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The Grimsey Review 2 MARKET DATA AND EVIDENCE FOR THE GRIMSEY REVIEW 2 (PUBLISHED JULY 2018) FULL VERSION A review of economic, retail and property market data across Great Britain relevant to the function and performance of town centres. AUTHOR – MATTHEW HOPKINSON WWW.DIDOBI.COM GRIMSEY REVIEW 2 _ DATA AND EVIDENCE 1 Contents 03 Introduction 04 Economic data 09 Physical premises stock 14 The changing face of our town centres 16 Vacancy rates 18 Town health indices 19 Occupational costs and lease 23 Planning 27 Investment activity 30 Footfall 31 Consumer trends 38 Social changes 42 Conclusions 43 Acknowledgements GRIMSEY REVIEW 2 _ DATA AND EVIDENCE 2 1. Introduction orecasting impact even with good data regenerating the economy locally. (https://www. is not an easy thing to do when you theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/31/ have no idea where the revolution might preston-hit-rock-bottom-took-back-control ) go. It is reported that 90% of the world’s data was created in the last two years The reality is that every town and city in the Falone. For example, in one minute the following country has developed and evolved over history activity takes place Amazon makes $260,000 of as a shopping destination and that is perhaps sales, 4.14 million YouTube videos are watched, why Napoleon famously called the English ‘a 3.5million text messages are sent, 3.6million nation of shopkeepers’. With changes to how Google searches, 47,000 Instagram posts, 46,000 and where we shop be it many years ago with Uber journeys. The vast numbers which seem the advent of supermarkets where the first one unbelievable go on. Only recently, Alibaba on (The London Co-Operative Society) opened China Singles Day saw 357,000 transactions on the 12th January 1948 in Manor Park, East a SECOND!! London (Source MoneyWeek 12/01/2015), or the opening of the first out of town shopping centre How many envisaged how smartphones would in 1976 (Brent Cross) or large out of town retail change our world and if you are sitting there shopping parks such as Fosse Park near Leicester thinking it hasn’t changed yours then it has which opened in 1989 with 12 stores and now changed your family’s, your staff and your has 39 with another 12 on the way from a £135m customers. It was only 10 years ago that the extension or the first e-commerce transaction first iPhone was launched, the first of the smart- on 11th August 1994, when Dan Kohn sold a CD phones. In 2007 they sold 1.4 million and in of Sting’s Ten Summoner’s Talesalbum (Source 2016 they sold just under 212 million. The data FastCompany.com). The internet went live to the creation from these handheld super computers world on 6th August 1991. grows by the day as new software and engage- ment tools are created be it Pokemon Go (www. All of these events have created change so there pokemongo.com) to Snapchat (www.snapchat. is no one cause but revolution in the form and com) to bespoke ‘place’ apps such as www.ex- function of places driven by changing consumer ploregloucestershire.co.uk/ or market place apps behaviour enabled through technology and a such as Bump (www.sobump.com) and Depop connected global economy. (www.depop.com)! With regards bricks and mortar locations The form and function of cities and towns alone a research paper in June 2014 by Geofu- across the world has had to change as a result but tures stated “Global statistics also suggest a with all things in life their composition, identity detrimental effect of large retail developments and ability to change have varied and evolved if built within a 5km proximity to town centres; in many different ways. There is however one ……. When considering the types of large retail golden thread that connects them all which is as separate entities, the hypermarkets or super- that they are communities of people who create stores (for example Tesco Extra or the larger economic value to the place they reside. The ASDA Walmart stores) are the contemporary rep- level of economic health determines the volume lication of the 1950s town centre offer, serving and value of the people that occupy it and it is multiple goods and services under one roof to the from this money flows into the local economy convenience-culture expectations of much of our and creates the need for shops, bars, restau- society. Whilst there have been past studies sug- rants, cinemas, clubs and other consumer facing gesting a beneficial relationship to town centres businesses. In the city of Preston in Lancashire from increased footfall of extremely proximate they have gone even further by introducing a edge-of-centre developments, breathing life and form of Guerrilla Localism where public spend is employment in towns, it may be hard to compete kept as close to home as possible with the hope of with the economies of scale on offer." GRIMSEY REVIEW 2 _ DATA AND EVIDENCE 3 2. Economic data A. Costs Since 2013 the costs of running shops has all contributed to a significant operating cost for increased significantly with the Brexit vote retailers. In 2017 costs rose by 2.9% compared to increasing this further. Inflation, exchange rates, the previous year (Source Retail Economics). Retail wage costs, utility costs, transport costs and sales however increased by 1.9%, their lowest additional levy’s such as the Apprentice Levy have annual growth rate since 2013 (Source ONS) Figure 1. Retail Cost Base Index 2017 (Source Retail Economics) Figure 2. Breakdown of Retailer operating costs in 2017 (Source Retail Economics) GRIMSEY REVIEW 2 _ DATA AND EVIDENCE 4 B. Sales From 2013 to 2017 the annual value of retail During the same period of increases in the sales in Great Britain grew from £360,107 volume and value of retail sales the prices million to £405,867 million which is an increase dropped creating further issues for retailers. of 12.7% (Source Statista). Figure 3. Quarterly growth for the quantity bought and amount spent for all retailing, seasonally adjusted and the non-seasonally adjusted store price (Source ONS) Internet sales as a proportion of retail sales increased from 10.4% in 2013 to 16.2% (monthly average – source ONS). In real terms this is an increase of 55.8%. Figure 4. Internet sales as a proportion of all retailing (Source ONS) GRIMSEY REVIEW 2 _ DATA AND EVIDENCE 5 Retail sales growth by sector shows significant operating the business and therefore creating variances between food and health & beauty and more pressures on already tight profit margins. traditional comparison goods. The rate of growth Traditional comparison goods shopping of these ‘traditional products’ is less than half increasingly no longer takes place in shops but that of health and beauty but more importantly primarily online with the store acting as the is below the inflationary costs associated with showroom and in some cases delivery centre. Figure 5. Retail sales growth by sector (Source Retail Economics) C. Income and forecasts The consumer price index (CPI) measures that prices will start to fall thus decreasing changes in the price level of market basket of inflationary pressures on household incomes. consumer goods and services purchased by This is good for creating more spend for goods households. As figure 6 illustrates, it is forecast and services. Figure 6. Consumer Price Index forecast (Source Retail Economics) GRIMSEY REVIEW 2 _ DATA AND EVIDENCE 6 Wage growth is a key measure for determining spending. Figure 7, however, illustrates that future spend on goods and services. Wage whilst this is positive news from a negative 2017 growth is forecast to outstrip inflation which that this change is c.1% which is less than half of in turn will improve the level of consumer what it was in 2016. Figure 7. Real wage growth forecast (Source Retail Economics) Figure 8. Consumer spending forecast (Source Retail Economics) The Asda income tracker is a very good net income and net income minus basic spend. The benchmark for consumer disposable income. It is average spending power has risen from £158 in based on total household income minus taxes = 2013 to £198 per week at the beginning of 2018. GRIMSEY REVIEW 2 _ DATA AND EVIDENCE 7 Figure 9. Asda income tracker (Source Asda/CEBR) D. Taxation Figure 10 illustrates the significance of burden is more than three times greater than business rates (tax on property occupation) as a that of corporation tax (a tax on profits). In light proportion of the overall tax burden for retailers of the data above this gap between business rates with stores. Of note is that the business rates and corporation tax will continue to widen. Figure 10. Breakdown of taxes (Source: HM Treasury, Retail Economics analysis) GRIMSEY REVIEW 2 _ DATA AND EVIDENCE 8 3. Stock There are over 1,000 cities and towns across the UK with a population of 1,300 people or more (Source The Geographist). The Local Data Company (LDC) who physically survey towns across Great Britain track 1,048 towns and cities. In addition to these places there are approximately 1,300 retail and leisure parks (3+units) and 850 shopping centres (10+ units). Overall the LDC tracks over 550,000 retail and leisure properties across Great Britain. Of these 65% are independents (fascia with less than 5 shops). Chain stores From 2013 to 2017 LDC data shows that 18% of towns lost 10% or more of their chain retailers. The towns who lost the most at over one in five (20%+) of their chain stores include Ilkeston, East Dereham, Dewsbury, Colwyn Bay, Dudley, Bishop Auckland and Ayr.
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