No. 1. 2017 Qr. 1 ISSN 2543-9839 LECH KACZYŃSKI LNG TERMINAL- ŚWINOUJŚCIE POLAND
no. 1. 2017 qr. 1 ISSN 2543-9839 LECH KACZYŃSKI LNG TERMINAL- ŚWINOUJŚCIE POLAND. Editorial
Dear Readers
t is a great pleasure to present to you the first issue of The Warsaw Institute Review, a free Polish magazine by The Warsaw Institute Foundation, prepared Iespecially for English-speaking readers around the world.
The goal of The Warsaw Institute Review team is to present a broad spectrum of topics concerning Poland, a leading East-Central European country in the form of analytical articles on political, legal, economic, social, historical and institutional issues. The authors of the articles in The Warsaw Institute Review include analysts and experts on the one hand, and, on the other, people who have an active and practical influence on Poland’s political, economic and cultural life.
In the first issue, we draw attention to matters of energy security in Poland and East-Central Europe, presented in articles by Piotr Naimski, PhD, Secretary of State in the Chancellery of the Prime Minister and founder of the Polish energy security school, and Janusz Kowalski, former vice president of the Polish Oil and Gas Company. In this issue, we also present the current geopolitical situation in East-Central Europe with a particular focus on two of Poland’s neighbors - Russia and Germany.
As a historian and co-author of a biography on former President of Poland Lech Kaczyński (Lech Kaczyński 1949- -2010: A Political Biography, Poznań 2013), a man considered
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to be the initiator of the national politics of memory, I encourage you to familiarize yourself with articles on The the recent history of Poland, and on topics little-known Warsaw in the international historical discourse. These include Institute the history of the anti-communist underground in the State Review behind the Iron Curtain chronicled by Filip Musiał, PhD and the history of the creation of the Warsaw Uprising © Copyright 2017 Museum in Warsaw described by Tymoteusz Pruchnik. The Warsaw Institute Foundation Warsaw, Poland I also encourage you to ensure that you continue to receive Editor-in-Chief your free copy of The Warsaw Institute Review quarterly Anna Karolina Piekarska by filling out the registration form [email protected] at www.WarsawInstitute.Review.
Editorial Secretary Łukasz Strzelecki
Editorial Assistant Anna Karolina Piekarska Krzysztof Kamiński Editor-in-Chief of The Warsaw Institute Review
Translations and Editing Nicholas Siekierski
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The opinions given and the positions held in the materials published in the Warsaw Institute Review solely reflect the views of the authors. The publication is funded exclusively by private means.
ISSN 2543-9839
4 The Warsaw Institute Review Contents
E7nergY security Special48 Forces ECONO69MY Piotr Naimski: Jan Gajewski: Rafał Zgorzelski: Starting Points for Putin’s Chekists Modern patriotism Developing a New Energy Policy for Poland
EnergY Security ARMY Piotr Naimski: Maciej Kucharczyk: Starting Points for Modernizing Poland’s Developing a New 58 Armed Forces Energy Policy 7 for Poland ECONOMY Rafał Zgorzelski: EnergY Security 69 Modern Patriotism Janusz Kowalski: foreign affairs Will Poland Liberate Tomasz Kijewski: East-Central Europe 74 Polish eagles in Canada 13 from Gazprom’s Dictates? History GEOPOLITICS Filip Musiał: Jan Gajewski: The Armed Independence 20 Russia 2018 Underground in Poland 1944-1956/1963 genesis, aims, GEOPOLITICS 80 operations Krzysztof Rak: Poland worth visiting Germany’s Inglorious Tymoteusz Pruchnik: Isolation 29 91 The Warsaw Uprising Museum GEOPOLITICS MODERN TECHNOLOGIES Paweł Szefernaker: Roch Baranowski: Central Eastern Europe 98 Missing The Future 39 Innovators Summit MODERN TECHNOLOGIES SPECIAL FORCES Sebastian Sakowski: Jan Gajewski: Analytics and big data 48 Putin’s Chekists 104 in the energy sector
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PIOTR NAIMSKI - SECRETARY OF STATE AT THE CHANCELLERY OF THE PRIME MINISTER, GOVERNMENT PLENIPOTENTIARY FOR STRATEGIC ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. FOUNDER OF THE POLISH SCHOOL OF ENERGY SECURITY.
6 The Warsaw Institute Review © Marcin Bielecki (PAP) Starting Points for Developing a New Energy Policy for Poland Piotr Naimski, PhD
Poland is to remain sovereign a huge investment effort in the coming in the field of energy supplies. Energy years. production based on domestic energy resources must provide consumers We will achieve current climate policy with uninterrupted and competitive commitments adopted by Poland in the energy supplies. The importation of raw Paris Agreement and those resulting materials and energy can only from EU regulations. At the same time, be a supplement. we are determined to defend Poland’s right to choose its own path to achieve It is safe to assume that the demand CO2 emission reduction targets. for energy in Poland will not decrease before 2050. The European emissions trading system should be applied in Poland by taking Energy efficiency, understood as saving into account its exceptionally high (by energy, will be an important factor European standards) dependence on contributing to energy security and the coal as an energy source. competitiveness of Polish industry. Further attempts to increase CO2 Black and brown coal will remain the reduction commitments conflict with basic energy sources in Poland until Poland’s economic strategy, they will be 2050. harmful to the energy sector and will reduce the competitiveness of Poland’s The use of coal as a raw material must be economy. based on the latest, high-performance, clean technologies, both directly in Renewable energy technologies will power units and in the field of chemical develop in Poland based on market coal processing. principles of competition. The support models used in some EU countries We will maintain coal-based electricity cannot be duplicated in Poland, generation of around 30 GW until 2050. primarily due to the fact that end consumers of energy cannot bear High-emission power plants, non- the burden of the costs. -compliant with European standards and at the end of their lifecycle, will be The strategic direction of research replaced by new ones. This will mean and investment will be energy storage
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and modern coal technologies. New, innovative solutions in this area will be supported by the government and energy companies, with participation from the state treasury.
Natural gas will remain an important raw material for the Polish economy. We will maintain our existing level of production and will complete the plan to diversify the types and sources of energy supply from abroad. We anticipate that in 2022 Poland will be connected by pipeline to the Norwegian continental shelf through the Danish transmission system.
Deliveries through the northern gas pipeline and from the Świnoujście gas terminal, as well as the anticipated linking of Poland with Lithuania, Ukraine, Slovakia and the Czech Republic through interconnectors, will enable the creation of a gas hub in Poland important for Central Europe.
The transmission of energy, natural gas, petroleum and fuels, as well as the availability of sufficient quantities so-called “energy mix”, the share of storage for raw materials and fuels, of different primary sources in meeting must remain an essential element for the the country’s energy needs. Power security of supplies. generation technologies need to be tailored to the needs of the country, their Poland’s energy security requires capabilities and profitability, and not to coordinated action in the international the a priori energy mix of 2050. arena between those leading on this issue in the Ministry of Energy and Maintenance of strategic reserves of other ministries, foremost in the fuels and extraction potential, including Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the protection of national strategic fuel Ministry of the Environment, and deposits from construction that would strategic companies in the electricity, prevent their future use, especially oil and gas sectors, with the state brown coal deposits. treasury playing a dominant role. Poland must methodically develop Poland must guarantee its participation systemic heating as the primary means in the creation of energy and gas of supplying heat to consumers in high markets at the European level to population density areas. In addition, a degree safeguarding the interests in the mid and long term, the of the Polish economy and the country’s combustion of fuels in individual home energy security requirements. installations should be abandoned, in favor of electric heating (including Actions and investments undertaken on heat pumps), solar thermal connectors the basis of the strategy adopted or other emission-free forms for energy policy will determine the of supplying heat.
8 The Warsaw Institute Review Starting Points for Developing a New Energy Policy for Poland
© Marcin Bielecki (PAP)
ŚWINOUJŚCIE, JUNE 26, 2016. ON JUNE 25, THE ARCTIC PRINCESS LNG TANKER ARRIVED AT THE PRESIDENT LECH KACZYŃSKI TERMINAL IN ŚWINOUJŚCIE. THE NORWEGIAN VESSEL DELIVERED APPROXIMATELY 140,000 CUBIC METERS OF LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS. NORWAY IS ANOTHER SOURCE OF LNG SUPPLIES TO POLAND, APART FROM QATAR. THE NORWEGIAN TANKER WAS THE FIRST ONE WITH SPHERICAL TANKS SEEN IN SWINOUJSCIE. THESE ARE INDEPENDENT, SELF-SUPPORTING STRUCTURES OF THE “MOSS” TYPE. “THE NORWEGIAN VESSEL DELIVERED CA. 84 MILLION CUBIC METERS OF GAS FUEL IN TOTAL, IN NORMAL CONDITIONS. THIS WAS THE FIRST LNG SPOT DELIVERY ACCEPTED BY THE TERMINAL. THE UNLOADING OF ARCTIC PRINCESS WAS PLANNED TO TAKE AROUND 24 HOURS. THE PROCESS INVOLVED PUMPING OF LIQUEFIED GAS WITH THE USE OF UNLOADING ARMS. GAS MAINTAINED AT THE TEMPERATURE OF CA. – 162°C WAS TRANSPORTED FROM THE VESSEL TO TWO TANKS (EACH OF CA. 160 THOUSAND M3 CAPACITY). SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE LNG RE-GASIFICATION PROCESS (I.E. CONVERSION FROM LIQUID TO GASEOUS FORM) WAS TAKING PLACE. THE NATURAL GAS THUS OBTAINED WAS PUMPED TO THE NATIONAL TRANSMISSION NETWORK.
he energy sector should rely be emphasized that decisions undertaken on the country’s own raw in the field of energy will both directly materials and technological and indirectly influence other segments resources and at the same of the domestic economy. In this context, Ttime support the country’s overall it is crucial to ask about the vision for economic and industrial policy. This change in the structure of the creation especially means that these processes of added value to GDP. At present, with should be as cost-effective as possible the multiplier effect, the energy sector to stimulate necessary investments generates nearly 8% of added value and and lead to the transformation of the creates nearly 600,000 jobs both directly government-established sector. It should and indirectly in related sectors.
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ŚWINOUJŚCIE, JUNE 18, 2016. LECH KACZYŃSKI LNG TERMINAL.
The assumed transformation in the • serious disturbances in the direction of a strong economy will functioning of energy markets require taking into account the challenges in Poland and other EU countries facing this sector. The most important (caused in part by massive subsidies ones include: for renewable energy sources, often not covering full production costs, • the need to implement highly capital- resulting in a lack of profitability intensive investment plans related for new investments), to the construction of new generation • practices observed in other countries capacity and the modernization based on protecting low energy prices of existing network and for industry by shifting costs to manufacturing assets, individual consumers, • the decline in the profitability of the • regulatory changes imposed by the EU electricity sector and the deteriorating not taking into account the specificities financial situation of domestic energy of the Polish energy sector. companies, • unstable investment conditions It is worth pointing out that the caused by EU climate policy investment direction indicated in the and the expected price increases energy policy will have a significant for CO2 emission allowances, impact on the future structure of energy
10 The Warsaw Institute Review Starting Points for Developing a New Energy Policy for Poland
in particular on fuel costs and CO2 emissions.
The basic conditions for the successful transformation of the energy sector include:
• stabilization of regulations covering the energy sector, • formulation and development of modern coal technologies (among others, the optimal selection of technologies for the Polish power industry using domestic and foreign solutions, including duoBLOCK technology, coal gasification, oxidation and CCU technology development), • coordinating mechanisms with the European Union to reduce the costs and risks of the development of modern, conventional energy and to obtain financing for new investments in conventional generators.
© Marcin Bielecki (PAP) Without neglecting work on the development of a comprehensive strategy for the Polish power industry for the next production in our country. In turn, 30-35 years, we must solve the immediate it will affect energy-related fuel production problems of coal mining transformation, (black and brown coal mining, gas which will ensure the supply of this raw extraction, biomass production), material during this period. We need production of equipment and machinery to provide financing for new investments for the mining and power industries, in the power sector, including and the condition of companies serving by introducing the power market the energy sector. The conventional energy and by the establishment of reasonable generation segment will be especially rules for the cooperation of energy important, where the investment time and gas system operators with neighbors is long, lasting 5-10 years and the life in the region, which does not undermine of the asset is nearly 40 years. the sovereignty of the Polish state in this regard. Without the successful resolution At the same time, when deciding of these issues, the implementation of the on the construction of new power plants, best long-term strategy will account should be taken of their impact be impossible. on the functioning of the National Electric Energy System and on the economic effectiveness of different change Piotr Naimski scenarios in the market environment, March 20, 2017
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© Paweł Supernak (PAP) Sopot, POLAND. SEPTEMBER 1, 2009. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
12 The Warsaw Institute Review Will Poland Liberate East- -Central Europe from Gazprom’s Dictates? Janusz Kowalski The victory of the conservatives of Jarosław Kaczyński’s party in 2015 in Poland signaled Warsaw’s retreat from the pro-Russian energy policy of 2007-2015, carried out by the liberals of Donald Tusk’s party.
n November 16, 2015, Beata Washington D.C., and not in Berlin Szydło became Prime or Moscow, the latter of which are Minister of Poland. carrying out a project regarded by some In October 2015, the as dangerous to the energy security Ocenter-right Law and Justice Party (PiS) of East-Central Europe, by building a defeated the liberal Civic Platform (PO) northern corridor for the transport of of Donald Tusk, the current President of Baltic Sea natural gas from the Russian the European Council, after eight years Federation (Nord Stream), bypassing in power. The PiS electoral victory in Poland and Ukraine. 2015 was crucial for energy security, not only in Poland, but also in East-Central Lech Kaczyński’s Testament Europe. Conservatives under More than 25 years after the fall the leadership of the PiS President of communism, East-Central Europe (former Prime Minister of Poland is still heavily dependent on hydrocarbon in 2006-2007) Jarosław Kaczyński supplies from Russia. Poland consumes supported by the President of Poland about 15 billion cubic meters of gas per Andrzej Duda (also of PiS) from the year, while domestic gas production beginning sought dynamically to make is only four billion cubic meters. Poland and this part of Europe energy Approximately ten billion cubic meters independent from Russian oil and gas. of the “blue fuel” are imported by the PiS politicians see a strategic, geopolitical government-controlled Polish Oil and partner in the energy sector for Poland in Gas Company (PGNiG) as part of
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a long-term gas contract with Gazprom, rested on two pillars. The first of these valid until December 31, 2022 (the Yamal was the construction of the only Baltic Contract). PGNiG also has a 20-year Sea LNG terminal on the Polish coast contract with Qatargas in its portfolio, to (Świnoujście) and the second one - the receive about 1.5 billion cubic meters of construction of a gas connection from gas after regasification. Meanwhile, there Poland through Denmark, to natural gas is a similar dependence on Russian crude deposits in Norway. The energy security oil. Two Polish oil companies: Orlen of Poland and Europe in the oil sector was in Płock and Grupa Lotos in Gdańsk, to be strengthened by the construction import nearly 90 percent of crude oil of a corridor to transport oil from the processed in Polish refineries from the Caspian Sea via Azerbaijan, Georgia Russian Federation. Immediately after and Ukraine, all the way to the Polish taking office in autumn 2015, Prime oil terminal in Gdańsk. From Gdańsk, Minister Beata Szydło returned to the the oil was to be exported further to program of diversification pushed by the customers in Europe and worldwide, PiS governments in 2005-2007 under including PKN Orlen’s Mažeikiai refinery the auspices of the then Polish President (Republic of Lithuania). At an energy Lech Kaczyński. Lech Kaczyński’s summit in Kraków in May 2007 and program of independence from Russian at another in Vilnius in October 2007, hydrocarbon supplies, coordinated by President Kaczyński effectively united the Dr. Piotr Naimski, Secretary of State at leaders of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ukraine the Ministry of the Economy of Poland, and Lithuania around the project to build counted on the realization of three a transport corridor for Caspian oil along infrastructure projects, strategic for the Odessa-Brody-Płock-Gdańsk route. Europe as a whole, only one of which has The personal involvement of the President been thus far completed. of Poland as the leader of East-Central European countries defending Georgia’s Poland’s program to become energy independence during the Russian independent from natural gas deliveries Federation’s invasion of the country in August 2008 resulted in part from the conviction of the need to defend the strategic interests of Poland, by aiming President Kaczyński to build channels for the import of hydrocarbons into Europe, independent effectively united the of Russia. leaders of Azerbaijan, The implementation of these three Georgia, Ukraine and key infrastructure investments: the construction of the LNG terminal Lithuania around in Świnoujście, the Odessa-Brody- the project to build a Płock-Gdańsk oil corridor and the gas connection of Poland-Denmark-Norway, transport corridor for was to end in 2012-2014. Unfortunately, the plan to make East-Central Europe Caspian oil along the independent of Russian natural gas and Odessa-Brody-Płock- crude oil was thwarted by the electoral victory of the Civic Platform in the Gdańsk route. accelerated parliamentary elections of autumn 2007.
14 The Warsaw Institute Review Will Poland Liberate East-Central Europe from Gazprom’s Dictates?
Tusk’s Russian Turn Civic Platform leader Donald Tusk, who became prime minister of Poland in In the international arena autumn 2007, immediately announced in 2006-2007, Jarosław a political reset in bilateral relations with Moscow. Just a few weeks after the Civic Kaczyński’s government Platform came to power, the project to build a gas connection with Norway, effectively blocked the which according to the PiS government construction of the first schedule was to be ready by the end of 2010, was halted. The news of Poland’s part of the German- withdrawal from the construction of an north-south gas connection independent Russian Nord Stream of Russia was most pleasing to the pipeline, the construction Kremlin and Gazprom, the former of which controls the latter. Another gift of which is tied to a to the Russian Federation from the new strategic plan to exclude Polish government was the limitation of Warsaw’s activity within the EU in the transmission of blocking the construction of the first section of the Nord Stream gas pipeline. Russian natural gas In the international arena in 2006- to the European Union 2007, Jarosław Kaczyński’s government effectively blocked the construction through Poland, Belarus, of the first part of the German-Russian Ukraine and Slovakia. Nord Stream pipeline, the construction of which is tied to a strategic plan to exclude the transmission of Russian of President Lech Kaczyński, who was natural gas to the European Union backed by the U.S. government, through Poland, Belarus, Ukraine and who gathered the leaders of the and Slovakia. Not only did the PO post-Soviet republics around this project, Government not take advantage of the were wasted. In the years preceding opportunity to block Nord Stream, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it also agreed to the shallow placement Azerbaijani oil reached Ukrainian of the first section of the pipeline at the and even Belarusian refineries, but never bottom of the Baltic Sea, thus limiting to the Polish refineries in Płock (PKN the prospects for expansion of the Polish Orlen) and Gdańsk (Lotos Group). port in Świnoujście, which may have Another blow to Polish plans to make problems with accepting some of the its economy independent from Russian largest ships in the world. In 2011, one gas was the signing in October 2010 of of the leaders of the Law and Justice a governmental annex to the long-term opposition, Joachim Brudziński, spoke gas contract, called the Yamal Contract, candidly about the “quiet consent” between Warsaw and Moscow. Under of the PO government to Nord Stream. the agreement, Poland increased its dependence on Gazprom by more than Donald Tusk’s government also blocked two billion cubic meters of natural gas the construction of a corridor for the annually, all the way until 2022. transport of oil along the Odessa-Brody- The government in Warsaw actually -Płock-Gdańsk route. Thus, the efforts gave Gazprom control over the strategic
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company Europol Gaz, which owns a 2037, Poland would not have been able 660-kilometer section of the Yamal gas to liberate itself from the monopolistic pipeline, and sends nearly 28 billion cubic dictates of Gazprom for several decades. meters of natural gas to Germany, France Fortunately, in late 2008, the PO and other Western European countries, government decided to continue building through Poland. Only thanks to the the LNG terminal in Świnoujście. determination of President Kaczyński, According to the PiS government’s who in the course of the Polish-Russian plans, the LNG terminal was meant gas negotiations from early 2009 to the to be finished by the end of 2012. fall of 2010, died in as-yet unexplained The construction of the terminal was circumstances in the Smoleńsk delayed from one year to the next, while catastrophe on April 10, 2010, and the increasing dependence on Gazprom at president of the opposition PiS party, the start by the PO government in the Jarosław Kaczyński, was a long-term gas autumn of 2010 limited the possibilities contract between Poland and the Russian of importing LNG after its planned start- Federation not extended for another 15 up. The Russian turn in Poland’s energy years from 2022 to 2037. The extension policy by Donald Tusk’s government was of the Yamal agreement, which as a relic even visible in the electric energy sector. of the Soviet era was concluded at the In 2012, the government suspended the governmental rather than a business level, construction of a coal-fired power plant was the initiative of the PO government. in Ostrołęka, which was supposed to If in 2010 the long-term gas contract guarantee the security of the electricity with Russia had been extended until supply to the north-eastern part of Poland
16 The Warsaw Institute Review Will Poland Liberate East-Central Europe from Gazprom’s Dictates? bordering Lithuania, Belarus and the Russian Federation (Kaliningrad Oblast). Prime Minister Beata An alternative to the Polish power plant was electricity delivered from a planned Szydło’s government, in nuclear power plant in Kaliningrad. its first weeks of work, Return to an active energy confirmed that the aim of security policy After the victory of the center-right in Polish policy is to return autumn 2015 in Poland, an immediate return to an active energy policy took to, after eight years, the place in Warsaw. Prime Minister Beata construction of a gas Szydło’s government, in its first weeks of work, confirmed that the aim of Polish connection with Norway policy is to return to, after eight years, (Norwegian Corridor). the construction of a gas connection with Norway (Norwegian Corridor). Greatly delayed in relation to the plans of 2005- It consists of five elements. The first is 2007, the LNG terminal in Świnoujście the construction of a tie-in on the Dutch began operations in June 2016, the side to the Norwegian delivery system namesake of which became the initiator in the North Sea, which will connect of its construction, President of Poland Denmark with Norway, and will enable Lech Kaczyński. In 2016, construction was the transmission of raw materials, resumed on the power plant in Ostrołęka, including PGNiG’s natural gas. Another crucial for the security of electricity supply necessary precondition for the creation of in north-eastern Poland. the Norwegian Corridor is the extension of the existing transmission capacity in Unfortunately, due to the ongoing Denmark from the west to the east and the occupation of part of the territory construction of an underwater gas pipeline of Ukraine by Russia, resuming the at the bottom of the Baltic Sea between construction of the Odessa-Brody- Poland and Denmark (the 200 km Baltic Płock-Gdańsk oil corridor does not seem Pipe interconnector). The project is to be possible in the foreseeable future. finalized by an expansion program for the Polish transmission system and the North Gate vs. Nord Stream construction of a new gas depot. To make Poland completely independent of Gazprom’s potential blackmail, the The Norwegian Corridor is part, along construction of the Norwegian Corridor with the LNG terminal launched in 2016, must be finished by the end of 2022, of a government project to build the when the Yamal Contract expires. When North Gate, thanks to which this part of the Norwegian Corridor is finished, ten Europe will be effectively independent billion cubic meters of natural gas will from gas supplies from Russia for the be transported into Poland annually, first time in its history. The North which will reach the receptive markets Gate is Poland’s effective response to of East-Central European countries, the Russian-German plan for making including Ukraine. The Norwegian part of Europe dependent on expensive Corridor is defined as the connection Russian raw materials. At present, the of the Norwegian continental shelf, LNG terminal in Świnoujście allows through Denmark, with the Polish coast. imports of up to five billion cubic meters
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decision of October 28, 2016 on the monopolization by Gazprom of the Nord The Norwegian Stream, onshore, OPAL gas pipeline running along the Polish-German border, Corridor is defined as with a capacity of around 36 billion cubic meters. Prime Minister Beata Szydło’s the connection of the government has strongly expressed its Norwegian continental concern to the European Commission, demanding respect for EU antitrust shelf, through Denmark, law against the German gas pipeline. In the event of a break in gas supplies with the Polish coast. from the east and the maintenance of Gazprom’s monopoly on the German of gas, and its expansion will increase gas pipeline, Polish energy security Poland’s import capacity to 7.5 billion would be severely endangered. Similar cubic meters. Although the construction action monopolizing gas transmission of the Norwegian Corridor has been met by Gazprom and its German partners with the official approval of the European is planned for the EUGAL gas pipeline, Commission, the plans for making another inland, Nord Stream pipeline East-Central Europe independent from in Germany with a capacity of 55 billion Gazprom’s monopoly are threatened by the cubic meters annually. Critics of the construction of the second section of the Nord Stream 2 project, led by the Polish Nord Stream pipeline, which is practically European Commission, are convinced and effectively supported by bureaucrats in that further expansion of Russian Brussels sympathetic to Gazprom. There is Gazprom’s domination in East-Central little doubt in Poland that if Nord Stream Europe should be prevented. Among the doubles its capacity from the current 55 countries insisting that the Nord Stream billion to 110 billion cubic meters, gas 2 project be inconsistent with EU law, shipments to Europe through Ukraine besides Poland, are Slovakia, Lithuania, and Belarus will immediately be shut off. Estonia, Latvia, Romania, Denmark and Through Nord Stream 2, Gazprom wants Sweden. to consolidate its market share in Europe in the face of increasing competition Pivotal 2017 from LNG and shrinking demand in the The center-right victory in Poland in 2015 European Union, and above all, continue reopened the possibility of breaking with to dictate high prices to East-Central Gazprom’s monopoly in East-Central European buyers. Europe. In order to implement the plan for Poland’s independence from Russian The tactical aim of Germany and Russia gas and, based on the Norwegian Corridor in the coming months is to guarantee and the expanded LNG terminal, building a monopoly on the land transport of a gas hub for East-Central Europe, Nord Stream on German territory for political decisions made at the end of 2017 the entire volume of gas sent from the in Poland will be key. This year, the final Russian Federation by the northern shape of the Norwegian Corridor should pipeline. This may actually block the be decided upon with partners from ability of other companies to freely use Denmark and Norway. existing gas pipelines connected to Nord Stream. This is the context in which to Already looking ahead to 2022, an interpret the European Commission’s important element of the diversification
18 The Warsaw Institute Review Will Poland Liberate East-Central Europe from Gazprom’s Dictates?
of gas supplies to Poland will be the part of Europe, something Germany construction of an import network for is keenly interested in along with Russia LNG by PGNiG. The LNG sector is the in their realization of the geopolitical only serious alternative in the event of project to build Nord Stream 2. Brussels the failure of the Norwegian Corridor poses a real and serious threat to project. That is why the Polish Oil and plans for the energy independence Gas Company is developing competencies of Europe, thanks to the North Gate in international LNG trade by opening built by Poland, based on the planned offices in London for example. In addition, new gas connection with Norway and in March 2017, PGNiG signed another the expanded gas port in Świnoujście. contract with Qatargas, the world’s leading The outcome of geopolitical clashes in LNG producer, under which Qatargas will the next few months between Warsaw, increase the volume of LNG supplied to Moscow and Berlin, over the new and PGNiG to approximately 2.7 billion cubic interconnected gas architecture meters, after regasification annually, until in East-Central Europe, will determine June 2034. whether or not this part of Europe will eventually become permanently The greatest challenge, however, for the energy independent from the Kremlin. diplomats of East-Central European countries is to persuade the European Commission to refrain from further Janusz Kowalski supporting Gazprom’s monopoly in this March 13, 2017
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Russia 2018 Jan Gajewski What’s it going to be like? Almost certainly with Vladimir Putin. And there is no better confirmation of this than the president’s mass replacement of his highest officials and collaborators. A new generation of “Putinocrats” is entering the political scene and their characteristics unambiguously indicate that in the coming years, the Kremlin court will serve one, concrete ruler.
hese aren’t changes that he would consider retirement from suggest Putin’s departure, as politics, Putin decisively rejected such a could be seen in 2007. The possibility. He assured the audience that regime is becoming ever more he had no plans to leave. The actions of Tpersonalized; it won’t be dominated by the president are even more convincing a caste of former KGB officers, but by a than his words. Changes within the czar and his courtiers, ready to fulfill his regime are determined by two external every wish without question. This kind of phenomena: a shrinking pool of resources absolutism strengthens Putin on the one exploited by the elites (the economic crisis hand, but threatens the state on the other, in Russia) and international instability, since it is dependent on the life and death along with the crisis of relations with of a single person. the West. The regime’s “face lift” is characterized by a decrease in the When asked delicately by the moderator, political importance of the members of during the annual meeting of the Valdai the ruling elite. It can be seen not only in Discussion Club in October, whether the dismissal of the “old guard”, but also
20 The Warsaw Institute Review Russia 2018
© Alexey Druzhinyn/EPA/POOL (PAP/EPA) PRESIDENT-ELECT VLADIMIR PUTIN WALKS DURING HIS INAUGURATION IN THE GRAND KREMLIN PALACE IN MOSCOW, RUSSIA - MAY 7, 2012. the replacement of the majority of the lower house of the Russian parliament, the State Duma, in the September Changes within the election. A pretext for making changes isn’t hard to find; it’s not an accident regime are determined by that law enforcement’s anti-corruption operations have clearly intensified two external phenomena: in recent months, with the Federal a shrinking pool of Security Service (FSB) playing a key role. resources exploited by I. Ever since he took power, Vladimir Putin the elites (the economic has relied on a trusted group of people, crisis in Russia) and including former KGB agents. The first to be removed from power was Viktor international instability, Cherkesov. The head of the influential along with the crisis of FSKN (Federal Drug Control Service) lost Putin’s trust after airing dirty laundry to relations with the West. the press during the so-called “siloviki” war in Putin’s second term. In 2008, Cherkesov lost his position and head of Russian Railways, the largest was transferred to the Federal Agency employer in Russia, who was also the for Armament Procurement, Military leader of the so-called “order of Russian and Special Equipment and Logistical Orthodox Chekists.” He fell into Putin’s Resources (Rosoboronpostavka), and disfavor and lost his positions in 2015. went into retirement several years later. Next in line was Vladimir Yakunin, The wave of compulsory retirements also a former KGB officer, and someone among the “old guard”, however, didn’t particularly influential in politics as the begin in earnest until the spring of 2016.
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Many of them are now on supervisory boards of state companies: Zubkov in The wave of compulsory Gazprom, Murov in Zarubezhneft, the former head of intelligence, Mikhail retirements among the Fradkov, in Russian Railways and Almaz- Antey. Some of them have retired such “old guard”, however, as Vladimir Yakunin, Viktor Ivanov, didn’t begin in earnest Andrey Belyaninov and Konstantin Romodanovski. “Putin is forcing out his until the spring of 2016. old comrades and replacing them with younger subordinates. Those people reminded him of times when he wasn’t In April, as a result of the liquidation the boss yet… Now he needs executives, of the FSKN and the Federal Migration not advisors,” said political analyst Service, their long-serving leaders: Viktor Stanislav Belkovsky. Some political Ivanov and Konstantin Romodanovski, scientists make comparisons to 2003– linked to Putin from the beginning, were 2004 (after Putin had taken office), during forced to resign. In May 2016, Evgeny which time the last influential members Murov, head of the Federal Protection of Boris Yeltsin’s team were resigning. Service (FSO) was forced to retire. Putin also fired Evgeny Dod, head of Putin is surrounded by two types of RusHydro and Vladimir Dmitriev, head people: bureaucrats and businessmen. of Vnesheconombank (VEB). Last July, The former still want something from the FSB found a large sum of undeclared the president, they engage in political foreign currency in the apartment of intrigues and battle with opponents. the head of the Federal Customs Service The latter stay in the shadows, focused (FTS). Andrey Belyaninov, who served on draining the Russian economy thanks in the KGB with Putin in the GDR, to the Kremlin’s favorable attitude. had to go. Finally, in August 2016, out Putin’s oligarchs, such as Kovalchuk, of the blue, Putin dismissed Sergei Timchenko or the Rotenbergs, are Ivanov, Chief of Staff of the Presidential resistant to purges, because they will be Executive Office, retired intelligence needed in the coming years as Putin’s general, long-time Minister of Defense business associates. In the meantime, and a major candidate to succeed Putin. the second generation of Putin’s elites Only two Chekists remain from the is entering into key positions in the “old guard”, operating in the business administration. Those tied to the KGB, and political sphere: Sergei Chemezov born in the 1940s and 1950s, are being (CEO of Rostec Corporation) and Igor replaced by younger people whose careers Sechin (Executive Chairman of Rosneft). started to develop after the fall of the But they too, especially the latter, have Soviet Union. Yakunin (born in 1948) to struggle to keep their heads above was replaced by Oleg Belozerov (born water. Those removed by Putin are in 1969), Viktor Ivanov (b. 1950) was usually assigned comfortable but minor replaced by Andrei Chrapov (b. 1970), positions. Vladimir Kozhin and Viktor Sergei Ivanov (b. 1953) was replaced by Zubkov became presidential advisors, Anton Vaino (b. 1972), Evgeny Murov (b. whereas Sergei Ivanov was appointed 1945) by Dimitri Kochniev (b. 1964). The Special Presidential Representative for ministers of the energy sector (Alexandr Environmental Protection, Ecology and Novak, b. 1971), communications Transport. (Nikolai Nikiforov, b. 1982) or industry
22 The Warsaw Institute Review Russia 2018 and trade (Denis Manturov, b. 1969) can and office. They found cash in different also be included in this new wave. currencies worth 58 million rubles or From Putin’s point of view, these are about $900,000 (the annual income the best people for hard times. They owe of the head of the FTS is 13 million their entire careers to the system that rubles). Searches were also conducted he created, if not to him personally, in the offices of Belyaninov’s deputies. and they do not know any president from The actions of the FSB and investigators the times before he took office, which were connected with the case of Dmitry is very important psychologically. Mikhalchenko, a businessman from Saint Petersburg, who had been apprehended II. a few months earlier on charges of Putin had been planning the purge at the smuggling alcohol (expensive cognac pinnacle of power for a long time; it was imported as construction sealant). just a matter of finding a suitable pretext. Belyaninov was only called as a witness The pebble that started the avalanche was in the investigation, but two days later the move against the head of customs, he was dismissed. He had headed the FTS Andrey Belyaninov. The blow was since 2006, while before that he was the spectacular, since never before in Putin’s director of federal agencies for defense Russia had the security services acted in industry procurement and weapons such a harsh and demonstrative manner export. Between 1978 and 1991 he was against one of the president’s very own an intelligence officer at the KGB; he comrades, and one in such a high position made a career in Moscow thanks to to boot. On June 26, 2016, officers of Putin, whom he knew from his days the FSB entered Belyaninov’s home of service in the GDR.
MOSCOW, RUSSIA - FEBRUARY 3, 2017. A VIEW OF THE MOSKVA RIVER, THE KREMLIN AND KREMLIN EMBANKMENT.
© Vladimir Smirnov/TASS (PAP/ITAR-TASS)
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was taken by Nikolai Tsukanov, who had been the governor of the Kaliningrad Putin had been planning Oblast since 2010. This position then went to the head of the FSB in Kaliningrad, the purge at the pinnacle Yevgeny Zinichev, Putin’s former bodyguard. Another former bodyguard, of power for a long Dmitri Mironov, became the governor of time; it was just a matter the Yaroslavl Oblast. Both the Yaroslavl and Kaliningrad oblasts are considered to of finding a suitable be regions strong with the opposition. In pretext. 2009–2011 mass-scale protests erupted. At the time, the Kremlin reacted by promoting governors from the local Vladimir Bulavin became the new head elite. Now, in expectation of another of the FTS; for three years, he had been wave of social discontent, “siloviki” were the Presidential Plenipotentiary Envoy posted to Yaroslavl and Kaliningrad to the Northwestern Federal District, (although Zinichev was eventually but he is primarily known as a Lubyanka moved to Moscow to become the deputy (KGB) man. He was in the KGB from director of the FSB in October 2016). the late 1970s; in post-Soviet Russia he The third change took place in the Kirov continued his service: from 2001 he Oblast, where Nikita Belykh, arrested headed the FSB in the Volga Federal on corruption charges, was replaced as District, and in 2006 he became the governor by Igor Vasilyev, a former KGB deputy head of the FSB at the rank of officer and Head of Rosreestr (Federal general. When Nikolai Patrushev moved Service for State Registration, Cadastre to the Security Council of the Russian and Cartography) since 2014. Federation in 2008, Bulavin followed him as his deputy. In 2013 he became Along with the elimination of the the Presidential Plenipotentiary Envoy Crimean Federal District, Oleg to the Northwestern Federal District. It Belaventsev, who is believed to be a is difficult to include Bulavin in the new protégé of the Minister of Defense, Sergey generation of Putinocrats (as in the case Shoygu, lost his post as presidential of the Head of the National Guard, Viktor envoy. He was moved to the same Zolotov, or the Head of the Foreign position in the North Caucasian Federal Intelligence, Sergey Naryshkin) which District, which had been vacated by proves that Putin still values loyalty Sergei Melikov, who had been trying to above all. However, vacating the office by pacify the unruly region since 2014. A Bulavin started a wave of personnel shifts. veteran of the Internal Troops, former On July 28, 2016, the Kremlin website commander of the elite Dzerzhinsky published multiple presidential decrees. division, he returned to his roots: Putin In one blow, Putin replaced three of the named him the deputy head of Viktor nine presidential plenipotentiary envoys Zolotov’s National Guard. Zolotov’s in federal districts, abolished one federal predecessor as commander of the Internal district and appointed four governors. Troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Nikolai Rogozhkin, who had been the The chain starts with the position of the Presidential Plenipotentiary Envoy to Presidential Plenipotentiary Envoy to the the Siberian Federal District since 2013, Northwestern Federal District, which had had to step down to be replaced by Sergei just been vacated by Bulavin. The office Menyailo. The latter, also a protégé
24 The Warsaw Institute Review Russia 2018 of Shoygu, had been the governor of officials prepared the project in such Sevastopol since 2014; he lost the fight a way that the text, which had already with Sergei Chemezov’s (CEO of Rostec been approved by the Duma, had to be Corporation) man, Dmitry Ovsyannikov, quietly corrected before it was handed Deputy Minister of Industry. The new over for the president’s signature. This governor of Sevastopol is the only person dismissal has a significant meaning for from the group of the ”July 28 nominees”, the functioning of the system, because, who has no connections with the security as noted by a former US intelligence services. analyst, John Schindler, “Ivanov was at the heart of Putin’s chekist, mafia III. government for two decades.” Moreover, While the shuffling of personnel in July in the area of foreign affairs, “regardless applied primarily to regions, the purge at of the positions held, Ivanov was a the central level was symbolically topped failsafe communication channel to Putin, off by the dismissal of Sergei Ivanov. even in the most delicate situations. In For years he was part of Putin’s inner contacts between the White House and circle. The two met in the Leningrad the Kremlin this channel was the best KGB before departing for their respective and most important”, said the former duty stations. Putin went to Dresden, Secretary of the State Condoleezza and Ivanov, educated as an English Rice in her memoirs about the former philologist, to Scandinavia. After the Chief of Staff of the Presidential dissolution of the KGB, Putin left the Executive Office. Currently, Ivanov is service, whereas Ivanov remained in intelligence, where he attained the position of deputy head of the Europe While the shuffling of Department of the Foreign Intelligence Service. When Putin became the Director personnel in July applied of the FSB in 1998, he made Ivanov his deputy. When Putin became president, primarily to regions, the Ivanov left the Lubyanka to become the purge at the central level Minister of Defense in 2001. At the end of his second term, Putin was choosing was symbolically topped between Ivanov and Dmitry Medvedev off by the dismissal of as his successor. He bet on the latter; Ivanov did not even try to conceal his Sergei Ivanov. resentment. Despite this, he followed Putin again and became the Deputy the Special Presidential Representative Prime Minister in his government, later for Environmental Protection, Ecology returning to the Kremlin as the Chief of and Transport. This position was created Staff of the Presidential Executive Office. especially for him. Meanwhile, it appears intriguing that someone like that still sits He took over one of the most important on the Security Council of the Russian positions in the country and started Federation. Either Putin did not want to political intrigues against his rivals. completely humiliate Ivanov, or he still He was supposedly behind the attacks may have plans for him in the future. on Prime Minister Medvedev and the campaign against Ramzan Kadyrov. The new head of the president’s The issue of the National Guard Act administration is a classic representative surely didn’t help him either. Ivanov’s of the new wave in Putin’s regime;
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A MAN WALKS ON A BRIDGE NEXT TO THE KREMLIN IN MOSCOW, RUSSIA - MARCH 7, 2017.
© Yuri Kochetkov/EPA (PAP/EPA)
relatively young and trusted by Putin. his personal bodyguards. Naturally, the Anton Vaino (b. 1972) comes from most influential person with an FSO a distinguished family of Estonian background is the current head of the communists. His grandfather, Karl, was National Guard, Viktor Zolotov, who the First Secretary of the Communist was the chief of Putin’s bodyguards, Party of Estonia from 1978–1988. After and later served in the Ministry of Estonia regained independence, the Internal Affairs to lay the groundwork Vainos chose Russia. Anton started for the creation of the new formation his career as a diplomat (specializing that would be exclusively loyal to the in Japan), but Putin quickly took him president. Three former subordinates to the Kremlin. Since 2002, Vaino has of Zolotov have become governors, been close to the president; he even although this is not the end of their became the Chief of Protocol, which is careers as envisioned by Putin. The as close to Putin as one can be, just like above-mentioned Zinichev would travel with Putin around the country as a bodyguard. In June 2015, he became the The new head of Head of the FSB in Kaliningrad, and was promoted to the position of governor last the president’s year. After that short episode, he became the Deputy Head of the FSB. Dmitri administration is a Mironov also used to be a bodyguard classic representative of and an aide-de-camp of Putin. In 2014 he was relegated to the Ministry of the new wave in Putin’s Internal Affairs, where he even became regime; relatively young the Deputy Minister. Currently, he is the Governor of Yaroslavl. Tula Oblast, on and trusted by Putin. the other hand, is governed by Alexey Dyumin, the deputy head of Putin’s
26 The Warsaw Institute Review Russia 2018 security, who was later relegated to the balancing of interests between clans Ministry of Defense, and to the GRU (the most prominent example of that more specifically. He was one of the key model was the so-called tandemocracy people running the Russian “special of 2008–2012). Instead of protecting the operation” in Crimea. After the death interests of the group standing at the of General Igor Sergun (the Director of apex of the regime pyramid, the goal of the GRU) in January 2016, Putin wanted the system now seems to be to protect Dyumin to head military intelligence. Putin himself. Instead of rule by a type The plan failed and now Dyumin – of Politburo, one person will have all also known for playing the position of the power. It won’t be enough to assign goaltender in hockey matches among loyalists to a majority of positions to Putin’s closest friends – is waiting ensure success. for a new opportunity. Another of Zolotov’s men has become Head of the Presidential Administrative Directorate, The mechanism was i.e. the Kremlin’s major-domo. Vladimir Kozhin was replaced by Alexander always the same. New Kolpakov, who previously had been the head of Department “B” of the FSO. comrades replaced the old ones that had been IV. When Stalin was unable to deal with the eliminated. internal problems of collectivization and industrialization, he got rid of his more This is why Putin is creating a checks- experienced political collaborators at the and-balances system within individual famous “Congress of the Victors”, who institutions. As Sergei Ivanov was understood what was going on and could counterbalanced in the presidential question his decisions. Then, after the administration by his mighty deputy assassination of Sergey Kirov, the Great Vyacheslav Volodin, now Anton Vaino Terror started. There were successive is counterbalanced by Sergei Kiriyenko. phases of “cleansing” in the regime, the Kiriyenko himself is “controlled” by last one taking place in the final period of Andrei Yarin, Head of the Presidential Stalin’s life. The mechanism was always the Domestic Policy Directorate. In turn, same. New comrades replaced the old ones Alexander Bortnikov has competition that had been eliminated, such as Nikita at his side in the FSB in the form of Khrushchev, Georgy Malenkov, Andrei Sergei Korolev as well as Zinichev. This Zhdanov or Lavrentiy Beria. They were system, where the head of an institution technocrats who placed power and their feels their deputy (and candidate for careers over any ideological misgivings, his successor) breathing down his neck, ready to obey every command. Times have compensates for the lack of authentic changed, but Putin is taking advantage political competition. of the same mechanism. Of course today, officials who are pushed aside are no Most of the personnel changes in longer murdered. recent months have been made with the aftermath of the 2018 election in What characterizes Putin’s current, mind, and not what comes before it. In transforming model of government? the case of some of the new nominees, It is the end of the old system based it can be assumed that they have some on the consensus of the elite and a particular, time-limited mission to
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for fundamental reforms in the future. Mass-scale changes are not an end The personnel revolution unto themselves, but rather a means to achieve an overriding goal: reshaping of 2016 shows, that the system. Putin is neutralizing potential resistance against changes Putin is unable to solve that might turn out to be revolutionary. the regime problems by He is also forming a group of “oprichniks”, who will carry out the changing the system. tasks given to them.
carry out. It is all about ensuring A lot depends on how much longer Putin that Vladimir Putin has full control will rule and what form the succession over the most important regions and process will take. There are two corporations in the period of major possibilities: either the Yeltsin scenario, political changes and reconfiguration a behind-the-scenes consensus of major of the government around the time political forces, or a brutal war for of the election. It’s still unclear when power. In the face of recent events, the the election will actually take place; latter seems more likely. Earlier, Putin however, the recent purges might was the arbiter and center of balance signal that it will happen sooner rather for the interests of competing groups than later. According to the Ministry of elites. The conflict in Ukraine, the of Finance of the Russian Federation, assassination of Boris Nemtsov and the funds will run out in 2017, whereas the war between the federal “siloviki” and presidential election is scheduled for Kadyrov, ruined this tacit agreement. March 2018. If Putin’s government is Hence the current personnel changes. to introduce unpopular reforms, which In effect the system has become even seems unavoidable at the moment, it will more personalized, which means that not do so before the election. In early the weakening or the departure of November, an interview was published the president poses a great risk to the with Valery Soloviev on the website of a Russian Federation. In October 2014, popular tabloid. He is an analyst known at the meeting of the Valdai Discussion for exceptionally accurate forecasts Club, the deputy head of the presidential and predictions about the Kremlin’s administration declared: “Today, there is decision-making. On this occasion, he no Russia without Putin!”. suggested that Putin has some serious health issues and might step down This dependence of the country on its in 2017. Interestingly, the interview leader is a threat. Even in Soviet times, disappeared after only a few hours, and the general secretary of the Communist Soloviev himself went silent. “There are Party did not have such great power, as no such discussions at the Kremlin,” the death of Brezhnev, Andropov, or commented Putin’s spokesperson about even Stalin, did not threaten the collapse an early election. of the entire system of government and an undermining of the foundations of The personnel revolution of 2016 shows, the state. This time it might be different. that Putin is unable to solve the regime problems by changing the system. He limits himself to personnel changes, Jan Gajewski although they may signal preparation November 18, 2016
28 The Warsaw Institute Review Germany’s Inglorious Isolation Krzysztof Rak The delicate position of Germany in the post–Cold War global order rested upon the art of diplomacy. Abiding by the warnings of Otto von Bismarck, German politicians sought for their country to have better relations with foreign powers than among themselves.
his skilled, multi–instrument no doubt as to his intentions, arguing game maintained Berlin’s that “Bismarck’s legacy shapes German international position. Yet, foreign policy to the present day.” He the financial crisis destroyed explained the policy’s essence to be one Tthe existing system of balance and, as of realpolitik, which relies on “the Bismarck foretold, weakened Berlin’s analysis of reality and the subtle intuition position. This is proven by Germany’s of the interests and behaviors of other growing isolation and the worsening actors on the international stage.” Put of relations with its most important simply, it is “the art of the possible.” partners. This is also why “the central task of German foreign policy in the coming Bismarck’s Balance of Power years is rebuilding broken trust, and During a visit to Washington, D.C. in a basis for cooperation in the area of March 2015, Minister of Foreign Affairs security between Russia and the West.” of the Federal Republic of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, said that Berlin During the Congress of Berlin in 1878, wanted to play the role of a “responsible the great powers were meant to come agent” (verantwortlicher Makler). to an understanding about the new Speaking several weeks later to the European order after the Russo-Turkish leadership of his party, the SPD, he left War. They did not want the peace
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GERMAN CHANCELLOR ANGELA MERKEL SPEAKS DURING A NEWS CONFERENCE AFTER A MEETING IN MUNICH, GERMANY - FEBRUARY 6, 2017.
© Lukas Barth/EPA (PAP/EPA) 30 The Warsaw Institute Review Germany’s Inglorious Isolation to disturb the balance of power, which had been shifted by Russia’s military successes in the Balkans. Therefore, She patiently built at the negotiating table, an “alignment” strategic relations with of relations was reached. the most important As the host of the Congress, Chancellor of powers so that Germany Germany, Otto von Bismarck, sought to could become an use the occasion to convince his partners that Germany was a power that was indispensable component “saturated”. It had no desire for territorial of the global system. gains and instead endeavored to keep the status quo. Germany, he claimed, had reached its optimal size. This is why most favorable international situation in Germany could afford to play the role Germany’s history, in which Germany of a “responsible agent”, an impartial did not have a mortal, geopolitical enemy, intermediary who would facilitate nor did it have to fear the rise of a hostile agreement between the great powers, coalition (as Bismarck described it, the considering each of their interests fairly. coalitions nightmares - “les cauchemar des coalitions”). Bismarck believed that Berlin’s aspirations of hegemony would end in Yet, the multifaceted crisis in Europe defeat, for other powers would easily be destroyed this system. This change in able to create a successful anti-German the status quo threatens Berlin with coalition. A year before the Congress, isolation in the international arena. One he explained his desire for “an overall of the most important causes of this political situation in which we are state of affairs was Germany’s inability needed by all of the powers, and relations to play the leading role in Europe. This between them would prevent the creation became apparent during the attempt to of a coalition opposed to us.” tackle the financial, debt, migration and Brexit crises. Germany proved too weak Germany’s strategic dilemma, called the to cope with them. This fell short of the “German Question”, was that they are too expectations of its main partners, who strong to serve as an equal component had called for Germany to take on the in the continental balance of power, but role of continental hegemon and shoulder also too weak to destroy this balance and the weight of recovery actions. As a result, dominate. The only effective strategy in today Germany must cope with the such a system is to contain its hegemonic challenge of isolation. aspirations and take responsibility for the balance of power in Europe. The Crisis of “Partnership in Leadership” Chancellor Merkel has applied the lessons The biggest problem affecting of the “Iron Chancellor” (as Bismarck Berlin’s global position is the crisis in was commonly known). She was not transatlantic relations. This has been lured by the temptation of continental triggered by the undiplomatic reaction of hegemony. She patiently built strategic the German political class to the election relations with the most important powers of Donald Trump as President of the so that Germany could become an United States. Minister of Defense, Ursula indispensable component of the global von der Leyen (CDU), set the tone: system. Merkel took advantage of the “It was a serious shock for me when I saw
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The Americans recognized that they were not in a position to independently The biggest problem impose their principles on the world, so affecting Berlin’s global allies would be needed to promote them. Wanting to maintain its position as global position is the crisis in leader, the United States had transatlantic relations. to find appropriate partners. In northern Eurasia this was Germany, which, in the following two decades, took upon how things are.” She continued, refusing itself the burden of extending to recognize any of Trump’s successes: Euro–Atlantic institutions, NATO “I think Trump realizes that votes weren’t and the EU, to the east. cast for him, but against Washington.” This lack of courtesy can be explained by Following such harsh criticism from surprise at the result, yet those who made German politicians, it is difficult to subsequent declarations intentionally imagine that the new President of the sought to insult the president-elect. United States would perceive Germany Minister of Foreign Affairs, Frank-Walter as a strategic partner. On this occasion, Steinmeier, proclaimed: “The result of the the diplomatic breakdown could not election is different than that which most be blamed on Trump. As noted by Germans would have wished.” Moreover, a commentator in the Frankfurter he lamented the lack of specifics in Allgemeine Zeitung, German politicians Trump’s program and demanded insulted the President of the United explanations. Vice-Chancellor Sigmar States, not Donald Trump. It could Gabriel (SPD) outdid his colleagues scarcely be believed that they did so by describing the president-elect as “a unwittingly, since they know full well pioneer of a chauvinist and authoritarian the distinction between the institution International.” (office) and the person holding it.
Against this backdrop, Chancellor The cooling of relations with Berlin might Merkel’s comments could seem subdued. work to Trump’s advantage. He will She stated that the Federal Republic of certainly continue the policy of limiting Germany and the United States were the political and military presence of “joined by a deep attachment to the the United States on the Old Continent. values of democracy, freedom, respect for The reluctance to cooperate on the part human dignity, regardless of origin, skin of the main European power could be color, religion, gender, sexual orientation a good pretext for further withdrawals or political views” and to the newly of American forces and resources from elected president she proposed “close Europe. This freed up potential would cooperation on the basis of these values.” surely then be engaged in other parts Most commentators saw this choice of of the globe. words as the setting of terms to Trump. The German authorities obviously did not German politicians seem to forget see the asymmetry of interests. Clearly, that German-American relations were the difference in potential between the fundamental to the post–Cold War order. Federal Republic of Germany and the They were shaped by the doctrine of United States shows that the partnership “partnership in leadership” which was between the two countries was not equal. worked out in Washington, D.C. in 1989. Militarily, the Germans are simply
32 The Warsaw Institute Review Germany’s Inglorious Isolation a client of the United States. This division between the Eurozone and the imbalance led to Merkel’s close rest of the member states inevitably arose. consultation on her eastern policy with Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama. Today it is safe to say that the French– She was aware that European countries German attempts to build a European are militarily weak, and therefore lacked federal state have ended in defeat. strength in peace talks with Russia. A disastrous mistake had already been A condition of effective diplomacy in the committed by Chancellor Helmut conflict between Ukraine and Russia was Kohl, one of the greatest advocates of the support of the United States, the most federalism, as by agreeing to accept the powerful military in the world. Euro, he abandoned the possibility of creating a political union in Europe. Germany’s new problems were of its According to his original plan, the new own making. Partnership in leadership union was to stand firmly on two pillars: was one of the most important factors a common currency and a political in Germany’s special position in global federation. The French President François politics. Berlin, having the potential Mitterrand did not want to deepen to assume the role of a regional power, political cooperation. First of all, he played in a higher league of global wanted to weaken a united Germany, powers. and thus take away their most important geo–economic weapon, the Deutsche French-German Delusions Mark. The French authorities wanted the The Paris-Berlin axis was the foundation Euro to ensure that Paris maintained its of European integration. In the 1990s, position of power in Europe. both powers made the decision to accept central and southern European countries into their integrating structures. This envisaged the eventual membership Today it is safe to say of nearly 30 nations. This required a that the French–German fundamental consideration of its current cooperation mechanisms, starting with attempts to build decision-making processes. a European federal state
European elites recognized that it was have ended in defeat. impossible to maintain the principle of homogenous integration, or the same Therefore, it should not be surprising level of integration advancement across that the Eurozone crisis is leading to all member states. Differentiation was some unrest between Berlin and Paris. obvious, thus there was a division of The common currency did not realize countries in terms of the extent to which the hopes invested in it and it was not they would cooperate. The EU was a catalyst for integration. It led to the meant to become a structure resembling lowest ever credit rates being offered to concentric circles, created by states the poorest, southern countries. Italian, similarly advanced in integration. The Greek and Spanish leaderships began to narrowest circle was to be created jointly irresponsibly put their countries in debt; by France and Germany. Since the in order to maintain their power they decision to expand the Union was made catered to every whim of their electorates. in parallel with the introduction of a A new intangible wall arose in Europe common currency, the first fundamental dividing creditors and debtors.
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The anti-crisis measures, still ongoing so-called “transfer union” has been after six years, have only deepened this implemented in practice. This is division. Essentially, the Euro became a requirement of France and southern a ticking time bomb placed under countries tied to it, that creditor-nations the foundations of European integration. transfer huge sums to debtor-nations with Worse still, the political leaders not only the goal of evening out differences have no idea how to bridge this divide, in development in the Eurozone. but they seem to not even recognize The mechanisms for evening out the that one exists. New recovery programs levels of wealth and prosperity have long depend on new loans which continue existed within the Union. This is the to drive debtors further into debt. These goal of the well-known structural and so-called anti-crisis measures do not help cohesion funds. Yet, these expenditures the southern economies, which are in dire are a fraction of the GDP of the entire condition, but instead merely delay the EU. Meanwhile, in the case of the transfer approaching catastrophe. union the sums are much greater, perhaps over 10% of GDP. This is why the wealthiest countries oppose the idea The biggest surprise for and Berlin has repeatedly distanced itself political leaders may be from the proposal. the ascertainment that The problem is that despite the opposition of creditors, hundreds of billions of Euros the so-called “transfer are flowing from the north to the south of union” has been the continent. This is happening thanks to the policies of the European Central implemented in practice. Bank, which are neither transparent nor in accordance with EU law. Ever since the A segment of the German elite, most of financial crisis struck there has been all a group of respected economists, has a huge and ongoing loan operation long warned about the fatal consequences directed toward the countries of southern of introducing the Euro. However, Europe. At the same time, the EU is politicians responsible for its introduction liable for the debts of member nations. did not listen. And here they made Therefore, it breaks its own treaty, which a serious mistake, with direct political clearly prohibits it (the “no bail-out” repercussions. Above all, the Eurozone clause from article 125 of the Treaty on crisis will prevent stability in Europe. the Functioning of the European Union).
Such a conclusion can be drawn from In March 2015, Sinn calculated that the the book published a year ago authored debts of the six countries presenting the by Hans–Werner Sinn titled The Euro: biggest problem in the Eurozone (Greece, From Peace Project to Bone of Contention Italy, Spain, Portugal, Cyprus and (Der Euro. Von der Friedensidee zum Ireland) had soared to almost 11 trillion Zankapfel). In 500 pages, the most Euro, or 335% of GDP of these countries. influential German economist has made This means that the debt cannot be paid a diagnosis of what he describes as the off and the creditors will have to accept disease plaguing the Eurozone. losses.
The biggest surprise for political leaders The German economist is of the opinion may be the ascertainment that the that continuing the policy of transfers
34 The Warsaw Institute Review Germany’s Inglorious Isolation would end in catastrophe. Loans totaling hundreds of billions of Euros have not had positive effects. The economies of southern European countries are still in crisis. The only indicator that is growing is debt. Transfers are thus a play for time, only delaying the crash.
The best antidote to the debt crisis is discontinuing the transfer union, in other words, the EU giving loans to member states in debt. Sinn points to the examples of the United States and Switzerland, where the central government does not take responsibility for the debts of individual states or cantons. If the EU is to survive it should respect its own laws and allow member states with an irresponsible monetary policy to go bankrupt.
Sinn argues that Germany is not the victor in the Eurozone crisis. Indeed, it ultimately sowed the seeds for the breaking down of their European policy, which was conceived in the 1990s.
The Euro cannot be the main basis for
integration, as instead of connecting, it © Johannes Simon/EPA/POOL (PAP/EPA) divides, creating a fundamental conflict GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER SIGMAR GABRIEL between debtors and creditors. This ADDRESSES THE MEDIA AFTER A FOUR-LATERAL MEETING (‘MUNICH UKRAINIAN LUNCH’) DURING conflict threatens the very existence THE 53RD MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE (MSC) of the EU. France and Germany, the IN MUNICH, GERMANY - FEBRUARY 18, 2017. countries which were meant to be the “engine” of the EU, are arguing over the strategic direction to pursue next. Paris does not agree with having an actual political union, because it would mean, The Euro cannot be for example, the joint administration of their nuclear arsenals, when it only the main basis for wants the wealthiest EU countries to take integration, as instead greater responsibility for Eurozone debts. of connecting, it divides, In the German political discourse, creating a fundamental proposals are increasingly appearing to abandon the federalist concept and conflict between debtors its main requirement of deep European and creditors. integration. The former President of the Federal Industrial Association of
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Germany, Hans-Olaf Henkel, has been The weakness of Berlin’s position calling for the division of the Eurozone was revealed by the war in Ukraine, into two currency areas for years. One during which Putin undermined the area would include Germany and the foundation of the entire post–Cold War rich countries of northern Europe, and order in Europe. The annexation of the other would accommodate France Crimea constituted the unprecedented and southern European states, signifying violation of two fundamental principles: a final break between Berlin and Paris. the inviolability of borders and the He argues that the current profits that prohibition of the use of force in Germany gains from exports thanks to international relations. The Kremlin the current shape of the Eurozone does proved that “the end of history” is a not cover the huge expenditures required baseless myth. to prop up near-bankrupt states. His sensible economic argumentation, which In this case, the would-be hegemon of converges with Sinn’s arguments, is still Europe failed to deliver. As usual, Merkel considered outlandish today. German was biding her time. She could have ended elites and society cannot imagine Berlin the crisis but she would have had to exhibit divorcing itself from Paris. Their political character and courage, choosing one of habits would of course be changed. two methods. Either demonstrate the However, when the next stage of the cynicism of state power and, in concert debt crisis is revealed, when the average with others, “sell-out” Ukraine to Putin, German realizes that he had to pay with or defend high values and decide on real his pension for the alliance with France, sanctions against Moscow, which would or when he has to choose between this have hit Russian energy exports. In reality, alliance or a prosperous and comfortable she chose the strategy of maneuvering, old-age. advocating simultaneously for supposed sanctions and cooperating with Russia in The absence of a uniform German building the Nord Stream energy pipeline. position and a strategic compromise Such a policy only encouraged Putin between the powers, means that, in the to make further attempts to destabilize short-term, genuine reform of the EU the West. Only now are German elites should not be expected. France will not becoming aware that the Kremlin is give up on the idea of forcing Germany to leading a brutal information war against continue with the transfer union, given them. But even this has not pushed them its strong support from Italy and other to undertake more decisive action against countries of southern Europe. This means Moscow. Having American blessing for that until the next wave of the crisis hits, this type of irrational appeasement is only Europe will remain in a clinch. a partial explanation.
The Eastern Policy Wilderness The most surprising element of the impasse in transatlantic and European She could have ended the relations, is the worsening of relations with the most important players in crisis but she would have Eurasia. In the normal course of things, had to exhibit character the weakening of the western vector of German policy should bring with it the and courage, choosing strengthening of the eastern vector. But one of two methods. there has been nothing of the sort.
36 The Warsaw Institute Review Germany’s Inglorious Isolation
Following the weakening of relations with Moscow came the worsening of relations with China – the second most important The growing crisis in power in Eurasia after Russia. The latest relations between Berlin visit of the Vice–Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, Sigmar Gabriel, and Beijing should come to China in November 2016 brought a as no surprise. noticeable cooling between the two powers. in June was already full of discord. The The foreshadowing of the visit was not weekly Die Zeit referred to the situation promising from the start. Even before in an article with the symptomatic the departure of the vice-chancellor, title: “Sharp Conflicts with a Difficult the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Partner”. Both countries are geared Affairs summoned the German deputy towards exports and conflict between ambassador and delivered a protest. them was unavoidable, especially The Chinese were dissatisfied with the when the balance of trade increasingly German debate on Chinese investments, favored the Chinese. In addition, one specifically the alleged American pressure must consider the unparalleled scale to prevent the sale of one of Germany’s of Chinese investments in Germany. high-tech companies to the Chinese. Germany is wary that in this way the Chinese will obtain their own Matters soon worsened. In Beijing, Gabriel technology and innovations, thereby was to jointly appear with the Chinese becoming more competitive in the global Minister of Commerce, Gao Hucheng, marketplace. before members of the Sino-German Economic Committee. Unexpectedly, the An even more glaring symptom of the meeting was called off. According to the crisis of Germany’s eastern policy is the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, the cause cooling of relations with the countries of the cancellation was a statement by one of Eastern and Central Europe. Until of the Chinese trade ministers who made recently, this region was regarded as the accusation that in Germany a “hostile Berlin’s exclusive zone of influence. For mood towards investment” prevailed. The a quarter-century, Germany has blocked same newspaper recalled the statement the emergence of any kind of coalition of the Chinese ambassador in Berlin that could oppose it without difficulty. who complained about the “growing Germany grew accustomed to imposing protectionist tendencies” in Germany. In its will on weaker clients. The hubris turn, Gabriel, as the newspaper reports, of power usually triggers a response. “didn’t leave the slightest doubt in Beijing When Germany tried to force the Czech that Chinese investments in Germany Republic, Slovakia and Hungary to and Europe will be strictly controlled accept a quota of immigrants last year, and if need be, thwarted.” He announced they rebelled, refusing to obey and for a harder line towards Beijing and a firm the first time organized a common defense of German investors, who have coalition. Germany had lost control of complained of being discriminated against its closest region. in China. *** The growing crisis in relations between Germany has found itself in a dire Berlin and Beijing should come as no diplomatic situation. And the future does surprise. The visit of Chancellor Merkel not seem promising either. In 2017, the
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However, another outcome is also possible. Specifically, where the central The German dilemma European countries create a coalition rests in the choice which starts to compete on the European scene. However, even if such a coalition between two strategies, was to succeed, it would be too weak pursuing hegemony to play the role of a third power (the or a balance of power. Visegrad Four countries account for less than 10% of the EU population, and only a few percent of its economy). German political class will be focused That is why these countries could instead on the election campaign. The Social try to make a new agreement (taking Democrats, who are losing ground, into account their subjective role) with are grasping at anything to slow their Germany and create a new system downfall. With an absence of ideas for that would stabilize the situation domestic policy, they will be fighting in Central Europe. This, on the one with the Christian Democrats on the hand, will require the changing field of foreign policy under the banner of Berlin’s paternalistic attitude towards of building a European superstate and its former satellites, and on the other anti-Americanism. The biggest current hand, greater effort and responsibility asset of German diplomacy – a cross- from Poland and her regional partners. party consensus in strategic matters – will be sacrificed for the sake of The German dilemma rests in the continuing the careers of uncharismatic choice between two strategies, pursuing politicians like Sigmar Gabriel. This hegemony or a balance of power. will only deepen the isolation felt by The biggest paradox is the fact that Germany in the international arena. the federalization projects serving to deepen European integration, have The weakening of Europe’s dominant created the conditions for the dominance power brings with it many challenges. of Germany on the continent. Great powers assume the role of regional The practice was inconsistent with stabilizers. When they lose strength, theory, which suggested that the a power vacuum is created that must handing over of the scope of authority be filled. This is how a new equilibrium from nation-states to supranational is created. This signals that a period institutions weakened the influence of disorder and uncertainty awaits of state powers. With that in mind, us in Europe. Vladimir Putin will the best way out from the current crisis certainly try to take advantage seems to be a reform of the European of this situation, knowing that a weaker Union which would bring balance Germany means a stronger Russia; between the main powers and small this is why power is relative. He will and medium countries. Essentially, not miss the opportunity to once again this would mean a return to the expand his sphere of influence. principles which were in effect prior The most straightforward way t to the signing of the Treaty of Lisbon. o achieve this goal would be to agree upon a new arrangement between Krzysztof Rak Moscow and Berlin. Germany, abating December 20, 2016 in strength, may not be able to resist such a temptation.
38 The Warsaw Institute Review CENTRAL EASTERN EUROPE INNOVATORS SUMMIT IN WARSAW, POLAND - MARCH 28, 2017.
© Piotr Tracz Central Eastern Europe I n novator s Summit Paweł Szefernaker The Polish economy, destroyed by communism, for years did not have suitable conditions to function on the basis of its own technology. Today, thanks to the fourth industrial revolution, Poland has a historical opportunity to build its own new brand in the world markets.
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fter the ages of steam, At the same time, the free market electricity and automation, released huge potential and energy of we are now living in the millions of ordinary Poles. Trade, services age of the fourth industrial and then industries which did not require Arevolution. Universal computerisation, complicated engineering continued to digitisation and Internet access are develop faster. Poles became more and changing our lives completely and are more aware of the free market economy; an opportunity for those who think they had lots of ideas and a great desire innovatively. Central and Eastern Europe for personal development, but our is a huge reservoir of people who are in country did not offer such opportunities. their element in this reality. For years, Many outstanding professionals, Poland was dependent on technologies after completing their education, and brought in from other countries and sometimes even before they undertook in many cases it will be difficult for studies, went abroad, thus contributing to us to compete with highly-developed the prosperity of Western economies. economies in this field today. However, It was only the digital age – which we can successfully compete in the sphere reduced distances and equalised of digital and information technologies, opportunities in nearly all parts of the by putting excellent engineers and globe – that enabled Poles to use their programmers on the market. creativity also in Poland. This is how corporate powers such as CD Projekt, the German occupation and then Soviet publisher of the cult game “The Witcher”, domination both left a deep mark on were built. Today, every discovery made the economy of the largest country in by a Polish engineer can gain publicity; Central and Eastern Europe. Poland’s while they can find business partners, or unwieldy industry failed to compete in acquire financing thanks to the Internet. terms of quality on world markets, which led to the collapse of its centrally-steered Central and Eastern European economy. Problems then deepened in Innovators Summit the 1990s. The economic transformation From the beginning of the 1990s, the late conducted at the liberals’ bidding, with Lech Kaczyński – President of Poland the participation of communist notables in 2005-2010 and his brother Jarosław who took part in the process of changes, Kaczyński – Prime Minister in 2006- led to the selling-off of those national -2007, and the current leader of the Law assets which could be of any value. and Justice political party which has As a consequence, Polish brands did not a majority in the Parliament and has develop their own know-how, and our formed the government, talked about country specialised in assembling devices the need to rebuild a strong and modern invented in foreign research centres. state. As a result of the implementation of the policy of a state which is stable, self-confident and invests in modern At the same time, technologies, the Law and Justice’s the free market released conservative government has a plan today to act even faster and more efficiently in huge potential and the sphere of innovations. At the end of energy of millions March, the CEE Innovators Summit was held in Warsaw, attended by the Prime of ordinary Poles. Ministers of the Visegrad Group (V4). This is Prime Minister Beata Szydło’s
40 The Warsaw Institute Review Central Eastern Europe Innovators Summit idea for Polish presidency in V4. Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic jointly have the potential which Poland, Hungary, would enable them to compete with Slovakia and the Czech highly developed countries. As a region, we truly have unique human Republic jointly have capital. This is illustrated by statistics the potential which would showing for instance the number of enable them to compete engineering studies graduates who can help us compete with the most innovative with highly developed economies worldwide. Based on the countries. OECD data (2012), V4 countries have nearly 150,000 graduates from these types -ups, entrepreneurs, scientists, innovators of studies in total, whereas South Korea, and national administrations of our today’s leader in world innovativeness region of Europe. rankings – around 160,000. More importantly, as part of the Visegrad The largest economies of the European Group we are in the lead in terms of the continent channel their activities towards number of IT specialists. In 2012, there competitiveness built on technological were around 26,500 graduates of such innovations. Central and Eastern studies in our region, and only half that European states which – for historic number in South Korea. The Warsaw and geopolitical reasons – could not Summit created scope for cooperation participate in the implementation and exchange of experiences among start- of previous industrial revolutions, and
CENTRAL EASTERN EUROPE INNOVATORS SUMMIT IN WARSAW, POLAND - MARCH 28, 2017.
© Piotr Tracz
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(tax reliefs), a stable method of financing the commercialisation of scientific Increasing the research and development work results, innovativeness of the as well as a package of procedural facilitations. The new regulations address Polish economy is one the most urgent needs of Polish innovators of the most important and scientists. Meanwhile, further initiatives in this area will be presented priorities of the current before the end of this year. Polish government. The manifestation of these priorities is the Strategy for Sustainable Development only benefited from their effects, have adopted by the Polish government. a historic opportunity of actively coming to the fore of countries which are leading Appreciating the importance the fourth industrial revolution. of innovations, the Polish government We realise that it all depends on whether appointed the Innovation Council – thanks to this increasing innovativeness whose tasks include the coordination – we seize the opportunity to achieve of activities connected with increasing fast economic development. the innovativeness of Polish science and economics. The systemic proposals Increasing the innovativeness of the developed by the Council will be Polish economy is one of the most evaluated in consultations with important priorities of the current Polish representatives of non-governmental government. An innovative knowledge- organisations and organisations -based economy should be a foundation of employers. for the growth of the national income and for raising the level of prosperity in Admittedly, innovativeness is not Poland. Therefore, all actions undertaken a phenomenon reserved for the digital by the Law and Justice’s government in the area; nevertheless it is in the digital world area of entrepreneurship are on the one that it emerges the most. During the hand intended to build good conditions Innovators Summit, heads of the Visegrad for conducting business activity, and on Group states expressed their support for the other hand to encourage businesses the establishment of a fully functional to boldly invest in the latest technologies. European single digital market. The It is an important task for the Polish purpose is the removal of barriers to the administration to ensure an appropriate digital development of the EU and creating framework for innovators through friendly possibilities for European companies to regulations, among other things with get benefits of scale resulting from the regard to supporting innovativeness and existence of a large European market. the constant removal of any barriers that Only through this way can we quickly might appear. The Polish government’s build a competitive industry based on goal is to create an effective ecosystem for modern technologies. There is a large and developing innovations. Already during unused potential for cooperation in the the first year of its activity, a cohesive Visegrad Group countries in the area system of various instruments awarding of digital economy. It is in our countries’ benefits and encouraging innovative interests to present a uniform position activity was introduced, including which will constitute a counterweight a more business-friendly tax system to protectionist threats often appearing
42 The Warsaw Institute Review Central Eastern Europe Innovators Summit
CENTRAL EASTERN EUROPE INNOVATORS SUMMIT IN WARSAW, POLAND - MARCH 28, 2017. © Piotr Tracz
in the European discussion, or concepts of those who went abroad have succeeded aimed at deepening developmental in the largest innovative companies of differences between the EU regions. the world. The CEE Innovators Summit We should unambiguously support the is a strong accent of Poland’s presidency elimination of all barriers for which there in the Visegrad Group. This is a signal is no justification in the Treaty provisions. not just for Hungarians, Czechs, Slovaks Only equal and non-discriminatory and Poles, but also for the rest of the conditions for conducting activity on the world that governments appreciate this EU market will enable our companies to huge potential, which is dormant in the compete with entrepreneurs from Western residents of our region. states, who are much stronger in terms of capital. Basis of cooperation among the Visegrad Group states As a result of globalisation, competition Thus, the basis for effective cooperation in world markets has increased is the intellectual potential of the significantly in recent decades. Visegrad Group countries’ citizens, Our region, if it wishes to be competitive, their cultural similarities and common must invest in such capital which will give historic links. We are facing similar us an opportunity to compete against challenges and problems related to other – very often larger – players. Poland, the implementation of an effective although it does not top the innovativeness innovativeness policy. Common problems rankings as yet, has the greatest asset concern the establishment of a cohesive which should be strengthened and environment for start-ups, supporting nurtured – high competences of Poles, research and development activity, as well their enterprising spirit, and a growing as the jump from the absorption of ready- social awareness that innovativeness is -made technologies to the stimulation a path to further development. This is the of innovations based on results of our very capital - human capital - composed own domestic research. Research and of creative, enterprising people, that breaks development cooperation with the “old through all barriers, and that determines EU” countries and building the society of our strength. For years, this capital was “early users” and “early adapters”, willing often invested abroad, which increased to test and purchase innovative products, the prosperity of other countries. Many constitute a challenge.
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It should be noted, that the V4 in those areas which we believe to be of key countries are implementing intelligent importance for the economic future of our specialisation strategies on similar topics. region and of the EU. Crises affecting the European Union recently show that it is the duty of the Visegrad Group’s states to An important statement build institutions resistant both to political and economic unrest. For this purpose, the of this declaration is the Prime Ministers of the V4 states signed the separation of a dedicated so-called Warsaw Declaration during the Innovators Summit. The main assumption budgetary line within the of the Declaration is the reinforcement International Visegrad of cooperation with regard to research, innovations and digitalisation. Special Fund, focused on the objectives include the strengthened and implementation of joint extended regional cooperation of clusters and start-ups. Moreover, we would like to research and development promote states from the Visegrad Group projects. as research and innovation centres.
This refers in particular to An important statement of this declaration the automotive, telecommunications, is the separation of a dedicated budgetary electronic, and transport industries, line within the International Visegrad as well as to the environment, and health Fund, focused on the implementation of foods. There is a large potential for the joint research and development projects. implementation of joint projects in the area of research and development, First and foremost, we want the Warsaw which could constitute the basis for Declaration to be the starting point for competing with the “old EU” countries tighter cooperation among the countries of and allow the creation of realistic regional the region, which will increase the number specialisations within the V4. of supranational research and development projects implemented by science and There are symptoms showing that other research institutions and enterprises from regions of the world see not only political Central and Eastern Europe. but also economic potential in the Group. It is important to establish good conditions One of the examples is Japan, which for cooperation between entrepreneurs together with the International Visegrad and scientists: only this way can our local Fund is financing the V4-Japan Joint businesses stand up to global competition Research Programme that may be used in Western European and Asian markets. by private or public research organisations or small- and medium-size businesses. The cooperation initiated thanks to the Innovators Summit constitutes a clear Often, particularly at European Union signal that both Poland and other states forums, arguments are used that the from our region are prepared to become Visegrad Group is not cohesive, and that fully involved in the challenges which it presents different opinions and views. our economies face in the 21st century, However, our strength is determined the age of innovations. by the ability to cooperate despite differing outlooks. We are strengthened by Paweł Szefernaker the fact that we tighten our cooperation March 31, 2017
44 The Warsaw Institute Review Central Eastern Europe Innovators Summit
Joint declaration of intent of Prime Ministers of the Visegrad Group on mutual co-operation in innovation and digital affairs “Warsaw Declaration” CEE Innovators Summit, Warsaw, 28 March 2017
We, the Prime Ministers of the Visegrad and the economy of the V4 countries of Group (V4) countries, convening in Warsaw 14 July 2016 and the meeting of ministers on 28 March 2017, adopt hereby the responsible for telecommunications and following Joint Declaration. heads of the National Regulatory Authorities of V4 countries on 6 February 2017, RECOGNIZING the solid ties of cooperation who adopted the common paper on the and friendship between the Czech Republic, European Electronic Communications Code; Hungary, the Republic of Poland and the Slovak Republic, and the remarkable REITERATING the commitments made progress in our relations in various areas in the Memorandum of Understanding reached, among others, thanks to the V4 on a “Regional Start-up Platform” between cooperation; start-up organizations of the start-up communities and in the Memorandum REITERATING the commitment of the V4 of Understanding on enterprises in Eastern countries to provide added value for the Central Europe for digitalization and reflexion process on the future of the EU connected and automated driving, signed in specific areas; at the Regional Digital Summit held in Budapest on 17-18 November 2016; RECALLING the Kroměříž Declaration of 12 May 2004 on cooperation of the EMPHASIZING the necessity of seeking Visegrad Group countries after their sustainable development through advancing accession to the European Union1, as cooperation in the field of modernisation well as the recent meetings held within of the V4 national economies with respect the framework of the Polish Presidency to entrepreneurship, research and of the Visegrad Group: the meeting of innovation, digital affairs, implementation ministers responsible for cohesion policy of the Europe 2020 strategy, establishing institutions resistant to political and 1 http://www.visegradgroup.eu/2004/declaration-of- economic crisis, securing safety and prime adequate standards of living;
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NOTING that the world economy the current discussions on data localisation is rapidly becoming digital and data driven; while guaranteeing free flow of data; that growing use of and investment in digital technologies and knowledge- STRESSING that efforts should be made -based human capital is profoundly to establish a full-fledged and connected transforming our societies and that European Digital Single Market in which the innovation is easier when data can flow free movement of goods, persons, services, safely, freely, preserving the credibility personal data and capital is ensured and integrity of data across borders; and where individuals and businesses and that the opportunities beyond own can seamlessly access and exercise borders of the EU should be explored. online activities under conditions of fair Adequate protection of personal data competition, and a high level of consumer shall be secured and the existing and and personal data protection, irrespective future EU legal framework for the of their nationality or place of residence; protection of personal data shall not, however, be subject of negotiations of UNDERLINING that advancing our vision the trade agreements, but rather dealt relies on the participation of all countries with separately through other available and on joint action to seize instruments (e.g. adequacy findings); the opportunities and tackle the evolving challenges of innovation economies NOTING that we should include and reflect becoming digital and that of reducing on national security related exceptions in market fragmentation.
The Visegrad Group agrees to further strengthen its ties by adopting the following Warsaw Declaration on mutual co-operation in research, innovation and digital affairs as follows:
• to promote internationally the Visegrad preparation for the next generation mobile region as a research and innovation services (5G); hub, cooperating in areas where mutual interests can be identified; • to reinvigorate the cooperation within the V4 Innovation Task Force through • to deepen the existing cooperation in continued regular meetings on different research, technology, innovation and focus themes, rendering it an effective digital affairs, particularly with the use institutional tool aimed at creating a solid of EU funds; basis for enhanced joint endeavours in the field of research and innovation; • to share the best practices and expertise to generate successful innovation and • to emphasize activities of the V4-Plus business models; “Regional Start-up Platform”, and to focus on innovation management and • to promote and publicly present the most knowledge sharing in the field of IP successful innovative projects which were services provided by National IP Offices, supported by R&D&I programmes; and by the Visegrad Patent Institute;
• to cooperate in the process of frequency • to provide opportunities to strengthen allocation in order to gain competitive and expand regional innovation clusters advantage for the V4 region in the and foster the innovation and/or digital
46 The Warsaw Institute Review Central Eastern Europe Innovators Summit
ecosystems within the framework • to address unjustified barriers to free flow of existing national and EU funding of data such as data localisation that mechanisms and for joint research, throttle economies of scale and thwart development and innovation projects to the growth of V4-based companies that access to capital and more rapid and should compete globally; effective commercialization of technology; • to cooperate closely on reviewing • to facilitate joint V4 research, the rules regulating the electronic development and innovation projects communications market and confirm inter alia by dedicating a special budget that main interest of our countries is to line in the International Visegrad Fund create clear unambiguous and future for R&D&I-related grants available to the proof rules which will give legal certainty scientific and business community; to all providers and users of electronic communication networks and digital • to secure transformation of innovative services; start-ups into successful businesses by leveraging capital, knowledge and • to develop policy frameworks that further networks and make joint efforts to promote effective privacy and data promote V4 innovative start-ups at protection; international level; • to emphasize the need to coordinate • to support SMEs in adoption of actions aimed at boosting innovation, digital technologies and taking competitiveness, innovativeness and part in Industry 4.0 projects; digital transformation of V4 countries and to coordinate positions at EU level • to support programmes at regional and with respect to research and innovation national levels aimed at increasing ICT and agree to meet regularly to advance and digital skills in all groups of people at progress in this field. all educational level; Signed in Warsaw, on 28th March 2017 • to secure the adoption of digital technologies and services in order to support the data economy at national and regional levels; …………………………………………….. Prime Minister of the Czech Republic • to improve the quality and affordability of ICT infrastructure, products and services through investment and fair and …………………………………………….. transparent policy and legal frameworks Prime Minister of Hungary that encourage competition;
• to work towards sustainable, efficient, …………………………………………….. resilient and secure cyber space Prime Minister of the Republic of Poland based, inter alia, on timely and proper implementation of the NIS Directive, allowing the joint internal market for the high level cyber security and protection …………………………………………….. of critical information infrastructures and Prime Minister of the Slovak Republic resources;
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PUTIN’S CHEKISTS Jan Gajewski When it was leaked that Vladimir Putin wanted to unify the Russian secret services into a single, powerful Ministry of State Security, there was a genuine sensation. A wave of warnings swept in against the return of the KGB and true terror akin to that of Stalin’s era.
owever, there is little reason which, according to its authors, revealed to treat the prospect of a plan of revolutionary reform of the such an eventual scenario state security apparatus in Russia, seriously. First, there is no prepared by the authorities. The leak Hevidence of it from the latest personnel was arranged to test the reactions to and organizational decisions in the ideas for change, and the authorities security apparatus. Second, creating were to wait to introduce them until the a single, unrivaled center of power in such results of the elections were known. The a sensitive area as state security would be decisive victory of Putin’s party, United absolutely opposite to the checks-and- Russia, was supposed to pave the way -balances rule, highly characteristic for revolutionary changes in the secret of Putin. Security sector reform is services. What were the most important a foregone conclusion, there is no doubt points of the leaked “plan”? about that. However, the direction it follows will certainly differ from I. the backward step depicted above. The Federal Security Service (FSB), the Foreign Intelligence Service (SWR) On the post-election morning and the Federal Protection Service (FSO) of September 19, the daily edition were apparently to be combined into of “Kommersant” published an article a single, powerful institution, nicknamed
48 The Warsaw Institute Review Putin’s Chekists
RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN SPEAKS AT A GALA NIGHT MARKING THE SECURITY SERVICES DAY IN MOSCOW, RUSSIA - DECEMBER 19, 2015. MEDIA REPORTS CITED PUTIN AS SAYING THAT THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION’S SECURITY SERVICE FSB HAD HELPED TO PREVENT MORE THAN 30 ATTEMPTED TERRORIST ATTACKS IN 2015.
© Alexey Druginyn/SPUTNIKVOSTI POOL/EPA (PAP/EPA)
1/2017 49 Special Forces
the Ministry of Internal Affairs, but The rule of “checks- the resistance of the opposition and -and-balances”, which the judicial branch was too strong. The is well-known in idea to merge former parts of the KGB into one force has been raised a few Western democracies times during Putin’s presidency as well. as well, (Russian However, Putin, despite being a former KGB employee himself, having opened cистема сдержек и all institutions and sectors of the state противовесов) is one to people from the security services, blocked the creation of “KGB 2.0”. This of the foundations was not because he has anything against of the government the people from the Lubyanka1 as such, but rather that he has a strong instinct model created by Putin. for self-preservation. For every tzar it is always better to have a few competing by some detractors the new KGB, with coteries at the court rather than a single, the official title of the Ministry of State dominating party that can eventually Security (MGB). This super-ministry become a threat to the throne. would be given new, greater powers The rule of “checks-and-balances”, and obligations, including the duty which is well-known in Western to “protect internal order and security democracies as well, (Russian cистема in all law enforcement authorities and сдержек и противовесов) is one of the security forces”, which presents the foundations of the government model possibility to control all such institutions created by Putin. It applies to all aspects in the country. The following changes of state functions, from the energy sector would also apply to other services and (Gazprom vs. Rosneft) to law enforcement institutions: structures. Putin prefers to divide and - liquidation of the Investigative rule the security apparatus, keeping the Committee (SKR) including its balance of power in the secret services structures in the Prosecutor General’s in check being the highest arbiter. Office, The previous rulers of the Kremlin also - merger of the Prosecutor General’s realized that one of the conditions for Office and the Ministry of Justice, them to remain in power was to ensure - liquidation of the Ministry of the loyalty of the security services. Emergency Situations (MCzS), In the Soviet era, the Communist Party - resources of MCzS to be divided exerted control over the KGB. However, between the Ministry of Defense and Putin lacks such a control apparatus, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which means that such a super-ministry - exclusion of the Presidential Security could become a threat to him, or, in the Service (SBP) from the structures of the best-case scenario, an unruly institution. FSO. Putin’s growing fear of a palace coup also diminishes the idea of the MGB. In the This idea of a return to a single, almighty current model of the security services, security service is not a new one in post- preparing and executing a coup requires -Soviet Russia. During his first the cooperation of at least a few services presidential term, Boris Yeltsin went and interest groups. By merging the most even further and attempted to combine powerful services into a single organism, the majority of the former KGB with 1 The popular name for the headquarters of the KGB.
50 The Warsaw Institute Review Putin’s Chekists
Putin would be slitting his own throat. The second worst nightmare for Putin is a social revolution and a “Russian The confusion Maidan”. Among the comments surrounding the responding to the alleged plan to establish publication of the article the MGB, there were some claims that it was a reaction caused by a fear of on “the plan to establish revolution. This explanation is very the MGB” confirms the simple, but also completely wrong. Firstly, the recently established National Guard very high level of tension Troops Service of the Russian Federation is within state security the praetorian guard of Putin in the event of internal turmoil. Secondly, creating structures in Russia. organizational chaos in the security services during the highly sensitive period Kremlin was previously reluctant to deny before the elections would only weaken the the reports on the MGB with certainty. law enforcement structures. Why did it take a month to reject rumors about the return of the KGB? One of the There have also been personnel decisions theories for this is that Putin and his made by Putin regarding the highest people behind that leak which served to positions in the security services, that compromise the idea of the MGB. Later contradict the thesis of “KGB 2.0”. it seemed that it was the objective of Assigning loyal and efficient people the FSB, and not Putin himself. There is to lead the SWR and the FSO (Sergey also another possibility: it was the FSB Naryshkin, the former Chairman of that wanted to exert pressure on the the State Duma, and Dmitri Kochnev, Kremlin by publishing the article; this the former bodyguard of the president, hypothesis is supported by the fact that respectively) suggests that both services “Kommersant” has been considered to be are going to be important in Putin’s state the FSB’s mouthpiece for a long time. security system. It can hardly be assumed that the president entrusted the position The confusion surrounding the of the head of intelligence to the previous publication of the article on “the plan to chairmen of the lower house of the establish the MGB” confirms the very parliament and an experienced colleague high level of tension within state security from Soviet services for a maximum of structures in Russia. The article and the one year. It is unlikely that Naryshkin related commotion are just another stage was the best candidate to liquidate of the fight for the future form of the the SWR. Therefore, a denial by the state security apparatus that, according former Chief of Staff of the Presidential to Putin’s idea, is supposed to be based Executive Office and a former high- on two strong pillars in the form of two -ranking intelligence officer, Sergei competing centers, which is in line with Ivanov, was not a surprise. In a press the “checks-and-balances” rule, utilizing interview from October 18, he denied a consolidated and economic formula. the “Kommersant” news report a month earlier. He stressed that intelligence and II. the counterintelligence cannot operate Putin’s vision for the functioning of the under unified leadership. It is unlikely state security apparatus in the coming that he came up with this kind of years of his presidency is based on the revelation on his own, especially as the assumption that there are two types of
1/2017 51 Special Forces © Maxim Shipenkov/EPA (PAP/EPA) AN OPPOSITION ACTIVIST STAGES A ONE-PERSON PICKET DURING AN ANTI-PUTIN PROTEST ACTION, DEMANDING FREEDOM FOR POLITICAL PRISONERS IN MOSCOW, RUSSIA - OCTOBER 27, 2012.
secret services operating in Russia. This years as the Commander-in-Chief of does not mean military and civilian internal troops. Zolotov is a former officer services. Putin is successfully creating of the Ninth Chief Directorate of the law enforcement institutions that are KGB. In the 1990s in Saint Petersburg, primarily loyal, not to the State but to he was responsible for protecting Putin; him personally. This means that we are after that he headed the Presidential facing the creation of an apparatus where Security Service for 13 years. In 2013, the FSB will look after the interests of the Putin sent the trusted officer to the regime, its members and the State they Ministry of Internal Affairs to prepare believe to be their property, while the the ground for the creation of the Russian safety of Putin himself and his position National Guard on the basis of internal will be taken care of by other institutions: troops. The new formation has already the National Guard and the FSO. been nicknamed ‘Putin’s praetorians’, as they answer directly to him, while their The most important event of the year for commander is the most trusted silovik2 the security forces was the creation of the of the president; some even say that he Russian National Guard, also known as is for Putin what Nikolai Vlasik, Stalin’s Russian Guards (Russian: Rosgvardiya). head of security, was for the Soviet As expected, Putin excluded internal dictator. On 4 October 2016, Putin issued troops from the structures of the a decree specifying the powers of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and created Russian Guards. The list contains about the National Guard on their basis. Other a hundred powers, including the right to military formations were also excluded conduct “information actions”, collect from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: 2 OMON and SOBR. They too are now part A Russian word for politicians from the security or military services, often the officers of the former of the Russian Guards, which is headed KGB, GRU, FSB, SVR, or other security services who by Viktor Zolotov, who spent nearly three came into power.
52 The Warsaw Institute Review Putin’s Chekists fingerprints, issue permits to sell guns Putin has already attempted to build his and give concessions to private security private security service before. In autumn agencies. The tasks of the formation 2007, after the famous siloviki“ war”, he totalling even half a million trained decided that he could no longer be sure and armed men (with its own armored of the loyalty of the FSB; therefore, he and air forces) also include securing the established the Investigative Committee state borders, fighting terrorism and of the Russian Federation (SKR). It organized crime, ensuring public order eventually transpired that this “Russian and protecting key facilities and state FBI” was not sufficient for his aims, infrastructure. It is difficult not to notice especially as it became very closely tied that the Russian Guards’ competencies to the Lubyanka. It was at this point overlap with those of the FSB and the that Putin decided to base his reign on FSO. This is not a coincidence, as the internal troops; in 2013 he entrusted Russian Guards are supposed to compete Zolotov with this mission and sent him to with the FSB and to complement the FSO. the Ministry of Internal Affairs. However, building the might of the Russian Guards The Federal Protection Service and its is no easy task. Preparations took nearly component, the Presidential Security three years, and when the formation was Service, are to serve as Putin’s personal ready, other siloviki, feeling threatened security service together with the by the new service, showed Putin National Guard. This is why in May 2016 that he would still have to take their Putin thanked Evgeny Murov, Head of opinions into consideration. He suffered the FSO, for his several years of service. an embarrassing setback regarding. The 71-year-old security services veteran On 6 April 2016, Putin issued a decree (in the KGB since 1971, and later in the assigning the newly appointed head of FSB) was one of the longest-serving the National Guard to be a permanent heads of security services in post-Soviet member of the Security Council of Russia (2000-2016), which clearly reflects the Russian Federation. However, the Putin’s trust in him. However, new times decree was corrected after only five days: call for even more loyal, and younger it turned out that Zolotov would have soldiers. This is why Putin appointed his actually been given the lower status of an own candidates to the positions of the ordinary member of the Security Council. heads of FSO and SBP instead of those This means, for example, that the director chosen by the outgoing Murov. The new of the FSB would be his superior. Director of the FSO, Dmitri Kochnev, was previously the head of SBP, where he was III. replaced by Alexei Rubezhnoi, Putin’s The FSB is to be the second pillar of the former aide-de-camp. Changes in these security system. This is apparent first positions are just as important as those from its activity in recent months and in the FSB, GRU or SWR. The Federal second from personnel decisions. Staff Protection Service is the most elite, and changes at the Lubyanka strengthened best equipped and manned security the position of the Secretary of the service in Russia. Moreover, it has as Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev many as 20,000 officers. Not only does the (former Director of FSB), and Zolotov. At FSO protect important facilities and state the same time, this does not undermine officials (in the case of the president, this the position of the current Director of is the role of the SBP), but it also serves a the Federal Security Service, Alexander function similar to the NSA in the United Bortnikov. There have been claims States (electronic intelligence). that these two figures, who in recent
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an elite cell with less than 40 employees, the 6th Main Directorate of Internal The FSB is to be the Safety (GUSB FSB). The service, created in 2007, remains a mystery, although second pillar of the there have been rumors that it is under security system. This the influence of Zolotov. Until recently, the 6th Directorate, was headed by Ivan is apparent first from Tkaczhev, while GUSB was headed by its activity in recent Sergei Korolev, who had previously been connected to the Minister of Defense, months and second from Anatoliy Serdyukov. personnel decisions. This list of special operations of the Korolev-Tkaczhev combination is months have clearly moved up in the FSB impressive. It all started in 2014 with the structures, are considered as potential arrest of the head and deputy head of the successors of Bortnikov. By the end of General Administration of Economic 2016, Yevgeny Zinichev unexpectedly Security and Combating the Corruption became FSB Deputy Director. He at the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Both is a former officer of the SBP; in the were charged with graft and lost their past he had been a member of Putin’s positions. Denis Sugrobov, heading the personal security team. In June 2015, anti-corruption structure of the Ministry the president assigned him to the FSB of Internal Affairs, was replaced by as head of the FSB’s regional directorate Dmitrij Mironov from the FSO, Zolotov’s for Kaliningrad. In July of the same man. Boris Kolesnikov fell from a balcony year, Zinichev became acting governor after the interrogation and died on the of the Kaliningrad region, and was later spot. In September 2015, GUSB FSB appointed to a new, specially-created detained the Governor of Komi Republic, sixth deputy director position at the FSB. Vyacheslav Gaizer, for corruption. At the Lubyanka, he would become the Alexander Khoroshavin, the Governor eyes and ears of Zolotov and, through of Sakhalin, who had connections with him, of Putin himself. He may also be Rosneft President Igor Sechin, was groomed to be the successor of Bortnikov. detained in March 2016. A few days later, Deputy Minister of Culture Grigoriy The second possible candidate for head Pirumov was arrested and, at the end of of the FSB, apart from Zinochev, is Sergei March 2016, the same fate befell Dmitry Korolev, the new head of the Economic Mikhalchenko, the most powerful Security Service division at the FSB businessman in Saint Petersburg, charged (SEB FSB). His position and role in the with smuggling and corruption. The recent actions of the FSB indicates that latter was actually a blow against Murov, the Kremlin chose him to be the “main as Mikhalchenko had some connections Oprichnik”. A series of FSB actions aimed with the FSO and the son of its director. at governors, members of the government However, it was the arrest of Nikita and officers of other security services Belykh, Governor of Kirov Oblast, by as part of the fight against corruption GUSB FSB that generated the greatest means that the Lubyanka is expanding its media attention, whereas the attack of influence and using powers which until the FSB on the Investigative Committee now had been unused. All major arrests of the Russian Federation (SKR) had the and revisions in 2016 can be attributed to greatest political importance. In July
54 The Warsaw Institute Review Putin’s Chekists
2016, GUSB detained a number of high- -ranking officers, including those closely connected to the Head of SKR Alexander It is not difficult to detect Bastrykin: Deputy Head of SKR in Moscow, General Denis Nikandrov, the hand of Putin in these and the Head of the Main Directorate development, as he knows of Interdepartmental Interaction and Inherent Security of the Moscow SKR, that the key to discipline Colonel Mikhail Maksimenko. Those the elites, especially arrests were connected to notorious gangster “Young Shakro”, who enjoyed during an economic the protection of the Moscow branch of crisis, is to wage an anti- the SKR in return for millions of rubles corruption crusade. in bribes. Bastrykin was not informed about the action. This was the first time that the FSB had decided to strike against especially during an economic crisis, is the Investigative Committee with which to wage an anti-corruption crusade. The it had always cooperated before, which power of this tool could be seen by the may confirm that the days of the SKR are elites in mid-November, when a blow was numbered. struck against the Minister of Economic Development, Alexey Ulyukaev. The Korolev-Tkaczhev alliance was also deployed in a purge within the FSB. IV. First, the Economic Security Service The year 2016 was one of the most division at the FSB (SEB FSB), which turbulent in post-Soviet history of state covers economic counter intelligence, security structures in Russia, as the accused the GUSB of an abuse of power greatest shifts since the beginning of in the Belykh case. In response, the Putin’s reign took place. Spectacular GUSB started to send inspection teams arrests and revisions, surprising to the SEB and accused their heads resignations and nominations, resulted of connections with the apprehended not only from the plans of the Kremlin, businessman Mikhalchenko. In June but also from an increasing nervousness and July 2016, the head of SEB and heads in the sector and officers’ attempts of departments subordinated to him: to secure their positions, without Department “K” (credit-financial sphere), consultations with their superiors. First, Department “P” (industry enterprises) through his decrees Putin liquidated and Department “T” (transport the Federal Migration Service (FMS) enterprises) were forced to resign. Korolev and the Federal Drug Control Service has become the new head of SEB, and (FSKN). Their assets were taken over Tkaczhev has become the head of the by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, as a crucial Department “K”. In this way the form of compensation for taking away the group considered to be connected to internal troops as well as the OMON and Zolotov achieved a monopoly on fighting the police Spetsnaz (SOBR) units. Calling corruption, destroying counterpart up the National Guard closed this first structures of the Ministry of Internal stage of reforms. The campaign led by Affairs, the SKR and the FSB in the the FSB against the Ministry of Internal process. It is not difficult to detect the Affairs and the SKR has been aimed hand of Putin in these development, as he at the ultimate marginalization of the knows that the key to discipline the elites, former’s role in the state security sector
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The dissolution of the KGB only formally broke the unity of the security apparatus.
and the probable liquidation of the latter. Interestingly, scandal avoided only the FSB and Russian Guards/FSO, which are the two pillars of the newly constructed security system. Standing aside, there are two other important stand-alone secret services: the civil intelligence (SWR) and the military intelligence (GRU). The latter was severely weakened by the Kremlin during Serdyukov’s reforms and now has no independent political role (i.e. is no longer a potential threat to Putin), as it concentrates the majority of its activities © Yuri Kochetkov/EPA (PAP/EPA) on military conflicts in which Russia participates (Ukraine, Syria). However, in early 2016 the military intelligence was strong enough to oppose Putin: instead separating them was merely a façade. of the former bodyguard of the president, To a large extent, this was caused by Alexei Dumin, it was Igor Korobov, personal reasons: the common KGB a man from within the “Aquarium”3 origins of medium and high-level who became the new head of the GRU. personnel in each service. It took a It was a tough battle, as confirmed by generation for things to start changing. the fact that the new head of the GRU Resignations of subsequent old-time was announced a month after the death heads of services and their replacement of his predecessor. As far as the SWR with officers whose careers practically is concerned, it cannot be perceived by started in Putin’s Russia strengthened the Putin as a potential collaborator in the breakdown of the Russian intelligence conspiracy against him, because of its community more than structural divisions specificity (intelligence operations outside and changes of names. Importantly, the country, mostly analytical functions). the shifts in executive positions were accompanied by the lowering of the The dissolution of the KGB only formally political importance of new heads of broke the unity of the security apparatus. services and departments. Viktor Ivanov, The area of internal safety, external Konstantin Romodanovski, Pawel Fradkov safety, and foreign intelligence have or Evgeny Murov were all much stronger been tied together and been the subject and independent players. Their successors of cooperation for a long time, and are not only younger, but also devoid of political ambitions, and ready to follow Putin’s orders to a greater extent than the 3 The nickname given to the GRU headquarters in Moscow. old comrades.
56 The Warsaw Institute Review Putin’s Chekists
PEOPLE PASS BY FEDERAL SECURITY SERVICE (FSB) BUILDING ENTRANCE HIDDEN BEHIND METAL PANELS IN LUBYANKA SQUARE IN MOSCOW, RUSSIA - NOVEMBER 9, 2015.
The third presidential term of Putin has stimulated an increase in the ambitions of people in the security services. First, Contrary to the veterans it has been encouraged by the general of the Soviet KGB, global trends of anti-US rhetoric, growing isolationism in Russia and the crisis of practically their entire the liberal project. Second, the role of careers are connected the secret services has expanded as a to Putinocracy, and it is result of conflicts in Ukraine and Syria. Militarization of state policy has made the Putin himself they owe Security Council, where siloviki are strongly the most to. represented (with the former head of FSB, Patrushev, as its Secretary), the real center of authority instead of the government. of another presidential term, a new type Faced with these new conditions, Putin has of chekist is emerging. Contrary to the to reconstruct the entire security system veterans of the Soviet KGB, practically their of the regime. Objective factors, including entire careers are connected to Putinocracy, the aging of the old guard, help him in this and it is Putin himself they owe the most respect. After a few years of his reign, Putin to. It is they who are eager to secure the was less dependent on his former friends continuous reign of the current incumbent from the Lubyanka, who took positions of the Kremlin. in nearly all areas of public life: business, policy, law enforcement institutions, central Jan Gajewski administrations and regions. On the brink November 20, 2016
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Modernizing Poland’s Armed Forces Maciej Kucharczyk Poland is in the midst of a wide-ranging process of modernizing its armed forces, on which it will spend around $15 billion by 2022. In particular, much of these funds will be allocated to the purchase of equipment and technology from abroad.
bove all, this process was the first major arms contract since the fall caused by two decades of communism was signed in 2003 for an of neglect. After the fall order of Rosomak armored transports, of communism and the end licensed from Finland, but produced and Aof the Cold War, defense spending was developed in Poland. Similarly, in 2004, significantly curtailed. In effect, the an agreement was made for the delivery of process of systematically replacing aging 48 multi-role F-16 fighters, which was the equipment was interrupted, which led largest arms deal in modern Polish history. to the collapse of the contract-starved, domestic defense industry. It was not until after 2010 that a This modernization is also being forced comprehensive strategy began to by the worsening security situation in be formulated, which was meant to Europe, especially after the Russian encompass the entire process of equipment aggression in Ukraine in 2014 and the modernization of the Polish Armed Forces increase in Russian defense spending. over the course of a decade. The “Technical Modernization Plan” (Plan Modernizacji Financial Challenge Technicznej, or PMT) was first presented For many years, weaponry for the Polish in 2012 and covered the period 2013-2022. Armed Forces was purchased according It formally remains in effect to the present to itemized lists, detached from any day, but with a change in the ruling party coherent, multi-year strategy. This is how in 2015, it was audited and modified.
58 The Warsaw Institute Review Modernizing Poland’s Armed Forces
© Lech Muszyński (PAP) ŻAGAŃ, POLAND - JANUARY 30, 2017. ANDRZEJ DUDA, PRESIDENT OF POLAND (SECOND FROM RIGHT); ANTONI MACIEREWICZ, MINISTER OF DEFENSE (RIGHT); PAUL The initial plan was determined to have W. JONES, UNITED STATES AMBASSADOR TO POLAND (THIRD FROM RIGHT); LIEUTENANT GENERAL TIMOTHY underestimated procurement costs by RAY, DEPUTY COMMANDER, UNITED STATES EUROPEAN half, which has led to the reduction of COMMAND (THIRD FROM LEFT); LIEUTENANT GENERAL new purchases and their partial delay BEN HODGES, COMMANDER UNITED STATES ARMY EUROPE (SECOND FROM LEFT). TAKEN DURING THE to a future date. Many experts were INAUGURATION OF POLISH-AMERICAN MILITARY TRAINING already calling for such a solution in 2013, EXERCISES WITH THE 3RD BRIGADE ARMORED COMBAT since the PMT in its original form was TEAM AT THE FIRING RANGE IN ŻAGAŃ. SOLDIERS FROM POLAND AND THE UNITED STATES WILL BE TRAINING unrealistic. TOGETHER DAILY AND PARTICIPATING IN MILITARY EXERCISES. Based on current assumptions, $15 billion will be spent by 2022 on weaponry alone, not maintain this level as recommended wherein contracts for around $4 billion by the alliance. The Ministry of Defense of have already been signed since 2013. A Poland (Ministerstwo Obrony Narodowej, number of armaments programs are set to MON) is optimistic and assures that start in 2022, but part of their financing there is no threat to the realization of the falls into later years, so their costs are not modified PMT. Yet, it is highly likely that counted in the aforementioned $15 billion. a number of lower-priority arms programs On the whole, this is the largest defense will be delayed into the future. On the spending plan among the new NATO whole, however, there is little risk of an members, and exceeds the planned arms overall freeze to the modernization plan. purchases of many countries in Western Europe. High Priority, but not the Highest The PMT may yet to be subject to further All of the major parties on the Polish changes. The modernization plans are political scene are convinced of the very ambitious and will constitute a necessity to maintain a high level of heavy burden on the national budget. defense spending. Poland finds itself in an Defense spending in Poland accounts adverse geopolitical position, as a frontline for 2% of GDP, a rarity among NATO NATO country positioned on the edge members, the vast majority of which do between the alliance’s area of influence
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the equipment still comes from the Cold War era. Equipment purchased in the The preferred situation 1970s and 1980s, when large purchases is the production of were made during times of tension with the West, has reached the end of armaments inside the its lifespan, while refurbishment and country, in cooperation maintenance to keep it serviceable is no with foreign partners longer cost-effective. who supply the Lessening the possibility of meaningful cuts is underlined with the fact that technology and key the government has officially declared components, whose the PMT as an opportunity to inject serious funds into the Polish defense production in Poland industry. Most of the expenditures on would otherwise be cost new equipment will stay in Poland and inefficient. help in the development of the economy. The preferred situation is the production of armaments inside the country, in and Russia’s imperial ambitions. Therefore, cooperation with foreign partners in the event of escalating tensions and who supply the technology and key a possible armed conflict, battles will be components, whose production in Poland fought on her territory in the first place. would otherwise be cost inefficient.
The feeling of danger is amplified in Based on the preceding, cuts in Polish Polish society by the deeply rooted defense spending should not be expected skepticism towards the willingness of in the foreseeable future; however, Western allies to come to their aid in the the aforementioned delay of certain event of a crisis. This view originated programs may come to pass, especially from the experience of World War II if the economic situation deteriorates. when France and Great Britain did not The substantial increase in social welfare provide any support to Poland during the spending by the ruling Law and Justice first month of the conflict, the so-called (PiS) party has led to a record budget “September Campaign”, which ended deficit. If the country’s financial situation in the ignominious defeat of the Polish worsens, it will put pressure on defense army. This skepticism is strengthened expenditures. In Poland defense is not as by the low outlays on defense by nearly critical as in Russia, for example, and will all of the Western NATO member states be curtailed if there is a risk to funds for and statements made by their politicians, social service spending. some of whom have pro-Russian views (especially François Fillon and Marine Procurement Plans for Land Le Pen, both serious candidates for the Forces President of France). The largest and most important component of the Polish military is Moreover, the current state of equipment its Land Forces, which are considered of the Polish Armed Forces does not indispensable in a country bereft of large allow for modernization to be delayed any natural barriers on the plain between further. Despite a number of completed Western Europe and Russia. Currently, and ongoing arms programs, over half of they include 13 armored, mechanized and
60 The Warsaw Institute Review Modernizing Poland’s Armed Forces airmobile brigades, along with numerous smaller support units, while around 49,000 soldiers serve in them. According The largest and most to the newest version of the PMT, the important component of modernization of the armored and mechanized brigades, forming most of the Polish military is its the Land Forces, is one of five priorities. Land Forces, which are
Several large arms programs are currently considered indispensable in effect. First of all, 142 Leopard 2A4 in a country bereft of tanks, which were purchased from Germany, are being modernized into the large natural barriers 2PL variant. Also, 105 newer Leopard on the plain between 2A5 tanks will serve until the 2030s as the foundation of Poland’s armored forces Western Europe and after bringing them to a decent level that Russia. will allow for an equal playing field in battle with most Russian tanks. However, cooperation with foreign partners, have problems remain with the 232 PT-91 already submitted proposals of such Twardy (Resilient) tanks and the 150 or a light tank named Anders; however, the so T-72M tanks (with several hundred program is still in its infancy and the first more sitting in warehouses). deliveries are not expected to be until after 2022. The first are T-72s modernized in the 1990s. They represent technology that The Borsuk armored transporter will be is now 25-year-old and are increasingly based on the same chassis as the PL- irrelevant to the modern battlefield. 01, which is meant to replace over 1000 Officially however, there is no plan to archaic BWP-1s from the 1970s that are modernize or replace them. Unofficially, still being used by the Polish military, but the possibility of buying used Leopard 2s were never modernized. So the Borsuk or M1 Abrams tanks is being considered, is a higher priority than the PL-01 and is but the problem here is the potential extremely important for the armed forces. cost or the availability of tanks in an Based on current plans, the beginning appropriate condition. of mass production is set to start in 2019 and the first prototype is to be finished Meanwhile, the T-72Ms are completely this year. Meanwhile, the main contractor outdated and have very limited utility on is Huta Stalowa Wola in Poland. the battlefield. According to the Ministry of Defense, they are to be replaced by the Work to improve the modern, wheeled PL-01 armored fighting vehicle, which Rosomak armored transporter is ongoing, can be considered a light tank. They are some of which will include Israeli, anti- significantly under-armored compared to armor, Spike rocket launcher integration. traditional tanks, but equipped with the Preparations for the production of an same armament, in the form of a 120mm unmanned, ZSSW-30 tower are also cannon. Similar vehicles, based on a tank ongoing, which will substantially raise tread chassis, are rare elsewhere in the the combat capabilities of the Rosomak. world. The CV90120-T light tank is one The production of much-needed example, but it never left the prototype reconnaissance and technical assistance stage. Polish defense manufacturers, in vehicles has already begun.
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Within the Land Forces, a wide-ranging modernization of its artillery continues. At the end of 2016, the largest arms Taking into contract in years (over $1 billion) was consideration that Russia signed for the production of almost one wields a relatively strong hundred 155mm Krab gun-howitzers. This modern armament, a combination air force, while Poland, of British, Korean, French and Polish next to the Baltics, finds technology, is produced by Huta Stalowa Wola. The self-propelled, 120mm caliber itself in close proximity mortar, Rak, based on the Rosomak to Russian air bases, transporter chassis, is also produced there. For about $250 million, 64 of them will be possessing suitably produced. strong anti-aircraft
Currently, within the bounds of artillery defenses has become modernization, one big purchase is left to a priority matter. be realized — long-range rocket launchers. The Homar program is meant to provide Poland with equipment capable of precise be rearmed with short-range, Iskander attacks on targets 300km away. Polish ballistic missiles. Though it is not industry does not have the appropriate official, these can almost certainly be technology so it will only supply the armed with nuclear warheads. These chassis; the rest has to be purchased weapons are a serious threat, especially abroad. The biggest possibilities lie with as Poland’s military has no anti-missile companies in the US (HIMARS system) defenses. or Israel (LYNX system). Considering these challenges, Poland Anti-Aircraft and Missile plans to purchase mid-range Wisła anti- Defense Programs aircraft and anti-missile systems, and Though the Land Forces are the short-range Narew systems, through two most numerous, their modernization programs. Both weapons programs are will consume less money than the thought to total around $15 billion ($10 replacement of practically all of the anti- billion for the first and $5 billion for the aircraft systems of the Polish military. second), while their financing stretches The current systems are old, some of beyond 2022, so it is not entirely covered which have their roots in the 1960s in the current PMT. The company with while most are decidedly insufficient the biggest chance at landing the first to the demands of modern warfare. contract, which will also be the biggest in Taking into consideration that Russia the history of the Polish Armed Forces, wields a relatively strong air force, while is the US consortium Raytheon, which Poland, next to the Baltics, finds itself offers the Patriot system. The competition in close proximity to Russian air bases, is the US-German-Italian system possessing suitably strong anti-aircraft MEADS, as well as the French-Italian defenses has become a priority matter. SAMP/T. Discussions are well-advanced, Additionally, in the Kaliningrad Oblast but they were delayed by nearly three on the Polish border, the Russians years. The government has declared that possess a rocket brigade, which over an agreement will be signed this year and the course of several years will surely that deliveries will start in 2019, although
62 The Warsaw Institute Review Modernizing Poland’s Armed Forces © Tomasz Waszczuk (PAP) OSTRÓDA, POLAND - JUNE 2, 2016. ANTONI MACIEREWICZ, MINISTER OF DEFENSE OF POLAND, HANDLES A SIX-BARREL M134 MINIGUN MACHINEGUN AT A TRADE EXHIBITION. THE FIRST “PRO DEFENSE 2016” DEFENSE INDUSTRY TRADE FAIR WAS HELD AT THE EXHIBITION AND CONFERENCE CENTER OF WARMIA AND MASURIA IN OSTRÓDA, DEDICATED ABOVE ALL TO THE TERRITORIAL DEFENSE FORCE CREATED BY THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE (MON). the same was promised last year. The possession of the Polish military are negotiations regarding the purchase of outdated and will require replacing the Narew system are far less advanced. in the next few years. Purchases were For now, the offers of numerous to be conducted through two large companies are undergoing an initial procurement auctions, one for multi- review. Based on the latest plans, the first -purpose helicopters and the other for deliveries will be in 2021. Both programs assault helicopters. The first was formally assume a high degree of Polonization, in settled in 2015 and won by Airbus other words a transfer of technology and Helicopters for the H225M, yet after the production to Poland. Officially this is to change in government, talks were called amount to 50%. off, motivated by insufficiently attractive offset agreements. The episode was Beyond the Wisła and Narew programs, steeped in scandal. the Polish military is purchasing numerous short-range, anti-air systems. A new procedure is underway. Everything For about $1 billion, several types of indicates that for now, a smaller number anti-air cannons and hand-held, anti-air of helicopters will be purchased and rockets have been ordered from Polish not just one type, but rather several (the companies, the deliveries of which are previous plan was to use one type for in progress. Since this is less advanced multiple jobs — anti-submarine warfare, equipment than short- and medium- marine rescue and combat and transport). range systems, the needs are met almost The company with the biggest chance of entirely by the Polish defense industry. winning the contract is the Italian firm Leonardo, which owns the Polish PZL Modernizing the Air Force Świdnik works and Lockheed Martin, In the past year, emotions in Poland which controls the Polish PZL Mieliec were stirred by the purchase of new works. The production and service of the helicopters. Most of those in the new helicopters is supposed to be, at least
1/2017 63 Army © Radek Pietruszka (PAP) ZIELONKA, NEAR WARSAW, POLAND - DECEMBER 7, 2016. A UNIT OF COMMANDOS FROM LUBLINIEC TAKING PART IN A DEMONSTRATION DURING A MEETING OF THE MINISTER OF DEFENSE, DEFENSE MINISTRY AND ARMED FORCES MANAGERIAL STAFF, AS WELL AS EXPERTS AND MEDIA, REGARDING THE CREATION OF THE TERRITORIAL DEFENSE FORCE.
in part, based in Poland. In parallel, there armament - the Szturm anti-tank rockets are plans for the serious modernization - have also been withdrawn from service of part of the post-Soviet helicopters from due to their age. In their place, the defense the Mi-8/17 family, in cooperation with ministry plans to buy 32 new assault the Ukrainian Motor-Sicz company, which helicopters, 16 of which before 2022, has produced their engines since the whose main mission is to destroy enemy Soviet era. Perhaps, in the coming several armored vehicles. Potential candidates years, attempts will be made to purchase include the American Boeing AH-64E new helicopters. The cost of the entire Guardian and Bell AH-1Z, French Airbus undertaking is hard to estimate; however, Helicopters Tiger and the Italian Lenardo the initial auction was to cost around $3 A129 Mangusta or its Turkish variant, billion. the T129 ATAK. The price of the purchase is unknown; the defense ministry has At the same time, the Kruk program presented divergent figures, but it can is ongoing, with the aim of purchasing be estimated to be at around $2 billion. assault helicopters which will replace the worn-out, post-Soviet Mi-24 whose Besides helicopters, the Polish military fighting potential is very limited because must replace part of its aircraft fleet. The many have been used up as a result of age Polish Air Force has 48 relatively modern, and their intensive use in Afghanistan F-16 Block 52 fighters, bought in the first and Iraq. Most importantly, their basic decade of the 21st century. Yet the rest of
64 The Warsaw Institute Review Modernizing Poland’s Armed Forces the Air Force includes 32 post-Soviet MiG- 29 fighters and 18 Su-22 bombers. Half of these fighters were modernized and can The modernization of the serve for about another decade. Yet the navy is one of the priorities rest of the MiG-29s and all of the Su-22s are of little value on the battlefield and, of the PMT, which includes realistically, should be withdrawn from an adequate number of service by 2025. The problem is that the PMT does not account for the purchase of marine defense programs. new planes before 2022 and there are no The key is the purchase funds for it. For now, the defense ministry is conducting analyses about what should of new ships. be purchased. The most likely solution is the purchase of used and modernized or Formally, the modernization of the navy new F-16s. Buying more planes of this type is one of the priorities of the PMT, which would mean the limitation of expenditures includes an adequate number of marine tied to logistics and training. In the defense programs. The key is the purchase long-term perspective, closer to 2030, of new ships. First, under the Orka is the purchase of fifth-generation F-35 program, the military wants to obtain Lightning II fighters. three new submarines (relatively small, conventionally powered subs, adapted to Smaller purchases of precision armaments Baltic Sea conditions), additionally armed for the F-16s already in service are with maneuverable, long-range rockets, ongoing, while the biggest contracts like the Tomahawk or MdCN. Over a are for long-range, JASSM and JASSM- period of two years, however, work has ER rockets. The first have already been not moved forward substantially and a delivered to Poland and an agreement for procurement process has not yet officially the second was signed at the end of 2016. started. Once this happens, there will be three bidders: France’s DCNS (Scorpene Serious Fleet Problems ships), Germany’s ThyssenKrupp (U-214) Poland was never a seafaring country and and Sweden’s Saab (A26). Deliveries are did not have a strong navy until the 20th planned after 2024 and if it comes to pass, it century. This change was largely due to will be the most expensive marine program, the country’s geopolitical position which estimated at $2.5–3 billion. forces Poland to concentrate on defending its eastern and western land borders. The The next big programs are Miecznik and Polish Navy continues to be treated as Czapla. With regard to the first, there a kind of inferior category of the armed are to be three relatively strong armed forces. Since the end of communism, no corvettes and under the second, three major investments have been made in this patrol ships capable of clearing mines. area while no significant modernization They will all be based on the same hull program has taken effect. As a result, the design. Construction is to take place in navy is in a state of decay: its most valuable Polish shipyards but in cooperation with forces are three small Orkan rocket foreign industry. For now, both programs ships (armed with RBS15 Mk-3 anti-ship are in their infancy. In 2016, an ongoing rockets) and the Coastal Rocket Division procurement process was terminated and (Nabrzeżny Dywizjon Rakietowy, NDR), prepared anew. The delivery of ships is set with a second division currently being for after 2021, while the estimated costs equipped with NSM rockets. have not yet been released.
1/2017 65 Army © Lech Muszyński (PAP) ŻAGAŃ, POLAND - JANUARY 30, 2017. DEFENSE MINISTER ANTONI MACIEREWICZ (LEFT) AND UNITED STATES ARMY EUROPE COMMANDER GENERAL FREDERICK HODGES (RIGHT), AT A PRESS CONFERENCE AFTER A MEETING AT THE 11TH LUBUSKIE CAVALRY DIVISION IN ŻAGAŃ. THE TALKS CONCERNED THE DEPLOYMENT OF AMERICAN TROOPS IN POLAND.
Against the backdrop of these weakly in the Łucznik Weapons Factory on the advanced programs, work on the new MSBS, which entails an entire modern Kormoran II mine destroyers stands out, family of rifles. In the future, it will be with nearly $200 million already having the basic weapon of the Polish military, been spent on them. The first of three which will supplant the Kalashnikov- ships is to be turned over to the navy in based AK system and its deeply modified the first quarter of 2017. Its construction variant, the Beryl. Currently, the basic rifle in the Gdynia shipyard, Remontowa is undergoing testing in select divisions; Shipbuilding, is one of the few Polish however, when they will be accepted arms programs that have not run into any into service and begin to be purchased is major problems or delays. Additionally, not yet clear. On a positive note, regular the majority of the equipment for this deliveries of Jelcz trucks are in progress. program has also been supplied exclusively By the end of 2018, an order for nearly 1000 supplied by Polish industry. Equipment vehicles will be filled, worth $150 million. for combatting sea mines has been its Analyses, in advance of procurement specialty and strength since the times of auctions for digital communications the communist Polish People’s Republic. systems, are ongoing, which will bring command and control over the Polish The PMT also contains a slew of smaller military into the 21st century. programs meant to give the navy various auxiliary ships (including tankers, tugs, Next to these standard modernization rescue ships) as well as different systems, processes, dependent on buying new such as port defenses against sabotage. Most equipment, the leadership of the defense programs, however, are not far advanced ministry is pushing a new solution which and have distant realization dates. will significantly change the situation of the Polish military. A Territorial Defense Not Only Regular Forces (Obrona Terytorialna) is being built, Besides the aforementioned main arms which in brief is meant to act similarly to programs, lots of smaller ones are also the National Guard, but with much less planned. The list is long but it is worth ambitious tasks, lighter armaments and mentioning for example the work done subordinated to the defense ministry,
66 The Warsaw Institute Review Modernizing Poland’s Armed Forces and not to regional leaders. The soldiers of the Territorial Defense will be mainly tasked with assisting the military and A Territorial Defense playing a supporting role in the rear. (Obrona Terytorialna) Eventually, the formation will include 50,000 volunteers. For now, structures are is being built, which being built in Eastern European eastern in brief is meant to act countries bordering with Belarus and Russia. The Territorial Defense has many similarly to the National opponents who argue that poorly equipped Guard, but with much and trained “weekend warriors” will less ambitious tasks, siphon urgently needed money away from the modernization of the professional, lighter armaments and frontline army. subordinated to the The defense ministry has declared a desire defense ministry, and not to invest significantly in cyber-defense. to regional leaders. Under the PMT, $250 million has been allocated for this purpose, which is significant, given the years of neglect of the communist era, it lacked modern cyberspace by the military. technology and the black hole of the But what exactly is meant to be done with 1990s only worsened the situation. For this money is not yet clear due largely nearly a decade now, one can see the clear to a dearth of specific information and rebuilding of production potential, yet it deadlines. is still insufficient for the timely deliveries of large amounts of modern equipment to Plans are one thing, but be the standard. Apart from delays, there reality is another… is a problem with production quality Based on the juxtaposition above, it is and an inability to master the newest clear that Poland has a very ambitious technologies. The solution is primarily modernization plan for its armed to buy foreign licenses and cooperate forces. If it were actually realized in the with international defense contractors. established timeframe, the Polish military Nevertheless, the current government would unquestionably become one of is seeking the maximum Polonization the key players in Europe. The problem of purchased equipment, which aims to can be seen with the current experience strengthen Polish industry and return in realizing the PMT, in that politicians the largest possible amount of defense treat it elastically. Established deadlines, expenditures back into the economy. in most cases, have turned out to be extremely optimistic and nearly all of There is little doubt however that Poland the programs have already been delayed will long be one of the most attractive by several years. Due to overambitious markets in Europe for Western defense goals, and given the available funds, contractors. Especially since competition certain programs have to be substantially from Russia’s strong defense industry, for curtailed, for example the purchase of political reasons, is not a factor. multi-role helicopters.
A serious problem is the weakness of Maciej Kucharczyk Poland’s defense industry. Already in March 1, 2017
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POZNAŃ, POLAND - OCTOBER 11, 2014. JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI, LAW AND JUSTICE PARTY (PIS) PRESIDENT, DURING THE PIS WIELKOPOLSKA PROVINCE ELECTORAL CONVENTION IN POZNAŃ: “POLAND NEEDS ECONOMIC PATRIOTISM”.
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© Jakub Kaczmarczyk (PAP) Modern Patriotism Rafał Zgorzelski, PhD What characterizes the most dynamic and often the richest economies in the world? What is the common denominator that links diverse countries such as the U.S., Japan, South Korea and Germany - countries with their own traditions, history, culture and differing social and political systems and geography, playing the role of the economic hegemons of the modern world?
egardless of their differences, for the development of domestic the wealthiest and enterprises and their promotion abroad simultaneously most should be the primary aim of the trade economically powerful countries strategy of the state. This does not mean Rshare one common trait - economic a lack of openness to foreign cooperation patriotism, which consists of two elements: and capital investment, which can and trade patriotism and consumer patriotism. should positively affect the development of the economy of the country. Besides, I. in the entire process of creating national The notion of trade patriotism means wealth, good international agreements and actions whose main objective is to conventions play a positive role, and build support the economy of the country business relationships through which each through the public and private sectors. party can and should achieve numerous Good public administration has a benefits. positive impact on the development of native entrepreneurship in domestic and The essence of economic patriotism is international markets. Creating conditions not to thoughtlessly create barriers to the
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national interest, which is essential to the civilizational development of societies The notion of trade and states. patriotism means II. No less important for the development actions whose main of national economies remains the element of consumer patriotism, present objective is to support in consumer buying habits. Acquiring domestic products, such as fruits, the economy of the vegetables, domestic beer and cheese, translates into an increase in tax revenues country through the to the state budget and the development of domestic companies, thus raising funds public and private for investment and job creation. This is sectors. how consumers perceive the reality in the United States or Germany, where through development of honest competition conscious choices of products and services or to support the unequal treatment that support their own economies, they of suppliers, contractors or entrepreneurs contribute through individual buying in general through subjective criteria. decisions to increase the wealth of their For instance, in countries such as own societies. Germany, France, Japan and the U.S., state support is obvious, as is the Economic patriotism, a term which establishment of cooperation between is by no means to be confused with native entities wherever rational. protectionism or interventionism, is now a trend that is clearly making a mark on Even entrepreneurs paying taxes in their the world. This is especially so in Western own country is an expression of economic societies, where consumers, conscious of nationalism, which may also lead to the their purchasing decisions, are guided by development of a certain image in the both economic conditions as well as the market. Of course, entrepreneurs must values underpinning the acquired service have confidence that their decisions or product, while the administration of the will be supported by the institutions state strives to create favorable conditions of the state, which in turn will loyally for the development of domestic business, support their interests. The existence of which in turn loyally supports the state. international competition and capital It is a far more developed phenomenon in investments are therefore a good thing, Western countries and actively promoted but even the states cited above understand by politicians, especially noticeable in the perfectly that their duty and the U.S., primarily from the time of the 2008 fundamental objective of their economic crisis, which was caused by the collapse policies is to develop a strong class of of the credit market. entrepreneurs and build the wealth of their own societies. These interests The turmoil caused in the markets and will also be served by creating lasting global stock exchanges had a sobering relationships, ties and common interests, impact on the approach of both the including economic ones, for the benefit United States as well as other societies in of all participants of the market, while the world to economic problems. These keeping in mind the primacy of the events led U.S. companies to start reducing
70 The Warsaw Institute Review Modern Patriotism
© Marcin Obara (PAP) WARSAW, POLAND - MAY 11, 2016. PRIME MINISTER BEATA SZYDŁO (RIGHT) DURING THE OPENING OF THE “TIME FOR ECONOMIC PATRIOTISM” DEBATE, STAGED AT THE PGE NATIONAL STADIUM IN WARSAW. production and employment, to withdraw from foreign investments and, with the support of the state, to return production, No less important for services and capital to the nation. Economic patriotism flew on Barack the development of Obama’s election banners when seeking national economies re-election to the presidency in 2012. As leader of the Democratic Party, his remains the element of platform ( “A New Economic Patriotism: A Plan for Jobs and Middle-Class consumer patriotism, Security”) encouraged the support of small and mid-sized domestic enterprises, the present in consumer use of indigenous sources of energy and the improvement of tax collection in order buying habits. to reduce the budget deficit. companies, which seek to lower operating Trade and consumer patriotism is even costs, including labor costs, by moving more strongly emphasized by Republicans their operations or significant elements in the U.S. For instance, the issue was thereof (as was the case with Ford, who clearly raised by Republican presidential withdrew from plans to build a new $700 candidate Donald Trump, during the 2016 million plant in Mexico, instead opting election campaign. Indeed, Trump even for investment in Flat Rock, Michigan) demanded patriotism from companies, outside the U.S., and then wanting to sell promising less regulation in return and their goods in the country. U.S. President the facilitation of business, including Trump was direct and stated that his through tax cuts. However, he bluntly and administration will be guided by two openly announced that he will not hesitate simple rules: buy American and employ to impose high tariffs on American Americans. Trump thus wants American
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patriotism to have a very practical action to promote a properly defined idea dimension, which is what modern of economic patriotism by identifying economic patriotism is based on. It is not what function individual consumers, state a matter of declarations, but taking authorities and entrepreneurs play in the action. It is worth noting that in the U.S., economic circulatory system and showing UK, Japan and South Korea, betting why such an approach is meaningful. on economic patriotism is obvious, while one’s own worldview and political Economic patriotism consists of the persuasion make little difference. individual choices of entrepreneurs, consumers, and policy makers, including III. the shape of legislation which should Today, economic patriotism is one support the development of the economy, of the most important development as well as government spending. Economic trends in mature economies and patriotism also means supporting the societies. Patriotism is understood investment of foreign capital in such a as the cooperation of many entities way that does not harm the interests and and institutions that have their own, security of the functioning of the state, often divergent interests, yet through for example in the energy, railway and cooperation achieve great benefits that telecommunications markets. reach the rest of the country at the same time. The role of protecting and In Poland awareness is increasing of strengthening the interests of the state the need to support the development grows by shaping trade and consumer of an independent economy based on policy conducive to cooperation and partnership with the countries of the expansion, creating good law, and European Union and other economies supporting local companies. It is precisely around the world. At the core of the economic patriotism that is one of the institutional transformation that initiated key elements in the success of the largest the political changes of 1989 was the economies in the world. conviction that the solutions offered by multinational corporations were definitely Caring for Poland means taking care of better - and synonymous with luxury -, Polish interests and having high standards, which for Poles, weighed down by decades as supporting your own producers cannot of communism, meant a can of Coca-Cola mean promoting mediocrity, nor closing or jeans. An inferiority complex, alien to off cooperation with other economies of Western societies, was formed in relation the world. Rather, it takes indispensable to most things foreign.
In the meantime, Polish brands, including DRUTEX (the largest producer of PVC Today, economic joints in Europe), FAKRO (a global market leader in roof windows), CCC (leader of patriotism is one of the Polish retail footwear market and its the most important largest producer), CD Projekt (producer of popular video games, including those development trends based on the series of novels by Andrzej Sapkowski, The Witcher), GINO ROSSI in mature economies (one of the most respected Polish brands in the market of production and sale and societies. of footwear and footwear accessories),
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INGLOT (one of the world’s largest manufacturers of cosmetics), PESA (manufacturer of both conventional and Today, Poland is a electric trains and trams) and SOLARIS (one of the leading manufacturers of local stable and reliable and intercity buses, trams and trolleybuses in Europe) did not just cross Polish partner. borders, but are taking the world by storm. positively affect the relationship between IV. domestic and foreign enterprises. In recent years, throughout East-Central Europe, the importance of regional and An example of the powerful position local businesses, domestic entrepreneurs, of foreign capital in Poland is the trade as well as the steadily falling percentage dominated by grocery store chains such of companies controlled by foreign as the Portugese Biedronka, German investors, has gradually been increasing. Kaufland, Lidl and Real, the Danish Companies controlled by the state Netto, British Tesco and the French continue to play a big role, among Carrefour, Auchan, E.Leclerc and which the dominant position is held Intermarche. The food industry however by Polish companies such as PKN stands out positively, in that Poles are Orlen, PGNiG, KGHM, Lotos and PGE; increasingly willing to opt for native enterprises strategically important to products, while the country’s dynamic the functioning of the country. It is no domestic market is developing in organic accident that these companies draw foods, whose estimated value exceeds the most attention; more than 65% of 700 million PLN ($175 million). state-owned companies are situated in the energy sector. These companies Today, Poland is a stable and reliable play an important role in the efforts to partner. In economic policy, a positive build a strong and independent position trend can be seen that strengthens the for the Polish energy sector, as well autonomy of the state and builds a strong as strengthening the position of East- and independent economic position Central Europe on the global energy in the world. The Polish government map. Besides, it is the largest enterprises, is turning away from the path chosen in addition to the public administration, after 1989, which rested on a thoughtless which are the flagships of the domestic approach that assumed that international economy. capital had no nationality, and instead is emphasizing the need to nurture In the opinion of this author, they should and support native entrepreneurship. be the ones to create specific standards The country is interested in foreign and best practices in business, and well as investments and good international in the life of the entire state. This creates cooperation, but it is also beginning to patterns and provides incentives and understand, based on the models prospects for the development of small of Western countries, the need to protect businesses, which through cooperation national economic interests. Poles, with major national players strengthens however, still have to develop a form their market position, economic stability of habitual economic patriotism and potential growth. One can assume economic. that in the long term, the creation of Rafał Zgorzelski conditions for fair competition will March 8, 2017
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Polish Eagles in Canada: Opportunities in Doing Business with Poland Tomasz Kijewski Did you know that almost every passenger aircraft in the world is equipped with at least one part manufactured in Poland? Did you know that this 1000-year-old country on the Vistula River is a full member of NATO, the European Union and has been strengthening its economic position position, even during the global financial crisis?
oland is one of the most dynamic Polish investments contribute economies in Central and to regional development Eastern Europe with almost in Canada 4% annual GDP growth and is Poland not only trades with, but invests Pthe top trade partner with Canada in the in job creation in Canada. Just in the region. It supplies high-tech, innovative, past five years, Polish companies (oil and high quality products to Canada and giant Orlen and the main producer other demanding markets – to Germany, of copper and silver KGHM, among Great Britain, France and the United others) have invested over $3.6 billion in States. The success of Poland in this regard Canada. Canadian companies operating is becoming acknowledged more and in Poland include giants such as Pratt & more, but a lot needs to be done in this Whitney Canada (United Technologies), respect. Meanwhile, it seems that it can Bombardier Transportation, and the be profitable to do business with Poland construction potentate SNC-Lavalin. – especially in the context of the planned Other companies – often small and Comprehensive Economic and Trade mid-sized founded by entrepreneurs Agreement (CETA) free trade agreement. with Polish roots (like the leader in the
74 The Warsaw Institute Review Polish Eagles in Canada: Opportunities in Doing Business with Poland
CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER JUSTIN TRUDEAU AND HIS SON XAVIER DISEMBARK © Adrian Wyld/abaca (PAP) A GOVERNMENT PLANE AS THEY ARRIVE IN WARSAW, POLAND - JULY 8, 2016.
gas nitriding and gas nitrocarburizing solutions NITREX METAL) – join the Poland is currently majors. The planned implementation of the EU-Canada CETA may additionally one of the most stable boost bilateral investments and trade. nations and fastest-
Why do business with Poland? growing economies in Canada and Poland are tied by NATO the European Union. and Canada’s economic involvement with the European Union which opens up a top-10 producer of copper globally. It many fresh economic opportunities (i.e. also possesses a recently built, high-tech free trade agreement CETA). Companies liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal. Over from both countries are active supporters 2000 Polish companies sell to Canada and of international space exploration efforts not just traditional export products such as (Canada is a partner country in the natural food, chocolate, cosmetics, alcohol, European Space Agency). Poland’s Space appliances, windows, doors and furniture, Research Centre, for instance, participated but also advanced components for leading in the construction of astrophysical global aircraft manufacturers, gas turbines, instruments for the HERSCHEL mission – luxury boats, yachts and ferries propelled the largest infrared telescope ever launched by low-carbon natural gas (LNG). with the support of NASA. Digital-age champions Poland is currently one of the most stable The success of Poland’s IT and nations and fastest-growing economies e-entertainment industry proves the in the European Union. It is a leading innovative potential of the country. producer of silver in the world and Comarch, a Polish global powerhouse
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specializing in ERP (enterprise resource the Canadian market for over 50 years, planning) business management systems Cyclone produces metal parts for aircraft and information security, has supplied manufacturing giants all over the world advanced IT services and software to such as Lockheed Martin, Saab, Embraer, Rogers, British Petroleum, Coca-Cola, Bombardier, Airbus and Boeing. It is a Unilever and many other top-notch clients. private company employing close to 600 highly skilled and trained workers in five Meanwhile, CD Projekt RED, Poland’s modern factories in Canada and Poland. number one computer and console game In 2016, Cyclone opened its first factory in producer (total worth exceeds one billion Poland. Thanks to the factory in Kraśnik,
Comparison of LNG delivery times from the planned Goldboro terminal (Orlen shares) and Qatar.
dollars), sold over 25 million copies over the next four years the region will worldwide of the role-playing series gain investments worth nearly 15 million “The Witcher”. The product, considered CAD and at least 100 new jobs in the a resounding success both commercially innovative aircraft sector. and critically, was even presented to the U.S. President. Another Polish video game Polish apples in Canada developer, Techland has invested in Canada Another interesting example of a Polish and has a team of programmers near success story in North America was the Vancouver. One of their products (Dying opening of the Canadian market for Light) debuted at number one in the U.S. Polish apples in 2014. A Russian embargo software sales chart (outselling famous left Poland, the leading EU producer of competitors such as Grand Theft Auto apples, with the enormous challenge of V and Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare). finding new markets for exporting its apples. Among them was The Land of the Parts “Made in Poland” in Maple Leaf. In 2016, a single company, almost every passenger Ewa Bis exported 400 tons of apples to aircraft in the world? Yes! Canada – a 10-fold increase in comparison Cyclone Manufacturing is another to 2015. Ewa-Bis Group was founded in good example demonstrating successful 1987 in Warsaw and sells fresh and frozen Polish-Canadian cooperation. Present on vegetables and fruits to the EU, Africa and
76 The Warsaw Institute Review Polish Eagles in Canada: Opportunities in Doing Business with Poland
Asia (including organic products). The planned introduction of CETA, according to the founder and chairman The import of LNG Marek Marzec, will almost certainly from the eastern coast increase its presence in Canada. of Canada may turn out Gems of the Polish to be beneficial for the shipbuilding industry One of Poland’s calling cards in Canada strengthening of energy is the shipyard Remontowa Shipbuilding security, not only for (Remontowa Holding S.A.). The company is one of the largest producers of ships Poland, but for Central propelled by LNG in the world, and and Eastern Europe. a pioneer in producing such ships in Europe. It specializes in the construction production amounts to 160 billion cubic of multi-purpose ships designed to support meters annually. In the long term, this can the offshore industry. In 2014 the shipyard be of strategic importance for the energy won the bid for the construction of three security of Europe and Poland. new ferries for British Columbia, and last year it got a contract for installing LNG Canada has the potential of becoming propulsion systems worth nearly of 150 one of the main global suppliers of LNG. million CAD. Meanwhile, in 2016 the Several LNG export terminals projects company delivered to Canada the “Avalon are underway on Canada’s eastern coast, Sea” – a ship supporting ExxonMobil including Goldboro LNG (the Pieridae offshore drilling platforms “Hibernia” and Energy – a contract with the German “Hebron” in Newfoundland and Labrador. E.ON), LNG Saguenay, Bear Head and Saint John/Canaport LNG. It is worth How CETA can benefit Canadian noting that nearly 11% of shares in and European companies Pieridae is owned by Polish oil giant Removing 99% of the duties (taxes) will be Orlen Upstream Canada (as a result of the most visible effect of the CETA which the acquisition of the Canadian company is planned to be implemented this year Kicking Horse in 2015). (provisionally). CETA – the first EU trade agreement with a G7 country – will benefit The import of LNG from the eastern coast Canadian and European companies, of Canada may turn out to be beneficial for allow for the mutual recognition of some the strengthening of energy security, not qualifications and create predictable only for Poland, but for Central and Eastern conditions for both EU and Canadian Europe. In the context of plans to form investors. By boosting trade, CETA will a North-South energy corridor in Europe, create jobs and enhance economic growth. it is not hard to imagine that Poland would not only receive LNG for its own needs, but An energetic partnership also distribute Canadian (or American) between allies – LNG? natural gas to some countries in the region, Canada and the U.S. are the only members acting as an energy hub. of the NATO Alliance possessing significant deposits of natural gas and crude Taking into consideration that “Warsaw” oil (thanks to unconventional deposits). is determined to improve its energy Canada’s oil deposits are estimated to security, and “Ottawa” strives to diversify be over 170 billion barrels. Natural gas its export of hydrocarbons (which now
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Poland, being one of the world’s pioneers Poland, being one of of crude oil production (third place behind the United States and Russia in 1909), and the world’s pioneers of a significant oil and gas player in Central crude oil production and Eastern Europe, can contribute to the success of ICORE. Among other (third place behind advantages of Poland include qualified the United States and specialists, an excellent educational and academic base in technical subjects and Russia in 1909), and a many thriving companies. significant oil and gas Atom from Canada, why not? player in Central and Another promising area of energy Eastern Europe, can cooperation between Poland and Canada may be the technology of building contribute to the success nuclear power plants and partnership of ICORE. in its worldwide distribution. CANDU (Canada Deuterium Uranium) is a end up almost entirely in the United recognized brand of nuclear technology States) there is a huge potential for worldwide and an important Canadian mutually beneficial cooperation. Both export product (including new projects countries have similar-sized populations in China and Argentina). The greater (30+ m), as well as extremely strong, not spread of CANDU technology across to say sometimes “difficult” neighbors the world might be supported by the (economically and/or militarily). These change in the energy policy of the similarities can draw the two countries current government of Canada. Ottawa closer together also in the field of energy. wants to use its success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions (one of the Poland and Canada, leaders benefits of generating electricity from in responsible hydrocarbon nuclear sources) as an instrument extraction of strengthening its position in the The International Centre of Regulatory international arena. Excellence (ICORE) appears another excellent chance for cooperation between If Poland chooses the Canadian solution, the two countries. The initiative, which it would be the second country in Europe, is supported by the Prime Minister of after Romania that uses this technology. Canada Justin Trudeau, has been initiated In the long term, the Polish-Canadian by the top oil and gas producing Canadian nuclear cooperation, providing its province – Alberta. The Centre focuses on economic viability, could enable Poland regulatory cooperation in the responsible to reap the benefits from the construction management of hydrocarbon resources. and maintenance of such plants in other On February 2, 2017, the Mexican countries. Secretary of Energy, Pedro Joaquín Coldwell, hosted the Minister of Natural Shale gas – a strategic Resources of Canada, Jim Carr and the unconventional resource Chairman of Alberta Energy Regulator, Finally, despite the slowdown in the Jim Ellis. During the meeting, Mexico development of shale and unconventional officially announced its decision to join deposits in Poland and Europe, in the long ICORE. term, the region can benefit from
78 The Warsaw Institute Review Polish Eagles in Canada: Opportunities in Doing Business with Poland the Canadian experience in the use of Ottawa last year, Poland’s President Andrzej modern techniques of hydraulic fracking, Duda remarked that, “trade between horizontal drilling and reducing the Poland and Canada over the last decade environmental impact in the exploration increased 2.5-fold, bilateral investments are of unconventional deposits: shale, tight growing, but it can be even better!” It is to gas and coalbed methane (CBM). There be hoped that the expectations mentioned is significant potential for collaboration above will materialize; however will both especially with the Alberta Energy sides of the Atlantic be able to take this Regulator. It regulates over 174,000 chance of a lifetime? operating wells and nearly half a million kilometers of pipelines (and 7 producing Tomasz Kijewski coal mines). March 31, 2017
Furthermore, progress in mining technology, as has been the case many times in history, can reduce costs and improve conditions for the extraction of unconventional gas, and lead to the return of Canadian companies for exploration in Poland in the future, and perhaps in other countries of the region.
Towards a golden age of a Euro-Atlantic partnership Let us not forget that the current Canadian “G7 class” economy has been built – among others – by generations of Polish immigrants. Today, trade and mutual investments are flourishing. The value of Polish-Canadian bilateral trade rose nearly 15% last year reaching a historic high: 2.5 billion CAD. The development of this economic cooperation between both countries would not be possible without the support of many of the 1 million or so Canadians of Polish origin.
However, the potential for Canadian-Polish trade and economic cooperation is much larger. The planned entry into force of the CETA agreement, an increased awareness of the importance of energy security in the Euro-Atlantic area and the unstable situation in Europe today (for instance, the © XINHUA/LIANG SEN/WTC/Photoshot (PAP) VANCOUVER, CANADA - OCTOBER 13, 2016. smoldering conflict between Russia and A RESIDENT WALKS UNDER RED LEAVES Ukraine) all favour doing business together. ON A STREET IN VANCOUVER, CANADA. STREETS IN VANCOUVER WERE BLANKETED WITH COLOURFUL LEAVES THAT TURNED THE During the ceremony commemorating the CITY INTO A GORGEOUS SIGHT AS THE FALL 1050th anniversary of Polish statehood in SEASON BEGAN.
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The Armed Independence Underground in Poland 1944-1956/1963 - genesis, aims, operations Filip Musiał, PhD In 1939, as a result of the invasions of Nazi Germany on September 1 and the Soviet Union on September 17, Poland lost control of all of its territory.
oland was initially divided Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej). Even in between four occupiers: Nazi September 1939, the month in which Germany, its supporter fascist the two aforementioned invasions took Slovakia, the Soviet Union place, underground structures began to Pand Lithuania (which soon lost its form in Poland. The most important of independence and became another these was the Service for Poland’s Victory Soviet republic). (Służba Zwycięstwu Polski, SZP), which served as the basis for the formation of Despite Poland’s defeat in the Defensive the Union of Armed Struggle (Związek War of 1939 and the occupation of Walki Zbrojnej, ZWZ) at the turn of the Polish territory by neighboring powers, year 1939 to 1940. Numerous independent Polish national spirit survived. A legal, military organizations formed in different government-in-exile was formed in regions of Poland; political parties that France, in accordance with the provisions went forced underground also created of the Constitution of the Republic their own military formations. In time, of Poland. After France also fell to this initially spontaneous process grew Nazi Germany, the Polish government organized within the framework of the moved to Great Britain. It consisted conspiratorial Polish Underground State of executive authorities: the president (Polskie Państwo Podziemne), also known and the government, supported by as the Polish Secret State. It encompassed a legislative surrogate, the National the entire underground administration: Council of Poland (Rada Narodowa the Government Delegation for Poland
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© Rafał Guz (soa) (PAP) WARSAW, POLAND - SEPTEMBER 27, 2015. FUNERAL CEREMONY FOR HEROES OF THE STRUGGLE FOR A FREE POLAND, VICTIMS OF COMMUNIST TERROR WHOSE REMAINS WERE DISCOVERED IN 2012-2014 IN THE MEADOW OF THE POWĄZKI MILITARY CEMETERY. CEREMONY UNVEILING THE PANTHEON-MAUSOLEUM ON THE MEADOW OF THE POWĄZKI MILITARY CEMETERY IN WARSAW AND THE BURIAL OF THE REMAINS OF COMMUNIST TERROR VICTIMS. THE FAMILIES OF THE VICTIMS PARTICIPATED IN THE CEREMONY.
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© Leszek Szymański (PAP) WARSAW, POLAND - OCTOBER 4, 2016. CAPTAIN WITOLD PILECKI’S CELL IN MOKOTÓW PRISON. THE MUSEUM OF THE CURSED SOLDIERS AND POLITICAL PRISONERS OF THE POLISH PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC (PRL) WILL BE BUILT ON THE TERRITORY OF THE MOKOTÓW PRISON BY RAKOWIECKA STREET IN WARSAW. IT WILL BE ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT PLACES COMMEMORATING THE HEROES OF THE ANTI-COMMUNIST MOVEMENT.
(Delegatura Rządu na Kraj) with regional structures down to the municipal level, a surrogate, underground parliament, Polish political and which was named the Council of National Unity (Rada Jedności Narodowej, RJN) intellectual elite, in 1944, as well as education, science became one of the and culture. An alternative state and society existed beyond the official reality symbols of the physical of occupation. One of the pillars of the extermination taking Polish Underground State was its armed branch, the Polish Underground Army place under German (Wojsko Polskie w konspiracji). In 1942, occupation. this became the Home Army (Armia Krajowa, AK), which combined the Union of Armed Struggle and practically all and crush the national spirit. Palmiry military organizations answering to the village in the Kampinos Forest, where Polish authorities in exile. The only major German forces murdered 2000 people formation remaining outside the Home between 1939 and 1941 as part of the Army was part of the armed structures of AB-Aktion aimed at the Polish political the nationalist right, which formed as the and intellectual elite, became one of the National Armed Forces (Narodowe Siły symbols of the physical extermination Zbrojne, NSZ). taking place under German occupation. Meanwhile, under Soviet occupation, Under German and Soviet Katyń, where the Soviets murdered occupation 22,000 Polish POWs and prisoners on From 1939 to 1941, the Germans and Stalin’s order, including officers of the Soviets sought to liquidate the Polish elite Polish Army, policemen, lawyers, doctors
82 The Warsaw Institute Review The Armed Independence Underground in Poland... and teachers, took on a similar symbolic of the major powers and the Polish meaning. authorities systematically lost influence over decisions made by the Western Allies Despite these repressions, which over concerning Poland. the course of World War II resulted in the death of 6 million Polish citizens In 1942, at the end of November and (including around 3 million Jews), the the start of December, the first wartime phenomenon of the Polish Underground meeting between the leaders of the United State endured. States, Great Britain and the USSR took place. In Tehran, Iran, Franklin Delano Its situation changed in June 1941 at Roosevelt, Winston Churchill and Joseph the time of Nazi Germany’s attack Stalin, made the first decisions about, on the USSR. The Soviets, hoping for among other matters, the fate of post-war support from the Allies, recognized the Poland, without informing the Polish Government of the Republic of Poland in government-in-exile. The Soviet dictator exile (Rząd Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej na sought to gain the agreement of Roosevelt Uchodźstwie) and established diplomatic and Churchill to incorporate the Polish ties with it. One after-consequence of this territory taken over by the Red Army in was the formation of General Władysław September 1939 into the USSR (which Anders’ Army in the USSR, recruited represented nearly half of Poland’s pre-war from thousands of Poles sent away after territory). He succeeded. The combined September 1939, deep into the Soviet plan for Poland outlined “that the focus Union and sentenced to heavy labor of the Polish state and nation ought to in prison camps. Stalin’s inclination be located between the so-called Curzon to recognize the Polish authorities Line and the line of the Odra River, with vanished after the Soviet victory at inclusion into Poland of East Prussia and Stalingrad, which swung the situation the province of Opole. However, the final on the eastern front in his favor. Having determination of the borders shall require destroyed significant German forces in detailed studies and, in some points, the Stalingrad “cauldron”, the Soviets possible resettlement of the population.” went on a counteroffensive which the Germans were unable to stop. The nearing of the Red Army to Poland’s pre-war The combined plan for border rendered contact with the Polish Government a distraction for Stalin. He Poland outlined “that had returned to the idea of annexing part the focus of the Polish of pre-war Poland and making the rest dependent on the Soviet Union. Therefore, state and nation ought he began to search for a reason to sever to be located between diplomatic relations with Poland. This reason eventually turned out to be the the so-called Curzon discovery of the Katyń graves by the Line and the line of Germans. The request by the government- the Odra River, with -in-exile to investigate the massacre of Polish officers served as Stalin’s pretext inclusion into Poland to accuse the Polish Government of of East Prussia and the collaboration with the Nazis and to cut off diplomatic relations. In spring 1943, province of Opole. Poland became a pawn on the chessboard
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By 1941, Stalin had already selected a group of Polish communists in the USSR, By 1941, Stalin had whose task was to recreate the Communist already selected a group Party in Poland, this time under the name of the Polish Workers’ Party (Polska Partia of Polish communists Robotnicza, PPR). They were transported in the USSR, whose into occupied Poland to build the party as a tool of Soviet policy. In Moscow in task was to recreate the early 1943, the Union of Polish Patriots Communist Party in (Związek Patriotów Polskich, ZPP) was created on Stalin’s initiative, intended Poland, this time under to be Poland’s political representation. the name of the Polish In the spring, he started building a new army commanded by Zygmunt Berling, Workers’ Party (Polska a deserter from the Polish Army. Partia Robotnicza, Soviet operations in the PPR). Eastern Borderlands and west These decisions were important insofar of the Bug River as a month after the end of the Tehran Given the situation on the eastern front Conference, the Red Army crossed from 1943 onward, the Home Army Poland’s pre-war border. The Polish leadership prepared itself for the eventual Government, unaware of the decisions takeover of Poland by the Red Army, made in Tehran, treated these lands as and not the Western Allies. The idea of a part of the Republic of Poland, but the general, national uprising was abandoned Soviets treated them as their own. The in favor of Operation Tempest (Akcja consequences of this tense situation “Burza”), a region-based uprising. Home were exceptionally serious for the Army units, often fighting arm-in-arm representatives of the civil and military with Red Army soldiers, were to attack branches of the Polish Underground State. the retreating Germans and welcome the Soviets in liberated cities as hosts. Military This intensified as Stalin had already cooperation thus led underground Polish begun his plan of subjugating Polish forces to reveal their identities, whereas territory as 1942 dawned. One of the pro-Polish manifestations in cities and tools to realize that aim were the pre- towns led the Soviets to the civilian war communists who found refuge in government delegates. The most important territories occupied by the Soviets after operations included the liberation of the war had broken out. They came from Lviv (Lwów) and Vilnius (Wilno) in different backgrounds, but those chosen concert with the Soviets. However, by Stalin had proven themselves in after the military operations ended, the servility to the Kremlin. Some of them, Polish military leadership and civilian such as Bolesław Bierut or Michał Rola- authorities were arrested by the Soviets -Żymierski, had even cooperated with and soldiers were imprisoned. They were Soviet intelligence before the war. Others, often given a choice: prison, exile deep in such as Władysław Gomułka, were alumni the USSR, or join the so-called “Berling of the International Lenin School, run in Army” alongside the Soviets. Anti-Polish Moscow by the Communist International, operations returned to the territories which in the interwar period sought to end occupied by the Red Army, similar to Poland’s hard-won independence. those of the first occupation (1939–1941) -
84 The Warsaw Institute Review The Armed Independence Underground in Poland... © Leszek Szymański (PAP) WARSAW, POLAND - OCTOBER 4, 2016. CORRIDOR LEADING TO THE FORMER “DEATH CELL” IN BLOCK D OF THE MOKOTÓW PRISON.
with a Soviet administration replacing the had signed a secret protocol allowing the German one. Red Army and the Soviet secret police, the NKVD, to decide the fate of Poles in In summer 1944, the Commander-in- the areas near the front. The Committee Chief of the Home Army, General Tadeusz also relinquished Poland’s claim to the “Bór” Komorowski concluded: The Eastern Borderlands (Kresy), recognizing attitude of the Soviets towards the Home the Curzon Line as Poland’s eastern Army on the territories captured so far border. The creation and development of a […] is negative. The NKVD treacherously communist administration dependent on arrests all commanders and officers. Units the Kremlin could only be successful after are disarmed and required to join Berling’s eliminating the Polish Underground State. army […]. An important element of this plan was to The policy carried out by the Soviets halt the Red Army offensive at the Vistula in the Eastern Borderlands, which were River, at the beginning of the uprising in incorporated into the USSR, was to Warsaw on August 1, 1944. This allowed a large extent continued in other areas the Germans to concentrate their forces of occupied Poland. on crushing the Warsaw Uprising, which finally succeeded in October, after 63 When Red Army soldiers crossed the days of heavy fighting. At the same time, Bug River in July 1944, they continued during the Uprising, the Soviets were operations aimed at destroying the ruthlessly liquidating underground units military and civilian structures of the en route to the capital city; only the fall legal Polish authorities. In Moscow, on of the Uprising, in which nearly 40,000 July 21, 1944, Stalin established the Polish Home Army soldiers were fighting, Committee of National Liberation (Polski guaranteed the realization of the political Komitet Wyzwolenia Narodowego, plan aimed at turning Poland into PKWN), which would become the a Soviet satellite state. communist government. The Committee was transported into liberated Poland on Until the autumn of 1945, Soviet July 27. A day earlier, its representatives troops played an important role in the
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fight against the Polish independence final order, he addressed his soldiers and underground. Without Soviet relieved them of their oath: “Home Army involvement, which broke the back of Soldiers! I am giving you the final order. the Polish Underground State, Polish Conduct your further work in the spirit communists would not have been able of regaining Poland’s independence and to assume power in Poland. safeguarding the Polish people from annihilation. Try to act as guides for The end of Operation Tempest, for the nation and producers of Poland’s which the final and dramatic stage independence. In this activity, each of you was the Warsaw Uprising, plunged must be his own leader.”
the Home Army into chaos. General After the dissolution of the Home Army, Leopold Okulicki “Niedzwiadek”, the task of continuing the struggle was the last Commander-in-Chief of the taken over by the organization “NIE” Home Army, sought to gain control (“No”), also short for “independence” over the organization, which had been (“niepodległość”). It was a cadre shattered by the defeat of the Uprising organization created in the autumn of and whose units were torn between 1943, which was meant to be capable territory occupied by the Germans and of long-term, underground operations the Soviets. However, due to increasing in case of Soviet occupation. It failed to Soviet repressions and recognizing that develop however and was disbanded when, Operation Tempest had blown the cover in March 1945, both its leader, General of the underground army, he disbanded August Emil Fieldorf “Nil”, and the head the Home Army in January 1945. In his of the armed forces in the country, General
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Leopold Okulicki “Niedźwiadek”, were arrested by the Soviets, independent of It was replaced by the one another. The remaining members concluded that the organization had been Armed Forces Delegation compromised and it was dissolved by the for Poland (Delegatura Commander-in-Chief of the Polish Armed Forces, General Władysław Anders, at Sił Zbrojnych na Kraj, their request. It was replaced by the Armed DSZ), which was the last Forces Delegation for Poland (Delegatura Sił Zbrojnych na Kraj, DSZ), which was variant of the military the last variant of the military branch of branch of the Polish the Polish Underground State. Its objective was to sustain the spirit of resistance, but Underground State. there was an internal conflict between organization was different from that of its its activities and founding idea. The predecessors. Although it recruited from commander of the Delegation, Colonel the Home Army, its founders believed that Jan Rzepecki “Ożóg” believed that armed armed struggle was not the best way to resistance had lost its purpose. He saw fight for independence. The declaration no chance to defeat the communists, and of the world powers made during the their protectors, the Soviets, through open Yalta Conference, which provided for free combat. He sought instead to “empty the elections in Poland, became their reference forests”, by withdrawing soldiers from point. It was assumed that the communists conspiratorial activities and helping had no chance of winning. WiN’s goal was them to legalize their existence. This to keep up the spirit of social resistance was practically impossible, however, until the election, to make them truly fair as repressions aimed at underground and free, and to support the Polish People’s soldiers and functionaries who revealed Party (Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe, PSL) themselves led more and more people in the voting, as it was the only credible to return to the forest. The DSZ lasted opposition party. WiN was supposed to be merely a few months, as the creation of a civic organization of a political character. the Provisional Government of National However, the reality of the totalitarian Unity (Tymczasowy Rząd Jedności system that was being created in Poland Narodowej, TRJN), led the underground verified these assumptions. The theoretical in the country to end the phase of active concept was only implemented in practice resistance and in the summer of 1945, in the Lesser Poland and Silesia regions, the Polish Secret State, namely the where the number of partisan units, which Government Delegation for Poland (and followed the orders of WiN, was kept its territorial agencies), the surrogate at a minimum. The remaining regions underground parliament Council of of Poland, especially along the eastern National Unity, as well as the DSZ, were border, were full of resistance units, which dissolved. This, however, did not mean the often caused severe difficulties for the end of the resistance. communist authorities.
Leaders of the Home Army, continuing the WiN was the largest underground fight in the ranks of “NIE” and the DSZ, organization in post-war Poland, it formed the Freedom and Independence is estimated that at its peak in 1946 it Association (Zrzeszenie Wolność i had about 30,000 sworn members, of Niezawisłość, WiN) in early September which 2,000 fought in forest units. The 1945. The fundamental idea of this organization was finally eliminated at the
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subordinated itself to the NZW. Some territorial structures of the organization The second pillar of survived until the early 1950s, but the NZW ceased to exist as a nationwide nationwide resistance, organization in early 1947. alongside WiN, was the nationalist underground. Apart from nationwide organizations, there were different regional and local end of 1947, though a wave of arrests earlier organizations created all over the that year had already limited its area of country, which were not included in operations to secluded “islands” in southern post-Home Army or national structures. Poland. The dramatic epilogue of WiN’s There was a great variety of resistance activities was a counterintelligence and initiatives, among which it is possible counter-espionage operation codenamed to differentiate two trends: the post- “Cezary”, organized by the Ministry of -Home Army underground and the Public Security of Poland, the communist so-called unaffiliated organizations. state police. The operation involved The former, based on regional or local the creation of a “5th WiN Military organizational structures of the Home Command” managed by functionaries of Army and Polish Peasants’ Battalions the secret police and their agents. Parts of (Bataliony Chłopskie, BCh), were usually the operation focused on domestic issues, those who had lost organizational but its main goal was to thwart the activities contact with central command after the of WiN’s Foreign Delegation (Delegatura dissolution of the Home Army in 1945. Zagraniczna WiN), and through it the They continued the fight on a regional British and US intelligence services. It was scale. Among them were organizations conducted from 1948 to 1952. such as the Independent Volunteer Group (Wielkopolska Samodzielna The second pillar of nationwide resistance, Grupa Ochotnicza “Warta”), operating alongside WiN, was the nationalist in the Greater Poland region. The underground. Originally, it existed as Extraterritorial Vilnius Home Army two separate organizations: the National Military District (Eksterytorialny Okręg Armed Forces, (Narodowe Siły Zbrojne, Wileński AK), operating in Pomerania, NSZ) and National Military Union whose Home Army 5th Wilno Brigade (Narodowe Zjednoczenie Wojskowe, fought in the Tuchola Forest. In addition, NZW). The NSZ mostly included armed the Extraterritorial Lviv Home Army formations that did not unify with the Military District (Eksterytorialny Okręg Home Army during the war. The NZW, Lwowski AK), which was recreated on the other hand, included mostly units in Lower Silesia after the Poles forced of the Narodowa Organizacja Wojskowa from the Eastern Borderlands, which (National Military Organization, NOW), had been incorporated into the USSR, which had merged with the Home Army. were resettled there. The Citizens’ Home Hence, the organization established at Army (Armia Krajowa Obywatelska, the turn of 1944 and 1945 flourished only AKO), operating in the area of Białystok, after the Polish underground army had also came from this mold, and was later been disbanded and it was possible to subordinated to WiN. In many locations remove the NOW units from its ranks. in Poland, independently of one another, Both branches of the nationalist armed organizations which were often called the underground joined forces toward the Home Army Resistance Movement (Ruch end of 1946 and into 1947 when the NSZ Oporu Armii Krajowej) were created,
88 The Warsaw Institute Review The Armed Independence Underground in Poland... along with other units who drew in former Home Army personnel. The other current of regional, conspiratorial activity, came In the summer of 1945, from formations created from scratch, without any structural connections to the it was obvious that the wartime underground. The largest of such continuation of armed organizations were the Conspiratorial resistance would lead Polish Army (Konspiracyjne Wojsko Polskie, KWP), operating in Łódź and to enormous casualties the Świętokrzyskie Mountains area, a without any real success. partisan unit, “Błyskawica” (Lighting bolt), operating mostly in the Podhale region, and the Independent Operational was also involved in extensive intelligence Batallion (Samodzielny Batalion activities; on the one hand it infiltrated the Operacyjny “Zuch”), operating in the administration and repressive apparatus Bieszczady Mountains. in order to ensure its own survival, while The post-war underground did not envision on the other it was trying to identify the an active, armed resistance. Faced with mechanisms governing the new system, Soviet operations, including a mass-scale its tactics and courses of action. Many pacification operation in the Augustów of those findings were then handed Forest region in the summer of 1945, over to intelligence services in the free it was obvious that the continuation of world. After the Yalta Conference, the armed resistance would lead to enormous election became the reference point for casualties without any real success. If all resistance organizations fighting for any skirmishes and partisan battles took independence. Therefore, propaganda place, they were the result of roundups actions were organized in order to organized by the communist authorities or sustain the social conviction that the of self-defense actions of the underground. communist government was weak and Among the latter, there are examples temporary. Finally, in order to provide of liberating jails, prisons and camps in funds for military and political activities, order to release anticommunist fighters expropriation actions were conducted. As as well as eliminating and disarming the in the case of activities carried out during Civic Militia (Milicja Obywatelska, MO) the war, it was assumed that actions against and secret police stations. Apart from the the occupier, in this case the communist obvious goal of providing the underground administration, institutions and their with weapons, this was meant to limit representatives, were acceptable. Hence, the activity of the communist repression state banks or state-owned cooperatives apparatus in the field and to increase the were raided and robbed, and sometimes safety of the conspiratorial networks. individual representatives of the regime Disciplinary actions served the purpose of would be forced to make a “contribution”. paralyzing the activities of the communist Looking at the phenomenon of the authorities; they were aimed at particularly underground from a different perspective, active members of the Communist Party it is possible to point out two characteristic or administration, as well as officers of trends. The first involves formations and the repressive apparatus and persons soldiers who fought, without any break, considered to be their collaborators. Apart since they were recruited to the ranks of from warnings or floggings, there were the Home Army, until they died or were also operations aimed at the physical arrested by the security services. The other elimination of targets. The underground involved a response to repressions by the
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the falsification of the results of the referendum of June 1946 and the The first involves election of January 1947, changed the formations and soldiers situation. One must not forget about the importance of pacification operations who fought, without any conducted in the winter of 1946/1947, break, since they were aimed at partisan headquarters. As usual in the case of partisan actions, soldiers recruited to the ranks of were demobilized for the winter, as it the Home Army, until was not possible to feed and hide them; only staff officers and small guarding they died or were arrested detachments remained in the forests and by the security services. mountains. The manhunts and raids resulted in the deaths or arrests of many Soviet, and later Polish, security forces. commanders of single units and battle It included soldiers of the underground groups. The rigged election results, which who attempted to leave during amnesties were tacitly accepted by the free world, announced by the communist authorities, and the announcement of the second but were forced to return to the amnesty, caused many demobilized underground because of the arrests of their anticommunist fighters to come out friends, who had also come out of hiding, of hiding, as they had nowhere left to and who did not believe they could live a go. It is estimated that by the time the “legal life”. At the same time, it is worth Amnesty of 1947 came to an end, there noting the dynamically changing situation were slightly more than 1,800 partisans of the armed resistance. It is estimated continuing the armed struggle. However, that after the disbanding of the Home there were no longer any nationwide Army, there were still more than 17,000 structures, and the ranks of units, which soldiers fighting in the forests. Combined were hunted, ambushed and infiltrated with a network of civilians, agents and by the regime, were constantly thinning. informants, the number of people involved With time, they would transform into in, or assisting, the underground may have groups focused on survival, determined totalled several hundred thousand. Looking to last as long as possible, rather than at the support for the legally operating engage in an ideological fight. In the opposition parties, such as the PSL of 1950s, single fighters managed to remain Stanisław Mikołajczyk or Labor Party in hiding. It is estimated that in the early (Stronnictwo Pracy) of Karol Popiel, and 1950s, there were no more than 400 the scale of unorganized social resistance, active underground soldiers remaining it is fair to say that the communist regime in post-Yalta Poland. Only a minority of was rejected overall in the first years of the them fought in a few organized units, People’s Republic of Poland. As a result of as the majority was trying to hide from this attitude in society between 1945 and being arrested, unable to commit to any 1946, the communists’ domain was limited anti-regime actions. The last partisan to major urban centers. Rural Poland, in hiding, Józef Franczak “Laluś”, died especially in the eastern and southern fighting the communist repressive parts of the country, were controlled by the apparatus on October 21, 1963. underground.
Only ongoing repressions and the Filip Musiał breakdown of the social mood following December 1, 2016
90 The Warsaw Institute Review The Warsaw Uprising Museum Tymoteusz Pruchnik Patriotism, courage, honor, freedom, fidelity, integrity, friendship…
n its 12 years of operation, the for over half a century, awaiting worthy Warsaw Uprising Museum has commemoration in independent Poland. organized hundreds of concerts, lectures and workshops. It also After the war, for close to 50 years, the Iorganizes annual events accompanying the communist authorities tried to erase the anniversary of the Warsaw Uprising. These memory of the Warsaw Uprising as the activities serve as tribute to the insurgents subject was taboo and forbidden in the - the people to whom it owes its existence. public discourse. The one version of events accepted by the communist authorities Forbidden Uprising 1944 was a premeditated falsification served to The Warsaw Uprising erupted on August citizens. Soldiers and officers of the Home 1, 1944 - the fifth year of the lengthy Army (AK), particularly in the first years German occupation. Not only was it a after the war, were the victims of heavy fight for independence, but an express repressions, which for many ended in rejection of the violence of the occupation death. The thaw of 1956 brought a certain and the outcry of thousands of Varsovians reprieve, but the official line of the Polish wanting to put an end to the drawn-out United Worker’s Party (PZPR) maintained war. Most of all, the insurgents joining an unambiguously negative appraisal the battle wanted to defend against the of the Uprising and its leaders. The first destruction of the values dearest to human changes appeared during the “Solidarity” life: patriotism, courage, honor, freedom, period. In 1981 the Social Committee for fidelity, integrity and friendship. The the Construction of the Warsaw Uprising Warsaw Uprising ended after 63 days Museum was formed. At the same time, of heroic battle. Its idea has survived artifacts from the Uprising began to be
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© Tomasz Gzell (PAP) WARSAW, POLAND - JULY 29, 2007. COMMEMORATION OF THE 63RD ANNIVERSARY OF THE OUTBREAK OF THE WARSAW UPRISING IN FREEDOM PARK AT THE WARSAW UPRISING MUSEUM. PRESIDENT LECH KACZYŃSKI (RIGHT) AFTER THE CEREMONY.
92 The Warsaw Institute Review The Warsaw Uprising Museum collected and an effort to find a building to house the museum got underway. The newly-elected Mayor Creating the Warsaw Uprising of Warsaw, Professor Museum Only the fall of the regime in 1989 Lech Kaczyński, decided allowed for the full “rehabilitation” of the insurgents. The fiftieth anniversary on the construction of the commemoration of the Warsaw Uprising museum for the sixtieth – the first in independent Poland – was especially important. The cornerstone to anniversary of the the construction of the museum was laid outbreak of the Uprising. in 1994 in the building that once housed the insurgent redoubt by Bielańska Street the Twentieth Century, and it was also (the former headquarters of the National the beginning. It was the beginning of a Bank of Poland); however, the Warsaw battle which through the second half of the Uprising Museum project did not really 1940s, 1956, 1966, 1968, 1970, 1976, led to gain momentum until 2002. The newly- Solidarity.” Later in the speech, he said that elected Mayor of Warsaw, Professor Lech the Warsaw Uprising Museum is a “tribute Kaczyński, decided on the construction of paid to all of the insurgents, leaders, the museum for the sixtieth anniversary soldiers and civilians, who supported the of the outbreak of the Uprising. The site Uprising. It’s a tribute to the very decision chosen would be the old trolley power to fight and is a tribute to how they fought, station in Warsaw’s Wola district. The that they were probably the best soldiers in operation was managed by the Legal the thousand-year history of our nation, Representative for the Construction for their unparalleled heroism in battle as of the Warsaw Uprising Museum, and well as their military craft, their resistance, later its director, Jan Ołdakowski. The their toughness… It’s a tribute to all of architectural design contest for the newly- those who died in battle in 1944 and in forming museum was won by Kraków later years, for all of those who passed architect Wojciech Obtułowicz, while the away in the sixty years since and for those exposition design contest was won by a who are with us today.” team of architects including Mirosław Nizio, Jarosław Kłaput and Dariusz Over the course of more than 12 years, the Kunowski. museum has become a dynamic cultural institution, active both culturally and The museum was opened in August socially, shaping the politics of memory 2004 - on the sixtieth anniversary of the and marking trends in education. By the outbreak of the Warsaw Uprising. It served end of 2016, over six million visitors had as a visible tribute from the residents visited the museum’s exhibition, which of Warsaw to everyone who fought and contains close to 30,000 items in its died in battle for the capital and for a free collection. Poland. Insurgent Warsaw At the opening of the museum on July The guiding idea of the exhibition was to 31, 2004, the Mayor of Warsaw, Lech depict the realities of insurgent Warsaw Kaczyński said: “The Warsaw Uprising on many levels, with the aid of diverse was the crowning effort of Polish media: photographs, films, information independence actions in the first half of panels and modern multimedia solutions.
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The viewer is guided along the entire path of the exhibition by a skillfully constructed narrative, which aims to recreate the atmosphere in Warsaw during the Uprising. Interactivity with visitors is essential, so that they become active participants in the tour. This way, even after leaving the museum, the images left in their memory lead them to reflect on what they saw.
In the museum’s exhibition, the way that history is presented to youth is communicated in a particularly appealing way, through the application of a modern narrative with an emphasis on interactivity through sound effects, lights and scenographic elements.
The permanent exhibition is located on three floors totaling 3,000 square meters. It includes around 800 exhibit items, 1,500 photographs, and five hours of film © Bartłomiej Zborowski (PAP) material and sound recordings. Visitors are led through successive stages of the Uprising until the moment the insurgents come from the Oral History Archive of the abandon Warsaw and then their later fate. Museum. The museum building includes an observation tower from which you can admire a panorama view of Warsaw, and the basement which includes a replica of The guiding idea of the the sewers used by insurgents during the exhibition was to depict Uprising. the realities of insurgent An exceptional atmosphere dominates the museum, which is created by around Warsaw on many levels 800 original artifacts from the Uprising; photographs, films and other multimedia. The second part of the permanent Short, catchy stories sharing the authentic, exhibition is in Hall B, home to a full- personal experiences of Insurgents are scale reproduction of an American B-24 considered the best way to pass on the Liberator bomber. A sizable part of the spirit of those events. exhibition is dedicated to Germany and its allies, where their operations in Warsaw Multimedia Museum are depicted based on official documents From its inception, the Warsaw Uprising from the period as well as private Museum emphasized innovative museum reminiscences. solutions. The first large-scale project was the creation of the Virtual Warsaw Uprising In Hall B you can also watch recordings Museum - an online platform which made of witness accounts of the Uprising, which a virtual visit around the museum possible.
94 The Warsaw Institute Review The Warsaw Uprising Museum
WARSAW, POLAND - JULY 31, 2007. PRESIDENT LECH KACZYŃSKI DURING THE SOLEMN APPEAL OF THE FALLEN, DURING THE COMMEMORATION OF THE 63RD ANNIVERSARY OF THE WARSAW UPRISING.
After the Virtual Museum, successive multimedia projects came into being. In 2010 the film City of Ruins (Miasto Ruin) The museum is the premiered - a digital 3-D reconstruction main organizer of the of the flight of a Liberator over Warsaw in the spring of 1945. For the seventieth anniversary events anniversary of the Uprising, the museum made the film Warsaw Uprising - the commemorating the first non-fiction war drama in the world Warsaw Uprising, which assembled entirely from original insurgent newsreels. The film was nominated for an take place every year, Oscar. from the end of July until Besides the aforementioned projects, October 2. the museum created several mobile applications, such as City’s Memory the Warsaw Uprising, which take place (Pamięć Miasta) and Architekturki - every year, from the end of July until guidebooks to Warsaw’s memorials and October 2. Many events take place in architecture as well as a multimedia this time frame: concerts as part of e-book for children titled Asiunia. the series “We Remember ’44” (so far performers have included Lao Che, We Remember ’44 Apocalyptica, Voo Voo and Luxtorpeda), The museum is the main organizer of location-based games like “Your Photo the anniversary events commemorating from the Uprising”, Insurgent Critical
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© Marcin Obara (PAP) WARSAW - AUGUST 8, 2016. ON AUGUST 6, THE TENTH UPRISING CRITICAL MASS CYCLED THROUGH THE STREETS OF SOUTHERN DOWNTOWN OF WARSAW, FOLLOWING THE JAN NOWAK- -JEZIORAŃSKI TRAIL. THE BIKERS SET OFF FROM THE WARSAW RISING MUSEUM AND CYCLED ALONG A 17 KM ROUTE, VISITING PLACES CONNECTED WITH THE PATRON OF THE EVENT. IN THIS WAY, WARSAW CRITICAL MASS COMMEMORATED JAN NOWAK-JEZIORAŃSKI, THE LEGENDARY COURIER FROM WARSAW.
institution. Several interesting events Furthermore, the have been initiated, such as the Jan Rodowicz “Anoda” Award, presented museum organizes to the “Insurgent in peacetime” for outdoor exhibits in exceptional acts and heroic attitudes. Every year since 2006, the “Innocent Poland and abroad. Sorcerers” festival also takes place, which helps rediscover the atmosphere of pre- Mass (bike ride) or popular sing-along -war Warsaw through concerts, exhibits, concerts like “Not-Forbidden Songs” at lectures and workshops. Piłsudski Square. Besides this, the annual commemorations are accompanied by Furthermore, the museum organizes various patriotic events, of which one outdoor exhibits in Poland and abroad. of the more important is the meeting In 2014, along with the Topography between insurgents and the President of of Terror Foundation, an exhibit was the Republic of Poland and the Mayor of opened in Berlin, presenting the history Warsaw, which takes place in Freedom of the Warsaw Uprising. In 2015, the Park on the museum grounds. museum honored the memory of the civilian victims, creating an exhibit The Warsaw Uprising Museum is full in Warsaw Insurgent’s Park in the of life year-round as an active cultural Wola district, presenting nearly 60,000
96 The Warsaw Institute Review The Warsaw Uprising Museum names of those murdered or who went missing during the Uprising. The exhibit continued in 2016 and was augmented The names of over 11,000 with an online application, thanks to soldiers, liaison officers which anyone can update the personal data of their family members who were and nurses killed in the lost, killed or murdered during the Warsaw Uprising are Uprising. visible on the Wall of One of the main pillars of the museum is its academic and educational activity. Memory on the grounds The Education Department offers a rich of the museum. list of museum classes, in which over 300,000 students have thus far taken part. The History Department develops ideas and values which were being research programs for the museum, defended and fought for by the Warsaw which include research projects in insurgents. The youth representatives Poland and abroad tied to the history of declared that they would build a world World War II. in which freedom, loyalty, courage, honor, integrity, friendship, tolerance, The Archives Department processes help to the weak and conscientiousness, and catalogues the library and archival would have a permanent presence. collections, stores and makes them accessible and conducts research We also remember the fallen heroes related to the Warsaw Uprising in of the Warsaw Uprising. The names of other institutions. The Oral History over 11,000 soldiers, liaison officers and Department is a separate entity nurses killed in the Warsaw Uprising are which conducts and stores interviews visible on the Wall of Memory on the with witnesses, most of whom were grounds of the museum. The museum insurgents and civilians. So far close to tries to regularly revitalize places 4,000 interviews have been recorded and of memory and refurbish forgotten preserved. insurgents’ graves.
The most important goal of the museum The Warsaw Uprising Museum came into is to preserve the memory of the Warsaw existence at the initiative of President Uprising. The Insurgent’s Room and the Lech Kaczyński and initiated the process Volunteer Department, which takes care which allowed for the construction of of contacts with former insurgents, have the Museum of the History of Polish existed from the beginning. Every year Jews, Museum of the Cursed Soldiers in hundreds of invitations for the museum’s Ostrołęka, and many more. Thanks to the anniversary events are sent to insurgents initiatives started by the President and around the world. the museum, Polish youth have taken a greater interest in history, tradition and On the occasion of the seventieth patriotism. Moreover, rightful respect has anniversary of the outbreak of the been restored to the insurgents, civilians, Warsaw Uprising, the insurgents cursed soldiers and other national heroes. passed on the so-called “Generational Baton” to representatives of the younger Tymoteusz Pruchnik generation, which symbolizes the January 31, 2017
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Missing the future Roch Baranowski Europe risks falling behind in developing the disruptive technologies of the future - not only behind the United States, but increasingly behind China and other Asian countries.
mong the top-20 largest Union’s integrity has been shaken internet companies in the by Brexit and on a broader level, the world, there are already cultural authority of Brussel’s liberal more Asian than European elites is increasingly being challenged Acompanies. And it is increasingly these by a “populist”s counterculture. All of companies which – fueled by the cash this has forced European leaders to rush collected by first generation, e-commerce breathlessly from fighting one fire to the applications – drive the development next. of next generation technologies. If Europeans do not want to wake up left As if all these short-term challenges behind in a decade or two, with their were not enough, Europe now risks not technologies and business models noticing its biggest challenge yet, which obsolete and their societies fighting could render it structurally incapable of for ever-smaller scraps of wealth competing on equal terms with North accumulated by previous generations, America and Asia on the economic they need to find a way to catch up in battlefields of the future. next generation technologies. Over the last two decades of the internet Recent years have been hard for Europe revolution, for a variety of reasons, – the Eurozone’s common currency is Europe has failed to produce relevant, in permanent crisis, mass immigration domestic, internet-based business has spiraled out of control, the European champions, instead becoming a target
98 The Warsaw Institute Review Missing The Future
© Stephanie Lecocq/EPA (PAP) EUROPEAN COMMISSIONER FOR A DIGITAL SINGLE MARKET, ANDRUS ANSIP (L) AND EUROPEAN COMMISSIONER FOR ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL AFFAIRS, PIERRE MOSCOVICI (R) HOLD A PRESS CONFERENCE ON NEW VAT RULES FOR E-COMMERCE AT THE EU COMMISSION HEADQUARTERS IN BRUSSELS, BELGIUM - DECEMBER 1, 2016.
market for American technology and e-commerce companies. Over the last two
Among the key success factors for decades of the internet internet companies, in particular revolution, for a variety e-commerce and social networks, is being able to quickly build up a critical mass of reasons, Europe has of users in a target group and then being failed to produce relevant, able to scale the model to additional target groups. domestic, internet-based business champions, I. instead becoming While the majority of social networking, e-commerce and digital marketing a target market for concepts were developed in the U.S., American technology and local European players were typically quick to copy and adapt the concepts e-commerce companies. to their particular national markets, resulting in many European eBay, as long as the American originals were Amazon and Facebook clones, developed busy elsewhere. When Google, Amazon, in the 2000s. Instead of Facebook, eBay and Facebook directed their eyes there was the German Facebook clone towards European markets and started studiVZ and the Polish LinkedIn clone entering them, the local players were GoldenLine. However, most of these heavily disadvantaged against them – regional players were able to grow only having a smaller domestic market base,
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person to use a Polish social network or vice versa. There is no common European There is no common market for local identity and culture. The European market only common denominator is the English language and American popular culture. for local identity and And therefore Facebook, Twitter, and the culture. The only like, are a natural fit. common denominator This phenomenon is similar to the is the English language European movie industry. Economically, production budgets in the film industry and American popular are directly correlated with the size of culture. the addressable market. The 80 million Germans, 35 million Poles and the 10 often a non-English original language million Hungarians, will never be enough and user community, and less access to to justify similar budgets as 320 million growth capital, leaving them with too few Americans and the additional billions resources to defend their market leader associated with the English language and positions. With a few notable exceptions, American culture. for example the Swedish music streaming service Spotify – European players had Therefore, the European film industry to let themselves be taken over by their has become marginalized and dominated American big brothers or risk slowly by Hollywood and is currently only in bleeding user numbers into irrelevance. existence due to state subsidies. Today, Today, the European internet is firmly having a domestic film industry is a ruled by the American triumvirate of luxury that European societies choose Google, Amazon and Facebook, with to afford themselves, rather than a self- the sharing economy dominated by the -sustained driver of economic growth. American Airbnb, Uber and others. II. In the short term, this seemed like a So maybe the same applies to web beneficial, win-win situation for both pluralize or social networks? Perhaps all sides of the Atlantic, the result of of this isn’t a problem? Google and Uber globalization and integrated markets. work just fine in Europe, so what does it America gives Europe Facebook and matter where their headquarters are? Twitter, while Europe gives America German cars and French wine, so what The problem is that it is increasingly the could be wrong with that? Also, this type cash accumulation from web searches of development might be structurally and advertising, social networks and unavoidable. In industries where scale e-commerce applications that fuels matters above all, the fragmented cultural the development of next generation landscape of Europe just doesn’t seem technologies such as artificial intelligence, fit with the creation of large internet virtual and augmented reality, zero- players. If service offers are unique -emission and autonomous mobility, and customized to the specific cultural robotics and more. While old economic needs of a European country, they are giants such as Siemens and Daimler automatically confined to this particular struggle to quickly change course, it is market – be it German, French, Polish or the dynamic players in Silicon Valley Hungarian. It is very unlikely for a French who push forward into new terrain. The
100 The Warsaw Institute Review Missing The Future mountains of cash collected by Google from its basic search and advertising services give the company the resources, China has developed their stamina and appeal to pioneer artificial own players, which are intelligence, robotics and self-driving cars. For example, Google has invested now catching up to and $400 million in the artificial intelligence sometimes overtaking the company DeepMind, which then created AlphaGo, which defeated the world American archetypes. champion in the boardgame Go, a game until recently considered unwinnable by autonomous, self-driving for computers due to the need to use cars in 2016 alone, a figure which no intuition to navigate through the almost traditional automaker can come close to. infinite number of potential moves. All this testing has allowed Google’s self- Facebook, Amazon and Uber all invest -driving car company, Waymo to refine heavily from the cash they collect from its technology to a level where human their American and European user base intervention is required once every 5000 and global investor base into artificial kilometers on average - an improvement intelligence startups. from once per 1000 kilometers one year earlier; and while Google and Elon Musk This division of labor between the revolutionize the car industry, and with innovative U.S. and consumer-providing companies like Apple joining in, Europe’s Europe creates a vicious structural biggest car manufacturer, Volkswagen, circle for Europe where risk-friendly is still dealing with the fallout from its capital generated from first generation diesel emission cheating scandal. e-commerce players only accumulates outside of Europe, further amplifying So while it is no problem that European the already pronounced dearth of private consumers are using Facebook or Google, risk capital. What seemed like a win-win it is becoming a problem that Europe example of globalization might end up as hasn’t been able to create any comparable, a win-lose setup with Europe left with the large-scale applications on their own, short-end of the stick. which could direct their resources and investment to pioneer next generation Another worrisome example is the technologies. Europe risks being left European auto industry. For decades, behind. Europeans were used to considering their car industry – German, French, Italian – III. as vastly superior technologically to China, on the other hand, has kept the struggling American giants like GM American internet companies at bay. The and Chrysler. However, the tables appear restrictions set on Google, Facebook, and to be turning due to the entrance of others in China, were officially driven Silicon Valley players into the industry. primarily by concerns that they could The breakout success of built-from- undermine the censorship and control of -scratch Tesla cars was a first warning the ruling party. However, no matter how shot that could have been brushed off just the motivations for these restrictions as a billionaire’s extravagance. Google’s were, in consequence, China has developed less public effort to develop self-driving their own players, which are now catching technology resulted in more than one up to and sometimes overtaking the million kilometers driven on public roads American archetypes. The web search
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© Evgen3d (Fotolia)
leader Baidu, social networks like Sina world, with all three Chinese internet Wei and the messenger-turned-mobile- giants among its shareholders (Tencent, -platform WeChat, have grown strong, Alibaba and Baidu). protected from Western competition. The strength of the Chinese internet industry Similarly to their American counterparts, gained global prominence with the IPO it is these Chinese internet companies of China’s largest e-commerce platform which use the cash generated from Alibaba, which is now the world’s fifth their mass applications to push forward biggest internet company by market next generation technologies. Baidu, capitalization. for example, recently acquired the Beijing-based artificial intelligence outfit Among the top-10 biggest internet-based Raven Tech and is also pushing into the businesses in the world, there are now autonomous vehicles industry. It is telling seven American firms (Amazon, Google, that Baidu is among the companies to have Facebook, eBay, Netflix, Priceline, and received an Autonomous Vehicle Testing three Chinese ones: Tencent, Alibaba and Permit by the Department of Motor Baidu). There is not a single European Vehicles in California. company. IV. However, what is more critical is how these What does that development mean for first generation social and e-commerce Europe? Unfortunately, nothing good. players are the catalysts for the next Once the boat is missed on a certain generation of internet businesses. A good technological development, it is not that example is the ride-hailing application easy to catch up. A good example is the Didi. Didi, a local competitor to Uber, economy of the Soviet Union. While, was backed by investments from Tencent, of course there is only limited sense in the Chinese social media champion comparing the European Union to the and Alibaba, the Chinese e-commerce Soviet Union – one being a voluntary union behemoth. After a long battle for market of democratic and capitalist states, and dominance with Uber, Didi finally the other a totalitarian planned economy overtook Uber China and became the created by force – the Soviet case still largest ride-haling application in the provides a useful illustration.
102 The Warsaw Institute Review Missing The Future
There are many reasons for the economic To avoid this, a paradigm shift is and as a consequence, political collapse of required – European leaders need to stop the Soviet Union – the economic costs of focusing on how to restore the wealth the revived arms race, the oil price drop of generators of the twentieth century, 1986 and so on. But one interesting element and let European companies join the is the Soviet failure to compete in the competition for building the twenty- realm of microelectronics. Semiconductor- -first century. European states need to -based electronics was initially developed help alleviate the lack of private risk in the U.S. and mass manufacturing was capital and investment structures, while successfully developed in Asia. By the avoiding the trap of creating a bureaucratic 1970s, the Soviets realized the growing parallel world where startups adjust their importance of that technology and made business models to the requirements of some strides to catch up with the West in EU funding programs, rather than market integrated circuit production, but were needs. Europe needs to rethink its often- always lagging behind by several years. By restrictive regulations, that protect the the mid-1980s, the Soviet integrated circuit vested interests of the old economy at the production capacity was approximately expense of disruptive, new technologies, 10% of that in the U.S. and two generations be it with financial services and the behind the latest chip models, while at upcoming blockchain revolution, or the same time microprocessors started elements of the shared economy, such as playing an ever-bigger role as growth ride and apartment-sharing. drivers of the global economy. By the late 1980s, the Soviet Union de-facto gave up Europe needs mechanisms for quicker, on developing its own microprocessing pan-European rollouts of local ventures technology and started refurbishing plants and must improve direct access to the to copy American technology, just as U.S. market, to restore the transatlantic developing Asian countries had done many economic relationship to a two-way years before. street, especially when it comes to new technology. Both the private and public So, does Europe stand a chance of catching sectors can team up to create platforms up or is it structurally destined to become to ease access to overseas markets. But a backwards backwater, doomed to watch most of all, Europeans need to overcome the technological progress of the future complacency and a sense of false security. from the sidelines, at most as passive In focusing our attention on fighting consumers? Over the last few years, the fires, we might be missing the boat to the EU – and the Eurozone in particular – has future. A wake-up call is required. And already become the sick man of the world’s it seems that the more dynamic East- economy. Average annual growth rates -Central European region is quicker in over the last five years were 2.7% for the understanding and adapting. Increasingly, world, 2.1% for the U.S., 7.9% for China countries like Poland, Romania, Hungary and 6.7% for India. The economy of the and the Baltics are becoming growth Eurozone however grew only by 0.7% drivers, including in the new technology in that period. While many Europeans space. The innovation zone is shifting still believe that this prolonged economic outside the Eurozone. But will it be enough stagnation is a temporary challenge that to turn the European ship around? will somehow be overcome, it could also be the beginning of a long-lasting structural disadvantage that will make Europe fall Roch Baranowski behind in the growth drivers of the future. February 1, 2017
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Analytics and big data in the energy sector Sebastian Sakowski, PhD Tremendous advances in computer technology, huge storage capabilities, and fast communication through computer networks have enabled the application of sophisticated statistical methods for knowledge discovery from data warehouses.
n recent years, we have started and now we only need to look into data storing and processing data like never storage to discover new knowledge. before and data mining techniques Nowadays, we can observe a lot of big data have become vital in various spheres and data mining applications in various Iof real life, e.g. the retail industry, finance, areas including energy industry, chemical and fraud detection. Most electronic engineering, ecosystem modeling, and information was only recently created, biomedical research. Data mining and big
104 The Warsaw Institute Review Analytics and big data in the energy sector data techniques are still evolving and the latest trends in these fields include web mining, text mining and integration with Data mining and big warehouse systems. data techniques are still Analytics in business and evolving and the latest industry trends in these fields Investment banks and asset management use advanced mathematical algorithms include web mining, text to analyze huge data sets to make mining and integration reasonable investment decisions. Goldman Sachs, one of the biggest investment banks with warehouse systems. in the world, uses artificial intelligence solutions to improve existing business in Azerbaijan, which is located at ADA processes. Meanwhile, JPMorgan, another University in Baku and aims to provide global leader in financial services, is an excellent opportunity for people to currently developing big data applications share knowledge about big data analytics. and robotics. These banks have a large database of customers and could apply big Another oil and gas company (Royal data analytics to build a risk prediction Dutch Shell) collects data from sensors model and to credit risk scores. Another which monitor the low frequency seismic example of applying big data analytics is waves of tectonic activities. These huge Netflix, a multinational entertainment data are considered alongside information company that specializes in streaming about exploration drilling in order to then media and attempts to predict which make recommendations about where books, music and movies clients may to drill. Shell uses advanced computer enjoy. technology to improve the operation of the machinery used in drilling and British Petroleum (BP) is an industry to streamline the transportation of oil leader in using new computer technology and gas. Furthermore, Shell applies such as big data and data mining. It has complex mathematical models to set prices opened in Huston (USA) the “Center for at petrol stations and strives to increase the High-Performance Computing” (CHPC) efficiency of the distribution of oil and gas. which is one of the world’s largest supercomputers for commercial research. Polish companies are in the initial phase These computers use big data techniques to explore big data technology. This is to support the energy industry from because data analytics requires investment around the world. Using this approach, in computer infrastructure. For this BP can gather data with the use of seismic reason, the first projects in this area were technology and geophysical sciences developed by Poland’s largest company. that can be applied in drilling and could For example, the largest online transaction help in oil and natural gas exploration. platform in Poland (Allegro) uses big data In addition, this data center opens new analytics to analyze users and to help them possibilities for the application of data find the products they desire. It is worth mining techniques in other areas of noting that in the coming years the biggest business activities, such as midstream Polish companies want to develop big and downstream. Recently BP has data analytics, and those which operate established the first Big“ Data, Data in the drilling industry and geophysical Sciences Instruction and Research Centre” services industry have the potential to use
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electrical power industry. For example in the oil industry we can distinguish Some Polish companies different cases for using big data analytics, are able to build global such as in upstream, midstream and downstream. In upstream big data strategies based on analytics are used to store, to analyze innovative technologies seismic data, and to decrease crashes in production. However, midstream big data such as big data and cloud infrastructure is used to store conservation computing. logs and to analyze transport data in real-time. In the oil and gas industry big data analytics and pattern recognition (downstream) big data technology has techniques as they process and store huge been employed to gas station automation amounts of seismic data. It can be said optimization and to minimize financial that this move is somewhat necessary risk. Big data techniques and data mining for companies to excel and compete in models could be used by energy companies today’s competitive global economy. Some for high frequency trading on financial Polish companies are able to build global and energy markets. The ability to collect strategies based on innovative technologies and analyze data such as day prices and such as big data and cloud computing. information about trading positions For example, the Polish company Cloud can allow for reduced transaction risks Technologies applied big data technology associated with the management of to online advertising and the optimization positions on commodity markets. Big data of advertising campaigns. It should be analytics could help commodity traders noted that Poland has great opportunities make better transactions on financial to further develop in the areas of big markets and decision makers to quickly data and data mining as Polish computer respond to rapidly changing commodity scientists enjoy global respect. This is due markets. Such solutions can provide many to the fact that Polish software developers advantages, including the discovery of have won some of the most challenging new correlations among commodities, programming competitions in the world a decrease in transactions costs and such as the Google Code Jam and the improving the calculation of transaction Microsoft Imagine Cup. risks. It is worth noting that big data It should be emphasized that in the latest techniques can help trading organizations world ranking of the best countries for to identify aberrant trading behaviors and computer programming Poland took third to regulate financial markets too. place. Therefore, supporting innovative areas of computer science such as big data Most companies collect data from different is crucial from a strategic point of view sources, such as sensors for drilling of the Polish government. It is important technological parameters, demographic both to develop entrepreneurship based data, and from social media. Therefore on advanced computer techniques and to the integration and management of big implement big data technology in Polish data collections are crucial for companies companies partly owned by the treasury. working in the sphere of international business. The complexity and diversity Big data in the energy sector of this information requires algorithmic The energy industry includes four main approaches that can be implemented by areas: the petroleum industry, the gas data scientists who can use statistical industry, the coal industry, and the analysis, reporting services, and neural
106 The Warsaw Institute Review Analytics and big data in the energy sector
networks. The energy industry uses business intelligence and data mining Big data analytics could techniques to optimize decision making, to improve the efficiency of refineries, help commodity traders and to predict the prices of financial make better transactions markets. In recent years an increasing number of data mining systems have been on financial markets presented and implemented in various and decision makers to domains. Most energy companies store huge amounts of information in the form quickly respond to rapidly of a relational database (e.g. SQL Server) changing commodity and in the form of unstructured data, markets. (e.g. text documents). This information includes data from IT infrastructure such Reference Architecture (MURA platform), as real-time data from different industrial and Oracle Architecture Development sensors and environmental monitoring. Process. Analytics in the energy industry Energy companies should use new provide tools for knowledge management methods and technologies to integrate and thereby generate new added value for and analyze data, e.g. Hadoop and economic growth. As such, the energy NoSQL. Hadoop technology allows for the companies that wish to use analytics in distributed processing data on clusters of their businesses can start by developing computers and is designed to scalability of big data and data mining strategies. Due calculation processing. New technologies to the complexity of these issues big have lowered the cost of data processing data strategies should be carried out by and technology, such as Hadoop, thus a team composed of academicians and making the analysis of large data sets experienced data scientists. more efficient. We distinguish other big data platforms that can be used in the Data mining techniques energy industry, such as IBM open source Data warehouses store information InfoSphere platform, Microsoft Upstream gathered from different sources such
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for quick decision making and responses The main goal of using to changes in the business environment. big data techniques Future trends: is to improve the It is estimated that the global market analysis of big data is currently growing efficiency of strategic six times faster than that of the IT sector. decision making. There is little doubt that big data analytics has afforded additional benefits to businesses and improved the functioning as databases, computer systems, and of corporations. Today’s businesses from social media. The amount and the must be able to react quicker, should be complexity of these data are such that a profitable, and must focus on high quality company must use sophisticated analytics customers services. Company managers techniques such as machine learning. The should be interested in new analytics main goal of data mining techniques is methods such as data mining and business the optimization of the business process intelligence, which impact every industry and to use data sets to improve business in the modern world. The implementation decisions. Data mining methods focus of big data and data mining techniques on the extraction of previously unknown has many advantages for companies, (nontrivial) information from data, such as improving the efficiency of and use advanced computer science production process, integrating data from methods to discover knowledge from different sensors, improving management large volumes of data and to present the processes, and speeding up exploration results of big data analysis in a form that and production. Big data and data mining is easily comprehensible. Data mining are major disciplines in computer science can help a company’s managers with with growing industrial impact which regard to fast and better strategic decision clearly influences the energy industry. It making. These methods can enable the is predicted that big data and data mining development patterns and relationships technology will face plenty of interesting which occur in the data in order to then new challenges in the future, such as build a model for the real world. The finding ways to improve predictions and managers can use these models to make forecast models. If companies can use predictions and to improve the business data science and big data tools for making process. Data mining is used to build predictions, this is likely to optimize many models, e.g. clustering, time series, investments and help cut costs. In the near and classification, the main aim of which future we will see more smart machines is to solve business problems. The most with sophisticated sensors that will enable popular application of analytics in the the storage of huge amount of data, while energy industry is to reduce energy costs new products based on big data will be and to oversee energy consumption. created with many companies having to apply big data analytics in order to However, the concept of big data is to apply increase their competitiveness in global in practice advanced computer analysis by markets. using complex mathematical models that are executed on large data sets. The main goal of using big data techniques is to improve the efficiency of strategic decision Sebastian Sakowski making. Effective analysis of data allows January 4, 2017
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