The Famine Early Warning National Early Systems Network ZIMBABWE MONTHLY Warning Unit FOOD SECURITY UPDATE

December 14, 2001

Summary

• Zimbabwe’s official maize grain reserve is continuing to decrease and could run out before January. Official maize stocks were estimated at 86,169 MT as of December 7, 2001, down from the previous level of 96,096 MT on November 23, 2001. The ongoing decline is a concern because no substantial imports (either commercial or emergency assistance) are expected in the country before late January 2002. However, the official maize stocks remaining are being distributed throughout the country and all the Grain Marketing Board depots have some stocks of maize. • The AGRITEX fortnightly report for the period ending December 7, 2001 reported a poor to average crop stand due to poor germination for maize in Hurungwe District, groundnuts in , and cotton in Bikita and Mwenezi Districts. • Consumer goods prices have remained stable since the Government instituted price controls in October 2001, but there have been shortages of some basic commodities such as sugar and cooking oil. • There is a general shortage and poor distribution of inputs for the 2001/02 agricultural season. Fertilizer is in short supply in the country, primarily due to low output from industry. Although there is sufficient maize seed in Zimbabwe, poor distribution has left retail outlets in many parts of the country without it. The poor availability of these inputs is expected to adversely affect yields this season as farmers apply inputs below recommended levels given soil fertility and crop requirements.

1. Current Food Security Conditions

1.1. Seasonal Outlook

Widespread and good rainfall has been received throughout the country since the beginning of November. By December 12, most of the country had received more than 80 percent of the long-term mean since the beginning of the rainfall season in October. As of December 12, 2001, areas around and received more than 200 percent of normal rainfall. The largest deficits are still in the districts east of covering Seke, Goromonzi, , Murehwa, Makoni, and Nyanga, and also District in the south (Figure 1). Although these districts have received 80 percent of normal rainfall, this has not affected planting activities.

1.2. Crop Conditions

Plowing and planting of crops continued in all farming sectors, taking advantage of the continued good rainfall received since the beginning of November 2001. Weeding of the early planted crops has started. The AGRITEX fortnightly report for the period ending December 7, 2001 reported poor germination for maize in Hurungwe District, groundnuts in Gutu District, and cotton in Bikita and Mwenezi Districts. Meanwhile, most planted crops are Figure 1. Zimbabwe Seasonal Rainfall Distribution reportedly progressing well.

1.3. Marketing Conditions

1.3.1. Consumer Goods

Prices of consumer goods have remained stable since the Government instituted price controls in October 2001. As a result, the November CCZ basket remained at Z$22,875 from October. However, there is a general shortage of some controlled products, including sugar, cooking oil, and fresh milk. This has affected food security in both urban and rural areas. Source: Zimbabwe Department of Meteorological Services 1.3.2. Agricultural Inputs

There is a general shortage and poor distribution of inputs for the 2001/02 agricultural season. Fertilizer is in short supply in the country, primarily due to low output from industry. Although there is sufficient maize seed in Zimbabwe, poor distribution has left retail outlets in many parts of the country without it.

The shortage could be attributed to the decreased fertilizer and seed prices announced by the Government in November and the production capacity at the factories. Fertilizer prices were pegged at about Z$1,080.65 for Compound D (used at planting) and Ammonium Nitrate at $980.10- $992.40 per 50-kg bag in October, but the same fertilizer is being sold at unofficial outlets at Z$1,700 - $1,800 per 50-kg bag. The shortage would affect yields this season as farmers apply inputs at less than optimum levels.

2. Food Security Prospects for the 2001/02 Consumption Year

2.1. Food Security at the National Level

Zimbabwe’s official maize grain reserve has continued to decrease and was estimated at 86,169 MT as of December 7, 2001, down from the previous level of 96,096 MT on November 23, 2001. Maize stocks have continued to decline and could run out before the end of January as no substantial local intake is expected. Further, 150,000 MT of Government maize imports and 60,000 MT of emergency assistance from the World Food Programme (WFP) are not likely to arrive in the country until late January 2002. Easing pressures somewhat are that the official maize stocks available are well distributed throughout all the Grain Marketing Board depots in the country, although remote areas will still have a problem accessing the grain. Of the 65 depots that store maize, only 6 depots do not have maize. Most of the depots had received some maize, but they either sold out or the maize was moved to the deficit areas.

A total of 300,924 MT of wheat have been sold to the GMB since the start of the marketing year. The available wheat, excluding export commitments, would be adequate to meet consumption requirements of about 378,600 MT per year (also excluding replenishing the Strategic Grain Reserve).

2.2. Food Security Prospects at the Subnational Level

2.2.1. Current Food Access in Rural Areas

Food relief distribution by World Vision, Care International, Christian Care, Catholic Development Committee (CADEC), Save the Children’s Fund UK, ORAP, and Christian Aid has continued to 272,000 people in , Mwenezi, Zaka, Binga, , Chivi, , Mberengwa, Muzarabani, Tsholotsho, Matobo, , and Bulilimamangwe Districts. Most of the NGOs bought adequate stocks from the GMB for the current relief programs for the feeding period, such that the shrinking stocks at the GMB would not affect the relief programs. However, the low levels of stocks in the country will affect food security in the central and southern districts of the country.

2.2.2. Current Food Access for Farm Workers

Food security conditions of the estimated 230,000 permanent farm workers affected by resettlement on 2,494 of the 3,829 Government-listed farms is not known. NGOs are continuing to monitor this group to refine statistics on the number affected and their food needs.

2.2.3. Current Food Access For Urban Areas

The yearly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rate that stood at 97.9 percent in October has eroded the purchasing power of the poor urban consumers. The extent and impact of the loss of purchasing power on these consumers will be evaluated in January 2002 when FEWS NET and CCZ conduct the Harare urban VA update.

3. Food Security Recommendations to Consider Immediately

FEWS NET and NEWU make the following recommendations:

• Planned maize imports and emergency assistance —150,000 MT from the Grain Marketing Board (GMB) and 60,000 MT from the World Food Programme (WFP) — should be brought in to the country before end of January 2002. • The GMB’s distribution network and mechanisms should be used to ensure grain availability for Zimbabweans in remote rural areas and for the urban poor. • The GMB should start packaging and selling maize in 25-kg packs to increase their affordability among poor consumers (larger volumes are more difficult for poorer consumers to afford). • There is need to review the policy to have the GMB be the sole maize trader. The policy has disadvantaged some communal farmers who used to get better producer prices and inputs at the farm gate from private traders such as Farmers’ World. The Z$15,000 per MT pre-planting maize price alone may not be a good enough incentive for farmers to increase production.