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Final Setup, Calibration, and Validation for Illinois River Watershed Nutrient Model and Tenkiller Ferry Lake EFDC Water Quality Model

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Final Setup, Calibration, and Validation for Illinois River Watershed Nutrient Model and Tenkiller Ferry Lake EFDC Water Quality Model Final Setup, Calibration, and Validation for Illinois River Watershed Nutrient Model and Tenkiller Ferry Lake EFDC Water Quality Model Prepared by Michael Baker Jr., Inc. 3601 Eisenhower Avenue, Alexandria, VA 22304 Aqua Terra, Consultants 2685 Marine Way, Suite 1314 Mountain View, CA 94043-1115 Dynamic Solutions, LLC 6421 Deane Hill Dr. Suite 1 Knoxville, TN 37919 Submitted to US EPA Region 6 Dallas, TX 75202 Under EPA Contract EP-C-12-052 Order No. 0002 Dated 15 September 2013 August 7, 2015 Environmental Protection Agency Regions 6 Illinois River Watershed Nutrient Model and Tenkiller Ferry Lake EFDC Water Quality Model Table of Contents Section 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1 Section 2 Illinois River Watershed Nutrient Modeling: Model Calibration and Validation ............ 4 2.1 Background and Study Objectives ................................................................................. 4 2.2 Prior Modeling Studies and Management Plans ............................................................ 7 2.3 Modeling Approach ......................................................................................................... 9 2.3.1 Model Application .................................................................................................... 9 2.4 Time Series Data Availability for the IRW Model .......................................................... 12 2.4.1 Precipitation ........................................................................................................... 13 2.4.2 Evapotranspiration and Other Meteorological Data .............................................. 18 2.4.3 Streamflow ............................................................................................................ 19 2.4.4 Water Quality Data ................................................................................................ 21 2.4.5 Point Sources ........................................................................................................ 22 2.4.6 Atmospheric Deposition ........................................................................................ 26 2.5 Segmentation and Characterization of the IRW ........................................................... 27 2.5.1 Topography and Elevation .................................................................................... 28 2.5.2 Hydrography/Drainage Patterns ............................................................................ 29 2.5.3 Land Use ............................................................................................................... 32 2.5.4 Soils Data .............................................................................................................. 37 2.5.5 Final Segmentation ............................................................................................... 43 2.6 Calibration and Validation of the IRW Model ................................................................ 47 2.6.1 Calibration and Validation Time Periods ............................................................... 47 2.6.2 Hydrology Calibration/Validation Procedures and Results .................................... 52 2.6.3 Water Quality and Sediment Calibration Procedures and Comparisons ............... 64 2.6.4 Nonpoint Loading Calibration and Results ............................................................ 79 2.6.5 Instream Water Quality Calibration Results........................................................... 90 2.7 TP and TN Loading and Load Allocation Analyses ...................................................... 97 2.7.1 Loading Analyses at AR/OK Stateline and Tahlequah .......................................... 97 2.7.2 Load Allocation at AR/OK Stateline and Tahlequah ............................................ 105 Section 3 Tenkiller Ferry Lake EFDC Water Quality Model Analysis ....................................... 109 3.1 Overview of the EFDC Model ..................................................................................... 109 3.2 Model Simulation Period ............................................................................................. 109 3.3 Grid Development ....................................................................................................... 110 3.4 Shoreline and Bathymetry .......................................................................................... 110 ii Environmental Protection Agency Regions 6 Illinois River Watershed Nutrient Model and Tenkiller Ferry Lake EFDC Water Quality Model 3.5 Meteorological Data .................................................................................................... 112 3.6 Boundary Conditions .................................................................................................. 114 3.7 HSPF-EFDC Linkage ................................................................................................. 117 Section 4 Water Quality and Sediment Flux Model .................................................................. 120 4.1 Water Quality Model ................................................................................................... 120 4.2 Sediment Flux Model .................................................................................................. 130 Section 5 Calibration and Validation Stations ........................................................................... 138 5.1 Stage Calibration and Validation Stations .................................................................. 138 5.2 Water Quality Calibration Stations .............................................................................. 139 Section 6 Model Performance Statistics ................................................................................... 142 6.1 Model Performance Statistics ..................................................................................... 142 Section 7 Hydrodynamic Model Calibration and Validation ...................................................... 144 7.1 Lake Stage Calibration ............................................................................................... 144 7.2 Lake Stage Validation ................................................................................................. 145 7.3 Lake Hydraulic Residence Time Calibration and Validation ....................................... 145 Section 8 Water Quality Model Calibration and Validation ....................................................... 149 8.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 149 8.2 Water Temperature Calibration and Validation .......................................................... 149 8.3 Total Suspended Solids Calibration and Validation .................................................... 159 8.4 Dissolved Oxygen Calibration and Validation ............................................................. 165 8.5 Algae and Tropic State Index Calibration and Validation ........................................... 174 8.6 Organic Carbon Calibration and Validation ................................................................ 180 8.7 Nitrogen Calibration and Validation ............................................................................ 185 8.8 Phosphorus Calibration and Validation ...................................................................... 196 Section 9 Summary and Conclusions ....................................................................................... 209 9.1 Summary .................................................................................................................... 209 9.2 Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 210 Section 10 References .............................................................................................................. 212 iii Environmental Protection Agency Regions 6 Illinois River Watershed Nutrient Model and Tenkiller Ferry Lake EFDC Water Quality Model List of Figures Figure 1-1. Location of Tenkiller Ferry Lake ................................................................................. 3 Figure 2-1. Illinois River Watershed Location map ...................................................................... 5 Figure 2-2. Section 303(d) 2008 Listed Impaired Segments within the Illinois River Watershed . 6 Figure 2-3 Pervious Land Simulation (PERLND) Module in HSPF ............................................ 10 Figure 2-4 Soil Phosphorus Cycle in HSPF AGCHEM .............................................................. 11 Figure 2-5 Instream Phosphorus Processes in HSPF RCHRES ............................................... 12 Figure 2-6 Precipitation Stations Selected for Use in the IRW Model ........................................ 15 Figure 2-7 Annual Isohyetal Map of the IRW ............................................................................. 17 Figure 2-8 USGS Stream Gage Locations in the IRW ............................................................... 20 Figure 2-9 Derived from a 10-Meter DEM from the USGS Seamless Server ............................ 30 Figure 2-10 Stream Hydrography Coverage for the IRW from NHDPlus ................................... 31 Figure 2-11 National Land Cover Data (NLCD) for 2001 and 2006 ........................................... 35 Figure 2-12 Distribution
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