Keras Resources (KRS.L)
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22 March 2016 Keras Resources (KRS.L) Metals & Mining The Only Way to Play the Perfect Storm 1.2 1.1 1.0 Keras Resources is an AIM-quoted resource development company with a diverse suite of 0.9 assets in Australia and Africa. Given the iron ore sector downturn, Keras has stepped back 0.8 from its African iron ore projects to focus on near-term gold production assets in Western 0.7 Australia. Keras plans to commence gold production in Q2 2016, with a plan to build into a 30- 0.6 40koz producer. This new strategy drives shareholder value by acquiring access to permitted 0.5 projects with low capex and opex, and the potential for near-term cash flow. 0.4 0.3 Jan 2015 Apr 2015 Jul 2015 Oct 2015 Jan 2016 Unique Strategy. Keras, previously known as Ferrex Plc, has secured three “Tribute” Source: LSE, KRS.L share price (p) agreements in the Kalgoorlie region of Western Australia, one of the most prolific gold Market data: producing regions in the world. Tribute Mining involves the mining of resources owned by third parties, on existing mining leases, and sending the ore for toll treatment at a nearby Market London (AIM) EPIC KRS process plant. The deals are typically structured as profit share or royalty agreements. Price 1.09 Near-term Cash Flow. The advantage of a tribute deal is that because mining takes place on 12m High (p) 1.09 existing leases, there is no onerous permitting process. Furthermore, mining is normally 12m Low (p) 0.35 focused on orebodies forming remnant resources below existing open pits, or previously Shares (bn) 1.19 un-mined shallow deposits. The use of existing infrastructure and toll processing means Market Cap (£m) 10.5 Free Float (%) 72% that capital requirements to restart production are largely negligible, amounting to working capital only, allowing projects to be fast-tracked into production. Description Resource development company focused Production Plan. Initial gold production will come from the Grants Patch Tribute project, primarily on gold projects in Western with first production and revenues due in Q2 2016. Throughout 2016, Keras plans to bring Australia. First gold production due in Q2 2016 from a number of low capex tribute projects. on-line several other open pit operations, steadily ramping up gold production. Longer term pipeline includes the Nayega Manganese project in Togo, where Keras High-grade Upside. Cash flow from open pit mining will be used to develop high-grade awaits the granting of the Mining Licence. underground projects such as the Prince of Wales mine which previously produced 230koz www.kerasplc.com at 10g/t gold. Cash will also be directed towards new acquisitions in the WA gold space. Directors Best of the Best. Western Australia is ranked as the top jurisdiction in the world for mining Brian Moritz Non-Exec Chairman Dave Reeves Managing Director investment based on mineral policy, tax, geological prospectivity and other factors. James Carter Finance Director The Perfect Storm. The devaluation of the A$ has caused the Aussie gold price to soar away Roy Pitchford Non-Exec Director from the US gold price, and in combination with lower input costs due to spare capacity, Russell Lamming Non-Exec Director Aussie gold miners are currently enjoying the perfect storm and sector-leading margins. Peter Hepburn-Brown Non-Exec Director Pipeline. Keras could rapidly develop the Nayega manganese project in Togo within 9 months upon receipt of the mining permit, and subject to funding. Nayega is a low capital intensity project with good infrastructure. Manganese is a key ingredient in steel, and prices have sky-rocketed in 2016 due to limited stocks and a wave of Chinese demand. Keras is the only way to gain pure-play exposure to the buoyant Australian gold sector either on AIM or the Main Market. We have not undertaken DCF valuation analysis due to the fluid nature of the production plan and lack of hard inputs (costs, schedules etc.) whilst Keras finalises mine plans. However, we see scope for a significant re-rating in the company’s shares upon making the transition to producer. With near-term cash flow on the horizon and an Analyst aggressive growth strategy in place, the shares offer a cheap entry point into a compelling gold Phil Swinfen +44 (0)207 186 9950 play, in our view. 22 March 2016 Contents Keras: Gold and cash flow focus ............................................................................................. 3 Directors and Management ................................................................................................ 4 Company Structure .............................................................................................................. 5 Capital Structure .............................................................................................................. 5 A New Strategy – Refocus on Gold Tributes ...................................................................... 6 News Catalysts & Development Plan ................................................................................. 8 Funding & Financials ............................................................................................................ 9 Valuation Considerations – too early to peg ..................................................................... 9 Australian Gold – Exploiting the sweet spot .................................................................... 10 Location – Western Australia is the No.1 Jurisdiction .................................................... 13 Processing capacity in WA, plenty of options .................................................................. 14 Australian Gold Tribute Projects ........................................................................................... 15 Keras – One of the only ways to play the sector on AIM ........................................... 15 Tribute 1: Grants Patch ..................................................................................................... 16 POW Underground – the high grade prize .................................................................. 21 Tribute 2: Wycheproof ...................................................................................................... 23 Tribute 3: KalNorth ............................................................................................................ 24 Nayega Manganese - future potential ................................................................................ 28 Disclaimer ............................................................................................................................... 30 2 22 March 2016 Keras: Gold and cash flow focus Keras Resources plc (ticker: KRS) is an AIM-quoted resource development company with a diverse suite of assets in Australia and Africa. The company is focused on driving shareholder value by attaining near-term cash flow through the development of advanced stage, low capital expenditure mining projects in favourable jurisdictions. The company’s current commodity focus is gold and Keras plans to commence initial gold production from its portfolio of Australian gold assets in Q2 2016, taking advantage of the opportunity created by currently low input costs and a favourable Australian dollar gold price. Keras aims to become a 30-40kozpa gold producer. Keras anticipates directing the free cash flow towards further development of high- margin Australian gold opportunities in addition to subsidising the development of the company’s Nayega Manganese project in Togo, minimising equity dilution. Gold: Keras has secured three “Tribute” agreements in Western Australia; Grants Patch, Wycheproof and KalNorth. The tribute agreements give Keras the right to mine existing gold deposits on third party mining tenements, utilising existing infrastructure and processing plants, typically in return for a profit share agreement based on gold production. Keras has secured tribute agreements over some of the most prospective areas in the prolific Western Australian Goldfields. Currently, Keras’ tribute agreements cover historical resources of c. 585koz, and management anticipate an initial production rate of 15-25kozpa from Q2 2016. The projects benefit from extremely low or negligible acquisition cost, coupled with minimal capex requirements with gold-bearing ore being processed through existing mills. Manganese: Keras holds an 85% interest in the Nayega manganese permit in northern Togo. A bankable feasibility study has been completed and the grant of a mining permit is awaited. The BFS indicates that Nayega has potential to be a low- capex, open pit mine, producing 250ktpa of 38% manganese concentrate. Other: Keras also holds a variety of iron ore and manganese assets in Gabon and South Africa. Given current iron ore market conditions, these projects are non-core and Keras is assessing ways to realise value from the assets. Keras’s share price has displayed a degree of weakness over the last two years, in-line with peers due to considerable commodity sector headwinds and weak sentiment. With mining and commodities approaching, or already at the bottom of a cyclical low, virtually all resource companies have suffered significant share price declines. In particular, iron ore prices have declined 75% since their peak in 2011. However, Keras’s shares have gained considerable traction since December 2015 as a direct result of refocusing the portfolio on Australian gold opportunities. Figure 1 - KRS 3 year share price (p) Figure 2 - KRS 1 year share price (p) 3.0 1.2