“The Poverty Challenge of Bangsamoro” January 28, 2019
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“MAPping the Future” Column in the INQUIRER Volume 5 Issue No. 04 map.org.ph January 29, 2019 “MAPping the Future” Column in the INQUIRER “The Poverty Challenge of Bangsamoro” January 28, 2019 ROLANDO T. DY The Bangsamoro Organic Law or BOL (Republic Act No. 11054) was signed by President Duterte on July 23, 2018. The new law provides for the creation of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) or simply the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region. It covers the provinces of Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sulu, and Tawi-Tawi, the same provinces as ARMM. When fully operational in 2022, BARMM residents will elect an 80-member parliament. The members of the parliament will then elect a Chief Minister and two Deputy Chief Ministers among themselves. The Chief Minister shall also appoint members of his Cabinet. The Shari'ah courts will have jurisdiction over cases exclusively involving Muslims in the region. But since the election will only happen in May 2022, all will be appointed next year (once the BOL is ratified) by the President and their term will last till May 2022. This period is referred to as the “transition period” from ARMM to BARMM. Will the BOL usher the start of broad-based poverty reduction in the region? This is a key strategic question as high poverty hounds the region. In 2015, of the 3.7 million people, 2.0 million people (53.7 percent) were poor. In contrast, its neighbors, Soccsksargen and Zamboanga Peninsula have 37.3 percent and 33.9 percent, respectively, compared to the national average (excluding NCR) of 25.4 percent. Meanwhile, the Davao region reduced its poverty incidence to 22 percent in 2015 from 30.6 percent in 2006. Over the past 25 years, only ARMM posted rising poverty incidence as compared to all the geographic regions. ARMM’s poor population rose to 1.99 million in 2015 from 0.63 million in 1991, a three-fold increase. By comparison, Soccsksargen’s rose by 1.4x to 1.72 1 million from 1.2 million; and Zamboanga’s 1.4x to 1.27 million from 0.91 million. The national figure outside NCR barely increased. Poverty incidence (% of total population) 1991 2006 2009 2012 2015 ARMM 30.5 47.1 47.4 55.8 53.7 Socssksargen 53.3 39.7 38.3 44.7 37.3 Zamboanga Peninsula 40.3 45.0 45.8 40.1 33.9 Philippines, excluding NCR 38.8 29.7 29.6 28.2 25.4 Philippines 34.4 26.6 26.3 25.2 21.6 Source: Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) Despite its rich natural endowment, ARMM’s poverty reduction record is unfortunate. Many studies have identified the causes: poor governance, feudalism, clan feuds (rido), weak infrastructure, land disputes and, foremost, unstable peace and order. To provide a better picture of the region’s economic performance, let’s look at its dominant crops, farm productivity and industrial development, and compare them with the other regions. Land Use Palay, corn and coconut are dominant in the three regions. ARMM is behind in irrigation area ratio (24 percent) as compared to Zamboanga (58 percent) and Soccsksargen (78 percent). It is also behind in the adoption of yellow corn: 16 percent vs. eight percent and 71 percent, respectively. It is slightly less diversified. Land Use, 2015 Harvested areas ARMM Zamboanga Soccsksargen Philippines Rice: irrigated, percent 24 58 78 69 Yellow corn, adoption rate, percent 16 8 71 51 Source: PSA Dominant Crops, 2015 Share to total of six crops, in percent Palay Corn Coconut Others Total Area, ha ARMM 22 32 37 9 890,236 Soccsksargen 32 39 18 11 1,070,768 Zamboanga 20 16 51 13 826,070 Other Crops: banana, coffee, rubber Source: PSA 2 Yields Palay yield is low in ARMM at 2.5 tons/ha as compared to Zamboanga 4.0 tons/ha and Soccsksargen 3.8 tons/ha. It is better than Zamboanga in corn. Meanwhile, it rails Soccsksargen in coconut banana, rubber and coffee. But it is ahead of Zamboanga in coconut. Farm productivity, Major Crops, Long-Term Tons per hectare 1991 2015 ARMM Soccsksargen Zamboanga ARMM Soccsksargen Zamboanga Palay 1.9 3.2 3.0 2.5 3.8 4.0 -Irrigated 2.6 3.7 3.4 3.3 4.1 4.5 - Rainfed 1.5 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.9 3.4 Corn 1.6 2.2 0.9 2.4 3.0 1.7 -Yellow 1.7 2.5 1.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 -White 1.6 2.0 0.9 2.2 1.9 1.5 Coconut 3.9 6.2 2.9 4.2 6.0 4.0 Banana 9.2 19.0 11.6 15.7 35.3 14.6 Rubber dry 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 Coffee, 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 green beans Source: PSA Industrial Development ARMM’s share of manufacturing to gross regional domestic product (GRDP) is comparatively low. In 2017, Soccsksargen and Zamboanga had manufacturing shares to GRDP of 20.5 percent and 20.7 percent while ARMM had only one percent, the lowest among the 15 regions outside Metro Manila (MM). The manufacturing sector provides stable and remunerative jobs. But agro-industries can only flourish by investing in productive and diversified agriculture value chains. Takeaways In order to reduce the high poverty, BARMM must confront the low farm productivity and diversify its economy. But massive poverty cannot be solely explained by low yields. There could be inequalities in the sharing of fruits due to unequal control of the means of production by the ruling elite. Where to? 3 • It is imperative for the BARMM state government to attract domestic and foreign investors. One way to do this is to resolve the land tenure issue because of the proliferation of overlapping land claims in the region. • Farm land consolidation a la Malaysia Federal Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation Authority (FELCRA) business model will achieve scale, high yield and incomes. • Investing in infrastructure to open new areas for development. • Finally, a professionalized civil service would provide competence and continuity in development planning and management. The pernicious practice of palakasan common among local government units must be avoided. There are many competent Muslims in MM but are hesitant to return to their roots. (This article reflects the personal opinion of the author and does not reflect the official stand of the Management Association of the Philippines or MAP. The author is the Co-Vice Chair of the MAP AgriBusiness Committee and the Executive Director of the Center for Food and AgriBusiness of the University of Asia & the Pacific. Feedback at <[email protected]> and <[email protected]>. For previous articles, please visit <map.org.ph>) “MAP Insights” Column in BUSINESSWORLD Benchmarking Global Hunger in ASEAN: Where is the Philippines? January 29, 2019 ROLANDO T. DY What is the score of global hunger in ASEAN? The Global Hunger Organization just released its 2018 results. The Global Hunger Index (GHI) has four indicators: 1. Undernourishment: the share of the population that is undernourished (i.e., whose caloric intake is insufficient); 2. Child wasting: the share of children under the age of five who are wasted (i.e., who have low weight for their height, reflecting acute undernutrition); 3. Child stunting: the share of children under the age of five who are stunted (i.e., who have low height for their age, reflecting chronic undernutrition); and 4. Child mortality: the mortality rate of children under the age of five (in part, a reflection of the fatal mix of inadequate nutrition and unhealthy environments). “A GHI value of 0 would mean that a country had no undernourished people in the population, no children younger than five who were wasted or stunted, and no children who died before their fifth birthday. A value of 100 would signify that a country’s undernourishment, child wasting, child stunting, and child mortality levels were each at approximately the highest levels observed worldwide in recent decades. (https://www.globalhungerindex.org/). 4 This comparison will hopefully alert policy makers and politicians on the extent of hunger in the Philippines. The analysis focuses on the ASEAN countries with large population – Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Myanmar. Peru was added as comparator as it has a great record in hunger reduction. Overall In the past 18 years, Myanmar led with a massive decline in GHI between 2000 and 2018, followed by Vietnam. Thailand was next. Indonesia and the Philippines had the highest GHI in 2018, followed by Myanmar. Overall trends in GHI: Selected countries, various years Change 2018- Country 2000 2005 2010 2018 2000 %-pts Thailand 18.3 13.3 12.9 10.4 -7.9 Malaysia 15.5 13.0 11.9 13.3 -2.2 Vietnam 28.2 23.8 18.8 16.0 -12.2 Myanmar 44.0 36.0 25.9 20.1 -23.9 Philippines 25.9 21.6 20.6 20.2 -5.7 Indonesia 25.5 26.6 24.5 21.9 -3.7 Comparator Peru 20.9 18.4 15.5 8.8 -12.1 Source: GHI GHI 2018: Hunger severity of selected countries, 2018 Country Global rank GHI Remarks Thailand 44 10.4 Moderate Malaysia 57 13.3 Moderate Vietnam 64 16.0 Moderate Myanmar 68 20.1 Serious Philippines 69 20.2 Serious Indonesia 73 21.9 Serious Comparator Peru 35 8.8 Low Note: Rank out of 113 countries GHI ranges: 9.9 or less: low; 10 to 19.9 moderate; 20 to 34.9 serious; and 35 to 49.9 alarming Source: GHI 5 GHI Indicators ASEAN countries had mixed performances across the GHI indicators.