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The Extent of Novel Ecosystems: Long in Time and Broad in Space Michael P

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The Extent of Novel Ecosystems: Long in Time and Broad in Space Michael P Chapter 8 The Extent of Novel Ecosystems: Long in Time and Broad in Space Michael P. Perring1 and Erle C. Ellis2 1Ecosystem Restoration and Intervention Ecology (ERIE) Research Group, School of Plant Biology, University of Western Australia, Australia 2Geography & Environmental Systems, University of Maryland, USA 8.1 INTRODUCTION ing future areas of research. In particular, we highlight the difficulties associated with inferring novel ecosys- Novel ecosystems are not new. Recognition of their tem extent and in distinguishing between hybrid and extent and significance, particularly in conservation novel ecosystems from currently available data. and restoration circles, has been slow however and We consider the application of alternative land clas- their place in conservation management engenders sification systems, and also discuss the tension that debate (Hobbs et al. 2009). In this chapter, we use spa- arises when applying the novel ecosystem concept tially explicit historical models to investigate how novel (see Chapters 5 and 6) to spatially explicit models of ecosystems have spread across the terrestrial biosphere the biosphere. Our message remains clear however: in the last 8000 years, and we also show their likely human-caused environmental change is here to stay current distribution in both the terrestrial and marine and will continue to affect the world’s ecosystems by realms. Our aim here is to demonstrate that novel rearranging biota and altering abiotic conditions. If ecosystems are now widespread, can be ancient and humanity intends to prosper over the long term while deserve greater consideration in our efforts to manage retaining the evolutionary heritage of our planet, ecol- and conserve the biosphere for humanity and other ogists need to understand where novel ecosystems species over the long term. We discuss how archeologi- have come from and how to manage these fundamen- cal and paleoecological approaches might confirm the tally altered and dynamic ecosystems by applying patterns of spread we have modeled, as well as detail- coupled socio-ecological theory to real-world practice. Novel Ecosystems: Intervening in the New Ecological World Order, First Edition. Edited by Richard J. Hobbs, Eric S. Higgs, and Carol M. Hall. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Published 2013 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 66 The extent of novel ecosystems: Long in time and broad in space 67 8.2 MAPPING THE SPATIAL EXTENT tion density within marine areas, nor are there specific ANDEMPORAL T TRAJECTORY OF types of land use except for some areas designated as NOVEL ECOSYSTEMS marine protected zones or sites of fish farms; utilizing population and land-use proxies to delimit the extent Chapter 5 outlined how novel ecosystems are formed of marine novel ecosystems is therefore not a viable when intensively and productively used land or sea is option. However, human use of the marine environ- abandoned, or ‘wild’ land or sea is altered by human ment through fishing or through the transfer of goods activities (Hobbs et al. 2006). Human actions can be has undoubtedly created novel marine ecosystems intentional or accidental, and their influence on eco- directly. Species transfer, particularly of microscopic systems can be observed onsite or offsite. To delimit organisms including viruses and cholera bacteria (Ruiz novel ecosystems the ecological changes caused by et al. 2000), around the world has been aided by human action must represent the formation of novel the release of ballast water (Carlton and Geller 1993). persistent states, representing the crossing of critical Invasions by these and macroscopic organisms have thresholds away from their state as undisturbed by potentially large ecological and evolutionary conse- human activity (see also Chapters 5 and 6 and Hobbs quences (Grosholz 2002). Demand for particular fish et al. 2009). The recognition of these critical thresh- species has led to declining ‘mean trophic levels’ (i.e. olds can aid managers in their decisions as to how to fewer top-level predators and increased catches of fish manage these systems (see Chapters 3 and 18). species lower down the food web which, by definition, However, mapping such thresholds and therefore have a lower trophic position than the predators) in the the extent of novel ecosystems at a global scale is more world’s oceans (Pauly et al. 1998; Jennings et al. 2001, than difficult given the data that are currently availa- 2002) and consequent community changes (Myers ble. Mapping is difficult even at local and regional and Worm 2003). These changes threaten the delivery scales in many regions, particularly as ‘irreversible of ocean ecosystem services (Worm et al. 2006), al- thresholds’ refers to economic and social as well as though the magnitude of the problem is sometimes ecological barriers (see Chapters 3 and 18). debated (Holker et al. 2007; Wilberg and Miller 2007). Here we instead investigate the use of proxy varia- In addition to direct onsite influences on marine bles in an attempt to delimit the current extent of novel systems, offsite influences have also created novel ecosystems both on land and at sea. From these proxies, marine ecosystems. Coral reef systems appear to be such as the spatial extent of human use of land, novel particularly susceptible to human-induced disruption ecosystem extent may be inferred and estimated; the with community change observed due to ocean tem- quality of these proxy estimates which (on land at perature rise, pollution of surface water from agricul- least) do not incorporate data on biotic change demands tural and industrial run-off (Fabricius 2005) and careful consideration however, as we discuss here. We disease (Chapter 12). In extremis, high-temperature utilize a map of current human-induced ecological events potentially lead to massive coral bleaching effects on the marine sphere to suggest the global depending on the susceptibility of the reef due to other extent of novel marine ecosystem development. We then factors such as species composition and the light envi- use spatially explicit historical models of global popula- ronment (Fitt et al. 2001; Smith et al. 2005). One tion and land use to infer novel ecosystem extent on of the most noticeable effects of terrestrial human land, both now and over the past 8000 years. Finally, land-use intensification has been the creation of algal we integrate these estimates to outline how to create blooms through non-point source pollution with a synthetic overview of global novel ecosystem extent the subsequent formation of hypoxia in susceptible and suggest other lines of evidence that could corrobo- ocean basins. Nitrogen and phosphorus run-off have rate or revise the patterns we have elucidated here. increased dramatically since the 1950s; humanity has quadrupled the environmental flow of phosphorus (Elser and Bennett 2011) and nitrogen output from 8.3 MARINE NOVEL ECOSYSTEMS rivers had increased 20-fold as much as 15 years ago (Howarth et al. 1996). Hypoxia formed from this nutri- Characterizing the spatial extent and temporal trajec- ent input leads to community change and the creation tory of novel ecosystems in the marine realm is not of novel interactions between tolerant species, typified easily tractable. There is no permanent human popula- by the annual formation of the Gulf of Mexico ‘dead 68 Novel ecosystems zone’ due to fertilizer and pesticide discharge from the Figure 8.1 shows that no ocean is free of human Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers (Rabalais et al. influence and consequent ecological change. Large 2002). areas of little ecological impact remain however, par- One globally pervasive human-caused change has ticularly near the poles (although note Blight and been ocean acidification precipitated by rising atmos- Ainley 2008). Furthermore, there are particular areas pheric CO2 concentration. This alters ocean ecosys- that are heavily influenced by human activity which tems (Beaufort et al. 2011) but its effect together with may delimit novel ecosystem extent if we assume that temperature rise on biodiverse coral reefs has been the greater ecological change that this human activity particularly highlighted (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007; has wrought corresponds to the presence of novel eco- Pandolfi et al. 2011). Irreversible reef decline has been systems. These novel systems are concentrated around mooted as a logical endpoint of the changes humanity coastlines, which is unsurprising given the conjunc- is witnessing, due to an inability to form carbonate tion of high population densities leading to direct use with decreasing aragonite saturation state (Hoegh- and the high input of inorganic and organic pollutants Guldberg et al. 2007). Instead, increasingly novel from draining watersheds and geographic gradients ecosystems will form in the reef’s place. Recent work over short distances, leading to multiple ecosystem suggests that more nuanced changes may occur types in a single square. Based on degree of ecological however, with some reef species showing the potential change, the areas of greatest novel ecosystem extent to adapt, and carbonate formation actually increasing include the North and Norwegian (Baltic) Seas, the despite the change in saturation state. The current South and East China Seas, the Eastern Caribbean, the rapidly changing biosphere does not however appear Mediterranean, the North American eastern seaboard, to have a precursor in the fossil record that otherwise the Persian Gulf, the Bering Sea and the waters around shows
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