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Peace Process Observatory Nº 02 February 2016

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Peace Process Observatory Nº 02 February 2016 Peace process observatory Nº 02 February 2016 DETERIORO SERBIA – KOSOVO: An attempt at dialogue between the Kosovo government and opposition fails amidst a serious crisis over the agreements with Serbia on autonomy for Serbian municipalities Kosovo President Atifete Jahjaga failed to bring together the government of Kosovo and the political opposition in order to tackle the serious political crisis in the country stemming from the 2015 agreements with Serbia regarding the establishment of an association of Serb-majority municipalities in Kosovo. The political opposition mostly boycotted the meeting on 9 February, except for the leader of the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, Ramush Haradinaj. His participation in the meeting was harshly criticised by the opposition parties Vetevendosje and Nisma. Even so, afterwards Haradinaj ruled out the possibility of further negotiations when his demand for early elections was rejected. Days later, the president announced her plans to hold individual meetings to make headway towards solving the crisis, while the opposition rejected the dialogue. The political crisis around the dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo also continued in Parliament. Violent incidents occurred again in the first session of Parliament in 2016, with new launches of tear gas by opposition MPs. The police later arrested several MPs, worsening the political situation even more. Opposition to the agreements continued to take shape in the streets as well, with a demonstration involving tens of thousands of people in the capital, Pristina, on Kosovo’s Independence Day on 18 February. The peaceful march called once again for the rejection of the agreement and the departure of the government. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expressed concern about the tactics used by the Kosovar opposition, warning of their impact on delaying the agreements. (Balkan Insight, UN, B92, 1-29/02/16) SYRIA: The UN announces suspension of the talks three days after they start and states that reviving them depends on the cessation of hostilities Just three days after the beginning of a new round of indirect talks among the parties to the conflict in Geneva, in early February the special envoy of the UN and the Arab League for Syria announced the temporary suspension of the meetings, initially for a period of three weeks, due to the disagreements among the delegations about the priority of humanitarian issues. The Syrian government wanted to define some procedural subjects before addressing humanitarian ones, while the opposition delegation demanded immediate guarantees for the delivery of aid and an end to indiscriminate attacks. Meanwhile, the negotiations were affected by disagreements about the composition of the delegations and the agenda of the talks. Before the new collapse of the meetings, Staffan de Mistura managed to meet separately with the delegation of Bashar Assad’s regime and with representatives of the High Negotiations Committee (HNC). After announcing the suspension of the meetings in Geneva, De Mistura underscored the need for the talks to be significant and not merely a dialectical exercise. The possibility of establishing contacts was also affected by the intensifying levels of violence in the country, which did not (partially) fall until the end of the month after a cessation of hostilities agreement was adopted. The agreement was adopted by the United States and Russia as co-leaders of the International Syria Support Group’s (ISSG) special body for the ceasefire. The cessation of hostilities, which excludes ISIS and the al-Nusra Front, was ratified through a telephone conversation between the Russian and US presidents. The UN Security Council unanimously approved Resolution 2268 in support of this cessation of hostilities, calling for the application of Resolution 2254 of December 2015, which delineated a plan for the negotiations and the start of a political transition process, and highlighting the need for the truce to provide a more conducive climate for political negotiations. In late February, De Mistura announced that he would try to call new meetings with the parties in Geneva for 7 March. In this context, US Secretary of State John Kerry warned that if the cessation of hostilities is not honoured and a genuine transition process is not implemented in the coming months, he 1 Peace process observatory Nº 02 February 2016 would consider a plan B, which could involve the partition of Syria. (UN News, 03, 26/02/16; The Guardian, 04, 23, 25/02/16) ALERTA INDIA - PAKISTAN: Foreign secretary meeting still pending after the Pathankot bombing Pakistan said that it hoped that a meeting of foreign secretaries would take place as soon as possible after the Indian Government announced that the meeting would not depend on developments in the investigation into the attack on the Indian military base at Pathankot. The meeting between the foreign secretaries of the two countries was initially scheduled for January, but it was cancelled after the Pathankot bombing. India accused the armed opposition group Jaish-e-Muhammad, based in Pakistan, of being responsible for the attack. The meetings between foreign secretaries are crucial in the implementation of the Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue process that both parties agreed to last December. The foreign secretaries are responsible for developing a road map for issues such as peace and security, Kashmir, Siachen, Sir Creek, trade, tourism, water and direct personal contact between the populations. (The Express Tribune, 19/2/16; Hindustan Times, 15/2/16) ISRAEL-PALESTINE: The Quartet on the Middle East reiterates concern about the feasibility of the two-state solution After a meeting in Munich, Germany, representatives of the Quartet on the Middle East expressed concern about the recent dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and warned of the feasibility of the two-state solution, stressing that the status quo is not sustainable. The meeting was attended by the head of the EU’s foreign policy, Federica Mogherini, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, US Secretary of State John Kerry and UN Deputy Secretary-General Jan Eliasson. The Quartet underscored that unilateral actions cannot jeopardise the possibilities of a negotiated solution and announced the preparation of a report on the situation on the ground that will result in recommendations to advance a two- state solution. Meanwhile, France continued to promote a new initiative to revive the Israeli- Palestinian peace talks. In February, Paris formally submitted the proposal led by French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, which consists of a three-stage process: consultations with both parties, the creation of an international support group and the promotion of an international conference to relaunch the dialogue. However, analysts warned that the initiative faces difficulties to be successful, including the Israeli government’s lack of interest and the improbability of the United States committing to actively support this effort in a pre-electoral atmosphere. In this context, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the preparation of a multi-year plan to surround Israel with separation barriers that he claimed would block the passage of Palestinians and Arabs from other countries in the region. (Al Jazeera, 21/02/16; The Guardian, 10/02/16; UN News, 12/02/16) PHILIPPINES (MINDANAO-MILF): The MILF warns of the dangers of radicalisation in Mindanao after Congress fails to pass the law that is supposed to create the new Bangsamoro autonomous region The ordinary session of Congress ended without the adoption of the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL), the law that should incorporate the main contents of the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro (2012) and the Comprehensive Agreement on Bangsamoro (2014) signed with the MILF after several years of negotiations. The BBL is supposed to lead to the replacement of the current Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) by a new autonomous region called Bangsamoro, which would have a greater territorial scope and level of self-government. Given the suspension of the legislative sessions, the BBL cannot be passed before the presidential election in May, so its implementation will not be able to begin while President Benigno Aquino is in office, as planned by both the MILF and the 2 Peace process observatory Nº 02 February 2016 Philippine government. After the round of negotiations held by both sides in Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia), both the MILF and the government criticised the passivity and indifference with which both chambers had dealt with the congressional processing of the law. On several occasions, discussions and hearings on the BBL had to be postponed due to a lack of a quorum. Moreover, both chambers approved alternative drafts of the law to the version created by the Bangsamoro Transition Commission, which was revised and amended by the government before being sent to Congress. Both the MILF and the government opposed the approval of these alternative drafts, as they did not reflect the letter or the spirit of the agreements that the government and the MILF had reached. Some in the MILF even declared that it would be better not to pass the BBL than to pass a law that reduced and undermined the commitment contained in those agreements. After many delays regarding the deadline for adopting the BBL, last January the speakers of the House of Representatives and the Senate acknowledged that it was not going to be passed in the current legislature. Thus, in February the MILF warned once again of the frustration that this could cause among the Moro population and the combatants of the MILF. The leader of the MILF said that the deadlock in the peace process could lead to the radicalisation of certain MILF groups and legitimise those who were suspicious of the government and advocated a military reaction to the current situation. In the same way, the leaders of the MILF warned of the possibility that some of the groups operating in Mindanao that have expressed their opposition to the peace process on several occasions, like Abu Sayyaf, the BIFF, certain MILF factions and groups that claim to be a part of Islamic State, may enlist new members into their ranks.
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