POLICY BRIEF 67 | SEPTEMBER 2014

Elections in A smooth journey, or a hurdle to skip? Nelson Alusala

Summary Recommendations Mozambique’s fifth democratic election is due to take place in October 2014. Until June 2014, it appeared as if Renamo would escalate its armed Mozambicans should carefully 1take stock of the potential resistance against Frelimo, the ruling party, because of alleged unfulfilled post-election security challenges terms of the 1992 peace agreement. Now it emerges that Renamo has that the country may face, a renewed interest in a negotiated ceasefire to enable its leader, Afonso especially with regard to the Dhlakama, to participate as a presidential candidate. Within this positive opposition parties. development, it is crucial to ensure that the newly established peace Both the government and continues after the election. The stakeholders of the political process must 2 Renamo should renounce consider potential post-election security challenges: especially the reaction armed violence and commit to of the opposition parties. Whether Renamo wins or loses, the parties the outcome of the ongoing negotiations with a clear ought to put measures in place that would respond to the demands of disarmament and reintegration remaining Renamo rebels in a sustainable manner. process for Renamo rebels.

A peaceful outcome in the THE MOZAMBICAN presidential election, candidates2 had met all the legal 3 forthcoming election could due to take place in October 2014, is an requirements.3 The candidates are former save lives and possibly result in a important moment in a tenuous peace defence minister (Frelimo), post-conflict peace and process. Until June 2014, it appeared as (Renamo) and Daviz reconstruction roadmap for the if the Mozambican National Resistance Simango, the leader of the Movimento entire country. (Resistência Nacional Moçambicana, Democrático de Moçambique (MDM), or Renamo) would escalate its armed Afonso Dhlakama should who is also the mayor of Beira. MDM is resistance against the ruling Frente de 4 show leadership and character, a splinter party of Renamo.4 To a certain even if it becomes apparent Libertação de Moçambique (or Frelimo) extent, this removes the uncertainty about that he might be defeated in the for what Renamo claims to be unfulfilled the candidates in the presidential race. forthcoming election. terms of the 1992 peace agreement.1 In all aspects, the parties The country’s citizens and investors, The tenuous march should agree on some form of locally and internationally, are no doubt 5 towards the election security guarantee to ensure post- keenly following the election and hoping conflict peacebuilding processes On 4 August 2014, Mozambique’s for a smooth transition. Such a success are preserved. Constitutional Council confirmed that will not only demonstrate the country’s only three of the 11 potential presidential democratic progress that started with the policy brief

first election in 1994, but also reassure In contrast to some of his peers on property before negotiation can even be investors that their interests will be the continent, President Guebuza has considered as an option. preserved in the future. Economically, a resisted the temptation to postpone It is therefore possible that if both sides successful election will be a major turning the election until the security situation embrace diplomacy, the outcome point for a country where large mineral has been stabilised; if sustained, could save lives and possibly result in a deposits were recently discovered.5 this determination would mark the roadmap for the disarmament of Renamo, difference between Mozambique’s The Southern African Development once and for all. Should this milestone democratic maturity and the political Community (SADC) will no doubt be achieved, it would effectively mark the opprobrium that his peers face welcome a transparent, timely and termination of the consequences of the elsewhere on the continent. peaceful election in Mozambique, age-old civil war and herald the start of especially so shortly after successful Underlying the promise to keep to a new era of prosperity for Mozambique. elections in neighbouring the election timetable is a number It is an opportunity that all the political and Malawi (the latter having overcome of challenges that the country’s parties in Mozambique must embrace. challenges that almost marred its leadership (both the ruling party and the Mozambique should expect a stable presidential elections). Most importantly, opposition) must overcome to ensure post-election environment, but it should the election will be an indication of a peaceful process and a prosperous Mozambique. There are two major also prepare for a negative outcome. President Armando Guebuza’s ability to practical hurdles. The first of these is It has taken more than 60 rounds safeguard the legacy of his predecessor, how the country will balance the ideals of negotiations between the Frelimo former president . of a democracy with the interests of an government and Renamo to agree on the Historical rivalries between the ruling armed former rebel group that is set modalities for the cessation of hostilities Frelimo and its rebel-led archrival, to use both the bullet and the ballot and the integration of former Renamo Renamo, had again flared up prior to the to achieve its own agenda. President rebels into the defence and security ongoing negotiations that are linked to the Guebuza’s legacy largely depends on forces and others into the community.9 run-up to the fifth presidential election. how he will navigate this dual challenge, Hopefully it does not take another 60 From early 2013, Renamo staged random especially because Afonso Dhlakama is attempts before the outcome of the armed attacks against government forces also a presidential candidate. negotiations is successfully implemented. in the country’s central provinces of Sofala and Inhambane, amidst negotiations to end the hostilities.6 The situation If both sides embrace diplomacy, the outcome could threatened not only the country’s socio- save lives and possibly result in a roadmap for the economic stability but also the political stability of the SADC region as a whole. disarmament of Renamo, once and for all

President Guebuza’s initial assurance that the election in Mozambique would In the interest of Mozambique’s stability, It is imperative that Renamo, if it is proceed regardless of the outcome of the the ‘bullet option’ was never going to be serious about a peaceful Mozambique, negotiations between his government a relevant one in addressing any of the must remain forthright in its democratic and Renamo was a clear indication of his grievances that Renamo may have had ideals, as it has been in this instance. It determination to pursue diplomacy and against the government, no matter how should renounce an armed struggle and not war – a declaration that affirmed the serious and valid those grievances might abide by an established, transparent government’s determination to put the 8 have been. The positive side of things, disarmament process. Dhlakama should interests of the country ahead of personal however, was that although it was show leadership and character even if and/or party interests.7 Unlike what has armed, Renamo continued to engage it becomes apparent that he might be happened in some other African the government in negotiations until defeated in the forthcoming election. countries, President Guebuza has thus a ceasefire agreement was reached. far not used the on-going strife between This is a rare occurrence for an internal The manner in which the government his government and Renamo to either conflict in Africa. Often the parties have has dealt with the renewed resistance by stall the election process or extend his to wage a lengthy (civil) war marked former Renamo rebels is commendable. term in office. by colossal loss of life and damage to Despite having the ability and enough

2 : a smooth journey, or a hurdle to skip? reason to launch an assault on the the outcome document that will ensure impacting on the country’s socio- Renamo stronghold, the Mozambican a sustainable peace after the election. economic development. As Mozambicans government has carefully avoided If Frelimo and Renamo agreed on some go to the polls, they should know that the contributing to internal conflict, thereby form of security guarantees, it would entire continent stands behind them as lessening the possibility for a relapse into form an effective strategy for the post- they make their choice. civil war. election peacebuilding process. One of Notes A peaceful election will also depend on the ways of doing this is for the SADC 1 N Alusala, Renamo’s armed activities: it’s time to secretariat to act as a security guarantor whether the ongoing negotiations, which find a solution, 11 July 2014, www.issafrica.org/ are entirely dependent on the goodwill of the negotiations. For instance, the iss-today/renamos-armed-activities-its-time-to- of all the parties, manage to deliver a government of Mozambique could entrust find-a-solution. 2 All Africa, Mozambique: Nyusi, Dhlakama and long-term solution to the political impasse a certain percentage of the revenue from Simango confirmed as candidates, 5 August between Frelimo and Renamo. This its natural resources for a set period 2014, allafrica.com/stories/201408060266. represents the second hurdle that needs of time to the trusteeship of the SADC html?aa_source=acrdn-f0#ixzz39ibQZan6. to be overcome. secretariat to support post-election 3 NSNBC International, Mozambique: 35 parties and coalition groups registered for elections, 21 May 2014, nsnbc.me/2014/05/21/mozambique- 35-parties-and-coalition-groups-registerd-for- If Frelimo and Renamo agreed on some form of security elections/. 4 L Mwiti, Vibrant emerging ‘middle class’ parties guarantees, it would form an effective strategy for the threaten old order in Mozambique, Angola, 23 July 2014, mgafrica.com/article/2014-07-23- post-election peacebuilding process vibrant-middle-class-parties-threaten-to-upset- established-order-in-mozambique-angola. 5 PriceWaterhouseCoopers, From promise There are two practical situations that confidence-building measures (CBMs).10 to performance – Africa oil and gas review: Report on current developments in the oil and seem obvious and which all the parties to This is just one possible way of mitigating gas industry in Africa, June 2013, www.pwc. the negotiations should be prepared to possible post-election violence.11 co.za/en_ZA/za/assets/pdf/africa-oil-and-gas- deal with after the election. Firstly, there review-2013.pdf. may not be sufficient time, between now Conclusion 6 All Africa, Mozambique: government forces, Renamo men clash in southern, central and the time of the election, for the former The situation could develop into two main Mozambique, 28 July 2014, allafrica.com/ Renamo rebels to disarm satisfactorily. possible scenarios: first, the ongoing stories/201407301101.html?aa_source=useful- column. Serious consideration must be given to negotiations between the parties could what the implications of this would be on 7 All Africa, Mozambique: Elections Will Go Ahead lead to a solid peace agreement with Regardless of Renamo, 16 June 2014, allafrica. the post-election peace and security of integrated CBMs, and subsequently com/stories/201406162347.html. the country. Secondly, it is highly probable result in the cessation of armed activities 8 N Alusala, Renamo’s armed activities: it’s time to that only one political party may emerge find a solution, 11 July 2014, www.issafrica.org/ and therefore a peaceful election. This is iss-today/renamos-armed-activities-its-time-to- victorious in the election and therefore the wish of all peace-loving Mozambicans find-a-solution. form the next government. Should this and should as much as possible not 9 All Africa, Mozambique: government forces, be the case, will the other parties readily Renamo men clash in southern, central only be supported by Mozambican concede defeat, or will they take up arms? Mozambique, 28 July 2014, allafrica.com/ political parties, but also by neighbouring stories/201407301101.html?aa_source=useful- Both these situations raise the question countries and the international column. of how the parties would ensure that the community at large. This scenario would 10 CBMs are agreements between parties on information exchange and verification of military spirit of the outcome of the negotiations also signify a formal end to the after- forces and armaments. CBMs contribute to is not jeopardised in the post-election effects of the 16-year civil war that ended transparency in military and political activities. They can be used to establish rules regarding period. For instance, what would the with the 1992 Rome peace agreement. the movement of military forces, as well as implications be should Renamo renege The second scenario is that the on-going mechanisms for verifying compliance with such on the pre-election pact if it senses that it rules. Such agreements are meant to build negotiations do not yield fruit, which trust among the conflicting parties and limit will be defeated in the election? Could it would lead to the election being held escalation. resume war? in an atmosphere of armed hostilities 11 H Higgins, Applying confidence-building measures in a regional context, http://isis- To prevent this from happening, the parties perpetuated by Renamo rebels. This may online.org/uploads/conferences/documents/ need to establish built-in mechanisms in lead to post-election instability, negatively higginspaper.pdf.

POLICY BRIEF 67 • SEPTEMBER 2014 3 POLICY BRIEF

About the author ISS Pretoria Nelson Alusala is a research consultant at the Institute for Security Studies. Block C, Brooklyn Court 361 Veale Street He previously worked for the United Nations Group of Experts on the New Muckleneuk Democratic Republic of the Congo. He has also undertaken research Pretoria, South Africa on disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration in various contexts in Tel: +27 12 346 9500 Africa, including in Mozambique and Liberia. He remains engaged in similar Fax: +27 12 460 0998 initiatives in the continent’s Great Lakes region. [email protected]

ISS Addis Ababa 5th Floor, Get House About the ISS Building, Africa Avenue Addis Ababa, Ethiopia The Institute for Security Studies is an African organisation that aims Tel: +251 11 515 6320 to enhance human security on the continent. It does independent and Fax: +251 11 515 6449 authoritative research, provides expert policy analysis and advice, and [email protected] delivers practical training and technical assistance. ISS Dakar 4th Floor, Immeuble Atryum Route de Ouakam Acknowledgements Dakar, Senegal Tel: +221 33 860 3304/42 The ISS is grateful for support from the following members of the ISS Fax: +221 33 860 3343 Partnership Forum: the governments of Australia, Canada, Denmark, [email protected] Finland, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the United States. ISS Nairobi Braeside Gardens off Muthangari Road Lavington, Nairobi, Kenya Tel: +254 20 266 7208 Fax: +254 20 386 1639 [email protected]

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