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Southeast Asia CONFIDENTIAL August 2017 Ecommerce in Asia – broad perspectives CONFIDENTIAL We are pleased to present our 2017 Asia ecommerce industry overview ▪ In the following slides we have synthesized our views on the key themes in ecommerce in Asia ▪ ComCap is a premier boutique investment bank focused on the intersection of commerce and capital, with key subsectors including B2C ecommerce, B2B SaaS, B2B services for retail (IT and marketing services, fulfillment and logistics and call center), payments, marketplaces and digitally native virtual brands ▪ Headquartered in San Francisco with a presence in Singapore, our firm works with mid-cap public companies on buyside initiatives, and with public and private growth companies on equity financings and strategic M&A ▪ In addition to being the only boutique focused exclusively on disruptive commerce models, we differentiate by bringing bulge bracket techniques to emerging models, a strong and uncommon buyside/strategy practice, deep understanding of industry drivers and synergy analyses, deep relationships across the sector and worldwide coverage with closed transactions in the United States, Japan, China, the ASEAN region, Western and Eastern Europe and Latin America ▪ If you'd like to connect with us over the phone and / or meet in person to discuss your strategic initiatives, please contact us: Aron Bohlig Managing Partner M: +1 415-235-8270 Steve Terry Matt Nemer E: [email protected] Managing Director Managing Director Swetha Vijay Director M: +65 9326-4726 Fermin Caro Carlos Gonzalez E: [email protected] Director Director 2 $ refers to United States Dollar; icons source: flaticons and other free sources CONFIDENTIAL Index 1 Ecommerce overview 2 ComCap overview 3 Appendix A: Trading companies and transaction precedents 4 Appendix B: Logistics landscape 3 CONFIDENTIAL 1 Ecommerce in Asia overview CONFIDENTIAL Ecommerce in Asia – Key themes for 2017 High potential for ecommerce growth owing to a growing middle class and low % of total retail 1 spend 2 Mobile & social ecommerce is expected to dominate, disrupting desktop ecommerce 3 Simultaneous evolution of B2C, B2B, C2C and Brands.com in Southeast Asia 4 Increasing omnichannel deployment as ecommerce matures Emerging strong payment platforms replacing the traditional Cash-on-Delivery 5 model 6 Amazon and Alibaba face-off in India (and Southeast Asia?) 7 Last mile delivery and logistics are key to ecommerce growth especially in emerging Asia 8 Further market consolidation expected owing to competition, price pressure and other factors 5 CONFIDENTIAL 1 High potential for ecommerce growth owing to a growing middle class and low % of total retail spend Global ecommerce expected to be $4T by 2020 Asia, and China, are expected to account for a lion’s share of ecommerce market and growth 4.5 16 4 14 Global Asia Pacific 3.5 Europe Asia-Pacific 12 28% 37% ASEAN 3 18% 10 2.5 8 South Korea 2 (%) 5% ($ ($ in trillion) 6 1.5 India MENA China 4 9% 1 3% 50% 0.5 2 Japan and Others 18% 0 0 2015 2016(E) 2017(E) 2018(E) 2019(E) 2020(E) USA 32% ($ in trillion) % of total retail sales Source: Trelis Ecommerce accounts for a low % of total retail spend – Middle class in Asia expected grow at 571% high potential for India & Southeast Asia 19% 17% $11.1 Asia Pacific 14% Europe $32.9 $5.6 $8.1 +571% North America growth $5.5 $4.9 8.1% 7% $0.4 $1.5 $3.3 Sub-Saharan Africa $0.6 $0.9 Central/ 4% Middle East and $2.2 South America North Africa 1.7% Middle class consumer spending Outer ring: 2030E in trillions, USD; Inner ring: 2009 in trillions, USD UK USA China India South Korea Japan ASEAN Source: EY Report, Statistica, eMarketer, Trelis and other news sources 6 CONFIDENTIAL 2 Mobile & social ecommerce is expected to dominate, disrupting desktop ecommerce Asia’s internet penetration has increased by 50% Over 60% of online purchase in Singapore, Malaysia, during 2010-15 Vietnam and the Philippines are made on mobile phone 100 North-America Latin-America Europe 75 India China Singapore 50 (%) 39 Malaysia 34.6 Vietnam 28 30.7 22.5 25.2 Philippines 25 Indonesia Thailand 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Mobile Phone Other online devices ASEAN Internet Penetration (%) Asia Internet Penetration (%) USA Internet Penetration (%) China Internet Penetration (%) Emerging India and Southeast Asia is getting tech savvy Select mobile & social ecommerce players* ✓ The average Singapore & Thai user has 1.4 mobile phones Mobile: ✓ Post introduction of 3G, Thailand surpassed USA and China in mobile internet penetration ✓ Mobile internet users in the Philippines have highest social- media activity in the world Social*: ✓ 2.4% of world’s Twitter posts come from Jakarta ✓ Vietnam is the the world’s third-fastest growing smartphone market, after India and Turkey Most ecommerce players have a mobile ✓ Over 75% of Flipkart and Snapdeal’s traffic is mobile. The or a mobile suitable lite web version figure is 85% for Zomato and Swiggy and 100% for Carousell and Lyke Source: Bain Report, Nielsen Report, Jefferies Report on E-Commerce In ASEAN, Internetlivestats;*Includes Global Players 7 CONFIDENTIAL 3 Simultaneous evolution of B2C, B2B, C2C and Brands.com A common evolution trajectory in many economies has been C2C,B2C and ultimately Brand.com. But in Southeast Asia, all have grown simultaneously and fast B2B C2C B2C Brands.com Global: Global: Global: Global: ThomasNet Etsy, OLX, Amazon Adidas Craigslist, eBay Asia: L’oreal, Asia: Sephora Power2SME.com Asia: FlipKart, Estee Lauder JustByLive.com OLX, Snapdeal Clinique IndustryBuying.com Forevershop Myntra Flipkart Infibeam.com MAC ASEAN: Jabong.com ASEAN: Indotrading.com Redmart, Lazada, Asia: Ralali.com, ASEAN: Traveloka, Raymonds Tradekey.com Carousell, Zalora, GrabTaxi, Louis Philippe Lamido Mataharimall • B2B ecommerce is • C2C ecommerce, • 28% growth in • Brands are looking expected to be twice as big estimated to be anywhere B2C ecommerce into quick as B2C by 2020 from one-third to half of sales in Asia expansion in the • Southeast Asia is proving total ecommerce GMV. which is expected ASEAN region in to be a fertile trading Majority of C2C in to continue for the order to meet the ground for millions of small Southeast Asia actually next several years rapid ecommerce businesses which will happens on social growth serve to boost B2B platforms facilitated by ecommerce revenues in conversations on the region messaging apps Source: news articles, ComCap analysis 8 CONFIDENTIAL 4 Increased omnichannel deployment as ecommerce matures Omnichannel offers seamless multiple purchase/contact points for consumers, especially in times of retail footprint decline Retail Retail Customers who used 4+ channels spent 9% more Online Social in the store, on Online Social average, when compared to those who used just one channel Omnichannel Multichannel Omnichannel International Omnichannel success case studies shoppers logged 23% more repeat Research online, buy shopping • Virtual try-on system in which online, 15% trips customers can upload pictures of their Research in a shop, faces and overlay different frames onto Research in a buy online shop, buy in a their photos 12% shop behaviour Southeast Asia: Customer Research online, 50% Online sales • “Home Try-On” sampling program buy in a shop 23% account for 4% of which allows customers to order 5 • Since 2009, John Lewis has implemented a successful click-and- $150B retail frames free of charge and keep them for collect purchasing option enabling customers to purchase online and market 5 days collect from store • Stores and Online complement each • Currently, 60%+ customers purchase from online AND store other: Website sales with origins in the India: Online store trading areas increased by about • Online accounted for 40% of total sales during the Dec-16 holiday sales account for 3.5% 2.5% of $941B season (with 37% from mobile). Over 50% customers used click-and- collect for the same period retail market (to • Warby Parker’s stores helped to increase be 5% of $1.6T in total system sales by 9% in the locations • Despite the slowdown in retail sales by 1%, the relatively substantial 2020) within the trading area of the stores growth of online sales has caused a 4.5% growth in overall sales Source: MIT research, internetretailing.net, independent.co.uk article, other news sources 9 CONFIDENTIAL 5 Emerging strong payment platforms replacing the traditional Cash-on-Delivery (COD) model India and Southeast Asia (Especially Indonesia) had the eWallets to grow market share globally highest % of COD transactions 74% 60% 46% 33% 30% 30% 26% 21% 21% 20% 14% 14% 10% 8% 8% 7% 8% 5% 4% 2% 4% North Latin MENA Asia India China ASEAN North Latin Amercia MENA Asia Pacific China India ASEAN America America Pacific America 2014 2019 Popular Mobile Payment methods in Asia • Mobile payment adoption in Southeast Asia will increase over the next 5 years due to: ✓ Increased smartphone penetration ✓ Increasing investment in digital infrastructure ✓ A growing trust in payment and tehnology intersection ✓ Favourable government policies • Tremendous potential for a cashless society, as mobile payments are mostly being used for low-ticket items but this will move to larger purchases Source: Worldpay Report, news sources 10 CONFIDENTIAL 6 Amazon and Alibaba face-off in India (and Southeast Asia?) • Invested more than $2B in the Indian • Had plans to enter the South East Asia market and plans to invest $3B more markets in Q1 2017 but delayed it in • Close second to Flipkart favor if expanding to Australia first • Acquired Emvantage for an undisclosed • Has now launched Prime Now in the amount to develop its Indian e-commerce last week of July 2017 site’s payment platform • 16 was a great year for Amazon in India. According to the 2016 Forrester Data Consumer Technographics Asia Pacific Online Benchmark Survey, Amazon surpassed Flipkart as the preferred online retail destination for metropolitan Indian consumers for the first time since 2014.
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