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Concentration and Consistency Results for Canonical and Curved Exponential-Family Models of Random Graphs
CONCENTRATION AND CONSISTENCY RESULTS FOR CANONICAL AND CURVED EXPONENTIAL-FAMILY MODELS OF RANDOM GRAPHS BY MICHAEL SCHWEINBERGER AND JONATHAN STEWART Rice University Statistical inference for exponential-family models of random graphs with dependent edges is challenging. We stress the importance of additional structure and show that additional structure facilitates statistical inference. A simple example of a random graph with additional structure is a random graph with neighborhoods and local dependence within neighborhoods. We develop the first concentration and consistency results for maximum likeli- hood and M-estimators of a wide range of canonical and curved exponential- family models of random graphs with local dependence. All results are non- asymptotic and applicable to random graphs with finite populations of nodes, although asymptotic consistency results can be obtained as well. In addition, we show that additional structure can facilitate subgraph-to-graph estimation, and present concentration results for subgraph-to-graph estimators. As an ap- plication, we consider popular curved exponential-family models of random graphs, with local dependence induced by transitivity and parameter vectors whose dimensions depend on the number of nodes. 1. Introduction. Models of network data have witnessed a surge of interest in statistics and related areas [e.g., 31]. Such data arise in the study of, e.g., social networks, epidemics, insurgencies, and terrorist networks. Since the work of Holland and Leinhardt in the 1970s [e.g., 21], it is known that network data exhibit a wide range of dependencies induced by transitivity and other interesting network phenomena [e.g., 39]. Transitivity is a form of triadic closure in the sense that, when a node k is connected to two distinct nodes i and j, then i and j are likely to be connected as well, which suggests that edges are dependent [e.g., 39]. -
Use of Statistical Tables
TUTORIAL | SCOPE USE OF STATISTICAL TABLES Lucy Radford, Jenny V Freeman and Stephen J Walters introduce three important statistical distributions: the standard Normal, t and Chi-squared distributions PREVIOUS TUTORIALS HAVE LOOKED at hypothesis testing1 and basic statistical tests.2–4 As part of the process of statistical hypothesis testing, a test statistic is calculated and compared to a hypothesised critical value and this is used to obtain a P- value. This P-value is then used to decide whether the study results are statistically significant or not. It will explain how statistical tables are used to link test statistics to P-values. This tutorial introduces tables for three important statistical distributions (the TABLE 1. Extract from two-tailed standard Normal, t and Chi-squared standard Normal table. Values distributions) and explains how to use tabulated are P-values corresponding them with the help of some simple to particular cut-offs and are for z examples. values calculated to two decimal places. STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION TABLE 1 The Normal distribution is widely used in statistics and has been discussed in z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.050.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 detail previously.5 As the mean of a Normally distributed variable can take 0.00 1.0000 0.9920 0.9840 0.9761 0.9681 0.9601 0.9522 0.9442 0.9362 0.9283 any value (−∞ to ∞) and the standard 0.10 0.9203 0.9124 0.9045 0.8966 0.8887 0.8808 0.8729 0.8650 0.8572 0.8493 deviation any positive value (0 to ∞), 0.20 0.8415 0.8337 0.8259 0.8181 0.8103 0.8206 0.7949 0.7872 0.7795 0.7718 there are an infinite number of possible 0.30 0.7642 0.7566 0.7490 0.7414 0.7339 0.7263 0.7188 0.7114 0.7039 0.6965 Normal distributions. -
5. the Student T Distribution
Virtual Laboratories > 4. Special Distributions > 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 5. The Student t Distribution In this section we will study a distribution that has special importance in statistics. In particular, this distribution will arise in the study of a standardized version of the sample mean when the underlying distribution is normal. The Probability Density Function Suppose that Z has the standard normal distribution, V has the chi-squared distribution with n degrees of freedom, and that Z and V are independent. Let Z T= √V/n In the following exercise, you will show that T has probability density function given by −(n +1) /2 Γ((n + 1) / 2) t2 f(t)= 1 + , t∈ℝ ( n ) √n π Γ(n / 2) 1. Show that T has the given probability density function by using the following steps. n a. Show first that the conditional distribution of T given V=v is normal with mean 0 a nd variance v . b. Use (a) to find the joint probability density function of (T,V). c. Integrate the joint probability density function in (b) with respect to v to find the probability density function of T. The distribution of T is known as the Student t distribution with n degree of freedom. The distribution is well defined for any n > 0, but in practice, only positive integer values of n are of interest. This distribution was first studied by William Gosset, who published under the pseudonym Student. In addition to supplying the proof, Exercise 1 provides a good way of thinking of the t distribution: the t distribution arises when the variance of a mean 0 normal distribution is randomized in a certain way. -
Chapter 8 Fundamental Sampling Distributions And
CHAPTER 8 FUNDAMENTAL SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS AND DATA DESCRIPTIONS 8.1 Random Sampling pling procedure, it is desirable to choose a random sample in the sense that the observations are made The basic idea of the statistical inference is that we independently and at random. are allowed to draw inferences or conclusions about a Random Sample population based on the statistics computed from the sample data so that we could infer something about Let X1;X2;:::;Xn be n independent random variables, the parameters and obtain more information about the each having the same probability distribution f (x). population. Thus we must make sure that the samples Define X1;X2;:::;Xn to be a random sample of size must be good representatives of the population and n from the population f (x) and write its joint proba- pay attention on the sampling bias and variability to bility distribution as ensure the validity of statistical inference. f (x1;x2;:::;xn) = f (x1) f (x2) f (xn): ··· 8.2 Some Important Statistics It is important to measure the center and the variabil- ity of the population. For the purpose of the inference, we study the following measures regarding to the cen- ter and the variability. 8.2.1 Location Measures of a Sample The most commonly used statistics for measuring the center of a set of data, arranged in order of mag- nitude, are the sample mean, sample median, and sample mode. Let X1;X2;:::;Xn represent n random variables. Sample Mean To calculate the average, or mean, add all values, then Bias divide by the number of individuals. -
Chapter 4: Central Tendency and Dispersion
Central Tendency and Dispersion 4 In this chapter, you can learn • how the values of the cases on a single variable can be summarized using measures of central tendency and measures of dispersion; • how the central tendency can be described using statistics such as the mode, median, and mean; • how the dispersion of scores on a variable can be described using statistics such as a percent distribution, minimum, maximum, range, and standard deviation along with a few others; and • how a variable’s level of measurement determines what measures of central tendency and dispersion to use. Schooling, Politics, and Life After Death Once again, we will use some questions about 1980 GSS young adults as opportunities to explain and demonstrate the statistics introduced in the chapter: • Among the 1980 GSS young adults, are there both believers and nonbelievers in a life after death? Which is the more common view? • On a seven-attribute political party allegiance variable anchored at one end by “strong Democrat” and at the other by “strong Republican,” what was the most Democratic attribute used by any of the 1980 GSS young adults? The most Republican attribute? If we put all 1980 95 96 PART II :: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS GSS young adults in order from the strongest Democrat to the strongest Republican, what is the political party affiliation of the person in the middle? • What was the average number of years of schooling completed at the time of the survey by 1980 GSS young adults? Were most of these twentysomethings pretty close to the average on -
The Probability Lifesaver: Order Statistics and the Median Theorem
The Probability Lifesaver: Order Statistics and the Median Theorem Steven J. Miller December 30, 2015 Contents 1 Order Statistics and the Median Theorem 3 1.1 Definition of the Median 5 1.2 Order Statistics 10 1.3 Examples of Order Statistics 15 1.4 TheSampleDistributionoftheMedian 17 1.5 TechnicalboundsforproofofMedianTheorem 20 1.6 TheMedianofNormalRandomVariables 22 2 • Greetings again! In this supplemental chapter we develop the theory of order statistics in order to prove The Median Theorem. This is a beautiful result in its own, but also extremely important as a substitute for the Central Limit Theorem, and allows us to say non- trivial things when the CLT is unavailable. Chapter 1 Order Statistics and the Median Theorem The Central Limit Theorem is one of the gems of probability. It’s easy to use and its hypotheses are satisfied in a wealth of problems. Many courses build towards a proof of this beautiful and powerful result, as it truly is ‘central’ to the entire subject. Not to detract from the majesty of this wonderful result, however, what happens in those instances where it’s unavailable? For example, one of the key assumptions that must be met is that our random variables need to have finite higher moments, or at the very least a finite variance. What if we were to consider sums of Cauchy random variables? Is there anything we can say? This is not just a question of theoretical interest, of mathematicians generalizing for the sake of generalization. The following example from economics highlights why this chapter is more than just of theoretical interest. -
Notes Mean, Median, Mode & Range
Notes Mean, Median, Mode & Range How Do You Use Mode, Median, Mean, and Range to Describe Data? There are many ways to describe the characteristics of a set of data. The mode, median, and mean are all called measures of central tendency. These measures of central tendency and range are described in the table below. The mode of a set of data Use the mode to show which describes which value occurs value in a set of data occurs most frequently. If two or more most often. For the set numbers occur the same number {1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 10}, of times and occur more often the mode is 1 because it occurs Mode than all the other numbers in the most frequently. set, those numbers are all modes for the data set. If each number in the set occurs the same number of times, the set of data has no mode. The median of a set of data Use the median to show which describes what value is in the number in a set of data is in the middle if the set is ordered from middle when the numbers are greatest to least or from least to listed in order. greatest. If there are an even For the set {1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 10}, number of values, the median is the median is 3 because it is in the average of the two middle the middle when the numbers are Median values. Half of the values are listed in order. greater than the median, and half of the values are less than the median. -
Sampling Student's T Distribution – Use of the Inverse Cumulative
Sampling Student’s T distribution – use of the inverse cumulative distribution function William T. Shaw Department of Mathematics, King’s College, The Strand, London WC2R 2LS, UK With the current interest in copula methods, and fat-tailed or other non-normal distributions, it is appropriate to investigate technologies for managing marginal distributions of interest. We explore “Student’s” T distribution, survey its simulation, and present some new techniques for simulation. In particular, for a given real (not necessarily integer) value n of the number of degrees of freedom, −1 we give a pair of power series approximations for the inverse, Fn ,ofthe cumulative distribution function (CDF), Fn.Wealsogivesomesimpleandvery fast exact and iterative techniques for defining this function when n is an even −1 integer, based on the observation that for such cases the calculation of Fn amounts to the solution of a reduced-form polynomial equation of degree n − 1. We also explain the use of Cornish–Fisher expansions to define the inverse CDF as the composition of the inverse CDF for the normal case with a simple polynomial map. The methods presented are well adapted for use with copula and quasi-Monte-Carlo techniques. 1 Introduction There is much interest in many areas of financial modeling on the use of copulas to glue together marginal univariate distributions where there is no easy canonical multivariate distribution, or one wishes to have flexibility in the mechanism for combination. One of the more interesting marginal distributions is the “Student’s” T distribution. This statistical distribution was published by W. Gosset in 1908. -
Volatility Modeling Using the Student's T Distribution
Volatility Modeling Using the Student’s t Distribution Maria S. Heracleous Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economics Aris Spanos, Chair Richard Ashley Raman Kumar Anya McGuirk Dennis Yang August 29, 2003 Blacksburg, Virginia Keywords: Student’s t Distribution, Multivariate GARCH, VAR, Exchange Rates Copyright 2003, Maria S. Heracleous Volatility Modeling Using the Student’s t Distribution Maria S. Heracleous (ABSTRACT) Over the last twenty years or so the Dynamic Volatility literature has produced a wealth of uni- variateandmultivariateGARCHtypemodels.Whiletheunivariatemodelshavebeenrelatively successful in empirical studies, they suffer from a number of weaknesses, such as unverifiable param- eter restrictions, existence of moment conditions and the retention of Normality. These problems are naturally more acute in the multivariate GARCH type models, which in addition have the problem of overparameterization. This dissertation uses the Student’s t distribution and follows the Probabilistic Reduction (PR) methodology to modify and extend the univariate and multivariate volatility models viewed as alternative to the GARCH models. Its most important advantage is that it gives rise to internally consistent statistical models that do not require ad hoc parameter restrictions unlike the GARCH formulations. Chapters 1 and 2 provide an overview of my dissertation and recent developments in the volatil- ity literature. In Chapter 3 we provide an empirical illustration of the PR approach for modeling univariate volatility. Estimation results suggest that the Student’s t AR model is a parsimonious and statistically adequate representation of exchange rate returns and Dow Jones returns data. -
The Value at the Mode in Multivariate T Distributions: a Curiosity Or Not?
The value at the mode in multivariate t distributions: a curiosity or not? Christophe Ley and Anouk Neven Universit´eLibre de Bruxelles, ECARES and D´epartement de Math´ematique,Campus Plaine, boulevard du Triomphe, CP210, B-1050, Brussels, Belgium Universit´edu Luxembourg, UR en math´ematiques,Campus Kirchberg, 6, rue Richard Coudenhove-Kalergi, L-1359, Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] Abstract: It is a well-known fact that multivariate Student t distributions converge to multivariate Gaussian distributions as the number of degrees of freedom ν tends to infinity, irrespective of the dimension k ≥ 1. In particular, the Student's value at the mode (that is, the normalizing ν+k Γ( 2 ) constant obtained by evaluating the density at the center) cν;k = k=2 ν converges towards (πν) Γ( 2 ) the Gaussian value at the mode c = 1 . In this note, we prove a curious fact: c tends k (2π)k=2 ν;k monotonically to ck for each k, but the monotonicity changes from increasing in dimension k = 1 to decreasing in dimensions k ≥ 3 whilst being constant in dimension k = 2. A brief discussion raises the question whether this a priori curious finding is a curiosity, in fine. AMS 2000 subject classifications: Primary 62E10; secondary 60E05. Keywords and phrases: Gamma function, Gaussian distribution, value at the mode, Student t distribution, tail weight. 1. Foreword. One of the first things we learn about Student t distributions is the fact that, when the degrees of freedom ν tend to infinity, we retrieve the Gaussian distribution, which has the lightest tails in the Student family of distributions. -
Approximating the Distribution of the Product of Two Normally Distributed Random Variables
S S symmetry Article Approximating the Distribution of the Product of Two Normally Distributed Random Variables Antonio Seijas-Macías 1,2 , Amílcar Oliveira 2,3 , Teresa A. Oliveira 2,3 and Víctor Leiva 4,* 1 Departamento de Economía, Universidade da Coruña, 15071 A Coruña, Spain; [email protected] 2 CEAUL, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1649-014 Lisboa, Portugal; [email protected] (A.O.); [email protected] (T.A.O.) 3 Departamento de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade Aberta, 1269-001 Lisboa, Portugal 4 Escuela de Ingeniería Industrial, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso 2362807, Chile * Correspondence: [email protected] or [email protected] Received: 21 June 2020; Accepted: 18 July 2020; Published: 22 July 2020 Abstract: The distribution of the product of two normally distributed random variables has been an open problem from the early years in the XXth century. First approaches tried to determinate the mathematical and statistical properties of the distribution of such a product using different types of functions. Recently, an improvement in computational techniques has performed new approaches for calculating related integrals by using numerical integration. Another approach is to adopt any other distribution to approximate the probability density function of this product. The skew-normal distribution is a generalization of the normal distribution which considers skewness making it flexible. In this work, we approximate the distribution of the product of two normally distributed random variables using a type of skew-normal distribution. The influence of the parameters of the two normal distributions on the approximation is explored. When one of the normally distributed variables has an inverse coefficient of variation greater than one, our approximation performs better than when both normally distributed variables have inverse coefficients of variation less than one. -
Calculating Variance and Standard Deviation
VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION Recall that the range is the difference between the upper and lower limits of the data. While this is important, it does have one major disadvantage. It does not describe the variation among the variables. For instance, both of these sets of data have the same range, yet their values are definitely different. 90, 90, 90, 98, 90 Range = 8 1, 6, 8, 1, 9, 5 Range = 8 To better describe the variation, we will introduce two other measures of variation—variance and standard deviation (the variance is the square of the standard deviation). These measures tell us how much the actual values differ from the mean. The larger the standard deviation, the more spread out the values. The smaller the standard deviation, the less spread out the values. This measure is particularly helpful to teachers as they try to find whether their students’ scores on a certain test are closely related to the class average. To find the standard deviation of a set of values: a. Find the mean of the data b. Find the difference (deviation) between each of the scores and the mean c. Square each deviation d. Sum the squares e. Dividing by one less than the number of values, find the “mean” of this sum (the variance*) f. Find the square root of the variance (the standard deviation) *Note: In some books, the variance is found by dividing by n. In statistics it is more useful to divide by n -1. EXAMPLE Find the variance and standard deviation of the following scores on an exam: 92, 95, 85, 80, 75, 50 SOLUTION First we find the mean of the data: 92+95+85+80+75+50 477 Mean = = = 79.5 6 6 Then we find the difference between each score and the mean (deviation).