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COVID and the US Election: Will the Rise of Mail-In Voting Affect the Result?

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COVID and the US Election: Will the Rise of Mail-In Voting Affect the Result? News explainer COVID and the US election: will the rise of mail-in voting affect the result? With record numbers of postal ballots than from others — and that those groups expected because of the pandemic, are the ones that typically vote Democrat. Nature dives into the data. In a study published in September, Daniel Smith, a political scientist at the University As election day approaches and COVID-19 of Florida in Gainesville, and his colleagues cases surge in the United States, debate rages analysed millions of postal ballots cast in the over how Americans should vote for their 2016 and 2018 general elections in Florida, next president fairly and safely. Because of and found that Hispanic and Black voters the pandemic, a record number of votes are were about twice as likely as white voters to expected to be cast by mail before election have their ballots rejected (A. Baringer et al. day on 3 November. In a July poll, almost two- Elec. Law J. Rules Politics Policy 19, 289–320; thirds of respondents said they were likely 2020). Voters aged 18–21 faced rejection to use mail-in ballots this year (go.nature. rates four times those of the average com/37ui7nv). Just one in four voters cast a voter aged 45–64. Research suggests postal ballot in the past two federal elections. inexperience is one reason (go.nature. US President Donald Trump has regularly com/3kzfgge). And younger voters might attacked mail-in voting, referring to it as a have changed their signatures since they “whole big scam”. Polls this year have shown registered to vote, or might wait until the last CHANDAN KHANNA/AFP VIA GETTY KHANNA/AFP CHANDAN that Democrats favour postal ballots more minute to cast their ballot. than do Republicans, whose party Trump An electoral worker in Florida. Rejection rates and disparities might represents. increase in 2020, as more people vote by Will postal voting tip the balance in favour post for the first time. “We are seeing a of either political party? Will it increase Oregon, the first state to adopt voting sudden influx of new voters who do not the risk of fraud, as Trump has suggested? exclusively by post, has sent more than know how to use the system. We are, without Nature looks to the research for answers. 100 million ballots to registered voters since question, going to have a higher rate of 2000. Only about a dozen cases of proven rejected vote-by-mail ballots,” says Smith. Will adoption of postal voting affect 2020 fraud have been documented in the state, “Experience matters.” voter turnout? according to the Brennan Center for Justice, Typically, some 60% of people eligible to a non-partisan law and policy institute in Could the rise in postal voting affect who vote in US presidential elections do so. New York City. wins the election and when a winner is Those who don’t vote give reasons including “You’re more likely to get struck by lightning announced? a lack of paid time off on election day, and than have someone impersonate you at the So far, substantially more Democrats than long queues at polling places. ballot box,” says Sonni Waknin, a fellow with Republicans have requested absentee But research suggests that mail-in voting the Voting Rights Project at the University of ballots, and returned them, according to could increase overall voter turnout. Michael California, Los Angeles, and co-author of a Michael McDonald, a political scientist at Barber, a political scientist at Brigham Young report that debunks several concerns about the University of Florida, who has compiled University in Provo, Utah, found that in voter fraud (go.nature.com/2htkkek). data from the 18 states that have released presidential and midterm elections between this information (go.nature.com/2twjyjb). 1992 and 2018, counties in some states that Are postal votes less likely to be counted? But any advantage for Democrats could be switched to mandatory postal voting saw an The short answer is yes, slightly — and offset by disparities in rejected ballots — and increase of between 1.8 and 2.9 percentage undercounting could disproportionately affect by a higher Republican turnout in person. points in the number of residents who people from certain groups, many of whom In a poll of probable voters by The New York voted (M. Barber and J. Holbein Sci. Adv. tend to vote Democrat. Times and Siena College Research Institute 6, eabc7685; 2020). And a separate study In mid-August, the US Postal Service in Loudonville, New York, last month, 28% from Colorado showed that the state’s warned states that it could not guarantee all of Democrats said they planned to vote in decision to implement all-postal voting in ballots would arrive in time to be counted person on election day, compared with 68% 2014 increased voter participation by 9.4 for the November election. But late arrival is of Republicans (go.nature.com/34rihqm). percentage points (go.nature.com/3dybqs4). just one reason a ballot might be dismissed. Scholars agree that, as a result, Trump will Sometimes, they are discarded because of probably take an early lead on 3 November, Is postal voting really more susceptible to an error or inconsistency, such as the voter’s because in-person votes are generally fraud than in-person voting? signature not matching the one on file. In 2016, counted before postal ballots. “Be prepared Fraud is exceedingly rare in mail-in voting, approximately 1% of postal ballots received to think of this as ‘election week’ or ‘weeks’ thanks to a range of security measures — across the United States were rejected. and not just election day,” says Hill. including identity verification and ballot Research shows that ballots from certain tracking. demographic groups are rejected more often By Lynne Peeples Nature | Vol 586 | 29 October 2020 | 655 ©2020 Spri nger Nature Li mited. All rights reserved. ©2020 Spri nger Nature Li mited. All rights reserved. .
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