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Copertinaweb Layout 1 CENTRE FOR ADVANCED MILITARY CENTRE DEFENCE STUDIES FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES CENTRO ALTI STUDI CENTRO MILITARE PER LA DIFESA DI STUDI STRATEGICI 2016 BORDERS and CONFLICTS Geopolitics is back Special Issue Osservatorio Strategico The Military Center for Strategic Studies (Ce.Mi.S.S.) is an Italian Ministry of Defence (MoD) Institute founded in 1987 that carries out strategic studies for the Italian Chief of Defence. This activity allows the access to knowledge tools and analytical methods that help in tackling current and future scenarios in support of the security and defence needs of the Italian Defence Services and of the national community in general. Its mission comes up from the essential need of the MoD to play effectively an active cultural and scientific role, interacting with the relevant communities in order to shape a positive social environment vis-à-vis with opinion leaders and the public opinion. In particular the Centre: ● carries out politico-military strategic studies and researches; ● develops the cooperation between the Italian Defence Services, Universities and Research Institutes or Government bodies (National & International); ● trains military and civilian analists; ● promotes the specialization of young researchers in its areas of interest; ● publishes and circulates the most relevant studies. The study and research activities have the primary goal to answer the cognitive and decision-making needs of the top MoD officials with respect to the most relevant issues affecting Italian security and Defence. The Ce.Mi.S.S. carries out its activities availing itself of civilian and military experts (Italian and foreigner), who enjoy academic freedom in their research. Therefore, views expressed in the content of this volume are solely those of authors and in any case not a position of the Italian MoD. The book named “Osservatorio Strategico”(O.S.) puts together analyses and reports of the Military Centre for Strategic Studies, prepared by specialized researchers whose contributions (structured into main events and critical analyses) constitute the essence of the “Strategic Monitoring” relating to selected strategic areas/sectors/subjects. The O.S. is published in the Italian version, enriched with an exhaustive Executive Summary in English language in order to “share” the document with international readers. The most relevant results are also published in an English language version, named “Quarterly”, every three months. CENTRE FOR ADVANCED MILITARY CENTRE FOR DEFENCE STUDIES STRATEGIC STUDIES CENTRO ALTI STUDI CENTRO MILITARE DI PER LA DIFESA STUDI STRATEGICI 2016 BORDERS and CONFLICTS Geopolitics is back Special Issue Osservatorio Strategico Special Issue The opinions expressed in this volume are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Italian Ministry of Defence. The “Osservatorio Strategico” is available also in electronic format (file pdf and ebook) at the following link: http://www.difesa.it/SMD_/CASD/IM/CeMiSS/Pubblicazioni/OsservatorioStrategico/ Pagine/default.aspx Osservatorio Strategico 2015 This book has been edited by Military Centre for Strategic Studies Director Rear Admiral Mario Caruso Deputy Director Captain(Navy) Vincenzo Paratore Chief International Relations Department Graphic and layout Massimo Bilotta - Roberto Bagnato Editing Maria Rocca Authors Claudia Astarita, Claudio Bertolotti, Claudio Catalano, Lorena Di Placido Stefano Felician Beccari, Lucio Martino, Marco Massoni, Nunziante Mastrolia, Mario Rino Me, Nicola Pedde, Alessandro Politi, Paolo Quercia Printed by Typography of the Centre for High Defence Studies Military Centre for Strategic Studies International Relations Department Palazzo Salviati Piazza della Rovere, 83 - 00165 – ROME - ITALY tel. 00 39 06 4691 3204 fax 00 39 06 6879779 e-mail [email protected] Closed November 2015 / Printed February 2016 ISBN 978-88-99468-14-9 Index Foreword Mario Caruso 9 Scenarios The Mediterranean dilemma The Mediterranean dilemma: Containing or confronting ongoing conflicts? Mario Rino ME 13 Energy security Energy outlook Nicola Pedde 27 Migration crisis Africa’s role in refugees and migration crisis towards Europe Marco Massoni 31 International economy A New Western Century Nunziante Mastrolia 41 Technological innovation Emerging technologies for defence industry Claudio Catalano 47 5 Part I Regional Analyses Transatlantic relations and NATO A year of transition Lucio Martino 55 Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia 2016: a crucial year in East-West relations Lorena Di Placido 61 South Eastern Europe and Turkey Turkey, Europe and Russia: a three players game for South Eastern Europe Paolo Quercia 69 Middle East & North Africa The collapse of the Middle East, including jihadist’s threat and political fragility Nicola Pedde 79 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa: Criticalities and Opportunities Marco Massoni 87 Afghan theater Afghanistan: the reasons of a no victory and the future perspectives. The new phase of the Afghan war and the role of the Islamic State (IS/Daesh) Claudio Bertolotti 95 European Defense Initiatives All quiet on the Eastern front, Mediterranean security takes centre stage Claudio Catalano 105 China 2016: A year of tension Nunziante Mastrolia 113 6 Asia-Pacific 2016 and the missing stability of the Pacific Asia Stefano Felician Beccari 119 India and the Indian Ocean India, a country hanging in the balance between problematic domestic reforms and challenging global ambitions Claudia Astarita 125 Latin America A continent in trouble Alessandro Politi 131 SPECIAL TERRORISM: November the 13th, 2015, is a new September 11th? The first time of EU mutual defence clause Claudio Catalano 141 Paris, 13 November: a terrorist jihadist attack with an European dimension Paolo Quercia 149 An Indian Strategy to fight Terrorism Claudia Astarita 155 ISIS threat on the regional and global scale Nicola Pedde 159 7 SPECIAL CRISIS TURKEY-RUSSIA The shooting down of Russian SU-24: analysis, assessments, forecasts Lorena Di Placido 165 Repercussions of the shoot down of a Russian aircraft Lucio Martino 169 List of acronyms 171 8 Foreword Rear Admiral Mario Caruso This Special Edition of the Osservatorio Strategico was elaborated thanks to the contributions of a group of scholars from a variety of educational background and different fields of expertise, who examined the events happened over the last years, and 2015 in particular (also based on what was already carefully monitored and commented in our Strategic Observatory - Osservatorio Strategico), with the aim of getting hints for the future. This should have been the 17th issue of the Strategic Outlook, but since we take superstition seriously, we decided to issue a new edition that could be considered a sort of “pilot” to start over with. So, we decided to improve legibility by cutting some prolixity detected in the last issues and we went back to the traditional regional approach, although we kept a little spy glass on some particular events and themes; finally we investigated rather in depth the main contemporary trends. Over the years, the Ce.Mi.S.S.’s regional analyses have become increasingly detailed and refined, because unlike other similar publications they are not exclusively the result of a one year long research work, but rather the result of an almost 30 year long project, developed by a multifaceted group of scholars whose work is published in the Strategic Observatory (Osservatorio Strategico). The world we live in nowadays is probably the most volatile ever seen , though it is fair to say that the ability to remember is often the synthesis of a wish and a need to remember. Fortunately, or maybe unfortunately, modern technology comes to help in this sense, making it much easier for people, goods and information to move around. Major demographic changes are transforming the composition and distribution of the world population, hereby laying the foundations for progressively profound social changes. These include a form of terrorism characterized by an unprecedented willingness to destroy and a seemingly purposeless use of violence, or at least for purposes the public opinion hardly understands, after the collective disillusionment that followed the end of the bipolar system. All political, economic and scientific developments now disclose high speed evolutions, making them difficult to be manage at both by traditional state actors and by new non-state actors. Against this background, one thing seems certain: the future is certain to surprise us more and more. Today decision makers have the responsibility to prevent possible catastrophes (economic, climatic, social etc.) and, in order to better achieve this goal we 2016 - BORDERS and CONFLICTS - Geopolitics in back 9 can look ahead for opportunities that might show up on our path and get ready to successfully face future challenges, while keeping in mind that even the more unforeseeable events will be rooted in the present or in the recent past. With respect to the complexity of the international system, more than understand to where we are now, we need to know where we want to be tomorrow and how we could get there. Comparing the course of our country to the route of a ship, we need to be well prepared and equipped, with a clear vision, that we still have to face an often hostile external environment and consequently modify course and speed. Last but not least, I wish to thank all the scholars that this year as well accepted the risks linked to this stimulating appointment.
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