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e normally use this page to highlight some of the big ideas our readers will Wencounter in the magazine. This time, we are making an exception to share some important news: Foreign Policy has a new home. We are thrilled to announce that on October 1, our magazine was purchased by the Washington Post Company from its longtime owner, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. For nearly four decades, the Carnegie Endowment’s generous and unwavering support allowed Foreign Policy to become what it is today—an award-winning publication recognized for the quality of its content and the caliber of its writers. We are also proud that FP enjoys a growing, enthusiastic, and global audience, with editions in nine languages and readers in more than 160 countries. FP’s success would not have been possible without Carnegie’s recognition that editorial excellence depends on intellectual independence. As editors, we not only enjoyed Carnegie’s material support but, just as important, we were given the freedom to pursue big ideas regardless of any consideration other than their importance, rigor, and originality. In a competitive marketplace of ideas that is international and instantaneous, we know we will only attract and retain readers by presenting the most important ideas about global politics and economics in a way that challenges the common wisdom and stimulates new thinking. This approach has served us well. It stands at the core of the reasons that led the Washington Post Company to buy FP. At a time in which print publications are challenged by the Internet, our new owner recognizes that quality content matters more than its format. And while most American publications are cutting back on their international coverage, the Washington Post Company sees the opportunities created by a growing market of readers eager to better understand how their communities, jobs, and families will be affected by what happens in other countries and continents. We don’t plan to make major changes to an editorial approach that is working well— just to give you more of it. Foreign Policy will continue to appear every two months, and ForeignPolicy.com will continue to offer original material on a daily basis. We will also be hard at work on a major relaunch of FP’s Web site for early 2009. We could not be more excited to join a company that embodies the values of quality journalism: objectivity and independence. And we cannot help but celebrate that our new owners are as dedicated as we are to the mission laid out in the first issue of Foreign Policy by its founders: “Our goal is a journal of foreign policy that is serious but not scholarly, lively but not glib, and critical without being negative.” These words are as valid today as they were in 1970. We look forward to hearing from you. And thank you for your continued support.

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P.S.: We are proud to announce that FP won three Folio awards in September. The magazine won gold in the Best Article category for “What America Must Do,” and it received second-place honors in the Best Article and Best Full Issue categories. We are honored to be singled out once again for one of the industry’s most competitive honors.

November | December 2008 1 CONTENTS November| December 2008

4 LETTERS A legacy of failure I A second opinion I Questioning corruption I The problem with Pakistan.

28 IN BOX Fashion forward I The globalization of martyrdom I This is your brain on war I Epiphanies from Garry Kasparov I Development’s great depression I Plus, FP tests your knowledge of the world.

THINK AGAIN 32 The Catholic Church From the outside, the Vatican appears flush with riches, resistant to change, and tone-deaf to scandal. But, 50 in reality, the Catholic Church is attracting millions of new and diverse followers who are embracing the church’s traditions of Meet the men and women debate and independence as gospel. By John L. Allen Jr. who should form the next president’s team of rivals. PRIME NUMBERS 40 Change Is in the Air More airlines around the world have gone belly up this year than in the aftermath of September 11. Airlines have simply met their match in the high price of oil. Nothing short of a complete overhaul of the industry—fewer carriers, fewer flights, and far higher prices—will keep the world flying. By William Swelbar

ESSAYS 42 America’s Hard Sell For more than half a century, the United States ensured that five Big Ideas shaped international politics. Now, as the Big Ideas of the 21st century are formed, just who will corner the new global market of ideology is anyone’s guess. One thing is certain, though: If the United States wants to remain a player, it’s going to have to refine its sales pitch. By Bruce W. Jentleson and Steven Weber 50 The Dream Team The next American president will confront a host of potential cataclysms: from a virulent financial crisis to a vicious terrorist enemy, nuclear proliferation to climate change. He’ll need his country’s brightest minds—not his party’s usual suspects. So, we asked

68 ; BOTTOM: ANDY HWANG/ISTOCKPHOTO.COM 10 of the world’s top thinkers to name the unlikely team that can best FP guide No. 44 through the turbulent years ahead. Urban legends: Find out which towns Robert Baer Kishore Mahbubani top our ranking of the Christoph Bertram Cesare Merlini world’s most global cities. Robert L. Gallucci Grover Norquist Leslie H. Gelb Gideon Rachman Katrina vanden Heuvel Shashi Tharoor COVER: ILLUSTRATION BY SHOUT! FOR FP TOP: ILLUSTRATION BY ZINA SAUNDERS FOR

2 Foreign Policy 58

GLOBALIZATION AT WORK The adoption racket: 58 The Lie We Love International adoption seems like the ideal solution Inside the sad trade to a heartbreaking imbalance: Poor countries have babies in need of in foreign babies. homes, and rich countries have homes in need of babies. Unfortunately, those little bundles of joy may not be orphans at all. By E.J. Graff

THE FP INDEX 68 The Global Cities Index Cities bear the brunt of the world’s financial meltdowns, crime waves, and climate crises in ways national governments never will. So, when Foreign Policy, A.T. Kearney, and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs teamed up to measure globalization around the world, we focused on the 60 cities that shape our lives the most.

ARGUMENT 78 Power to the People Why it’s the poor—not the experts—who can best solve the food crisis. By Eric Werker

FP REVIEWS 80 IN OTHER WORDS The dangers of ignoring evil By James Traub I An Arab intellectual studies an unlikely subject By Robert Silverman I Plus, what they’re reading in Havana.

90 Development mafia 2.0 I Rebels with a server I Text NET EFFECT 42 for the cure I Bloggers sink the eu I Plus, Wired’s Chris Anderson on the sites that make him so darn smart. Why the world

MISSING LINKS is in the market for 96 After the Fall What the lessons of 9/11 could teach the world a new set of values. TOP: GILLES SABRIE; BOTTOM: ILLUSTRATION BY SHOUT FOR about the financial crisis. By Moisés Naím

November | December 2008 3 [ LETTERS ]

A Legacy of Failure administration. It is, once again, an David Frum (“Think Again: Bush’s indictment of the American media and Legacy,” September/October 2008) political establishment as a whole. makes some good points, but most of the arguments in his essay are —Anatol Lieven Moisés Naím unproven or only manage to defend Professor, King’s College London EDITOR IN CHIEF George W. Bush by implicitly indicting Senior Fellow, New America Foundation William J. Dobson the U.S. foreign policy and security London, England MANAGING EDITOR establishment in general. Kate G. Palmer On Iraq, Frum writes entirely in the DEPUTY MANAGING EDITOR future tense: The United States will The foreign-policy course of the Bush Carolyn O’Hara have achieved this and Iraq’s neighbors administration will long be remem- SENIOR EDITOR will remain that. It is still too early to bered, but any nostalgia will likely be Rebecca Frankel tell what will happen if the United for opportunities lost rather than taken. ASSOCIATE EDITOR States withdraws most of its troops. Even Frum has a hard time selling the Preeti Aroon, Elizabeth Dickinson What we do know is that the invasion notion of a positive Bush foreign-policy ASSISTANT EDITORS of Iraq failed to meet all the grandiose legacy. Frum argues that closer ties to Joshua E. Keating promises held out by advocates, India, a pragmatic relationship with EDITORIAL ASSISTANT including Frum, from Israeli-Palestinian China, and pressure on Iran will pay Lara Ballou peace to the democratization of Iran dividends for years to come. Frum’s ASSISTANT TO THE EDITOR and Syria. metaphor suggests that Bush has On terrorism, Frum rightly points “invested” his foreign-policy capital, Jerome Y. Chen out that there have been no new attacks implying that even though these don’t RESEARCHER on the United States. But the reason seem like major gains now, they will be Travis C. Daub may well be that, given moderately suc- in the future. ART DIRECTOR cessful defensive security measures, In the case of China, it’s hard to argue Bradley Amburn such attacks were never going to mate- with the pursuit of a pragmatic rela- DESIGN & PRODUCTION MANAGER rialize. Perhaps the 9/11 attacks were in tionship. Has this been a big invest- Katherine Yester fact an evilly brilliant one-off, which ment or simply a recognition of China’s PRODUCTION ASSISTANT did not require or justify the radical role as the United States’ second largest Blake Hounshell recasting of U.S. strategy—let alone the creditor? With respect to Iran, the WEB EDITOR invasion of Iraq. administration invested little diplomatic Thomas R. Stec What we do know is the following: capital, leaving the tough negotiating to WEBMASTER that tens and possibly hundreds of its European colleagues. More impor- Blaine Sheldon thousands of Iraqis died from civil war tant, the policy hasn’t worked. WEB DEVELOPER and terrorism in the wake of the Amer- On India, however, Bush made a big CONTRIBUTING EDITORS ican invasion; that terrorism and and unnecessary gamble. Like the Jacques Attali, Paris; Jorge I. Domínguez, extremism are rising in the vital coun- financial sector that relied on the con- Cambridge, Mass.; Yoichi Funabashi, Tokyo; try of Pakistan; and that the chief plan- tinuation of the housing bubble, Pres- Yegor T. Gaidar, Moscow; Gianni Riotta, Rome ners of 9/11, Osama bin Laden and ident Bush’s big concessions to India CONTRIBUTING WRITERS Ayman al-Zawahiri, are still free to have been predicated on a few hopes— David L. Bosco, Christine Y. Chen plan attacks. and prayers—that India would reorient

EDITORIAL BOARD Furthermore, what is the “alliance” its foreign policy toward the United Morton Abramowitz, John Deutch, Lawrence Freedman, with India really worth, given India’s States and provide a strategic coun- Diego Hidalgo, Stanley Hoffmann, Robert D. Hormats, Thomas L. Hughes, Karl Kaiser, Jessica T. Mathews, opposition to U.S. strategy on a range terweight against China. In return, Donald F. McHenry, Cesare Merlini, Thierry de Montbrial, of issues including links with Iran? India achieved legitimacy as a nuclear Joseph S. Nye Jr., Soli Özel, Moeen Qureshi, John E. Rielly, Klaus Schwab, Helmut Sonnenfeldt, Lawrence Summers, How valuable is the “alliance” with power. And it doesn’t hurt that India, Strobe Talbott, Richard H. Ullman, Stephen M. Walt Europe, given the lack of real Euro- with the trade ban lifted, will now be pean military help in Afghanistan? able to run its nuclear power reactors Foreign Policy 1779 Massachusetts Avenue, NW What have the United States and on foreign uranium, freeing up what Washington, DC 20036 Europe together been able to do to had been a limited domestic supply Publishing Office: (202) 939-2230 Subscriptions: (800) 535-6343 stop Iran’s nuclear program? What has for weapons. ForeignPolicy.com become of the Bush administration’s No one really believes there will be strategy toward Russia, given the com- nonproliferation dividends from this © 2008 by Washingtonpost.Newsweek Interactive, LLC. All bination of recklessly encouraging deal. But the gamble may provoke rights reserved. FOREIGN POLICY and its logo are trademarks of Washingtonpost.Newsweek Interactive, a subsidiary of Georgia and failing to defend that more runs on the bank. The Washington Post Company, which bears no responsibility for country? What has become of the the editorial content; the views expressed in the articles are those of the authors. No part of this publication may be reproduced in “road map” to Middle East peace? —Sharon Squassoni any form without permission in writing from the publisher. The fact that these questions are not Senior Associate

NATIONAL MAGAZINE being forcefully asked in the United Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2007 AWARD WINNER States is not a defense of the Bush Washington, D.C. GENERAL EXCELLENCE ozzie

4 Foreign Policy

[ Letters ]

On geopolitical grounds, Frum’s assess- on future events: whether Iraq contin- ments are highly questionable. Although ues toward peace and whether the U.S.- he concedes that the war in Iraq has India relationship matures into a true defined Bush’s presidency, Frum over- partnership. At the same time, many of looks the critical human toll of the war their criticisms are conditional as well. Lynn E. Newhouse on Iraq: citizens forced to move from The assumption that further terrorist ASSOCIATE PUBLISHER & GENERAL MANAGER their homes and become refugees in their attacks could have been prevented with Annette Munroe own country and beyond it. The human- “moderately successful defensive secu- CIRCULATION DIRECTOR itarian crisis in Iraq is no mere detail. rity measures” or that the Indian poli- Robert Essaf Displaced populations are fertile breed- cy will generate “runs on the bank” BUSINESS ASSISTANT ing pools for despair and terrorism. They are far from guaranteed outcomes, for can trigger conflict for the seizure of example. Amy Russell land and ethnic cleansing. And they can Much of the harshest criticism of the DIRECTOR OF SALES shape the geopolitical interests of neigh- Bush presidency has already been Maria San Jose boring countries. debunked by events. The tone of this ADVERTISING SALES REPRESENTATIVE Regarding Latin America, Frum criticism has often been hyperpartisan makes the cryptic suggestion that Bush and overstated far beyond any reason- Jina Hassan has given Hugo Chávez “enough rope able interpretation of the facts. MEDIA AND PR COORDINATOR to hang himself.” That could not be Laura Garcés’s letter is a perfect further from the truth. Aside from example of this tendency. There has Alexia Sagemüller reports that the United States actively indeed been a terrible human toll in CORPORATE PROGRAMS DIRECTOR intervened in 2002 to depose Chávez, Iraq. That toll has been the work of the Sabina Nicholls the Bush administration has been quite terrorists and insurgents who have CORPORATE PROGRAMS ASSISTANT active in supporting the Venezuelan made war on their fellow Iraqis with

president’s nemesis, Colombian Presi- brutal disregard for human life. The Randolph F. Manderstam dent Álvaro Uribe, in militarizing the suffering of civilians is the work of

SYNDICATION COORDINATOR drug issue and, in the process, polariz- those who purposefully attacked them, ing South American countries along not those who tried with imperfect suc- SUBSCRIPTIONS & SUBSCRIBER SERVICES obsolete Cold War lines. Certainly, cess to protect them. FOREIGN POLICY, P.O. Box 474, Mt. Morris, IL Washington has been successful in alien- [ 61054-8499; ForeignPolicy.com; e-mail: ating several countries to its south. [email protected]; (800) 535-6343 in U.S.; (386) For More Online Finally, Frum mentions that, because 246-0120 outside U.S.; Publications mail agreement no. 40778561. Rates (in U.S. funds): the United States has not suffered a David Frum answers readers’ questions $24.95 for one year; $44 for two years. Canada major terrorist attack since 2001, one about his controversial defense of add $12/yr. for postage and handling; other must infer that Washington’s policies President Bush’s record, at countries add $18/yr. For academic rates, go to have made Americans safer. Of course, ForeignPolicy.com/extras/frum. ForeignPolicy.com/education. one cannot quarrel with events that have [ not happened. But one could venture ADVERTISING & FP CORPORATE PROGRAMS that Osama bin Laden has no reason Call (202) 939-2243. now to expose himself and expend massive resources when he already accom- A Second Opinion NEWSSTAND AND BOOKSTORE DISTRIBUTION plished exactly what he wanted: billions Roger Bate (“The Deadly World of Curtis Circulation Company, 730 River Road, New of U.S. dollars spent launching wars, Fake Drugs,” September/October Milford, NJ 07646-3048; (201) 634-7400. the total neglect of American infra- 2008) correctly identifies the serious structure, and the loss of business from threat to patient safety that substan- BACK ISSUES thousands of tourists who are wary of dard counterfeit medicines pose. But $10.95 per copy. International airmail add $3.00 per staying in line for hours dealing with one of his prescriptions—that health copy; online: ForeignPolicy.com; e-mail: airport personnel. Decay and bank- professionals consider sacrificing broad [email protected]. ruptcy are what he sought, and fear is public access to treatment in favor of what he wanted to instill. purchasing more expensive brand- MEDIA INQUIRIES Can anyone doubt that he succeeded? name drugs—is bad medicine indeed. Call Jina Hassan at (202) 939-2242; Bate, a resident fellow of the American [email protected]. —Laura Garcés Enterprise Institute, failed to disclose Independent Researcher that his organization receives substantial SYNDICATION REQUESTS Washington, D.C. funding from brand-name pharmaceu- Contact Randolph F. Manderstam (202) 939-2241; tical companies, including the Eli Lilly [email protected]. David Frum replies: and Company Foundation and the Anatol Lieven and Sharon Squassoni Bristol-Myers Squibb Foundation. Bate OTHER PERMISSION REQUESTS are certainly correct that some of my is also a fellow at the Institute of Eco- Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (978) 750-8400; www.copyright.com. defense of the Bush foreign-policy nomic Affairs, which employs on its record is conditional. Much will depend board of trustees a former chairman of

6 Foreign Policy 2008 WINNERS

BOOKThe Washington PRIZE Institute First Annual Awards

Silver prize: $15,000 FOXBATS OVER DIMONA Isabella Ginor and Gideon Remez (Yale)

Bronze prize: $5,000 WORLDS AT WAR Anthony Pagden (Random House)

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THE SIEGE OF MECCA Jurors Yaroslav Troﬁmov (Doubleday) Jim Hoagland, Washington Post Bernard Lewis, Princeton University Michael Mandelbaum, Johns Hopkins SAIS

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1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050 N Washington, DC 20036 N Ph. 202-452-0650 N www.washingtoninstitute.org [ Letters ]

“A bridge betweenbetween the SmithKline Beecham who is currently worldoworld of ideas and the CAMPAIGN 2008: a member of GlaxoSmithKline’s board wworldorld of action.” THE ISSUES CONSIDERED of directors. James A. Baker,Baker, III Brand-name pharmaceutical com- Baker Institute Fellows and Experts from the Honorary Chair panies stand to benefit substantially Republican and Democratic Parties Examine Key from some of Bate’s proposals. For Policy Issues of the 2008 Presidential Race example, he claims humanitarian groups must choose between “expen- New International Stem Energy Forum sive, safe drugs that treat fewer CllPCell Program g EExamines i Explores Ways patients, or cheaper drugs that might Middle Eastern Policies JAMESAMES AA.. BAKER III to Lower Fuel not work.” This false dichotomy Prices excludes the many affordable generic INSTITUTEI INST TUTE FOR medicines that have undergone rigor- PUBLICP POLICYCYICPOLILBPU ous testing at the World Health Organization and other major drug regulatory authorities. Bate asserts, with no supporting evidence, that “[humanitarian] groups often purchase copy drugs from China and India that have not been tested properly.” But estimates suggest up to 80 percent of the raw materials For more: used by the U.S. drug industry are www.bakerinstitute.orgwww.bakerinstitute.orr g imported. Half of these also come from China and India, and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is rarely able to inspect these plants. Expensive brand-name drugs are not categorically safer. Counterfeit medicines are a subset of a larger drug-quality problem. Relying on brand-name drugs won’t solve it. Bate’s suggestion would enrich Big Pharma while leaving the millions who rely on low-cost, high- quality generic medicines without treatment of any kind.

—Peter Maybarduk Attorney Access to Medicines Project Essential Action Washington, D.C.

Roger Bate replies: Peter Maybarduk mischaracterizes my arguments, denies a real problem, and scurrilously implies my arguments are dictated by money. Even major donors such as the Global Fund to Fight aids, Tubercu- losis and Malaria buy drugs not approved by stringent agencies like the U.S. fda or the World Health Organization. Given the inadequacies of testing regimes in most developing countries, where these drugs are produced, substandard drugs pass through the system. The corrupt national drug producer of Thailand, applauded by many The Best in International Economics

China’s Rise: Challenges and Opportunities

C. Fred Bergsten, Charles Freeman, Nicholas R. Lardy & Derek J. Mitchell

“…designed to clarify contemporary China and advise how U.S. ‘engagement’ with China may best move ahead. There’s lots here, but clearly presented, with a great chronology.” Library Journal September 2008 • ISBN hardcover 978-0-88132-417-4 • $26.95

Leveling the Carbon Playing Field: International Competition and US Climate Policy Design Trevor Houser, Rob Bradley, Britt Childs, Jacob Werksman & Robert Heilmayr Th is important new book explores the critical question for the design of pro- posed US climate policy: how to level the playing ﬁ eld for carbon-intensive industries in competing polluting economies during a period of transition. Th is book is a collaboration between the Peterson Institute for International Econom- ics and the World Resources Institute. May 2008 • ISBN paper 978-0-88132-420-4 • $19.95

Challenges of Globalization: Imbalances and Growth Anders Åslund & Marek Dabrowski, editors Th is book addresses the growing global macroeconomic imbalances as well as the challenges of globalization and long-term economic growth, with a focus on Europe and Asia. Various aspects of the macroeconomic imbalances are the theme of the ﬁ rst six chapters. Th e second part of the book discusses how the capitalist model of economic development is developing or should evolve, with the last two chapters considering options available to European policymakers to compete with the rapidly growing East Asian Tigers—Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea—and China. July 2008 • ISBN paper 978-0-88132-418-1 • $29.95

Russia The Balance Sheet US Pension Reform: Lessons from Other Countries Anders Åslund & Andrew Kuchins Th is collaboration between the Peterson Institute and CSIS Martin N. Baily & Jacob F. Kirkegaard provides information on all key aspects of Russia and discusses It is generally accepted that Social Security must be reformed, but there is what its status means for the US and other nations. Th e book little agreement on how. Th is book looks at the social pension reforms of develops a cohesive, overarching framework that analyzes twelve other countries, assesses the current US Social Security program, economic reforms and integration, domestic politics and society, and evaluates how these models inform opportunities for reform. It forges foreign business partnerships, and energy demands. It suggests signiﬁ cant advances and boldly confronts the challenge of reconstructing constructive policies for Russia and the next US administration the US Social Security program. that will take oﬃ ce in 2009. ISBN paper 978-0-88132-425-9 • $26.95 ISBN paper 978-0-88132-424-2 • $24.95

www.petersoninstitute.org [ Letters ]

nongovernmental organizations and initially supported by the Global Fund, was forced to shut down because of low-quality products. However, these same medicines were administered to thousands of hiv/aids patients by ngos and the Thai government. No public apology was ever made for buying these substandard products. Chinese and Indian producers have widely varying standards. The best companies in these countries have drugs approved by the World Health Organi- NYU’S zation and the fda. I support these CENTER FOR drugs, not just brand names as May- GLOBAL AFFAIRS barduk suggests. But problems remain with most drugs produced in China and India. U.S. companies do import their ingredients, but unlike American patients, they can assess if the imports are defective. Yes, occasionally they make mistakes, and Many people think about changing the world. the nearly 100 Americans who died from Chinese heparin were a tragic and Some are actually preparing to do it. rare example. Imagine the death toll if the fda had allowed importation of the unsafe final products routinely used MASTER’S IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS in the developing world. The American Enterprise Institute We live in a time of unprecedented interaction between countries, continents, and has hundreds of corporate supporters cultures. The impact of political decisions, economic trends, and social and environ- accounting for only about 20 percent mental issues extends more broadly than at any time in human history. Today, we are of its budget. None can contract for all global citizens. specific work. The vast majority of

The Master of Science in Global Aff airs at NYU is designed for those looking to funding for my investigations of coun- eff ect change in the international community, providing the context, insights, and terfeit drugs was grants from the connections necessary to do so. Our exceptional faculty—UN offi cials, economists, Ohrstrom Foundation and Legatum historians, NGO leaders, journalists—will help you develop the kind of leadership Institute—neither of which creates a and strategic decision-making skills you will need to make a diff erence in our inter- conflict of interest. As to the Institute connected world. of Economic Affairs, I am an unpaid fellow, and my only mention of GlaxoSmithKline was highly critical of the company. The funding of May- barduk’s organization doesn’t interest Information Sessions: me, but his advocacy of poor medi- Tuesday, November 11, 6–8 p.m. cines for the poor worries me greatly. Wednesday, December 17, 6–8 p.m. Please call for locations and to RSVP. scps.nyu.edu/811 1-888-998-7204, ext.811 Questioning Corruption Raymond Fisman and Edward Miguel (“How Economics Can Defeat Cor- ruption,” September/October 2008) rightly argue that in fighting corruption “incentives matter” and that the foren- sic use of economic data can provide valuable insights into corruption schemes. Continuous, creative

New York University is an afﬁ rmative action/equal opportunity institution. ©2008 New York University School of Continuing and Professional Studies approaches are always needed to keep up with the ingenuity of the corrupters.

Advanced International Studies at the Capital of Europe

Now accepting applications for January and September +32 2 641 1721 [email protected] • MA in International Relations • LLM in International Law with www.kent.ac.uk/ • MA in International Conflict Analysis International Relations brussels • MA in European Public Policy • LLM in Public International Law • MA in Migration Studies • LLM in International Economic Law • MA in Political Strategy and • PhD in International Relations Communication • PhD in International Conflict Analysis • MA in International Political Economy [ Letters ]

But, to suggest that “[o]nly then can Raymond Fisman and The Pakistan we take up the much more difficult chal- Edward Miguel reply: lenge of determining what to do about We fully agree with Nancy Zucker Problem it” is to ignore a substantial body of evi- Boswell that immediate and direct International observers, including those dence that can and should be put into action is required to root out corrup- surveyed in Foreign Policy’s 2008 action now. There is broad consensus tion around the world, and that pol- Terrorism Index (September/October among donors, governments, and the icymakers already have some tools in 2008), have concluded that Pakistan private sector that certain approaches hand for doing so. We applaud those will soon become the central front in are necessary—if not entirely sufficient. efforts that are already taking place, the fight against terrorism and that These include increased transparency of including those spearheaded by Trans- their respective governments must play information, supervision, criminal parency International. a central role in this fight. But without enforcement, and, yes, rewarding However, there is far more we must local knowledge and a deeper under- accountability with incentives. learn about designing the most effec- standing of the forces at play, such per- These and other basic pillars of an tive anticorruption strategies. Beyond ceptions are meaningless and highly effective anticorruption agenda that the methods we discuss in our article counterproductive. To make real Transparency International has long for reforming economic incentives and progress, the world must adopt a espoused are now universally agreed institutions, future research can also sophisticated and nuanced approach upon and codified at the international play a role in debunking certain ele- to work with Pakistan. level, most notably in the U.N. Conven- ments of conventional wisdom regard- Since 9/11, Islamabad has paid a tion Against Corruption and in the ing anticorruption efforts that sound heavy price for collaborating with World Bank’s Governance and Anti- plausible in theory but might not be Washington. Pakistan’s western tribal Corruption Strategy. Although further effective in practice. regions, a natural buffer of defense, study is always welcome, action to imple- The worst enemy of progress against have been eroded. For supporting the ment these basic tenets is well overdue. corruption is complacency. So, yes, we United States, Gen. Pervez Mushar- should conduct anticorruption actions raf’s regime lost the support of tribal —Nancy Zucker Boswell now, but the rigorous reevaluation of leaders, contributing directly to an President public policy—which can often yield upsurge in terrorist attacks from that Transparency International—USA unexpected results and insights—must region. In 2007 alone, Pakistan suf- Washington, D.C. remain a top priority. fered at least 45 suicide bombings,

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largest school of international affairs in the United States giving preparingppeparingppprrreparingreparingeparing leaders students the oppo tunity to earn masters degrees in committed to the following fields of study: developingdevvdede eloping ideas, promoting ComparatiComparativeComparatiComparativComparati e & Re Regional SSStudiestudies IInternationalnternational EconomicEconomic RelationselationsRconomic sustainable action, GGlobal EnvironmentalElobal ErnvirnvinviE onmental PolicyolicyPPonmental Policy IInternationalnternational PPeaceeace & Conflict ResolutionesolutionR and advancingadadand advand advvvvancingancing global IInternationalnternational Communication IInternationalnternational PoliticsoliticsP public sesepublic service.rpublic vice. IInternationalnternational DevelopmentveeDD elopmentelopmentelopmentv UUnited Snited States ForeignroFtates eign PolicyolicyP APPLICAPPLICAPPLICATIONAAPPLICATIONAATIONTION DEADLINE FOR FALLALL 20092009FFALL IS JANJANUARYUAAU Y 15, 20092009RRY www.american.edu/sisma.www sis/ude.nacirem

CelebratingeC ll e 5005gnitarbe YearsYe sraeY offfo InInternational ServiceecivreSlanoitanretnI eeo/aa STANFORD UNIVERSITY more than double the number that took place between 2002 and 2006, and the deaths of a number of political leaders, including Benazir Bhutto. managing global complexity After Iraq and Afghanistan, Pakistan has suffered more fatalities from suicide terrorism than any other country. To neutralize the threat, Pakistan needs international understanding, participation, and support. Unless its rule of law, judiciary, and law enforcement authorities are strengthened, the Islamists and jihadists will win. To challenge the forces of extremism systematically, the West must also sup- requires substantive policy expertise port Pakistan’s economic development and the reform of the country’s edu- THE FORD DORSEY PROGRAM IN INTERNATIONAL POLICY STUDIES cation system. Preparing the next generation of analysts to influence international Pakistan faces an unprecedented crisis. But it cannot fight the contempo- policy making in trade, foreign affairs, security, and economic rary wave of terrorism and extremism development. Join a small group of peers who want to make a alone. With the threat from tribal areas difference in the world. spreading to the country’s center, the world’s security is in peril. No country Master of Arts | Two year program | Fall 2009 application deadline: January 6, 2009 is more important than Pakistan in the LIMITED FINANCIAL AID AVAILABLE fight against terrorism—and it’s time for the international community to 216 Encina Hall West, Stanford, CA 94305-6045 | 650.725.9155 back up its concern with action. http://ips.stanford.edu | [email protected]

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The Center for Strategic Advantage American Progress replies: Challengers, Competitors, and Threats to The experts polled in the Terrorism America’s Future Index also see a national security dis- Bruce Berkowitz aster unfolding in Pakistan, as militant 978-1-58901-222-6, $26.95, paperback groups extend their authority beyond Pakistan’s tribal areas, threatening Pakistan, the region, and the world. The September terrorist attack on the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad, in which 53 people were killed and hundreds Career Diplomacy wounded, is further evidence of Pak- istan’s vulnerability to these extremists Life and Work in the U.S. Foreign Service and the growing strength, cruelty, and Harry W. Kopp and Charles A. Gillespie audacity of these groups. 978-1-58901-219-6, paperback, $26.95 Like Rohan Gunaratna, a majority of the index’s experts recommend a change in the U.S. approach toward Pakistan. Moreover, most agree with the assessment that the world must focus on areas such as the rule of law, Pakistan’s economic development, and education. When asked to name the most important step the United [ Letters ]

States could take to assist or pressure Pakistan to combat militant groups New York is more effectively, few experts chose increasing military assistance. Most INTERNATIONAL prefer efforts to integrate tribal areas into the rest of Pakistan or increases THE NEW SCHOOL in development assistance. What is clear to the national secu- is New York rity establishment is that there are no easy answers to Pakistan’s problems. This summer, U.S. President George EARN A MASTER’S DEGREE IN W. Bush secretly authorized the use of INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS force within Pakistan without the country’s approval. Yet when asked for their assessment of whether the Join a community of students from 62 United States should take military countries—from NGO activists, executives action in an identical situation, more of international organizations, and experts in than 6 in 10 of the experts answered technology, media, and finance, to returned “unsure” this spring. Policymakers from Pakistan, the Peace Corps volunteers and recent college United States, and elsewhere are now graduates—each desiring to effect real running out of time. They must move change in the world. Here, you’ll combine urgently to create a more effective, interdisciplinary study with practical problem- comprehensive, and coordinated strategy to address the Pakistani crisis. As solving skills, and gain new perspectives Gunaratna rightly indicates, it must be that can only be found in the world’s most regional, extend beyond a military international city. approach, and target the sources of Pakistan’s instability. · Work directly with international —Caroline Wadhams practitioners and scholars National Security Senior Policy Analyst · Explore issues in global economics, The Center for American Progress poverty and development, cities and Washington, D.C. urbanization, international institutions, NGOs, human rights, conflict and security, and media and culture Corrections: · Learn from summer fieldwork The In Box article “Poppy Trade” in Foreign Policy’s September/October experiences around the world issue misstated the market prices for wheat and poppy in Afghanistan. It INFORMATION SESSIONS should have read: Monday, December 1, at 6:00 p.m. “In 2007, a farmer could expect Wednesday, January 21, at 6:00 p.m. returns of about $320 per acre of 66 West 12th Street, NYC wheat and $640 for an acre of poppy. But by this spring, the return on an acre of wheat had risen to $840 per To RSVP or for more about the program, acre, while poppy had fallen to $400 contact admissions at 212.229.5630 or an acre.” FP regrets the error. visit us online. Foreign Policy welcomes letters to www.newschool.edu/ia10 the editor. Readers should address their comments to fpletters @ForeignPolicy.com. Letters should not exceed 300 words and may be edited for length and clarity. Letters sent by e-mail should include a postal

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Learn more online now. government.jhu.edu eufocus in Foreign Policy A MESSAGE FROM AMBASSADOR JOHN BRUTON Q EU Focus Head of Delegation In-depth treatment European Commission Delegation to the United States of important European One of the founding purposes of today’s European Union was to create issues and the lasting peace among countries that had fought each other for centuries. transatlantic relationship Not surprisingly, given that peace and prosperity are still our guiding Q This Issue objectives, we devote considerable energy and resources to maintaining The EU and Peacekeeping: peace beyond our borders. Promoting Security, Stability, Through military and civilian missions, the EU and its Member States and Democratic Values monitor ceaseﬁ res, observe elections, support police and judicial reform, promote human Q Comments rights and the rule of law, and help rebuild democratic institutions. Since 2003, the EU E-mail to Delegation-USA- has carried out more than 20 peacekeeping operations in Europe, Africa and Asia, either [email protected] autonomously or in conjunction with the UN, NATO, or the African Union. In this issue of EU Focus, I’m pleased to share with you the many ways in which the EU is working to help others end – and recover from – violent conﬂ ict. www.eurunion.org Special Advertising Supplement euufocusfff | November 2008 |

The EU and Peacekeeping: Promoting Security, Stability, and Democratic Values

"The enlarged European Union From its creation, the European Union has engaged in has the power and the capability crisis management and conflict prevention. Conceived as a means to end war in Europe through institutional to shape global order. During integration and a voluntary pooling of sovereignty, the EU the last fifty years, we built today continues to strive for peace, security, and prosper- a peaceful Europe based on ity across the European continent—and often beyond. freedom and solidarity. In the Since the mid-1990s, the EU has been developing a credible foreign and security policy designed to contrib- future, to guarantee and to ute meaningfully to peacekeeping through international reinforce such achievements, we crisis management operations around the globe. need to influence and to shape The European Union and its 27 Member States, EUFOR Chad (2008) the world around us….We will together with the United Nations and others involved not live in peace if we do not in peacekeeping, are currently engaged in innovative From the Western Balkans to Africa, from West missions to secure, maintain, and build peace through- face the external threats to our Asia to Southeast Asia and beyond, the EU's ESDP out the world. Modern peacekeeping dates back to 1948 missions have helped save lives, protect the vulner- security and the instability in the and the launch of the first United Nations mission—the able, and achieve greater stability. Ranging from regions close to Europe." UN Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO), which military actions to police and rule of law opera- still operates in the Middle East today. tions, EU missions are deployed autonomously or to European Commission President José Manuel Barroso A necessary element in today's conflict management complement those of the UN, NATO, and the African operations, traditional peacekeeping focuses primar- Union. EU Member States also contribute forces to ily on monitoring ceasefires. Without establishing and other international peacekeeping activities. maintaining a safe and secure environment in post- inside conflict situations, further development is impossible. 2 Supporting a However, since the end of the Cold War, peacekeep- European Security and Sustainable Peace ing operations have evolved to incorporate additional Defense Policy (ESDP) non-military elements designed to foster democratic 3 Ensuring Free and Fair Part of the EU's Common Foreign and Security institutions, the rule of law and respect for human Elections: EU Election Policy, ESDP enables the EU to develop the rights, a functional police and judiciary, and an electoral Assistance and international crisis management capacities process that meets accepted international standards. Observation Missions required to achieve five key objectives: Perhaps the best example of the EU's comprehensive 4 ESDP Missions Q Safeguarding the EU's common values and around the World approach to peacekeeping can be found in the Western fundamental interests; Balkans. Countries that were mired in devastating 6 Peacekeeping Q Strengthening the security of the EU; conflict in the early 1990s are now at various stages on Close to Home: Q Preserving peace and international security the road to EU membership. European Security and Paving the Way to in accordance with the UN Charter; EU Membership in Defense Policy (ESDP) military operations in both the Western Balkans Bosnia and Herzegovina and the former Yugoslav Q Promoting international cooperation; Republic of Macedonia have contributed to a safe, Q Advancing democracy and the rule of law, 8 EU Peacekeeping secure environment, supported by police missions including human rights. in the International Context that shared expertise and best practices to develop a professional, effective police force.

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Supporting a Sustainable Peace

The European Union strives for stability, security, ties by developing 13 battle groups which will be in The EU's Guiding Doctrine— and prosperity at home and in its relations abroad. service by 2010. Each battle group consists of approxi- European Security Strategy Supporting a sustainable peace is the first step in mately 1,500 troops that can be deployed within 15 meeting these objectives, as well as in ensuring days for up to four months, either as a stand-alone The European Security Strategy, that states emerging from conflict can rebuild their force or as an advance force preparing for a larger adopted in December 2003, democratic institutions and rejoin the community of multinational peacekeeping effort. presents the EU vision of a stronger nations as active, functioning states. international society, based on Two battle groups are already permanently on well-functioning international Peacekeeping has evolved from its traditional role of standby for six-month periods, providing the capacity institutions and a rules-based maintaining a safe and secure environment to include to undertake two concurrent rapid-response opera- international order, by: elements like election observation missions, support tions. Member State contributions to the required t "TTFTTJOH UIF &6hT TFDVSJUZ for police and the judiciary in states recovering from troop commitments have been confirmed through environment in the context the ravages of conflict, promotion of the rule of law, the first half of 2011. Future military needs will be of global challenges and key and respect for human rights. coordinated by the EU's European Defense Agency, threats, including terrorism, which is charged with improving European defense From traditional peacekeeping to police and security the proliferation of weapons capabilities in the field of crisis management and of mass destruction, regional sector reform, from border management to judicial sustaining the ESDP now and in the future. conflicts, state failure, and training, the EU is helping other countries to end and organized crime; recover from conflict. The EU employs an innova- Many EU Member States are also members of NATO, tive mix of military and civilian operations to keep and the EU and NATO officials work closely together t %FGJOJOH UISFF NBKPS TUSBUFHJD objectives: confronting threats the peace, to manage crises, and to advise, assist, and to ensure proper coordination and mutual reinforce- through conflict prevention train local officials who are vital to the functioning of ment of military crisis management operations. The and responding to complex a democratic, rules-based government. 2003 so-called EU-NATO Berlin-Plus Agreement problems with multifaceted allows the EU access to NATO's collective assets and solutions; building security in European Security and Defense Policy capabilities for EU-led operations. Europe's neighborhood; and During the past decade, the European Security and Through Civilian Crisis Management Missions,the promoting an international Defense Policy (ESDP) has developed rapidly to EU supports a fragile state through operations targeting order based on multilateralism; become the Union's first coherent strategy to identify police and security management, the rule of law, civilian t 0VUMJOJOH UIF QPMJDZ JNQMJDB- and respond to EU-wide security concerns. administration, and monitoring. Such assistance helps tions for Europe to become ESDP affords EU Member States a broad range of options the state to recover enough to deliver a secure and safe more active, more capable, and environment, a reliable, trustworthy police force and more coherent—the EU is a for managing crises as well as an enhanced ability to act judiciary, and a competent government administration. global player and must share the rapidly and collectively in the face of security threats. responsibility for global security ESDP missions include humanitarian and rescue opera- Q Police operations can entail advice, assistance, and building a better world. tions, peacekeeping and peacemaking, and the use of training, and even substituting for local police combat forces in crisis management. Since 2003, the EU forces. EU Member States can provide roughly has carried out more than 20 ESDP operations—includ- 6,000 police officers, of whom 25 percent can be ing military and police missions, rule of law missions, deployed in less than 30 days. border management operations, and civilian-military Q Strengthening the rule of law with a properly support actions—in Europe, Africa, and Asia. functioning judicial and penal system necessarily backs up the work of the police forces. Member ESDP on the Ground: how it works. States contribute more than 600 officers for these missions. Military Crisis Management Operations do not depend upon a standing EU army but rather on troops Q A pool of more than 550 European civil administration experts can be deployed for civilian drawn from dedicated national forces. The initial goal administration missions, at short notice, was for Member States to be able to cooperatively if necessary. deploy a force of up to 60,000 within 60 days, and Q Member States have committed more than 500 sustain the deployment for up to one year. personnel for monitoring missions, which To address the current and future need for more rapid contribute to conflict prevention and deterrence deployments, the EU augmented its military capabili- and enhance EU visibility on the ground.

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Ensuring Free and Fair Elections: EU Election Assistance and Observation Missions

Credible and fair elections are vital to democracy, When there is no EU EOM, and the European the rule of law, and respect for human rights—all Parliament decides to send an observation mission, elements that help keep the peace. Genuine elections the observation team participates independently (or are an essential basis for sustainable development in cooperation with the relevant international organi- and a functioning democracy. Election observers zations), as it did for the parliamentary elections in deter fraud and violence and build confidence in the Kosovo in 2007. electoral process among political contestants, civil society, and the wider electorate. Election Observation Missions on the Ground Even the United States government, in the wake of the Pakistan contested 2000 presidential election, requested and . In February 2008, an EU EOM team was received an election observation mission from the present for the national and provincial assembly Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe elections in Pakistan. Led by Michael Gahler, Member "Over the last decade Cambodia has (OSCE) to ensure that the 2004 elections were free, fair, of the European Parliament (MEP), the EOM taken many important steps toward concluded that the elections represented a plural- and conducted according to widely accepted standards. democracy and in particular in the When a democracy as well-established as the U.S. can istic process in which a broad range of views were field of human rights. Nevertheless, benefit from election observers, it is no wonder that expressed. The public demonstrated increased public fledgling democracies increasingly count on impartial confidence in the polling process, in comparison to it is still a country in a post-conflict observers like the EU to monitor their electoral process. previous elections, and the media and civil society situation and more work remains to provided greater scrutiny of the electoral process. Like the OSCE, the EU is actively involved in election be done. Therefore, the EU has been assistance and observation missions worldwide. Since However, abuse of state resources and bias in the state and will remain actively engaged media favored the former ruling parties. As a result, 2000, more than 60 EU election observation missions in supporting Cambodia in a wide (EOMs) and 10 election assistance missions have been the overall process fell short of a number of interna- array of areas including education, deployed to almost every continent, except the OSCE tional standards for genuine democratic elections. judicial reform, fighting corruption, region, where the OSCE's Office for Democratic Cambodia. An EU EOM was present in Cambodia for Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) takes the the July 2008 National Assembly elections. Headed by and increasing transparency within lead. Both organizations adhere to accepted inter- Martin Callanan, MEP, the mission concluded that the the government." national standards for elections and the democratic conduct of these elections showed a marked improve- process, and coordinate closely with other groups ment over previous ones, but fell short in a number —Benita Ferrero-Waldner, EU Commissioner for External involved in similar activities. of key international standards. There was a lack of Relations and Neighborhood Policy The EU has deployed election observation missions, confidence in the impartiality of election authorities; often headed by a member of the European Parliament, widespread use of state resources marked the campaign throughout Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin period; media access was difficult for opposition America, and closer to home in the Western Balkans. parties; and civic education favored the ruling party. Authorization for an EU election observation mission requires an invitation from the host country's govern- Election Assistance involves technical or material support for the electoral process, including ment or election authorities and is predicated upon provision of voting material and equipment, help with voter registration, general input to the additional conditions being met in the country national electoral body, or advice on establishing a legal framework for the election. holding the election, notably: Election Observation is the political complement to election assistance and aims to legiti- Q Universal adult suffrage; mize and enhance public confidence in the electoral process, deter fraud, strengthen respect Q Political parties and individual candidates must for human rights, and contribute to the resolution of conflict. Observers scrutinize the be granted their legitimate right to participate in ability of political parties to participate freely and be heard during the electoral process, the election; access to the media for candidates, voter education, and overall security as it relates to Q Freedom of movement, assembly, and expression citizens' participation in the process. must be safeguarded, including public opposition to the incumbent government; EU election observation also involves an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of an Q Candidates must have reasonable access to electoral process and the presentation of recommendations that help determine appropriate the media. post-election assistance.

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ESDP Missions around the World

Military Operations—Ensuring Stability Civilian Missions—Police, Rule of Law, and Security Border Management, Monitoring 1 EUFOR Concordia | former Yugoslav Republic Police Missions of Macedonia (fYROM) | 2003 | 350 Troops 9 EUPM Bosnia and Herzegovina | Since 2003 Supported the implementation of the August 2001 Ohrid Aims to establish a sustainable, professional, and Framework Agreement ending hostilities between armed multi-ethnic police service in BiH through mentoring, ethnic Albanian groups and fYROM security forces. monitoring, and inspection, with a particular focus on 2 EUFOR Artemis | Democratic Republic of Congo police reform and fighting organized crime. | 2003 | 1,800 Troops 10 EUPM Proxima | former Yugoslav Republic of Helped the UN Mission in DR Congo (MONUC) Macedonia (fYROM) | 2004–2005 EU High Representative for stabilize the security conditions and improve the Common Foreign and Security Supported fYROM's development of an efficient and humanitarian situation in Bunia. Policy Javier Solana meets professional police service through monitoring and with peacekeepers in Chad. 3 EUFOR Althea | Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) | advising at the central, regional, sub-regional, and Since 2004 | 2,500 Troops police station level. Ensures compliance with the 1995 Dayton Peace 11 EUPAT | former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Accords, provides deterrence against future conflict, (fYROM) | 2006 and enhances security and public safety. Succeeded Proxima, with a special focus on border "The linking of civilian and military 4 EUFOR DR Congo | 2006 | 2,300 Troops police, public peace, order, accountability, and the fight elements, at both the conceptual Assisted the UN Mission in DR Congo (MONUC) against corruption and organized crime. in securing the region during the historic electoral and operational level, is probably 12 EUPOL Kinshasa | DR Congo | 2005–2007 process in 2006. our most important contribution to Strengthened the management capacities of the 5 EUFOR Chad/Central African Republic (CAR) | Integrated Police Unit through training and partici- conflict resolution. All are concerned 2008–2009 | 3,700 Troops pation in a joint think tank on the reform and with conflict prevention, resolution, Contributes to a wider international and multi-dimen- reorganization of the National Congolese Police. sion presence under UN auspices in response to the and stabilization." 13 EUPOL DR Congo | Since 2007 Darfur crisis. Javier Solana, Building on the Kinshasa mission, assists the Congolese EU High Representative for Common police in reform efforts, and supports all its possible Foreign and Security Policy Mixed Civilian/Military Operations for interactions with the judicial system. Security Sector Reform 14 6 EU Support for African Union Mission in EUPOL COPPS | Palestinian Territories | Darfur/Sudan | 2005–2007 Since 2006 Established a civilian-military action to support the Helps improve the enforcement capacity of the AU's enhanced mission to Darfur/Sudan, including Palestinian Civil Police through advice, mentoring, provision of equipment and assets, planning and techni- and support for immediate operational priorities and cal assistance, training of African troops and police, longer-term transformational change. and help with tactical and strategic transportation. 15 EUPOL Afghanistan | Since 2007

7 EUSEC DR Congo | 2005–2009 Establishes sustainable and effective civil policing Provides advice and assistance to the Congolese security arrangements to ensure appropriate interaction with authorities, while promoting policies compatible with the wider Afghan criminal justice system, including human rights, international humanitarian law, democratic strategies for criminal investigation, national training, standards and good governance, and the rule of law. and border management. Rule of Law Missions 8 EU SSR Guinea-Bissau | 2008 Provides advice and assistance to the local authorities 16 EUJUST THEMIS | Georgia | 2004–2005 to help create the conditions for implementation of the Supported Georgian authorities in addressing National Security Sector Reform Strategy. urgent challenges in the criminal justice system and

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assisted the government in developing a coordinated Monitoring Missions approach to the reform process that conformed to 21 AMM Monitoring Mission | Aceh, Indonesia | international standards. 2005–2006 17 EUJUST LEX | Iraq | Since 2005 In coordination with Norway, Switzerland, and Provides professional development opportunities for contributing countries of ASEAN, monitored the senior Iraqi officials from the criminal justice system, implementation of various aspects of the peace agree- to foster confidence, mutual respect, and operational ment reached between the Indonesian government and cooperation between officials with the Iraqi police, the Free Aceh Movement. judiciary, and prison system.

18 EULEX Kosovo | Deploying during the second half of 2008 Q&A with Lieutenant-General Pat Nash, Operational Commander Helps Kosovo achieve a strong independent multi- of the EU Force in Chad/CAR ethnic justice system and police and customs service, with a particular focus on protection of minority Q. Why is Europe acting and why now? on UN Security Council Resolution 1778 communities and the fight against corruption and What are the specific EU interests in (2007), and is aimed at contributing to a organized crime, by monitoring, mentoring, and this area? general improvement in security, creating advising on all areas related to the rule of law. A. Stabilization of the Darfur region is an a safe and secure environment in eastern Border Management Missions important objective for Europe. Security Chad and in northeastern CAR. This will is a precondition for development, and allow for humanitarian aid to be deliv- 19 EUBAM | Moldova and Ukraine | 2005–2009 the military operation will reinforce ered, and provide for the safety of the UN's Reinforces the capacity of Moldovan and Ukrainian and complement other EU initiatives, MINURCAT (United Nations Mission in the officials to carry out effective border and customs political, economical, and diplomatic, in Central African Republic and Chad) police controls and border surveillance. the region. mission and the return of internally displaced 20 EUBAM RAFAH | Gaza | Since 2005 (temporar- persons. Resolution 1778 was unanimously Q. What is the goal of the military opera- ily suspended in the wake of the Hamas takeover in approved and authorizes "all necessary tion in Chad/CAR? the Gaza Strip) measures" to achieve the mandated tasks. A. My task is to translate diplomatic policy Monitors the operations of the Rafah border crossing into military action; the operation is based — EDSP News, July 2008 point in Gaza and builds confidence between the government of Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

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Peacekeeping Close to Home: Paving the Way to EU Membership in the Western Balkans

"In failed states, military instruments It is no accident that the EU's earliest peacekeep- According to Javier Solana, the EU's High may be needed to restore order, ing activities were in Europe's own backyard, in the Representative for Common Foreign and Security Western Balkans. When war broke out in the former Policy, "As the main threat to stability is no longer humanitarian means to tackle the Yugoslavia, the EU—without a formalized inter- armed conflict but criminality, the emphasis of our immediate crisis. Regional conflicts vention capacity—tried unsuccessfully to broker a support must be police and not military." need political solutions, but military diplomatic settlement but could only intervene as part The 175-member Proxima mission monitored, of UN peacekeeping efforts and subsequently, under assets and effective policing may mentored, and advised the country's police on fighting U.S. leadership, as part of a NATO force. be needed in the post conflict organized crime and promoting European policing phase. Economic instruments serve In response to its inability to act as decisively as standards. When Proxima concluded in late 2005, an it had hoped to do, the EU pushed forward with EU Police Advisory Team (EUPAT) remained for a reconstruction, and civilian crisis its Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), further six months to bolster the development of an management helps restore civil European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP), and efficient and professional police service. government. The European Union is European Security Strategy (ESS), which paved the particularly well equipped to respond way for a unified and effective EU presence on the Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) world stage. to such multi-faceted situations." The Dayton Peace Agreement successfully ended Regional conflicts and state failures are among the the Bosnian war after three and a half years of fratri- —European Security Strategy, cidal ethnic killing. However, as a study by the EU's 2003 key threats to global security identified by the ESS. The EU and its Member States have actively helped Institute for Security Studies notes, the BiH state was contain these threats in the Western Balkans, and the left extremely weak and would not have survived without substantial international commitment over "We are here to help establish the rule EU has offered the countries the prospect of membership contingent upon political and economic reforms, the next decade. of law, so that we can help protect along with their willingness to conform to EU law and Since 2003, the EU has been the primary international people and guarantee freedom of policy and to take on the obligations of membership. peacekeeper/peace builder in BiH, and the potential movement. We are here to help provide The EU's "gravitational pull" has proved to be the now exists to turn Bosnia into a sustainable multi- fair and impartial access to justice for ultimate conflict prevention strategy. Today, the Balkans ethnic democracy. The EU's integrated approach everybody and to make sure the rights are an excellent example of the EU's commitment to toward Bosnia combines a multi-dimensional ESDP presence on the ground with the "carrot" of progres- of everybody will be respected." maintaining peace—to building a secure, prosperous, and democratic Balkan region as an essential element sive European integration. —Yves de Kermabon, head of the of a Europe that is whole, free, and at peace. The EU launched the EUFOR Althea military opera- EULEX mission in Kosovo tion in BiH in December 2004, deploying 7,000 troops The former Yugoslav Republic of to ensure continued compliance with the Dayton peace Macedonia (fYROM) accords, contribute to a safe and secure environment The EU launched its first military peacekeeping in BiH, and support the authorities in their fight operation under ESDP—Concordia—on March 31, against organized crime. EUFOR Althea took over 2003, at the explicit request of the fYROM govern- from a NATO operation and uses NATO's assets and ment. The aim was to contribute to a stable, secure capabilities to carry out its mission under a permanent environment, and to support the implementation of EU-NATO arrangement known as "Berlin Plus." the August 2001 Ohrid Framework Agreement, which While improved security conditions have led to a force ended hostilities between armed ethnic Albanian reduction to roughly 2,500 troops (backed by "over the groups and the country's security forces. horizon" reserves) consisting of personnel from 24 EU Taking over from NATO, Concordia's 250 lightly-armed Member States and five non-EU countries (Albania, military personnel helped fYROM become a peaceful Chile, fYROM, Switzerland, and Turkey), EUFOR and democratic country, where an international Althea is ongoing and will remain as long as necessary. security presence is no longer needed. Concordia was The EUPM—the EU's very first ESDP mission—is completed on December 15, 2003, and was succeeded an ongoing police mission in BiH that employs best by an EU-led police mission, Proxima. European and international practices to establish a sustainable, professional, and multi-ethnic police

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service in BiH. Launched in 2003 at the request of the BiH government, EUPM upgrades the skills of officers throughout the country and equips the police force to fight organized crime. It also plays a key role in police reform. Achievements to date include:

Q Transformation of the State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA) into an operational police agency with enhanced executive powers to fight organized crime; EU police mission in Sarajevo Q Development of other state-level institutions, particularly the Ministry of Security and the Border Police; and Association Process, helps drive through reforms Q Local ownership of the police reform process that strengthen institutions, develop the economy, and The Road to EU through establishment of the Police Steering adopt European standards. The EU is the largest donor Membership for the Board, co-chaired by EUPM and local authorities; to Kosovo (nearly €2 billion to date), and in the next Western Balkans Q Progress in implementing the police reform with three years (2009-2011), EU commitments to Kosovo Because the future of the Western the mission playing a key advisory role. will exceed an additional €1.2 billion. Balkan nations lies firmly in Kosovo The office of the EU Special Representative supports Europe, the EU has offered the Kosovo's government during the political process prospect of membership to Albania, When Kosovo unilaterally declared its independence leading to European integration; provides overall coordi- Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, February 17, 2008, it remained the prerogative of nation for the combined EU presence in the country; the former Yugoslav Republic of individual EU Member States to determine their and contributes to Kosovo's development of respect for Macedonia (fYROM), Montenegro, relations with Kosovo, based on national practice human rights and fundamental freedoms. The EUSR Serbia, and Kosovo. and international law. Whether or not an EU country also works closely with the transitional administration recognizes the newly independent government has The Stabilization and Association of the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). little bearing on the dedicated EU drive to help Process (SAp) is the policy through guarantee peace and stability in Kosovo and the wider The third body, the European Union's Rule of Law which the EU provides political, Western Balkan region. Mission in Kosovo (EULEX) is the largest civilian practical, and financial support to mission ever launched under ESDP. Its task is to assist potential Member States, subject The EU has been providing significant support to the Kosovo authorities in implementing the rule of law, to countries meeting conditions Kosovo since 1999, when the UN Security Council particularly by helping develop an independent and including democratic and economic authorized a civilian and military presence there multi-ethnic justice system and police and customs reform, respect for human and under UN authority. The international community service, and ensuring that these institutions are free minority rights, refugee return, divided up specific responsibilities: the UN (civil from political interference and adhere to internation- regional cooperation, and good administration), the EU (reconstruction), the UN ally-recognized standards and best practices. neighborly relations. High Commissioner for Refugees (humanitarian aid), and the OSCE (institution building). By July 2008, EULEX had deployed 300 people, with The SAp includes Stabilization full operational capacity anticipated by late fall. Fully and Association Agreements Present in Kosovo since June 1999, the UN-mandated, deployed, EULEX will consist of roughly 1,900 interna- (SAA)—contractual agreements NATO-led KFOR peacekeeping force (currently tional police officers, judges, prosecutors, and customs tailored to and concluded with each 15,900 troops) has been crucial in maintaining officials, supported by around 1,100 local staff. Initially country once sufficient reform has security in support of wider international efforts to operating under the auspices of UNMIK, EULEX been accomplished. All but Kosovo build peace and stability. EU Member States provide was established for 28 months, until June 15, 2010. have signed SAAs, and Croatia and more than 75 percent of the KFOR personnel. In addition to EU Member State personnel, Norway, fYROM are already official candi- Renewed EU efforts in Kosovo build on earlier accom- Switzerland, Turkey, and the U.S. have indicated that date countries. plishments and include three main EU bodies operating they will contribute to the mission. in the country. The European Commission Liaison Office, in place since 2004, supports the Stabilization

| eufocus 7 | Special Advertising Supplement

EU Peacekeeping in the International Context

United Nations EU Relations with Regional Actors: The EU approach to peacekeeping is closely modeled Keeping the Peace on that of the UN, particularly as it has conformed to the changing nature of conflict that is less about North Atlantic Treaty Organization sovereign borders and more about human suffering. NATO and the EU share common strategic interests and frequently partner to prevent and resolve In 1999, former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan crises and armed conflicts in Europe and beyond. posed an important question: "If humanitarian interven- Since the signing of the landmark “NATO-EU tion is, indeed, an unacceptable assault on sovereignty, Declaration on ESDP” in 2002, which paved the how should we respond to a Rwanda, to a Srebrenica—to UN peacekeepers way for the “Berlin Plus” arrangements that form gross and systematic violations of human rights that the basis for practical work in crisis management affect every precept of our common humanity?" between the two organizations, cooperation has "The European Union has formed An independent report ("Responsibility to Protect") increased dramatically. Twenty-one EU Member a partnership with the UN to presented to the UN suggests that sovereign states States are also members of NATO. have a responsibility to protect their own citizens work together in the area of crisis African Union from avoidable catastrophe—from mass murder, management…From the Balkans to the In 2007, the EU and the African Union (AU) adopted rape, and starvation—but when they are unwilling the Joint Africa-EU Strategy and an action plan involv- Middle East, from Africa to Asia, the or unable to do so, that responsibility must be borne ing eight partnerships in areas including peace and EU and the UN are working effectively by the broader community of states. security, democratic governance, and human rights. together on the ground under some of With its universal mandate and legitimacy, the UN The new intercontinental agreement aims to establish is uniquely placed to advance global solutions to the most difficult circumstances." a robust peace and security architecture in Africa; common challenges. Since the end of the Cold War —Javier Solana, promote good governance and human rights; and and the ensuing explosion of local crises and conflicts, EU High Representative for Common create opportunities for shaping global governance Foreign and Security Policy UN peacekeeping missions have more than doubled in an open and multilateral framework. in number compared to the organization's first forty years, and the EU has followed the UN lead. Since 2003, the EU has also managed the African Peace Facility (APF), designed to provide the AU and other Over the past five years, the EU has significantly regional organizations with the resources to mount increased its operational contribution to interna- effective peacemaking and peacekeeping operations. tional crisis management. Through autonomous From its start through 2010, the EU is providing more and UN Security Council-mandated ESDP opera- EU Focus is published bi-monthly than €550 million in funding for the APF. by the Delegation of the European tions in locales such as the Democratic Republic Commission to the United States. of Congo, Chad/Central African Republic, and the Anthony Smallwood Western Balkans, the EU helps lessen the burden on Spokesman and Head of Press UN peacekeeping capacities that are stretched close & Public Diplomacy On the Web Editor-in-Chief to the limit. EU Common Foreign and Security Policy Stacy Hope According to the European Security Strategy, http://ec.europa.eu/external_relations/cfsp/intro Editor "Strengthening the United Nations, equipping it to Melinda Stevenson fulfill its responsibilities and to act effectively, is a European Security and Defense Policy Writer/Assistant Editor European priority." In addition to its on-the-ground http://www.consilium.europa.eu/esdp ISSN: 1830-5067 presence through ESDP operations, the EU is one of Election Observation Catalogue No.: IQ-AA-08-06-EN-C the most significant donors to UN operations, funding http://ec.europa.eu/external_relations/ Delegation of the European almost 40 percent of the UN budget, 20 percent of UN human_rights/intro Commission to the United States peacekeeping operations, and approximately half of 2300 M Street, NW Western Balkans and Enlargement Process UN member states' contributions to the organiza- Washington, DC 20037 http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement 202.862.9500 tion's funds and programs.

www.eurunion.org email: [email protected] For further information: http://www.eurunion.org/eufocus

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Difficult Transitions Foreign Policy Troubles at the Outset of Presidential Power Kurt M. Campbell & James B. Steinberg 225 pp., cloth, 978-0-8157-1340-1, $26.95 The Search for al Qaeda Its Leadership, Ideology, and Future Bruce Riedel A Saban Center book 180 pp., cloth, 978-0-8157-7414-3, $26.95 Winning Turkey How America, Europe, and Turkey Can Revive a Fading Partnership Philip H. Gordon & Omer Taspinar Afterword by Soli Ozel 125 pp., paper, 978-0-8157-3215-0, $18.95 Axis of Convenience Moscow, Beijing, and the New Geopolitics Bobo Lo Copublished with Chatham House 300 pp., cloth, 978-0-8157-5340-7, $32.95 Global Development 2.0 Can Philanthropists, the Public, and the Poor Make Poverty History? G_fe\1 /''$,*.$,+/. fi +('$,(-$-0,- =Xo1 +('$,(-$-00/ Lael Brainard & Derek Chollet, eds. 8mX`cXYc\ Xk pfli cfZXc Yffbjkfi\ fi fi[\i fecè\ Xk 150 pp., paper, 978-0-8157-1393-7, $22.95 nnn%Yiffbè^j%\[l&gi\jj countries. Zara, which is responsible for two thirds of the company’s revenue, attributes its success largely to its revolution of the IN retail timeline. Typ- ically, stores like the Gap and J. Crew BOX order most of their styles six months in advance. By con- Fashion Forward trast, Zara creates more than half its hen Inditex, the parent company stock in season, of Spanish retailer Zara, over- when the company Dressed to kill the competition: Zara delivers fashion at warp speed. tookW the Gap in sales earlier this year, can react to current it won the title of world’s largest fashion whims. It’s known as fast fash- distinctive local supply chain. Whereas clothing retailer. It’s an improbable ion. “Seeing an item in a disco in Tokyo most global retailers outsource the bulk achievement for Inditex, which has to putting it in a [Zara] window in of their production to Asia, Zara pro- utterly defied retail orthodoxy since Milan takes 15 to 30 days,” says José duces most of its styles close to home— the first Zara store opened its doors in Luis Nueno, professor of marketing at in Morocco, Portugal, Spain, and northwest Spain in 1975. Its unique the iese Business School in Barcelona. Turkey—allowing its biggest European business model—which uses little to At its fastest, the company can send its stores to receive shipments practically no advertising, sends clothes from the designers to a Madonna concert one overnight. The company has been able drawing board to the store rack in night, says Nueno, and have the singer’s to “adapt the product to market ... mere days, and introduces an astound- styles “in the windows earlier than the and [to] the unpredictability of ing 22,000 product lines each year next concert.” With that kind of turn- demand,” says Tony Shiret, a retail (most retail giants don’t break the low around time, Zara won’t make any analyst at Credit Suisse. “They’ve thousands)—has made Zara the envy money, but “it’s a psychological war changed the way people buy in of the high street. with the competition,” says Nueno. “It Europe.” And with the company setting Last year, Inditex sold $13.9 billion in hurts the [competition’s] morale.” its sights on expanding its footprint in clothing—15 percent more than in The ability to deliver high fashion at Asia and the United States, there may 2006—in nearly 4,000 stores in 70 lightning speed stems from the company’s be little reason to mind the Gap.

353 The Globalization of MARTYRDOM 104 Egypt Laos SyriaSyria

Suicide terrorism has truly gone global. According to data compiled by Assaf Moghadam, a Italy SomaliaSomolia

terrorism expert at West Point’s Combating Terrorism Center, not only have the number of Uzbekistan Moldova suicide attacks around the world reached unprecedented heights in recent years, but the terror 127 Iraq Serbia tactic has spread to the far corners of the Earth with deadly effect. Algeria 71 Indonesia Iraq SomaliaSomolia 54 Tunisia Afghanistan Afghanistan Iraq Key: 37 AfghanistanAfghanistan Finland Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Afghanistan 0 # of suicide attacks worldwide China UnitedUnited States Indonesia China China China Country afflicted 20 16 YemenYemen Saudi Arabia China Russia Yemen Yemen Tanzania Turkey 11 Turkey Tanzania RussiaRussia Russia Yemen Turkey Russia PanamaPanama Pakistan Kenya India Turkey Russia Pakistan Pakistan Turkey

32Israel Israel Turkey Pakistan Israel Kenya India India Pakistan Lebanon Argentina Argentina Lebanon Israel Israel India Pakistan Israel Israel Israel

Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Israel Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2001 2002 2004 2006 2008* *Through August 21 CORBIS

28 Foreign Policy This Is Your Building a brighter, brainier army certainly isn’t the only goal. The U.S. You Can No Brain on War military is also interested in applications that impair its enemies’ performance. Longer Argue... ould pills one day replace bullets These could range from neural-imaging …that immigrants vote more often than in an army’s arsenal? It might technologies that tell interrogators when native-born U.S. citizens. soundC like science fiction, but thanks a prisoner is lying, to aerosols that to new advances in pharmaceuticals destroy an adversary’s will to fight or and neuroscience, the next genera- drugs that alter their moods, even tion of conflict may indeed move increasing their trust as they are attacked. from the battlefield to the brain. And when it comes to laying the That’s according to a recent report groundwork for this future mind war- commissioned by the U.S. Defense fare, it’s the for-profit pharmaceutical Intelligence Agency to map the future sector that often conducts the necessary of cognitive warfare. research. Aging baby boomers in the Combat in years to come, accord- United States are driving “a growing ing to the report, will be dramatically market for cognitive enhancers” that influenced by breakthroughs in neuro- can be adapted for military purposes, science that can be adapted for defense says Diane Griffin, a professor of micro- purposes. These developments might biology at Johns Hopkins University involve improving a soldier’s ability to who also contributed to the report. process information with chemicals Unfortunately, lax rules about human NATIVE BORN that alter brain chemistry or comput- experimentation in other countries could FOREIGN BORN er hardware that interfaces directly mean that advances abroad might “par- with the brain. “There’s the potential to allel or even outstrip the . . . work being It might seem intuitive that people who not only bring someone up to a certain done in the West,” according to the study. go through the process of becoming U.S. level of function, but actually enhance The authors single out China and Iran as citizens will vote in greater proportions their function, make them smarter or potential foes in this brave new war, with than those born with the right. Not so. Naturalized citizens vote at lower rates faster than they would be otherwise,” active programs in advanced neuro- than native-born citizens, and they do says Jonathan Moreno, an expert on science and keen state interests in military not vote more frequently over time, neuroscience and warfare at the Cen- applications. On the battlefield, it seems, even as they become assimilated into ter for American Progress who worked today’s firepower might not stand a the U.S. population. on the report. chance against tomorrow’s brainpower. Epiphanies: Garry Kasparov

I WAS ASKED at the press conference after a FOR MANY RUSSIANS, millions and millions of the school with kids and women—for me, that tournament I won in 1997 or 1998, ‘What them, 1991 was a disaster. Not that they had was the final call. else is left for you in the world of chess?’ any illusions about the Soviet Union, but they And I said that I have a son, who was born wanted change, they wanted democracy, they YOU SHOULD NOT BE MISTAKEN by the nice in 1996, and I want him to see his father win wanted freedom, they wanted better lives, and suits, the jets, the luxury yachts. [Putin and the a big chess tournament. At the end of 2004, instead they got a lot of horsesh*t. oligarchs] are different and they will always hate I played the Russian national championship. you. The question is whether they will mix this [My son] was already 8, and I won very I BECAME GRADUALLY, NOT EVEN ANGRY, hate with fear or with contempt. So far, the latter. convincingly. At the but ashamed at the events in my country. I closing ceremony, recognized that I had a very tough choice: fight [THE OPPOSITION IN RUSSIA] has no long-term I got my gold this regime or leave myy country. Because seeing strategy. We are struggling to survive day to day. medal and put this bunch of criminalss destroying the future of it around his my country and doing nnothing, I couldn’t bear it. I REMEMBER one of the guards followed me to the neck. And roof [of the jail] where I was walking, and he asked that was it. THE FINAL MOMENT tthat shaped this decision me, ‘How is it that a man of great glory like you was the Beslan [schoool massacre]. After I saw has ended up in jail?’ And I said, ‘In Russia, people the tragedy at Beslan, I recognized that it was are in jail for two things: for murder or for truth.’ coldblooded murder, prremeditated by Putin and his gang. The facct that the Kremlin, with Garry Kasparov, a chess grandmaster, is a no hesitationn, ordered to burn down democracy activist in Russia.

For More Online Read more of Kasparov’s Epiphanies, like what he thinks could ruin Putin, at ForeignPolicy.com/extras/kasparov.

DMITRY KOSTYUKOV/AFP/GETTY IMAGES [ ]

November | December 2008 29 [ In Box ]

Development’s the Brookings Institution and author of the study, explains Great Depression that U.S. aid is most prone to volatility because the funds f your paycheck fluctuated unpre- are discretionary at the exec- dictably from year to year, you’d utive level. “If [a U.S. admin- Iprobably have a hard time planning for istration] decide[s] they like the future. That’s exactly the predica- somebody, they can ramp up ment many countries that receive inter- aid very quickly, and if they national aid face. When Bono throws a decide they don’t like some- series of global concerts or a disaster Heavy burden: Aid shocks cause instability in poor nations. body, they cut it off very rap- strikes, aid can post a banner year. But idly,” says Kharas. when donations dry up due to unmet well off if they had received billions of One way to reduce volatility is for conditions or a U.S. dollar in free fall, the dollars less each year, as long as the countries to commit stable amounts of drop in official development assistance is flow of money had remained steady. aid over a multiyear time frame—say, often devastating to poor countries. Sharp swings in aid often lead to dra- $50 million a year for three years. Britain Just how painful are these shocks? A matic changes in poor countries’ fiscal already has multiyear financing in place, recent study of aid volatility during the spending. In Kenya, official develop- and the aid arm of the European Union past four decades finds that fluctua- ment assistance for the health sector is considering it. Bringing a little more tions in aid have produced income wavered from $91 million in 2000 to stability to the world’s most fragile coun- shocks in developing countries just as $17 million in 2002 to $147 million in tries seems like the least donors could do. large as and more frequent than those 2005 to $111 million in 2006. As a that developed countries experienced result of these swings, health clinics had FOR THE FIRST TIME during the two world wars and the to be closed and large numbers of doc- Great Depression, when gdp per capita tors and staff were laid off. plunged 15 percent or more. In fact, Some rich donors are guiltier than oth- One billion personal the study found that the unpredictabil- ers for the volatility. The United States is computers are in use ity of aid leads to an overall loss of 15 the most unpredictable donor, whereas around the world. to 20 percent of the total aid sent, mean- Scandinavian countries are the most con- ing countries would have been just as sistent. Homi Kharas, a senior fellow at

Are you a globalization junkie? Test your knowledge of global trends, economics, and politics with 8 questions about how the world works.

What percentage of Which country, after the United States and 1 NBA players were born 5 Britain, has the most troops in Iraq? outside the United States? Australia 8 percent Poland 16 percent South Korea 24 percent Which country has the highest proportion How many people have been put on trial 2 ofits population on Facebook? 6 before the International Criminal Court? CanaCanada Egypt France 0515

Which country has the most Which country is the largest owner of 3 journalists in jail? 7 U.S. federal government debt? China Britain China Japan Cuba Iran What is the most expensive street in the 8 world for property? In whwhich of these countries do academics earn the Avenue Princesse Grace, Monaco 4 highest income relative to the national average? Severn Road, Hong Kong Fifth Avenue, New York City China India South Africa For the answers, turn to page 92. TOP: ZOHRA BENSEMRA/REUTERS; MIDDLE:BOTTOM, ISTOCKPHOTO.COM CLOCKWISE FROM TOP LEFT: ISTOCKPHOTO.COM, ISTOCKPHOTO.COM, ISTOCKPHOTO.COM, ISTOCKPHOTO.COM, GETTY IMAGES

30 Foreign Policy

“All the great things are simple, and many can be expressed in a single word: freedom, justice, honor, duty, mercy, hope. ” —Sir Winston Churchill

www.elliott.gwu.edu THINK AGAIN The CatholicBy John L. Allen Jr. Church From the outside, the Vatican appears resistant to change and tone-deaf to scandal. But, in truth, the world’s oldest religious institution bears little resemblance to the mysterious church imagined by conspiracy theorists. Today, Catholicism is attracting millions of new and diverse followers who are embracing the church’s traditions of debate and independence as gospel.

“The Catholic Church Is Shrinking”

No. Whether it is the global shortage of priests, the century, from 1.9 million to 130 million. The Democratic empty pews in former Catholic strongholds, or the Republic of the Congo today has the same number of slew of sex abuse scandals, it might seem as though Catholics as Austria and Germany put together. India has the modern Catholic Church is in decline. In fact, the more Catholics than Canada and Ireland combined. church is in the midst of the greatest period of growth What’s happening is not that Catholicism is shrinking, in its 2,000-year history. The world’s Catholic popu- but rather, its demographic center of gravity is shift- lation grew from 266 million in 1900 to 1.1 billion ing. What was once a largely homogenous religion, in 2000, an increase of 314 percent. By comparison, concentrated in Europe and North America, is now a the world population last century grew by 263 per- truly universal faith. In 1900, just 25 percent of cent. The church didn’t just hitch a ride on the baby Catholics lived in the developing world; today that fig- boom; it successfully attracted new converts. ure is 66 percent and climbing. In a few decades, the Yes, Catholicism is getting smaller in Europe, and it new centers of theological thought will no longer be would be losing ground in the United States, too, were Paris and Milan, but Nairobi and Manila. it not for immigration, especially among Hispanics. A Today, fertility rates are falling across much of the recent Pew Forum study found that fully 10 percent of developing world, so it’s unlikely Catholicism can Americans are ex-Catholics. These declines, however, maintain the 20th century’s spectacular gains during the have been more than offset by growth in Africa, Asia, and next 100 years. In parts of Latin America, Africa, and Latin America. In sub-Saharan Africa alone, the number Asia, Catholicism is being outpaced by its competitors, of Catholics grew a staggering 6,700 percent in the past especially fast-growing evangelical and Pentecostal churches. Still, the single biggest challenge facing the John L. Allen Jr. is senior correspondent for the National Catholic Church is not coping with decline, but rather, Catholic Reporter and senior Vatican analyst for CNN. managing the transition to a multicultural faith.

32 Foreign Policy The church at a crossroads: The Vatican must strike an often uneasy balance between change and tradition.

“Catholicism Is Right Wing”

Only in part. It depends on your definition of Even the official positions of the church would “right wing,” and, for that matter, of the church. It’s true hardly draw a clean bill of health from secular con- that the institutional structures of Catholicism are servatives. The late Pope John Paul ii was the leading instinctively conservative. In the 19th century, Pope moral critic of both U.S.-led Gulf wars. Pope Benedict Gregory xvi actually blocked construction of railroads xvi has denounced the “false promise” of American- and gas lighting in the Papal States for fear of where style free market capitalism and has emerged as an elo- such “unnatural” innovations might lead. It’s also true quent environmentalist. Meanwhile, the Catholic that on controversial issues such as abortion, same- Church is officially anti-death penalty, anti-arms trade, sex marriage, and embryonic stem cell research, official pro-United Nations, and pro-immigrant—stances Catholic positions stand solidly with the cultural right. anathema to many on the right. Yet the church has always been more than its Bishops and theologians insist that, given the full hierarchy, and grass-roots sentiment is anything but range of Catholic social doctrine, the church isn’t com- uniform. The United States offers a case in point. patible with any secular alliance. John Carr, a veteran American Catholics were historically Democrats, staffer for the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, calls and despite aggressive efforts by conservatives since Catholicism “politically homeless.” In the nine U.S. the Reagan era to court them, there’s still a sizeable presidential elections between 1972 and 2004, a liberal Catholic constituency. As proof, most opin- majority of U.S. Catholics voted for a Republican in five ion polls taken in the run-up to the 2008 presiden- and a Democrat in four. Whether it’s a matter of official tial election showed Catholics evenly divided teaching or rank-and-file opinion, the Catholic Church

ALESSANDRA BENEDETTI/CORBIS between Barack Obama and John McCain. is hardly the American Republican Party at prayer.

November | December 2008 33 [ Think Again ]

“The Church Is Filthy Rich”

Not really, though it’s certainly not poor. Around the world, dioceses and parishes are some- Anyone who has ever stood in St. Peter’s Square in times large landowners, and the church operates a Rome and watched a prince of the church (the col- vast network of schools, hospitals, and social service loquial name for a Catholic cardinal) emerge from centers. That infrastructure can generate some a black Mercedes sporting Vatican license plates impressive-sounding numbers. In 2001, the annual could understandably find pleas of tough times revenue of Catholic programs in the United States hard to swallow. came to $102 billion. Yet most of these programs Yet the wealth of the Catholic Church is usually either barely break even or operate in the red, in part exaggerated. The Vatican, for example, is rumored because they often serve low-income and minority to be swimming in loot, but its annual budget is less populations. Outside Europe and the United States, than $400 million. For comparison, consider that most dioceses and parishes get by on shoestring bud- Harvard University’s is more than $3 billion. The gets, to say nothing of missionaries who often live in Vatican’s portfolio of stocks, bonds, and real estate desperate poverty in remote areas. comes to roughly $1 billion. For a slightly whim- Catholics—from the pope on down—routinely sical frame of reference, Forbes estimates that suggest that the church should adopt greater “sim- Oprah Winfrey, all by herself, is worth $2.5 billion. plicity,” and it’s eminently fair to expect any organi- The great artistic treasures of the Vatican, such as zation that demands justice for the poor to practice Michelangelo’s Pietà, are literally priceless; they’re what it preaches. Popular images of bags of cash listed on Vatican books at a value of 1 euro each stockpiled in the church basement, however, are mis- because they can never be sold or borrowed against. leading. They simply aren’t there.

“The Church Never Changes”

False. The reality isn’t that the church never changes, limbo, a special antechamber in the afterlife for but that it never admits to having changed. Catholics unbaptized babies. who have been around the block know that whenev- Apologists may argue that what changed in such er someone in authority begins a sentence with, “As the cases were the historical circumstances, not the under- church has always taught…,” some long-standing idea lying principles. But in any event, something impor- or practice is about to be turned on its head. tant gave way. Typically, mounting pressure from For example, the church once regarded lending below eventually erupts to cause a breakthrough, as money for interest as the sin of usury, which is not happened during the Second Vatican Council in the dogma today. Or consider that when popes were mid-1960s. In a flash, Mass was celebrated in ver- also civil rulers, they put criminals to death; visitors nacular languages rather than Latin, Catholicism to Rome can drop by the Criminology Museum to see went from being critical of religious liberty to a

a perfectly preserved papal guillotine, a gift from champion of human rights, and Protestant “heretics” Napoleon. Today, of course, the Catholic Church is became “separated brethren.”

a leader in global anti-death penalty campaigns. That’s not to suggest that everything is up for More recently, Pope Benedict xvi set aside belief in grabs. A future pope is not going to teach that Jesus [ didn’t exist, that he wasn’t the divine Son of God, or For More Online that the bread and wine used in the Catholic Mass The Vatican changes its mind from time to time. Read do not really become the body and blood of Christ. about the church’s five most drastic doctrinal reversals The Catholic story is always a blend of continuity and at: ForeignPolicy.com/extras/churchreversals. change. The hard part is anticipating what might [ change—and when.

34 Foreign Policy MASTER OF ARTS IN DIPLOMACY

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“The Vatican Is Cloaked in Secrecy”

Not quite. Actually, the Vatican is far less Latin Mass. By the time it appeared, however, the secretive than most other institutions with a global story was anticlimactic because the content of the rul- reach—the U.S. government, say, or Coca-Cola. ing had been leaked to the press months in advance The Vatican doesn’t collect imagery from spy and subjected to exhaustive scrutiny. satellites, and it’s not obsessed with protecting the The problem with the Vatican is less its secre- design of high-tech weapons. It has no trade cy than its utter singularity. It is unlike any other secrets, no R&D, and no sales plans to keep away institution one could encounter, with its own his- from prying eyes. As a result, far more of the tory, language, and rhythms. If you don’t know Vatican’s business is conducted in full public view the difference between Jesuit and Dominican views than outsiders might imagine. on grace in the 16th century, for example, or Nor is the Vatican very good at keeping secrets between a surplice and a surplus, you’re often even when it tries. It’s a bureaucracy, after all, full of going to find conversations inside the Vatican ter- opinionated, strong-willed people. Sooner or later, ribly hard to understand. Or, if you don’t know that most things leak out. (There is a famous saying that the under secretary in most offices is the person Rome is a city in which everything is a mystery, and who does the real work, it can be tough to follow nothing is a secret.) In the summer of 2007, Pope the bouncing ball of church business. The trick to Benedict xvi issued a long-awaited ruling giving figuring out the Vatican is mastering its culture. Do priests expanded permission for celebration of the old that, and the veil of secrecy usually lifts quickly.

“Catholicism Is Obsessed with Sex”

No, you are. Prior to the sexual revolution The fact of the matter is that teachings on sex and of the 1960s, most people would have found the gender are contested even within the church itself. idea that Catholicism is prudish to be deeply odd. Polls show that solid majorities of Catholics, at least The old rap on Catholics was that they were far in the United States, disagree with official church too given to the pleasures of the flesh, especially positions on matters such as contraception, in vitro sex and booze, in contrast with the more fertilization, and whether priests should be allowed abstemious Protestants. As the Catholic poet to marry. Narrower majorities favor the ordination Hilaire Belloc once wrote, “Wherever the of women to the priesthood and oppose outright Catholic sun doth shine, there’s always laughter bans on abortion. And while life issues will be a and good red wine.” When critics today blast major factor for many American Catholics as they Catholicism for its “puritanical” positions, one decide on a presidential candidate, social justice imagines actual Puritans, who despised the issues, such as assistance for struggling families and Church of Rome and its moral laxity, rolling over immigration reform, are often just as important. As in their graves. with most matters, Catholic opinion is far more Since the 1960s, however, Catholicism has been diverse—and tolerant—than is often understood. drawn into one public controversy after another on If the obsession with sex lies anywhere, it’s with the so-called pelvic issues—such as gay rights, gen- popular culture, not the church. During the first year der roles, the family, abortion, contraception, arti- of his papacy, Benedict xvi actually used the word ficial insemination, and other hotly debated points “Africa” four times more often than he did “sex,” yet of sexual ethics. Catholic teachings that once struck it was a lone Vatican document barring gays from the the average person as moderate or even permissive, priesthood that dominated news headlines. The inter- such as encouraging large families, have come to section of sex and religion simply sells well, and it is seem positively antiquated to most observers. not quite fair to blame the church for that.

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“The Church Is Ultra-Hierarchical”

Not really. Catholicism has a clear chain of ordered the archbishop of Milwaukee to halt the command, which makes it fairly unusual among renovation of his cathedral because it didn’t modern religions. (Ever ponder the question of approve of the design. The archbishop replied that who’s in charge of Judaism or Islam?) The church’s he was the one paying the contractors, so Rome Code of Canon Law assigns the pope “supreme, could mind its own business. full, immediate, and universal ordinary power.” Even within the Vatican, offices operate quite That hierarchical structure fuels perceptions that independently of one another. Sometimes Rome’s left Catholicism is run almost exclusively from the top hand really does not know, or does not approve of, down. In practice, however, Catholicism is actually what its right hand is doing. During the John Paul ii a rather loose, decentralized operation. years, for example, the pope’s own master of cere- The Roman Curia, the central administrative monies often designed papal Masses that ignored bureaucracy of the church, has a workforce of 2,700 changes from the Vatican’s office of liturgical policy. officials to manage the affairs of more than 1.1 bil- And anyone who has paid close attention to shifting lion Catholics. If the same ratio of bureaucrats to Vatican responses to the sex abuse crisis has likely citizens were applied to the U.S. government, around come away with an impression of internal incoherence 700 people would be on the federal payroll. In other rather than tight control from the top. words, the Vatican doesn’t have the tools to micro- The reality of the church is probably best manage except in the rarest of cases. This isn’t expressed by the old quip that Catholicism is “an Wal-Mart, where the temperature setting in stores absolute monarchy tempered by selective disobedi- thousands of miles apart is determined by a computer ence.” Behind the local independence and the shift- at corporate headquarters in Bentonville, Arkansas. ing responses to scandal, there is nearly always an Furthermore, Catholicism is not a massive hold- impressive degree of spirited debate. As the church ing corporation. The assets of dioceses around the grows more diverse, this tradition of dialogue and world belong not to the pope but to the bishops, deliberation will be even more critical to its future. and that can give them considerable autonomy in Popes and practices will change, but the bedrock of administrative matters. In 2001, for example, Rome the faith will likely remain strong and flexible.

[ Want to Know More? ]

For an authoritative look at the Vatican’s culture, read John L. Allen Jr.’s All the Pope’s Men (New York: Doubleday, 2004). His forthcoming The Future Church: How Ten Trends Are Revolutionizing the Catholic Church (New York: Doubleday, 2009) explores the issues that will rock the church in the coming years.

The classic Inside the Vatican: The Politics and Organization of the Catholic Church (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1996), by Jesuit priest and political scientist Thomas J. Reese, is an indispensable guide to the church’s traditions and modern bureaucracy. Philip Jenkins analyzes the global demographic shift affecting not just Catholicism but all Christian faiths, in The Next Christendom: The Coming of Global Christianity (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002).

Catholic Bishop Geoffrey Robinson spoke with Foreign Policy about his denunciation of the church after almost 25 years in “Talking Sex and Power in the Catholic Church” (ForeignPolicy.com, August 2008). R. Scott Appleby explains why future popes must reach out to the Islamic world and take a crash course in economics in “Job Description for the Next Pope” (Foreign Policy, January/February 2004). »For links to relevant Web sites, access to the FP Archive, and a comprehensive index of related Foreign Policy articles, go to ForeignPolicy.com.

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40 Foreign Policy November | December 2008 41

HardAmerica’s Sell

For more than half a century, the United States ensured that five Big Ideas shaped international politics. Now, as the Big Ideas of the 21st century are formed, just who will corner the new global market of ideology is anyone’s guess. One thing is certain, though: If the United States wants to remain a player, it’s going to have to refine its sales pitch.| By Bruce W. Jentleson and Steven Weber

lthough their presidencies had little These presidents basically had it right. For most in common, George H.W. Bush, Bill of the second half of the 20th century, five Big Clinton, and George W. Bush all Ideas shaped world politics: spoke about the world from essentially the same starting point. In a time of sole- 1) Peace is better than war. superpowerA dominance, most of the world had 2) Hegemony, at least the benign sort, seemingly come to understand that the utility of mil- is better than a balance of power. itary force was on the decline. Free markets were 3) Capitalism is better than socialism. ascendant, creating wealth and contributing to the 4) Democracy is better than dictatorship. growing sense that a wave of democratic transition 5) Western culture is better than all was inevitable. Mobile phones and the Internet the rest. were spreading elements of Western culture and behavior to a global population that was ready, On all five counts, the United States was widely seen FP even eager, to receive and assimilate them. as paragon and guarantor. American power brought peace through a combination of Cold War containment Bruce W. Jentleson is professor of public policy studies and and deterrence. A United Nations was constructed political science at Duke University. Steven Weber is professor largely according to American designs. American hege- of political science and director of the Institute of International mony brought relative security and laid the foundation

ILLUSTRATIONS BY SHOUT FOR Studies at the University of California, Berkeley. for progressively more open trade and capital markets.

November | December 2008 43 [ America’s Hard Sell ]

American capitalism taught the world how to create administration. Nor is it the case that our interna- unprecedented wealth. American democracy inspired tional institutions are simply in need of remodeling people around the world to change their relationships or refurbishment to reflect the shift in power and with political authority. And American culture became wealth across the globe. Rather, the rules have a magnet for the world’s youth. changed, and the biggest and most basic questions of Today, the prevailing consensus in the United world politics are open for debate once again. States is that these five Big Ideas still hold. A vari- Of course, peace is still better than war. Unless, ety of intellectual formulations have sprung up—the as some governments will profess, war is wielded as end of history, the democratic peace, the indispens- an instrument of national policy, as was the case with able nation, the Rome-like empire—which, despite the United States in Iraq, Russia in Georgia, Ethiopia their differences, share the core belief that these in Somalia, Israel in Lebanon, and others to come. fundamentals have not changed. Even the latest But does peace remain superior if states want to spate of books about the second or post-American prevent the killing of people in Darfur, end the world end up in the same place, accepting that the malign neglect in the aftermath of a natural disas- same five assumptions will still form the basis for the ter in Burma, or head off a pandemic incubating

present and future world order. within someone else’s borders? With authority more Unfortunately, they will not. The five Big Ideas of contested and power more diffuse, what are the

the past century are no longer the sound and sturdy rules for going to war and keeping the peace? guides they once were. The challenge runs far deeper And who makes them? Hegemony, benign or oth- than the bad atmospherics created by the Bush erwise, is no longer an option—not for the United [ States, not for China, not for anyone. A 21st-century Ask the Author version of a 19th-century multipolar world is hardly possible, either. There are too many players at too Have questions for Bruce Jentleson and Steven many tables for counting and balancing poles of power. Weber? Send them to [email protected] by Although some players still matter more than others, Dec. 1, and we’ll post their answers on Dec. 5 at more players matter more deeply than ever before. [ForeignPolicy.com/extras/jentlesonweber. Nonstate actors—from the Gates Foundation to

44 Foreign Policy Google to Bono—are autonomous global players THE MARKETPLACE OF IDEAS on the front lines of international affairs. Who In the United States, it is popular to declare war on holds sway over the decisions made in a world a problem. So, for example, American political lead- more networked than heirarchical? ers, whether liberal or conservative, consistently Capitalism decisively beat socialism. But it has appeal for a “war of ideas” to defeat international now split into distinctive and competing forms, with terrorism. The metaphor is crisp, actionable, and governments owning and directing large parts of the morally compelling. It’s also wrong. Ideas don’t economy in some of the most critical states and sec- fight wars, and any policy that follows from that for- tors. Take energy—where, in a radical reversal from mulation won’t work. Ideas don’t go to combat; just 15 years ago, national oil companies now own they vie for the commitment of individuals in an more than three quarters of the world’s known oil arena that is less like a battlefield and more like a reserves. Take finance—a supposed pillar of Ameri- marketplace. The United States is facing a global can strength, now bailed out and backstopped by U.S. competition of ideas, and the rules of engagement are government debt. Has the market come to need the much closer to those set out by Milton Friedman state as much as the state needs the market? than Carl von Clausewitz. Democracy has brought freer societies. But is it Who dominates in such a marketplace? To start, as effective in efficiently creating just and peaceful markets are places where leaders need followers ones? That China, a nondemocratic state, has had the more than the other way around. Presumptive lead- greatest success meeting the basic human needs of its ers don’t issue orders; they make offers. Eventually, people and pulling them out of poverty in the past 20 years speaks volumes to this point. It is now hardly an The U.S. must reenter the competition toanswer themost acceptance of repression to recognize the simple fact basic questions about howthe worldshouldbeordered. that in many societies political legitimacy is a function of performance, not just process. it is the followers who decide whose leadership they And while the most raw and visceral expressions find most attractive at that moment. Market lead- of anti-Americanism may very well subside when the ers don’t depend heavily on private deals and sub- Bush administration leaves office, the “be like us” era terfuge to hold their bargains in place; there’s too (about which some Americans will always wax nos- much transparency to offer inconsistent options to talgic) will never return. Modernization did not bring different constituencies. And market leaders don’t homogenization; culture and identity are powerful, ever relax or lose their edge because they know that enduring forces between and within societies. their competitors will be relentless. The foreign-policy community isn’t blind to these Put simply: In a marketplace of ideas, we offer questions—at least not when they are asked one at and they choose. One does not win a market- a time. In fact, the notion that each Big Idea is sub- place; one outcompetes for market share. And it ject to debate has become so mainstream that most doesn’t last unless you make it last. supposedly new contributions to the debate are real- It’s worth asking why it’s so hard for the Unit- ly just attempts to state more eloquently what are by ed States, a country that understands market com- now familiar arguments. But the challenges to the five petition in so many other respects, to countenance Big Ideas of the 20th century—when taken togeth- a global competition of ideas. It would appear that, er—create a different and much more difficult when it comes to international issues, the United reality. The United States has not confronted, either States prefers not to acknowledge it competes on an intellectually or politically, the profound consequences even playing field with others. of that reality. The 21st century will not be an ideo- It took almost the entire decade of the 1980s for logical rerun of the past 100 years. The United States the American economic and business elite to come must reenter the competition to answer the most to grips with what it meant to compete with Japan, fundamental questions about how the 21st-century in particular when it seemed to play the capitalism world should be ordered. Indeed, it has already and trade game by a different set of rules. For the begun. Welcome to the new age of ideology. United States, it was a long and hard learning curve,

November | December 2008 45 [ America’s Hard Sell ]

which along the way included many dysfunctional None of these alternatives is simply a retrograde policies and self-inflicted wounds through import version of liberalism, and none of them depends on quotas, talk of trade wars, and near panic over pur- naiveté or false consciousness on the part of those chases by Japanese investors of iconic real estate in who hold them. They are vibrant competitors in a New York and California. There was even a small global marketplace. avalanche of books demanding that the Japanese change their business practices, laws, and culture so that the competition would be more “fair”—that is, THE NEW ERA HAS ARRIVED played according to Washington’s rules. It would be best for the United States to get serious It took the decade of the 1990s to come to grips about how to compete most effectively in the bub- with similar kinds of geopolitical competition. Stuck bling, energetic, creative, and occasionally infuriat- for an embarrassingly long period in a peculiar ing marketplace of ideas that is contemporary glob- debate about the dynamics of “unipolarity,” Amer- al politics. To gain a solid footing, there are three ican policymakers fundamentally overestimated U.S. central rules that must be understood: control over international events. More important, they underestimated the capabilities and creativity 1) Ideology is now the most important, yet most of those whose interests really were at odds with uncertain and fastest-changing, component of their own. Lesser, even nonstate, powers might not national power. have been able to confront the United States directly, but they had obvious alternatives: to go nuclear, The new age of ideology remains an age of to go underground, to bypass American power with power. Consider, though, where the score card of their own initiatives, to disrupt whatever they could power can change most significantly. Military and in the U.S.-led plan for the world. Perhaps if the Unit- economic power are crucial, but they are also largely ed States recognized the reality of the competitive predictable. Even after Iraq and the current finan- environment in which we live—and thus under- cial crisis, the United States’ strengths in both areas stood the creative options others invent as they will only be somewhat eroded. These are “slow- develop their strategies for competing—it would burn” phenomena. But the ideological components have been easier, for example, for Washington to of power can change much more radically. The have seen the “red lights” flashing around al Qaeda in the summer of 2001. Everyone competes. Outside the UnitedStates, people no longer believe that Today, they compete around ideas as much as or more thealternative to Washington-led order is chaos. than anything else. The notion of a single sustainable model for national success—the American rate of change is faster for ideology because the bar- model—does not resonate with the majority of peo- riers to entry are so much lower. The costs of, say, ple on this planet. The 300 million Chinese who lift- building a navy are tremendous while the costs of ed themselves out of poverty in a single generation disseminating a new set of ideas about how the have a different narrative, one that emphasizes state world works are now trivial. control of economic growth at the expense of polit- In this fast-paced and unpredictable setting, the ical freedoms. The Russians subscribe to a narrative five Big Ideas of American ideology were never of “sovereign democracy,” which says an efficient immutable. Outside the United States, people no autocrat can bring economic recovery, stability, longer believe that the alternative to Washington-led basic security, and pride to a nation much more order is chaos. State-led economies that consciously quickly and effectively than any rulebound institu- rid themselves of democratic freedom are no longer tion. The hundreds of millions in Africa, Latin Amer- assumed incapable of producing great wealth. ica, and parts of Asia who experimented with free- Charismatic autocrats are no longer necessarily dom, democracy, and free enterprise but are poorer, believed to be corrupt and dysfunctional. The sicker, and more likely to die in violent conflict than optimal model for a just society, one that offers they were 30 years ago have their own narratives. dignity to people, is no longer synonymous with

46 Foreign Policy American democracy. The most fundamental questions of what counts for a legitimate order, progress, human dignity, and meaning are open—and the rest of the world has no fear about experimenting with alternatives.

2) Technology massive- ly multiplies soft power—particularly video technology, and particularly in the hands of nonstate actors.

The new marketplace of ideas is powered by technology. One of the most crucial changes is that governments and other “official” sources of information have lost their role as key bro- kers of credibility. The Internet radically boosts soft-power capability, while distributing 3) Each player represents a single ideology, so those capabilities more broadly. The power and “domestic values” and “international values” must distinction of a government’s voice is lost in the be consistent. competing chatter, and in some ways, it becomes the least compelling simply because it’s the least novel. The new marketplace of ideas is not bound by It’s not just voices that are engaged—or more borders. In the past, foreign-policymakers typically precisely, not just words competing against words. brushed off concerns that contradictory policies Images are now competing against images. People would be seen as hypocritical because pragmatic are visual creatures, and they tend to respond to decision-making warranted this necessary but man- videos and pictures on a much less rational and ageable cost. However, a presumptive leader can no much more visceral level. Al Qaeda’s recruiting longer claim the legitimacy of one principle or policy videos are set to rap music, and the emotional impact for people on one side of a border, while denying of cellphone photos showing monks being shot by the same to others on the other side. Everything is security forces is far more poignant than a govern- visible to everyone. If Americans want to make ment white paper or even a colorless text message. their own choices about family planning and con- Does anyone not remember the image of the hood- traception, they can’t deny foreign aid to coun- ed Abu Ghraib prisoner standing on a box with tries that give their citizens the same right. If wires connected to his arms? YouTube (and what- Moscow says that oil is a global commodity that ever follows it) will soon have greater global influ- anyone should be able to purchase openly on global ence over narratives about international events (if it markets, then it can’t undermine the rights of foreign doesn’t already) than any government information oil companies to invest fairly and transparently in source could hope to have. its energy assets.

November | December 2008 47 [ America’s Hard Sell ]

Consistency in policymaking is now a funda- World Bank and the International Monetary Fund mental necessity, not a luxury. And it’s constant, that guarantees by default an American president because the demands of soft power follow the 24/7 for the bank and a European managing director for news and argument cycle on the Internet. It’s harder the fund will end. The U.N. Security Council will to buy time and deceive others about ideology than expand. A new operational definition of multilateral- it is about almost anything else. Militarily weak ism will emerge that enhances the effectiveness of states have long built Potemkin villages to hood- action, while being candid about its limitations. The wink their adversaries about how capable they really United States could lead in this direction, but so are. There are no Potemkin villages for soft power. could many others, without the intellectual and emotional burdens of incumbency. The second area of competition will be a notion of PLAYING A NEW GREAT GAME a just society that balances individual rights and social The 21st-century global marketplace of ideas has its equity. It must make the provision for basic human own dynamic. As the Big Ideas of the 20th century seem needs—food, water, and health—an explicit and direct increasingly inadequate for meeting the challenges and component of social justice. In countries plagued with choices that define this new age of ideology, a new set mass poverty and endemic injustice, “freedom from” of leaders will compete to rise to the fore. And those is not enough; it also must be about the “capacity to.” successful players will be the states, companies, indi- People are looking not just to be protected from gov- viduals, and nongovernmental organizations that are ernment but also to be protected by government. That capable of articulating and implementing the new Big Ideas necessary for societal survival in the 21st century. Other international playershave theirown The four central areas of competition during at least strengths andshortcomings, but they will the next decade will be: mutuality, a just society, a compete with Americans on a level playing field. healthy planet, and societal heterogeneity. First, amid the proliferation of different forms of means that any ideology that overprivileges process— nationalism and other narrow self-interests, who will even democratic process—but fails to deliver on basic commit to the mutuality essential to a global era? The human needs will lose. Beijing understands this point, second half of the 20th century left a legacy of unbal- and so do some major global megaphilanthropies. anced bargains—often clearly favoring the United The third area is the health of the planet as a States—on issues such as nonproliferation and arms motivating vision that both inspires hope and provides control, intellectual property, agricultural trade, and the strategic direction. The environmental movement is right to use military force. Russia seems bent on reclaim- now a global phenomenon and no longer simply ing some of the Soviet Union’s position of power. Parts about the environment. It’s equally about security, of Africa and Latin America are open to the attractive economics, social stability, natural disasters, and terms of trade China offers but not simply to trading humanitarian crises. It is a long-term goal—the most Western dominance for Chinese. Indian pharmaceuti- vital legacy to be left to future generations. It is also cal firms seek asymmetric rights to distribute generic increasingly in the here and now, as the effects of drugs. Leadership will come in rebalancing such bar- global climate change begin to be felt and the critical gains. They not only hurt others substantively; they junctures for policy action grow nearer. There are no grate symbolically. In a global age, it is more essential more “externalities”; the system no longer has that than ever to have a credible claim that one uses power kind of slack. A healthy planet is the ultimate global more for shared benefits than selfish interests. public good. Systems of wealth creation that ignore Mutuality also requires greater sharing of decision- pollution won’t attract and hold followers for long. making responsibilities around global issues. Some Brussels understands this point, and, increasingly, so changes will be obvious, including the reform of the do many large multinational firms. major international institutions that reflect a post- The final challenge is societal heterogeneity, learn- World War ii-era nostalgia. The bargain between the ing to live together amid differences of individual and

48 Foreign Policy group identities that breed fear of “the other.” The it be liberal internationalism, Salafi jihadism, prole- migration of peoples has combined with technologies tarian solidarity, or “sustainability”—because it won’t. of travel and communications to produce increasingly Let’s assume the United States wants to be a real extreme combinations of nationalities, races, eth- competitor for leadership in this new era. The most nicities, and religions within societies. Yet few com- important thing for Americans to recognize is that it munities exist harmoniously with heterogeneity. In really is a new game and that the challenge is funda- some cases—Bosnia, Iraq, Rwanda, Sudan—the mentally different from containing communism or tensions reached extremes and the politics of identity defeating terrorism. Other international players— have been about “who I am,” “who you are,” and countries, global corporations, religious movements, that “I need to kill you before you kill me.” In other Internet communities—have their own strengths and instances—think China and Tibet, Muslims in West- shortcomings, but they will compete with Americans ern Europe, Hindus and Muslims in Kashmir—con- on a level playing field. The only real certainty is sistent episodes of violence overlap with systematic that the new age of ideology will not end in victory discrimination to create a poisonous atmosphere. and defeat. It might not “end” in any meaningful way The United States has its immigration demagoguery at all. “Equilibrium” and “stability,” the intellectual and persistent racial inequalities. No major global obsessions of so-called status quo powers, are going player has really yet articulated a compelling vision to be very tenuous states of being, and mostly illusory. for how to manage this kind of heterogeneity—and Here’s another certainty: The next decade will that is a huge opportunity for leadership. probably have its “end of ideology” prophets, just as Mutuality, a just society, a healthy planet, and soci- past ones did. Beware those trying to corner the mar- etal heterogeneity. They don’t add up to neatly packed ket with vaguely familiar talking points that brand the “isms.” But that’s not what the people of the world coming “new” ideas with a shinier version of the are shopping for. Smart players will beware doctrinal same old American-centered stamp. They will be just rigidity as well as any tired claims that history moves as wrong. And, chances are, the new crop of buyers inevitably toward one conclusion or another, whether won’t be interested in what they’re selling.

[ Want to Know More? ] Bruce W. Jentleson surveys the United States’ changing role in the world in American Foreign Policy: The Dynamics of Choice in the 21st Century (New York: W.W. Norton, 2000). Steven Weber’s The Success of Open Source (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2004) explores the political and economic implications of one of the most promising new developments in it.

In The Post-American World (New York: W.W. Norton, 2008), Fareed Zakaria argues that even as other countries are rising to a U.S. level of growth and prosperity, they do not yet threaten America’s premier role in the global community. For a look at why the international order needs the United States at the helm, read Michael Mandelbaum’s The Case for Goliath: How America Acts as the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century (New York: PublicAffairs, 2005).

Parag Khanna claims that globalization has negated “Americanization” in The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order (New York: Random House, 2008). In “Fading Superpower?” (Los Angeles Times, Sept. 9, 2007), David Rieff challenges the assumption that the United States is “the guarantor of international security and global trade, for the foreseeable future.”

In “Here Today, Gone Tomorrow” (Foreign Policy, September/October 2005), a selection of thinkers, journalists, scientists, and policymakers name the world’s most endangered ideas and institutions. “How Globalization Went Bad” (Foreign Policy, January/February 2007), coauthored by Weber, argues that a unipolar world breeds threats unlike those of any other system. »For links to relevant Web sites, access to the FP Archive, and a comprehensive index of related Foreign Policy articles, go to ForeignPolicy.com.

November | December 2008 49 The Dream Team

The next American president will confront a host of potential cataclysms: from a virulent financial crisis to a vicious terrorist enemy, nuclear proliferation to climate change. He’ll need his country’s brightest minds—not his party’s usual suspects. So, we asked 10 of the world’s top thinkers to name the unlikely team that can best guide No. 44 through the turbulent years ahead.

50 Foreign Policy ILLUSTRATIONS BY ZINA SAUNDERS FOR FP A formerundersecretary oftheTreasury, Liptonhasa S David Lipton of theprofessional military. while respecting theexpertise dent advicetothepresident providingquarters, indepen- He inspires confidenceinall Secretary Gatesisakeeper: S Robert Gates and leadthedepartment. and experiencetoexecutepolicy secretary ofstatehasthegravitas ings Institutionpresident andformerdeputy Capable ofdiscerningAmerica’s interests, theBrook- S Strobe Talbott T attack, thenationwouldnotbegrateful. and Russia—butlostamillioncitizens inanuclear managedrelationsPakistan, andartfully withChina Palestinian peace,cutcarbonemissions,stabilized conflict inIraq,checkedIran,brokered anIsraeli- weapon inanAmericancity. Ifhesuccessfullyendedthe The president ofthe World Bank hasoneofthebest S Robert Zoellick even today, tothinkofabettercandidate. itisstilldifficult impressively mastered thejobunderGeorge H.W. Bushthat, Baker, anexcellentdealmakerandinternationalrealist, so S James Baker G how to exert influencethroughhow toexert coalitionsandinstitutions. foreign policytoaworldinwhichAmericamustrelearn home. Abroad, histoughesttaskwillbetoadaptU.S. R C CEAYO THE OF ECRETARY OF ECRETARY OF ECRETARY CEAYOF ECRETARY OF ECRETARY OBERT HRISTOPH prevent aterrorist group from detonatinganuclear challengefacingthenextpresident isto he No.1 the keychallengesfornextpresident willbeat iven theUnitedStates’immensedomesticproblems, L. G D S S D TATE TATE EFENSE EFENSE T B REASURY ALLUCCI ERTRAM Former directoroftheGermanInstituteforInternationaland SecurityAffairs Talbott Dean oftheEdmundA.Walsh SchoolatGeorgetownUniversity success inboththepublicandprivatesectors. solid understandingoftheglobaleconomy, withproven today’s mostvexingchallenges. givesheranadvantageindealingwith Africa expertise States mustinspire othersinorder tosucceed.Plus,her how torunalarge organization. familiar withthediverseinternationalarena, andknows foreign-policy brainsaround, isaWashington insider and adeepsense ofthevalueundoctored intelligence. first-class analytical heftwithtoughadministrative skills The formerdeputynational security advisorcombines D James Steinberg and asenseoftheeconomicneeds ofordinary Americans. Street product butahighlyskilledpoliticianwithpoliticalclout Hillary’s theone,precisely becausethesenatorisnotaWall S Hillary Clinton CEAYO THE OF ECRETARY RCO OF IRECTOR and passion,whileunderstandingthattheUnited to improve policy. Marc Grossman Jessica T.Mathews forgetting thatthepurposeofintelligenceis D plex intelligencecommunity—whilenever N Grossman isauniversallyrespected diplomat withtheintegrity, management,and leadership skillstocoordinate thecom- N RCO OF IRECTOR projects Americanvalueswithintelligence ATIONAL ATIONAL The formerassistantsecretary ofstate A T MB bureaucracy forthepresident. Susan Rice dent isabrilliantanalystofthe manage thenationalsecurity REASURY The CarnegieEndowmentpresi- . thorniest policyissues,withthe temperament andstrength to S I OTHE TO ECURITY NTELLIGENCE N ATIONAL U November A NITED DVISOR I NTELLIGENCE B ONUS PICK ONUS N | December ATIONS 2008 51 [ The Dream Team ]

Richard Haass Arnold Schwarzenegger BONUS PICK NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR SECRETARY FOR ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT President of the Council on Foreign Relations, Haass is The Governator has proven himself to be a get-the-job-done familiar with the whole range of international and strate- environmentalist who commands international respect. To gic issues. He’s also one of the sharpest minds on how address this increasingly vital area properly, the next the United States can best mobilize influence in a glob- president must view energy and the environment as two alized world. sides of the same coin.

GIDEON RACHMAN Chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times

he next president’s advisors must finally Omaha does as manager of the world’s largest hedge Tjettison the idea that U.S. foreign pol- fund. icy should be centered on a “war on terror.” They should concentrate instead on Richard Holbrooke rebuilding alliances and restoring the U.S. DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE economy. I know he would prefer Foggy Bottom, but I’m sure the former assistant secretary of Richard Lugar state could have some fun (and do some SECRETARY OF STATE good) by bringing his robust management U.S. foreign policy has been far too exciting under style to the intel world. Bush. We need someone sober, experienced, and dull: Senator Lugar. James Steinberg NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR Robert Gates Experienced, clever, and commit- SECRETARY OF DEFENSE ted, Steinberg has the talents need- He’s doing a good job managed to steer policy from the White ing two wars and seems to be House. opposed to a strike on Iran. Why change now? Sarah Palin BONUS PICK U.S. AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA Warren Buffett The governor’s taste for hunting, plain- SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY spoken talk, and foxy boots—not to men- With the government nationalizing half tion long years of staring at Russia from the financial sector, let’s see how the Sage of Buffett Alaska—ensure a special relationship with Putin.

KATRINA VANDEN HEUVEL Editor, The Nation

he new president must understand the limits of Lawrence Korb TAmerican power, extricate the United States from SECRETARY OF DEFENSE Iraq and Afghanistan, repair damaged alliances, and refocus An assistant defense secretary under Ronald Reagan our energy on rebuilding American society and making the and now at the Center for American Progress, Korb has global economy work better for working men and women. done groundbreaking strategic thinking on issues including a speedy and orderly exit from Iraq, support for Bill Bradley troops and veterans, and cutting billions in wasteful SECRETARY OF STATE Pentagon spending. The former New Jersey senator and Knicks star is a slam dunk: He opposes NATO expansion and has a keen under- James K. Galbraith standing of the importance of statecraft, multilateral diplo- SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY macy, and international economics. Like his father, Galbraith understands that finance must

52 Foreign Policy serve the real economy. He recognizes the ruinous eco- Andrew Bacevich nomic effects of our hypermilitarized foreign policy, NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR thinks that world prosperity depends upon rising wages An Army officer for more than 20 years, Bacevich was con- and public investment, and has the wisdom to guide us sidered one of the U.S. military’s leading intellectuals. He is through the remaking of our global financial architecture. also a transpartisan truth teller who understands the limits of U.S. military and economic power. James Bamford DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE Al Gore and Van Jones BONUS PICK An investigative journalist whose 1982 book about the ENERGY SECURITY COUNCIL CO-CHAIRS NSA, The Puzzle Palace, has been used as a textbook at Because global warming is going to be catastrophic, we the National Defense Intelligence College, Bamford values need to end our dependence on fossil fuels while simulta- wisdom and history above intelligence factoids. He will neously creating well-paid, green-collar jobs. No other challenge convention and abuses and draw the line on nation has the power to get others to the table, and covert action. A man of integrity, he’ll always refuse to nobody can do it better than the former vice president and bend intelligence for political purposes. the founder of the advocacy group Green for All.

SHASHI THAROOR Former U.N. under secretary general for communications and public information

he next president’s challenge is to restore expert, and visionary. Perhaps he can do for TAmerica’s standing in the eyes of the a shaken Wall Street what he has done for world. He must reinvent the United States as the company that bears his name. a country that listens, engages with others, and, as its founders hoped, shows “a decent Jane Harman respect to the opinions of mankind.” DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE The California congresswoman demonstrates Bill Clinton a firm grasp of both the usefulness of an SECRETARY OF STATE effective national intelligence apparatus and There is no more popular American in the need for it to be properly accountable. the world than the former presi- She enjoys the respect of both the intelli- dent, and no one else with gence community and the political comparable energy, knowl- establishment. edge, experience, and credibility to undo the negative Wesley Clark stereotypes that have NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR grown out of Washington’s A thinking-man’s soldier with field conduct after 9/11. experience and an Oxford degree, General Clark would bring a rare Richard Lugar mix of credentials to the job. But he SECRETARY OF DEFENSE needs a strong deputy in Susan Although Lugar’s reputation is as a Rice, who understands Africa and foreign-policy statesman rather than other important but neglected areas Nooyi a defense expert, the Defense and issues that Clark knows little about. Department must be better attuned to international political realities. And the world would benefit from enlightened Indra Nooyi BONUS PICK leadership of its most powerful military establishment. U.S. TRADE REPRESENTATIVE A business leader who heads a multinational corporation, Michael Bloomberg an immigrant knowledgeable about conditions in the devel- SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY oping world, and a feisty woman with advanced diplomatic The mayor of New York has extraordinary credentials as a skills, the PepsiCo chair could transform the negotiations corporate leader, government administrator, financial for a new “development round” of global trade talks.

November | December 2008 53 [ The Dream Team ]

KISHORE MAHBUBANI Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School at the National University of Singapore

merica’s destiny is increasingly tied to an intuitive feel for the interdependence of A that of others, yet the gap between the today’s global markets and how the United United States and the ever shrinking world States can gain international support to get its has never been greater. The main challenge economy in order. of the next president is to bridge this gap and explain to Americans why their country Brent Scowcroft must provide global leadership. DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE The U.S. intelligence community has been politi- Strobe Talbott cized and demoralized. George H.W. Bush’s nation- SECRETARY OF STATE al security advisor has the bipartisan stature and the His new book, The Great credibility to help it rebuild its confidence. Experiment, explains eloquently how America can regain the Fareed Zakaria trust of the world. And who bet- NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR ter than the author, with his In The Post-American World, Zakaria diplomatic skills and unflap- describes the complex world the pable temperament, to accom- United States must navigate and why plish this task? a return to pragmatic realism is the answer. Newsweek International’s Sam Nunn editor is a great communicator, in SECRETARY OF DEFENSE public and in private, and he can The Nuclear Non-Proliferation persuade the Washington establish- Treaty is legally alive but spiritually ment to change its outdated worldview. dead. Former Senator Nunn knows that Zakaria American leadership by example is the only thing that will Anne-Marie Slaughter BONUS PICK push the nuclear genie back into its bottle. AMBASSADOR TO THE UNITED NATIONS The world’s richest country would benefit as much as any- Mohamed El-Erian one from better global governance. The Woodrow Wilson SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY School’s dean appreciates that a revitalized United Having excelled at the International Monetary Fund, at the Nations can best serve America’s national interests by Harvard endowment, and in private finance, El-Erian has delivering this international public good.

CESARE MERLINI Executive vice president at the Council for the United States and Italy

he next occupant of the Oval Office will need a Robert Zoellick Tteam that can restore the American people’s confi- SECRETARY OF STATE dence in their economic system and fend off protection- Given the turmoil in the global economy, having a secretary

ist impulses at home. Above all, he needs advisors who of state who combines top-level competence on both understand that strengthening the rule of law, rather than foreign policy and economics seems like a smart move.

spreading democracy, should be the guiding principle of U.S. foreign policy. Chuck Hagel [ SECRETARY OF DEFENSE For More Online Widely respected in Washington and in foreign capitals, Whom do you think the next president should hire? the Nebraska senator would ensure sufficient consensus across the aisle as it becomes increasingly appar- Pick your dream team at: ent that a dramatic reexamination of America’s military ForeignPolicy.com/extras/dreamteam. [ deployments is needed.

54 Foreign Policy Indra Nooyi Strobe Talbott SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR The PepsiCo chair is not only a woman (a first for the The Brookings president has the right blend of seasoned Treasury), but she also comes from the manufacturing sec- realism and consistent idealism, and he understands tor rather than the toxic atmosphere of Wall Street. that boosting the rule of law, not pushing for hasty elections, must guide U.S. foreign policy. Richard Holbrooke DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE Jessica T. Mathews BONUS PICK Seen from abroad, rich diplomatic experience would be AMBASSADOR TO THE UNITED NATIONS a welcome addition to the basic requirements of inter- With her deep understanding of shared global problems, agency management skills and an objective approach Mathews is the right person to represent the United States to intelligence. at the world’s most inclusive international organization.

ROBERT BAER Author and former CIA case officer assigned to the Middle East

he next administration is tasked with Warren Buffett Tending two wars in which we still SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY cannot define victory, let alone the enemy. The incoming president must figure out how Among my old CIA colleagues, I cannot globalization went so wrong on Wall Street. I’d get a consensus on whether Osama bin ask Buffett. He sniffed out the derivatives dis- Laden is dead or alive. How do you aster long before anyone else. And because beat an enemy who may already be people trust him, he can guide America out dead? And then there is Iran, which is of this crisis of confidence. either the real enemy in the Middle East or, potentially, a reluctant ally. Figuring John Abizaid out which will be the new president’s DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE greatest strategic puzzle. General Abizaid understands that intelligence is an organized search for a windfall; sometimes it is very Sam Nunn good, and sometimes there is none at all. Plus, SECRETARY OF STATE having a general atop the intelligence com- During the next four munity will keep the Pentagon happy. years, we can count on one or more major crises Buckminster Fuller and some tough negotia- NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR tions with Russia. Nunn, Fuller is long dead, but the White who understands how the House needs a visionary of his breakup of the Soviet Union caliber to think our way out of oil left a deep well of Russian dependence on unstable dictator- resentment, can detect where ships like Saudi Arabia and Moscow’s red lines really are. Venezuela. We need a Manhattan Project for solar power, windmills, Robert Gates Gates and even nuclear energy. We also need SECRETARY OF DEFENSE someone who can look objectively at our options on glob- Gates has already gone a long way toward cleaning up al warming before it’s too late. the mess left by Donald Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz. And, however you want to cut it, the so-called surge T. Boone Pickens BONUS PICK succeeded under his watch. More importantly, Gates is SECRETARY OF ENERGY on record saying that a war with Iran would be “disas- It will take an oil man to convince Americans that it’s time trous.” He knows what can and cannot be accom- to move on. Either we’re out of oil, or it will kill the planet plished militarily in the next four years. and we’re out of luck. Pickens has a plan for both.

November | December 2008 55 [ The Dream Team ]

GROVER NORQUIST Founder and president of Americans for Tax Reform

he United States is the freest, most dynamic, most for lower marginal tax rates—just the area where we have Tcompetitive, and wealthiest economy in the world. To fallen behind many of our competitors. keep it that way, the next president must expand free trade, cut U.S. corporate taxes, and avoid expensive social David Norquist welfare commitments, such as running other coun- DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE tries for them. Not every fight in the schoolyard is He’s my brother and he’s good. He did defense America’s fight. intelligence budgets for the Pentagon, and he is now the chief financial officer for the Department Chuck Hagel of Homeland Security. SECRETARY OF STATE If you cannot go back in time and change mistakes, Dov Zakheim you can replace those who made the NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR errors with those who had the The president’s closest foreign-policy advi- wisdom to oppose them at the time. sor needs common sense and experience. The former Defense comptroller Robert Gates has both, and he knows where to look for SECRETARY OF DEFENSE extra zeros in the budget. Simply put, he needs more time to fix things. Four more years! Robert Zoellick BONUS PICK U.S. TRADE REPRESENTATIVE Steve Forbes Forbes It would be unusual for the World Bank president SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY to return to his old job. But he left too soon, and it’s time to He is a committed free trader and has a record of fighting make progress on all of these stalled trade agreements.

LESLIE H. GELB Board senior fellow and president emeritus, Council on Foreign Relations

here are no new requirements for America’s next crop confidence. That’s Altman, a financial wizard with years of Tof leaders. Like the best of their predecessors, they government experience and a sound head on his shoulders. must have common sense and think strategically, because to the extent that nations respond to anything today, it’s still Jamie Gorelick power. I mean real power, especially pressure and coercion of DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE the diplomatic and economic variety. This high-powered lawyer and former 9/11 Commission member knows the intel business well, having served at Richard Holbrooke the highest levels of the Justice and Defense depart- SECRETARY OF STATE ments. She’ll be very smart and very tough. Holbrooke thinks strategically and has a proven ability to get things done. Plus, he’s courageous and highly bipartisan. Dennis Ross NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR Robert Gates With his strategic outlook and broad experience working SECRETARY OF DEFENSE for both parties as the chief Middle East peace negotia- Why change horses midstream? Secretary Gates has tor, Ross would be seen as an honest broker inside and done a superb job. He’s clearheaded and pragmatic, and outside government. he doesn’t seem to have a partisan bone in his body. Susan Rice BONUS PICK Roger Altman AMBASSADOR TO THE UNITED NATIONS SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY Tightly wound, Rice has the fire to drive U.S. policy in What the markets need right now is someone who inspires Turtle Bay’s diplomatic maze.

56 Foreign Policy NEW BOOKS FROM THE

Globalization is confronting govern- This short primer provides “ments with an increasingly competitive “an excellent, panoramic fiscal environment. Investors now introduction to the world of have many choices among competing trade policy today. Readers will country tax climates. Global Tax get a clear understanding of the Revolution shows that countries big picture after reading Razeen ignore this reality at their peril. Sally’s splendid book. —VERNON L. SMITH, Nobel Laureate in Economics” —DR. DOUGLAS A. IRWIN, Dartmouth” University In the world’s increasingly integrated economy, nations This compelling analysis of today's rapidly growing and are battling to attract investment and skilled workers interdependent global economy provides a sharp look at by overhauling the key trends that their tax codes to are shaping the create a more future of free trade attractive business and international environment—a commerce. Sally process known as explores the spread tax competition. of protectionist The authors reactions to global- challenge the U.S. ization, the swiftly government to rising market power be a leader in tax of China and Asia, reform and to and in the end re-tool the federal paints a hopeful but tax system to meet realistic picture of the challenges of the forces that are the global market- shaping the interna- place. tional economy in $21.95 • hardcover the 21st century. 978-1-933995-18-2 $18.95 • hardcover 978-1-933995-21-2

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BUY YOUR COPY AT BOOKSTORES, CALL 800-767-1241, OR VISIT CATO.ORG. 58 Foreign Policy liethe lovewe Foreign adoption seems like the perfect solution to a heartbreaking imbalance: Poor countries have babies in need of homes, and rich countries have homes in need of babies. Unfortunately, those little orphaned bundles of joy may not be orphans at all. | By E.J. Graff

e all know the story of international adoption: Millions of infants and toddlers have been abandoned or orphaned— placed on the side of a road or on the doorstep of a church, or left parentless due to aids, destitution, or war. These little ones find themselves forgotten, living in crowded orphanages or end- Wing up on the streets, facing an uncertain future of misery and neglect. But, if they are lucky, adoring new moms and dads from faraway lands whisk them away for a chance at a better life. Unfortunately, this story is largely fiction. Westerners have been sold the myth of a world orphan crisis. We are told that millions of children are waiting for their “forever families” to rescue them from lives of abandonment and abuse. But many of the infants and toddlers being adopted by Western parents today are not orphans at all. Yes, hundreds of thousands of children around the world do need loving homes. But more often than not, the neediest children are sick, disabled, traumatized, or older than 5. They are not the healthy babies that, quite understandably, most Westerners hope to

E.J. Graff is associate director and senior researcher at Brandeis University’s Schuster

ARTIGA PHOTO/CORBIS Institute for Investigative Journalism.

November | December 2008 59 [ The Lie We Love ]

adopt. There are simply not enough healthy, adoptable discount. Agencies claim the costs pay for the agency’s infants to meet Western demand—and there’s too fee, the cost of foreign salaries and operations, staff much Western money in search of children. As a result, travel, and orphanage donations. But experts say the many international adoption agencies work not to fees are so disproportionately large for the child’s find homes for needy children but to find children for home country that they encourage corruption. Western homes. To complicate matters further, while interna- Since the mid-1990s, the number of international tional adoption has become an industry driven by adoptions each year has nearly doubled, from money, it is also charged with strong emotions. Many 22,200 in 1995 to just under 40,000 in 2006. At its adoption agencies and adoptive parents passionately peak, in 2004, more than 45,000 children from insist that crooked practices are not systemic, but developing countries were adopted by foreigners. tragic, isolated cases. Arrest the bad guys, they say, but let the “good” adoptions continue. However, remove cash from the adoption chain, and, outside of Many international adoption agencies China, the number of healthy babies needing Western homes all work nottofindhomes for needychildren but disappears. Nigel Cantwell, a Geneva-based consultant on child but tofind children for Western homes. protection policy, has seen the dangerous influence of money on adoptions in Eastern Europe and Central Americans bring home more of these children than Asia, where he has helped reform corrupt adoption any other nationality—more than half the global systems. In these regions, healthy children age 3 and total in recent years. younger can easily be adopted in their own countries, Where do these babies come from? As interna- he says. I asked him how many healthy babies in tional adoptions have flourished, so has evidence that those regions would be available for international babies in many countries are being systematically adoption if money never exchanged hands. “I would bought, coerced, and stolen away from their birth hazard a guess at zero,” he replied. families. Nearly half the 40 countries listed by the U.S. State Department as the top sources for international adoption over the past 15 years—places such as Belarus, THE MYTH OF SUPPLY Brazil, Ethiopia, Honduras, Peru, and Romania—have International adoption wasn’t always a demand- at least temporarily halted adoptions or been prevent- driven industry. Half a century ago, it was primarily ed from sending children to the United States because a humanitarian effort for children orphaned by con- of serious concerns about corruption and kidnapping. flict. In 1955, news spread that Bertha and Henry And yet when a country is closed due to corruption, Holt, an evangelical couple from Oregon, had adopt- many adoption agencies simply transfer their clients’ ed eight Korean War orphans, and families across the hopes to the next “hot” country. That country abrupt- United States expressed interest in following their ly experiences a spike in infants and toddlers adopted example. Since then, international adoption has overseas—until it too is forced to shut its doors. become increasingly popular in Australia, Canada, Along the way, the international adoption indus- Europe, and the United States. Americans adopted try has become a market often driven by its customers. more than 20,000 foreign children in 2006 alone, up Prospective adoptive parents in the United States will from just 8,987 in 1995. Half a dozen European pay adoption agencies between $15,000 and $35,000 countries regularly bring home more foreign-born

(excluding travel, visa costs, and other miscellaneous children per capita than does the United States. Today,

expenses) for the chance to bring home a little one. Spe- Canada, France, Italy, Spain, and the United States cial needs or older children can be adopted at a account for 4 out of every 5 international adoptions. [ Changes in Western demography explain much of For More Online the growth. Thanks to contraception, abortion, and delayed marriages, the number of unplanned births in For a photographic tour of the global baby trade, most developed countries has declined in recent visit: ForeignPolicy.com/extras/adoption. [ decades. Some women who delay having children

60 Foreign Policy Leftbehind: At this orphanage in Ukraine, most of the babies’ parents are still alive but cannot provideforthem.

discover they’ve outwaited their fertility; others have Orphans are rarely healthy babies; healthy babies are difficulty conceiving from the beginning. Still others rarely orphaned. “It’s not really true,” says Alexandra adopt for religious reasons, explaining that they’ve Yuster, a senior advisor on child protection with been called to care for children in need. In the United unicef, “that there are large numbers of infants with States, a motive beyond demography is the notion no homes who either will be in institutions or who that international adoption is somehow “safer”— need intercountry adoption.” more predictable and more likely to end in suc- That assertion runs counter to the story line that cess—than many domestic adoptions, where there’s has long been marketed to Americans and other West- an outsized fear of a birth mother’s last-minute erners, who have been trained by images of destitution change of heart. Add an ocean of distance, and the in developing countries and the seemingly endless idea that needy children abound in poor countries, flow of daughters from China to believe that millions and that risk seems to disappear. of orphaned babies around the world desperately But international adoptions are no less risky; need homes. unicef itself is partly responsible for this they’re simply less regulated. Just as companies out- erroneous assumption. The organization’s statistics source industry to countries with lax labor laws and on orphans and institutionalized children are widely low wages, adoptions have moved to states with few quoted to justify the need for international adoption. laws about the process. Poor, illiterate birthparents in In 2006, unicef reported an estimated 132 million the developing world simply have fewer protections orphans in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Latin America, than their counterparts in the United States, especial- and the Caribbean. But the organization’s definition ly in countries where human trafficking and corrup- of “orphan” includes children who have lost just one tion are rampant. And too often, these imbalances are parent, either to desertion or death. Just 10 percent of overlooked on the adopting end. After all, one coun- the total—13 million children—have lost both parents, try after another has continued to supply what adop- andmostoftheselivewithextendedfamily.Theyare tive parents want most. also older: By unicef’s own estimate, 95 percent of In reality, there are very few young, healthy orphans are older than 5. In other words, unicef’s

RUDI TARNEDEN/CORBIS orphans available for adoption around the world. “millions of orphans” are not healthy babies doomed

November | December 2008 61 [ The Lie We Love ]

to institutional misery unless Westerners adopt and “Guatemala is a perfect case study of how inter- save them. Rather, they are mostly older children liv- national adoption has become a demand-driven ing with extended families who need financial support. business,” says Kelley McCreery Bunkers, a former The exception is China, where the country’s three- consultant with unicef Guatemala. The country’s decades-old one-child policy, now being loosened, has adoption process was “an industry developed to created an unprecedented number of girls available for meet the needs of adoptive families in developed adoption. But even this flow of daughters is finite; countries, specifically the United States.” China has far more hopeful foreigners looking to Because the vast majority of the country’s institu- adopt a child than it has orphans it is willing to send tionalized children are not healthy, adoptable babies, overseas. In 2005, almost none has foreign parents been adopted adopted nearly abroad. In the fall 14,500 Chinese of 2007, a survey children. That conducted by the was far fewer Guatemalan gov- than the number ernment, unicef, of Westerners and the interna- who wanted to tional child wel- adopt; adoption fare and adoption agencies report agency Holt Inter- many more clients national Chil- waiting in line. dren’s Services And taking those found approxi- children home has mately 5,600 gotten harder; in children and 2007, China’s Family reunion: After 14 months, Ana Escobar foundher stolen child about to beadopted. adolescents in central adoption Guatemalan insti- authority sharply reduced the number of children tutions. More than 4,600 of these children were age sent abroad, possibly because of the country’s grow- 4 or older. Fewer than 400 were under a year old. And ing sex imbalance, declining poverty, and scandals yet in 2006, more than 270 Guatemalan babies, all involving child trafficking for foreign adoption. younger than 12 months, were being sent to the Unit- Prospective foreign parents today are strictly judged by ed States each month. These adopted children were their age, marital history, family size, income, health, simply not coming from the country’s institutions. and even weight. That means that if you are single, gay, Last year, 98 percent of U.S. adoptions from fat, old, less than well off, too often divorced, too Guatemala were “relinquishments”: Babies who had recently married, taking antidepressants, or already never seen the inside of an institution were signed have four children, China will turn you away. Even over directly to a private attorney who approved the those allowed a spot in line are being told they might international adoption—for a very considerable fee— wait three to four years before they bring home a without any review by a judge or social service agency. child. That has led many prospective parents to shop So, where had some of these adopted babies around for a country that puts fewer barriers between come from? Consider the case of Ana Escobar, a them and their children—as if every country were young Guatemalan woman who in March 2007 China, but with fewer onerous regulations. reported to police that armed men had locked her One such country has been Guatemala, which in in a closet in her family’s shoe store and stolen her 2006 and 2007 was the No. 2 exporter of children to infant. After a 14-month search, Escobar found the United States. Between 1997 and 2006, the num- her daughter in pre-adoption foster care, just weeks ber of Guatemalan children adopted by Americans before the girl was to be adopted by a couple from more than quadrupled, to more than 4,500 annually. Indiana. dna testing showed the toddler to be Incredibly, in 2006, American parents adopted one of Escobar’s child. In a similar case from 2006, Raquel every 110 Guatemalan children born. In 2007, nearly Par, another Guatemalan woman, reported being 9 out of 10 children adopted were less than a year old; drugged while waiting for a bus in Guatemala City,

almost half were younger than 6 months old. waking to find her year-old baby missing. Three RODRIGO ABD/AP

62 Foreign Policy months later, Par learned her daughter had been these millions of middle-class families could eas- adopted by an American couple. ily absorb all available babies. The country’s per- On Jan. 1, 2008, Guatemala closed its doors to vasive poverty does leave many children fending American adoptions so that the government could for themselves on the street. But “kids are not on reform the broken process. Britain, Canada, France, the street alone at the age of 2,” Cantwell, the Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain all stopped child protection consultant, says. “They are 5 or accepting adoptions from the country several years 6, and they aren’t going to be adopted.” That’s earlier, citing trafficking concerns. But more than partly because most of these children still have 2,280 American adoptions from the country are still family ties and therefore are not legally available being processed, for adoption, and albeit with addi- partly because tional safeguards. they would have Stolen babies have difficultly adjust- already been found ing to a middle- in that queue; class European or Guatemalan author- North American ities expect more. home. Many of Guatemala’s these children are example is extreme; deeply marked by it is widely consid- abuse, crime, and ered to have the poverty, and few world’s most notori- prospective par- ous record of cor- ents are prepared ruption in foreign to adopt them. adoption. But Surely, though, the same troubling Who’s your daddy?: Parents might never knowif theiradopted childistruly an orphan. prospective parents trends have emerged, can at least feel on smaller scales, in more than a dozen other coun- secure that their child is truly an orphan in need of a tries, including Albania, Cambodia, Ethiopia, Liberia, home if they receive all the appropriate legal papers? Peru, and Vietnam. The pattern suggests that the Unfortunately, no. supply of adoptable babies rises to meet foreign demand—and disappears when Western cash is no longer available. For instance, in December 2001, the NURSERY CRIMES U.S. immigration service stopped processing adop- In many countries, it can be astonishingly easy to fab- tion visas from Cambodia, citing clear evidence that ricate a history for a young child, and in the process, children were being acquired illicitly, often against manufacture an orphan. The birth mothers are often their parents’ wishes. That year, Westerners adopted poor, young, unmarried, divorced, or otherwise lack- more than 700 Cambodian children; of the 400 adopting family protection. The children may be born into ed by Americans, more than half were less than 12 a locally despised minority group that is afforded few months old. But in 2005, a study of Cambodia’s rights. And for enough money, someone will separate orphanage population, commissioned by the U.S. these little ones from their vulnerable families, turning Agency for International Development, found only a them into “paper orphans” for lucrative export. total of 132 children who were less than a year old— Some manufactured orphans are indeed found in fewer babies than Westerners had been adopting every what Westerners call “orphanages.” But these estab- three months a few years before. lishments often serve less as homes to parentless chil- Even countries with large populations, such as dren and more as boarding schools for poor youngsters. India, rarely have healthy infants and toddlers Many children are there only temporarily, seeking who need foreign parents. India’s large and grow- food, shelter, and education while their parents, because ing middle class, at home and in the diaspora, of poverty or illness, cannot care for them. Many fam- faces fertility issues like those of their developed- ilies visit their children, or even bring them home on world counterparts. They too are looking for weekends, until they can return home permanently. In

JASON REED/REUTERS/CORBIS healthy babies to adopt; some experts think that 2005, when the Hannah B. Williams Orphanage in

November | December 2008 63 [ The Lie We Love ]

Meettheparents: Guangzhou’s White Swan Hotel, less than a block from thecity’s U.S. Consulate,isa hub for international adoptions from China.

Monrovia, Liberia, was closed because of shocking Law reported poor Guatemalan families being paid living conditions, 89 of the 102 “orphans” there beween $300 and several thousand dollars per child. returned to their families. In Vietnam, “rural families Sometimes, medical professionals serve as child in particular will put their babies into these orphanages finders to obtain infants. In Vietnam, for instance, a that are really extended day-care centers during the har- finder’s fee for a single child can easily dwarf a nurse’s vest season,” says a U.S. Embassy spokeswoman in $50-a-month salary. Some nurses and doctors coerce Hanoi. In some cases, unscrupulous orphanage direc- birth mothers into giving up their children by offering tors, local officials, or other operators persuade illiter- them a choice: pay outrageously inflated hospital bills ate birth families to sign documents that relinquish or relinquish their newborns. Illiterate new mothers are those children, who are then sent abroad for adoption, made to sign documents they can’t read. In August never to be seen again by their bereft families. 2008, the U.S. State Department released a warning Other children are located through similarly that birth certificates issued by Tu Du Hospital in Ho nefarious means. Western adoption agencies often Chi Minh City—which in 2007 had reported 200 contract with in-country facilitators—sometimes births a day, and an average of three abandoned babies orphanage directors, sometimes freelancers—and per 100 births—were “unreliable.” Most of the hos- pay per-child fees for each healthy baby adopted. pital’s “abandoned” babies were sent to the city’s Tam These facilitators, in turn, subcontract with child Binh orphanage, from which many Westerners have finders, often for sums in vast excess of local wages. adopted. (Tu Du Hospital is where Angelina Jolie’s These paydays give individuals a significant financial Vietnamese-born son was reportedly abandoned one incentive to find adoptable babies at almost any month after his birth; he was at Tam Binh when she cost. In Guatemala, where the gdp percapitais adopted him.) According to Linh Song, executive $4,700 a year, child finders often earned $6,000 to director of Ethica, an American nonprofit devoted to $8,000 for each healthy, adoptable infant. In many promoting ethical adoption, a provincial hospital’s cases, child finders simply paid poor families for chief obstetrician told her in 2007 “that he provided infants. A May 2007 report on adoption trafficking 10 ethnic minority infants to [an] orphanage [for

by the Hague Conference on Private International adoption] in return for an incubator.” GILLES SABRIE

64 Foreign Policy To smooth the adoption process, officials in the agent with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforce- children’s home countries may be bribed to create false ment who investigated Galindo. “It’s not a crime.” identity documents. Consular officials for the adopting countries generally accept whatever documents they receive. But if a local U.S. embassy has seen a ROCKING THE CRADLE series of worrisome referrals—say, a sudden spike in Buying a child abroad is something most prospective healthy infants coming from the same few orphan- parents want no part of. So, how can it be prevented? ages, or a single province sending an unusually high As international adoption has grown in the past number of babies with suspiciously similar paper- decade, the ad hoc approach of closing some corrupt work—officials may investigate. But generally, they countries to adoption and shifting parents’ hopes (and do not want to obstruct adoptions of genuinely needy money) to the next destination has failed. The agen- children or get in the way of people longing for a cies that profit from adoption appear to willfully child. However, many frequently doubt that the adop- ignore how their own payments and fees are causing tions crossing their desks are completely aboveboard. both the corruption and the closures. “I believe in intercountry adoption very strongly,” says Some countries that send children overseas for Katherine Monahan, a U.S. State Department official adoption have kept the process lawful and transpar- who has overseen scores of U.S. adoptions from ent from nearly the beginning and their model is around the world. “[But] I worry that there were instructive. Thailand, for instance, has a central gov- many children that could have stayed with their fam- ernment authority that counsels birth mothers and ilies if we could have provided them with even a lit- offers some families social and economic support so tle economic assistance.” One U.S. official told me that poverty is never a reason to give up a child. Other that when embassy staff in a country that sent more countries, such as Paraguay and Romania, reformed than 1,000 children overseas last year were asked their processes after sharp surges in shady adoptions which adoption visas they felt uneasy about, they in the 1990s. But those reforms were essentially to stop replied: almost all of them. international adoptions almost entirely. In 1994, Most of the Westerners involved with foreign Paraguay sent 483 children to the United States; last adoption agencies—like business people importing year, the country sent none. foreign sneakers—can plau- sibly deny knowledge of unethical or unseemly practices overseas. They don’t have to know. Willful igno- When embassy staff inacountry that last year sent more rance allowed Lauryn Galindo, a former hula than 1,000 children overseaswere asked which adoption dancer from the United States, to collect more than visasthey feltuneasyabout, they replied: almost all of them. $9 million in adoption fees over several years for Cam- bodian infants and toddlers. Between 1997 and 2001, For a more comprehensive solution, the best hope Americans adopted 1,230 children from Cambodia; may be the Hague Convention on Intercountry Adop- Galindo said she was involved in 800 of the adoption, an international agreement designed to prevent tions. (Galindo reportedly delivered Angelina Jolie’s child trafficking for adoption. On April 1, 2008, the Cambodian child to her movie set in Africa.) But in United States formally entered the agreement, which a two-year probe beginning in 2002, U.S. investiga- has 75 other signatories. In states that send children tors alleged that Galindo paid Cambodian child find- overseas and are party to the convention, such as ers to purchase, defraud, coerce, or steal children Albania, Bulgaria, Colombia, and the Philippines, from their families, and conspired to create false Hague-compatible reforms have included a central identity documents for the children. Galindo later government authority overseeing child welfare, efforts served federal prison time on charges of visa fraud and to place needy children with extended families and money laundering, but not trafficking. “You can get local communities first, and limits on the number of away with buying babies around the world as a Unit- foreign adoption agencies authorized to work in the ed States citizen,” says Richard Cross, a senior special country. The result, according to experts, has been a

November | December 2008 65 [ The Lie We Love ]

sharp decline in baby buying, fraud, coercion, and kid- regulations but are still sending $20,000 anywhere— napping for adoption. well, you can bypass any system with enough cash.” In adopting countries, the convention requires a Improved regulations will protect not only the central authority—in the United States’ case, the State children being adopted and their birth families, but Department—to oversee international adoption. The also the consumers: hopeful parents. Adopting a State Department empowers two nonprofit organi- child—like giving birth—is an emotional experience; zations to certify adoption agencies; if shady practices, it can be made wrenching by the abhorrent realization fraud, financial improprieties, or links with traffick- that a child believed to be an orphan simply isn’t. One ing come to light, accreditation can be revoked. American who adopted a little girl from Cambodia in Already, the rules appear to be having some effect: Sev- 2002 wept as she spoke at an adoption ethics con- eral U.S. agencies long dogged by rumors of bad ference in October 2007 about such a discovery. “I practices have been denied accreditation; some have was told she was an orphan,” she said. “One year shut their doors. But no international treaty is perfect, after she came home, and she could speak English well and the Hague Convention is no exception. Many of enough, she told me about her mommy and daddy the countries sending their children to the West, and her brothers and her sisters.” including Ethiopia, Russia, South Korea, Ukraine, Unless we recognize that behind the altruistic and Vietnam, have yet to join the agreement. veneer, international adoption has become an indus- Perhaps most important, more effective regula- try—one that is often highly lucrative and sometimes tions would strictly limit the amount of money that corrupt—many more adoption stories will have changes hands. Per-child fees could be outlawed. Pay- unhappy endings. Unless adoption agencies are held to ments could be capped to cover only legitimate costs account, more young children will be wrongfully taken such as medical care, food, and clothing for the chil- from their families. And unless those desperate to dren. And crucially, fees must be kept proportionate become parents demand reform, they will continue— with the local economies. “Unless you control the wittingly or not—to pay for wrongdoing. “Credu- money, you won’t control the corruption,” says lous Westerners eager to believe that they are saving Thomas DiFilipo, president of the Joint Council on children are easily fooled into accepting laundered International Children’s Services, which represents children,” writes David Smolin, a law professor and more than 200 international adoption organizations. advocate for international adoption reform. “For there “If we have the greatest laws and the greatest is no fool like the one who wants to be fooled.”

[ Want to Know More? ] For more resources and reporting on corruption in the international adoption trade, visit the Web site of the Schuster Institute for Investigative Journalism at Brandeis University. Ethica, a nonprofit advocacy organization for ethical adoption worldwide, publishes news about adoption reform and country fact sheets on its site. The Adoption Agency Research Group on Yahoo! is a useful Internet bulletin board with resources that allow prospective parents to compare different agencies.

Law scholar David M. Smolin argues that current adoption laws provide the context for the kidnapping and trafficking of children in “Child Laundering: How the Intercountry Adoption System Legit- imizes and Incentivizes the Practices of Buying, Trafficking, Kidnapping, and Stealing Children” (Berkeley Electronic Press Legal Series, Aug. 29, 2005). Ethan B. Kapstein examines how corruption permeates international adoption in “The Baby Trade” (Foreign Affairs, November/December 2003).

Sara Corbett investigates adoption practices in Cambodia, where improprieties led to a temporary moratorium, in “Where Do Babies Come From?” (New York Times Magazine, June 16, 2002). “The Diaper Diaspora” (Foreign Policy, January/February 2007) charts the rise of international adoption and breaks down the costs that prospective parents can expect. »For links to relevant Web sites, access to the FP Archive, and a comprehensive index of related Foreign Policy articles, go to ForeignPolicy.com.

66 Foreign Policy www.isn.ethz.ch

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ISN Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich ETH Zurich Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich Cities bear the brunt of the world’s financial meltdowns, crime waves, and climate crises in ways national governments never will. So, when Foreign Policy, A.T. Kearney, and The Chicago Council on Global Affairs teamed up to measure globalization around the world, we focused on the 60 cities that shape our lives the most. ational governments may shape the broad But what makes a “global city”? The term itself outlines of globalization, but where does it conjures a command center for the cognoscenti. It really play out? Where are globalization’s means power, sophistication, wealth, and influ- successes and failures most acute? Where ence. To call a global city your own suggests that elseN but the places where most of humanity now the ideas and values of your metropolis shape the chooses to live and work—cities. The world’s biggest, world. And, to a large extent, that’s true. The cities most interconnected cities help set global agendas, that host the biggest capital markets, elite univer- weather transnational dangers, and serve as the hubs sities, most diverse and well-educated populations, of global integration. They are the engines of growth wealthiest multinationals, and most powerful inter- for their countries and the gateways to the resources national organizations are connected to the rest of their regions. In many ways, the story of global- of the world like nowhere else. But, more than

ISTOCKPHOTO.COM GRAPHICS BY TRAVIS DAUB ization is the story of urbanization. anything, the cities that rise to the top of the list are

November | December 2008 69 [ The 2008 Global Cities Index ]

Dimension those that continue to forge global links despite e t

g intensely complex economic environments. They an y h emen ence are the ones making urbanization work to their c i g al a Ex tivit it g per c advantage by providing the vast opportunities of n on E Ex ti g ss A

n global integration to their people; measuring cities’ ral cal ne ki tu iti man Cap l usi u ol international presence captures the most accurate nforma

Ran City B Hu I C P 1 NewYork 1 1 4 3 2 picture of the way the world works. 2 London 4 2 3 1 5 So, Foreign Policy teamed up with A.T. 3 Paris 3 11 1 2 4 Kearney and The Chicago Council on Global Affairs 4 Tokyo 2 6 7 7 6 5 HongKong 5 5 6 26 40 to create the Global Cities Index, a uniquely com- 6 LosAngeles 15 4 11 5 17 prehensive ranking of the ways in which cities are 7 Singapore 6 7 15 37 16 integrating with the rest of the world. In constructing 8 Chicago 12 3 24 20 20 9 Seoul 7 35 5 10 19 this index of the world’s most global cities, we have 10 Toronto 26 10 18 4 24 collected and analyzed a broad array of data, as well 11 Washington 35 17 10 14 1 as tapped the brainpower of such renowned cities 7 12 Beijing 9 22 28 19 experts as Saskia Sassen, Witold Rybczynski, Janet 13 Brussels 19 34 2 32 3 14 Madrid 14 18 9 24 33 Abu-Lughod, and Peter Taylor. 15 San Francisco 27 12 22 23 29 Specifically, the Global Cities Index ranks cities’ 16 Sydney 17 8 27 36 43 metro areas according to 24 metrics across five dimen- 17 Berlin 28 29 12 8 14 18 Vienna 13 31 29 11 9 sions. The first is business activity: including the value 19 Moscow 23 15 33 6 39 of its capital markets, the number of Fortune Global 20 Shanghai 8 25 42 35 18 500 firms headquartered there, and the volume of the 21 Frankfurt 11 43 19 13 34 22 Bangkok 18 14 23 41 13 goods that pass through the city. The second dimen- 23 Amsterdam 10 38 25 12 56 sion measures human capital, or how well the city acts 24 Stockholm 25 33 13 16 27 as a magnet for diverse groups of people and talent. 25 Mexico City 34 23 32 9 11 26 Zurich 30 20 8 31 54 This includes the size of a city’s immigrant population, 27 Dubai 21 19 14 44 44 the number of international schools, and the per- 28 Istanbul 32 13 34 43 8 centage of residents with university degrees. The third 29 Boston 37 9 35 33 50 30 Rome 31 30 30 15 22 dimension is information exchange—how well news 31 São Paulo 16 36 31 27 23 and information is dispersed about and to the rest of 32 Miami 33 21 26 39 21 the world. The number of international news bureaus, 12 33 BuenosAires 40 16 43 25 the amount of international news in the leading local 34 Taipei 20 49 21 40 15 35 Munich 29 27 49 18 36 papers, and the number of broadband subscribers 36 Copenhagen 36 41 16 42 28 round out that dimension. 37 Atlanta 38 24 39 21 32 The final two areas of analysis are unusual for 38 Cairo 48 28 17 45 10 39 Milan 24 42 41 28 37 most rankings of globalized cities or states. The 40 Kuala Lumpur 22 46 40 49 38 fourth is cultural experience, or the level of diverse 41 NewDelhi 47 50 20 46 35 attractions for international residents and travelers. 42 Tel Aviv 51 45 38 17 31 43 Bogotá 46 26 51 34 25 That includes everything from how many major 44 Dublin 41 39 48 30 48 sporting events a city hosts to the number of per- 45 Osaka 54 32 45 29 51 forming arts venues it boasts. The final dimension— 46 Manila 43 48 47 38 26 47 Rio de Janeiro 44 47 50 22 46 political engagement—measures the degree to which 48 Jakarta 42 40 36 51 41 a city influences global policymaking and dialogue. 49 Mumbai 39 37 53 52 52 How? By examining the number of embassies and 50 Johannesburg 45 55 37 48 45

51 Caracas 52 54 44 55 42 consulates, major think tanks, international organ- 52 Guangzhou 49 53 54 50 30 izations, sister city relationships, and political

53 Lagos 58 56 46 60 53 conferences a city hosts. We learned long ago that 54 Shenzhen 50 59 57 56 47 55 HoChi Minh City 55 52 58 53 58 [ 56 Dhaka 59 51 55 54 49 For More Online 57 Karachi 56 57 52 59 55 58 Bangalore 53 44 60 57 60 See which cities outperformed their home countries 59 Chongqing 60 60 56 47 57 at ForeignPolicy.com/extras/cities. 60 Kolkata 57 58 59 58 59 [

70 Foreign Policy globalization is much more than the simple lowering Kong and Singapore finished at fifth and seventh, of market barriers and economic walls. And because respectively. Chicago’s strong human-capital per- the Global Cities Index pulls in these measures of cul- formance sent it into the eighth spot. What’s more, tural, social, and policy indicators, it offers a more several strong performers are emerging from for- complete picture of a city’s global standing—not merly closed societies: Beijing (No. 12), Moscow simply economic or financial ties. (19), Shanghai (20), and Dubai (27). The new, some- The 60 cities included in this first Global Cities times abbreviated, often state-led, paths to global Index run the gamut of the modern urban experience. There’s thriving, wealthy London, with its firmly entrenched global networks THE BEST CITIES TO GET A DEGREE built on the city’s history as capi- 1. London 6. Sydney 11. Istanbul 16. Zurich tal of an empire. But there are also 2. Chicago 7. Boston 12. Bangkok 17. Beijing Chongqing, Dhaka, and Lagos, 3. Tokyo 8. Los Angeles 13. Toronto 18. Buenos Aires cities whose recent surges tell us a 4. New York 9. Paris 14. Madrid 19. Mexico City great deal about the direction glob- 5. Singapore 10. San Francisco 15. Moscow 20. Washington alization is heading and whose RANKINGS BASED ON NUMBER OF INHABITANTS WITH UNIVERSITY DEGREES, NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL STUDENTS AT THE TERTIARY LEVEL, INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS AT THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY LEVEL, AND TOP GLOBAL UNIVERSI- experiences offer lessons to other TIES LOCATED IN THE CITIES. aspiring global cities. The cities we highlight are world leaders in important areas such as finance, policymaking, and dominance these cities are treading threaten the old culture. A few are megacities in the developing formulas that London, New York, and Los Angeles world whose demand for resources means they must (No. 6) followed to reach their high spots. nurture close ties with their neighbors and provide As diverse as they are, the most successful glob- services to large numbers of immigrants. Some are al cities have several things in common: As New gateways to their region. Others host important York proves, global cities are those that excel across international institutions. In other words, they rep- multiple dimensions. Even Shanghai’s staggering, resent a broad cross section of the world’s centers of decades-long double-digit annual economic growth commerce, culture, and communication. alone can’t make it global. The city also must determine how to use that wealth to influence policy, attract the brightest young minds, and accurately THE WINNER’S CIRCLE portray the rest of the world to its citizens. Global So, which city topped them all? If anything, the results cities continuously adapt to changing circumstances. prove there is no such thing as a perfect global city; no London may be the city hardest hit by the global city dominated all dimensions of the index. However, credit crunch, but chances are that it will leverage its a few came close. New York emerged as the No. 1 glob- abundant global financial ties to bounce back. Sin- al city this year, followed by London, Paris, and Tokyo. gapore, San Francisco (15), and Mexico City (25) The Big Apple beat out other global powerhouses will no doubt be taking notes. largely on the back of its financial markets, through the As the world readjusts to the fits and starts of a networks of its multinationals, and by the strength of volatile global economy, as well as other transna- its diverse creative class. Overall runner-up London won tional problems such as climate change, human traf- the cultural dimension by a mile, with Paris and New ficking, and fuel shortages, the Global Cities Index York trailing far behind. Perhaps surprisingly for a will track the way cities maneuver as their popula- city known more for museums than modems, third- tions grow and the world shrinks. Although we ranked Paris led the world in the information exchange can’t predict next year’s winner, the odds are good category. No. 4 Tokyo ranked highly thanks to its that New York will have to fight to stay on top. strong showing in business. And, though it finished 11th overall, Washington easily beat out New York, © Copyright 2008, A.T. Kearney, Inc., The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Brussels, and Paris as the leader in global policy. and Washingtonpost.Newsweek Interactive, LLC. All rights reserved. A.T. Although the winners may be the usual sus- Kearney is a registered service mark of A.T. Kearney, Inc. Foreign Policy and pects, they have plenty of new competition on their its logo are registered trademarks owned by Washingtonpost.Newsweek Inter- heels. Buoyed by their strong financial links, Hong active, a subsidiary of The Washington Post Company.

November | December 2008 71 [ The 2008 Global Cities Index ] How to Be a Global City here is no single correct path a city should tread to become global. But how should cities that want to boost their international profile go about it? They could follow any of the tried-and-true models thatT came before them. Just look at the various ways some of this year’s 60 global cities manage to use urbanization and globalization to their advantage. Open Cities National Leaders What they look like: Large cities with a free press, open What they look like: Large cities that shape the collective markets, easy access to information and technology, low identity of their countries. They usually have homogenous barriers to foreign trade and investment, and loads of populations, and their new urban policies tend to evoke a cultural opportunities. They often shared history. They do well in rely on a heavy service industry international business, but not and are outward looking, rather because they’re necessarily than focused on domestic affairs. globally connected; in these Who they are: New York (#1), places, foreign firms can find London (#2), Paris (#3) something no other city offers. Who they are: Tokyo (#4), Seoul (#9), Beijing (#12) Lifestyle Centers What they look like: Laid-back cities that enjoy a high quality of Policy Hubs life and focus on having fun. They What they look like: Cities with attract worldly people and offer outsized influence on national cultural experiences to spare. and international policy debates. Who they are: Los Angeles (#6), Their think tanks, international Toronto (#10) organizations, and political institutions shape policies that affect all people, and they tend to be full of diplomats and Regional journalists from somewhere else. Who they are: Washington (#11), Gateways Brussels (#13) What they look like: Efficient economic powerhouses with favorable incentives for business- Platform Cities es and easy access to the natural What they look like: Large hubs resources of their region. They attract smart, well-trained in typically small countries that attract huge amounts of people from around the world, and they often must reinvent investment through their strategic locations and international themselves to remain competitive. connections. Firms don’t set up shop in these cities to invest Who they are: Hong Kong (#5), Singapore (#7), in the local economy; they move there so they can reach Chicago (#8) important foreign financial markets without dealing with the region’s political headaches. Who they are: Amsterdam (#23), Dubai (#27), THE BEST CITIES TO DO BUSINESS Copenhagen (#36) 1. New York 6. Singapore 11. Frankfurt 16. São Paulo RANKINGS BASED ON CITIES THAT ARE HQ OF FORTUNE GLOBAL 500 FIRMS, CITIES 2. Tokyo 7. Seoul 12. Chicago 17. Bangkok WHERE THE TOP 40 GLOBAL SERVICE FIRMS HAVE OFFICES, THE STRENGTH OF THEIR 3. Paris 8. Shanghai 13. Vienna 18. Brussels CAPITAL MARKETS, THE VOLUME OF THEIR FLOW OF GOODS, AND THE NUMBER OF 4. London 9. Beijing 14. Madrid 19. Taipei GLOBAL PROFESSIONAL ASSOCIATION CON- FERENCES HELD IN THE CITIES. 5. Hong Kong 10. Amsterdam 15. Los Angeles 20. Sydney PHOTOS: ISTOCKPHOTO.COM, ANITA BUGGE/CORBIS, CHINA PHOTOS/GETTY IMAGES

72 Foreign Policy The Mayors of the Moment o city globalizes on its own. But with shrewd investments and smart urban planning, a mayor can help turn a region- Nal player into a global powerhouse. Here’s how three of the world’s top mayors are climbing the ladder:

Klaus Wowereit MAYOR OF BERLIN (#17) The concept of the global city isn’t lost on Klaus Wowereit. Since taking office in 2001, the popular, 55-year-old mayor of Berlin has tied his fate to rebrand- ing the city as a glamorous, artistic model of urban renewal. And Berlin’s reputation has thrived as a vibrant, tolerant, creative metropolis under his watch. Wowereit cites the construction of a gigantic international airport, the successful 2006 World Cup, and a cultural festival called “Asia-Pacific Weeks” as landmark accomplishments. His critics claim that he focuses more on the city’s image than its crumbling infrastructure or budget shortfalls. “We are poor but sexy,” admits Wowereit. A fun fantasy it may be, but Berliners will probably only be willing to play the starving artist for so long.

Syed Mustafa Kamal MAYOR OF KARACHI (#57) The new mayor of Karachi is an unlikely poster child for innovative urban planning. The 36-year-old Syed Mustafa Kamal governs a city that’s more often in the news for religious violence than cosmopolitan ways. But the hard-charging Kamal is looking to change all that. He’s courting foreign investment, encouraging international ties, and boosting the city’s tourism. Kamal isn’t shy about his goals: He has said he wants to turn Karachi into the “next Dubai.” His Green Karachi project aims to plant thousands of trees in the city. No stranger to Karachi’s bare-knuckled politics, Kamal isn’t letting anything stand in the way of his grand plans: He has threatened to arrest anyone who tries to cut down the new saplings.

Wang Hongju MAYOR OF CHONGQING (#59) Think Michael Bloomberg has his hands full? Wang Hongju is mayor of the fastest-growing city on the planet, one whose metropolitan area is already bursting at 32 million—more than the population of Iraq. But Wang isn’t letting China’s urban revolution happen under his feet. He has been known to collect advice from citizens (for cash rewards), from mayors of sister cities such as Toronto, and even from the works of Thomas Friedman. Wang has sought heavy foreign investment, which his administration says has topped a whopping $3 billion in the past five years. In 2005, he claimed his antipoverty programs had helped 3 million Chongqing residents rise out of poverty in the previous eight years. Wang rarely shies from reporters’ questions, even about hot-button topics such as Tibet or SARS. His approach, a stark depar- ture from Communist Chinese officials of old, has made the 63-year- old Wang the face of a new breed of Chinese mayors.

THE BEST CITIES TO GET SOME CULTURE 1. London 6. Moscow 11. Vienna 16. Stockholm 2. Paris 7. Tokyo 12. Amsterdam 17. Tel Aviv 3. New York 8. Berlin 13. Frankfurt 18. Munich 4. Toronto 9. Mexico City 14. Washington 19. Beijing 5. Los Angeles 10. Seoul 15. Rome 20. Chicago

RANKINGS BASED ON MAJOR SPORTING EVENTS IN CITIES, INTERNATIONAL TRAVELERS, CULINARY OFFERINGS, MUSEUMS, AND PERFORMING ARTS.

November | December 2008 73 [ The 2008 Global Cities Index ]

Beijing (#12) Long in Shanghai’s global shadow, The Biggest Beijing’s successful Olympic spectacle earned it much international respect. In this year’s index, the city scores Boomtowns as the highest-ranking megacity from a poor country. But Beijing isn’t stopping to take a breath: Among other projects, it his year, for the first time, more people live in has announced a new bullet train to Shanghai, which, when cities than in rural areas. And, increasingly, completed in 2013, will be the fastest in the world. thoseT cities are gigantic. The United Nations counts 19 megacities—or those with more than 10 million Buenos Aires (#33) A cultural hub of people—throughout the world. In 2025, it expects the Americas, Buenos Aires is intent on showcas- to see eight more join their ranks: Chennai, ing elegant design in planning the city’s future. It invests Guangzhou, Jakarta, Kinshasa, Lagos, Lahore, $25 million each year to promote industrial design, urban Paris, and Shenzhen. planning, and the arts. The city has seen a construction In this year’s Global Cities Index, cities in rich boom since the dark days of Argentina’s debt default, and it countries overwhelmingly outperform their coun- continues to draw prominent engineering and software terparts in poorer countries in cultivating global firms. One problem city planners will need to solve as its ties. Three of the top 15 cities are megacities from wealthier population booms? Traffic. developed countries; six of the bottom 15 are megacities from the poor world. Urbanization can help cities that have already become wealthy climb higher, while anchoring Mexico City (#25) Deadly drug violence down those that have the unlucky fate of being has plagued the city in recent months, prompting located in a poor state. Part of the problem is a an anticrime rally of 150,000 people in August. Its landfills vicious, reinforcing cycle: The challenges any large are overflowing. And now, engineers are trying to avert an city faces—how to deal with sanitation, educa- even worse threat: Low-lying slums, the old historic district, tion, infrastructure, crime, and taxes—are much and the city’s subways could be flooded with raw sewage easier to solve with cash in the bank and well- from its crumbling drainage system. trained officials at the helm. However, a few of these developing-country Dhaka (#56) With massive traffic jams and megacities are breaking out of that cycle and figur- sewage-filled rivers, Dhaka could arguably be a test ing out how to make urbanization translate into case of a megacity gone wrong. Local papers recently report- globalization, while several others teeter on the edge: ed that coordination between city planners was so poor that newly constructed roads had to be torn up because they for- got to run the water, sewer, and gas lines first. The good news for Dhaka: There’s likely nowhere to go but up. Megacities In the Index: KEY: Megacities in Developed Countries Megacities in Developing Countries

74 Foreign Policy

Chinapolis Shenzhen (#54) Population: 7.2 million t’s the most rapidly urbanizing country on the planet. More than 170 Population in 2025: 10.2 million Imass-transit systems are slated for construction by 2025. And by 2030, Claim to Fame: Shenzhen has seen the the country could count more than 1 billion people among its city dwellers. most rapid growth among all China’s So, when we talk about urbanization and the ways in which cities are grow- cities. At some points in the past 30 ing, China can’t be ignored. The statistics are staggering: While the Unit- years, it grew at 40 percent a year. ed States has nine cities with a million or more people, China has nearly Major Industries: IT, software, con- 100. Five are featured in the index (as well as Hong Kong), with Beijing struction, food processing, medical topping its Chinese neighbors, at 12th place, and Chongqing rounding out supplies the bottom, at 59th. Their mixed performances prove that even cities that GDP per capita: $11,445 develop thanks to the heavy-handed dictates of a central government can No. of Days to Start a Business: follow their own unique paths. Around 30 Roadblocks to Development: Traffic, high rates of HIV/AIDS, labor unrest. Beijing (#12) Guangzhou (#52) Population: 11.1 million Population: 8.4 million Chongqing (#59) Population in 2025: 14.5 million Population in 2025: 11.8 million Population: 6.4 million Claim to Fame: China’s cultural, edu- Claim to Fame: The largest and Population in 2025: 7.3 million cational, and political capital. Host of wealthiest city in the south. An (2015) the 2008 Summer Olympics and now important seaport and connection to Claim to Fame: Often called the home to the world’s largest airport. the rest of the world. “Chinese Chicago,” the city is an Major Industries: Government, Major Industries: Automobiles, industrial center and gateway to tourism, chemicals, electronics, textiles petrochemicals, electronics, telecom, China’s western regions. GDP per capita: $9,237 shipbuilding Major Industries: Mining, automobiles, No. of Days to Start a Business: 37 GDP per capita: $9,970 textiles, chemicals, manufacturing Roadblocks to Growth: Pollution, dust No. of Days to Start a Business: 28 GDP per capita: $5,500 storms, avoiding a post-Olympic slow- Roadblocks to Development: Crime, No. of Days to Start a Business: 39 down, overcrowding. traffic, wide gaps between the rich Roadblocks to Development: Air pol- and the poor, clashes between lution, potential of landslides, drought. Shanghai (#20) migrants and locals. Population: 15 million Population in 2025: 19.4 million Claim to Fame: The country’s economic capital THE BEST CITIES TO BE A DIPLOMAT Major Industries: Banking, finance, 1. Washington 6. Tokyo 11. Mexico City 16. Singapore fashion, electronics, shipbuilding 2. New York 7. Beijing 12. Buenos Aires 17. Los Angeles GDP per capita: $9,584 3. Brussels 8. Istanbul 13. Bangkok 18. Shanghai No. of Days to Start a Business: 35 4. Paris 9. Vienna 14. Berlin 19. Seoul Roadblocks to Development: Danger 5. London 10. Cairo 15. Taipei 20. Chicago of a bursting economic bubble, RANKINGS BASED ON A CITY’S NUMBER OF EMBASSIES, CONSULATES, AND TRADE MISSIONS; THINK TANKS; PARTNER CITIES; LOCAL ORGANIZATIONS WITH INTERNATIONAL REACH; HEADQUARTERS OF INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS; AND replenishing energy supplies, a slow- POLITICAL CONFERENCES HELD IN THE CITY.

ISTOCKPHOTO.COM down in the global economy, traffic.

November | December 2008 75 [ The 2008 Global Cities Index ]

The problem for today’s developing giants like A Clean Break Lagos (53), Ho Chi Minh City (55), and Bangalore (58) is a matter of scale. Their populations are so very week, a million more people move to cities much bigger, and their resources are scarcer, that around the world. It’s a constant, quiet migra- they don’t have the luxury of decades to solve their tionE that amounts to adding the entire population sanitation problems. All of which means it of Dublin to the planet’s urban landscape every few may be harder for the next generation of cities days. It’s easy to assume that the waste, pollution, to clean up its act. and population booms that this rapid urbanization breeds inevitably lead to dirty Dirty Cities vs. cities. New Delhi’s sewage- filled rivers and Moscow’s Globalization Score gag-inducing air attest to that. Wealthier lifestyles mean more waste, and more people mean dirtier cities, right? NewN York Not necessarily. Using the London

-> 2007 Mercer Consulting 10 WWashington ranking of health and sani- Beijing

tation around the world, we OBAL ---- 5 GL StockholmStoc found that the most global ZurichZ Istanbul cities aren’t the dirtiest cities. 0 In fact, some of the biggest,

most integrated cities are OBAL MORE Jakarta Kuala Lumpur some of the cleanest urban

areas on the planet. Wash- -LESSGL LagosL ington (11), Stockholm (24), <---- Ho Chi Minh City Zurich (26), and Boston (29) BangaloreB rank in the cleanest top 20 <----- LESS DIRTY MORE DIRTY ------> of 215 cities, for example.

[ Want to Know More? ]

For seven years, the Foreign Policy/A.T. Kearney Globalization Index measured global integration among states. Explore previous years’ findings, discover hidden success stories, and see why Singapore surged when South Korea sank, at ForeignPolicy.com. There, you can also find complete charts and methodology for the Global Cities Index.InThe Endless City (New York: Phaidon Press, 2008), Richard Burdett and Deyan Sudjic examine the various urban challenges of six global cities, including index topper New York. In “Beyond City Limits” (Foreign Policy, January/February 2008), Burdett explains the vastly different ways in which urbanization is playing out around the world.

For two seminal works in the study of global urban spaces, read Saskia Sassen’s The Global City: New York, London, Tokyo (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001) and Joel Kotkin’s The City: A Global History (New York: Modern Library, 2005). Citymayors.com offers extensive statistics about the world’s cities and their governments. Metropolis magazine and City Journal are excellent, lively sources about the ever evolving role that cities play in shaping our culture, societies, and daily lives. »For links to relevant Web sites, access to the FP Archive, and a comprehensive index of related Foreign Policy articles, go to ForeignPolicy.com.

76 Foreign Policy World Economic Outlook A unique international exercise in information-gathering and analysis An extraordinary confluence of global forces has kept the world economy strong in the past few years, but there are now numerous challenges to growth. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF’s leading economists’ analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium terms. It is a respected, one-stop, trusted resource offering remarkable insight, balance, and perspective to decision makers and policymakers worldwide. Published at least twice yearly, the World Economic Outlook presents the outlook for growth, inflation, trade, and other economic developments in a clear, practical format. Each WEO considers the issues affecting advanced and emerging economies. The analytic chapters provide the global intelligence required to deal with global interdependence. These analyses focus on pressing concerns or hotly debated issues, putting prospects for liquidity, infl ation, and growth into context. The statistical appendix presents historical data as well as projections and selected series from World Economic Outlook database updated for each report. The October 2008 edition examines commodity prices and infl ation, economic cycles in the aftermath of financial crises, the role of fi scalpolicy during downturns, and current account imbalances in emerging economies. Recent analytic chapters have examined climate change, the housing cycle, commodity prices, capital infl ows, globalization and inequality, and the global business cycle. Annual subscription: $108. Paperback. Published twice yearly. ISSN: 0256-6877. Stock# WEOSEA Global Financial Stability Report Tracking global capital fl ows The GFSR assesses key issues in global financial market developments in order to identify systemic vulnerabilities. By calling attention to fault lines in the global financial system, the report aims to play a role in preventing crises and, when they do occur, helping to mitigate their effects and offer policy advice, thereby contributing to global financial stability and sustained economic growth. As a semiannual report, the GFSR focuses on current conditions, examining structural issues and financial imbalances that could pose risks to financial market stability and sustained market access by emerging economies. Along with the IMF’s semiannual World Economic Outlook, the GFSR is a key vehicle for communicating the IMF’s multilateral surveillance. The GFSR also draws out the financial ramifications of economic imbalances highlighted by the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, making it an indispensable companion publication. Annual subscription: $108. Paperback. Published twice yearly. ISSN: 1729-701X. Stock# GFSREA

For detailed information or to place an order, please go to www.imfbookstore.org/FP0811 and use promotion code FP0811p during checkout or send an email to [email protected] quoting the promotion code. [ ARGUMENT ] Power to the People

Why it’s the poor—not the experts—who can best solve the food crisis.

By Eric Werker E very nongovernmental organization has a mission statement. For example, care, one of the world’s largest and best-funded ngos, explains its mission as serving “individuals and families in the poorest communities in the world. Drawing strength from our global

diversity, resources and experience, we promote inno- offering a rare opportunity for farmers in these coun- vative solutions and are advocates for global respon- tries to make a tidy profit. Dumping imported food sibility.” Indeed, care has teams of experts with on the market will cut into many farmers’ incomes years of experience in more than 70 countries, and and thus might do more harm than good. Low-wage its efforts to tackle the “underlying causes of poverty” work programs could help people avoid hunger, but are impressive. Implicit in its mission statement, like they might also take farmers away from their fields those of most ngos, is the notion that care is excep- just when farming is becoming lucrative. tionally knowledgeable about how to meet the needs Priorities, moreover, vary from person to person of the world’s poor. But does it know best? and from place to place. A West African farmer might Take one of the most confounding global prob- choose to forgo next season’s seeds and fertilizer to put lems today: the skyrocketing cost of food. Prices food on the table today. A garbage collector in Jakar- for staple crops such as rice and wheat have more ta might sacrifice trips to the doctor to keep from than doubled since 2006, putting an enormous strain going hungry. Mexican parents might keep their kids on the 1.2 billion people living on a dollar a day or home from school as the cost of education gets priced less. In 2004, a typical poor farmer in Udaipur, out of the family budget. Aid agencies can’t always India, was already spending more than half his daily predict what the poor value most. dollar of income on food—and that was before The first step in truly addressing the food crisis, grain prices went through the roof. therefore, is abandoning the idea that the donor ngos and relief agencies are on the front lines of knows best. Instead of more advice or another bag of this global crisis, distributing food and other forms rice, the poor should be given relief vouchers. The of assistance to the hardest-hit victims. But food basic premise is simple: Give poor people a choice handouts may be the last thing that poor countries about what type of assistance they receive. Vouchers, need right now. In many of the worst-stricken places, backed by major donor countries, could be distributed agriculture is the top employer. High food prices are to needy recipients in the areas hardest hit by the food crisis. The recipients could then redeem the vouchers Eric Werker is assistant professor at Harvard Business School. in exchange for approved goods (such as food or

78 Foreign Policy fertilizer) or services (such as healthcare or job train- off. Products that people aren’t willing to buy typically ing). Relief vouchers would allow families to meet don’t survive long. It is time to expose the nonprofit their most pressing needs without harming the very sector to the same market feedback. markets that can bring about permanent solutions. At If that scares some ngos, it shouldn’t. Too often, the same time, they would give firms and ngosan they must cater to the whims of donors when they incentive to provide a wider array of services. would prefer to serve those in need. Without finan- Relief vouchers could also save ngos millions of cial support, they would never be able to conduct dollars that victims never see. Figuring out what their important work. But if a significant share of people need is hard ngos’ financing enough during a natu- came through ral disaster, when a voucher redemp- helicopter flyover can tion, they would be reveal the physical able to focus their damage. But the effects attention on the of the food crisis are poor without wor- much harder to diag- rying as much about nose. Each ngo must pleasing large foun- conduct household dations and govern- surveys, hire experts, ment agencies, meet with local gov- which often have ernment officials and their own agendas. foreign donors, and Vouchers, of then write grant appli- course, aren’t a sil- cations and raise funds There’s no free lunch. ver bullet. Corrup- before it can ever help tion and fraud will its first victim. Meanwhile, monitoring these efforts be a concern. Moreover, some needs are best deliv- eats up precious resources. With vouchers, agencies ered at the community level, such as clean water, or would simply follow the invisible hand of the at the national level, such as public-health campaigns. market—in this case, the market for relief. And in countries with well-developed national Relief vouchers would solve another problem: safety nets, such as South Africa, there may be no accountability. Most ngos today answer only to the need to bypass functioning institutions by introduc- donors who fund their operations, not to their actu- ing vouchers. In some cases, relief vouchers would be al clients—the poor. Most major donors do their impractical. Aid workers are fortunate if they utmost to make sure their money is spent as prom- can even reach those in need in a failed state like ised. But even donors whose hearts are in the right Somalia or a dictatorship like Burma. place cannot anticipate the exact needs of so many Voucher schemes have already shown promise. different communities. With no mechanism for the Catholic Relief Services pioneered their use in 2000 poor to communicate their priorities, nonprofits and by setting up “seed fairs” for farmers. In Ethiopia their donors are only accountable to themselves. A in 2004, the organization successfully introduced system of relief vouchers would change that. livestock vouchers for sheep, goats, and even Such a radical shift in accountability will have veterinary services. The Red Cross distributed major ramifications. The development world is littered vouchers to vulnerable families in the West Bank in with projects that keep getting funded long after they 2002 and 2003; the program was only discontinued are no longer useful. Under a voucher system, if an for political reasons. Governments have long used ngo delivered a product that no one needed, or failed other types of vouchers on larger scales: for schools, to deliver what it promised, beneficiaries would stop in many developing countries, and in the form of coming to it for relief. This is why nonprofits work- food stamps in the United States. Vouchers, in short, ing for vouchers wouldn’t have to waste funds on can work—and it’s time to extend their logic to a expensive evaluations. After all, Pepsi does not have much wider array of problems. It’s time to give the

THOMAS GRABKA/LAIF/REDUX to prove whether its soda makes its customers better poor the power of choice.

November | December 2008 79 INOTHER WORDS [ REVIEWS OF THE WORLD’S MOST NOTEWORTHY BOOKS ]

A Fight to Protect By James Traub

The Thin Blue Line: How a politically engaged, rather than ner. In his provocative new book, Humanitarianism Went to War rigorously neutral, humanitarian- The Thin Blue Line, Foley writes, By Conor Foley ism. But in retrospect, it’s also clear “The broader lesson from a range 256 pages, London: Verso, 2008 that the humanitarian corridor to of international interventions in Sarajevo sent the United Nations, recent years is that it will always n June 28, 1992, French and those it hoped to protect, be difficult to impose governance President François down a disastrous path. Peace- and assistance mechanisms from Mitterrand and Bernard keepers stood by helplessly while the outside.” OKouchner, the minister of state for Serbian gunners in the hills mowed Like the journalist David Rieff, humanitarian affairs, arrived by down Bosnian civilians. The peace- author of ABedfortheNight, helicopter in the war-ravaged cap- keepers became, quite literally, and the scholar Alex de Waal, ital of Yugoslavia. It was a daring hostage to their own mission: Ser- Foley has come to view the and dangerous bid to break the bian leader Slobodan Milosevic history of humanitarian interven- chokehold that Bosnian Serb mili- was able to ward off a nato attack tion as one long episode of tias were applying to Sarajevo’s by threatening to capture or kill hypocrisy and failure. Thus while Muslim population. And it worked: the lightly armed blue helmets. And “liberal interventionists” argue Mitterrand reached a deal with the Balkan calamity plunged that the international community Radovan Karadzic, the Bosnian toward the Götterdämmerung of failed the people of Bosnia by Serb leader, to reopen the airport Srebrenica. offering a humanitarian response and to permit relief agencies to Humanitarianism engagé to what was, in fact, a military serve the city’s besieged citizens. sounds tremendously noble, not challenge, and has done so once The U.N. Security Council swiftly to mention very exciting, until you again in Darfur, Foley advances approved the dispatch of peace- try it in practice. Conor Foley is a the opposite argument. He claims, keepers as a humanitarian protec- veteran of what he would say are first, that humanitarian actors tion force, and crucial supplies too many such misbegotten mis- have made themselves the hand- began flowing into the capital. sions. He has worked for the Unit- maiden—and the pretext—of mil- The helicopter ride was a high ed Nations and for human rights itary interventions; second, that water mark for Mitterrand, for the and humanitarian organizations by doing so, humanitarianism has adventurous Kouchner, and for the in Kosovo, Afghanistan, and post- sacrificed its precious neutral idea, still quite new at the time, of tsunami Indonesia, among other stance; and finally, that the sacri- places. The experiences left him fice has been largely for naught, James Traub is contributing writer for quite chastened about the limits of since external attempts to impose the New York Times Magazine. His latest foreign intervention, whether in good governance or halt atroci- book is The Freedom Agenda: Why the form of military action, ties are likely to fail. America Must Spread Democracy (Just nation-building, or emergency In his catalog of humanitarian Not the Way George Bush Did) (New assistance—and quite critical of interventions, Foley passes over York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2008). humanitarian heroes like Kouch- those by non-Western states, such

80 Foreign Policy as India in what is now Bangladesh in 1971, or Viet- nam’s in Cambodia in 1979, perhaps because they don’t implicate humanitarian actors or a specifically Western view of human rights (or perhaps because they more or less succeeded). Humanitarian intervention, for him, is a creature of Western activism, largely chan- neled through the United Nations, in the years immediately following the end of the Cold War. Thus he begins his history with the colossal and unprecedented U.S.-led mission to protect the humanitarian effort in Somalia. Foley observes that agencies like care and Oxfam Ameri- ca, whose aid was being stolen and whose workers were being killed, pressed for a military force. These were the blithe and palmy days of intervention- ism—the new U.N. force was just then assembling in Bosnia— and few could have imagined the consequences of such a commitment. U.S. Army Rangers wound up chasing a murder- ous warlord through the streets of Mogadishu; the “Black Hawk Down” nightmare, in which the corpses of American sol- Foley thinks that the appetite Annan believed that Milosevic diers were dragged through the for intervention far exceeds the planned a massive campaign of dust, brought those consequences need. He contends that “there is no expulsion and favored a military home to Americans all too brutal- evidence” that the massacres of response. And none of the Koso- ly. Foley views the Somali inter- Kosovar civilians by Serbian forces vars I met a few years later wished vention as an unmitigated deba- in 1998 and early 1999 “were part that nato had held off. cle, not only for the country but of a systematic campaign of ‘ethnic Moreover, what is one to do for his own profession. In Somalia, cleansing.’” It was the nato bom- when peaceful means really are he asserts, humanitarianism began bardment itself, he asserts, that unavailing? Humanitarian groups FP to surrender to the logic of armed caused the Serbs to drive great called loudly for intervention in intervention. numbers of Kosovars from their Rwanda; and in that case, with homes and that resulted in the Somalia fresh in memory, no one For More Online overwhelming portion of the listened. Foley presumably wishes Read FP’s interview with The Thin deaths suffered during this period. that the interventionists had suc- Blue Line author Conor Foley at: He’s certainly right about the fig- ceeded, for he tells the familiar story ForeignPolicy.com/extras/foley. ures and the chronology, but even of the United Nations’ failure to

ILLUSTRATION BY ESTHER[ BUNNING FOR ] so peace-loving a figure as Kofi heed the desperate calls from

November | December 2008 81 [ In Other Words ]

Roméo Dallaire, the Canadian gen- help less, but he would have us In 2005, the world’s heads of eral who headed the small peace- impose less. One of the few state, gathered at the U.N. Gener- keeping force there. But Foley does- encouraging stories he tells con- al Assembly, adopted the doctrine n’t actually say that an intervention cerns Mozambique, which weaned of “the responsibility to would have been justified—nor that itself from dependence on foreign protect,” which stipulates that “Rwanda never again” is a rallying aid and inscribed in its disaster- states have an obligation to protect cry worth raising. preparedness report a determina- their citizens from crimes against Despite claims from the “anti- tion to stop “running to interna- humanity and other mass atroci- imperialist” left—which Foley does tional donors without first ties, and that, should they be not countenance—states do not exhausting national capacities.” unable or unwilling to do so, other lightly send soldiers into battle to But we should ask ourselves states incur that obligation. That halt atrocities across the globe. whether international relations are responsibility, in the most extreme Humanitarian interventions are now plagued by too little respect for cases, includes military action. waged in countries so far gone that sovereignty, or too much. R2P, as the norm has come to be all alternatives look bad and almost Certainly if you were to ask the known, formalizes the principle, all consequences ugly. And yet we leadersoftheGroupof77atthe which lies at the heart of humani- must choose. Foley’s suggestion that United Nations or regional bodies tarian intervention, that the right humanitarian organizations in such as the African Union (AU), of people to be free from the worst Somalia should have sought to “re-empower traditional community leaders through dialogue,” rather than beat the drums for Humanitarian interventions are wagedincountriessofar military action, does not sound all that persuasive. And even that gone that all alternatives lookbad and almost all feckless engagement saved several hundred thousand lives. Foley also consequencesugly.And yetwemust choose. argues that both Kosovo and Bosnia remain ethnically riven and enfeebled states. That’s true; but the answer would be “too little,” as forms of mistreatment supersedes it’s also true that the Balkans are no it is for Foley. That’s why, for exam- the right of states to be free from longer a war zone and that Serbia ple, efforts to penalize Khartoum external intervention. It is scarce- is a democracy, if a tenuous one. Is for unleashing a campaign of mur- ly possible in the aftermath of that so very bad an outcome? der and ethnic cleansing in Darfur Rwanda to argue otherwise, and In later chapters of The Thin have largely come to naught; that’s so no one does directly. But the Blue Line, Foley wrestles with the why the AU is seeking to postpone principle is under attack from the difficult question of how, or by a year the war crimes indict- absolutists of sovereignty, a group whether, humanitarian aid can be ment of Sudan’s President Omar that includes not just Iran and used to force political change. He Hassan al-Bashir by the Interna- Venezuela but India and Egypt. offers hard wisdom distilled from tional Criminal Court. These And the war in Iraq has made it all years of experience. Humanitari- largely Western-inspired efforts are too easy for the absolutists to claim ans, he argues, should worry less said to constitute an assault on that the United States and other about conformity to the suppos- Sudan’s sovereignty—as if the pre- Western countries will cite the edly universal principles and rogatives and protections that moral imperative of R2P to inter- inalienable rights that preoccupy belong to Sudan and its citizens vene when and where they wish. Westerners than they should about had been transferred to Bashir and Perhaps that’s a real danger, but “building trust” among donors, his regime. Are the sovereign rights what seems far likelier is that Iraq the general public, and benefici- of the peaceful Mozambiques of has poisoned the logic of human- aries. And the best way to gain this world really so threatened that itarian intervention for years to the trust of host countries, he we should mount a campaign of come. Anti-interventionists like notes, is to show respect for their deference that will serve as protec- Foley may take comfort in that sovereignty and their domestic tive cover for the likes of Sudan, thought; others, however, will capacity. Foley would not have us Zimbabwe, or Burma? rightly view it as a tragedy.

82 Foreign Policy An Arab Study of Jews By Robert Silverman

Al-Mukawwin al-Yahudi fi the opinions and interests of local and understanding. The Jewish al-Hadharah al-Gharbiyyah readers. Among my recent discov- Component in Western Civiliza- (The Jewish Component in eries on the region’s bookshelves is tion, by the pro-Western literary Western Civilization) the existence of Judaica sections, columnist and university professor By Saad Al-Bazei just like in the United States or Saad al-Bazei, was easy to find. 423 pages, Beirut: The Arab Europe, but with one major, dis- During my stay in Riyadh, the Cultural Center, 2007 (in Arabic) tinguishing difference. As one international Arabic daily al-Hayat might expect, store shelves in Mus- reviewed it on page one, announc- henever I visit the lim countries are heavy with trans- ing a new book on the positive cul- Middle East, curiosity lations of well-known anti-Semitic tural contributions of “enlight- leads me into bookstores tracts, like the notorious screed ened” Jews. I suspected that it was Wso I might gain some insight into “Protocols of the Elders of Zion.” a slow news day in the Arab world Imagine my pleasant surprise and that this publicity was intend- Robert Silverman is a career officer in then, during a recent stay in ed to boost the reputation of Bazei the U.S. Foreign Service. The views Riyadh, to discover a book by a (who writes a regular column for a expressed in this review are his, and not prominent Saudi writer that aims sister publication of al-Hayat). necessarily those of the U.S. State Depart- to inform Arab readers about Jew- Surely a book of this sort would ment or the U.S. government. ish culture and promote tolerance not pass Saudi censorship, much

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WWEBEB less be distributed in Riyadh. I was and New Testaments, but it wrong. There it was, at my local excludes the Jewish version of only SSHOWCASEHOWCASE Riyadh bookshop, next to the Ara- the earlier texts. Muslims view bic translation of Bob Woodward’s their holy book as distinct from latest chronicle of the war in Iraq. both the Christian Gospels and The Jewish Component in the Jewish Torah, he notes, allow- Western Civilization is a serious ing, in theory, the independence work of research, analyzing major of each revelation from those of Jewish writers from the 17th cen- the other two. In general, his tury to the present, from Baruch assessment of a unique and impor- Spinoza and Moses Mendelssohn tant Jewish contribution to West- to Jacques Derrida and Harold ern culture would strike most Bloom. The basic thesis is that Westerners as unremarkable. UniversityofKent there is a distinctive Jewish voice in But this book is remarkable, at Brussels each of the figures, including both for several reasons. Here is a work secularized Jews and converts such in Arabic, by a Saudi author, suf- Graduate programs in International as Heinrich Heine and Benjamin fused with understanding for the Relations, International Law, Disraeli, reflecting their struggles Jews and their predicament as a Conflict Analysis, Political Economy, for identity in a Christian-domi- minority in Christian Europe. Migration Studies, Political Strategy, nated culture. Al-Bazei offers sev- Does this commentary on the and more in Brussels. eral insights from a non-Western Holocaust, for instance, sound perspective. For instance, the com- like words you’d expect from a http://www.kent.ac.uk/brussels monly accepted definition of Saudi intellectual? “The 1930s [email protected] “Bible”intheWestisthe brought a terrifying end to the Christian version of both the Old Jews’ dream of Jewish-Christian coexistence in Europe, and Nazism wasn’t alone in fashioning it. There was also Stalinism and ?KHQI>E= fascism, and a collective silence -FBSO NPSF BU XXXDVQDPMVNCJBFEV about what was happening. But #FZPOE UIF 'JOBM 4DPSF Nazism was in the vanguard of committing the genocide called 5IF 1PMJUJDT PG 4QPSU JO "TJB ‘theHolocaust’or‘al-Shoah.’... 7JDUPS %$IB After the Holocaust, the Jew was %JE UIF #FJKJOH 0MZNQJDT DIBOHF forced to return to being Jewish, $IJOB GPS UIF CFUUFS PS GPS UIF XPSTF even if he could not return com- ®"O FTTFOUJBM HVJEF UP IPX BOE XIZ XIBU USBOTQJSFT PO UIF QMBZJOH ºFMET PG UIF pletely.” In most places, this "TJBO1BDJºD SFHJPO NBUUFST UP VT BMM¯ acknowledgment of the existence ,VSU . $BNQCFMM $FOUFS GPS B of the Holocaust would be indis- /FX "NFSJDBO 4FDVSJUZ putable. But, then, Bazei’s book $0/5&.103"3: "4*" */ 5)& 803-% %&$&.#&3 appeared shortly after nearby Iran hosted an official conference %VCBJ 3VTTJB BOE UIF #BMLBOT whose premise was denying the Holocaust. 5IF 7VMOFSBCJMJUZ PG 4VDDFTT 'PSFJHO 1PMJDZ GSPN :FMUTJO UP 1VUJO The book addresses the need $ISJTUPQIFS %BWJETPO +BNFT )FBEMFZ for more balance toward Jews in ®%BWJETPO USBDFT %VCBJ±T SJTF GSPN "O BOBMZTJT PG UIF USBKFDUPSZ PG the Arab media and on the shelves TMFFQZ (VMG QPSU UP QMBZFS PO UIF XPSME 3VTTJB±T GPSFJHO QPMJDZ GSPN of Arab bookstores. Bazei sums TDFOF¯$ISJTUPQIFS )BXUIPSOF UIF EFBUI PG DPNNVOJTU :VHPTMBWJB -PT "OHFMFT 5JNFT UP UIF DPO»JDUT JO #PTOJB $SPBUJB up the need for balance as follows: $0-6.#*")6345 ,PTPWP BOE .BDFEPOJB “If the process of analyzing and $0-6.#*")6345 evaluating Jewish contributions requires us to make judgments, A STORY OF TRUE JIHAD then these judgments should not First, there is more than one always be against the Jews. Some- truth in the Middle East. Public times we should be pro-Jewish. It discourse in Saudi Arabia offers a is not possible, for example, to surprising diversity, while the evaluate the works of a thinker American narrative about the like Sigmund Freud or a poet like country tends toward a stereo- Heine without an amount of sym- type: that Saudi politics and soci- pathy, understanding, and, indeed, ety are governed by extreme Mus- admiration.” lim fundamentalists in league Bazei underscores in his intro- with the Saudi royal family. The duction that respect for Jewish stereotype has some truth. But it contributions to culture shouldn’t is a monochromatic view that be confused with support for misses the interesting color. For Israel or its policies. It’s a neces- example, this stereotype often sary caveat for his readers. He is glosses over the growing influ- attempting something they haven’t ence of Saudi Arabia’s Western- President Lincoln, Queen Victoria, Pope Pius encountered before in Arabic: an educated elite. IX, Sir Richard Burton, French prisoners sang objective study of his praises. A town in Iowa was named in his honor… the Jews. In today’s Middle It began with the bungled occupation of Al- giers in 1830 by a French army of 30,000… East, everything is Here is a workin Arabic,byaSaudi DQG WKH $UDE UHVLVWDQFH OHG E\ D WZHQW\ÀYH mobilized in sup- year old Koranic scholar. port of one side of author,suffused with understanding for “…one of those dazzling biographies that in- the Arab-Israeli form our modern life.” — Susan Eisenhower conflict, even the Jews andtheir predicament as a Bazei’s field of lit- ´7RGD\ PRUH WKDQ HYHU 0XVOLPV DQG QRQ 0XVOLPV DOLNH QHHG WR EH UHPLQGHG RI WKH erary criticism (for minority inChristian Europe. courage, compassion and intellect of Emir which we have Abd el-Kader…. Abd el-Kader’s jihad pro- Edward Said to YLGHV 0XVOLPV ZLWK D PXFK QHHGHG DQWLGRWH to the toxic false jihads of today, dominated thank). To his credit, Bazei doesn’t Second, al-Bazei himself rep- E\ DQJHU YLROHQFH DQG SROLWLFVµ gloss over Zionism but briefly resents this influence. A 55-year- — His Royal Highness, Prince Hassan bin mentions it as an important polit- old graduate of Purdue Universi- Talal of Jordan ical and ideological movement in ty, he belongs to the first wave of “When, in our own day al-Qaeda terrorists modern Jewish thought, placing Saudi men (and a few women) FODLP WKH WLWOH RI ´NQLJKWµ LW·V ZRUWK UHFDOOLQJ it in the context of other 19th- who began traveling to Britain a time when Arab warriors embodied the QREOHVW DWWULEXWHV RI NQLJKWKRRG FRXUDJH century European strains of and the United States for college compassion and restraint. John Kiser brings nationalism. and graduate studies after the both the man and his world brilliantly to life.” 1973 oil boom. These Western- — Steve Simon, research fellow With all this talk of tolerance Council on Foreign Relations and reasonable discussion, one educated graduates now number could easily get the impression that in the tens of thousands and run “Abd el-Kader teaches the French and the ZRUOG WKDW WR DFKLHYH VXFFHVV PRUDO DXWKRULW\ Bazei’s book signifies some kind the government ministries, the is necessary, not simply military might…This of sea change in views toward Jews state oil company, the largest IDVFLQDWLQJ UHYLYDO RI D WK FHQWXU\ ZRUOG among the Arab reading public. banks, the major universities, and KHUR·V VWRU\ KROGV YDOXDEOH OHVVRQV IRU WRGD\·V Here, it’s worth remembering that other institutions. They are the 0LGGOH (DVW ZDUULRU — Col. Jon Smythe 860& UHW few people will read the book most influential pro-American (print runs of Arabic books are bloc in the Arab world, and they “Notable for illustrating that the meeting RI FLYLOL]DWLRQV QHHG QRW DOZD\V SURGXFH D usually limited to several thousand tend to share the political values clash.” — Kirkus Reviews copies), though many more have of openness and tolerance they seen or heard its positive press cov- associate with the United States www.truejihad.com erage. However, the book does dating back to the 1970s and ’80s. $YDLODEOH IURP ÀQH ERRNVHOOHUV HYHU\ZKHUH lead to two important conclusions, At the same time, this generation 0RQNÀVK %RRN 3XEOLVKLQJ &RPSDQ\ and hints at a third. lives in a conservative, patriar- ZZZPRQNÀVKSXEOLVKLQJFRP [ In Other Words ] chal country. Reconciling these conflicting influences is a source of continuing tension in Saudi society, and Bazei’s objective study of Jews places him at the forefront of the liberalizing trend. The book hints at a third conclusion: tacit support for such projects from the Saudi government. The Saudi royal family governs through multiple alliances, among them a conservative clergy and a more liberal professional class, each enjoying royal patronage. In order to be published, this book would have had to pass a government censorship bureau that is controlled by the clergy. In this context, the dedication of Bazei’s book to his deceased parents tells the Saudi reader something more. His mother was from the powerful al-Sudairy clan, and he is related through her to the crown prince and other senior royals (who also own the newspaper that publi- cized his book). In addition, Bazei’s book should be seen in the Saudi context as providing intellectual backing for King Abdullah’s recent initiative to convene an interfaith dialogue that includes Jewish religious leaders. To Westerners working in the Middle East, Bazei’s tolerant and broad-minded views are very much in line with those that we often hear in private conversations with Arabs in the region. But Bazei has been courageous by going public, in print. West- erners should welcome and encourage such efforts, and thereby help make the goal of promoting understanding successful. Otherwise, this important Saudi test balloon could serve as nothing more than a regional curiosity. WhatThey’re Reading Cuba’s New Revolution

As the Castro regime’s grip weakens, could Cuba’s cultural establishment finally have some room to breathe again? FP asked prominent Cuban blogger and cultural critic Yoani Sánchez for her take.

FOREIGN POLICY: Has the political transition between Fidel and Raúl Castro influenced Cuba’s literary scene or political debates?

YoaniSánchez: The greatest influence that this political succession has had was an electronic debate among Cuban intellectuals in January and February 2007. For a couple weeks, numerous writers, poets, and musicians held an exchange of e-mails with criticisms of the cultural policy of the Castros’ revolution. That would not have been possible with Fidel in power just months before.

FP: Who are the most successful authors in Cuba today? Is their writing at all political? FP: How do important aspects enough to eat. The economic discovering another reality of Cuban culture, such as food crisis has made many typical through the pages of a book YS: Leonardo Padura and and sports, influence the liter- Cuban dishes disappear, and is a good inducement. Hence, Pedro Juan Gutiérrez are per- ary culture? the memory of those lost fla- many of us know Paris by haps the most successful vors is a constant in literary heart even though we have writers, both on the foreign YS: The topic of African reli- expression. never set foot in that city. The market as well as within the gions has influenced Cuban same is true of Berlin, Rome, country. Both write critically literature the most in recent FP: With the restrictions on and even Tokyo. Thanks to lit- about our reality, but neither times. It’s hard to find a novel travel, do you notice a greater erature, we manage to travel does political literature per se. that does not deal, even tan- demand for books about other to a bunch of places without Their texts paint a different gentially, with what for some places? the immigration officials being Cuba than official discourse is folklore and for others is able to say a word. would have us believe, and spiritual life. YS: Reading is a form of that is one of the reasons they On the subject of culinary travel. Given the limitations Interview: Alex Ely, a student of are embraced by the Cuban arts, what you see is a con- that we Cubans face in travel- government at the College of

ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP/GETTY IMAGES public. cern with simply getting ing outside our country, William and Mary.

November | December 2008 87 CORNELL PPromotingro omor inti gn UNIVERSITY PRESS UnderstandingUnnU sredn ta dna ingn of RussiaissuRfo a

ApplicationsitacilppA must be received byybdeviecerebtsumsno CDS InternationaltnISDC eetnISDC no later thanahtretalonlanoitanre nnahtretalonlanoitanre Alfa-Bank andCDSand CDS International area pleased totopleasedear announce DecemberbmeceD 1, 20088002,1re . a callforcalla forapplications for theAlfthefor Alfafa Fellowship Program’ssogram’Pr 2009-10Fellows. Now entering itsitsg seventh round, thetheound,rseventh ProgrammargorP information anddnanoitamrofni Alfa Fellowship Program is a professional-levelofpraisogramPr fessional-level exchange applicationitacilppa forms can beebnacsmrofno designed to foster a newnewafostertodesigned generationgenerat ofoftion American leaders downloadedaolnwod from the CDSSDCehtmorfded and decision-makers with mwith meaningful prprofessionalofessional website aetisbew at::ta experience in Russia. www.cdsintl.org/fromusa/alfa.sdcw.ww s ro.ltni g/ .afla/asumorf/g htmmth TheAlfaThe AlfaFellowship beginswithbegins with language training in thetheintraining U.S. followed byanby anintensive e language course inincourse Moscow. In October, Alfa FellowsFellowsAlfa,OctoberIn.Moscow will attend a two-weektwo-weekaattendwills For moreromroF e information contact::tcatnocnoitamrofnie seminar program with key Russkeywithogramprseminar Russiansian government, public, and privateprivateand sector officials totoficialsofsector discuss currententcurr issues CDS International,etnISDC Inc..cnI,lanoitanre facing Russia. Fellows then uthen undertaketakeunder individualized Alfa FellowshipolleFaflA ProgrammargorPpihswo professionalprofessional assignments aat leading Russian 400 ParkkrPa004 k AvAvenue SouthhtuoSeunevA organizationsorganizations including private companies,coprivate ompanies, media outlets, NewweN YoYork,rkoY NY 1001661001YN,k think tanks, NGOs, and governmentent institutions. Tel: (212)212(:leT 497-3510153-794)2 0 Fax: (212)212(:xaF 497-35355353-794)2 Eligiblecandidates must have aahavemust graduategraduatea degree andandeedegr E-mail: [email protected]:liam-E gro.ltnisdc@afla professionalprofessional experience in business, economics, http://www.cdsintl.orgw//:ptth gro.ltnisdc.ww journalism, law,,law government, or publicr public policy. Russian.policy Russian language proficiencyoficiencypr is preferred.efepris TheTheed.err Fellowship includes monthly stipends, relatedelaterstipends, traveltraveled costs, housing, EURASIA’S NEW FRONTIERS and insurance. Young States, Old Societies, Open Futures THOMAS W. SIMONS JR.

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2009 Summer Seminar in World Religions • Religion and U.S. Foreign Policy

The Institute on Culture, Religion & World Affairs (CURA) conducts aged to apply are members of the media, staff at non-governmental an annual summer program, organized and directed by Professor agencies, clergy, government agencies and departments, public Peter L. Berger and co-sponsored with the School of Theology at policy institutes, and academics in higher education, as well as Boston University, under the guidance of Dean John Berthrong and advanced graduate students. with the generous support of the Henry Luce Foundation’s Henry R. Luce Initiative on Religion and International Affairs. The program is taught by a combination of faculty from Boston University and other universities around the world, as well as by The program is an intensive, two-week seminar on special topics active and retired members of the government and public policy in religion and world affairs. This year’s topic is “Religion and U.S. communities. Details on the 2009 summer program are posted on Foreign Policy,” and will run from June 14 to 26, 2009. It is designed the CURA website, www.bu.edu/cura. for professional residents of the United States and international scholars whose work engages them with religion in its political, CURA will provide housing and meals for all participants. Travel economic, and cultural manifestations. Those particularly encour- fellowships will be available on a competitive basis.

To apply, send a one-page cover letter of interest, along with a brief CV, to: Dean John Berthrong Boston University School of Theology 745 Commonwealth Avenue, Room 110, Boston, MA 02215 Phone: 617-353-3050 Fax: 617-353-3061 E-mail: [email protected] With a copy to Ms. Carinne Clendaniel (same address/phone as above) [email protected]

Application Deadline: March 31, 2009 An equal opportunity, affirmative action institution. NET[ HOW TECHNOLOGYEFFECT SHAPES THE WORLD ]

Earlier this year, Raj Kumar, five years of experience? Devex gives Development 2.0 president and cofounder of the Wash- you a choice of 28. ington-based Development Executive At the heart of the site, though, is its hey’ve been called the “develop- Group, launched a social networking massive projects database, which cur- ment mafia”—shadowy experts in tool designed to connect development rently lists more than 47,000 projects on Tobscure disciplines such as drip irrigation professionals and the firms that require everything from rural sanitation in and capacity building. But until recently, their expertise. The site, devex.com, Bangladesh to policing in the Palestinian the tens of thousands of freelance con- was inspired by Web 2.0 companies territories—searchable by region, coun- sultants, ngo workers, and aid agency such as Facebook and LinkedIn. But try, donor, project type, or status. By employees who make up the interna- whereas Facebook junkies list their aggregating this information in one tional development world were more of favorite bands and upload photographs place, Kumar says, Devex gives every- a scattered horde than a cohesive com- of friends, Devex’s nearly 90,000 glob- one a chance to find out about oppor- munity. That might be about to change. al users boast about their project man- tunities, not just the well-connected agement skills and their (though executive members do get latest professional cer- “early intelligence” reports about tifications. upcoming projects). Site members can, Kumar’sgoalistomakeaprofit, dependingontheir but he also hopes the site will help more level of access, post foreign aid reach those in need. “Effi- projects, form net- ciency isn’t sexy,” he admits. “But with works based on com- $200 billion in foreign aid each year, a mon interests, browse few percentage points of efficiency gains and monitor upcoming is like adding another Gates Foundation bids, find job opportu- to the world.” ActionAid International, nities, and get in touch an antipoverty group, estimates that in with experts on the 2004 alone, nearly $12 billion was spent ground. Looking for an on “over-priced and ineffective technical English-speaking agri- assistance.” For the world’s poorest, the cultural specialist in social networking revolution couldn’t Endangeredspecies: High-priced foreignexperts are in big trouble. Colombia with at least come soon enough. —Blake Hounshell

Rebels with a Server Caught in the Net: ontacting elusive rebel factions was once something for reporters to boast about at the hotel bar. Not anymore. The European Union RebelC press offices have gone digital—building Web sites, e-mail lists, and even online chat rooms. Want to know what Darfur After Ireland shocked Europe by voting “no” to the Lisbon Treaty ref- rebels are thinking? Check the latest communiqués on the erendum in June, an offended and befuddled European Commission Justice and Equality Movement’s home page. The photo gallery wondered, “Why do they hate us?” According to an EU investigation of Chad’s Union of Forces for Change and Democracy depicts leaked to London’s Telegraph newspaper, bloggers are partly to sunglasses-clad rebel leaders brandishing their AK-47s—but blame. Blogging, the report claims, is an “anti-establishment” please respect the copyright notice at the bottom of the page. activity. The EU investigation tracked sites between March and May Today’s rebel groups use the Internet to broadcast their of this year, carefully documenting the uptick in anti-EU grievances the world over, and sometimes even move markets. messages. “A number of viral emails, videos, songs etc. were The Nigerian Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger created by the No campaign which were creative, Delta (mend), for instance, adroitly manipulates oil prices often humorous, and had a lot through colorful e-mail blasts. Many of these illicit press of ‘cut through’.” Alas, says offices far outpace their government rivals. mend responds the report, the pro-Brussels within hours to e-mailed queries. But the commission charged campaign was over- with developing the whelmed by the Internet, a For More Online Niger region? Good “fragmented battle Explore the Web sites of rebel groups at: luck finding contact ground dominated by info on its Web site. Euro-scepticism.” ForeignPolicy.com/extras/rebels.

[ ] —Elizabeth Dickinson TOP: RUPAK DE CHOWDHURI/REUTERS; BOTTOM: ISTOCKPHOTO.COM

90 Foreign Policy ExpertSitings

Chris Anderson is the editor in chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More. He blogs at thelongtail.com.

paul.kedrosky.com An investor, columnist, and entrepreneur who is plugged into the California start-up scene, Kedrosky’s Infectious Greed blog is my expert guide to the financial crisis. Unlike many finance writers, Kedrosky avoids confusing jargon and keeps the tone light—even as the news gets increasingly heavy.

sethgodin.typepad.com Text for the Cure Complete with a shaved head, Seth Godin is the guru of modern marketing. With his Delphic insights on advertising, erhaps the hardest part of fighting contagious dis- business, and human psychology, this prolific blogger and eases is simply getting patients to take their meds. author is my daily dose of deep thought. ForP tuberculosis, which kills nearly 1.6 million people a year, the drug regimen lasts at least six months and often carries unpleasant side effects. Patients who skip doses techdirt.com risk developing drug-resistant tb, which is costly to treat Techdirt is not your ordinary news Web site. It’s more like a and prone to dangerous outbreaks. A team of students at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (mit), howev- swarm of smart problem-solvers who analyze “cases” on er, has devised a novel solution: bribe patients with cell- demand—everything from how to find cheap gas on your phone minutes. cellphone to how to make Twitter useful. It’s also a great blog The students’ big idea, which has been put to the test if you’re interested in online privacy, digital rights manage- in Nicaragua, rests on a new technology called paper ment, and doing business in the information age. microfluidics. Rather than visiting a clinic every day or receiving constant reminders at home, patients are given a device that spits out a small strip of paper, coated with blog.wired.com/defense chemicals, every 24 hours. As with a home pregnancy test, Deep defense knowledge, a fiercely independent (but fair patients urinate on the strip, which detects drug compliance. and nonpartisan) voice, and real reporting: That’s Danger Instead of a plus or minus sign, the system reveals a numer- ical code that the patients then send via text message to a Room, the Wired.com military technology blog. Led by Noah central server. (To ward off potential cheaters, there is a new Shachtman, one of the best defense writers working today, code every day.) Those whose codes register a high enough this would be at the top of my reading list even if it weren’t compliance rate each month earn free cellphone minutes, from my sister company. a powerful incentive that’s inexpensive to implement. For Jose Gomez-Marquez, program director of mit’s Innovations in International Health initiative, the project’s have people living with tuberculosis happy to have their genius is its combination of psychology and economics. own mobility and independence.” “We knew that it couldn’t just be a technological approach Next up for the mit team is attempting to export the ; RIGHT: PHOTO COURTESY OF CHRIS ANDERSON

FP to the problem,” he says. “It had to be a combination of program elsewhere. They are already laying the ground- behavior modification with the aid of technology.” So work for bringing the technology to Ethiopia and have far, trial runs of the project in Nicaragua have been a launched a clinical trial in Pakistan. Urdu’s complex hit—so much so that tb patients outside the study are ask- alphabet is proving to be a logistical challenge, but free ing to take part, too. cellphone minutes? It’s an idea that needs little translation. Until the special strips of paper can be mass-produced, —Patrick Fitzgerald the scope of the project remains limited. But Miguel Orozco, a Nicaraguan health researcher who is assisting Blake Hounshell is Web editor of ForeignPolicy.com. the program, envisions the venture catching on. “They can Elizabeth Dickinson is assistant editor at Foreign Policy.

LEFT: ILLUSTRATION BY KEN ORVIDAS FOR do [the treatment] from their homes,” Orozco says. “You Patrick Fitzgerald is a freelance journalist in California.

November | December 2008 91 Answersto the FP Quiz academia’s globalized marketplace, developing countries may need to be even (From page 30) more generous to avoid brain drain to richer countries. 1) B,16percent. In the 2007–08 basketball season, about 1 in 6 NBA players 5) B,Poland. When Georgia withdrew nearly 2,000 troops from Iraq in August, was born outside the United States, up from 7 percent just 10 years ago. But Poland’s 800 troops became the third-largest contingent there, operating in a borderless world of sport, that figure is hardly the highest. In Major alongside about 140,000 U.S. soldiers and 4,000 British troops. South Korea is League Baseball, nearly 30 percent of players were born outside the United No. 4 with approximately 500 soldiers stationed in theater. Meanwhile, Iraq States in recent seasons. Meanwhile, in English football’s Premier League, has 200,000 of its own troops and 300,000 provincial police officers. more than 50 percent of players were born outside Britain. 6) A, 0. Since its establishment 10 years ago, the International Criminal 2) A, Canada. Facebook is one of the world’s fastest-growing social networking Court has issued 12 arrest warrants for people accused of genocide, war sites, with more than 100 million members worldwide. It is perhaps most popu- crimes, and crimes against humanity. But as of September 2008, no one lar in Canada, where 29 percent of the population maintains a member profile, has ever been put on trial. Thomas Lubanga, a Congolese warlord, was to according to a September tally. The United States is No. 13 in the ranking, with have gone on trial June 23 for recruiting child soldiers. But on June 13, the 10.5 percent, but more Americans are on the network than any other nationality— court decided to halt proceedings, ruling that the prosecution had failed to 32 million, nearly equal to Canada’s entire population. disclose exculpatory evidence.

3) A, China. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, China had more 7) C,Japan. As of July 2008, foreign countries owned $2.68 trillion in U.S. journalists in jail in 2007 than any other country—its ninth consecutive year federal debt, just over a quarter of the U.S. government’s $9.5 trillion in total atop the list, with 29 reporters and editors behind bars. Last year, 18 of those arrears. Japan holds the most, with $593 billion in U.S. Treasury securities— jailed in China were online journalists, with one arrest made possible through essentially IOUs from the U.S. federal government. China is next in line, with information provided by Yahoo!. Of the 23 other countries with jailed journalists, $519 billion in securities. U.S. debt has boomed since September 2000, Cuba came in second, with 24 imprisoned reporters, and Eritrea placed third, increasing 73 percent—more than $4 trillion—and the amount of that debt with 14 jailed members of the media. held by foreign governments has nearly tripled.

4) B,India. It pays to be a professor in India. An Indian academic can expect 8) A, Avenue Princesse Grace,Monaco. On the palm-lined street named after to make nearly 9 times the country’s per capita GDP,according to a recent Grace Kelly, apartments can sell for nearly $18,000 per square foot, according Boston College study of academic salaries in 16 countries and territories. By to a recent survey by Wealth Bulletin. Runner-up Severn Road in Hong Kong comparison, faculty salaries in countries such as Germany, Japan, and the comes in comparatively cheap at $11,200 per square foot, while New York’s United States are just 1.5 to 2 times the national average. Nevertheless, given third-ranked Fifth Avenue is a downright bargain at $7,500 per square foot.

92 Foreign Policy ArabReformBULLETIN

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The Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies The Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies Teachers’ Workshop June 7-12, 2009, in Basin Harbor, Vermont

The Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies promotes excellence in the teaching of strategic studies at the undergraduate, graduate, and professional levels. This workshop is designed to help prepare faculty who are new to the national security or strategic studies field. (All expenses are paid by the Merrill Center.)

Topics will include: Teaching an introductory course in strategic studies; syllabus construction; case teaching; use of film in the classroom; gaming and simulations; and staff rides.

Past presenters have included: Eliot Cohen, Thomas Keaney, and Mary Habeck (SAIS); Peter Feaver (Duke University); Brian Linn (Texas A&M University); and Stephen Rosen (Harvard University).

Eligibility: All faculty or prospective faculty members interested in teaching courses in the national security field are eligible to apply.

Application procedure: Submit cover letter, curriculum vitae, and a description of current and prospective teaching interests to the Merrill Center Administrator, Christine Kunkel, at [email protected] or mail to 1619 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036. Applications must be postmarked by January 15, 2009.

For more information: Visit the Merrill Center at www.saismerrillcenter.org or call 202-663-5772. [ Missing Links ]

Continued from page 96 reckless, ideas are sought and celebrated. This Another lesson of 9/11 is that the United approach not only brought us the war in Iraq States will need all the help it can get from other but also the Guantánamo Bay prison, the ero- countries to manage the crisis. Although both sion of civil liberties, disdain for the Geneva 9/11 and the crash of the subprime mortgage Conventions, and the belittling of mechanisms market took place on American soil, their inter- normally used to control government spending national ramifications are enormous. And though as unacceptable bureaucratic nuisances. And American taxpayers will bear the burden of both now, the financial bailout will bring us the the bailout and its fallout, the assistance of reg- largest government-owned financial enterprise ulatory authorities from Britain to China will on the planet, drastic changes in financial reg- be indispensable. In fact, a lesson from 9/11 is ulations, and a banking system that will bear that coordination at technical levels may be more little resemblance to what it was just a few important than the rhetorical statements of heads months ago. of state. After 9/11, while the U.S. Congress was The search for a new paradigm to replace replacing its cafeteria French fries with “free- pre-crash beliefs and institutions is leading many A bureaucratic monster driven by the same panicked impulses that followed 9/11 may result from this crisis. dom fries” and bashing France for its opposition to conclude that American-style capitalism is to the war in Iraq, the intelligence agencies of the now dead. “The idea of an all-powerful market two countries were collaborating closely and without any rules and any political intervention effectively. The same was true of other intelligence is mad,” said French President Nicolas Sarkozy, services in countries whose leaders were making adding that “Self-regulation is finished. Laissez fiery speeches denouncing U.S. unilateralism. faire is finished.” Henry Paulson, the U.S. Treas- Technical collaboration of government bureau- ury Secretary, agreed: “Raw capitalism is a dead crats—sustained over long periods and outside end.” Certainly, the crash revealed the need for the media glare—will be as important to navi- more effective financial oversight and regula- gating this financial crisis successfully as presi- tions. But their adoption will not mark the end dential summits. The way that central bank of capitalism. Millions of Chinese, Indians, managers in Beijing and Moscow coordinate Brazilians, and others will continue to be more actions with their counterparts in Washington active participants in the global economy than and Frankfurt will be an important determinant ever before. And companies from Seattle to of how we get out of this crisis. Taipei to Lyon will continue to innovate and One further parallel between 9/11 and the invest, buy and sell. financial crisis is that public funds that had Inevitably, the financial crisis will be seen not been available for other important needs as yet another sign that America in decline: “The (healthcare, education, poverty) suddenly mate- U.S. will lose its status as the superpower of the rialize. The gravity of the threat and the need world financial system. . . . The world will never to act quickly and decisively triggers a mind-set be the same again,” the German finance minis- where it becomes acceptable—even desirable— ter told his parliament in late September. Almost to make decisions in which money is no object. the exact same words were uttered after 9/11. This disregard for budget constraints is a But though the world certainly changed, it did manifestation of another 9/11 lesson: the infat- so in far fewer ways than the commentators uation with “a new paradigm” and the disdain had predicted. Yes, this financial crisis will deeply for old ideas and institutions. The conviction transform the global economy and will have that a new reality has made previously cher- deeper and longer-lasting consequences than ished principles and ideas obsolete is dangerous. 9/11. But it neither marks the end of capitalism It leads to the assumption that all bets are off, nor the beginning of America’s demise. old ideas are out, and completely new and untested concepts are indispensable. Bold, even Moisés Naím is editor in chief of Foreign Policy.

November | December 2008 95 [ MISSING LINKS ] After the Fall

What the lessons of 9/11 could teach the world about the financial crisis.

By Moisés Naím T he global financial meltdown is as surprising and unprecedented as the 9/11 attacks. Beyond that, the two calamities are very different; the financial crash will undoubtedly have broader consequences, hurting more people in more countries. Yet, 9/11 and its aftermath continue to offer a case study in some pitfalls to avoid when catastrophe hits.

Perhaps the most important lesson from 9/11 is Moreover, as in Iraq, where the thorniest prob- that the U.S. reaction to the attacks had more lems surfaced after a successful military takeover, profound consequences than the attacks them- post-bailout management will be critical. Iraq’s selves. Shocks such as 9/11 are bound to nightmare was amplified by mistakes made in the spark—indeed require—substantial govern- strategy, staffing, execution, and control of the mental reactions, but the consequences of those post-invasion efforts. Similarly, the financial res- reactions linger well beyond the initial event. cue could be fatally undermined by mistakes in This lesson will apply to the current crash: The the disbursement of funds or even in the staffing laws, institutions, constraints, and incentives of the agencies in charge of implementing the engendered by the bailout will mold our lives long bailout. One of the legacies of 9/11, for example, after the effects of the subprime mortgage crisis is the Department of Homeland Security, a have dissipated. The danger is that dispropor- bureaucratic behemoth that has become a text- tionate or ill-conceived governmental responses book example of a failed reorganization doomed may only exacerbate problems. by vague congressional directives adopted in Consider the unintended fallout from the haste. A similar bureaucratic monster, driven by invasion of Iraq: an emboldened Iran, the Tal- the same panicked impulses, may emerge as a iban’s resurgence, and the diminished ability of result of this financial crisis. the United States to lead in times of global crisis. Continued on page 95

FOREIGN POLICY (ISSN 0015-7228), November/December 2008, issue number 169. Published bimonthly in January, March, May, July, September, and November by Washingtonpost.Newsweek Interactive, LLC, a subsidiary of The Washington Post Company, at 1779 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20036-2109. Subscriptions: U.S., $24.95 per year; Canada, $36.95; other countries, $42.95. Periodicals postage paid in Washington, D.C., and at additional mailing offices. Postmaster: Send U.S. address changes to FOREIGN POLICY, P.O. Box 474, Mt. Morris, IL 61054-8499. Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to: P.O. Box 503, RPO West Beaver Creek, Richmond Hill, ON L4B 4R6. Printed in the USA.

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