©
2 0 2 0
S p r i n g e r
N a t u r e
L i m i t e d .
A l l r i g h t s r e s e r v e d .
CHANDAN KHANNA/AFP VIA GETTY tracking. including identity verification and ballot thanks to a range of security measures — Fraud is exceedingly rare in mail-in voting, fraud thanin-personvoting? votingIs postal really more susceptibleto percentage points(go.nature.com/3dybqs4). 2014 increased voter by participation 9.4 votingdecision to implement all-postal in from Colorado showed that the state’s 6 voted (M. Barber and J. Holbein points in the number of residents who increase of between 1.8 and 2.9 percentage votingswitched postal to mandatory saw an 1992 and 2018, that in some states counties presidential and midterm elections between University in Provo, found Utah, that in Barber, a political scientist at Brigham Young could increase overall voter turnout. Michael at polling places. long queues a lack of paid time off on election day, and Those who don’t vote give reasons including vote in US presidential elections do so. Typically, some 60% of people eligible to voter turnout? Will voting adoption ofpostal affect 2020 Nature looks to the research for answers. the risk of fraud, as Trump has suggested? Willof either political party? it increase represents. than do Republicans, Trump whose party that Democrats favour ballots more postal “whole big scam”. Polls this year have shown attacked mail-in voting, referring to it as a ballot in the past twopostal federal elections. com/37ui7nv). Just one in four voters cast a to use mail-in ballots this year (go.nature. thirds of respondents said they were likely day on 3 November. In a July poll, almost two- expected to be cast by mail before election the pandemic, a record number of votes are next president fairly and safely. Because of over how Americans should vote for their surgecases debate rages intheUnited States, As election day approaches and COVID-19 Nature expected becauseofthepandemic, With record ballots numbersofpostal rise of mail-in voting the result? affect COVID will and the US the election: , eabc7685; 2020). And a separate study But research that mail-in voting suggests Will voting postal tip the balance in favour US President Donald Trump has regularly dives intothedata. Sci. Adv.
demographic groups are rejected more often across were the United States rejected. approximately ballots received 1% of postal signature not matching the one on file. In 2016, an error or inconsistency, such as the voter’s theySometimes, are discarded because of just one reason a ballot might be dismissed. for the November election. But late arrival is ballots would arrive in time to be counted warned that it could not guarantee all states tend to vote Democrat. people from groups, certain many of whom undercounting could disproportionately affect answerThe short is yes, slightly — and Are votes postal likely less tobecounted? voter fraud (go.nature.com/2htkkek). report that debunks several concerns about California, Los and co-author of a Angeles, the Voting Rights Project at the University of ballot box,” says Sonni Waknin, a fellow with than have someone impersonate you at the New York City. lawa non-partisan and policy institute in according to the Brennan Center for Justice, fraud have been documented in the state, 2000. Only about a dozen of proven cases 100 million ballots to registered voters since exclusively by post, has sent more than An electoral worker inFlorida. Research shows that ballots from certain In mid-August, the US Postal Service “You’re more likely to get struck by lightning Oregon, the first to adopt voting state ©
2 0 2 0
S p r i n g e r
N a t u r e
L i m i t e d .
A l l r i g h t s r e s e r v e d . By Lynne Peeples and not just election day,” says Hill. to think of this as ‘election week’ or ‘weeks’ counted before ballots. “Be prepared postal because in-person votes are generally probably take on 3 November, lead an early of Republicans (go.nature.com/34rihqm). person on election day, compared with 68% of Democrats said they planned to vote in in Loudonville, New York, last month, 28% Times and Siena College Research Institute In a poll of probable voters by by a higher Republican turnout in person. offset by in rejected disparities ballots — and this information (go.nature.com/2twjyjb). fromdata that have the 18 states released the University of Florida, who has compiled Michael McDonald, a political scientist at ballots, and returned them, according to Republicans have requested absentee So far, more substantially Democrats than announced? wins theelectionandwhenawinneris votingCould theriseinpostal affect who matters.”“Experience rejected vote-by-mail ballots,” says Smith. going to havequestion, a higher rate of know how to use the system. We are, without sudden influx of new voters who do not post for the first time. “We are seeing a increase in 2020, as more people vote by minute to cast their ballot. registered to vote, or might wait until the last have changed their signatures since they com/3kzfgge). And younger voters might inexperience is one reason (go.nature. voter aged 45–64. Research suggests rates four those of the average times 2020). Voters aged 18–21 faced rejection LawElec. J. Rules Politics Policy have their ballots rejected (A. Baringer were about twice as likely as white voters to and found that Hispanic and Black voters 2016 and 2018 general elections in Florida, ballots cast in the analysed millions of postal of Florida in Gainesville, and his colleagues Smith, a political scientist at the University In a study published in September, Daniel are that typically vote the ones Democrat. than from others — and that those groups Nature |Vol 586 |29 October 2020 |655 Scholars agree that, as a result, Trump will But any advantage for Democrats could be Rejection might rates and disparities explainer News The New York 19 , 289–320;
et al.