Pollara Abelxn Wave2 Reportf1
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The following report summarizes the key findings from Pollara Strategic Insights’ second and final poll of the 2019 Alberta provincial election. From April 12-14, 2019, Pollara Strategic Insights conducted an online survey among a randomly-selected, reliable sample of N=1,005 Albertans. As online surveys are not based on probability samples, a margin of error cannot be applied. A probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The dataset is statistically weighted according to the gender and regional proportions of the population as well as an estimate of the age proportions of the electorate, based on the turnout of Albertans across age brackets in previous elections. Our first poll for this election was conducted April 8-10, 2019. Reports and data tables for both surveys are hosted on www.pollara.com. GENDER AGE Demographics Female Male 18-34 35-54 55+ 1005 weighted 503 499 222 356 426 1005 unweighted 547 455 254 351 400 Greater Greater Rural Rural Rural Regions Calgary Edmonton Calgary Edmonton South Central North 1005 weighted 305 66 234 97 77 133 93 1005 unweighted 283 62 290 80 94 133 63 Turnout Intent Both NDP (62%) and UCP (61%) voters are equally likely to be absolutely certain about turning out to vote. They are also equally likely to have already voted in advance polls – 24% and 25%, respectively. Absolutely certain that I will vote 57% Very likely to vote 12% SoMewhat likely to vote 6% Not very likely to vote 2% Not likely to vote at all 3% Already voted in an Advance Poll 21% Vote Intent Among Decided and Leaning Voters With election day just two days away, the UCP hold a 6-point lead over the NDP. Regionally, the UCP hold strong leads in Calgary (51%), Greater Calgary (55%), Greater Edmonton (46%), and Rural Central (58%). The NDP hold a dominant lead in Edmonton (61%), and the two parties are statistically tied in Rural South and North. Demographically, men are more likely to vote UCP and women are more likely to vote NDP. Younger voters are more likely to vote NDP, whereas older voters – who are typically more likely to turnout – are more likely to vote UCP. Among Albertans who are absolutely certain to turnout or have already voted, the vote spread is remains 6 points: 46% UCP vs. 40% NDP Wave 1 UCP, Jason Kenney 45% - NDP, Rachel Notley 39% +1 Alberta Party, Stephen Mandel 8% 0 Alberta Liberal Party, David Khan 3% -1 FCP, Derek Fildebrandt 1% -1 Alberta Independence, David Bjorkman 1% -1 Alberta Greens, Cheryle Chagnon-Greyeyes 2% +1 Other 1% - Certainty of Vote Choice By Party Voters Decided voters are firming up. Eight-in-ten NDP voters (80%) and UCP voters (80%) are very certain about their vote choice. Very certain 75% Since Wave 1 +9% Somewhat certain 20% Not very certain 3% Main Reasons for Voting NDP When asked to indicate their main reasons for voting for the party*, NDP voters pointed to it being the best party to represent Albertans of all backgrounds (50%) and to provide ethical, accountable government (46%). Second tier reasons include opposition to other parties (37%) and a perception that the NDP are the best party for Alberta’s economy and getting pipelines built (36%). Best leader/party to represent Albertans of all backgrounds, orientations, and identities 50% Best leader/party to provide ethical, accountable government 46% Do not want other party/parties or leader(s) to form government 37% Best leader/party for Alberta's economy and getting pipelines built 36% Best leader/party to represent, and negotiate for, Alberta's interests with the federal government 25% Best leader/party to fight climate change 20% Want this party to form Government 14% Other 6% Don't know / Unsure / No reason / May switch 1% * Respondents were asked to provide up to 3 main reasons. Thus, percentages will total to more than 100%. Main Reasons for Voting UCP When asked to indicate their main reasons for voting for the party*, UCP voters overwhelmingly pointed to it being the best party for Alberta’s economy and getting pipelines built (64%) and to represent Alberta’s interests in negotiations with the federal government (61%). Voters that are driven by concerns about jobs, the economy, and pipelines appear to be largely turning to the UCP during this election. Best leader/party for Alberta's economy and getting pipelines built 64% Best leader/party to represent, and negotiate for, Alberta's interests with the federal government 61% Want this party to form Government 36% Do not want other party/parties or leader(s) to form government 32% Best leader/party to provide ethical, accountable government 17% Best leader/party to represent Albertans of all backgrounds, orientations, and identities 14% Want this leader to be Premier 10% Best leader/party to fight climate change 3% Other 6% Don't know / Unsure / No reason / May switch 2% * Respondents were asked to provide up to 3 main reasons. Thus, percentages will total to more than 100%. Likelihood that Party Leaders can Get Pipeline Construction Started in Next 3-4 years Six-in-ten (63%) Albertans feel that Jason Kenney’s UCP is likely to get construction started on pipelines in the next 3-4 years, if he is elected and forms government. Just 14% think he is not likely at all. About half (49%) feel this way about Rachel Notley’s NDP, and 28% think she is not likely at all to do so – double the proportion for Kenney. NOT LIKELY AT ALL NOT VERY LIKELY SOMEWHAT LIKELY VERY LIKELY Likely (Very/Somewhat) 14% 23% 40% 23% 63% Jason Kenney's UCP 27% 24% 32% 17% 49% Rachel Notley's NDP Leader Most Likely to Get Pipeline Construction Started in Next 3-4 Years When asked which of these two leaders/parties is most likely to get construction on pipelines started in the next 3-4 years, 42% of Albertans pick Kenney and the UCP compared to 27% for Notley and the NDP. Notably, among those who are absolutely certain to vote or have already voted, 45% feel Kenney is the most likely to get pipelines built, compared to 28% for Notley. Among party supporters, 86% of UCP voters feel Kenney is most likely to get pipelines built, whereas only 64% of NDP voters feel that Notley is most likely to do so. 42% Much more likely 26% 27% Much more likely 15% Somewhat more likely 13% Somewhat 16% more likely 12% 9% 9% Jason Kenney's Both Equally Rachel Notley's Neither can get Don't UCP NDP this done know/Unsure Overall Impression of the Party Leaders Impressions of the party leaders remain middling. Mean Average Score on 0-10 Scale Wave 2 Wave 1 NOT RATED NEGATIVE NEUTRAL POSITIVE Stephen Mandel 12% 20% 49% 19% 4.88 5.00 Rachel Notley 3% 38% 23% 36% 4.78 4.85 Jason Kenney 4% 41% 21% 34% 4.45 4.56 Who Would Make The Best Premier of Alberta? Below the surface of this split preference for Premier, each party’s supporters overwhelmingly prefer their own party leader. Almost all NDP voters (95%) say Notley would make the best Premier, and 83% of UCP voters say the same about Kenney. Wave 1 Rachel Notley 38% +2 Jason Kenney 35% -1 Stephen Mandel 11% +2 Don't Know/Unsure 16% .