OBJECTIVE ·· RELEVANT ·· RIGOROUS || JUNE/JULYAUGUST 2020 2018 · VOLUME · VOLUME 13, 11, ISSUE ISSUE 8 6 FEATURE ARTICLE A VIEW FROM THE CT FOXHOLE TheThe Future Jihadi Threat Threat of Gilles de LTC(R) Bryan Price Syntheticto Indonesia Biology Kerchove J. Kenneth Wickiser, Kevin J. O’Donovan, Michael EU Counter-TerrorismFormer Director, Washington, StephenKirsten Hummel, E. Schulze and F. John Burpo CombatingCoordinator Terrorism Center FEATURE ARTICLE Editor in Chief 1 Engineered Pathogens and Unnatural Biological Weapons: The Future Threat of Synthetic Biology Paul Cruickshank J. Kenneth Wickiser, Kevin J. O'Donovan, Michael Washington, Stephen Hummel, and F. John Burpo Managing Editor Kristina Hummel INTERVIEW EDITORIAL BOARD 8 A View from the CT Foxhole: Gilles de Kerchove, European Union (EU) Counter-Terrorism Coordinator Colonel Suzanne Nielsen, Ph.D. Raffaello Pantucci Department Head Dept. of Social Sciences (West Point) ANALYSIS Brian Dodwell 18 Inside the Foreign Fighter Pipeline to Syria: A Case Study of a Portuguese Islamic State Network Director, CTC Nuno Tiago Pinto Don Rassler 31 The Islamic State's Strategic Trajectory in Africa: Key Takeaways from its Director of Strategic Initiatives, CTC Attack Claims Tomasz Rolbiecki, Pieter Van Ostaeyen, and Charlie Winter CONTACT The COVID-19 pandemic has renewed concerns over bioterror threats, Combating Terrorism Center with Microsoft founder Bill Gates recently warning that a bioterror attack U.S. Military Academy involving a pathogen with a high death rate “is kind of the nightmare sce- nario” facing the planet. In this month’s feature article, J. Kenneth Wickiser, Kevin J. O’Donovan, 607 Cullum Road, Lincoln Hall Lieutenant Colonel Michael Washington, Major Stephen Hummel, and Colonel F. John Burpo assess West Point, NY 10996 the potential future threat posed by the malevolent use of synthetic biology. They write that synthet- ic biology “is a rapidly developing and diffusing technology. The wide availability of the protocols, Phone: (845) 938-8495 procedures, and techniques necessary to produce and modify living organisms combined with an Email: [email protected] exponential increase in the availability of genetic data is leading to a revolution in science affecting Web: www.ctc.usma.edu/sentinel/ the threat landscape that can be rivaled only by the development of the atomic bomb.” The authors, who all serve at, or are affiliated with, the Department of Chemistry and Life Science at the United States Military Academy, note that synthetic biology has “placed the ability to recreate SUBMISSIONS some of the deadliest infectious diseases known well within the grasp of the state-sponsored terrorist and the talented non-state actor” and that “the techniques used to propagate bacteria and viruses and The CTC Sentinel welcomes submissions. to cut and paste genetic sequences from one organism to another are approaching the level of skill Contact us at [email protected]. required to use a cookbook or a home computer.” They argue that “an effective response to the threats posed by those using synthetic biology for nefarious purpose will require vigilance on the part of mili- tary planners, the development of effective medical countermeasures by the research community, and The views expressed in this report are the development of diagnostic and characterization technologies capable of discriminating between those of the authors and not of the U.S. natural and engineered pathogens.” Military Academy, the Department of the In our interview, Gilles de Kerchove, the European Union’s longtime Counter-Terrorism Coordi- nator, speaks to Raffaello Pantucci. Nuno Pinto presents a detailed case study of an alleged Portu- Army, or any other agency of the U.S. guese Islamic State network with strong connections to the United Kingdom that sheds significant Government. light on the foreign fighter recruitment pipeline between Europe and Syria in the last decade. Tomasz Rolbiecki, Pieter Van Ostaeyen, and Charlie Winter examine the threat posed by the Islamic State across Africa based on a study of its attack claims. They write: “As the second half of 2020 unfolds, it Cover: A picture taken in a laboratory shows is critical that military and counterterrorism policymakers recognize what is at stake in Africa. The a biohazard sticker on the entrance of a Islamic State is not just fighting a low-grade insurgency on the continent; in at least two countries, it has been able to seize and hold territory and subsequently engage in pseudo-state activities.” room. (Thomas Samson/AFP via Getty Paul Cruickshank, Editor in Chief Images) AUGUST 2020 CTC SENTINEL 1 Engineered Pathogens and Unnatural Biological Weapons: The Future Threat of Synthetic Biology By J. Kenneth Wickiser, Kevin J. O’Donovan, Michael Washington, Stephen Hummel, and F. John Burpo the Japanese army against China during the Second World War.4 Recent developments in biochemistry, genetics, and mo- Recently, the convergence of advances in computer science, lecular biology have made it possible to engineer living or- engineering, biological science, and chemistry have made it pos- ganisms. Although these developments offer effective and efficient means with which to cure disease, increase food production, and improve quality of life for many people, Dr. J. Kenneth Wickiser is a Professor of Biochemistry and the As- they can also be used by state and non-state actors to devel- sociate Dean for Research at the United States Military Academy (USMA) and has extensive experience working on engineered and op engineered biological weapons. The virtuous circle of natural genetic switches in bacteria and biomarkers in human bioinformatics, engineering principles, and fundamental clinical studies. He earned his PhD in Molecular Biophysics and biological science also serves as a vicious cycle by lowering Biochemistry from Yale University and completed his postdoctor- the skill-level necessary to produce weapons. The threat of al research training at Rockefeller University in the Laboratory of bioengineered agents is all the more clear as the COVID-19 Molecular Neuro-oncology. pandemic has demonstrated the enormous impact that a single biological agent, even a naturally occurring one, can Dr. Kevin J. O’Donovan is an Associate Professor in the Depart- have on society. It is likely that terrorist organizations are ment of Chemistry and Life Science at USMA with expertise in monitoring these developments closely and that the prob- neural development and axon regeneration. He earned his PhD in ability of a biological attack with an engineered agent is Neuroscience from the Johns Hopkins University, did his postdoc- steadily increasing. toral work at Rockefeller University, and was faculty at the Burke Neurological Institute before moving to USMA. he COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated that sig- LTC Michael Washington currently serves as an Assistant Pro- nificant biological threats can and will emerge from fessor in the Department of Chemistry and Life Science at USMA. nature without warning, demonstrating that a single He has a PhD in Emerging Infectious Disease with an emphasis viral strain can have a profound impact on modern so- in Immunology from the Uniformed Services University of the ciety. It has also demonstrated that infectious diseases Health Sciences. Tcan rapidly spread throughout a population without human engi- neering making them the ideal substrates from which to develop en- MAJ Stephen Hummel is currently a PhD student in the Biology gineered weapons. Viruses and bacteria have been used as weapons Department at Boston College. Previously, he served in both Iraq for millennia.1 Historically, biological weapons were derived from and Afghanistan and as a USAREUR CBRN Plans Officer, an As- natural sources, such as anthrax from herbivores and domesticated sistant Professor in the Department of Chemistry and Life Science animals, and smallpox from rodents. Those pathogenic organisms at USMA, a Nuclear Operations Officer on a Nuclear Disablement that were found to be suitable for weaponization were cultured Team, and most recently as the Deputy, Commander’s Initiatives directly from the environment; they were then isolated, purified, Group at 20th CBRNE Command. stored, propagated,a and used to fill biological munitions.2 The most recent of example of this was the production and stockpiling of nu- COL F. John Burpo currently serves as the Head of the Department merous agents by the biological weapons program of the former of Chemistry and Life Science at USMA. As an artillery officer, he Soviet Union. In this program pathogens were selected for specific served in airborne, armor, and Stryker units with humanitari- characteristics directly from the natural environment, propagat- an, peacekeeping, and combat operational deployments. He also ed, and stored for later use.3 While these pathogens have evolved served as the Deputy Commander-Transformation for the 20th in nature for the purpose of persisting, they are not optimized for CBRNE Command. He has a Sc.D. in Bioengineering from the maintenance, storage, and deployment in a military setting. Con- Massachusetts Institute of Technology. sequently, while biological agents have not been widely employed as strategic or tactical weapons by state or non-state actors, there The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do are some examples of their use in conflicts. The most significant of not necessarily reflect those of the Combating Terrorism Center, these