Street Capitalist: Event Driven Value Investments
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Gamestop, AMC and the Self-Fulfilling Beliefs of Stock Buyers
Home / Publications / Research / Economic Brief / 2021 Economic Brief April 2021, No. 21-13 GameStop, AMC and the Self-Fullling Beliefs of Stock Buyers Article by: Gaston Chaumont, Grey Gordon and Bruno Sultanum The recent stock market gyrations of GameStop and AMC Entertainment illustrate that companies' fates can sometimes hinge on self-fullling beliefs. Pessimistic expectations can raise the specter of bankruptcy, while optimistic expectations can allow for survival and eventual success. We show how it is sometimes possible for small coalitions of buyers — such as those that formed on the online forum Reddit — to tip the balance in favor of an optimistic scenario. By doing so, a coalition can reap large prots and fundamentally improve a company's prospects. A cash-strapped company's survival can depend on the self-fullling beliefs of investors. It is possible for the company to fall prey to a vicious cycle in which pessimistic expectations bar it from raising additional funds and thereby force it into bankruptcy. Alternatively, the company may benet from a virtuous cycle in which optimistic expectations permit it to raise additional funds and thereby allow it to survive and even prosper. These divergent possibilities were demonstrated by the recent market swings of GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment (AMC). The pessimistic cases for GME and AMC were obvious: Reduced trac at malls and movie theaters, respectively, decimated their revenues, and the persistence of these tough operating conditions could have saddled the companies, which were heavily indebted, with even larger debt burdens, possibly resulting in bankruptcy. Many hedge funds acted on this pessimistic view by "short selling" the companies' stocks.1 But there were also optimistic cases to be made for GME and AMC. -
The P&A Blog
The P&A Blog March 1, 2021 The GameStonk Saga By John D. As the token almost Gen Z-er in the office, I’ve become, for better or worse, the office authority on cryptocurrency news and internet lingo. The recent run-up of GameStop stock, catalyzed from a rag-tag bunch of internet investors, proved to only solidify my place in the office: I used Robinhood as a teen and through college, I’ve been a part of this internet group for some time (not posting, just watching), and I watch the markets all day – all of what I bring to the table has culminated in this blog post! First and foremost, many of the terms I use relate to complicated financial instruments. At the bottom of the article, I have explanations for items I think would be confusing to someone not immersed in the finance world. Second, I need to give an overview of the main players in this drama (again, if you want a deeper explanation for some of these, see the appendix at the bottom of the article): 1) GameStop: They are the largest brick-and-mortar retailer dedicated to video games. In a world of online shopping, empty malls, and streaming, this business looked to be dying for some time. 2) Robinhood: An online brokerage that was the first company to slash commissions to $0 for stock trades. They make money buy selling order flow to other institutions (more on this later). 3) Reddit: The online forum in which the subreddit r/wallstreetbets began touting that people should buy GameStop for various reasons. -
The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine
The Big Short Inside the doomsday machine Also by Michael Lewis Home Game Liar's Poker The Money Culture Pacific Rift Losers The New New Thing Next Moneyball Coach The Blind Side EDITED BY MICHAEL LEWIS Panic The Big Short INSIDE THE DOOMSDAY MACHINE Michael Lewis W. W. NORTON & COMPANY NEW YORK LONDON Copyright (c) 2010 by Michael Lewis All rights reserved For information about permission to reproduce selections from this book, write to Permissions, W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 500 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10110 ISBN: 978-0-393-07819-0 W. W. Norton & Company, Inc. 500 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10110 www.wwnorton.com W. W. Norton & Company Ltd. Castle House, 75/76 Wells Street, London W1T 3QT For Michael Kinsley To whom I still owe an article The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him.--Leo Tolstoy, 1897 Contents Prologue Poltergeist Chapter 1 A Secret Origin Story Chapter 2 In the Land of the Blind Chapter 3 "How Can a Guy Who Can't Speak English Lie?" Chapter 4 How to Harvest a Migrant Worker Chapter 5 Accidental Capitalists Chapter 6 Spider-Man at The Venetian Chapter 7 The Great Treasure Hunt Chapter 8 The Long Quiet Chapter 9 A Death of Interest Chapter 10 Two Men in a Boat Epilogue Everything Is Correlated Acknowledgments PROLOGUE Poltergeist The willingness of a Wall Street investment bank to pay me hundreds of thousands of dollars to dispense investment advice to grown-ups remains a mystery to me to this day. -
Dodona I, LLC, Et Al. V. Goldman, Sachs & Co., Et Al. 10-CV-07497
Case 1:10-cv-07497-VM Document 40 Filed 02/04/11 Page 2 of 86 37KO doGRFO of bespeaks caution provides no protection to someone who warns his hiking companion to walk slowly because there might be a ditch ahead when he knows with near certainty that the 1 *UDdGa&yo& lRQo&OLHVaRay.” q Court appointed lead plaintiff Dodona I, LLC (“Dodona” or “Plaintiff”), on behalf of itself and two proposed classes of similarly situated investors, alleges the following for its amended complaint against the defendants. NATURE OF THE ACTION 1. This is a securities class action on behalf of investors in two offerings of collateralized debt obligations (“CDOs”) led by The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (“Goldman”). The first CDO comprised a $837 million offering of securities co-issued by Hudson Mezzanine Funding 2006-1, Ltd. (“Hudson 1 Ltd.”) and Hudson Mezzanine Funding 2006-1, Corp. (“Hudson 1 Corp.”) as to all tranches except the Class E and Income Note tranches, the latter two of which were issued solely by Hudson 1 Ltd., as well as a senior swap transaction with an initial notional amount of $1.2 billion (the “Hudson 1 CDO”). The Hudson 1 CDO was issued on or about December 5, 2006. The second CDO was a $407.9 million offering of securities co-issued by Hudson Mezzanine Funding 2006-2, Ltd. (“Hudson 2 Ltd.”) and Hudson Mezzanine Funding 2006-2, Corp. (“Hudson 2 Corp.”) as to all tranches except the Class E and Income Note tranches, the latter two of which were issued solely by Hudson 2 Ltd. -
The Penny Stock Rules, Online Microcap Fraud, and the Unwary Investor
"Click Here to Buy the Next Microsoft": The Penny Stock Rules, Online Microcap Fraud, and the Unwary Investor KEVIN C. BARTELS" I. INTRODUCTION Investment fraud is a time-honored tradition. As far back as the 1700s, con artists on London's Exchange Alley were using a "pump and dump" scheme to defraud investors.' The "pump and dump" scheme used by con artists in eighteenth century London was simple but effective: the price of worthless shares of the "South Sea Bubble," a South American trading company, was inflated by false rumors of profitability spread about the company by owners of the shares, who then sold the shares at a substantial profit after the price of the shares increased.2 The "pump and dump?' scheme has since continued through the present day and has enriched a very few unscrupulous sellers at the cost of tens of thousands of investors Recently, though, the age-old schemes used by swindlers to sell phony or vastly inflated shares of stock have moved fully into the digital age: investors are now being duped over the Internet.4 In fact, the number of fraudulent offerings of securities is predicted to grow as the number of investors trading online grows. 5 Historically, the existence of securities fraud in the United States has led to attempts by Congress to stem its growth, but what can or will be done about securities fraud conducted over the new medium of the Internet remains a matter of some speculation. Indeed, much of U.S. securities regulation has focused on the prevention and punishment of fraud, and it was the abuses -
No Thanks for the Memories
February 12, 2016 No thanks for the memories. View as PDF Click here to view as PDF. “It is better to be three hours too early than a minute too late.” -Falstaff, in Shakespeare’s The Merry Widows of Windsor. “Put simply, the Fed has created the third speculative bubble in 15 years in return for real economic improvements that amount to literally a fraction of 1%.” – John Hussman, referring to a recent influential research paper by the University of Chicago’s Cynthia Wu and Fan Dora Xia. SUMMARY – The latest Hollywood blockbuster The Big Short evokes strong memories here at Evergreen of the bubbly days leading up to the subprime housing bust in 2007 and 2008. – Like the film’s protagonists – hedge fund managers Mark Baum and Dr. Michael Burry – we spent several years warning about the risks to the creaky housing market and the overleveraged US financial system. While our caution was a source of frustration for some clients, it ultimately paid off for the patient majority who stuck with us. – While our defensive posture in the face of rising prices was eventually vindicated, that process did not happen overnight. As the movie reminds us, mortgage-backed security (MBS) valuations actually continued to rise even as defaults rose sharply. Being early in recognizing bubbles can be extremely painful for a year or two, but what matters most is being right in the long run. – Once again, we find ourselves in that uncomfortable position at Evergreen. After years of overly accommodative Fed policy, we see bubbles all around us and also signs that many of them are beginning to pop. -
Cybergossip Or Securities Fraud? Some First Amendment Guidance in Drawing the Line
University of Missouri School of Law Scholarship Repository Faculty Publications Faculty Scholarship 2001 Cybergossip or Securities Fraud? Some First Amendment Guidance in Drawing the Line. Lyrissa Lidsky University of Missouri School of Law, [email protected] Michael Pike Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarship.law.missouri.edu/facpubs Part of the Constitutional Law Commons, First Amendment Commons, Internet Law Commons, and the Privacy Law Commons Recommended Citation Lidsky, Lyrissa Barnett, Cybergossip or Securities Fraud? Some First Amendment Guidance in Drawing the Line, 5 No. 5 Wallstreetlawyer.com: Sec. Elect. Age 15. (2001). This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Faculty Scholarship at University of Missouri School of Law Scholarship Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Faculty Publications by an authorized administrator of University of Missouri School of Law Scholarship Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CYBERGOSSIP OR SECURITIES FRAUD? SOME FIRST..., 5 No. 5... 5 No. 5 Wallstreetlawyer.com: Sec. Elec. Age 15 Wallstreetlawyer.com: Securities in the Electronic Age October, 2001 CYBERGOSSIP OR SECURITIES FRAUD? SOME FIRST AMENDMENT GUIDANCE IN DRAWING THE LINE Lyrissa Barnett Lidsky, Michael Pike a1 Copyright (c) 2001 Glasser LegalWorks; Lyrissa Barnett Lidsky, Michael Pike Fifteen-year-old Jonathan Lebed, the youngest person ever pursued by the SEC in an enforcement action, made over $800,000 in six months by promoting stocks on Internet message boards. Using several fictitious screen names, Jonathan posted hundreds of messages on Yahoo! Finance, hyping selected over-the-counter stocks and then promptly selling his pre-purchased shares as soon as the stock prices rose. -
Michael Burry 2000/2001
MSN Money Articles By Michael Burry 2000/2001 Strategy My strategy isn't very complex. I try to buy shares of unpopular companies when they look like road kill, and sell them when they've been polished up a bit. Management of my portfolio as a whole is just as important to me as stock picking, and if I can do both well, I know I'll be successful. Weapon of choice: research My weapon of choice as a stock picker is research; it's critical for me to understand a company's value before laying down a dime. I really had no choice in this matter, for when I first happened upon the writings of Benjamin Graham, I felt as if I was born to play the role of value investor. All my stock picking is 100% based on the concept of a margin of safety, as introduced to the world in the book "Security Analysis," which Graham co-authored with David Dodd. By now I have my own version of their techniques, but the net is that I want to protect my downside to prevent permanent loss of capital. Specific, known catalysts are not necessary. Sheer, outrageous value is enough. I care little about the level of the general market and put few restrictions on potential investments. They can be large-cap stocks, small cap, mid cap, micro cap, tech or non-tech. It doesn't matter. If I can find value in it, it becomes a candidate for the portfolio. It strikes me as ridiculous to put limits on my possibilities. -
Learning from Dr. Michael J. Burry's Investment Philosphy
Learning from Dr. Michael J. Burry’s Investment Philosophy Panda Agriculture & Water Fund Team LEARNING FROM DR. MICHAEL J. BURRY’S INVESTMENT PHILOSPHY A journey through t h e investment stages of the man who bet against arrogance and put the financial industry in check . Introduction We want to contribute by making financial knowledge less cyclical and more anti-fragile5. Financial markets are rife with stories about big companies, banks and investment funds going bust or irredeemably We are also interested in promoting Dr. Burry’s unorthodox going bankrupt, mind-boggling trades and hedge fund value investing approach. When asked about our investment wizards making money from wild ideas. ‘The Big Short’, the approach we usually say that our philosophy is 50% value film adaptation of Michael Lewis’s book, has reverted public and 50% global macro. When it comes to analyzing attention to the subprime crisis and the strong conviction companies, we focus on critical value points, paying special investing strategy. By watching this movie, not only did we, attention to cash flow generation (something Dr. Burry also the Panda Agriculture & Water Fund team1, rediscover the does). As portfolio managers however, we also look at the book, which we had read, it also prompted us to delve global environment and macroeconomic trends. In fact, one further into Dr. Burry’s investment philosophy. This of the reasons for starting Panda was our having identified document humbly seeks to be the most complete agriculture as one of the strongest macroeconomic trends in compilation of Dr. Michael J. Burry thoughts2. the coming decades. -
Securities Regulation the Liability Risks of Ebroker Chat Rooms
SECURITIES REGULATION THE LIABILITY RISKS OF E-BROKER CHAT ROOMS BLAKE A. BELL SIMPSON THACHER & BARTLETT LLP AUGUST 15, 1998 Hot stock tips have been whispered in the ears of prospective investors for as long as stocks have been traded. When such tips are “whispered” inside Internet chat rooms, however, the whisper can become a roar that moves stock prices.1 It was no surprise, then, that securities regulators sat up and took notice last February when E*Trade shocked the brokerage industry with an announcement that it planned to add investor chat rooms to its Web site. E*Trade since has opened its chat room area for use by some customers and reportedly plans to permit non-customer participation by the end of August. Consequently, e-broker chat rooms have come under increasing scrutiny. They even have been the subject of recent testimony before a Congressional subcommittee.2 Such scrutiny is warranted. So-called “financial chat” on the Internet has been a headache for securities regulators since at least 1996.3 There recently have been a number of reported instances where so-called “Cybergossip” has played a role in wide swings in stock prices.4 With E*Trade’s new chat room area, now comes the added risk that investors can conduct securities trades at the very same Web site which, in theory, could offer a vehicle for unlawful market manipulation schemes. E-brokers who offer investment chat rooms face a variety of risks including liability risks, risks of SEC enforcement actions and risks of violating self regulatory organization (“SRO”) rules. -
What Are Message Boards and Chat Rooms?
HADl July 1999 Corporate Advisor www.CanWeChat.com On-line Message Boards Raise Numerous Questions As with much of the rest of our world, the by anyone who accesses the board. There are Internet is having a profound effect on the a number of specialized message boards that securities markets. Many institutional investors focus on investment-related topics, including are now using corporate Web sites as a primary Silicon Investor, The Motley Fool, and Yahoo! source for information about companies. Retail Finance. Some of these boards are open to the investors, empowered by on-line brokerage general public, while others are only available services, are becoming a more significant to subscribers. These message boards are stockholder base. In response to these trends, typically organized by company so that users companies are increasingly using the Internet can easily access all the messages posted about to communicate with investors. any company in which they have an interest. At the same time, institutional investors have “Chat rooms” are real-time versions of Companies are joined retail investors, short sellers and others message boards. In chat rooms, participants increasingly using in the “wild west” of on-line investing — can communicate with others who are logged Internet message boards and chat rooms. onto the service. the Internet to The growth of these forums raises a number Participants in message boards and chat communicate of questions for companies: rooms frequently conceal their identities, with investors • Should we respond to false rumors making it impossible for readers to assess posted on Internet message boards? the biases and motives underlying their messages. -
'Big Short' Investor Michael Burry Is Now Going Long on Gamestop
9/29/2019 ‘Big Short’ Investor Michael Burry Is Now Long on GameStop - Barron's MEDIA FEATURE ‘Big Short’ Investor Michael Burry Is Now Going Long on GameStop By Tae Kim Aug. 21, 2019 6:00 pm ET Michael Burry Photograph by Tony Avelar/Bloomberg Michael Burry, whose prescient bet against subprime mortgages before the financial crisis was depicted in the book and movie The Big Short, is making another contrarian call: going long shares of GameStop . GameStop’s “balance sheet is actually in very good shape,” Burry told Barron’s in a phone interview on Wednesday. “I believe they will have the cash flow to justify a much higher share price.” Burry, a major character in Michael Lewis’ best-selling The Big Short, was depicted by actor Christian Bale in the movie based on the book. The investor was among the first to bet against subprime mortgages using credit default swaps going into the financial crisis. He rarely talks to the press. On Monday, his firm, Scion Asset Management, revealed it had sent a letter to the board of GameStop (ticker: GME) urging the company to fully execute the $237.6 million remaining on its current $300 million share-buyback authorization. The statement also disclosed that Scion now owns three million shares of GameStop, or some 3% of shares outstanding. https://www.barrons.com/articles/big-short-investor-michal-burry-is-now-long-gamestop-51566424832?mod=article_inline 1/3 9/29/2019 ‘Big Short’ Investor Michael Burry Is Now Long on GameStop - Barron's GameStop shares have fallen 72% this year after a series of disappointing earnings reports and worries over its future in an increasingly digital- download dominated landscape.