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National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for December 2019

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National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for December 2019 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for December 2019 DECEMBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW TRENDS PHASE PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE Drought Phase: Normal- Stable IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Most biophysical indicators are within the expected seasonal ranges. Biophysical Value for LTA- Normal ranges Above average rainfall was received in the month Indicators the month Monthly Kenya % of December 2019. Baringo Baringo The Vegetation Condition Index values for Average rainfall 108.2 42.1 80-120 Baringo County are above normal and stable. MM (%) The Water levels in most water sources are VCI-3month 86.29 58 35-50 normal at (90%-100%) % Of water in the 90%-100% 50-60 water pan Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: Production indicators Value Normal ranges The forage condition is good in both quality and Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal quantity and expected to remain stable with the Livestock Body Condition 4-5 3-4 on-going rains. Milk Production (Ltr /HH/Month) 1.7 1.8 Livestock body condition is fair to good in all Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death livelihood zones. Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Milk production is slightly above the normal Terms of Trade (ToT) 66 >63 seasonal ranges and on an increasing trend. Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.6 >=1.7 No Drought related Livestock deaths reported in Water for Households-trekking 3.1 0-4 all Livelihood zones. distance (km) Crops area planted for the season (Maize) LTA (40,046Ha) Access indicators (%)(November 2019) 2,500(Beans) LTA (20,028Ha) Terms of trade are currently above normal Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges seasonal ranges due to improving livestock body condition. At Risk (%) 11.3% <15 CSI 15.16 >19.0 Distances to water sources for households currently are below normal seasonal ranges and stable due to recharge of most of surface water sources. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was 11.3%, a decrease as compared 14.6% in the previous month. Copping strategy index for households is still within normal ranges. Short rains . Planting/Weeding . Long rains harvests . Short rains harvests . Long rains . A long dry spell . Planting/weeding . Short dry spell . High Calving Rate . Land preparation . Reduced milk . Milk Yields Increase . Increased HH Food Stocks yields . Kidding (Sept) . Increased HH Food Stocks . Land preparation Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION During the month of December, 85.5 mm,8.9mm and 13.8mm of rainfall was received in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd dekad respectively The amounts received were above the LTA during the first dekad and below the LTA during the second and third dekad for this period. Both temporal and spatial distribution was fair across all the sub-counties. Fig. 1. Rainfall performance 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The vegetation condition in the County was above normal and improved as compared to the previous month as shown in the table below. COUNTY Sub VCI as at 28th November VCI as at 28th December County 2019 2019 County 80.11 86.29 The county vegetation greenness is above normal, with all its sub counties in above Central 85 83.91 normal vegetation greenness. The county Eldama 75.17 75.15 experienced above normal rains during BARINGO Mogotio the month that has impacted positively the 82.57 91.3 vegetation condition for the county. North 77.06 80.15 South 82.35 86.31 Tiaty 79.99 89.9 Table.1. Source BOKU The vegetation condition index for Baringo County was at 86.29 which was normal vegetation greenness as compared to the LTA. In comparison to the previous month the current vegetation cover has improved slightly in quantity and quality. The situation is expected to decline due to the cessation of OND rains Fig 2. VCI The vegetation condition is stable and expected to deteriorate throughout the county due to the end of OND rains. Fig.3.VCI trend 2.1.2 Pasture The pasture condition is good both in quantity and quality across all livelihood Zones these conditions are normal at this time of the year. The current pasture is expected to last for three to four months across all livelihood zones. Fig.4.Pasture Condition 2.1.3 Browse The browse condition is good in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones; the condition is normal as compared to seasonal ranges for this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for four to five months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones and six months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE Fig.5. Browse Condition 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were Rivers, traditional river wells and water pans. Most water pans and dams were at 90% to 100% of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods is good, which is normal for this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for four months in irrigated farming livelihood zone In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones, the water is likely to last for three months. Fig.6 State of water Sources 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was 3.1km, which was stable as compared to the previous month at 4km. The distances are below the LTA by 28 percent. Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least trekking distance of 0.8km while Agro pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of 5.3 km. This decrease in distances is attributed to recharge of water sources across all livelihoods. Fig.7. Water Source Trekking Distances 2.2.3 Livestock access There was a slight decrease in return distance for livestock from grazing zones to water points from 5.8Km the previous month to 5.6Km currently. The Agro pastoral livelihood zone covered the longest average distance of 5.7 km while irrigated livelihood zone covered the shortest average distance of 1.6 km. The situation is attributed to regenerated pastures and water availability at the traditional grazing zones across all livelihood zones. Fig.8. Water Source Grazing Distance 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The proportion of households interviewed during the month that reported good and fair livestock body condition were 81% and 19% respectively. This fair to good body condition is occasioned by availability of enough pasture, browse and water across livelihood zones. The situation is likely to remain steady with the on-going short rains. Fig.9. Livestock body condition 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Cases of CCP and CBP were reported in all livelihoods, which is normal. The livestock department has concluded livestock vaccinations and treatment of these cases. There were no major livestock disease outbreaks in the county during the month. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day was at 1.7 litres a decrease of 10 percent compared to the previous month at 1.9 litres. The decrease was attributed to the displacement of households in irrigated livelihood zone due to floods. The amount is below the long-term average by 10 percent. The milk was mainly from cattle and goats. Irrigated livelihood zone had an Fig.10. Milk Production average of 2 litres while Agro pastoral had the least at 1 litre. 4 RAIN FED CROP PRODUCTION. 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers in the irrigated livelihood zone have planted short term crops such as green grams and cowpeas in the agro pastoral livelihood zone. 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices. The average price for medium-sized cattle was at Ksh.20278 a slight decrease of five percent as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 21,352 The price was above the long-term average by 47 percent. Irrigated livelihood zones posted the highest prices of Ksh. 20,333 while Agro Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.15, 000. The slight decrease in prices was attributed to increased livestock numbers as farmers sell to get cash during the festive season across all livelihood zones. Fig.11. Cattle Prices 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium size goat was relatively stable at Ksh.2, 987 as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 3,044. This goat price was above the LTA by 14 percent. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood Zone at Ksh. 3,367 and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2, 000. The better prices were as a result of good livestock body conditions. Fig.12. Goat Prices 4.2.0. CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize The current average price for kilogram maize was stable as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 46. The price was slightly above the long-term average at this time of the year by four percent. Pastoral livelihood Zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.47 per Kg while irrigated Livelihood Zone recorded the lowest of Ksh.30 per Kg. 5 This can be attributed by the decrease of stocks at household levels and increased stocks at local retailers.
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