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Integrated Rail Report Strategic Transport Plan Evidence Base Report by Steer Davis Gleave Commissioned by Transport for the North

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Integrated Rail Report Strategic Transport Plan Evidence Base Report by Steer Davis Gleave Commissioned by Transport for the North Initial Integrated Rail Report Strategic Transport Plan Evidence Base Report by Steer Davis Gleave commissioned by Transport for the North £ £ £ £ Initial Integrated Rail Transport for the North Report June 2017 Our ref: 23015401 Prepared by: Prepared for: Steer Davies Gleave Transport for the North 67 Albion Street 4 Piccadilly Place Leeds LS1 5AA Manchester M1 3BG +44 113 389 6400 www.steerdaviesgleave.com Steer Davies Gleave has prepared this material for Transport for the North. This material may only be used within the context and scope for which Steer Davies Gleave has prepared it and may not be relied upon in part or whole by any third party or be used for any other purpose. Any person choosing to use any part of this material without the express and written permission of Steer Davies Gleave shall be deemed to confirm their agreement to indemnify Steer Davies Gleave for all loss or damage resulting therefrom. Steer Davies Gleave has prepared this material using professional practices and procedures using information available to it at the time and as such any new information could alter the validity of the results and conclusions made. Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... i 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 5 Context ......................................................................................................................................... 5 Purpose of the Report .................................................................................................................. 7 Geographic Scope of the Report................................................................................................... 9 Structure of the Report............................................................................................................... 10 2 Building the Northern Powerhouse ................................................................................... 11 Economic Challenges .................................................................................................................. 11 Transforming the North .............................................................................................................. 12 Transport and the Economy ....................................................................................................... 14 3 Rail and the North’s Economy ........................................................................................... 16 Rail’s role in delivering economic activity .................................................................................. 16 4 Vision and Objectives ....................................................................................................... 22 STP Vision & Objectives .............................................................................................................. 22 The Contribution of Rail to the Vision ........................................................................................ 22 5 Rail in the North Baseline ................................................................................................. 24 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 24 Supply ......................................................................................................................................... 24 Demand ...................................................................................................................................... 35 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 41 6 Rail in the North Horizon Scanning .................................................................................... 43 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 43 Supply ......................................................................................................................................... 43 Demand ...................................................................................................................................... 48 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 56 7 Economic Gaps and Conditional Outputs ........................................................................... 57 Strategic Gaps ............................................................................................................................. 57 Review of LTRS Gaps ................................................................................................................... 57 Conditional Outputs.................................................................................................................... 58 June 2017 8 Options and Sequencing ................................................................................................... 66 Scope .......................................................................................................................................... 66 Identification of Corridors .......................................................................................................... 66 Connectivity Priorities................................................................................................................. 69 9 Next Steps and Implementation .......................................................................................... 3 Moving Towards a Single Integrated Rail Plan ............................................................................. 4 Figures Figure 1.1: The Strategic Transport Plan and its Evidence Base ................................................... 6 Figure 1.2: Identification of pan-Northern Interventions ............................................................. 7 Figure 2.1: The North’s Prosperity Gap (in GVA per capita) with the Rest of the UK ................ 11 Figure 2.2: Sample Locations of Key Assets of the NPIER Prime Capabilities ............................. 13 Figure 3.1: Number of rail trips annually (all journey purposes), average for NPIER prime and enabling capabilities ................................................................................................................... 18 Figure 4.1: Value added by developing a Single Integrated Rail Plan ........................................ 23 Figure 5.1: The Passenger Rail Network in the North (Schematic)............................................. 26 Figure 5.2: Rail journey times accessing Northern cities ............................................................ 30 Figure 5.3: LDHS and Interurban Average Speeds (Trans-Pennine Express, InterCity West Coast, InterCity East Coast, Wales & Borders, Grand Central) .............................................................. 33 Figure 5.4: Passenger journeys in the North, 1995/96 – 2014/15 (thousands) ......................... 35 Figure 5.5: Passenger journeys, TransPennine Express and long distance TOCs ....................... 36 Figure 5.6: Million gross tonne miles, 2005/06 – 2015/16 ......................................................... 37 Figure 5.7: Mass of freight goods carried on the rail network (million tonnes), 2005/06 – 2015/16....................................................................................................................................... 38 Figure 6.1: Vision for NPR Network – Frequencies and Journey Times ...................................... 48 Figure 6.2: Northern Demand Transport Model Scenarios ........................................................ 50 Figure 6.3: Difference between 2016 and 2050 with NPIER scenarios - Hourly Rail Freight Paths Required ..................................................................................................................................... 54 Figure 7.1: Strategic freight flows in the North .......................................................................... 61 Figure 8.1: Strategic Development Corridors ............................................................................. 67 Figure 8.2: Sample Locations of Key Assets of the NPIER Prime Capabilities ............................. 67 Figure 9.1: Process towards a Single Integrated Rail Plan ............................................................ 4 June 2017 Tables Table 3.1: Rail (heavy rail, light rail, tram and underground) mode share percentages (commuters) (2015) .................................................................................................................... 17 Table 5.1: Passenger Rail Operators in the North ...................................................................... 27 Table 5.2: Selected LDHS and Inter-urban Frequencies ............................................................. 28 Table 5.3: Fastest Regular Journey Times and Average Speeds for Selected LDHS and Inter- urban Services ............................................................................................................................. 30 Table 5.4: Rail passenger numbers and crowding, AM peak weekdays average, 2015 ............. 39 Table 6.1: Economic forecasting: dimensions of uncertainty....................................................
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