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Infocusquarterly RUSSIA: INSIDE the ENIGMA VOL. 11 ISSUE 4 | FALL 2017 inFOCUSQUARTERLY RUSSIA: INSIDE THE ENIGMA Stephen Blank on How Russia Underachieves | Christopher Caldwell on Putin’s Rise | Ilya Levkov on Opposition to Putin | Nikolay Kozhanov on Russia's Middle East Policy | Ariel Cohen on U.S.-European Relations | Anders Åslund on Russia’s Economy | Paul M. Joyal on the Kremlin's Cyber Capabilities | Shoshana Bryen reviews The Invention of Russia Featuring an Interview with Brig. Gen. Kevin Ryan, USA (Ret.) LETTER FROM THE PUBLISHER n 1939, Winston Churchill said, “I can- Stephen Blank, Anders Åslund, not forecast to you the action of Russia. and Christopher Caldwell put Russian It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, in- politics, economics, and Vladimir Putin inFOCUS VOLUME 11 | ISSUE 4 side an enigma; but perhaps there is a himself, into their historic context. Ilya Publisher: Matthew Brooks I Editor: Shoshana Bryen key. That key is Russian national interest.” Levkov brings us up to date on domes- Associate Editor: Michael Johnson And yet, since the collapse of the tic divisions following anti-corruption Copy Editors: Eric Rozenman Soviet Union and the demise of com- demonstrations in the spring. Paul Joyal Shari Hillman munism in 1991, we in the West have discusses the effectiveness of Russia's Karen McCormick generally considered Russia a “normal” cyber warfare capabilities. Nikolay Kho- country - with elections, (relatively) free zunov considers Russian interests in the inFOCUS is published by the markets, a (relatively) free press, and rule Middle East; Ariel Cohen addresses NA- Jewish Policy Center, of law. Russian Jews – once the litmus test TO’s concerns. Shoshana Bryen reviews 50 F Street, NW, Suite 100 Washington, DC 20001. for Russian accountability The Invention of Russia by to Western norms – come Arkady Ostrovsky. (202) 638-2411 and go, doing business in And don’t miss our Follow us on Moscow while living in interview with Brigadier JewishPolicyCenter @theJPC Israel, Germany or New General Kevin Ryan, USA York. But Russia evolved (Ret.), former U.S. Defense The opinions expressed in inFOCUS do from a different place to Attaché in Moscow. not necessarily reflect those of the Jewish Policy Center, its board, or its officers. a different place. With- If you appreciate what out a merchant class, protected property you’ve read, I encourage you to make a To begin or renew your subscription, please rights, and the habit of law protecting contribution to the Jewish Policy Center. contact us: [email protected] the people from the government – not As always, you can use our secure site: © 2017 Jewish Policy Center protecting government assets from the http://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/donate WRITERS’ GUIDELINES people – the idea of Russia creating a 21st century Western-style capitalist state in a Sincerely, Essays must be 1,600 to 2,000 words matter of decades is as odd as imagining in length. Email submissions to info@ jewishpolicycenter.org. creating one in Iraq. Or Afghanistan. This issue of inFOCUS will bring you Matthew Brooks, www.JewishPolicyCenter.org Russia well grounded in its own roots, its Executive Director own history and its own peculiar view of the world. Perhaps then Russian national interest may emerge. STEPHEN BLANK, Ph.D., is a Senior Fellow at the Ameri- Resources and Geopolitics at the Institute for the Analysis of can Foreign Policy Council and a is a former MacArthur Global Security. (19) Fellow at the U.S. Army War College. (3) Featuring Brig. Gen. KEVIN RYAN, USA (Ret.) is Director of Defense and CHRISTOPHER CALDWELL is a senior editor at The Intelligence Projects at Harvard's Kennedy School Belfer Center Weekly Standard. (7) for Science and International Affairs. (22) ILYA LEVKOV is founding publisher of Liberty Publishing ANDERS ÅSLUND, Ph.D., is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Coun- House and a Russian-language syndicated columnist. (11) cil and served as economic advisor to the Russian government in the 1990s. (28) NIKOLAY KOZHANOV, Ph.D., is Visiting Lecturer at the Eu- ropean University in St. Petersburg, Russia and Academy PAUL M. JOYAL is managing director of law enforcement and Associate for the Russia and Eurasia Program at Cha- public safety practice at National Strategies (NSI). (32) tham House in London, England. (15) SHOSHANA BRYEN is the editor of inFOCUS and the Senior ARIEL COHEN, Ph.D., is Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Director of the Jewish Policy Center. (37) Council and Director of the Center for Energy, Natural Frozen in Backwardness: How Russia Underachieves by STEPHEN BLANK “Something else that is an extreme- essay offers a brief answer with the un- tsarist and Soviet patrimonialism as ly important thing and distinguishes derstanding that fully accounting for described by Steven Rosefielde and Ste- Russia from the other powers is that this phenomenon requires a much lon- fan Hedlund. Today’s Russia constitutes we have preserved the important re- ger composition and study. Stated brief- the latest replication of the patrimonial source of our historical heritage. With ly, the answer to this question is that state discerned by Max Weber and sub- all the revolutionary changes, its his- Russia’s political system and the culture sequent Russian and Western historians. torical matrix was reproduced.” – Vy- based upon it are at fault. Russia’s cul- Weber wrote: acheslav Nikonov, Russian politician ture is arguably a “frozen” one, to use and grandson of Vyacheslav Molotov the renowned anthropologist Claude Russia does not and cannot efficient- Levi-Strauss’ term. ly operate according to the neoclassi- “The dead hand of all the generations cal economic principles (democratic of the past weighs upon the brain of the ❚❚21st Century Neo-Tsarism free enterprise) claimed by many to living like a nightmare.” – Karl Marx Both Nikonov and Marx are right. assure its eventual entry into West- Russia has regressed to a neo-tsarist fac- utopia, a Shangri-la where everyone ackwardness has characterized simile with an admixture of Leninism completely and competitively maxi- Russia throughout its existence. that prevents it from moving forward mizes his and her utility in the pri- Repeated and often herculean – if and escaping its nightmare of autocratic vate, public (democracy) and civic Bnot also epically tragic – attempts rule. Many foreign and domestic com- (civil empowerment) domains. The to overcome this backwardness in a sin- mentators – from Richard Pipes in the institutions which thwart Russian gle bound have repeatedly failed, leaving 1970s to Ian Bremmer, Richard Hellie, Pareto optimality are – autocracy, Russia essentially as backward as it was before. This trajectory is the case today and will continue into the future. Thanks This system actually represents the antithesis of to Western sanctions and the structurally a market economy because there is neither an embedded defects of Russia’s economy, even if growth is occurring according unconditional right to private property under law, to Russian officials (whose testimony is nor any authority answerable to law. of dubious value) Russian economists admit that backwardness will last well into the 2020s ensuring another period of stagnation. Russia only returned to its Peter Baker, and Susan Glasser more primacy of autocratic freehold own- 1990 GDP in 2008 after the depression recently - have noticed this trend and ership, edict over constitution, the of the 1990s and the oil-driven boom af- its impact on the state. Not only do we supremacy of autocracy over private ter 1998-99, then to enter into what has see an autocratic ruler but we also see rights (hence servility), and primacy been another decade of virtually no net the trademark economic backwardness of command and administratively growth. We clearly are dealing with a re- of Russian history and state control of supervised rent-granting governance peated pattern of Russian history and an the economy vested in leader Vladimir over free enterprise, democracy and economy dominated by recurrent cycles Putin’s entourage. Indeed the state owns civil liberty. From the neoinstitu- of boom-and-bust. about 70 percent of the overall economy. tionalist perspective, Russian gover- But why does this pattern reassert Moreover the structure of the econo- nance (including the state, politics, itself with depressing monotony? This my bears a remarkable resemblance to economics, and civil society) boils Russia: Inside the Enigma | inFOCUS 3 down to autocratic rent-granting, Commonwealth of Independent States absolutism and breathes new life rent-seeking, rent-creating, rent- (CIS, also known as the Russian Com- into Louis XIV’s famous formula controlling, and rent-management monwealth) has long been slipping be- “The state is me.” It also brings the rather than individually empow- cause it is inherently uncompetitive. principle of a “controllable market” ered, complete and competitive util- to life: authorized bureaucrats (the ity seeking. new oligarchs) can manage state ❚❚The System is Corruption property almost like private prop- Patrimonialism means the Tsar Since power and property are fused, erty, whereas private owners (the old (Putin) owns the state and national as is the case under feudalism, the system oligarchs) must coordinate their ac- economy, while there are no property is not corrupt. Rather the system is cor- tions with the state. rights under law. Rather, property is held ruption. Consequently Putin’s cronies only on condition of state service. There- from the KGB, FSB, other police organs The resemblance of this to the Mus- fore there is no market, though there are or other forms of the “old school tie” have covite service state is obvious. individual markets, and there is no con- been granted or will gain control over lu- Thus experts see both rent-granting cept of property rights, human rights, or crative sectors of the economy for their and rent-seeking elites with resulting po- litical struggles among elites for control over rents, a preference for rent-seeking over investment, massive corruption, as- ...as Dmitry Trenin has said, “Russia is ruled by the set stripping and corporate raiding, etc.
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