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The Sri Lanka-China-India Triangle: a Regional Power Transition

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The Sri Lanka-China-India Triangle: a Regional Power Transition Claremont Colleges Scholarship @ Claremont CMC Senior Theses CMC Student Scholarship 2021 The Sri Lanka-China-India Triangle: A Regional Power Transition Nandeeni Patel Claremont McKenna College Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses Part of the Asian Studies Commons, Comparative Politics Commons, and the International Relations Commons Recommended Citation Patel, Nandeeni, "The Sri Lanka-China-India Triangle: A Regional Power Transition" (2021). CMC Senior Theses. 2754. https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/2754 This Open Access Senior Thesis is brought to you by Scholarship@Claremont. It has been accepted for inclusion in this collection by an authorized administrator. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Claremont McKenna College The Sri Lanka-China-India Triangle: A Regional Power Transition submitted to Professor Aseema Sinha by Nandeeni Patel for Senior Thesis Fall 2020-Spring 2021 May 3, 2021 1 Acknowledgements This thesis and my college experience is defined by Professor Aseema Sinha’s unconditional mentorship and support. Professor Sinha is a powerful thinker who has encouraged me to pursue numerous topics of interest. The countless hours of expertise, advice, and commentary she has provided during these past four years have opened many doors for me, both professionally and personally. I consider myself incredibly fortunate to have worked with her for so long, and am forever grateful for the bond that we share. This thesis would also not have been possible without the unconditional love and support I have received from God, my family, and my friends. My parents, sister, and grandparents have consistently motivated me to be the best version of myself, despite the obstacles that have come my way. They have also given me complete freedom to explore my many academic interests. For that, and much more, I am forever indebted to them. I am also particularly thankful to the many special relationships I have nurtured at CMC. Thank you to my housemates--Meyya, Simran, Stuti and Anisha—for making thesis-writing during a pandemic an unforgettable journey. Thank you to my best friends—Elena, Will, and Anna—for always cheering me on and being my rocks for the past four years. I also owe many thanks to numerous CMC professors and faculty, including Professor Lisa Koch, who enhanced my skills as an academic and instilled a strong belief in my ability. 2 Abstract In 2016, China became the largest importer of Sri Lankan goods and services, surpassing India. Since then, the Chinese government has signed significant trade, development, and security deals with the island nation. This thesis argues that Sri Lanka's domestic politics, centered around its decades-long civil war and consequent human rights concerns, have served as the crux of its triangular relations with two regional powers: India and China. The human rights issue, in tandem with Sri Lanka's agency as a small state, has drawn Sri Lanka to China. The China-Sri Lanka relationship which strengthened based on shared attitudes towards rights concerns, has now expanded to developing security and development ties. A regional power transition has occurred in South Asia because of Sri Lanka's foreign policy decisions to actively involve China in security and development matters. China's influence over South Asian small states like Sri Lanka has increasingly offset India's previous regional dominance in the South Asian neighborhood. China's increasing footprint in Sri Lanka, caused by Sri Lanka's domestic policy constraints, has consequently adapted India's foreign policy goals. India has responded to China's presence on the island nation by signing similar security and infrastructure deals. This thesis presents the framework for a triangular relationship that emphasizes how one nation's foreign policies indirectly affect another nation's foreign policies. The framework is assessed through a quantitative empirical analysis of annual events from 2013-2019. The triangular relationship is reinforcing and shapes the very nature of South Asian power dynamics. Now, India and China are equal-parts players in Sri Lanka, with both powers sharing strong security and developmental ties with the island nation. 3 Table of Contents Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................................................. 6 Overview ............................................................................................................................. 7 Historical and Contextual Background .............................................................................. 8 The South Asian Context .................................................................................................. 11 Small States and Balance of Power ................................................................................... 17 Domestic Politics ............................................................................................................... 20 Power Transition: Global and Regional ........................................................................... 21 Methods ............................................................................................................................ 22 Chapter 2: Integrating Small State Theory and Regional Power Transitions ......... 24 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 24 Small States ....................................................................................................................... 24 Two-Level Game Theory .................................................................................................. 34 Debt-Trap Diplomacy ....................................................................................................... 36 Geoeconomics .................................................................................................................... 42 Power Transition .............................................................................................................. 49 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 55 Chapter 3: History of Sri Lanka: Civil War ............................................................ 56 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 56 Colonization and Dominion .............................................................................................. 57 1960 Socialist Uprising ...................................................................................................... 58 1971 Uprising .................................................................................................................... 60 1972 Socialist Republic ..................................................................................................... 61 Eelam War I (1983-1987) .................................................................................................. 65 Sri Lanka-India Relations in the Context of Eelam War I ............................................... 66 Eelam War II (1990-1995) ................................................................................................. 72 Eelam War III (1995-2002) ............................................................................................... 74 Negotiations for Peace (2002-2006) ................................................................................... 74 Eelam War IV (2006-2009) ............................................................................................... 76 Post-Conflict Period (2009-onwards) ................................................................................ 79 Chapter 4: China-Sri Lanka Relations .................................................................... 83 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 83 Methods ............................................................................................................................ 84 Historical Context ............................................................................................................. 85 Maritime Silk Road, Belt and Road, and the String of Pearls .......................................... 87 Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) ..................................................................... 90 Case Study: Human Rights ............................................................................................... 91 2009 Resolution .................................................................................................................... 92 Tamil Diaspora ..................................................................................................................... 94 2010: Lessons Learned and Reconciliation Commission (LLRC) ........................................ 96 2012 Resolution .................................................................................................................... 97 2013 Resolution .................................................................................................................... 97 2015 U.N. Report ................................................................................................................. 98 2020 and 2021 .....................................................................................................................
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