådyb tidal area over the period leading to a potentially larger wa- ter exchange between the two tidal areas. One cause of the subtidal defi cit of sediment may be the increase in the tidal prism from 143.3 to 153.5 * 106 m3 for the inner tidal area and from 178.4 to 189.9 * 106 m3 for the entire Knudedyb tidal area over the period 1970- Knudedybs tidevandsområde 2003. The majority of this increase is due to an increase in the tidal range in the same period of 9 cm at Esbjerg (from 152 to 161 cm) and 13 cm at Havneby (from 171 to 184 cm) to the north and south of Knudedyb tidal area, respectively. The relative sea level rise in Esbjerg since 1972 of 4 mm/y 4 combined with the increased tidal range may explain the observed relatively large morphological changes. One central question relating to the Wadden Sea in general is how the area will respond to a future climate change related sea level rise as projected e.g. by the IPCC. As the investigated area is experiencing minor vertical land movements only, the sea level rise is currently exceeding prognoses by the IPCC. The present accumulation rates on the marshes seem to keep up with the current rate of sea level rise. A sea level rise of this order may act positi- vely in keeping the existing marshes “younger” as the frequent fl oodings will enhance marsh growth for an extended period of time. There is, however, a tendency towards a decrease in the relative area covered by tidal fl ats in the period between the two surveys. This means that the establishment of new marsh areas may be inhibited as the rate of sea level rise increases further and where the observed tendency of a more pronounced topography be- comes more explicit. Is may therefore be diffi cult to conclude on the overall development of the Knudedyb tidal area under a climate change scenario with rates of sea level rise signifi cantly larger than today. The development may vary even within individual tidal areas. There is no doubt, however, that both the tidal area and adjacent areas will be set under pressure from a possible future general climatic deterioration with an increased rate of sea level rise, stronger more frequent storms, increased precipitation etc. The report and appendices are available at the DCA homepage www.kyst.dk 5 Indholdsfortegnelse Resumé . .3 English summary . 4 Morphological evolution in the Danish Wadden Sea; the Knudedyb tidal area. .4 1 Indledning . .8 1.1 Formål . .8 1.2 Beskrivelse af Vadehavet . .8 Knudedybs tidevandsområde . .9 Tidevandsrenderne . .11 Vaderne . .11 Marsken . .12 1.3 Teorier omkring Vadehavets udvikling og havspejlsstigninger . .13 Områdets geomorfologiske udvikling fra istiden og frem . .13 Relativ havspejlsstigning . .13 1.4 Beskrivelse af de kræfter, der styrer sedimenttransporten . .15 De hydrodynamiske faktorer . .15 Sedimentprocesser i Vadehavet . .16 2 Konklusion . 19 2.1 Knudedybs tidevandsområde . .19 2.2 Havspejlsstigning og klimaændringer . .20 3 Beskrivelse af metode og datagrundlag . 22 3.1 Pejlinger og nivellementer . .22 3.2 Hydrografi ske data . .23 Vandstandsdata . .23 Vinddata . .23 Bølgeenergi . .23 4 Analyse af data . 24 4.1 Hydrografi ske data . .24 Middelvandstande . .24 Maksimale vandstande . .26 Middelhøjvande og middellavvande . .30 Tidevandsstørrelsen . .32 Tidevandsperioden . .33 Knudedybs tidevandsområde Bølger . .34 Vindenergien . .36 4.2 Morfologiske ændringer i Knudedybs tidevandsområde . .40 Pejleplanerne . ..
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