Southern Ontario Model Assembly XLVIII United Nations Security Council: The Situation in : The

Topic 001: The Situation in Libya: The Second Libyan Civil War

Introduction

Though the many and factions present in Libya today were once united under the common purpose of overthrowing the authoritarian ruler of the country,

Muammar Gaddafi, the country has been left divided after the event. President Obama stated in an interview released in April 2016 that the “worst mistake” during his presidency was his failure to prepare for the aftermath of Gaddafi’s overthrow.1 The United Nations has created a special body to oversee Libya in an attempt to stabilize the nation, namely the

United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and has attempted to set up an internationally recognized government in the country. Unfortunately, there has not been very much success, as the Second Libyan Civil War began in 2014. Though the conflict had begun

1 BBC, “Why is Libya so Lawless?,” BBC News, BBC, Published April 10, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-24472322.

Southern Ontario Model United Nations Assembly XLVIII United Nations Security Council: The Situation in Libya: The Second Libyan Civil War

to de-escalate, in April 2019, the ’s attack on the city of has reignited the issue. The attack on Tripoli is in violation of the United Nations Arms

Embargo. 2 The number of internally displaced people in Libya, as of October 18, 2019, is estimated to be 301,407; the number of internally displaced people since the April Tripoli attacks is estimated to be 128,000. 3 The international community must act before the conflict increases in severity.

Recent History of Libya

Libya has been in an unstable position since the overthrowing of its former authoritarian ruler, , in 2011. The nation has been struggling to set up a new form of government, with many militias forming as a result of the disagreements in how the new infrastructure of the country should look like.

The Second Libyan Civil War began in February 2014, when the General National

Congress, the interim government in place at the time, refused to disband after their mandate expired.4 In May 2014, General , the leader of the Libyan National

Army (LNA), launched a military assault against the Islamist groups that were present in

Benghazi, a city in the eastern part of Libya.5 The group also attempted to seize parliament, accusing the Prime Minister Ahmed Maiteg of being too supportive of the presence of

2 “Libya, November 2019 Monthly Forecast,” Security Council Report, Security Council Report, Published October 31, 2019, h ttps://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2019-11/libya-9.php. 3 Ibid. 4 “Libya profile - Timeline,” BBC News, BBC, Last Modified April 9, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13755445. 5 Ib id.

Southern Ontario Model United Nations Assembly XLVIII United Nations Security Council: The Situation in Libya: The Second Libyan Civil War

Islamist groups in the nation. As a result of these pressures, the Prime Minister resigned in

June 2014.6

In October 2014, the Islamic State extremist seized control of Derna, a city in the eastern Libya.7 In January 2015, a partial was declared by the LNA and the

Islamist militias after UN-sponsored talks in Geneva.8 However, just a month later, the

Egyptians bombed Derna, as retaliation to the Islamic State beheading of 21 Egyptian

Christians.9 Due to these conflicts, in March 2016, the UN announced a new interim government based in ; however, neither of the parliaments based in the Libyan cities of Tripoli and recognized the government’s authority.10

Between 2016 and 2018, the LNA successfully removed all Islamic State presence in the nation.11 However, another large conflict began in April 2019, when the LNA advanced on Tripoli in an attempt to seize the current internationally recognized Government of

National Accord.12

6 Ib id. 7 Ibid. 8 “ agrees partial ceasefire with militias,” BBC News, BBC, Published January 19, 2015, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-30875265. 9 “Libya profile - Timeline,” BBC. 10 Ib id. 11 Ibid. 12 Ibid.

Southern Ontario Model United Nations Assembly XLVIII United Nations Security Council: The Situation in Libya: The Second Libyan Civil War

Figure 1: Current Distribution of Militia Control in Libya.

Southern Ontario Model United Nations Assembly XLVIII United Nations Security Council: The Situation in Libya: The Second Libyan Civil War

Major Groups in the Conflict

The Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) is a UN-brokered power-sharing agreement created in December 2015. 13 It established and recognized the Government of National

Accord (GNA), which was led by the Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj and consisted of a nine-member presidency council, including members drawn from the various factions in

Libya.14 However, although this government was legitimized by the United Nations Security

Council (UNSC), it struggled to reunite the west and east. In December 2017, the United

Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) made efforts to amend the LPA, but failed because the LNA, led by Haftar, refused to recognize the GNA as the official government of

Libya.15 Currently, the two main stakeholders in the conflict are the GNA and the LNA.

Figure 2: The Libyan Government as Proposed by the Libyan Political Agreement

13 “A Quick Guide to Libya’s Main Players,” European Council on Foreign Relations, Accessed November 4, 2019, h ttps://www.ecfr.eu/mena/mapping_libya_conflict. 14 Barbour and Brown, “Attempt at Unity: Government of National Accord,” Encyclopaedia Britannica, Encyclopaedia Britannica Inc., Last Modified October 31, 2019, https://www.britannica.com/place/Libya/Attempt-at-unity-Government-of-National-Accord. 15 Ibid.

Southern Ontario Model United Nations Assembly XLVIII United Nations Security Council: The Situation in Libya: The Second Libyan Civil War

Government of National Accord

The GNA is currently based in Tripoli and is headed by al-Sarraj. The Prime

Minister himself is not a powerful figure, but his alliances allow him to have close

links with the remaining eight members of the presidency council.16

After the April 2019 attack on Tripoli, the GNA have advocated for a no-fly

zone to be imposed by the international community, and specifically, the UNSC.17

The GNA claimed that this would allow them to defeat the LNA in days as the

LNA’s ground forces are weak and they have been sustaining themselves through

foreign fighter jets. 18 However, if the UNSC were to implement this action, it could

perpetuate the image of heavily supporting one side of the conflict.

Though UN resolutions continuously and repeatedly call upon UN member

states to cease support for both the GNA and the LNA, many nations continue to

provide military and political support. Currently, the largest military supporters of

the GNA are and .19

16 “A Quick Guide to Libya’s Main Players,” European Council on Foreign Relations. 17 “Clashes Reported in Libya as Sides Reject Diplomacy,” , Published November 1, 2019, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/11/fresh-clashes-reported-libya-sides-reject-diplomacy-191101063534 601.html?xif=. 18 Ibid. 19 “Libya, November 2019 Monthly Forecast,” Security Council Report.

Southern Ontario Model United Nations Assembly XLVIII United Nations Security Council: The Situation in Libya: The Second Libyan Civil War

Libyan National Army

The LNA is currently based in Tobruk and is headed by Haftar. The group

was elected to parliament in the 2014 elections; however, these elections are widely

disputed due to the low voter turnout.20

Haftar has stated that the LNA is willing to seek out political and diplomatic

solutions to the conflict. However, this is only after the GNA rids themselves of the

armed groups that are currently providing the Tripoli government with its core

support, which effectively rules out any dialogue.21

Many other nations are currently providing support for the LNA. Military

support for the LNA comes mainly from , , and the United Arab

Emirates; political support for the LNA comes from , , and the United

States.22

International Response

Although the attack on Tripoli began fairly recently, in April 2019, it is escalating quickly and has thus garneed various international responses, both positive and negative.

Emad Badi, a Libyan non-resident scholar, has stated that “this conflict is largely sustained by the forign powers backing Haftar.”23 This is largely in reference to the permanent

20 “Libya profile - Timeline,” BBC. 21 “ Clashes Reported in Libya as Sides Reject Diplomacy,” Al Jazeera. 22 “Libya, November 2019 Monthly Forecast,” Security Council Report. 23 Guerin, Orla, “Libya in Chaos as Endless War Rumbles On, BBC News, BBC, Published October 27, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-49971678.

Southern Ontario Model United Nations Assembly XLVIII United Nations Security Council: The Situation in Libya: The Second Libyan Civil War

member of the Security Council -- namely France, Russia, and the -- who also hold veto power. These members support Haftar, making it difficult for the Security Council to agree on any meaningful propositions or resolutions.

The German Chancellor Angela Merkel has stated that an international peace conference discussing this issue must occur before the end of 2019. 24 However, Peter Millett, the former ambassador to Libya, has argued that the conference itself may not prove to be an adequate solution. He states that “Haftar can’t and won’t win, but Egypt and the Emiratis can’t afford to lose. The Egyptians want to control their Western neighbour, and they don’t want terrorism on their border. For them it’s existential.”25 Millett believes that the conflict will end when both sides suffer exhaustion.26

There have also been more optimistic stances. In August 2019, Ghassan Salame, the

Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNSMIL, suggested a three-step approach to end the conflict. He stated that there should be a humanitarian truce during Eid al-Adha, including confidence-building measures between the parties, a high-level conference of “concerned countries,” and finally a “Libyan meeting of leasing and influential personalities from all over the country.” 27

Conclusion

24 Ibid. 25 Ibid. 26 Ibid. 27 “Libya, November 2019 Monthly Forecast,” Security Council Report.

Southern Ontario Model United Nations Assembly XLVIII United Nations Security Council: The Situation in Libya: The Second Libyan Civil War

Much of the international community is beginning to realize the parallels between the recent Libyan conflicts and the situations in and Yemen. It is imperative that the

UNSC takes appropriate measures before the conflict escalates in severity. It is also important to recognize the various divisions that exist within the nation of Libya: ideological, regional, ethnic, and local. Furthermore, as a nation that has been under authoritarian rule for over 40 years, Libya has little understanding and experience with democracy and setting up a functional government with which civilians are happy. The citizens of Libya merely desire a “civilian state,” where the people of the country are able to have a say in the decision-making.28

Pertinent Questions

1. How can the UNSC encourage diplomatic and peaceful discussion between the

GNA and the LNA?

2. How can the UNSC allow the opinions of Libyan civilians to be taken into account

while resolving the conflict as quickly as possible?

3. What can the UNSC and UNSMIL learn from their past actions? For example, was

setting up the GNA an effective action? If not, what kinds of actions should be

taken in order to help Libya rather than hinder it?

4. How can the voices of the various different groups in Libya (ethnic, regional, etc.) be

heard in the final solution?

28 “ Clashes Reported in Libya as Sides Reject Diplomacy,” Al Jazeera.

Southern Ontario Model United Nations Assembly XLVIII United Nations Security Council: The Situation in Libya: The Second Libyan Civil War

Works Cited

“A Quick Guide to Libya's Main Players.” A quick guide to Libya's main players |

European Council on Foreign Relations. European Council on Foreign Relations.

Accessed November 4, 2019. https://www .ecfr.eu/mena/mapping_libya_conflict.

Al Jazeera. “Clashes Reported in Libya as Sides Reject Diplomacy.” News | Al Jazeera. Al

Jazeera, November 1, 2019.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/11/fresh-clashes-reported-libya-sides-reject-d

iplomacy-191101063534601.html.

Barbour, Nevill, and L. Carl Brown. “Attempt at Unity: Government of National

Accord.” Encyclopædia Britannica. Encyclopædia Britannica, inc., October 31, 2019.

https://www.britannica.com/place/Libya/Attempt-at-unity-Government-of-National

-Accord.

Guerin, Orla. “Libya in Chaos as Endless War Rumbles On.” BBC News. BBC, October

27, 2019. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-49971678.

“Libya Profile - Timeline.” BBC News. BBC, April 9, 2019.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13755445.

Southern Ontario Model United Nations Assembly XLVIII United Nations Security Council: The Situation in Libya: The Second Libyan Civil War

“Libya, November 2019 Monthly Forecast.” Security Council Report. Security Council

Report, October 31, 2019.

https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2019-11/libya-9.php.

“Libyan Army Agrees Partial Ceasefire with Militias.” BBC News. BBC, January 19, 2015.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-30875265.

“Why Is Libya so Lawless?” BBC News. BBC, April 10, 2019.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-24472322.