VOL. 3 NO. 184 POLITITUESDAY, JANUARY 19, 2010 CO WWW.POLITICO.COM MASSACHUSETTS SENATE S PECIAL E LECTION Democratic Republican candidate candidate Martha Scott Coakley Brown AP AP Previous Results 2008 Presidential 2006 Gubernatorial 2006 Senate 2004 Presidential 2002 Gubernatorial Obama 62% Deval Patrick 56% Ted Kennedy 69% Kerry 62% Mitt Romney 50% McCain 36% Kerry Healey 35% Ken Chase 31% Bush 37% Shannon O’Brien 45% Other 2% Christy Mihos 7% Other 1% Jill Stein 4% SOURCE: ALMANAC OF AMERICAN POLITICS The Race That Could Change Everything Finger-pointing begins for Dem insiders INSIDE White House mantra: Keep on fighting Poll predicts BY MANU RAJU, JONATHAN MARTIN can Scott Brown set the contours of “bottom is falling BY MIKE ALLEN A defeat by Martha Coakley for AND JOHN BRESNAHAN the race. out” for Coakley, the seat held by the late Ted Kennedy Some Democratic strategists lay as Brown takes President Barack Obama plans would be embarrassing for the party CAMBRIDGE, Mass. — As voters the fault at the feet of President Ba- 9-point lead. a combative response if, as White — and potentially debilitating, since head to the polls in Massachusetts, rack Obama, saying he should have Page 8 House aides fear, Democrats lose Democrats will lose their filibuster- nervous Democrats have already be- done more to sell the party’s agenda. Tuesday’s special Senate election in proof, 60-vote hold on the Senate. gun to blame one another for putting And in private conversations, Hill Romney’s pres- Massachusetts, close advisers say. A potential casualty: the health at risk the Senate seat Ted Kennedy sources say White House chief of staff ence is felt in the “This is not a moment that causes care bill that was to be the crowning held for more than 40 years. Rahm Emanuel has blamed Coakley, race, even though the president or anybody who works achievement of the president’s first Many angry Democrats blame the Democratic Senatorial Campaign he’s been notice- for him to express any doubt,” a se- year in office. their candidate, state Attorney Gen- Committee and Democratic pollster ably absent. nior administration official said. “It The health care backdrop has given eral Martha Coakley, for running a Page 17 more reinforces the conviction to sluggish campaign that let Republi- See DEMS on Page 15 fight hard.” See WHITE HOUSE on Page 23 What to watch for Blue Mass. has long Speaker as votes are counted Nancy had a red streak Pelosi, BY JOSH KRAUSHAAR with BY JAMES HOHMANN AND ALEX ISENSTADT Reps. Jim AND ALEX ISENSTADT Clyburn The stakes for Tuesday’s special Sen- (left) and It was the only state that George ate election in Massachusetts couldn’t be Xavier McGovern carried against Richard Nix- higher. At play: the Democrats’ 60-seat Becerra on. Every member of its congressional supermajority — and, potentially, the delegation is a Democrat, and so are the fate of President Barack Obama’s signa- AP governor and 178 of the state’s 200 House ture health care reform legislation. and Senate legislators. But as Democrat Martha Coakley and Good health care options may be hard to find But those who know Massachusetts Republican Scott Brown head into the politics aren’t nearly as surprised as out- rare mid-January race, just who will BY CARRIE BUDOFF BROWN among Democrats — that a Republican siders that Republican Scott Brown may show up at the polls remains something AND PATRICK O’CONNOR victory Tuesday could spell the end of well defeat Democrat Martha Coakley in of a mystery. health reform because there is no good Tuesday’s Senate special election. They “Conventional wisdom is, the high Ever since health care reform flamed option to rescue the plan from this latest know that a state identified with Ken- turnout favors the Democrat. But in a out in the 1990s, Democrats thought lots brush with political death. nedys, Harvard and Martha’s Vineyard special election, high turnout is volatile of things might derail their longtime Publicly, the White House and top is also a state with deep resentments because you don’t know who’s showing dream this time around. Losing a Senate Democrats held firm to their stance that against elites and a potent history of up,” said Scott Ferson, a Democratic seat in liberal Massachusetts was not on health care reform will pass this year. And backlash politics. the list. See 5 THINGS on Page 9 But that is the harsh reality sinking in See HEALTH CARE on Page 14 See LANDSCAPE on Page 14 INSIDE PIT BOSS HEALTH CARE IDEAS Bill CLICK Frist D.C. rumor mill drives markets, Uncertainty of health care reform Antle says Brown is poised to D.C. bars and former Sen. Frist lend demand for political intelligence. leaves shape of budget nebulous. help GOP make Mass. comeback. AP a hand to quake-ravaged Haiti. PAGE 4 PAGE 11 PAGE 20 PAGE 25.